The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Bill Gates | TED

Translator: Nazarbek Nazarov Reviewer: Azizbek Nazarov

When I was a kid,

Bolalik davrimizda biz hammasidan ham

the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war.

yadroviy urush boshlanishidan qo'rqar edik.

That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement,

Shu sabab hammaning yerto'lasida suv va konservalar

filled with cans of food and water.

to'ldirilgan bochkalar bo'lar edi.

When the nuclear attack came,

Yadroviy urush boshlangan taqdirda

we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.

pastga tushib, o'sha yerda o'tirib, bochkadagi zahiradan oziqlanishimiz uchun.

Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe

Hozirgi kunda eng katta global falokat

doesn't look like this.

bunday ko'rinishda emas.

Instead, it looks like this.

Endilikda uning ko'rinishi bunday.

If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades,

Yaqin o'nyilliklarda agar nimadir 10 million insonni o'ldirishga qodir

it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus

bo'lsa, katta ehtimol bilan u yuqori yuqumlilikka ega virusdir,

rather than a war.

urush emas.

Not missiles, but microbes.

Raketalar emas, mikroblar.

Now, part of the reason for this is that

Qisman buning asosiy sababi

we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents.

bizning hozirda yadroviy qurollarga juda katta pullar sarflayotganimizdir.

But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic.

Shu bilan birga epidemiyalar oldini olish uchun esa juda kam pul ajratmoqdamiz.

We're not ready for the next epidemic.

Biz keyingi epidemiya tarqalishiga tayyor emasmiz.

Let's look at Ebola.

Masalan, Ebola virusini olsak.

I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper,

Aminmanki, hammangiz bu haqda gazetalarda o'qigansiz -

lots of tough challenges.

u juda ko'p muammolar olib keldi.

I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools

Men uni poliomelitning yo'qolishini analiz qilishda qo'llanilgan usullar

we use to track polio eradication.

yordamida diqqat bilan kuzatib bordim.

And as you look at what went on,

Bunday bir holatda,

the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough,

muammo - tizimning yaxshi ishlamasligida emas,

the problem was that we didn't have a system at all.

bunday tizimning o'zi mavjud emasligida edi.

In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces.

Tizimda eng oddiy va kerakli qismlar yo'q edi.

We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone,

Bizda kasallik tarqalgan joyga borib uni o'rganishga va uning tarqalish darajasini

seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread.

aniqlashga tayyor turgan epidemiologlar yo'q edi.

The case reports came in on paper.

Kasallik holatlari haqida ma'lumotlar faqat qog'ozda edi.

It was very delayed before they were put online

Hisobotlarni onlayn tarzda juda katta kechikishlar

and they were extremely inaccurate.

va ko'plab xatoliklari bilan joylashardi.

We didn't have a medical team ready to go.

Bizda ishga shay turgan tibbiy jamoa yo'q edi.

We didn't have a way of preparing people.

Bizda mutahassislarni tayyorlaydigan metodlar yo'q edi.

Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers.

"Cheksiz Shifokorlar" volontyorlarni boshqarish vazifasini yaxshi uddalashdi.

But even so, we were far slower than we should have been

Shunday bo'lsa-da, zarar ko'rayotgan hududlarga minglab ishchi

getting the thousands of workers into these countries.

kuchi yuborish kerak bo'lgan bir vaqtda juda sekin harakat qildik.

And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers.

Katta epidemiya esa bizdan yuz minglab ishchilarni talab qiladi.

There was no one there to look at treatment approaches.

Zarar ko'rgan hududlarda davolash jarayonini boshqaradigan inson yo'q edi.

No one to look at the diagnostics.

Tashxisga ham hech kim qaramayotgan,

No one to figure out what tools should be used.

qanday davolashni hech kim tushunmayotgan edi.

As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors,

Masalan, sog'ayganlardan qon olib, uni qayta ishlab,

processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them.

plazmasini kasallarga virusdan himoya sifatida quyishimiz mumkin edi.

But that was never tried.

Biroq bu metod biror marta ham qo'llanilmadi.

So there was a lot that was missing.

Ko'p ishlar qilinishi mumkin edi.

And these things are really a global failure.

Aslida bu global masshatbdagi muvaffaqiyatsizlik edi.

The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about.

JSST epidemiyani kuzatish uchun moliyalash tirilgan, lekin yuqoridagilar uchun emas.

Now, in the movies it's quite different.

Filmlarda odatda hammasi boshqacha.

There's a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go,

Yordamga bir guruh kelishgan epidemiologlar yuboriladi,

they move in, they save the day, but that's just pure Hollywood.

ular yetib kelishadi, hammani qutqarishadi — lekin bu bor-yog'i Gollivud.

The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic

Agar biz keragicha tayyorgarlik ko'rmasak, keyingi epidemiya Ebolaga

to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola

qaraganda biz uchun sezilarli darajada halokatli bo'lishi mumkin.

Let's look at the progression of Ebola over this year.

Keling bu yilgi Ebolaning tarqalishi haqida ma'lumotlarni ko'rib chiqamiz.

About 10,000 people died,

Deyarli 10 000 ta inson halok bo'ldi,

and nearly all were in the three West African countries.

deyarli hammasi — G'arbiy Afrikaning uchta davlatidan.

There's three reasons why it didn't spread more.

Uning bundan ortiq tarqalmaganiga uchta sabab bor.

The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers.

Birinchisi, tibbiy xodimlarning qahramonona ish olib borganlari edi.

They found the people and they prevented more infections.

Ular kasallarni topishdi, virusning keng tarqalishini oldini olishdi.

The second is the nature of the virus.

Ikkinchisi, bu virusning alohida tabiati edi.

Ebola does not spread through the air.

Ebola havo orqali tarqalmaydi.

And by the time you're contagious,

Kasallanganlarning ahvoli shunchalik

most people are so sick that they're bedridden.

yomonlashrdiki, ular yotoqdan tura olishmas edi.

Third, it didn't get into many urban areas.

Uchinchisi, kasallik ko'plab shahar hududlariga yetib bormadi.

And that was just luck.

Bu shunchaki omad edi.

If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas,

Agar Ebola ko'plab shaharlar hududlariga yetib

the case numbers would have been much larger.

borganida, kasallanganlarning soni judayam yuqori bo'lar edi.

So next time, we might not be so lucky.

Keyingi bor bizga omad kulib boqmasligi mumkin.

You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious

Keyingi virus shunday bo'lishi mumkinki, kasallanganlarda samolyot orqali sayohat

that they get on a plane or they go to a market.

qilishga yoki bozorlarga borishga kuch bo'lishi mumkin. Virus Ebolaga

The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola,

o'xshash tabiatga ega bo'lishi ham mumkin, yoki bioterroristlar

or it could be bioterrorism.

tomonidan yaratilishi mumkin.

So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.

Demak, vaziyatni ming marta xavfliroq tus oldirishi mumkin bo'lgan narsalar bor.

In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air,

Keling, virusning havo orqali yuqishi mumkin bo'lgan modelini ko'rib chiqaylik.

like the Spanish Flu back in 1918.

Bunaqasi 1918-yil ispancha grippda bo'lgan.

So here's what would happen:

Vaziyat quyidagicha rivojlanishi mumkin:

It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly.

infeksiya sayyora bo'ylab juda-juda tez tarqalishi mumkin.

And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic.

Ko'rayotganingizdek, ispankadan 30 millionta inson halok bo'lgan.

So this is a serious problem.

Bu jiddiy muammo. Biz bunga

We should be concerned.

bee'tibor bo'lmasligimiz kerak.

But in fact, we can build a really good response system.

Lekin bizning haqiqatdan ham samarador tizim yaratishga kuchimiz yetadi.

We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here.

Bizning qo'limizda barcha ilm-fan va texnologiya yutuqlari bor. Bizda

We've got cell phones

mobil telefonlar bor.

to get information from the public and get information out to them.

Ularning yordamida biz ma'lumot olamiz va jamiyatga tarqatamiz.

We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they're moving.

Bizda aholining harakatlanishini kuzatish uchun sputnik xaritalari bor.

We have advances in biology

Bizda biologik yutuqlar bor, ular yordamida

that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen

biz qisqa vaqt ichida patogenni o'rganishimiz va u bilan kurashish

and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen.

uchun mos keladigan dori va vaksinalar ishlab chiqishimiz mumkin bo'ladi.

So we can have tools,

Ya'ni bizda imkoniyatlar bor,

but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system.

lekin ushbu vositalarni global sog'liqni saqlash tizimiga kiritishimiz kerak.

And we need preparedness.

Biz tayyor turishimiz kerak.

The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared

Eng yaxshi saboqlarni, o'ylaymanki, urushga

are again, what we do for war.

tayyorgarlik ko'rish tajribasidan olish mumkin.

For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go.

Askarlar doimiy ravishda urushga shay turishadi.

We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers.

Bizda sonlarni keskin oshirish mumkin bo'lgan harbiy zahiralar bor.

NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly.

NATO juda tez harakatlana oladigan mobil bo'linmasiga ega.

NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained?

NATO harbiy tayyorgarlikni tekshirish uchun ko'plab sinovlar o'tkazadi.

Do they understand about fuel and logistics

Yoqilg'i, logistika va radioto'lqinlari

and the same radio frequencies?

haqidagi bilimlari tekshiriladi.

So they are absolutely ready to go.

Shuning ular doimiy harbiy tayyorgarlikka ega.

So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.

Epidemiyaga qarshi kurashish uchun ham bizga shunga o'xshash tizim kerak.

What are the key pieces?

Birinchi navbatda nimalar muhim?

First, we need strong health systems in poor countries.

Birinchidan, kambag'al davlatlarda kuchli sog'liqni saqlash tizimini yaratish kerak.

That's where mothers can give birth safely,

Onalar xavfsiz tug'a olishi va go'daklar barcha

kids can get all their vaccines.

vaksinalarni ola olishi uchun.

But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early on.

Bu davlatlar birinchi bo'lib epidemiya bilan yuzma-yuz kelishadi.

We need a medical reserve corps:

Bizga tibbiy xodimlar zahirasi kerak:

lots of people who've got the training and background

doim yordam berishga tayyor mahsus

who are ready to go, with the expertise.

bilimga va tayyorgarlikka ega insonlar.

And then we need to pair those medical people with the military.

Va biz harbiylarning tez harakatlana olish va logistikani bilish, xavfsiz zonalarni

taking advantage of the military's ability to move fast, do logistics

yarata olish imkoniyatlaridan foydalangan holda, tibbiy hodimlar va harbiylar

and secure areas.

kuchini birlashtirishimiz kerak.

We need to do simulations,

Tayyorgarlik mashg'ulotlari o'tkazish kerak —

germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are.

harbiy mashg'ulotlar emas, bakteriologik; zaif tomonlarni aniqlab olish uchun.

The last time a germ game was done in the United States

AQSHda oxirgi marta bakteriologik mashg'ulotlar 2001-yilda

was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well.

o'tkazilgan, va hattoki u yerda ham hammasi joyida emas edi.

So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0.

Hozircha hisob 1:0, mikroblar foydasiga.

Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics.

Va nihoyat, bizga vaksinatsiya va diagnostika yo'nalishida ko'plab ilmiy-

There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus,

tadqiqot ishlari kerak. Bunda katta yutuqlar bor, masalan, adeno bilan

that could work very, very quickly.

bog'liq virus bizga juda tez yordam berishi mumkin.

Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost,

Menda bunga ketishi mumkin bo'lgan mablag' haqida aniq bir raqamlar

but I'm quite sure it's very modest compared to the potential harm.

yo'q, lekin, aminmanki, potensialni olib qarasak, bu raqamlar juda ham kamtarona.

The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic,

Jahon bankining hisob-kitobiga ko'ra, global gripp epidemiyasi global boylikning

global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars

3 trillion dollarga zarar ko'rishiga va millionlab insonlarning

and we'd have millions and millions of deaths.

hayotdan ko'z yumishiga olib keladi.

These investments offer significant benefits

Bu kabi investitsiyalar nafaqat epidemiyaga qarshi

beyond just being ready for the epidemic.

kurashishda katta foyda keltiradi,

The primary healthcare, the R&D,

Tez yordamning rivojlanishi, ilmiy tadqiqotlar,

those things would reduce global health equity

bularning barchasi jahon sog'liqni saqlash tizimini yanada

and make the world more just as well as more safe.

adolatli va dunyoni yanada xavfsizroq qiladi.

So I think this should absolutely be a priority.

O'ylaymanki, asosiy e'tiborimizni aynan shunga qaratishimiz kerak.

There's no need to panic.

Vahima qilishning hojati yo'q.

We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement.

Makaronlar bilan zahiralanishga va yerto'lada yashirinishga ham ehtiyoj yo'q.

But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.

Lekin biz tayyorlanishimiz kerak, chunki vaqt biz tomonda emas.

In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic,

Aslini olganda, Ebola insoniyatga yaxshigina saboq berdi:

it's that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready.

u bizga ogohlantirish qo'ng'irog'i bo'lib hizmat qildi.

If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.

Agar biz hozirdan boshlasak, keyingi epidemiyaga tayyor bo'lishimiz mumkin.

Thank you.

Rahmat.

(Applause)

(Qarsaklar)