On being wrong | Kathryn Schulz

譯者: Coco Shen 審譯者: Geoff Chen

So it's 1995,

當時是95年

I'm in college,

我在上大學

and a friend and I go on a road trip

我和一個朋友開車去玩

from Providence, Rhode Island

從羅德島的普羅旺斯區出發

to Portland, Oregon.

到奧勒岡州的波特蘭市

And you know, we're young and unemployed,

我們年輕，無業

so we do the whole thing on back roads

於是整個旅程都在鄉間小道

through state parks

經過州立公園

and national forests --

和國家保護森林

basically the longest route we can possibly take.

我們盡可能繞著最長的路徑

And somewhere in the middle of South Dakota,

在南達科塔州之中某處

I turn to my friend

我轉向我的朋友

and I ask her a question

問她一個

that's been bothering me

兩千英里路途上

for 2,000 miles.

一直煩惱我的問題

"What's up with the Chinese character I keep seeing by the side of the road?"

"路邊那個一直出現的中文字到底是什麼?"

My friend looks at me totally blankly.

我的朋友露出疑惑的神情

There's actually a gentleman in the front row

正如現在坐在第一排的這三位男士

who's doing a perfect imitation of her look.

所露出的神情一樣

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I'm like, "You know,

我說"你知道的

all the signs we keep seeing

我們一直看到的那個路牌

with the Chinese character on them."

寫著中文的那個啊"

She just stares at me for a few moments,

她瞪著我的臉一陣子

and then she cracks up,

突然笑開了

because she figures out what I'm talking about.

因為她總算知道我所指為何

And what I'm talking about is this.

我說的是這個

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Right, the famous Chinese character for picnic area.

沒錯，這就是代表野餐區的那個中文字

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I've spent the last five years of my life

過去的五年

thinking about situations

我一直在思考

exactly like this --

剛剛我所描述的狀況

why we sometimes misunderstand

為什麼我們會對身邊的徵兆

the signs around us,

產生誤解

and how we behave when that happens,

當誤解發生時我們作何反應

and what all of this can tell us about human nature.

以及這一切所告訴我們的人性

In other words, as you heard Chris say,

換句話說，就像 Chris 剛才說的

I've spent the last five years

過去五年的時間

thinking about being wrong.

我都在思考錯誤的價值

This might strike you as a strange career move,

你可能覺得這是個奇異的專業

but it actually has one great advantage:

但有一項好處是不容置疑的：

no job competition.

沒有競爭者。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

In fact, most of us do everything we can

事實上，我們大部分的人

to avoid thinking about being wrong,

都盡力不思考錯誤的價值

or at least to avoid thinking about the possibility

或至少避免想到我們

that we ourselves are wrong.

有可能犯錯。

We get it in the abstract.

我們都知道這個模糊的概念。

We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes.

我們都知道這裡的每個人都曾經犯錯

The human species, in general, is fallible -- okay fine.

人類本來就會犯錯 － 沒問題

But when it comes down to me, right now,

一旦這個想法臨到我們自身

to all the beliefs I hold,

我們現在所有的

here in the present tense,

所有的信念

suddenly all of this abstract appreciation of fallibility

對人類可能犯錯的抽象概念

goes out the window --

隨即被我們拋棄

and I can't actually think of anything I'm wrong about.

我無法想到我有哪裡出錯

And the thing is, the present tense is where we live.

但是，我們活在現在

We go to meetings in the present tense;

我們開會，去家庭旅遊

we go on family vacations in the present tense;

去投票

we go to the polls and vote in the present tense.

全都是現在式

So effectively, we all kind of wind up traveling through life,

我們就像現在一個小泡泡裡

trapped in this little bubble

經歷人生

of feeling very right about everything.

感覺自己總是對的

I think this is a problem.

我認為這是個問題

I think it's a problem for each of us as individuals,

我認為這是每個人私人生活

in our personal and professional lives,

和職業生活中的問題

and I think it's a problem for all of us collectively as a culture.

我認為我們身為群體，這也造成了文化問題

So what I want to do today

於是，我今天想做的是

is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck

先談談為甚麼我們會

inside this feeling of being right.

陷在這種自以為是的心態中

And second, why it's such a problem.

第二是為甚麼這是個問題

And finally, I want to convince you

最後我想說服大家

that it is possible

克服這種感覺

to step outside of that feeling

是可能的

and that if you can do so,

而且一旦你做到了

it is the single greatest

這將成為你道德上

moral, intellectual and creative leap you can make.

智性上和創意上最大的進步

So why do we get stuck

為甚麼我們會陷在

in this feeling of being right?

這種自以為是的心態中？

One reason, actually, has to do with a feeling of being wrong.

事實上這和犯錯的感覺有關

So let me ask you guys something --

我想問問你們

or actually, let me ask you guys something, because you're right here:

讓我問問台上的你們

How does it feel -- emotionally --

當你意識到自己犯錯了

how does it feel to be wrong?

你感覺如何？

Dreadful. Thumbs down.

糟透了。很差勁。

Embarrassing. Okay, wonderful, great.

難堪。很好，是的。

Dreadful, thumbs down, embarrassing --

很糟糕，很差勁，很難堪。

thank you, these are great answers,

謝謝你們提供這些答案

but they're answers to a different question.

但這些答案沒有回答我的問題

You guys are answering the question:

你們回答的問題是：

How does it feel to realize you're wrong?

當你意識到你犯錯的時候，你的感覺如何？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Realizing you're wrong can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right?

意識到你犯錯了就會有剛剛所說的這些感覺，不是嗎？

I mean it can be devastating, it can be revelatory,

令人沮喪，暴露了一些真實

it can actually be quite funny,

有時候甚至有些好笑

like my stupid Chinese character mistake.

像我誤以為路牌是中文字

But just being wrong

但犯錯本身

doesn't feel like anything.

事實上毫無感覺

I'll give you an analogy.

讓我給你一個例子

Do you remember that Loony Tunes cartoon

你記得卡通裡

where there's this pathetic coyote

那個總是在追逐

who's always chasing and never catching a roadrunner?

卻從未抓到獵物的土狼嗎？

In pretty much every episode of this cartoon,

幾乎在每一集裡

there's a moment where the coyote is chasing the roadrunner

牠的獵物 － 一隻走鵑鳥

and the roadrunner runs off a cliff,

都會跳下懸崖

which is fine -- he's a bird, he can fly.

反正牠是鳥，牠可以飛

But the thing is, the coyote runs off the cliff right after him.

但土狼也會跟著牠一起跳崖

And what's funny --

那很好笑

at least if you're six years old --

如果你是個六歲兒童

is that the coyote's totally fine too.

土狼也很好

He just keeps running --

牠就這麼繼續跑

right up until the moment that he looks down

直到牠往下看

and realizes that he's in mid-air.

發現自己漫步在空中

That's when he falls.

這時候他才會往下掉

When we're wrong about something --

在我們犯錯時

not when we realize it, but before that --

在我們意識到我們犯錯時

we're like that coyote

我們就像那隻土狼

after he's gone off the cliff and before he looks down.

還沒意識到自己奔出懸崖

You know, we're already wrong,

我們已經錯了

we're already in trouble,

已經惹上麻煩了

but we feel like we're on solid ground.

但仍然感覺像走在地上

So I should actually correct something I said a moment ago.

我應該改變我之前的說法

It does feel like something to be wrong;

犯錯的感覺就和

it feels like being right.

正確的感覺一樣

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So this is one reason, a structural reason,

事實上我們這種自以為對的感受

why we get stuck inside this feeling of rightness.

是有構造性的原因的

I call this error blindness.

我稱之為錯誤盲點

Most of the time,

大部份的時間裡

we don't have any kind of internal cue

我們身體裡沒有任何機制

to let us know that we're wrong about something,

提醒我們錯了

until it's too late.

直到木已成舟

But there's a second reason that we get stuck inside this feeling as well --

但還有第二個理由

and this one is cultural.

文化性的理由

Think back for a moment to elementary school.

回想小學時代

You're sitting there in class,

你坐在課堂裡

and your teacher is handing back quiz papers,

你的老師發回小考考卷

and one of them looks like this.

像這樣的小考考卷

This is not mine, by the way.

雖然這張不是我的

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So there you are in grade school,

你從小學時代

and you know exactly what to think

就知道該對拿這張考卷的同學

about the kid who got this paper.

下甚麼評語

It's the dumb kid, the troublemaker,

笨蛋，搗蛋鬼

the one who never does his homework.

從不做功課的壞學生

So by the time you are nine years old,

你不過才九歲

you've already learned, first of all,

你已經懂得，首先

that people who get stuff wrong

那些犯錯的人

are lazy, irresponsible dimwits --

都是懶惰、不負責任的傻瓜

and second of all,

第二

that the way to succeed in life

想要在人生中成功

is to never make any mistakes.

就不要犯錯

We learn these really bad lessons really well.

我們很早就得到這些錯誤訊息

And a lot of us --

而我們

and I suspect, especially a lot of us in this room --

尤其是這個大廳裡的許多人

deal with them by just becoming

都因此成為好學生

perfect little A students,

拿全A

perfectionists, over-achievers.

完美主義、永不滿意

Right,

不是嗎？

Mr. CFO, astrophysicist, ultra-marathoner?

財務長、天體物理學家、超級馬拉松先生們？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You're all CFO, astrophysicists, ultra-marathoners, it turns out.

結果是你們全成了財務長、天體物理學家、跑超級馬拉松

Okay, so fine.

那很好

Except that then we freak out

但一旦我們發現有可能犯錯

at the possibility that we've gotten something wrong.

就開始手足無措

Because according to this,

因為依照規定

getting something wrong

犯錯

means there's something wrong with us.

代表我們一定也有甚麼不對勁

So we just insist that we're right,

於是我們堅持己見

because it makes us feel smart and responsible

因為那讓我們感覺聰明、得體

and virtuous and safe.

安全和可靠

So let me tell you a story.

讓我告訴你們一個故事

A couple of years ago,

幾年前

a woman comes into Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center for a surgery.

一個女人到 Beth Israel Deaconess 診所做手術

Beth Israel's in Boston.

Beth Israel 在波士頓

It's the teaching hospital for Harvard --

是哈佛大學的教學附屬醫院

one of the best hospitals in the country.

全國數一數二的醫療中心

So this woman comes in and she's taken into the operating room.

這個女人被送進開刀房

She's anesthetized, the surgeon does his thing --

麻醉，外科醫生做完手術

stitches her back up, sends her out to the recovery room.

縫合，將她送進恢復室

Everything seems to have gone fine.

一切看上去都很好

And she wakes up, and she looks down at herself,

她醒來，往自己身上一看

and she says, "Why is the wrong side of my body in bandages?"

說“為甚麼我的左腿綁著繃帶？”

Well the wrong side of her body is in bandages

她應該接受治療的是右腿

because the surgeon has performed a major operation

但為他做手術的外科醫生

on her left leg instead of her right one.

卻把刀開在左腿

When the vice president for health care quality at Beth Israel

當副院長出來為醫院的醫療品質

spoke about this incident,

和這次意外做出解釋時

he said something very interesting.

他說了句很有趣的話

He said, "For whatever reason,

他說“無論如何

the surgeon simply felt

這位外科醫生感覺

that he was on the correct side of the patient."

他開下的刀是在正確的一側”

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The point of this story

故事的重點是

is that trusting too much in the feeling

相信自己的判斷力

of being on the correct side of anything

相信自己站在對的一邊

can be very dangerous.

是非常危險的

This internal sense of rightness

我們心中時常感覺到的

that we all experience so often

理直氣壯的感覺

is not a reliable guide

在真實世界中

to what is actually going on in the external world.

並不是個可靠的嚮導。

And when we act like it is,

當我們依此行事

and we stop entertaining the possibility that we could be wrong,

不再思考我們是否犯錯

well that's when we end up doing things

我們就有可能

like dumping 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico,

把兩百灣加侖的石油倒進墨西哥灣

or torpedoing the global economy.

或是顛覆世界經濟

So this is a huge practical problem.

這是個很實際的問題

But it's also a huge social problem.

這也是個很大的社會問題

Think for a moment about what it means to feel right.

“感覺對”究竟是什麼意思

It means that you think that your beliefs

這代表著你認為你的信念

just perfectly reflect reality.

和真實是一致的

And when you feel that way,

當你有這種感覺的時候

you've got a problem to solve,

你的問題就大了

which is, how are you going to explain

因為如果你是對的

all of those people who disagree with you?

為甚麼還有人和你持不同意見？

It turns out, most of us explain those people the same way,

於是我們往往用同一種

by resorting to a series of unfortunate assumptions.

思考方式去解釋這些異議

The first thing we usually do when someone disagrees with us

第一是當他人不同意我們的說法

is we just assume they're ignorant.

我們便覺得他們無知

They don't have access to the same information that we do,

他們不像我們懂得這麼多

and when we generously share that information with them,

當我們慷慨地和他們分享我們的知識

they're going to see the light and come on over to our team.

他們便會理解，並加入我們的行列

When that doesn't work,

如果不是這樣

when it turns out those people have all the same facts that we do

如果這些人和我們獲得的資訊一樣多

and they still disagree with us,

卻仍然不認同我們

then we move on to a second assumption,

我們便有了下一個定論

which is that they're idiots.

那就是他們是白癡

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

They have all the right pieces of the puzzle,

他們已經有了所有的資訊

and they are too moronic to put them together correctly.

卻笨到無法拼湊出正確的圖像

And when that doesn't work,

一旦第二個定論也不成立

when it turns out that people who disagree with us

當這些反對我們的人

have all the same facts we do

和我們有一樣的資訊

and are actually pretty smart,

又聰明

then we move on to a third assumption:

我們便有了第三個結論

they know the truth,

他們知道事實是甚麼

and they are deliberately distorting it

但卻為了自己的好處

for their own malevolent purposes.

故意曲解真實。

So this is a catastrophe.

這真是個大災難

This attachment to our own rightness

我們的自以為是

keeps us from preventing mistakes

讓我們在最需要的時候

when we absolutely need to

無法預防犯錯

and causes us to treat each other terribly.

更讓我們互相仇視

But to me, what's most baffling

對我來說

and most tragic about this

最大的悲劇是

is that it misses the whole point of being human.

它讓我們錯失了身為人的珍貴意義

It's like we want to imagine

那就像是想像

that our minds are just these perfectly translucent windows

我們的心靈之窗完全透明

and we just gaze out of them

我們向外觀看

and describe the world as it unfolds.

描述在我們之前展開的世界

And we want everybody else to gaze out of the same window

我們想要每個人和我們有一樣的窗子

and see the exact same thing.

對世界做出一樣的觀察

That is not true,

那不是真的

and if it were, life would be incredibly boring.

如果是，人生將會多麼無聊

The miracle of your mind

心靈的神奇之處

isn't that you can see the world as it is.

不在你懂得這個世界是甚麼樣子

It's that you can see the world as it isn't.

而是去理解那些你不懂的地方

We can remember the past,

我們記得過去

and we can think about the future,

思考未來

and we can imagine what it's like

我們想像

to be some other person in some other place.

自己成為他人，在他方

And we all do this a little differently,

我們的想像都有些不同

which is why we can all look up at the same night sky

於是當我們抬頭看同一個夜空

and see this

我們看到這個

and also this

這個

and also this.

和這個

And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong.

這也是我們搞錯事情的原因

1,200 years before Descartes said his famous thing

在笛卡兒說出那句有名的”我思故我在“

about "I think therefore I am,"

的一千兩百年前

this guy, St. Augustine, sat down

聖奧古斯丁，坐下來

and wrote "Fallor ergo sum" --

寫下"Fallor ergo sum"

"I err therefore I am."

"我錯故我在"

Augustine understood

奧古斯丁懂得

that our capacity to screw up,

我們犯錯的能力

it's not some kind of embarrassing defect

這並不是人性中

in the human system,

一個令人難堪的缺陷

something we can eradicate or overcome.

不是我們可以克服或消滅的

It's totally fundamental to who we are.

這是我們的本質

Because, unlike God,

因為我們不是上帝

we don't really know what's going on out there.

我們不知道我們之外究竟發生了甚麼

And unlike all of the other animals,

而不同於其它動物的是

we are obsessed with trying to figure it out.

我們都瘋狂地想找出解答

To me, this obsession

對我來說

is the source and root

這種尋找的衝動

of all of our productivity and creativity.

就是我們生產力和創造力的來源

Last year, for various reasons,

因為一些緣故

I found myself listening to a lot of episodes

去年我在廣播上

of the Public Radio show This American Life.

聽了很多集的"我們的美國人生"

And so I'm listening and I'm listening,

我聽著聽著

and at some point, I start feeling

突然發現

like all the stories are about being wrong.

這些故事全和犯錯有關

And my first thought was,

我的第一個念頭是

"I've lost it.

“我完了

I've become the crazy wrongness lady.

我寫書寫瘋了

I just imagined it everywhere,"

四處都看到有關犯錯的幻覺”

which has happened.

說真的是這樣

But a couple of months later,

但幾個月後

I actually had a chance to interview Ira Glass, who's the host of the show.

我訪問了那個廣播節目的主持人 Ira Glass

And I mentioned this to him,

我向他提到這件事

and he was like, "No actually, that's true.

他回答我“事實上

In fact," he says,

你是對的”他說

"as a staff, we joke

“我們這些工作人員總是

that every single episode of our show

開玩笑說每集節目之中的

has the same crypto-theme.

祕密主題都是一樣的

And the crypto-theme is:

這個祕密主題就是

'I thought this one thing was going to happen

"我以為這件事會這樣發生

and something else happened instead.'

結果其它事情發生了"

And the thing is," says Ira Glass, "we need this.

他說“但是，這就是我們需要的

We need these moments

我們需要這些意外

of surprise and reversal and wrongness

這些顛倒和錯誤

to make these stories work."

這些故事才能成立。"

And for the rest of us, audience members,

而我們身為觀眾

as listeners, as readers,

聽眾、讀者

we eat this stuff up.

我們吸收這些故事

We love things like plot twists

我們喜歡故事轉折

and red herrings and surprise endings.

令人驚訝的結局

When it comes to our stories,

我們喜歡在故事裡

we love being wrong.

看到犯錯

But, you know, our stories are like this

但，故事會這樣寫

because our lives are like this.

是因為人生就是這樣

We think this one thing is going to happen

我們以為某些事情會這樣發生

and something else happens instead.

發生的卻是其它事

George Bush thought he was going to invade Iraq,

小布希以為他入侵伊拉克

find a bunch of weapons of mass destruction,

會找到大規模毀滅性武器

liberate the people and bring democracy to the Middle East.

解放中東百姓，為他們帶來民主自由

And something else happened instead.

但卻不是這樣

And Hosni Mubarak

穆巴拉克以為

thought he was going to be the dictator of Egypt for the rest of his life,

他到死都會是埃及的獨裁者

until he got too old or too sick

一直到他年老或臥病

and could pass the reigns of power onto his son.

再把他的權力交給下一代

And something else happened instead.

但卻不是這樣

And maybe you thought

或許你想過

you were going to grow up and marry your high school sweetheart

你會長大、嫁給你的初戀情人

and move back to your hometown and raise a bunch of kids together.

搬回老家，生一群孩子

And something else happened instead.

但卻不是這樣

And I have to tell you

我必須說

that I thought I was writing an incredibly nerdy book

我以為我寫的是一本很冷僻的書

about a subject everybody hates

有關一個人人討厭的主題

for an audience that would never materialize.

為一些從不存在的讀者

And something else happened instead.

但卻不是這樣

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I mean, this is life.

我們的人生

For good and for ill,

無論好壞

we generate these incredible stories

我們創造了啦

about the world around us,

那包圍我們的世界

and then the world turns around and astonishes us.

而世界轉過頭來，令我們大吃一驚

No offense, but this entire conference

說真的，這整個會議

is an unbelievable monument

充斥著這樣難以置信的時刻

to our capacity to get stuff wrong.

我們一次又一次地意識到自己的錯誤

We just spent an entire week

我們花了整整一週

talking about innovations and advancements

討論創新，進步

and improvements,

和改善

but you know why we need all of those innovations

你知道我們為甚麼需要這些創新

and advancements and improvements?

進步和改善嗎？

Because half the stuff

因為其中有一半

that's the most mind-boggling and world-altering --

來自最應該改變世界的

TED 1998 --

98年的TED

eh.

呃

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Didn't really work out that way, did it?

真是出人意料之外啊，不是嗎

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Where's my jet pack, Chris?

我的逃生火箭在哪，Chris?

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So here we are again.

於是我們又在這裡

And that's how it goes.

事情就是這樣

We come up with another idea.

我們重新想出其它點子

We tell another story.

我們有了新的故事

We hold another conference.

我們開了另一個會議

The theme of this one,

這次的主題是

as you guys have now heard seven million times,

如果你還沒有聽到耳朵出油的話

is the rediscovery of wonder.

是重新找到想像的力量

And to me,

對我來說

if you really want to rediscover wonder,

如果你真的想重新找到想像的力量

you need to step outside

你需要離開

of that tiny, terrified space of rightness

那個小小的、自我感覺良好的小圈圈

and look around at each other

看看彼此

and look out at the vastness

看看宇宙的

and complexity and mystery

廣大無垠

of the universe

複雜神祕

and be able to say,

然後真正地說

"Wow, I don't know.

“哇，我不知道

Maybe I'm wrong."

或許我錯了。”

Thank you.

謝謝各位

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Thank you guys.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）