On being wrong | Kathryn Schulz

711,151 views ・ 2011-04-26

TED


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Prevoditelj: Jelena Horvat Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG
00:15
So it's 1995,
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Dakle 1995. je
00:18
I'm in college,
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i ja sam na fakultetu,
00:20
and a friend and I go on a road trip
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i idem s prijateljicom na putovanje
00:23
from Providence, Rhode Island
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od Providence, u Rhode Islandu
00:25
to Portland, Oregon.
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do Portlanda, u Oregonu.
00:27
And you know, we're young and unemployed,
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Znate, mlade smo i nezaposlene,
00:30
so we do the whole thing on back roads
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i cijelim putem idemo po sporednim cestama
00:32
through state parks
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kroz prirodne rezervate
00:34
and national forests --
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i nacionalne parkove --
00:37
basically the longest route we can possibly take.
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zapravo najduža ruta kojom smo mogle ići.
00:41
And somewhere in the middle of South Dakota,
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I tamo negdje usred Južne Dakote,
00:44
I turn to my friend
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okrenem se prijateljici
00:47
and I ask her a question
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i postavim joj pitanje
00:49
that's been bothering me
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koje me mučilo
00:51
for 2,000 miles.
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3.220 kilometara.
00:55
"What's up with the Chinese character I keep seeing by the side of the road?"
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"Kakav je to kineski znak koji stalno viđam kraj ceste?"
01:02
My friend looks at me totally blankly.
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Prijateljica me pogleda posve zbunjeno.
01:06
There's actually a gentleman in the front row
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Tu je gospodin u prvom redu
01:08
who's doing a perfect imitation of her look.
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koji me upravo gleda kao ona tada.
01:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:14
And I'm like, "You know,
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Kažem: "Znaš,
01:16
all the signs we keep seeing
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svi oni znakovi koje viđamo
01:18
with the Chinese character on them."
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s kineskim znakom na njima."
01:22
She just stares at me for a few moments,
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U je samo buljila u mene na nekoliko trenutaka
01:25
and then she cracks up,
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a onda je pukla,
01:28
because she figures out what I'm talking about.
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jer je shvatila o čemu govorim.
01:30
And what I'm talking about is this.
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A ono o čemu govorim je ovo.
01:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:39
Right, the famous Chinese character for picnic area.
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Da, poznati kineski znak za prostor za piknik.
01:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:45
I've spent the last five years of my life
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Provela sam posljednjih pet godina svog života
01:49
thinking about situations
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misleći o situacijama
01:51
exactly like this --
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upravo kao što je ova --
01:54
why we sometimes misunderstand
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zašto ponekad pogrešno razumijemo
01:56
the signs around us,
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znakove oko nas,
01:58
and how we behave when that happens,
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i kako se ponašamo kada se to dogodi,
02:01
and what all of this can tell us about human nature.
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i što nam sve to može reći o ljudskoj prirodi.
02:05
In other words, as you heard Chris say,
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Drugim riječima, kao što ste čuli da je Chris rekao,
02:07
I've spent the last five years
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provela sam posljednjih pet godina
02:09
thinking about being wrong.
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misleći na to kako je to kad smo u krivu.
02:12
This might strike you as a strange career move,
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Mogli biste pomisliti kako je to čudan potez u karijeri,
02:15
but it actually has one great advantage:
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ali zapravo ima jednu veliku prednost:
02:18
no job competition.
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nema konkurencije.
02:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:22
In fact, most of us do everything we can
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Zapravo, većina nas učinit će sve što može
02:25
to avoid thinking about being wrong,
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da izbjegne razmišljati o tome da je u krivu
02:28
or at least to avoid thinking about the possibility
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ili barem da izbjegne razmišljati o mogućnosti
02:30
that we ourselves are wrong.
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da smo u krivu.
02:32
We get it in the abstract.
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Shvaćamo to kada je apstraktno.
02:34
We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes.
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Svi mi znamo da svatko od nas u ovoj sobi čini pogreške.
02:37
The human species, in general, is fallible -- okay fine.
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Ljudska je vrsta općenito pogrešiva -- u redu.
02:41
But when it comes down to me, right now,
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Ali kad se radi o meni upravo sada
02:44
to all the beliefs I hold,
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o svim mojim uvjerenjima,
02:46
here in the present tense,
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ovdje u sadašnjosti,
02:49
suddenly all of this abstract appreciation of fallibility
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odjednom sva ta apstraktna priznanja o pogrešivosti
02:53
goes out the window --
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padaju u vodu --
02:56
and I can't actually think of anything I'm wrong about.
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i zapravo se ne mogu sjetiti ničega u vezi čega sam u krivu.
03:00
And the thing is, the present tense is where we live.
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Stvar je u tome da je sadašnjost tu gdje živimo.
03:03
We go to meetings in the present tense;
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Idemo na sastanke u sadašnjem vremenu;
03:06
we go on family vacations in the present tense;
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idemo na obiteljske izlete u sadašnjem vremenu;
03:08
we go to the polls and vote in the present tense.
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idemo na izbore i glasamo u sadašnjem vremenu.
03:12
So effectively, we all kind of wind up traveling through life,
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Zapravo čini se da kroz život putujemo
03:15
trapped in this little bubble
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zarobljeni unutar mjehurića
03:17
of feeling very right about everything.
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osjećaja da smo u svemu u pravu.
03:21
I think this is a problem.
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Mislim da je to problem.
03:23
I think it's a problem for each of us as individuals,
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Mislim da je to problem za svakog od nas pojedinačno
03:26
in our personal and professional lives,
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u našem privatnom i profesionalnom životu
03:29
and I think it's a problem for all of us collectively as a culture.
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i mislim kako je to problem za sve nas u cjelini kao kulturu.
03:32
So what I want to do today
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Stoga ono što želim učiniti danas
03:34
is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck
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je, kao prvo, govoriti o tome zašto zaglavimo
03:37
inside this feeling of being right.
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unutar osjećaja ispravnosti.
03:39
And second, why it's such a problem.
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I drugo, zašto je to takav problem.
03:42
And finally, I want to convince you
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I konačno, želim vas uvjeriti
03:44
that it is possible
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da je moguće
03:46
to step outside of that feeling
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izići iz tog osjećaja,
03:48
and that if you can do so,
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i da, ako to možete učiniti,
03:50
it is the single greatest
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to je onda najveći
03:52
moral, intellectual and creative leap you can make.
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moralni, intelektualni i kreativni skok koji možete učiniti.
03:57
So why do we get stuck
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Pa zašto zaglavimo
03:59
in this feeling of being right?
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u tom osjećaju ispravnosti?
04:01
One reason, actually, has to do with a feeling of being wrong.
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Jedan razlog zapravo ima veze s osjećajem krivice.
04:04
So let me ask you guys something --
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Dajte da vas štogod upitam --
04:06
or actually, let me ask you guys something, because you're right here:
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ili zapravo, dajte da priupitam vas koji ste bliže:
04:10
How does it feel -- emotionally --
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Kakav je to osjećaj -- emotivno --
04:13
how does it feel to be wrong?
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kakav je to osjećaj biti u krivu?
04:16
Dreadful. Thumbs down.
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Strašno. Palčevi dolje.
04:19
Embarrassing. Okay, wonderful, great.
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Posramljeno. OK, divno, dobro.
04:21
Dreadful, thumbs down, embarrassing --
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Strašno, palčevi dolje, posramljeno --
04:23
thank you, these are great answers,
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hvala vam, to su odlični odgovori,
04:26
but they're answers to a different question.
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ali to su odgovori na drugo pitanje.
04:29
You guys are answering the question:
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Vi ste odgovorili na pitanje:
04:31
How does it feel to realize you're wrong?
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Kakav je to osjećaj kad shvatite da ste u krivu?
04:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:38
Realizing you're wrong can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right?
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Kada shvatite da ste u krivu, možete se osjećati ovako ali i potpuno drugačije, zar ne?
04:41
I mean it can be devastating, it can be revelatory,
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Mislim, to može biti poražavajuće, može biti i poučno,
04:44
it can actually be quite funny,
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može biti i prilično smiješno,
04:46
like my stupid Chinese character mistake.
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kao moja glupa greška s kineskim znakom.
04:49
But just being wrong
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Ali samo biti u krivu
04:52
doesn't feel like anything.
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ne osjeća se poput nečega.
04:54
I'll give you an analogy.
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Dat ću vam analogiju.
04:57
Do you remember that Loony Tunes cartoon
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Sjećate li se onog crtića
04:59
where there's this pathetic coyote
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s onim patetičnim kojotom
05:01
who's always chasing and never catching a roadrunner?
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koji uvijek lovi, ali nikad ne ulovi Pticu Trkačicu?
05:03
In pretty much every episode of this cartoon,
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U gotovo svakoj epizodi tog crtića,
05:06
there's a moment where the coyote is chasing the roadrunner
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postoji trenutak gdje kojot lovi Pticu Trkačicu
05:08
and the roadrunner runs off a cliff,
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i Ptica otrči preko ruba litice,
05:10
which is fine -- he's a bird, he can fly.
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što je u redu, ona je ptica, može letjeti.
05:13
But the thing is, the coyote runs off the cliff right after him.
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Ali stvar je u tome da i kojot otrči za njom preko ruba litice.
05:17
And what's funny --
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I ono što je smiješno --
05:19
at least if you're six years old --
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barem ako imate šest godina --
05:21
is that the coyote's totally fine too.
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ja da je to kojotu sasvim u redu.
05:23
He just keeps running --
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On trči i dalje --
05:25
right up until the moment that he looks down
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sve do trenutka dok ne pogleda dolje
05:27
and realizes that he's in mid-air.
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i shvati da je u zraku.
05:30
That's when he falls.
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I tada pada.
05:34
When we're wrong about something --
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Kada smo u krivu u vezi nečega --
05:36
not when we realize it, but before that --
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ne kada to shvatimo nego prije --
05:39
we're like that coyote
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mi smo kao taj kojot
05:42
after he's gone off the cliff and before he looks down.
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nakon što je otrčao preko ruba litice i prije nego pogleda dolje.
05:46
You know, we're already wrong,
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Znate, već smo u krivu,
05:49
we're already in trouble,
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već smo u nevolji,
05:51
but we feel like we're on solid ground.
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ali osjećamo kao da smo na čvrstom tlu.
05:55
So I should actually correct something I said a moment ago.
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Trebala bih stoga ispraviti ono što sam maločas rekla.
05:58
It does feel like something to be wrong;
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Kada smo u krivu to se osjeća,
06:01
it feels like being right.
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osjeća se kao da smo u pravu.
06:04
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:07
So this is one reason, a structural reason,
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Dakle to je razlog, strukturni razlog,
06:10
why we get stuck inside this feeling of rightness.
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zašto zaglavimo unutar osjećaja ispravnosti.
06:12
I call this error blindness.
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Zovem to sljepoća za pogrešku
06:14
Most of the time,
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Većinu vremena,
06:16
we don't have any kind of internal cue
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nemamo neki unutarnji pokazivač
06:19
to let us know that we're wrong about something,
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koji bi nam dao do znanja da smo u krivu u vezi nečega
06:21
until it's too late.
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sve dok nije prekasno.
06:24
But there's a second reason that we get stuck inside this feeling as well --
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No postoji još i drugi razlog zašto zaglavimo unutar tog osjećaja --
06:27
and this one is cultural.
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a taj je kulturološki.
06:30
Think back for a moment to elementary school.
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Sjetite se nakratko osnovne škole.
06:33
You're sitting there in class,
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Sjedite u učionici
06:35
and your teacher is handing back quiz papers,
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i učitelj vam vraća rezultate kontrolne zadaće,
06:38
and one of them looks like this.
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i jedna izgleda ovako.
06:40
This is not mine, by the way.
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Usput, nije moja.
06:42
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:44
So there you are in grade school,
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U osnovnoj školi ste
06:47
and you know exactly what to think
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i točno znate što misliti
06:49
about the kid who got this paper.
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o djetetu koje je dobilo ovaj papir.
06:52
It's the dumb kid, the troublemaker,
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To je glupo dijete, ono koje radi nevolje,
06:55
the one who never does his homework.
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ono koje nikad ne napravi zadaću.
06:58
So by the time you are nine years old,
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Dakle, do vaše devete godine
07:01
you've already learned, first of all,
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vi ste već naučili da su, kao prvo,
07:03
that people who get stuff wrong
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ljudi koji štogod krivo shvate
07:05
are lazy, irresponsible dimwits --
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lijeni, neodgovorni tupavci --
07:08
and second of all,
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i kao drugo,
07:10
that the way to succeed in life
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put uspjeha u životu
07:12
is to never make any mistakes.
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je nikada ne griješiti.
07:16
We learn these really bad lessons really well.
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Učimo ove stvarno loše lekcije vrlo dobro.
07:21
And a lot of us --
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I mnogi od nas -
07:23
and I suspect, especially a lot of us in this room --
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slutim, posebice mnogi od nas u ovoj prostoriji --
07:27
deal with them by just becoming
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nosili su se s njima tako da su postali
07:29
perfect little A students,
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savršeni mali odlikaši,
07:31
perfectionists, over-achievers.
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perfekcionisti, nadareni.
07:34
Right,
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Zar ne,
07:36
Mr. CFO, astrophysicist, ultra-marathoner?
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gospodine glavni financijski direktore, astrofizičaru, ultramaratonče?
07:40
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:47
You're all CFO, astrophysicists, ultra-marathoners, it turns out.
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Ispada da ste svi glavni financijski direktori, astrofizičari, ultramaratonci.
07:51
Okay, so fine.
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OK, pa dobro.
07:53
Except that then we freak out
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Osim što pošizimo
07:56
at the possibility that we've gotten something wrong.
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zbog mogućnosti da smo u nečemu pogriješili.
07:58
Because according to this,
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Jer prema ovome,
08:01
getting something wrong
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ako u nečem pogriješimo
08:03
means there's something wrong with us.
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znači da nešto nije u redu s nama.
08:06
So we just insist that we're right,
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Pa zato inzistiramo na tome da smo u pravu
08:08
because it makes us feel smart and responsible
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jer se zbog toga osjećamo pametno i odgovorno,
08:10
and virtuous and safe.
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i savršeno, i sigurno.
08:14
So let me tell you a story.
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Ispričat ću vam priču.
08:16
A couple of years ago,
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Prije nekoliko godina
08:18
a woman comes into Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center for a surgery.
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jedna je žena došla u Beth Israel Deaconess medicinski centar na operaciju.
08:21
Beth Israel's in Boston.
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Beth Israel je u Bostonu.
08:23
It's the teaching hospital for Harvard --
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To je harvardova sveučilišna bolnica --
08:25
one of the best hospitals in the country.
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i jedna od najboljih bolnica u zemlji.
08:27
So this woman comes in and she's taken into the operating room.
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Žena ulazi i odvode je u operacijsku salu.
08:30
She's anesthetized, the surgeon does his thing --
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Daju joj anesteziju, kirurg obavi svoj posao --
08:32
stitches her back up, sends her out to the recovery room.
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zašije ju i pošalje u sobu za intenzivnu njegu.
08:35
Everything seems to have gone fine.
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Čini se da je sve prošlo u redu.
08:38
And she wakes up, and she looks down at herself,
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Ona se budi i pogleda dolje na sebe,
08:41
and she says, "Why is the wrong side of my body in bandages?"
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i kaže: "Zašto je kriva strana mog tijela u zavojima?"
08:45
Well the wrong side of her body is in bandages
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Pa kriva strana njenog tijela je u zavojima
08:48
because the surgeon has performed a major operation
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zato što je kirurg izvršio ozbiljnu operaciju
08:50
on her left leg instead of her right one.
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na njenoj lijevoj umjesto na desnoj nozi.
08:54
When the vice president for health care quality at Beth Israel
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Kada je zamjenik predsjednika za kvalitetu zdravstvene skrbi u bolnici Beth Israel
08:57
spoke about this incident,
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govorio o ovom incidentu
09:00
he said something very interesting.
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rekao je nešto vrlo zanimljivo.
09:03
He said, "For whatever reason,
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Rekao je: "Zbog nekog razloga
09:06
the surgeon simply felt
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kirurg je jednostavno osjećao
09:08
that he was on the correct side of the patient."
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da je na pravoj strani pacijenta."
09:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:15
The point of this story
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Smisao ove priče
09:17
is that trusting too much in the feeling
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je da prevelika vjera u osjećaj
09:20
of being on the correct side of anything
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da smo na pravoj strani bilo čega
09:23
can be very dangerous.
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može biti vrlo opasna.
09:26
This internal sense of rightness
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Taj unutarnji osjećaj ispravnosti
09:29
that we all experience so often
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kojeg svi tako često osjećamo
09:31
is not a reliable guide
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nije pouzdan vodič
09:33
to what is actually going on in the external world.
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za ono što se događa u vanjskom svijetu.
09:36
And when we act like it is,
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I kad se ponašamo ovako
09:38
and we stop entertaining the possibility that we could be wrong,
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i prestanemo propitivati mogućnost da smo možda u krivu,
09:42
well that's when we end up doing things
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tada zaglavimo čineći stvari
09:44
like dumping 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico,
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poput izlijevanja 757 milijuna litara nafte u Meksički zaljev,
09:48
or torpedoing the global economy.
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ili torpediramo globalnu ekonomiju.
09:52
So this is a huge practical problem.
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To je ogroman praktični problem.
09:55
But it's also a huge social problem.
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Ali također i ogroman društveni problem.
09:58
Think for a moment about what it means to feel right.
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Razmislite na trenutak o tome što znači osjećati da si u pravu.
10:02
It means that you think that your beliefs
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To znači da mislite da vaša uvjerenja
10:04
just perfectly reflect reality.
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savršeno odražavaju stvarnost.
10:07
And when you feel that way,
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A kad se osjećate tako,
10:09
you've got a problem to solve,
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imate problem koji treba riješiti,
10:11
which is, how are you going to explain
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a taj je, kako objašnjavate
10:13
all of those people who disagree with you?
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sve one ljude koji se ne slažu s vama?
10:16
It turns out, most of us explain those people the same way,
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Čini se da većina nas takve ljude objašnjava na jednak način,
10:19
by resorting to a series of unfortunate assumptions.
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pribjegavajući nizu nesretnih pretpostavki.
10:23
The first thing we usually do when someone disagrees with us
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Prvo što činimo kad se netko ne slaže s nama
10:26
is we just assume they're ignorant.
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je da pretpostavimo da su takvi ljudi neuki.
10:29
They don't have access to the same information that we do,
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Nemaju pristup do iste informacije kao mi
10:31
and when we generously share that information with them,
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pa kad velikodušno s njima podijelimo tu informaciju,
10:34
they're going to see the light and come on over to our team.
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oni će ugledati svjetlo i prijeći u našu ekipu.
10:37
When that doesn't work,
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Kad to ne uspije,
10:40
when it turns out those people have all the same facts that we do
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kad ispadne da ti ljudi raspolažu istim činjenicama kao i mi
10:42
and they still disagree with us,
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i da se i dalje ne slažu s nama
10:44
then we move on to a second assumption,
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tada krećemo na drugu pretpostavku
10:46
which is that they're idiots.
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koja je da su idioti.
10:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:50
They have all the right pieces of the puzzle,
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Imaju sve prave dijelove slagalice,
10:52
and they are too moronic to put them together correctly.
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ali su preblesavi da ih ispravno sastave.
10:55
And when that doesn't work,
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A kada ni to ne upali,
10:57
when it turns out that people who disagree with us
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kad se ispostavi da ljudi koji se s nama ne slažu
11:00
have all the same facts we do
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i imaju sve iste činjenice kao i mi
11:02
and are actually pretty smart,
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i zapravo su vrlo pametni,
11:05
then we move on to a third assumption:
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tada krećemo na treću pretpostavku:
11:08
they know the truth,
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oni znaju istinu
11:11
and they are deliberately distorting it
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ali je namjerno iskrivljavaju
11:13
for their own malevolent purposes.
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za vlastite zlonamjerne svrhe.
11:17
So this is a catastrophe.
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Pa to je katastrofa.
11:19
This attachment to our own rightness
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Ta privrženost našoj ispravnosti
11:22
keeps us from preventing mistakes
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drži nas podalje od sprječavanja pogrešaka
11:24
when we absolutely need to
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kada je to zaista potrebno
11:26
and causes us to treat each other terribly.
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i uzrokuje grozno ponašanje jednih prema drugima.
11:30
But to me, what's most baffling
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Meni najčudnije
11:32
and most tragic about this
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i najtragičnije u vezi toga
11:35
is that it misses the whole point of being human.
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je da promašuje bit ljudskosti.
11:39
It's like we want to imagine
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To je kao da želimo zamisliti
11:41
that our minds are just these perfectly translucent windows
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da su naši umovi samo savršeno providni prozori
11:44
and we just gaze out of them
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i mi samo gledamo kroz njih
11:46
and describe the world as it unfolds.
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i opisujemo svijet kao što se odvija.
11:49
And we want everybody else to gaze out of the same window
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I želimo da svi drugi gledaju kroz taj isti prozor
11:51
and see the exact same thing.
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i vide upravo istu stvar.
11:53
That is not true,
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To nije istina,
11:55
and if it were, life would be incredibly boring.
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a kad bi i bila, život bi bio iznimno dosadan.
11:58
The miracle of your mind
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Čudo vašeg uma
12:01
isn't that you can see the world as it is.
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nije da vidite svijet kakav on jest.
12:05
It's that you can see the world as it isn't.
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Nego da vidite svijet kakav nije.
12:09
We can remember the past,
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Možemo upamtiti prošlost,
12:11
and we can think about the future,
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možemo razmišljati o budućnosti,
12:14
and we can imagine what it's like
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i zamišljati kako je to
12:16
to be some other person in some other place.
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biti neka druga osoba na nekom drugom mjestu.
12:19
And we all do this a little differently,
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I svi mi to radimo malo drugačije
12:21
which is why we can all look up at the same night sky
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i zato svi možemo gledati isto zvjezdano nebo
12:23
and see this
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i vidjeti ovo
12:25
and also this
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i ovo također
12:27
and also this.
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a i ovo.
12:30
And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong.
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I da, zbog toga neke stvari pogrešno shvaćamo.
12:34
1,200 years before Descartes said his famous thing
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Prije 1.200 godina Descartes je rekao poznatu rečenicu
12:36
about "I think therefore I am,"
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"Mislim, dakle jesam,"
12:38
this guy, St. Augustine, sat down
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ovaj tip, Sveti Augustin, sjeo je
12:40
and wrote "Fallor ergo sum" --
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i napisao " Fallor ergo sum" --
12:43
"I err therefore I am."
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"Griješim, dakle jesam."
12:47
Augustine understood
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Augustin je razumio
12:49
that our capacity to screw up,
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da naša sposobnost da zabrljamo
12:51
it's not some kind of embarrassing defect
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nije neka vrsta sramotnog defekta
12:53
in the human system,
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u ljudskom sustavu,
12:55
something we can eradicate or overcome.
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nešto što možemo iskorijeniti ili pobijediti.
12:58
It's totally fundamental to who we are.
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Ona je temelj onoga što jesmo.
13:01
Because, unlike God,
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Zato što za razliku od Boga
13:03
we don't really know what's going on out there.
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mi ne znamo što se doista događa vani.
13:06
And unlike all of the other animals,
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I za razliku od svih drugih životinja
13:09
we are obsessed with trying to figure it out.
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mi smo opsjednuti pokušajima da shvatimo.
13:13
To me, this obsession
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Za mene, ta opsjednutost
13:15
is the source and root
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je izvor i korijen
13:17
of all of our productivity and creativity.
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sve naše produktivnosti i kreativnosti.
13:20
Last year, for various reasons,
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Prošle godine, zbog različitih razloga,
13:23
I found myself listening to a lot of episodes
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slušala sam mnoge epizode
13:25
of the Public Radio show This American Life.
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emisije Javnog radija "This American Life".
13:27
And so I'm listening and I'm listening,
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I tako slušam ja i slušam,
13:30
and at some point, I start feeling
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i u nekom sam trenutku počela osjećati
13:33
like all the stories are about being wrong.
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kao da su sve priče o ljudima koji su u krivu.
13:37
And my first thought was,
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I moja je prva misao bila,
13:39
"I've lost it.
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"Izgubila sam.
13:41
I've become the crazy wrongness lady.
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Postala sam luda, greškama opsjednuta žena.
13:43
I just imagined it everywhere,"
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Zamišljam to posvuda,"
13:45
which has happened.
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što se i dogodilo.
13:47
But a couple of months later,
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Ali nekoliko mjeseci poslije
13:49
I actually had a chance to interview Ira Glass, who's the host of the show.
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imala sam priliku intervjuirati Ira Glassa, voditelja emisije.
13:51
And I mentioned this to him,
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I spomenula sam mu to
13:53
and he was like, "No actually, that's true.
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i on mi reče: "Zapravo, to je istina."
13:56
In fact," he says,
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"Zapravo", reče,
13:58
"as a staff, we joke
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"ekipa se šali
14:00
that every single episode of our show
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da baš svaka epizoda našeg šoua
14:02
has the same crypto-theme.
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ima istu skrivenu temu.
14:05
And the crypto-theme is:
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A ta skrivena tema je:
14:07
'I thought this one thing was going to happen
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'Mislio sam da će se dogoditi nešto
14:10
and something else happened instead.'
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a dogodilo se nešto drugo umjesto toga.'
14:13
And the thing is," says Ira Glass, "we need this.
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"U biti", kaže Ira Glass, "mi to trebamo."
14:16
We need these moments
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"Trebamo te trenutke
14:18
of surprise and reversal and wrongness
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iznenađenja, i preokrete, i pogrešnosti
14:20
to make these stories work."
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da bi te priče imale uspjeh."
14:22
And for the rest of us, audience members,
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A mi ostali, publika,
14:24
as listeners, as readers,
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kao slušatelji, kao čitatelji
14:27
we eat this stuff up.
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mi gutamo takve priče.
14:29
We love things like plot twists
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Volimo zaplete radnji
14:32
and red herrings and surprise endings.
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i lažne tragove, i neočekivane završetke.
14:35
When it comes to our stories,
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Kada je riječ o našim pričama,
14:38
we love being wrong.
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volimo biti u krivu.
14:41
But, you know, our stories are like this
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Ali, znate, naše su priče ovakve
14:43
because our lives are like this.
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jer su naši životi takvi.
14:46
We think this one thing is going to happen
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Mislimo da će se dogoditi jedno
14:49
and something else happens instead.
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a umjesto toga dogodi se nešto drugo.
14:52
George Bush thought he was going to invade Iraq,
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George Bush je mislio da će napasti Irak,
14:54
find a bunch of weapons of mass destruction,
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pronaći gomilu oružja za masovno uništenje,
14:56
liberate the people and bring democracy to the Middle East.
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osloboditi narod i uvesti demokraciju na Bliski Istok.
15:00
And something else happened instead.
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A umjesto toga dogodilo se nešto drugo.
15:03
And Hosni Mubarak
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I Hosni Mubarak
15:05
thought he was going to be the dictator of Egypt for the rest of his life,
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je mislio da će biti diktator Egipta do kraja života,
15:07
until he got too old or too sick
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sve dok ne bude prestar ili prebolestan
15:09
and could pass the reigns of power onto his son.
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i dok ne bude mogao prenijeti vlast na svog sina.
15:12
And something else happened instead.
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I umjesto toga dogodilo se nešto drugo.
15:16
And maybe you thought
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I možda ste vi mislili
15:18
you were going to grow up and marry your high school sweetheart
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da ćete odrasti i vjenčati se sa starom ljubavi iz školskih dana
15:20
and move back to your hometown and raise a bunch of kids together.
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i vratiti se u rodni grad i zajedno odgojiti mnogo djece.
15:24
And something else happened instead.
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I dogodilo se nešto drugo umjesto toga.
15:27
And I have to tell you
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I moram vam reći
15:29
that I thought I was writing an incredibly nerdy book
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da sam mislila da pišem izuzetno glupu knjigu
15:31
about a subject everybody hates
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o temi koju svi mrze
15:33
for an audience that would never materialize.
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za publiku koja nikad neće postojati.
15:36
And something else happened instead.
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I umjesto toga dogodilo se nešto drugo.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:40
I mean, this is life.
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Mislim, to je život.
15:42
For good and for ill,
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U dobru i zlu,
15:44
we generate these incredible stories
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mi stvaramo te nevjerojatne priče
15:47
about the world around us,
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o svijetu oko nas,
15:49
and then the world turns around and astonishes us.
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a onda se svijet okrene i zadivi nas.
15:55
No offense, but this entire conference
347
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Bez uvrede, ali cijela ova konferencija
15:58
is an unbelievable monument
348
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je nevjerojatan spomenik
16:00
to our capacity to get stuff wrong.
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našeg kapaciteta da stvari odu ukrivo.
16:02
We just spent an entire week
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Proveli smo cijeli tjedan
16:04
talking about innovations and advancements
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govoreći o inovacijama i napretku,
16:06
and improvements,
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i poboljšanjima,
16:08
but you know why we need all of those innovations
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ali znate zašto trebamo sve te inovacije,
16:11
and advancements and improvements?
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i napredak, i poboljšanja?
16:13
Because half the stuff
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Zato što pola od toga
16:15
that's the most mind-boggling and world-altering --
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što je najzbunjujuće i najrevolucionarnije --
16:18
TED 1998 --
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TED 1998. --
16:20
eh.
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eh.
16:22
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:26
Didn't really work out that way, did it?
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Nije baš ispalo tako kako smo zamišljali, zar ne?
16:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:30
Where's my jet pack, Chris?
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Gdje je moje leteće odijelo, Chris?
16:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:37
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:42
So here we are again.
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I evo nas opet.
16:45
And that's how it goes.
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I tako to ide.
16:47
We come up with another idea.
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Lansiramo neku drugu ideju.
16:49
We tell another story.
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Ispričamo neku drugu priču.
16:52
We hold another conference.
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Održimo drugu konferenciju.
16:55
The theme of this one,
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Tema ove je,
16:57
as you guys have now heard seven million times,
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kao što ste dosad čuli već sedam milijuna puta,
16:59
is the rediscovery of wonder.
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je ponovno otkrivanje čuda.
17:01
And to me,
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I za mene to znači,
17:03
if you really want to rediscover wonder,
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ako stvarno želite ponovno otkriti čudo
17:06
you need to step outside
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morate izići
17:08
of that tiny, terrified space of rightness
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iz tog malenog, strašnog mjesta ispravnosti
17:14
and look around at each other
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i pogledati uokolo jedni u druge
17:17
and look out at the vastness
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i pogledati u prostranstvo
17:20
and complexity and mystery
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i složenost, i misterij
17:23
of the universe
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univerzuma
17:26
and be able to say,
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i biti u stanju reći:
17:29
"Wow, I don't know.
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"Vau, ne znam.
17:33
Maybe I'm wrong."
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Možda sam u krivu."
17:35
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:37
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
17:40
Thank you guys.
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Hvala vam.
17:42
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)

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