The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross | TED

Prevoditelj: Sonja Žarić Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

I'm really excited to share with you

Zaista sam uzbuđen podijeliti s vama

some findings that really surprise me

pojedine pronalaske koji su me iznenadili

about what makes companies succeed the most,

o tome što čini da tvrtke najviše uspiju,

what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

koji čimbenici utječu najviše na uspjeh startup tvrtki.

I believe that the startup organization

Vjerujem da su startup organizacije

is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

neke od najboljih oblika koji će učiniti svijet boljim mjestom.

If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

Ako uzmete grupu ljudi sa pravim poticajima pravičnosti

and organize them in a startup,

i organizirate ih u startup,

you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

možete otključati ljudski potencijal na načine koji su dosad bili nemogući.

You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

Možete ih potaknuti da postignu nevjerojatne stvari.

But if the startup organization is so great,

Ali ako su startup organizacije tako sjajne,

why do so many fail?

zašto ih toliko ne uspije?

That's what I wanted to find out.

To sam želio saznati.

I wanted to find out what actually matters most

Želi sam saznati što najviše utječe

for startup success.

za uspjeh startup tvrtke.

And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

I želio sam biti sustavan u vezi toga,

avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

izbjeći svoje instinkte i možda pogrešne procjene koje imam

from so many companies I've seen over the years.

od toliko tvrtki koje sam vidio tijekom godina.

I wanted to know this

Želio sam znati ovo

because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

zato što sam pokretao poslove od svoje dvanaeste godine

when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

kad sam prodao slatkiš na busnoj stanici u osnovnoj školi,

to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

pa u srednjoj školi, kad sam napravio solarne uređaje,

to college, when I made loudspeakers.

pa na fakultetu, kad sam pravio razglas.

And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

A kad sam diplomirao, pokrenuo sam sotfverske tvrtke.

And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

Prije 20 godina sam pokrenuo Idealab,

and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

i posljednjih 20 godina smo pokrenuli više od 100 tvrtki,

many successes, and many big failures.

mnogo uspjeha, i mnogo velikih neuspjeha.

We learned a lot from those failures.

Puno smo naučili iz tih neuspjeha.

So I tried to look across what factors

Zato sam pokušao pronaći čimbenike

accounted the most for company success and failure.

koji utječu na uspjeh ili neuspjeh tvrtki.

So I looked at these five.

Gledao sam ovih pet.

First, the idea.

Prvo, ideja.

I used to think that the idea was everything.

Uvijek sam mislio da je sve u ideji.

I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

Nazvao sam svoju tvrtku Idealab zbog toga što obožavam

the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

"Aha" trenutak kad prvi put dođete na ideju.

But then over time,

Ali s vremenom,

I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

sam počeo vjerovati da možda tim, izvedba, prilagodba,

that mattered even more than the idea.

znače mnogo više nego ideja.

I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

Nisam mislio da ću ikad citirati boksača Mikea Tysona na TED pozornici,

but he once said,

ali on je jednom rekao,

"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

"Svi imaju plan, dok ih netko ne lupi usred face." (Smijeh)

And I think that's so true about business as well.

Vjerujem da je ovo istinito i u poslovnom svijetu.

So much about a team's execution

Tako da je izvedba tima većinom

is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

sposobnost da se prilagodi udarcu potrošača posred lica.

The customer is the true reality.

Potrošač je istinska stvarnost.

And that's why I came to think

Zato sam pomislio da je

that the team maybe was the most important thing.

možda tim najbitnija stvar.

Then I started looking at the business model.

Onda sam počeo gledati poslovne modele.

Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

Ima li tvrtka vrlo jasan put proizvodnje prihoda potrošača?

That started rising to the top in my thinking

To je potaknulo da pomislim

about maybe what mattered most for success.

što je najbitnije za uspjeh.

Then I looked at the funding.

Onda sam gledao financiranje.

Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

Ponekad tvrtke dobiju intezivne količine financija.

Maybe that's the most important thing?

Možda je to najbitnija stvar?

And then of course, the timing.

A onda naravno, tajming.

Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

Jel ideja uranila i svijet nije spreman na nju?

Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

Jel rano, kao da si napredan i moraš educirati svijet?

Is it just right?

Ili je u pravo vrijeme?

Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

Ili je prekasno, i već ima previše konkurencije?

So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

Pa sam pregledavao vrlo pažljivo ovih pet čimbenika

across many companies.

unutar mnogo tvrtki.

And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

Pogledao sam unutra svih 100 Idealab tvrtki,

and 100 non-Idealab companies

i 100 ne-Idealab tvrtki

to try and come up with something scientific about it.

da probam doći do nečeg znanstvenog u vezi toga.

So first, on these Idealab companies,

Prvo, kod Idealab tvrtki,

the top five companies --

prvih pet tvrtki --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

those all became billion-dollar successes.

sve su postigle uspjeh od milijardu dolara.

And the five companies on the bottom --

I pet tvrtki na dnu --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

nadali smo se, ali nisu uspjeli.

So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

Pa sam pokušao rangirati sve atribute

how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

kako sam mislio da su tvrtke postigle u svakoj od dimenzija.

And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

A za ne-Idealab tvrtke sam uzeo divlje uspjehe,

like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

kao Airbnb i Instagram i Uber i Youtube i Linkedin.

And some failures:

I neke neuspjele:

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Flooz and Friendster.

Flooz i Friendster.

The bottom companies had intense funding,

Tvrtke na dnu su imale velika ulaganja,

they even had business models in some cases,

neke su imale i poslovne modele,

but they didn't succeed.

ali nisu uspjeli.

I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

Pokušao sam saznati koji čimbenici najviše

for success and failure across all of these companies,

utječu na uspjeh i neuspjeh kod svih ovih tvrtki,

and the results really surprised me.

i rezultati su me iznenadili.

The number one thing was timing.

Prva stvar je bio tajming.

Timing accounted for 42 percent

Tajming je značio 42 posto

of the difference between success and failure.

razlike između uspjeha i neuspjeha.

Team and execution came in second,

Tim i izvedba su na drugom mjestu,

and the idea,

a ideja,

the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

različitost ideje, jedinstvenost ideje,

that actually came in third.

je bila na trećem mjestu.

Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

Ovo nije apsolutno konačno,

it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

ne kažem da ideja nije bitna,

but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

ali me veoma iznenadilo što ideja nije najvažnija stvar.

Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

Ponekad je bilo bitnije kad je zaista iznesena.

The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

Zadnja dva, posao i financiranje, su mi imali smisla.

I think business model makes sense to be that low

Mislim ima smisla da je poslovni model tako nisko

because you can start out without a business model

jer možete početi posao bez poslovnog modela

and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

a onda ga napraviti kasnije kad to potrošači budu zahtijevali.

And funding, I think as well,

I financiranje, mislim,

if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

ako nemate dovoljno sredstava na početku a dobivate na privlačnosti,

especially in today's age,

pogotovo u današnjem dobu,

it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

vrlo, vrlo je lako doći do ozbiljnih ulaganja.

So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

Sada ću vam pokazati nekoliko određenih primjera za svaki od ovih.

So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

Uzmite divlji uspjeh kao što je Airbnb za koji svi znaju.

Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

Tu tvrtku su slavno svi pametni investitori zaobilazili

because people thought,

jer su ljudi mislili,

"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

"Nitko neće iznajmiti svoj prostor u kući strancu."

Of course, people proved that wrong.

Naravno, ljudi su pokazali suprotno.

But one of the reasons it succeeded,

Ali jedan od razloga što su uspjeli,

aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

uz dobar poslovni model, dobru ideju, odličnu izvedbu,

is the timing.

je tajming.

That company came out right during the height of the recession

Ta tvrtka se pojavila upravo u vrijeme vrhunca recesije

when people really needed extra money,

kad je ljudima trebao dodatni novac,

and that maybe helped people overcome

i to je možda pomoglo ljudima da

their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

prevladaju prigovore iznajmljivanju svog doma strancu.

Same thing with Uber.

Ista stvar i sa Uberom.

Uber came out,

Uber se pojavio,

incredible company, incredible business model,

nevjerojatna tvrtka, nevjerojatan poslovni model,

great execution, too.

odlična izvedba, isto.

But the timing was so perfect

Ali je tajming bio savršen

for their need to get drivers into the system.

da uvedu vozače u sustav.

Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

Vozači su tražili dodatni novac, to je bilo veoma važno.

Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

Neki od naših uspjeha, Citysearch, su se pojavili kad je ljudima trebala web stranica.

GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

GoTo.com, koji smo zapravo najavili na TED 1998. godine,

was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

se pojavio kad su tvrtkama trebali isplativi načini da povećaju promet.

We thought the idea was so great,

Mislili smo da je ideja izvrsna,

but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

ali je zapravo tajming bio možda bitniji.

And then some of our failures.

I onda neki od naših neuspjeha.

We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

Pokrenuli smo tvrtku imena Z.com, online tvrtka za zabavu.

We were so excited about it --

Bili smo vrlo uzbuđeni --

we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

prikupili smo dovoljno novaca, imali smo izvrstan poslovni model,

we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

čak smo potpisali ugovor sa nevjerojatnim Hollywoodskim talentom.

But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

Ali je prodiranje širokopojasnih usluga bilo prenisko 1999-2000.

It was too hard to watch video content online,

Bilo je teško gledati video sadržaj online,

you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

morali ste instalirati codece u svoj pretraživač i sve te stvari,

and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

i tvrtka je naposlijetku propala 2003. godine.

Just two years later,

Samo dvije godine poslije,

when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

kada je Adobe Flash rješio problem codeca

and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

i kad je prodiranje širokopojasnih usluga prešlo 50% u Americi,

YouTube was perfectly timed.

Youtube je imao savršen tajming.

Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

Odlična ideja, nevjerojatan tajming.

In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

Ustvari, Youtube nije čak imao ni poslovni model kad je krenio.

It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

Nisu bili sigurni da će uspjeti.

But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

Ali to je bilo divno, predivno tempirano.

So what I would say, in summary,

Želim reći, dakle,

is execution definitely matters a lot.

izvedba puno znači.

The idea matters a lot.

Ideja također puno znači.

But timing might matter even more.

Ali tajming znači više.

And the best way to really assess timing

Najbolji način da se procijeni tajming

is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

je da pogledate jesu li potrošači zaista spremni

for what you have to offer them.

za ono što im nudite.

And to be really, really honest about it,

I da budete zaista, zaista iskreni u vezi toga,

not be in denial about any results that you see,

a ne da poričete rezultate koje vidite.

because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

jer ako imate nešto što volite, želite da se probije.

but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

ali morate biti veoma, veoma iskreni u vezi tajminga.

As I said earlier,

Kao što sam već rekao

I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

Mislim da startup tvrtke mogu promijeniti i poboljšati svijet.

I hope some of these insights

Nadam se da vam ovi uvidi

can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

mogu možda pomoći da imate malo veći odnos uspjeha,

and thus make something great come to the world

i tako pomognete da nešto odlično zaživi u svijetu

that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

što inače ne bi.

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

Mnogo vam hvala, bili ste divna publika.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)