The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross | TED

翻译人员: 展玮 许 校对人员: dahong zhang

I'm really excited to share with you

非常高兴，能够与你们分享

some findings that really surprise me

一些使我感到十分惊讶的发现。

about what makes companies succeed the most,

这些发现是关于什么最能使公司成功

what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

以及对于创业公司，什么因素最要紧。

我相信，创业组织是

I believe that the startup organization

is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

使世界成为更好的地方的最伟大的形式之一。

If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

如果你能用合适的股权激励来召集一帮人

and organize them in a startup,

并且把他们组织起来创业的话

you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

你就能以前所未有的方式释放了人类潜能。

You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

并引领他们去完成不可置信的事情。

But if the startup organization is so great,

但是，如果创业组织那么伟大，

why do so many fail?

为什么还会有很多失败呢？

这就是我想要探究的问题。

That's what I wanted to find out.

I wanted to find out what actually matters most

我想要了解，对创业公司的成功来说，

到底什么最为重要。

for startup success.

And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

我也想要对此问题系统化的分析，

avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

避免一些因为我这些年看到许多公司

from so many companies I've seen over the years.

而得来的直觉上的误解。

I wanted to know this

我想要知道这个，

because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

因为，我从12岁上初中，在汽车站售卖糖果时，

便开始我自己的商业活动。

when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

在高中时，我做太阳能设备的生意，

to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

to college, when I made loudspeakers.

在大学时，我做扩音器生意。

当我从大学毕业的时候，我成立了一家软件公司。

And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

20年前，我成立了创意实验室，

And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

在过去的20年里，我们成立超过100家公司。

and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

many successes, and many big failures.

其中，很多成功了，也有很多失败了。

We learned a lot from those failures.

我们从那些失败中学到了很多。

So I tried to look across what factors

所以，我尝试去探索

是什么因素导致公司的成败。

accounted the most for company success and failure.

So I looked at these five.

所以我关注在这5点。

First, the idea.

第一，创意。

I used to think that the idea was everything.

我过去认为，创意就是全部。

I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

我将我的公司命名为创意实验室，

是因为，我十分推崇，当你首次想到某个想法的时候，“aha”（啊哈）开窍的时刻。

the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

但是，随着时间的推移，

But then over time,

I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

我认为或许团队、执行力或者是适应力，

that mattered even more than the idea.

比创意更要紧。

我从没想过，我会在TED的舞台上，引用拳王泰森的话，

I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

but he once said,

但是，他曾经说过，

"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

“每个人都有计划，直到被人打脸为止。”（笑声）

And I think that's so true about business as well.

我认为，对于生意也是这样的。

So much about a team's execution

对于一个团队的执行力为说，最要紧的，

is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

是它使自己能适应被客户打脸的能力。

The customer is the true reality.

客户就是真理。

And that's why I came to think

这就是为什么我认为

团队是最重要的事情。

that the team maybe was the most important thing.

然后，我开始关注商业模式。

Then I started looking at the business model.

Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

就是这个公司是否有一条清晰的能产生客户收益的路线图吗？

That started rising to the top in my thinking

商业模式开始成为我对什么对成功最重要

about maybe what mattered most for success.

这一思考的重点。

Then I looked at the funding.

然后，我关注了资金。

Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

有时候一些公司会去吸纳大量的资金，

Maybe that's the most important thing?

也许这是最重要的事情？

当然还有时机。

And then of course, the timing.

这个想法是不是太早了，我们还没有做好迎接它的准备？

Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

它是不是太超前了以至于你不得不来教导世界？

Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

它恰在时机吗？

Is it just right?

或者它是不是太晚，已经有太多的公司竞争？

Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

所以我努力去认真考察这五个因素

So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

在公司中的影响。

across many companies.

我考察了100家创意实验室下的公司，

And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

还有100家非创意实验室下的公司，

and 100 non-Idealab companies

to try and come up with something scientific about it.

试图提出一些科学的东西。

So first, on these Idealab companies,

首先，在这些创意实验公司里，

the top five companies --

排在前面的五家公司

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

Citysearch ,CarsDirct, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com

最后都成为了十亿美元以上的成功公司

those all became billion-dollar successes.

And the five companies on the bottom --

而下面的五家公司

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,Desktop Factory, Peoplelink

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

我们曾寄以重望，但没有成功。

So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

所以我试图就这些公司在每个因素中的得分，

how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

给它们排序。

然后对于非创意实验公司，我关注极度的成功者，

And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

像Airbnb，Instagram, Uber ,YouTube ,Linkedln

还有一些失败的案例

And some failures:

Webvan,Kozmo,Pets.com

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Flooz 和 Friendster

Flooz and Friendster.

The bottom companies had intense funding,

垫底的公司都有雄厚的资金

they even had business models in some cases,

一些案例甚至有商业模式在里面

but they didn't succeed.

但是，他们并没有成功。

I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

我尝试考察在这些成功和失败的案例中

for success and failure across all of these companies,

到底什么因素真的最重要

and the results really surprised me.

结果让我大吃一惊

最重要的是时机

The number one thing was timing.

Timing accounted for 42 percent

在解释成功和失败的差异中

时机占42%

of the difference between success and failure.

Team and execution came in second,

团队和执行力排在次位

and the idea,

the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

然后是创意

创意的差异，或者说创意的独特性

实际上排在第三位

that actually came in third.

Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

它不是决定性的

it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

不是说创意不重要

但创意不是最重要的，这还是让我惊讶

but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

有时候更重要的是它是否恰对时机

Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

最末尾的两项，商业模式和资金，实际上对我意义深远

The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

我认为商业模式 之所以不那么重要

I think business model makes sense to be that low

是因为没有商业模式，你也可以创业

because you can start out without a business model

要是你的客户正需要你的创新时，更是如此

and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

至于资金，我认为也一样

And funding, I think as well,

如果你一开始资金不足然而却可以不断发展

if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

实际上今天的时代

especially in today's age,

要想得到大量的资金真的非常非常的容易

it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

那现在让我针对每个方面举一些具体的事例

So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

就以家耳熟能详的Airbnb为例吧

So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

这家公司一开始曾被很多投资者pass掉了

Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

因为大家觉得

because people thought,

“没人会腾出家里的一块地方出租给陌生人”

"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

当然，后来证明大家是错的

Of course, people proved that wrong.

但是它成功的一个原因

But one of the reasons it succeeded,

除了好的商业模式，好创意，强大的执行力之外

aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

就是时机

is the timing.

就在经济危机的最高潮时，该公司出现了

That company came out right during the height of the recession

这时人们真的很需要挣点外快

when people really needed extra money,

这或许帮助人们克服了要把自己的

and that maybe helped people overcome

their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

房间出租给一个陌生人的障碍

Same thing with Uber.

对于Uber，情况相同

Uber came out,

Uber的诞生

incredible company, incredible business model,

难以置信的公司，难以置信的商业模式

也有强大的执行力

great execution, too.

但当它们需要拉司机进入到这个体系时

But the timing was so perfect

for their need to get drivers into the system.

时机恰好是那么完美

Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

司机们正需要挣外快，这点至关重要

Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

我们早期的一些成功范例，像Citysearch城市搜索，就在大家需要网页的时候诞生了

GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

GoTo.com，这个我们早在1998年就在Ted上说过

was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

是在公司寻找划算的获得流量的方法时诞生的

We thought the idea was so great,

我们曾经认为创意是那么重要

然而实际上，时机或许更重要些

but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

And then some of our failures.

然后是一些失败的例子

我们曾创立过一个叫Z.com的线上娱乐公司

We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

We were so excited about it --

我们对此满怀期待

我们筹集了大量的资金，我们有一个很棒的商业模式

we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

甚至我们还将伟大的好莱坞天才们签进公司

we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

但1999到2000年的宽带普及程度实在太低

But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

It was too hard to watch video content online,

要想在网上看视频太困难了

you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

你不得不向浏览器加入多媒体数字信号编解码器，要加入所有编解码器，

and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

最后这家公司最终在2003年退出了市场

Just two years later,

仅仅在两年之后

当Adobe flash 解决了编解码问题

when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

并且全美的宽带普及度达到50%后

YouTube was perfectly timed.

YouTube正中时机

Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

好的创意，不可思议的时机

In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

事实上，YouTube 一开始都没有一个商业模式

也不确定它是否会成功

It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

但它是如此漂亮地正中时机

But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

所以总结来说，我要说的就是

So what I would say, in summary,

is execution definitely matters a lot.

执行力真的很重要

The idea matters a lot.

创意很重要

But timing might matter even more.

但是，时机更重要

And the best way to really assess timing

而真正要去评估时机的最佳方法

is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

就是真的去考察消费者是否真的做好准备

for what you have to offer them.

为你所提供的服务做好准备

And to be really, really honest about it,

对此，一定要实事求是

not be in denial about any results that you see,

不要否认你所看到的任何结果

because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

因为如果你有喜爱的东西，你会想推动它

但你不得不对时机这个因素非常非常的诚实

but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

正如我之前所说

As I said earlier,

I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

我认为创业公司可以改变世界，让世界更加美好

I hope some of these insights

我希望这些见解

can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

可以帮助你们提高一点点成功的几率

and thus make something great come to the world

这样就可以给世界带来一点

that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

本不会发生的好的改变

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

十分感谢，你已经是一名伟大的听众。

（鼓掌）

(Applause)

（鼓掌）