On being wrong | Kathryn Schulz

翻译人员: Coco Shen 校对人员: Geoff Chen

So it's 1995,

当时是95年

I'm in college,

我在上大学

and a friend and I go on a road trip

我和一个朋友开车去玩

from Providence, Rhode Island

从罗得岛的普罗旺斯区出发

to Portland, Oregon.

到奥勒冈州的波特兰市

And you know, we're young and unemployed,

我们年轻，无业

so we do the whole thing on back roads

于是整个旅程都在乡间小道

through state parks

经过州立公园

and national forests --

和国家保护森林

basically the longest route we can possibly take.

我们尽可能绕着最长的路径

And somewhere in the middle of South Dakota,

在南达科塔州之中某处

I turn to my friend

我转向我的朋友

and I ask her a question

问她一个

that's been bothering me

两千英里路途上

for 2,000 miles.

一直烦恼我的问题

"What's up with the Chinese character I keep seeing by the side of the road?"

"路边那个一直出现的中文字到底是什么?"

My friend looks at me totally blankly.

我的朋友露出疑惑的神情

There's actually a gentleman in the front row

正如现在坐在第一排的这三位男士

who's doing a perfect imitation of her look.

所露出的神情一样

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I'm like, "You know,

我说"你知道的

all the signs we keep seeing

我们一直看到的那个路牌

with the Chinese character on them."

写着中文的那个啊"

She just stares at me for a few moments,

她瞪着我的脸一阵子

and then she cracks up,

突然笑开了

because she figures out what I'm talking about.

因为她总算知道我所指为何

And what I'm talking about is this.

我说的是这个

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Right, the famous Chinese character for picnic area.

没错，这就是代表野餐区的那个中文字

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I've spent the last five years of my life

过去的五年

thinking about situations

我一直在思考

exactly like this --

刚刚我所描述的状况

why we sometimes misunderstand

为什么我们会对身边的征兆

the signs around us,

产生误解

and how we behave when that happens,

当误解发生时我们作何反应

and what all of this can tell us about human nature.

以及这一切所告诉我们的人性

In other words, as you heard Chris say,

换句话说，就像 Chris 刚才说的

I've spent the last five years

过去五年的时间

thinking about being wrong.

我都在思考错误的价值

This might strike you as a strange career move,

你可能觉得这是个奇异的专业

but it actually has one great advantage:

但有一项好处是不容置疑的：

no job competition.

没有竞争者。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In fact, most of us do everything we can

事实上，我们大部分的人

to avoid thinking about being wrong,

都尽力不思考错误的价值

or at least to avoid thinking about the possibility

或至少避免想到我们

that we ourselves are wrong.

有可能犯错。

We get it in the abstract.

我们都知道这个模糊的概念。

We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes.

我们都知道这里的每个人都曾经犯错

The human species, in general, is fallible -- okay fine.

人类本来就会犯错 － 没问题

But when it comes down to me, right now,

一旦这个想法临到我们自身

to all the beliefs I hold,

我们现在所有的

here in the present tense,

所有的信念

suddenly all of this abstract appreciation of fallibility

对人类可能犯错的抽象概念

goes out the window --

随即被我们抛弃

and I can't actually think of anything I'm wrong about.

我无法想到我有哪里出错

And the thing is, the present tense is where we live.

但是，我们活在现在

We go to meetings in the present tense;

我们开会，去家庭旅游

we go on family vacations in the present tense;

去投票

we go to the polls and vote in the present tense.

全都是现在式

So effectively, we all kind of wind up traveling through life,

我们就像现在一个小泡泡里

trapped in this little bubble

经历人生

of feeling very right about everything.

感觉自己总是对的

I think this is a problem.

我认为这是个问题

I think it's a problem for each of us as individuals,

我认为这是每个人私人生活

in our personal and professional lives,

和职业生活中的问题

and I think it's a problem for all of us collectively as a culture.

我认为我们身为群体，这也造成了文化问题

So what I want to do today

于是，我今天想做的是

is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck

先谈谈为甚么我们会

inside this feeling of being right.

陷在这种自以为是的心态中

And second, why it's such a problem.

第二是为甚么这是个问题

And finally, I want to convince you

最后我想说服大家

that it is possible

克服这种感觉

to step outside of that feeling

是可能的

and that if you can do so,

而且一旦你做到了

it is the single greatest

这将成为你道德上

moral, intellectual and creative leap you can make.

智性上和创意上最大的进步

So why do we get stuck

为甚么我们会陷在

in this feeling of being right?

这种自以为是的心态中？

One reason, actually, has to do with a feeling of being wrong.

事实上这和犯错的感觉有关

So let me ask you guys something --

我想问问你们

or actually, let me ask you guys something, because you're right here:

让我问问台上的你们

How does it feel -- emotionally --

当你意识到自己犯错了

how does it feel to be wrong?

你感觉如何？

Dreadful. Thumbs down.

糟透了。很差劲。

Embarrassing. Okay, wonderful, great.

难堪。很好，是的。

Dreadful, thumbs down, embarrassing --

很糟糕，很差劲，很难堪。

thank you, these are great answers,

谢谢你们提供这些答案

but they're answers to a different question.

但这些答案没有回答我的问题

You guys are answering the question:

你们回答的问题是：

How does it feel to realize you're wrong?

当你意识到你犯错的时候，你的感觉如何？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Realizing you're wrong can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right?

意识到你犯错了就会有刚刚所说的这些感觉，不是吗？

I mean it can be devastating, it can be revelatory,

令人沮丧，暴露了一些真实

it can actually be quite funny,

有时候甚至有些好笑

like my stupid Chinese character mistake.

像我误以为路牌是中文字

But just being wrong

但犯错本身

doesn't feel like anything.

事实上毫无感觉

I'll give you an analogy.

让我给你一个例子

Do you remember that Loony Tunes cartoon

你记得卡通里

where there's this pathetic coyote

那个总是在追逐

who's always chasing and never catching a roadrunner?

却从未抓到猎物的土狼吗？

In pretty much every episode of this cartoon,

几乎在每一集里

there's a moment where the coyote is chasing the roadrunner

牠的猎物 － 一只走鹃鸟

and the roadrunner runs off a cliff,

都会跳下悬崖

which is fine -- he's a bird, he can fly.

反正牠是鸟，牠可以飞

But the thing is, the coyote runs off the cliff right after him.

但土狼也会跟着牠一起跳崖

And what's funny --

那很好笑

at least if you're six years old --

如果你是个六岁儿童

is that the coyote's totally fine too.

土狼也很好

He just keeps running --

牠就这么继续跑

right up until the moment that he looks down

直到牠往下看

and realizes that he's in mid-air.

发现自己漫步在空中

That's when he falls.

这时候他才会往下掉

When we're wrong about something --

在我们犯错时

not when we realize it, but before that --

在我们意识到我们犯错时

we're like that coyote

我们就像那只土狼

after he's gone off the cliff and before he looks down.

还没意识到自己奔出悬崖

You know, we're already wrong,

我们已经错了

we're already in trouble,

已经惹上麻烦了

but we feel like we're on solid ground.

但仍然感觉像走在地上

So I should actually correct something I said a moment ago.

我应该改变我之前的说法

It does feel like something to be wrong;

犯错的感觉就和

it feels like being right.

正确的感觉一样

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So this is one reason, a structural reason,

事实上我们这种自以为对的感受

why we get stuck inside this feeling of rightness.

是有构造性的原因的

I call this error blindness.

我称之为错误盲点

Most of the time,

大部份的时间里

we don't have any kind of internal cue

我们身体里没有任何机制

to let us know that we're wrong about something,

提醒我们错了

until it's too late.

直到木已成舟

But there's a second reason that we get stuck inside this feeling as well --

但还有第二个理由

and this one is cultural.

文化性的理由

Think back for a moment to elementary school.

回想小学时代

You're sitting there in class,

你坐在课堂里

and your teacher is handing back quiz papers,

你的老师发回小考考卷

and one of them looks like this.

像这样的小考考卷

This is not mine, by the way.

虽然这张不是我的

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So there you are in grade school,

你从小学时代

and you know exactly what to think

就知道该对拿这张考卷的同学

about the kid who got this paper.

下甚么评语

It's the dumb kid, the troublemaker,

笨蛋，捣蛋鬼

the one who never does his homework.

从不做功课的坏学生

So by the time you are nine years old,

你不过才九岁

you've already learned, first of all,

你已经懂得，首先

that people who get stuff wrong

那些犯错的人

are lazy, irresponsible dimwits --

都是懒惰、不负责任的傻瓜

and second of all,

第二

that the way to succeed in life

想要在人生中成功

is to never make any mistakes.

就不要犯错

We learn these really bad lessons really well.

我们很早就得到这些错误讯息

And a lot of us --

而我们

and I suspect, especially a lot of us in this room --

尤其是这个大厅里的许多人

deal with them by just becoming

都因此成为好学生

perfect little A students,

拿全A

perfectionists, over-achievers.

完美主义、永不满意

Right,

不是吗？

Mr. CFO, astrophysicist, ultra-marathoner?

财务长、天体物理学家、超级马拉松先生们？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You're all CFO, astrophysicists, ultra-marathoners, it turns out.

结果是你们全成了财务长、天体物理学家、跑超级马拉松

Okay, so fine.

那很好

Except that then we freak out

但一旦我们发现有可能犯错

at the possibility that we've gotten something wrong.

就开始手足无措

Because according to this,

因为依照规定

getting something wrong

犯错

means there's something wrong with us.

代表我们一定也有甚么不对劲

So we just insist that we're right,

于是我们坚持己见

because it makes us feel smart and responsible

因为那让我们感觉聪明、得体

and virtuous and safe.

安全和可靠

So let me tell you a story.

让我告诉你们一个故事

A couple of years ago,

几年前

a woman comes into Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center for a surgery.

一个女人到 Beth Israel Deaconess 诊所做手术

Beth Israel's in Boston.

Beth Israel 在波士顿

It's the teaching hospital for Harvard --

是哈佛大学的教学附属医院

one of the best hospitals in the country.

全国数一数二的医疗中心

So this woman comes in and she's taken into the operating room.

这个女人被送进开刀房

She's anesthetized, the surgeon does his thing --

麻醉，外科医生做完手术

stitches her back up, sends her out to the recovery room.

缝合，将她送进恢复室

Everything seems to have gone fine.

一切看上去都很好

And she wakes up, and she looks down at herself,

她醒来，往自己身上一看

and she says, "Why is the wrong side of my body in bandages?"

说“为甚么我的左腿绑着绷带？”

Well the wrong side of her body is in bandages

她应该接受治疗的是右腿

because the surgeon has performed a major operation

但为他做手术的外科医生

on her left leg instead of her right one.

却把刀开在左腿

When the vice president for health care quality at Beth Israel

当副院长出来为医院的医疗质量

spoke about this incident,

和这次意外做出解释时

he said something very interesting.

他说了句很有趣的话

He said, "For whatever reason,

他说“无论如何

the surgeon simply felt

这位外科医生感觉

that he was on the correct side of the patient."

他开下的刀是在正确的一侧”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The point of this story

故事的重点是

is that trusting too much in the feeling

相信自己的判断力

of being on the correct side of anything

相信自己站在对的一边

can be very dangerous.

是非常危险的

This internal sense of rightness

我们心中时常感觉到的

that we all experience so often

理直气壮的感觉

is not a reliable guide

在真实世界中

to what is actually going on in the external world.

并不是个可靠的向导。

And when we act like it is,

当我们依此行事

and we stop entertaining the possibility that we could be wrong,

不再思考我们是否犯错

well that's when we end up doing things

我们就有可能

like dumping 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico,

把两百湾加仑的石油倒进墨西哥湾

or torpedoing the global economy.

或是颠覆世界经济

So this is a huge practical problem.

这是个很实际的问题

But it's also a huge social problem.

这也是个很大的社会问题

Think for a moment about what it means to feel right.

“感觉对”究竟是什么意思

It means that you think that your beliefs

这代表着你认为你的信念

just perfectly reflect reality.

和真实是一致的

And when you feel that way,

当你有这种感觉的时候

you've got a problem to solve,

你的问题就大了

which is, how are you going to explain

因为如果你是对的

all of those people who disagree with you?

为甚么还有人和你持不同意见？

It turns out, most of us explain those people the same way,

于是我们往往用同一种

by resorting to a series of unfortunate assumptions.

思考方式去解释这些异议

The first thing we usually do when someone disagrees with us

第一是当他人不同意我们的说法

is we just assume they're ignorant.

我们便觉得他们无知

They don't have access to the same information that we do,

他们不像我们懂得这么多

and when we generously share that information with them,

当我们慷慨地和他们分享我们的知识

they're going to see the light and come on over to our team.

他们便会理解，并加入我们的行列

When that doesn't work,

如果不是这样

when it turns out those people have all the same facts that we do

如果这些人和我们获得的信息一样多

and they still disagree with us,

却仍然不认同我们

then we move on to a second assumption,

我们便有了下一个定论

which is that they're idiots.

那就是他们是白痴

(Laughter)

（笑声）

They have all the right pieces of the puzzle,

他们已经有了所有的信息

and they are too moronic to put them together correctly.

却笨到无法拼凑出正确的图像

And when that doesn't work,

一旦第二个定论也不成立

when it turns out that people who disagree with us

当这些反对我们的人

have all the same facts we do

和我们有一样的信息

and are actually pretty smart,

又聪明

then we move on to a third assumption:

我们便有了第三个结论

they know the truth,

他们知道事实是甚么

and they are deliberately distorting it

但却为了自己的好处

for their own malevolent purposes.

故意曲解真实。

So this is a catastrophe.

这真是个大灾难

This attachment to our own rightness

我们的自以为是

keeps us from preventing mistakes

让我们在最需要的时候

when we absolutely need to

无法预防犯错

and causes us to treat each other terribly.

更让我们互相仇视

But to me, what's most baffling

对我来说

and most tragic about this

最大的悲剧是

is that it misses the whole point of being human.

它让我们错失了身为人的珍贵意义

It's like we want to imagine

那就像是想象

that our minds are just these perfectly translucent windows

我们的心灵之窗完全透明

and we just gaze out of them

我们向外观看

and describe the world as it unfolds.

描述在我们之前展开的世界

And we want everybody else to gaze out of the same window

我们想要每个人和我们有一样的窗子

and see the exact same thing.

对世界做出一样的观察

That is not true,

那不是真的

and if it were, life would be incredibly boring.

如果是，人生将会多么无聊

The miracle of your mind

心灵的神奇之处

isn't that you can see the world as it is.

不在你懂得这个世界是甚么样子

It's that you can see the world as it isn't.

而是去理解那些你不懂的地方

We can remember the past,

我们记得过去

and we can think about the future,

思考未来

and we can imagine what it's like

我们想象

to be some other person in some other place.

自己成为他人，在他方

And we all do this a little differently,

我们的想象都有些不同

which is why we can all look up at the same night sky

于是当我们抬头看同一个夜空

and see this

我们看到这个

and also this

这个

and also this.

和这个

And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong.

这也是我们搞错事情的原因

1,200 years before Descartes said his famous thing

在笛卡儿说出那句有名的”我思故我在“

about "I think therefore I am,"

的一千两百年前

this guy, St. Augustine, sat down

圣奥古斯丁，坐下来

and wrote "Fallor ergo sum" --

写下"Fallor ergo sum"

"I err therefore I am."

"我错故我在"

Augustine understood

奥古斯丁懂得

that our capacity to screw up,

我们犯错的能力

it's not some kind of embarrassing defect

这并不是人性中

in the human system,

一个令人难堪的缺陷

something we can eradicate or overcome.

不是我们可以克服或消灭的

It's totally fundamental to who we are.

这是我们的本质

Because, unlike God,

因为我们不是上帝

we don't really know what's going on out there.

我们不知道我们之外究竟发生了甚么

And unlike all of the other animals,

而不同于其它动物的是

we are obsessed with trying to figure it out.

我们都疯狂地想找出解答

To me, this obsession

对我来说

is the source and root

这种寻找的冲动

of all of our productivity and creativity.

就是我们生产力和创造力的来源

Last year, for various reasons,

因为一些缘故

I found myself listening to a lot of episodes

去年我在广播上

of the Public Radio show This American Life.

听了很多集的"我们的美国人生"

And so I'm listening and I'm listening,

我听着听着

and at some point, I start feeling

突然发现

like all the stories are about being wrong.

这些故事全和犯错有关

And my first thought was,

我的第一个念头是

"I've lost it.

“我完了

I've become the crazy wrongness lady.

我写书写疯了

I just imagined it everywhere,"

四处都看到有关犯错的幻觉”

which has happened.

说真的是这样

But a couple of months later,

但几个月后

I actually had a chance to interview Ira Glass, who's the host of the show.

我访问了那个广播节目的主持人 Ira Glass

And I mentioned this to him,

我向他提到这件事

and he was like, "No actually, that's true.

他回答我“事实上

In fact," he says,

你是对的”他说

"as a staff, we joke

“我们这些工作人员总是

that every single episode of our show

开玩笑说每集节目之中的

has the same crypto-theme.

秘密主题都是一样的

And the crypto-theme is:

这个秘密主题就是

'I thought this one thing was going to happen

"我以为这件事会这样发生

and something else happened instead.'

结果其它事情发生了"

And the thing is," says Ira Glass, "we need this.

他说"但是，这就是我们需要的

We need these moments

我们需要这些意外

of surprise and reversal and wrongness

这些颠倒和错误

to make these stories work."

这些故事才能成立。"

And for the rest of us, audience members,

而我们身为观众

as listeners, as readers,

听众、读者

we eat this stuff up.

我们吸收这些故事

We love things like plot twists

我们喜欢故事转折

and red herrings and surprise endings.

令人惊讶的结局

When it comes to our stories,

我们喜欢在故事里

we love being wrong.

看到犯错

But, you know, our stories are like this

但，故事会这样写

because our lives are like this.

是因为人生就是这样

We think this one thing is going to happen

我们以为某些事情会这样发生

and something else happens instead.

发生的却是其它事

George Bush thought he was going to invade Iraq,

小布什以为他入侵伊拉克

find a bunch of weapons of mass destruction,

会找到大规模毁灭性武器

liberate the people and bring democracy to the Middle East.

解放中东百姓，为他们带来民主自由

And something else happened instead.

但却不是这样

And Hosni Mubarak

穆巴拉克以为

thought he was going to be the dictator of Egypt for the rest of his life,

他到死都会是埃及的独裁者

until he got too old or too sick

一直到他年老或卧病

and could pass the reigns of power onto his son.

再把他的权力交给下一代

And something else happened instead.

但却不是这样

And maybe you thought

或许你想过

you were going to grow up and marry your high school sweetheart

你会长大、嫁给你的初恋情人

and move back to your hometown and raise a bunch of kids together.

搬回老家，生一群孩子

And something else happened instead.

但却不是这样

And I have to tell you

我必须说

that I thought I was writing an incredibly nerdy book

我以为我写的是一本很冷僻的书

about a subject everybody hates

有关一个人人讨厌的主题

for an audience that would never materialize.

为一些从不存在的读者

And something else happened instead.

但却不是这样

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I mean, this is life.

我们的人生

For good and for ill,

无论好坏

we generate these incredible stories

我们创造了啦

about the world around us,

那包围我们的世界

and then the world turns around and astonishes us.

而世界转过头来，令我们大吃一惊

No offense, but this entire conference

说真的，这整个会议

is an unbelievable monument

充斥着这样难以置信的时刻

to our capacity to get stuff wrong.

我们一次又一次地意识到自己的错误

We just spent an entire week

我们花了整整一周

talking about innovations and advancements

讨论创新，进步

and improvements,

和改善

but you know why we need all of those innovations

你知道我们为甚么需要这些创新

and advancements and improvements?

进步和改善吗？

Because half the stuff

因为其中有一半

that's the most mind-boggling and world-altering --

来自最应该改变世界的

TED 1998 --

98年的TED

eh.

呃

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Didn't really work out that way, did it?

真是出人意料之外啊，不是吗

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Where's my jet pack, Chris?

我的逃生火箭在哪，Chris?

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

So here we are again.

于是我们又在这里

And that's how it goes.

事情就是这样

We come up with another idea.

我们重新想出其它点子

We tell another story.

我们有了新的故事

We hold another conference.

我们开了另一个会议

The theme of this one,

这次的主题是

as you guys have now heard seven million times,

如果你还没有听到耳朵出油的话

is the rediscovery of wonder.

是重新找到想象的力量

And to me,

对我来说

if you really want to rediscover wonder,

如果你真的想重新找到想象的力量

you need to step outside

你需要离开

of that tiny, terrified space of rightness

那个小小的、自我感觉良好的小圈圈

and look around at each other

看看彼此

and look out at the vastness

看看宇宙的

and complexity and mystery

广大无垠

of the universe

复杂神秘

and be able to say,

然后真正地说

"Wow, I don't know.

“哇，我不知道

Maybe I'm wrong."

或许我错了。”

Thank you.

谢谢各位

(Applause)

（掌声）

Thank you guys.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）