Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Nela Kacmarcik Reviewer: Tatjana Jevdjic

I'm going to talk about religion.

Govoriću o religiji.

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

Ali to je široka i veoma osjetljiva tema,

so I have to limit myself.

tako da se moram ograničiti.

And therefore I will limit myself

Stoga ću se ograničiti

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

da govorim samo o vezi između religije i seksualnosti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

This is a very serious talk.

Ovo je veoma ozbiljan govor.

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

Tako da ću govoriti o onome čega se sjećam kao najčudesnijeg.

It's when the young couple whisper,

Kada mladi par šapuće,

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

"Noćas ćemo praviti bebu."

My talk will be about the impact of religions

Moj govor će biti o utjecaju religija

on the number of babies per woman.

na broj beba u odnosu na broj žena.

This is indeed important,

To je zaista važno,

because everyone understands

jer svi razumiju

that there is some sort of limit

da postoji neka vrsta limita

on how many people we can be on this planet.

koliko ljudi može živjeti na ovoj planeti.

And there are some people

I postoje ljudi

who say that the world population is growing like this --

koji kažu da će populacija rasti ovako --

three billion in 1960,

tri miljarde 1960.,

seven billion just last year --

sedam milijardi upravo prošle godine --

and it will continue to grow

i da će nastaviti da raste

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

jer postoje religije koje ženama ne dozvoljavaju da imaju manje djece,

and it may continue like this.

i to može da se nastavi ovako.

To what extent are these people right?

Koliko su ovi ljudi u pravu?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

Kada sam ja rođen bilo je manje od jedne milijarde djece u svijetu

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

i danas, 2000., ima ih skoro dvije milijarde.

What has happened since,

Šta se od tada desilo,

and what do the experts predict will happen

i šta eksperti predviđaju da će se desiti

with the number of children during this century?

sa brojem djece tokom ovog stoljeća?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

Ovo je kviz. Šta vi mislite?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

Da li mislite da će se broj smanjiti na jednu milijardu?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

Da li će ostati isti i biti dvije milijarde do kraja vijeka?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

Hoće li se broj djece povećavati svake godine narednih15 godina

or will it continue in the same fast rate

ili će nastaviti rasti po istoj brzoj stopi

and be four billion children up there?

i dostići četiri milijarde, ovdje?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

Do kraja mog govora reći ću vam odgovor.

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

Ali sada, kakve veze ima religija s tim?

When you want to classify religion,

Kada želite napraviti klasifikaciju religija,

it's more difficult than you think.

to je teže nego što mislite.

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

Odete na Wikipediju i prva mapa koju vidite je ova.

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

Ona dijeli svijet na abrahamične i istočne religije,

but that's not detailed enough.

ali to nije dovoljno detaljno.

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

Zato smo nastavili tražiti na Wikipediji, našli smo ovu mapu.

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

Ali ona dalje dijeli Kršćanstvo, Islam i Budizam

into many subgroups,

u mnogo podgrupa,

which was too detailed.

koje su suviše detaljne.

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

Zato smo na Gapminderu napravili našu mapu,

and it looks like this.

i ona izgleda ovako.

Each country's a bubble.

Svaka zemlja je predstavljena mjehurićem.

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

Veličina predstavlja populaciju - velika Kina, velika Indija ovdje.

And the color now is the majority religion.

I boja je većinska religija.

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

To je religija za koju više od 50 procenata populacije

say that they belong.

kaže da pripada.

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

To su istočne religije u Indiji i Kini i susjednim azijskim zemljama.

Islam is the majority religion

Islam je većinska religija

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

od Atlanskog okeana preko Bliskog istoka,

Southern Europe and through Asia

južne Evrope i kroz Aziju

all the way to Indonesia.

sve do Indonezije.

That's where we find Islamic majority.

Tu nalazimo islamsku većinu.

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

I kršćanska religija većine, vidimo je u ovim zemljama. One su plave.

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

I to je većina zemalja u Americi i Evropi,

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

mnoge zemlje u Africi i poneka u Aziji.

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

Bijelom bojom su predstavljene zemlje koje se ne mogu klasifikovati,

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

jer jedna religija nema većinu od preko 5o procenata

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

ili ako postoji sumnja u podatke ili neki drugi razlog.

So we were careful with that.

Tako da smo bili pažljivi sa tim.

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

Zato pratite naše pojednostavljenje i provešću vas kroz ovaj prikaz.

This is in 1960.

Ovo je 1960.

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

Sada pokazujem broj beba po svakoj ženi ovdje:

two, four or six --

dva, četiri ili šest --

many babies, few babies.

mnogo beba, manje beba.

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

I ovdje je prihod po osobi u usporedivim dolarima.

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

Razlog za to je to što mnogo ljudi kaže da se prvo treba obogatiti

before you get few babies.

prije nego što se dobiju djeca.

So low income here, high income there.

Tako da je niži prihod ovdje, visoki prihodi ovdje.

And indeed in 1960,

I zaista u 1960.,

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

trebalo je da budete bogati kršćanin da biste imali manje beba.

The exception was Japan.

Izuzetak je bio Japan.

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

Japan ovdje posmatramo kao izuzetak.

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

Inače to je bilo tako samo u krćanskim zemljama.

But there was also many Christian countries

Ali bilo je mnogo kršćanskih zemalja

that had six to seven babies per woman.

u kojima je bilo šest ili sedam beba po ženi.

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

One su ipak, bile su Latinskoj Americi ili u Africi.

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

I zemlje u kojima je Islam većinska religija,

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

svaka od njih je imala šestoro do sedmoro djece po ženi,

irregardless of the income level.

bez obzira na nivo prihoda.

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

Takođe i sve istočnjačke religije, izuzev Japana, imale su isti nivo.

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

Pogledajmo sada šta se dogodilo u svijetu.

I start the world, and here we go.

Pokrećem svijet, i idemo.

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

Sada u 1962. -- možete vidjeti da postaju malo bogatiji,

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

ali da broj beba po ženi opada?

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

Pogledajte Kinu. Oni opadaju prilično brzo.

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

U svim islamskim zemljama nastaje pad u odnosu na nivo prihoda,

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

kao i zemljama sa kršćanskom većinom sa srednjim prihodom.

And when we enter into this century,

Kada uđemo u ovaj vijek,

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

naći ćete više od pola čovječanstva ovdje.

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

Do 2010., 80 procenata ljudi, zapravo

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

živi u zemljama sa oko 2 djeteta po ženi.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

Prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se desio.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And these are countries from United States here,

I ovo su zemlje od Sjedinjenih država ovdje,

with $40,000 per capita,

sa 40 hiljada dolara po glavi stanovnika,

France, Russia, Iran,

Francuska, Rusija, Iran,

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

Meksiko, Turska, Alžir,

Indonesia, India

Indonezija, Indija

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

i sve do Bangladeša i Vijetnama,

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

koje imaju manje od pet procenata prihoda po glavi stanovnika u poređenju sa SAD-om

and the same amount of babies per woman.

i isti broj beba po jednoj ženi.

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

Mogu vam reći da je podatak o broju djece po ženi

is surprisingly good in all countries.

iznenađujuće dobar u svim zemljama.

We get that from the census data.

Dobijamo ga popisom stanovništva.

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

To nije jedna od onih sumnjivih statistika.

So what we can conclude

Tako da možemo zaključiti

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

da ne morate biti bogati da biste imali manje djece.

It has happened across the world.

To se dešava širom svijeta.

And then when we look at religions,

I kada pogledamo religije,

we can see that the Eastern religions,

možemo vidjeti da u istočnjačkim religijama

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

zaista nema ni jedne zemlje

that has more than three children.

koja ima više od troje djece.

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

Istovremeno, tamo gdje su Islam i Kršćanstvo većinske religije

you see countries all the way.

imate zemlje u svim kategorijama.

But there's no major difference.

Ali nema veće razlike.

There's no major difference between these religions.

Nema veće razlike između ovih religija.

There is a difference with income.

Ima razlike u prihodima.

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

Zemlje koje imaju mnogo beba po ženi ovdje,

they have quite low income.

one imaju prilično niske prihode.

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Većina ih je u subsaharskoj Africi.

But there are also countries here

Ali tu su takođe ovdje i zemlje

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

poput Gvatemale, poput Papua Nove Gvineje,

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

poput Jemena i Afganistana.

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

Mnogi bi pomislili da Afganistan i Kongo,

which have suffered severe conflicts,

koji su pretrpjeli teške sukobe,

that they don't have fast population growth.

da oni nemaju brz rast populacije.

It's the other way around.

Zapravo je suprotno.

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

U današnjem svijetu, zemlje koje imaju najviše stope smrtnosti

that have the fastest population growth.

imaju najbrži rast populacije.

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

Jer je smrt djeteta kompenzirana djetetom više.

These countries have six children per woman.

Ove zemlje imaju šestoro djece po ženi.

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

One imaju tužnu stopu smrtnosti od jedno do dvoje djece po ženi.

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

Ali za 30 godina, Afganistan će povećati broj stanovnika sa 30 na 60 miliona.

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

Kongo će povećati stanovništvo sa 60 na 120.

That's where we have the fast population growth.

Tu imamo najbrži rast populacije.

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

I mnogi misle da ove zemlje stagniraju, ali to nije tačno.

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

Hajde da uporedimo Senegal, zemlju sa muslimanskom većinom,

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

sa Ganom, u kojoj su kršćani dominantni.

I take them backwards here to their independence,

Vratiću ih unazad do njihove nezavisnosti,

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

kada su bile ovdje gore početkom 60-ih.

Just look what they have done.

Samo pogledajte šta su uradili.

It's an amazing improvement,

To je zapanjujući napredak,

from seven children per woman,

od sedmoro djece po ženi,

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

spustili su se ovamo dolje na četvoro i petoro.

It's a tremendous improvement.

To je ogroman napredak.

So what does it take?

Zbog čega je to tako?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

Dobro znamo šta je potrebno u ovim zemljama.

You need to have children to survive.

Morate imati djecu da bi preživjeli.

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

Morate izaći iz najdubljeg siromaštva

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

kako djeca više nisu neophodna za rad u porodici.

You need to have access to some family planning.

Morate imati pristup nekakvom planiranju porodice.

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

I potreban vam je četvrti, možda najvažniji faktor.

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

Ali dozvolite mi da ilustrujem taj četvrti faktor

by looking at Qatar.

posmatrajući Katar.

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

Ovdje imamo današnji Katar, a tamo je Bangladeš.

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

Vratiću ove zemlje unazad do godine njihove nezavisnosti,

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

što je otprilike u isto vrijeme -- 71., 72. --

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se dogodio.

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

Pogledajmo Bangladeš i Katar.

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

Sa potpuno različitim prihodima, skoro je jednak pad

in number of babies per woman.

u broju beba po jednoj ženi.

And what is the reason in Qatar?

I šta je razlog tome u Kataru?

Well I do as I always do.

Dakle, uradiću ono što uvijek radim.

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

Otišao sam na internet stranice statističkih institucija Katara --

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

imaju veoma dobru stranicu, preporučujem je --

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

i kad sam pogledao - o da, možete se dobro zabaviti ovdje --

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

i preuzeo sam potpuno besplatno katarske socijalne trendove.

Very interesting. Lots to read.

Veoma interesantno. Mnogo toga za pročitati.

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

Pronašao sam ukupnu stopu plodnosti po ženi.

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

Ovo su naučnici i eksperti u zvaničnoj statističkoj agenciji Katara

and they say the most important factors are:

i oni kažu da su najvažniji faktori sljedeći:

"Increased age at first marriage,

"Starija dob pri stupanju u prvi brak,

increased educational level of Qatari woman

povećan nivo obrazovanja katarske žene

and more women integrated in the labor force."

i više žena integrisano u radnoj snazi."

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

Potpuno se slažem. Nauka je potpuno saglasna sa ovim.

This is a country that indeed has gone through

Ovo je zemlja koja je uistinu prošla kroz

a very, very interesting modernization.

veoma, veoma zanimljivu modernizaciju.

So what it is, is these four:

Dakle, tu su nabrojana četiri faktora:

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

djeca bi trebalo da prežive, ne bi trebalo da su potrebna za rad,

women should get education and join the labor force

žene bi trebalo da dobiju obrazovanje i da se priključe radnoj snazi

and family planning should be accessible.

i planiranje porodice bi trebalo biti dostupno.

Now look again at this.

Pogledajmo to sad ponovo.

The average number of children in the world

Prosječan broj djece u svijetu je

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

kao u Kolumbiji -- danas je 2,4.

There are countries up here which are very poor.

Postoje zemlje koje su veoma siromašne.

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

I to je tamo gdje je potrebno planiranje porodice i bolja stopa preživljavanja djece.

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

Iskreno preporučujem najnovije predavanje Melinde Gates na TED-u.

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

I ovdje, dolje, tu su mnoge zemlje koje imaju manje od dvoje djece po svakoj ženi.

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

Dakle, kad se vratim da vam odgovorim na kviz pitanje,

it's two.

odgovor je dva.

We have reached peak child.

Dostigli smo vrhunac broja djece.

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

Broj djece neće više rasti u svijetu.

We are still debating peak oil,

Još uvijek debatujemo oko vrhunca kad se radi o nafti,

but we have definitely reached peak child.

ali smo definitivno dostigli vrhunac kad se radi o djeci.

And the world population will stop growing.

I svjetska populacija će prestati rasti.

The United Nations Population Division has said

Odjel za populaciju Ujedinjenih nacija je rekao

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

da će prestati rasti na nivou od 10 milijardi.

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

Ali, zašto populacija raste ako se broj djece ne povećava?

Well I will show you here.

Pokazaću vam ovdje.

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

Koristiću ove kartonske kutije u kojima su stigli vaši notesi.

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

One su prilično korisne za edukacijske svrhe.

Each card box is one billion people.

Svaka kutija predstavlja milijardu ljudi.

And there are two billion children in the world.

I ovdje imamo dvije milijarde djece na svijetu.

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

Dvije milijarde mladih između 15 i 30 godina.

These are rounded numbers.

Ovo su zaokruženi brojevi.

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

Zatim imamo jednu milijardu onih između 30 i 45 godina,

almost one between 45 and 60.

i skoro jednu starosti 45 do 60 godina.

And then it's my box.

Zatim, tu je i moja kutija.

This is me: 60-plus.

Tu sam ja: preko 60.

We are here on top.

Mi smo na vrhu.

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

Ono što će se desiti je nazvano "veliko popunjavanje".

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

Možemo vidjeti da oko tri milijarde ovdje nedostaje.

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

Oni ne nedostaju zato što su umrli, nego zato što nisu ni rođeni.

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

Zato što je prije 1980., bilo mnogo manje ljudi rođeno

than there were during the last 30 years.

nego u proteklih 30 godina.

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

Ono što se dalje dešava je prilično jednostavno razumljivo.

The old, sadly, we will die.

Stari će, nažalost, umrijeti.

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

Većina vas će odrasti i imaćete dvije milijarde djece.

Then the old will die.

Zatim će stari umrijeti.

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

Ostali će odrasti i dobiti dvije milijarde djece.

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

A onda će takođe stari umrijeti i dobiće dvije milijarde djece.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

This is the great fill-up.

to je to veliko popunjavanje.

It's inevitable.

Neizbježno je.

And can you see that this increase took place

I možete li vidjeti da se ovo povećanje desilo

without life getting longer and without adding children?

bez da se život produžavao i bez dodavanja djece?

Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

Religije imaju veoma malo veze sa brojem beba koje rađa svaka žena.

All the religions in the world are fully capable

Sve religije na svijetu su potpuno sposobne

to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

održati njihove vrijednosti i prilagoditi se novom svijetu.

And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

Biće nas samo 10 milijardi na ovom svijetu,

if the poorest people get out of poverty,

ako najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva,

their children survive, they get access to family planning.

ako njihova djeca prežive i ako imaju pristup planiranju porodice.

That is needed.

To je potrebno.

But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

Ali je neizbježno da će nas biti dvije ili tri milijarde više.

So when you discuss and when you plan

Tako, kada diskutujete i kada planirate

for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

o resursima i energiji potrebnim za budućnost

for human beings on this planet,

za ljude na ovoj planeti,

you have to plan for 10 billion.

morate ih planirati za 10 milijardi.

Thank you very much.

Hvala mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)