The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Bill Gates | TED

37,917,462 views ・ 2015-04-03

TED


Videoni ijro etish uchun quyidagi inglizcha subtitrlarga ikki marta bosing.

Translator: Nazarbek Nazarov Reviewer: Azizbek Nazarov
00:17
When I was a kid,
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Bolalik davrimizda biz hammasidan ham
00:19
the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war.
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yadroviy urush boshlanishidan qo'rqar edik.
00:23
That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement,
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Shu sabab hammaning yerto'lasida suv va konservalar
00:27
filled with cans of food and water.
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to'ldirilgan bochkalar bo'lar edi.
00:30
When the nuclear attack came,
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Yadroviy urush boshlangan taqdirda
00:31
we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.
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pastga tushib, o'sha yerda o'tirib, bochkadagi zahiradan oziqlanishimiz uchun.
00:37
Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe
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Hozirgi kunda eng katta global falokat
00:41
doesn't look like this.
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bunday ko'rinishda emas.
00:44
Instead, it looks like this.
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Endilikda uning ko'rinishi bunday.
00:48
If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades,
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Yaqin o'nyilliklarda agar nimadir 10 million insonni o'ldirishga qodir
00:53
it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus
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bo'lsa, katta ehtimol bilan u yuqori yuqumlilikka ega virusdir,
00:57
rather than a war.
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urush emas.
00:59
Not missiles, but microbes.
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Raketalar emas, mikroblar.
01:03
Now, part of the reason for this is that
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Qisman buning asosiy sababi
01:05
we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents.
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bizning hozirda yadroviy qurollarga juda katta pullar sarflayotganimizdir.
01:10
But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic.
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Shu bilan birga epidemiyalar oldini olish uchun esa juda kam pul ajratmoqdamiz.
01:16
We're not ready for the next epidemic.
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Biz keyingi epidemiya tarqalishiga tayyor emasmiz.
01:20
Let's look at Ebola.
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Masalan, Ebola virusini olsak.
01:21
I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper,
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Aminmanki, hammangiz bu haqda gazetalarda o'qigansiz -
01:25
lots of tough challenges.
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u juda ko'p muammolar olib keldi.
01:27
I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools
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Men uni poliomelitning yo'qolishini analiz qilishda qo'llanilgan usullar
01:30
we use to track polio eradication.
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yordamida diqqat bilan kuzatib bordim.
01:35
And as you look at what went on,
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Bunday bir holatda,
01:37
the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough,
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muammo - tizimning yaxshi ishlamasligida emas,
01:42
the problem was that we didn't have a system at all.
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bunday tizimning o'zi mavjud emasligida edi.
01:46
In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces.
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Tizimda eng oddiy va kerakli qismlar yo'q edi.
01:51
We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone,
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Bizda kasallik tarqalgan joyga borib uni o'rganishga va uning tarqalish darajasini
01:55
seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread.
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aniqlashga tayyor turgan epidemiologlar yo'q edi.
01:59
The case reports came in on paper.
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Kasallik holatlari haqida ma'lumotlar faqat qog'ozda edi.
02:02
It was very delayed before they were put online
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Hisobotlarni onlayn tarzda juda katta kechikishlar
02:04
and they were extremely inaccurate.
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va ko'plab xatoliklari bilan joylashardi.
02:07
We didn't have a medical team ready to go.
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Bizda ishga shay turgan tibbiy jamoa yo'q edi.
02:09
We didn't have a way of preparing people.
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Bizda mutahassislarni tayyorlaydigan metodlar yo'q edi.
02:12
Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers.
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"Cheksiz Shifokorlar" volontyorlarni boshqarish vazifasini yaxshi uddalashdi.
02:17
But even so, we were far slower than we should have been
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Shunday bo'lsa-da, zarar ko'rayotgan hududlarga minglab ishchi
02:20
getting the thousands of workers into these countries.
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kuchi yuborish kerak bo'lgan bir vaqtda juda sekin harakat qildik.
02:24
And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers.
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Katta epidemiya esa bizdan yuz minglab ishchilarni talab qiladi.
02:32
There was no one there to look at treatment approaches.
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Zarar ko'rgan hududlarda davolash jarayonini boshqaradigan inson yo'q edi.
02:37
No one to look at the diagnostics.
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Tashxisga ham hech kim qaramayotgan,
02:38
No one to figure out what tools should be used.
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qanday davolashni hech kim tushunmayotgan edi.
02:42
As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors,
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Masalan, sog'ayganlardan qon olib, uni qayta ishlab,
02:45
processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them.
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plazmasini kasallarga virusdan himoya sifatida quyishimiz mumkin edi.
02:51
But that was never tried.
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Biroq bu metod biror marta ham qo'llanilmadi.
02:53
So there was a lot that was missing.
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Ko'p ishlar qilinishi mumkin edi.
02:55
And these things are really a global failure.
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Aslida bu global masshatbdagi muvaffaqiyatsizlik edi.
03:00
The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about.
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JSST epidemiyani kuzatish uchun moliyalash tirilgan, lekin yuqoridagilar uchun emas.
03:07
Now, in the movies it's quite different.
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Filmlarda odatda hammasi boshqacha.
03:09
There's a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go,
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Yordamga bir guruh kelishgan epidemiologlar yuboriladi,
03:14
they move in, they save the day, but that's just pure Hollywood.
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ular yetib kelishadi, hammani qutqarishadi — lekin bu bor-yog'i Gollivud.
03:22
The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic
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Agar biz keragicha tayyorgarlik ko'rmasak, keyingi epidemiya Ebolaga
03:25
to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola
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qaraganda biz uchun sezilarli darajada halokatli bo'lishi mumkin.
03:30
Let's look at the progression of Ebola over this year.
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Keling bu yilgi Ebolaning tarqalishi haqida ma'lumotlarni ko'rib chiqamiz.
03:36
About 10,000 people died,
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Deyarli 10 000 ta inson halok bo'ldi,
03:39
and nearly all were in the three West African countries.
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deyarli hammasi — G'arbiy Afrikaning uchta davlatidan.
03:43
There's three reasons why it didn't spread more.
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Uning bundan ortiq tarqalmaganiga uchta sabab bor.
03:46
The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers.
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Birinchisi, tibbiy xodimlarning qahramonona ish olib borganlari edi.
03:50
They found the people and they prevented more infections.
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Ular kasallarni topishdi, virusning keng tarqalishini oldini olishdi.
03:54
The second is the nature of the virus.
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Ikkinchisi, bu virusning alohida tabiati edi.
03:56
Ebola does not spread through the air.
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Ebola havo orqali tarqalmaydi.
03:59
And by the time you're contagious,
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Kasallanganlarning ahvoli shunchalik
04:01
most people are so sick that they're bedridden.
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yomonlashrdiki, ular yotoqdan tura olishmas edi.
04:06
Third, it didn't get into many urban areas.
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Uchinchisi, kasallik ko'plab shahar hududlariga yetib bormadi.
04:10
And that was just luck.
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Bu shunchaki omad edi.
04:12
If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas,
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Agar Ebola ko'plab shaharlar hududlariga yetib
04:14
the case numbers would have been much larger.
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borganida, kasallanganlarning soni judayam yuqori bo'lar edi.
04:17
So next time, we might not be so lucky.
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Keyingi bor bizga omad kulib boqmasligi mumkin.
04:21
You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious
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Keyingi virus shunday bo'lishi mumkinki, kasallanganlarda samolyot orqali sayohat
04:26
that they get on a plane or they go to a market.
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qilishga yoki bozorlarga borishga kuch bo'lishi mumkin. Virus Ebolaga
04:29
The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola,
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o'xshash tabiatga ega bo'lishi ham mumkin, yoki bioterroristlar
04:32
or it could be bioterrorism.
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tomonidan yaratilishi mumkin.
04:34
So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.
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Demak, vaziyatni ming marta xavfliroq tus oldirishi mumkin bo'lgan narsalar bor.
04:39
In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air,
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Keling, virusning havo orqali yuqishi mumkin bo'lgan modelini ko'rib chiqaylik.
04:45
like the Spanish Flu back in 1918.
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Bunaqasi 1918-yil ispancha grippda bo'lgan.
04:49
So here's what would happen:
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Vaziyat quyidagicha rivojlanishi mumkin:
04:51
It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly.
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infeksiya sayyora bo'ylab juda-juda tez tarqalishi mumkin.
04:55
And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic.
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Ko'rayotganingizdek, ispankadan 30 millionta inson halok bo'lgan.
05:00
So this is a serious problem.
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Bu jiddiy muammo. Biz bunga
05:02
We should be concerned.
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bee'tibor bo'lmasligimiz kerak.
05:04
But in fact, we can build a really good response system.
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Lekin bizning haqiqatdan ham samarador tizim yaratishga kuchimiz yetadi.
05:08
We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here.
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Bizning qo'limizda barcha ilm-fan va texnologiya yutuqlari bor. Bizda
05:13
We've got cell phones
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mobil telefonlar bor.
05:14
to get information from the public and get information out to them.
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Ularning yordamida biz ma'lumot olamiz va jamiyatga tarqatamiz.
05:18
We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they're moving.
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Bizda aholining harakatlanishini kuzatish uchun sputnik xaritalari bor.
05:22
We have advances in biology
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Bizda biologik yutuqlar bor, ular yordamida
05:24
that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen
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biz qisqa vaqt ichida patogenni o'rganishimiz va u bilan kurashish
05:28
and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen.
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uchun mos keladigan dori va vaksinalar ishlab chiqishimiz mumkin bo'ladi.
05:33
So we can have tools,
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Ya'ni bizda imkoniyatlar bor,
05:34
but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system.
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lekin ushbu vositalarni global sog'liqni saqlash tizimiga kiritishimiz kerak.
05:39
And we need preparedness.
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Biz tayyor turishimiz kerak.
05:41
The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared
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Eng yaxshi saboqlarni, o'ylaymanki, urushga
05:44
are again, what we do for war.
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tayyorgarlik ko'rish tajribasidan olish mumkin.
05:46
For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go.
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Askarlar doimiy ravishda urushga shay turishadi.
05:51
We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers.
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Bizda sonlarni keskin oshirish mumkin bo'lgan harbiy zahiralar bor.
05:54
NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly.
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NATO juda tez harakatlana oladigan mobil bo'linmasiga ega.
05:58
NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained?
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NATO harbiy tayyorgarlikni tekshirish uchun ko'plab sinovlar o'tkazadi.
06:01
Do they understand about fuel and logistics
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Yoqilg'i, logistika va radioto'lqinlari
06:03
and the same radio frequencies?
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haqidagi bilimlari tekshiriladi.
06:06
So they are absolutely ready to go.
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Shuning ular doimiy harbiy tayyorgarlikka ega.
06:08
So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.
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Epidemiyaga qarshi kurashish uchun ham bizga shunga o'xshash tizim kerak.
06:13
What are the key pieces?
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Birinchi navbatda nimalar muhim?
06:15
First, we need strong health systems in poor countries.
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Birinchidan, kambag'al davlatlarda kuchli sog'liqni saqlash tizimini yaratish kerak.
06:20
That's where mothers can give birth safely,
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Onalar xavfsiz tug'a olishi va go'daklar barcha
06:23
kids can get all their vaccines.
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vaksinalarni ola olishi uchun.
06:25
But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early on.
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Bu davlatlar birinchi bo'lib epidemiya bilan yuzma-yuz kelishadi.
06:30
We need a medical reserve corps:
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Bizga tibbiy xodimlar zahirasi kerak:
06:31
lots of people who've got the training and background
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doim yordam berishga tayyor mahsus
06:34
who are ready to go, with the expertise.
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bilimga va tayyorgarlikka ega insonlar.
06:37
And then we need to pair those medical people with the military.
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Va biz harbiylarning tez harakatlana olish va logistikani bilish, xavfsiz zonalarni
06:42
taking advantage of the military's ability to move fast, do logistics
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yarata olish imkoniyatlaridan foydalangan holda, tibbiy hodimlar va harbiylar
06:46
and secure areas.
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kuchini birlashtirishimiz kerak.
06:48
We need to do simulations,
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Tayyorgarlik mashg'ulotlari o'tkazish kerak —
06:51
germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are.
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harbiy mashg'ulotlar emas, bakteriologik; zaif tomonlarni aniqlab olish uchun.
06:55
The last time a germ game was done in the United States
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AQSHda oxirgi marta bakteriologik mashg'ulotlar 2001-yilda
06:58
was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well.
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o'tkazilgan, va hattoki u yerda ham hammasi joyida emas edi.
07:02
So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0.
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Hozircha hisob 1:0, mikroblar foydasiga.
07:07
Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics.
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Va nihoyat, bizga vaksinatsiya va diagnostika yo'nalishida ko'plab ilmiy-
07:13
There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus,
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tadqiqot ishlari kerak. Bunda katta yutuqlar bor, masalan, adeno bilan
07:17
that could work very, very quickly.
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bog'liq virus bizga juda tez yordam berishi mumkin.
07:21
Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost,
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Menda bunga ketishi mumkin bo'lgan mablag' haqida aniq bir raqamlar
07:24
but I'm quite sure it's very modest compared to the potential harm.
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yo'q, lekin, aminmanki, potensialni olib qarasak, bu raqamlar juda ham kamtarona.
07:29
The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic,
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Jahon bankining hisob-kitobiga ko'ra, global gripp epidemiyasi global boylikning
07:33
global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars
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3 trillion dollarga zarar ko'rishiga va millionlab insonlarning
07:37
and we'd have millions and millions of deaths.
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hayotdan ko'z yumishiga olib keladi.
07:41
These investments offer significant benefits
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Bu kabi investitsiyalar nafaqat epidemiyaga qarshi
07:44
beyond just being ready for the epidemic.
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kurashishda katta foyda keltiradi,
07:46
The primary healthcare, the R&D,
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Tez yordamning rivojlanishi, ilmiy tadqiqotlar,
07:48
those things would reduce global health equity
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bularning barchasi jahon sog'liqni saqlash tizimini yanada
07:51
and make the world more just as well as more safe.
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adolatli va dunyoni yanada xavfsizroq qiladi.
07:55
So I think this should absolutely be a priority.
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O'ylaymanki, asosiy e'tiborimizni aynan shunga qaratishimiz kerak.
07:59
There's no need to panic.
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Vahima qilishning hojati yo'q.
08:00
We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement.
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Makaronlar bilan zahiralanishga va yerto'lada yashirinishga ham ehtiyoj yo'q.
08:05
But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.
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Lekin biz tayyorlanishimiz kerak, chunki vaqt biz tomonda emas.
08:09
In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic,
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Aslini olganda, Ebola insoniyatga yaxshigina saboq berdi:
08:15
it's that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready.
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u bizga ogohlantirish qo'ng'irog'i bo'lib hizmat qildi.
08:21
If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.
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Agar biz hozirdan boshlasak, keyingi epidemiyaga tayyor bo'lishimiz mumkin.
08:26
Thank you.
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Rahmat.
08:28
(Applause)
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(Qarsaklar)
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