The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross | TED

Translator: Arinta Puspitasari Reviewer: Gita Arimanda

I'm really excited to share with you

Saya sangat senang berbagi dengan Anda

some findings that really surprise me

beberapa temuan yang sangat mengejutkan

about what makes companies succeed the most,

tentang hal utama yang mendorong suksesnya perusahaan,

what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

faktor yang paling menentukan kesuksesan perusahaan startup.

I believe that the startup organization

Saya percaya organisasi startup

is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

adalah salah satu cara terbaik untuk menciptakan dunia yang lebih baik.

If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

Bila Anda memberi insentif ekuitas yang tepat pada sekelompok orang

and organize them in a startup,

dan mengatur mereka dalam startup,

you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

Anda dapat membuka potensi manusia yang dulunya tidak mungkin.

You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

Anda mendorong mereka meraih hal-hal yang tidak mungkin.

But if the startup organization is so great,

Namun, bila organisasi startup demikian hebatnya,

why do so many fail?

mengapa banyak yang gagal?

That's what I wanted to find out.

Inilah yang ingin saya ketahui.

I wanted to find out what actually matters most

Saya ingin tahu apa yang paling berperan

for startup success.

dalam kesuksesan startup.

And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

Saya ingin mencari tahu secara sistematis,

avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

menghindari insting dan salah persepsi yang mungkin saya miliki

from so many companies I've seen over the years.

dari banyak perusahaan yang saya temui beberapa tahun ini.

I wanted to know this

Saya ingin tahu

because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

karena saya memulai usaha sejak berumur 12 tahun

when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

ketika saya berjualan permen di halte bus saat SMP,

to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

dan di SMA, saat saya membuat panel surya,

to college, when I made loudspeakers.

saat kuliah, saya membuat pengeras suara.

And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

Saat lulus kuliah, saya memulai usaha perangkat lunak.

Dan 20 tahun yang lalu, saya memulai Idealab,

And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

dan dalam 20 tahun terakhir,

and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

kami membuat lebih dari 100 perusahaan,

many successes, and many big failures.

banyak yang sukses, dan banyak yang gagal total.

We learned a lot from those failures.

Kami belajar banyak dari kegagalan itu.

So I tried to look across what factors

Jadi, saya coba mengamati faktor apa

accounted the most for company success and failure.

yang paling berpengaruh pada kegagalan dan kesuksesan perusahaan.

So I looked at these five.

Saya melihat kelima hal ini.

First, the idea.

Pertama, ide.

I used to think that the idea was everything.

Dulu saya berpikir bahwa segalanya tergantung pada ide.

I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

Nama perusahaan saya "Idealab" karena saya amat memuja

the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

momen "aha!" saat kita pertama kali mendapatkan ide.

But then over time,

Tapi kemudian saya berpikir bahwa

I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

mungkin tim, eksekusi, kemampuan adaptasi,

that mattered even more than the idea.

lebih penting daripada ide.

I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

Saya tak pernah terpikir akan mengutip petinju Mike Tyson di panggung TED,

but he once said,

tapi ia pernah berkata,

"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

"Semua orang punya rencana, sampai mereka ditinju di mukanya." (Tertawa)

And I think that's so true about business as well.

Dan saya pikir, itu benar sekali, termasuk dalam bisnis.

So much about a team's execution

Keberhasilan tim sangat bergantung pada

is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

kemampuan beradaptasi terhadap pukulan ke muka yang dilayangkan klien.

The customer is the true reality.

Klien adalah realitas sebenarnya.

And that's why I came to think

Dan karena itulah saya berpikir

that the team maybe was the most important thing.

bahwa mungkin yang paling penting adalah tim.

Then I started looking at the business model.

Lalu saya melihat model bisnis.

Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

Apakah perusahaan punya strategi yang jelas untuk menarik klien?

That started rising to the top in my thinking

Saya mulai berpikir apakah model bisnis

about maybe what mattered most for success.

yang paling berperan dalam kesuksesan.

Then I looked at the funding.

Lalu saya melihat pendanaan.

Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

Terkadang perusahaan mendapat banyak dana.

Maybe that's the most important thing?

Mungkinkah itu yang terpenting?

And then of course, the timing.

Dan tentu saja, waktu.

Apa idenya muncul terlalu cepat dan dunia belum siap menerima?

Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

Apa terlalu cepat, Anda terlalu maju dan perlu mengedukasi dunia?

Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

Apa waktunya tepat?

Is it just right?

Atau terlambat, dan sudah terlalu banyak kompetitor?

Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

Jadi saya memperhatikan kelima faktor ini dengan seksama

So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

di berbagai perusahaan.

across many companies.

And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

Dan saya melihat seratus perusahaan Idealab,

dan seratus perusahaan non-Idealab

and 100 non-Idealab companies

to try and come up with something scientific about it.

dan berupaya mendapat kesimpulan yang ilmiah tentangnya.

So first, on these Idealab companies,

Jadi, pertama, dari perusahaan Idealab,

the top five companies --

lima perusahaan teratas --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

semuanya meraih sukses milyaran dolar.

those all became billion-dollar successes.

And the five companies on the bottom --

Dan lima perusahaan terbawah --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

kami berharap banyak, tapi mereka tidak sukses.

So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

Jadi saya memberi peringkat masing-masing perusahaan

how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

berdasarkan faktor-faktor tadi.

And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

Lalu, bagi perusahaan non-Idealab, saya mencari perusahaan yang sukses besar,

like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

seperti Airbnb dan Instagram dan Uber dan Youtube dan LinkedIn.

Dan beberapa yang gagal:

And some failures:

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Flooz and Friendster.

Flooz and Friendster.

The bottom companies had intense funding,

Perusahaan terbawah punya banyak dana,

they even had business models in some cases,

beberapa bahkan punya bisnis model,

but they didn't succeed.

tapi tidak berhasil.

I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

Saya coba melihat faktor apa yang paling berpengaruh

for success and failure across all of these companies,

bagi kesuksesan dan kegagalan mereka,

dan hasilnya sangatlah mengejutkan.

and the results really surprised me.

The number one thing was timing.

Yang paling berpengaruh adalah waktu.

Timing accounted for 42 percent

Waktu berperan sebesar 42 persen

of the difference between success and failure.

dalam menentukan sukses dan kegagalan.

Team and execution came in second,

Tim dan eksekusi adalah yang kedua,

and the idea,

dan ide,

the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

ide yang lain dari yang lain, keunikan sebuah ide,

berada di peringkat ketiga.

that actually came in third.

Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

Nah, ini bukan formula absolut,

it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

bukan berarti ide tidaklah penting,

tapi yang paling mengejutkan ialah bahwa ide bukanlah yang paling penting.

but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

Terkadang yang lebih penting adalah ketepatan waktu.

Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

Dua yang terakhir, model bisnis dan dana, masuk akal bagi saya.

The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

Model bisnis mungkin peringkatnya lebih rendah karena

I think business model makes sense to be that low

Anda bisa mulai tanpa model bisnis

because you can start out without a business model

dan menambahkannya ketika kebutuhannya muncul.

and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

Dan pendanaan juga sama,

And funding, I think as well,

kalau di awal dana Anda kurang, namun Anda berkembang baik,

if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

terutama di masa kini,

menggalang dana tidak begitu sulit.

especially in today's age,

it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

Saya akan memberikan beberapa contoh spesifik untuk Anda.

So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

Mari lihat keberhasilan Airbnb yang semua orang tahu.

So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

Perusahaan itu dulu terkenal tidak ditengok banyak investor handal

Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

karena orang berpikir,

because people thought,

"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

"Takkan ada yang mau menyewakan rumahnya pada orang tak dikenal."

Of course, people proved that wrong.

Tentu saja, mereka terbukti salah.

But one of the reasons it succeeded,

Tapi, salah satu hal yang mendukung kesuksesannya,

aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

disamping model bisnis yang baik, ide dan eksekusi yang baik,

is the timing.

adalah waktu.

That company came out right during the height of the recession

Perusahaan ini muncul di puncak resesi

when people really needed extra money,

saat orang memerlukan uang tambahan

and that maybe helped people overcome

yang mungkin membantu mengatasi

their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

keberatan mereka menyewakan rumahnya pada orang asing.

Same thing with Uber.

Sama seperti Uber.

Uber came out,

Ketika Uber keluar,

incredible company, incredible business model,

perusahaannya hebat, model bisnisnya hebat,

eksekusinya juga.

great execution, too.

Tapi waktunya sangat sempurna

But the timing was so perfect

for their need to get drivers into the system.

untuk menarik pengemudi bergabung.

Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

Pengemudi yang butuh uang tambahan, amat, sangat penting.

Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

Kisah sukses lainnya, Citisearch, muncul saat orang butuh situs web.

GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

GoTo.com, yang kami umumkan di TED pada 1998,

was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

muncul di saat perusahaan mencari cara efektif mengatasi lalu lintas.

We thought the idea was so great,

Kami pikir ini ide brilian,

namun sebenarnya, ketepatan waktu berperan lebih penting.

but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

And then some of our failures.

Lalu beberapa kegagalan kami.

Kami memulai Z.com, sebuah perusahaan hiburan online.

We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

We were so excited about it --

Kami bersemangat akan hal ini --

we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

dananya cukup, bisnis modelnya hebat,

kami bahkan punya kontrak dengan bintang Hollywood.

we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

Namun penetrasi broadband terlalu rendah pada 1999-2000.

But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

It was too hard to watch video content online,

Sangat sulit menonton video online ketika itu,

you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

Anda butuh codecs dan melakukan banyak hal untuk menonton,

and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

dan perusahaan ini akhirnya tutup tahun 2003.

Just two years later,

Hanya dua tahun kemudian,

when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

ketika masalah codec terpecahkan oleh Adobe Flash

and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

dan ketika penetrasi broadband mencapai 50% di Amerika,

YouTube was perfectly timed.

YouTube hadir di saat yang tepat.

Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

Idenya brilian, tapi waktunya sangat tepat.

In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

Bahkan, YouTube tidak punya model bisnis saat dimulai.

It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

YouTube bahkan tidak yakin akan berhasil.

Tapi saat kemunculannya, sangat sangat tepat.

But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

So what I would say, in summary,

Jadi, dapat saya simpulkan,

is execution definitely matters a lot.

eksekusi sangat penting.

The idea matters a lot.

Ide juga sangat berpengaruh.

But timing might matter even more.

Tapi, mungkin waktu bahkan lebih penting lagi.

And the best way to really assess timing

Dan cara terbaik untuk memilih waktu yang tepat

is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

adalah dengan melihat apakah konsumen benar-benar siap

for what you have to offer them.

untuk produk Anda.

And to be really, really honest about it,

Dan Anda harus benar-benar jujur dan tidak menyangkal hasil analisa Anda

not be in denial about any results that you see,

because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

karena bila kita menyukai sesuatu, kita ingin ia berhasil

Tapi Anda harus benar-benar jujur tentang ketepatan waktunya.

but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

Seperti saya sampaikan,

As I said earlier,

I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

Menurut saya startup bisa mengubah dunia dan membuatnya jadi lebih baik.

I hope some of these insights

Saya harap informasi ini

can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

dapat membantu Anda meraih rasio kesuksesan yang lebih tinggi,

and thus make something great come to the world

dan karenanya, membuat sesuatu yang hebat

that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

hadir di dunia.

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

Terima kasih sudah mendengarkan.

(Applause)

(Tepuk tangan)