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翻译人员: 展玮 许
校对人员: dahong zhang
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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非常高兴,能够与你们分享
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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一些使我感到十分惊讶的发现。
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
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这些发现是关于什么最能使公司成功
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
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以及对于创业公司,什么因素最要紧。
我相信,创业组织是
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
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使世界成为更好的地方的最伟大的形式之一。
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
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如果你能用合适的股权激励来召集一帮人
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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并且把他们组织起来创业的话
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
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你就能以前所未有的方式释放了人类潜能。
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
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并引领他们去完成不可置信的事情。
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
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但是,如果创业组织那么伟大,
00:45
why do so many fail?
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为什么还会有很多失败呢?
这就是我想要探究的问题。
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
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我想要了解,对创业公司的成功来说,
到底什么最为重要。
00:51
for startup success.
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00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
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我也想要对此问题系统化的分析,
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
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避免一些因为我这些年看到许多公司
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
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而得来的直觉上的误解。
01:00
I wanted to know this
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我想要知道这个,
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
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因为,我从12岁上初中,在汽车站售卖糖果时,
便开始我自己的商业活动。
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
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在高中时,我做太阳能设备的生意,
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
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01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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在大学时,我做扩音器生意。
当我从大学毕业的时候,我成立了一家软件公司。
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
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20年前,我成立了创意实验室,
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
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在过去的20年里,我们成立超过100家公司。
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
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01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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其中,很多成功了,也有很多失败了。
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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我们从那些失败中学到了很多。
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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所以,我尝试去探索
是什么因素导致公司的成败。
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
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01:29
So I looked at these five.
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所以我关注在这5点。
01:31
First, the idea.
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第一,创意。
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
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我过去认为,创意就是全部。
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
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我将我的公司命名为创意实验室,
是因为,我十分推崇,当你首次想到某个想法的时候,“aha”(啊哈)开窍的时刻。
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
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但是,随着时间的推移,
01:39
But then over time,
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01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
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我认为或许团队、执行力或者是适应力,
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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比创意更要紧。
我从没想过,我会在TED的舞台上,引用拳王泰森的话,
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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01:50
but he once said,
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但是,他曾经说过,
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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“每个人都有计划,直到被人打脸为止。”(笑声)
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
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我认为,对于生意也是这样的。
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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对于一个团队的执行力为说,最要紧的,
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
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是它使自己能适应被客户打脸的能力。
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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客户就是真理。
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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这就是为什么我认为
团队是最重要的事情。
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
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然后,我开始关注商业模式。
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
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02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
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就是这个公司是否有一条清晰的能产生客户收益的路线图吗?
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
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商业模式开始成为我对什么对成功最重要
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
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这一思考的重点。
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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然后,我关注了资金。
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
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有时候一些公司会去吸纳大量的资金,
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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也许这是最重要的事情?
当然还有时机。
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
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这个想法是不是太早了,我们还没有做好迎接它的准备?
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
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它是不是太超前了以至于你不得不来教导世界?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
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它恰在时机吗?
02:35
Is it just right?
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或者它是不是太晚,已经有太多的公司竞争?
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
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所以我努力去认真考察这五个因素
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
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在公司中的影响。
02:41
across many companies.
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我考察了100家创意实验室下的公司,
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
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还有100家非创意实验室下的公司,
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
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试图提出一些科学的东西。
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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首先,在这些创意实验公司里,
02:51
the top five companies --
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排在前面的五家公司
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch ,CarsDirct, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com
最后都成为了十亿美元以上的成功公司
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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而下面的五家公司
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,Desktop Factory, Peoplelink
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
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我们曾寄以重望,但没有成功。
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
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所以我试图就这些公司在每个因素中的得分,
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
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给它们排序。
然后对于非创意实验公司,我关注极度的成功者,
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
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03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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像Airbnb,Instagram, Uber ,YouTube ,Linkedln
还有一些失败的案例
03:20
And some failures:
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Webvan,Kozmo,Pets.com
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Flooz 和 Friendster
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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垫底的公司都有雄厚的资金
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
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一些案例甚至有商业模式在里面
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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但是,他们并没有成功。
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
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我尝试考察在这些成功和失败的案例中
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
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到底什么因素真的最重要
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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结果让我大吃一惊
最重要的是时机
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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在解释成功和失败的差异中
时机占42%
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
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03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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团队和执行力排在次位
03:46
and the idea,
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03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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然后是创意
创意的差异,或者说创意的独特性
实际上排在第三位
03:50
that actually came in third.
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03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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它不是决定性的
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
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不是说创意不重要
但创意不是最重要的,这还是让我惊讶
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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有时候更重要的是它是否恰对时机
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
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最末尾的两项,商业模式和资金,实际上对我意义深远
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
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我认为商业模式 之所以不那么重要
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
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是因为没有商业模式,你也可以创业
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
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要是你的客户正需要你的创新时,更是如此
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
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至于资金,我认为也一样
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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如果你一开始资金不足然而却可以不断发展
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
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实际上今天的时代
04:18
especially in today's age,
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要想得到大量的资金真的非常非常的容易
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
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那现在让我针对每个方面举一些具体的事例
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
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就以家耳熟能详的Airbnb为例吧
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
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这家公司一开始曾被很多投资者pass掉了
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
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因为大家觉得
04:30
because people thought,
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“没人会腾出家里的一块地方出租给陌生人”
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
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当然,后来证明大家是错的
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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但是它成功的一个原因
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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除了好的商业模式,好创意,强大的执行力之外
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
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就是时机
04:41
is the timing.
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就在经济危机的最高潮时,该公司出现了
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
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这时人们真的很需要挣点外快
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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这或许帮助人们克服了要把自己的
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
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房间出租给一个陌生人的障碍
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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对于Uber,情况相同
04:52
Uber came out,
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Uber的诞生
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
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难以置信的公司,难以置信的商业模式
也有强大的执行力
04:56
great execution, too.
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但当它们需要拉司机进入到这个体系时
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
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时机恰好是那么完美
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
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司机们正需要挣外快,这点至关重要
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
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我们早期的一些成功范例,像Citysearch城市搜索,就在大家需要网页的时候诞生了
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
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GoTo.com,这个我们早在1998年就在Ted上说过
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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是在公司寻找划算的获得流量的方法时诞生的
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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我们曾经认为创意是那么重要
然而实际上,时机或许更重要些
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
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05:17
And then some of our failures.
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然后是一些失败的例子
我们曾创立过一个叫Z.com的线上娱乐公司
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
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05:22
We were so excited about it --
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我们对此满怀期待
我们筹集了大量的资金,我们有一个很棒的商业模式
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
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甚至我们还将伟大的好莱坞天才们签进公司
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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但1999到2000年的宽带普及程度实在太低
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
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05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
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要想在网上看视频太困难了
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
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你不得不向浏览器加入多媒体数字信号编解码器,要加入所有编解码器,
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
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最后这家公司最终在2003年退出了市场
05:39
Just two years later,
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仅仅在两年之后
当Adobe flash 解决了编解码问题
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
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05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
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并且全美的宽带普及度达到50%后
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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YouTube正中时机
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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好的创意,不可思议的时机
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
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事实上,YouTube 一开始都没有一个商业模式
也不确定它是否会成功
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
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但它是如此漂亮地正中时机
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
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所以总结来说,我要说的就是
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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执行力真的很重要
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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创意很重要
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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但是,时机更重要
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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而真正要去评估时机的最佳方法
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
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就是真的去考察消费者是否真的做好准备
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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为你所提供的服务做好准备
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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对此,一定要实事求是
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
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不要否认你所看到的任何结果
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
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因为如果你有喜爱的东西,你会想推动它
但你不得不对时机这个因素非常非常的诚实
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
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正如我之前所说
06:23
As I said earlier,
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06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
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我认为创业公司可以改变世界,让世界更加美好
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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我希望这些见解
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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可以帮助你们提高一点点成功的几率
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
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这样就可以给世界带来一点
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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本不会发生的好的改变
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
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十分感谢,你已经是一名伟大的听众。
(鼓掌)
06:37
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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