Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Doris Mangalu Reviewer: Nelson Simfukwe

I'm going to talk about religion.

Nitaenda kuongelea kuhusu dini.

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

Lakini ni mada pana na nyeti sana,

so I have to limit myself.

hivyo itabidi nijiwekee mpaka.

And therefore I will limit myself

Na kwahiyo nitajiwekea mpaka

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

kuongelea tu kuhusu uhusiano kati ya dini na kujamiiana.

(Laughter)

(Kicheko)

This is a very serious talk.

Haya ni majadiliano yenye uzito sana.

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

Hivyo, nitaongelea juu ya ninachokumbuka kua cha ajabu sana.

It's when the young couple whisper,

Ni pale wanandoa vijana walinong'oneza,

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

"Usiku tutaenda kutengeneza mtoto."

My talk will be about the impact of religions

Maongezi yangu yatahusu athari ya dini

on the number of babies per woman.

kwa idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.

This is indeed important,

Hii ni muhimu kweli,

because everyone understands

kwa sababu kila mtu anaelewa

that there is some sort of limit

kua kuna aina fulani ya mpaka

on how many people we can be on this planet.

kwa jinsi watu wengi wanaweza kua kwenye hii sayari.

And there are some people

Na kuna baadhi ya watu

who say that the world population is growing like this --

wanaosema kua idadi ya watu duniani imekua kama hivi --

three billion in 1960,

bilioni tatu mwaka 1960,

seven billion just last year --

bilioni saba mwaka jana tu --

and it will continue to grow

na itaendelea kukua

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

kwa sababu kuna dini zinazozuia wanawake kuwa na watoto wachache,

and it may continue like this.

na inaweza kuendelea hivi.

To what extent are these people right?

Ni kwa kiasi gani hawa watu wako sahihi?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

Nilivyozaliwa kulikua na watoto chini ya bilioni moja duniani,

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

na leo, 2000, kuna karibia bilioni mbili.

What has happened since,

Nini kimetokea tangu hapo,

and what do the experts predict will happen

na nini wataalam wanatabiri kitatokea

with the number of children during this century?

na idadi ya watoto karne hii?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

Hili ni jaribio. Unafikiri nini?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

Unafikiri itapungua mpaka bilioni moja?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

Itabaki sawa na kua bilioni mbili ifikapo mwisho wa karne?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

Idadi ya watoto itaongezeka kila mwaka hadi miaka 15,

or will it continue in the same fast rate

au itaendelea na kiwango cha haraka kile kile

and be four billion children up there?

na kua watoto bilioni nne huko juu?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

Nitawaambia ifikapo mwisho wa hotuba yangu.

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

Lakini sasa, dini inahusika vipi?

When you want to classify religion,

Unapotaka kuainisha dini,

it's more difficult than you think.

ni ngumu kuliko unavyofikiri.

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

Unaenda Wikipedia na ramani ya kwanza unayopata ni hii.

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

Inagawanyisha dunia kwenye dini za Ibrahimu na dini za Mashariki,

but that's not detailed enough.

lakini hio haina undani wa kutosha.

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

Hivyo tukaenda zaidi na kuangalia kwenye Wikipedia, tukapata hii ramani.

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

Lakni hio inaianisha Ukristo, Uislamu na Ubuddha

into many subgroups,

kwenye makundi mengi madogo,

which was too detailed.

ambayo yalikua ya kina sana.

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

Kwa hiyo pale Gapminder tulitengeneza ramani yetu,

and it looks like this.

Na inaonekana hivi.

Each country's a bubble.

Kila nchi ni puto.

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

Ukubwa ni idadi ya watu -- China kubwa, India kubwa hapa.

And the color now is the majority religion.

Na rangi sasa ni dini yenye wengi.

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

Ni dini ambayo watu zaidi ya asilimia 50

say that they belong.

wanasema wanahusika.

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

Ni dini ya Mashariki huko India na China na nchi jirani za Asia.

Islam is the majority religion

Uislamu ni dini ya wingi

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

njia yote kutoka Bahari ya Atlantiki kupitia Mashariki ya Kati,

Southern Europe and through Asia

Ulaya ya Kusini na kupitia Asia

all the way to Indonesia.

njia yote mpaka Indonesia.

That's where we find Islamic majority.

Hapo ndipo tunapata Waislamu wengi.

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

Na dini nyingi za Kikristo, tunaona kwenye hizi nchi. Ni za bluu.

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

Na hizo ni nchi nyingi za Marekani na Ulaya,

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

nchi nyingi za Afrika na chache za Asia.

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

Nyeupe hapa ni nchi ambazo haziwezi kuwa kuainishwa,

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

kwa sababu dini moja haifiki asilimia 50

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

au kuna shaka kuhusu takwimu au sababu yoyote nyingine.

So we were careful with that.

Hivyo tulikua makini na hilo.

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

Hivyo vumilia urahisi wetu sasa nikiwapeleka kwenye hii picha.

This is in 1960.

Hii ni 1960.

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

Na sasa naonyesha idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke hapa:

two, four or six --

mbili, nne au sita --

many babies, few babies.

watoto wengi, watoto wachache.

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

Na hapa mapato kwa mtu ikilinganishwa dola.

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

Sababu ya hio ni kua watu wengi wanasema unapaswa kua tajiri kwanza

before you get few babies.

kabla hujapata watoto wachache.

So low income here, high income there.

Hivyo mapato ya chini hapa, mapato ya juu pale.

And indeed in 1960,

Na kweli mwaka 1960,

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

ulitakiwa uwe Mkristo tajiri kuwa na watoto wachache.

The exception was Japan.

Ilikua isipokua Japan.

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

Japan hapa ilionekana ya kipekee.

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

Vinginevyo ni nchi za Kikristo tu.

But there was also many Christian countries

Lakini pia kulikua na nchi nyingi za Kikristo

that had six to seven babies per woman.

zilizokua na watoto sita mpaka saba kwa mwanamke.

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

Lakini zilikua Amerika ya Kusini au zilikua Afrika.

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

Na nchi zenye Kiislamu kama dini kuu,

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

zote zilikua na karibia watoto sita mpaka saba kwa mwanamke,

irregardless of the income level.

bila kujali kiwango cha mapato.

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

Na dini zote za mashariki isipokua Japan zilikua na kiwango sawa.

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

Sasa tuone kilichotokea kwenye dunia.

I start the world, and here we go.

Ninaanzisha dunia, na tunaenda hivi.

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

Sasa 1962 -- unaweza kuona wanakua tajiri zaidi,

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

lakini idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke inashuka?

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

Angalia China. Wanashuka kwa haraka sana.

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

Na nchi zote zenye Wasilamu wengi katika mapato zinakuja chini,

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

kama nchi zenye Wakristo wengi kwenye eneo lenye mapato ya kati.

And when we enter into this century,

Na tunapoingia kwenye karne hii,

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

utakuta zaidi ya nusu ya watu huku chini.

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

Na ifikapo 2010, tuko kwa kweli asilimia 80 ya watu

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

wanaoishi kwenye nchi zenye kama watoto wawili kwa mwanamke.

(Applause)

(Makofi)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

Ni maendeleo ya kushangaza kabisa ambayo yametokea.

(Applause)

(Makofi)

And these are countries from United States here,

Na hizi ni nchi za Marekani hapa,

with $40,000 per capita,

zenye $40,000 kwa kila mtu,

France, Russia, Iran,

Ufaransa, Urusi, Uajemi,

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

Mexico, Uturuki, Algeria,

Indonesia, India

Indonesia, India

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

na moja kwa moja mpaka Bangladesh na Vietnam,

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

ambazo zinazo chini ya asilimia tano ya mapato kwa mtu wa Marekani

and the same amount of babies per woman.

na kiasi sawa cha watoto kwa mwanamke.

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

Naweza kukuambia kua takwimu ya idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke

is surprisingly good in all countries.

ina uzuri wa kushangaza nchi zote.

We get that from the census data.

Tunapata hizo kutoka takwimu za sensa.

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

Sio moja ya hizi takwimu zilizo na mashaka sana.

So what we can conclude

Hivyo tunachohitimisha

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

ni hauhitaji kua tajiri kuwa na watoto wachache.

It has happened across the world.

Imetokea katika dunia.

And then when we look at religions,

Na kisha tunapoangalia dini.

we can see that the Eastern religions,

tunaona kua dini za mashariki,

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

kwa kweli hakuna nchi hata moja yenye wingi wa hio dini

that has more than three children.

ambayo ina zaidi ya watoto watatu.

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

Ambapo na Uislamu kama dini ya wingi na Ukristo,

you see countries all the way.

unaona nchi njia yote.

But there's no major difference.

Lakini hakuna tofauti kubwa.

There's no major difference between these religions.

Hakuna tofauti kubwa kati ya hizi dini.

There is a difference with income.

Kuna tofauti kwenye mapato.

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

Nchi ambazo zina watoto wengi kwa mwanamke hapa,

they have quite low income.

zina mapato ya chini kweli.

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Nyingi zao ziko Afrika kusini mwa Sahara.

But there are also countries here

Lakini pia kuna nchi huku

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

kama Guatemala, kama Papua New Guinea,

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

kama Yemen na Afghanistan.

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

Wengi hufikiri kua Afghanistan hapa na Kongo,

which have suffered severe conflicts,

ambazo zimeteseka na migogoro mikali,

that they don't have fast population growth.

kua hazina ukuaji wa idadi ya watu wa haraka.

It's the other way around.

Ni kinyume chake.

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

Kwenye dunia leo, ni nchi zenye kiwango cha juu cha vifo

that have the fastest population growth.

ambazo zina ukuaji wa haraka wa idadi ya watu.

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

Kwa sababu kifo cha mtoto kimefidiwa na mtoto mmoja zaidi.

These countries have six children per woman.

Hizi nchi zina watoto sita kwa mwanake.

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

Zina kiwango cha vifo cha kusikitisha cha mtoto mmoja mpaka wawili kwa mwanamke.

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

Lakini miaka 30 kutoka sasa, Afghanistan inatoka milioni 30 mpaka milioni 60.

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

Kongo inaenda kutoka 60 mpaka 120.

That's where we have the fast population growth.

Hapo ndipo tunapata ukuaji wa idadi ya watu.

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

Na wengi wanafikiri kua hizi nchi ziko palepale, lakini hazipo.

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

Ngoja nilinganishe Senegal, nchi iliotawaliwa na Waislamu,

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

na nchi iliotawaliwa na Wakristo, Ghana.

I take them backwards here to their independence,

Nazipeleka nyuma hapa kwenye uhuru wao,

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

ambapo walikua huku juu mwanzoni mwa miaka ya 1960.

Just look what they have done.

Angalia tu walichokifanya.

It's an amazing improvement,

Ni maendeleo ya kushangaza,

from seven children per woman,

kutoka watoto saba kwa mwanake,

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

wameenda moja kwa moja chini mpaka wanne na watano.

It's a tremendous improvement.

Ni maendeleo makubwa.

So what does it take?

Hivyo inachukua nini?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

Basi tunajua vizuri kabisa kinachohitajika kwenye hizi nchi.

You need to have children to survive.

Unahitaji kua na watoto kuishi.

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

Unahitaji kutoka nje ya umasikini uliokithiri

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

hivyo watoto sio wa muhimu kwa kazi kwenye familia.

You need to have access to some family planning.

Unahitaji kua na upatikanaji wa baadhi ya uzazi wa mpango.

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

Na unahitaji sababu ya nne, ambayo pengine ni sababu muhimu kuliko zote.

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

Lakini ngoja nionyeshe hio sababu ya nne

by looking at Qatar.

kwa kuangalia Qatar.

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

Hapa tuna Qatar leo, na pale tuna Bangladesh leo.

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

Kama nikizipeleka hizi nchi nyuma kwenye miaka ya uhuru wao,

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

ambazo ni karibia mwaka mmoja -- '71, '72 --

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

ni maendeleo ya kushangaza kabisa ambayo yalitokea.

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

Angalia Bangladesh na Qatar.

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

Zenye mapato yanayotofautiana kabisa, ni karibia muanguko sawa

in number of babies per woman.

kwenye idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.

And what is the reason in Qatar?

Na nini sababu ya Qatar?

Well I do as I always do.

Basi kama kawaida yangu.

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

Nilienda kwenye mamlaka ya takwimu ya Qatar, kwenye tovuti yao --

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

Ni tovuti nzuri sana. Ninaipendekeza --

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

na nikaangalia juu -- ndio, ni burudani nyingi hapa --

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

na zinatolewa bure, nilikuta mwenendo wa kijamii wa Qatar.

Very interesting. Lots to read.

Ya kuvutia sana. Vingi vya kusoma.

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

Nilikuta nguvu ya uzazi, na nikaangalia jumla ya kiwango cha uzazi kwa mwanamke.

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

Hawa ni wasomi na wataalamu kwenye wakala wa serikali wa Qatar,

and they say the most important factors are:

na wakasema sababu za muhimu zaidi ni:

"Increased age at first marriage,

"Ongezeko la umri kwenye ndoa ya kwanza,

increased educational level of Qatari woman

ongezeko la kiwango cha elimu cha mwanamke wa Qatar

and more women integrated in the labor force."

na wanawake zaidi kujumuika kwenye nguvukazi."

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

Nisingekubali zaidi. Sayansi isingekubali zaidi.

This is a country that indeed has gone through

Hii ni nchi ambayo kweli imepitia

a very, very interesting modernization.

utamaduni wa kushangaza sana sana.

So what it is, is these four:

Hivyo kilichopo, ni hizi nne:

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

Watoto wanatakiwa waishi, watoto hawatakiwi kuhitajika kwa kazi,

women should get education and join the labor force

wanawake wanatakiwa kupata elimu na kujiunga na nguvukazi

and family planning should be accessible.

na uzazi wa mpango unatakiwa kupatikana.

Now look again at this.

Sasa angalia tena hii.

The average number of children in the world

Wastani ya idadi ya watoto duniani

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

ni kama ya Colombia -- ni 2.4 leo.

There are countries up here which are very poor.

Kuna nchi huku juu amabazo ni maskini sana.

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

Na ndipo uzazi wa mpango, maisha bora ya watoto zinahitajika.

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

Nina pendekeza kwa nguvu mazungumzo ya TED ya mwisho ya Melinda Gates.

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

Na hapa, chini, kuna nchi nyingi ambazo zina chini ya watoto wawili kwa mwanamke.

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

Hivyo nikirudi sasa kuwapa jibu la jaribio,

it's two.

ni mbili.

We have reached peak child.

Tumefikia kilele mtoto.

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

Idadi ya watoto haikui tena zaidi duniani.

We are still debating peak oil,

Bado tunajadili kilele mafuta,

but we have definitely reached peak child.

lakini ni dhahiri tumefika kilele mtoto.

And the world population will stop growing.

Idadi ya watu duniani itaacha kukua.

The United Nations Population Division has said

Umoja wa Mataifa kitengo cha Wakazi kilisema

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

kitaacha kukua kwenye bilioni 10.

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

Lakini kwanini tunaongezeka kama idadi ya watoto haiongezeki?

Well I will show you here.

Basi nitawaonyesha hapa.

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

Nitatumia hizi sanduku za kadi ambazo madaftari yenu yalikuja.

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

Ni muhimu sana kwa madhumuni ya elimu.

Each card box is one billion people.

Kila kisanduku ni watu bilioni moja.

And there are two billion children in the world.

Na kuna watoto bilioni mbili duniani.

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

Kuna vijana bilioni mbili kati ya 15 na 30.

These are rounded numbers.

Hizi ni namba zilizokadiriwa.

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

Halafu kuna bilioni moja kati ya 30 na 45,

almost one between 45 and 60.

karibia moja kati ya 45 na 60.

And then it's my box.

na tena kuna sanduku langu.

This is me: 60-plus.

Huyu ni mimi: 60-na zaidi.

We are here on top.

Tupo hapa juu.

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

Hivyo kitakachotokea sasa hivi ni tunachoita "ujazo mkubwa."

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

Utaona kua kuna kama bilioni tatu inayokosekana hapa.

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

Haionekani kwa sababu wamekufa; hawakuwahi kuzaliwa.

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

Kwa sababu kabla ya 1980, kulikua na watu wachache zaidi waliozaliwa

than there were during the last 30 years.

kuliko waliopo wakati wa miaka 30 iliopita.

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

Hivyo kitakachotokea sasa ni wazi sana.

The old, sadly, we will die.

Wazee, kwa sikitiko, tutakufa.

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

Nyie wengine, mtakua wakubwa na mtapata watoto bilioni mbili.

Then the old will die.

Kisha wazee watakufa.

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

Wengine watakua wakubwa na kupata watoto bilioni mbili.

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

Na tena wazee watakufa na mtapata watoto bilioni mbili.

(Applause)

(Makofi)

This is the great fill-up.

Hii ni ujazo mkubwa.

It's inevitable.

Haiepukiki.

And can you see that this increase took place

Na unaona kua hili ongezeko lilitokea

without life getting longer and without adding children?

bila maisha kua marefu na bila kuongeza watoto?

Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

Dini inahusika kidogo sana kwenye idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.

All the religions in the world are fully capable

Dini zote duniani zina uwezo wa kikamilifu

to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

kudumisha thamani zao na kukabiliana na hii dunia mpya.

And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

Na tutakua tu bilioni 10 kwenye dunia hii,

if the poorest people get out of poverty,

kama watu maskini watatoka kwenye umaskini,

their children survive, they get access to family planning.

watoto wao wataishi, watakua na upatikanaji wa uzazi wa mpango.

That is needed.

Hio inahitajika.

But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

Lakini haiepukiki kua tutakua bilioni mbili mpaka tatu zaidi.

So when you discuss and when you plan

Hivyo unavyojadili na unavyopanga

for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

kwa rasilimali na nishati zinazohitajika baadae,

for human beings on this planet,

kwa wanadamu kwenye hii sayari,

you have to plan for 10 billion.

unatakiwa upange kwa bilioni 10

Thank you very much.

Asante sana.

(Applause)

(Makofi)