Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Nikolai Kunitsõn Reviewer: Siim Kumpas

I'm going to talk about religion.

Ma räägin teile täna religioonist,

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

kuid see on lai ja väga tundlik teema

so I have to limit myself.

seega pean end piirama.

And therefore I will limit myself

Ja seega räägin teile vaid

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

religiooni ja seksuaalsuse vahelistest seostest.

(Laughter)

(Naer)

This is a very serious talk.

See tuleb tõsine ettkanne.

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

Sestap räägin teile vaid sellest, mida mäletan imeliseimana.

It's when the young couple whisper,

Kui noor paar sosistab:

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

„Täna öösel teeme lapse.“

My talk will be about the impact of religions

Minu ettekanne kõneleb religiooni mõjust

on the number of babies per woman.

laste arvule naise kohta.

This is indeed important,

See on tõepoolest oluline,

because everyone understands

kuna kõik mõistavad,

that there is some sort of limit

et sellel on piir,

on how many people we can be on this planet.

mitmekesi me sellele planeedile mahume.

And there are some people

Osa inimesi väidab,

who say that the world population is growing like this --

et maailma rahvaarv kasvab –

three billion in 1960,

kolm miljardit 1960. aastal,

seven billion just last year --

seitse miljardit eelmisel aastal –

and it will continue to grow

ja jätkab kasvamist,

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

sest osa religioone keelab naistel saada vähe lapsi,

and it may continue like this.

ja rahvaarv võibki jääda niimoodi kasvama.

To what extent are these people right?

Kuivõrd on nendel inimestel õigus?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

Kui mina sündisin, oli maailmas alla miljardi lapse,

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

täna, 2000. aastal on lapsi peaaegu kaks miljardit.

What has happened since,

Mis on vahepeal juhtunud

and what do the experts predict will happen

ja mis juhtub asjatundjate arvates

with the number of children during this century?

laste arvuga sel sajandil?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

See on viktoriin. Mida teie arvate?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

Kas teie arvates väheneb see taas ühe miljardini?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

Jääb samaks ja on sajandi lõpuks kaks miljardit?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

Kas kuni 15-aastaste laste arv suureneb igal aastal

or will it continue in the same fast rate

või jätkub sama kiire kasv

and be four billion children up there?

ja sajandi lõpuks on maailmas neli miljardit last?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

Ma avaldan teile vastuse oma ettekande lõpus.

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

Aga nüüd, kuidas on religioon kõige sellega seotud?

When you want to classify religion,

Religiooni on arvatust

it's more difficult than you think.

keerulisem klassifitseerida.

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

Te kasutate Vikipeediat ja esimene kaart, mille te leiate, on see.

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

See jagab maailma aabrahamlikeks usunditeks ja idamaiseks usundiks,

but that's not detailed enough.

kuid see pole piisavalt täpne.

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

Sukeldusime Vikipeedias sügavamale ja leidsime selle kaardi.

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

Kuid see jagab kristluse, islami ja budismi

into many subgroups,

paljudeks alarühmadeks,

which was too detailed.

mis oli jällegi liiga detailne.

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

Seetõttu koostasime ise Gapminderis kaardi,

and it looks like this.

mis näeb välja selline.

Each country's a bubble.

Iga riik on tähistatud mulliga.

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

Suurus viitab rahvaarvule – siin on suur Hiina ja suur India.

And the color now is the majority religion.

Värv on valitsev usund.

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

Ehk usund, millesse väidab end kuuluvat

say that they belong.

üle 50% inimestest.

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

Indias, Hiinas ja nende naaberriikides Aasias on valitsev idamaine religioon.

Islam is the majority religion

Islam on valitsev religioon

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

Alates Atlandi ookeanist, läbi Lähis-Ida,

Southern Europe and through Asia

Lõuna-Euroopa ja Aasia,

all the way to Indonesia.

kuni Indoneesiani välja.

That's where we find Islamic majority.

Sealt leiame islamiusuliste enamuse.

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

Kristlus on aga nende riikide valitsev religion. Need on sinised.

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

Nende sekka kuuluvad enamik Ameerika ja Euroopa riikidest,

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

paljud riigid Aafrikas ja mõned Aasias.

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

Valgega tähistatud riike ei saa klassifitseerida.

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

Neis riikides kas ei ületa ükski usund 50% künnist,

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

kaheldakse teada olevates andmetes või siis on mõni muu põhjus.

So we were careful with that.

Seega me olime nendega ettevaatlikud.

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

Varuge nüüd kannatust, et ma saaksin tutvustada teile seda pilti.

This is in 1960.

Aasta on 1960.

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

Näitan teile nüüd laste arvu naise kohta:

two, four or six --

kaks, neli või kuus –

many babies, few babies.

palju lapsi, vähe lapsi.

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

Ja siin on sissetulek inimese kohta võrreldavates dollarites.

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

Näitajad on tingitud inimeste arusaamast, et esmalt peab koguma rikkust

before you get few babies.

ja alles seejärel saama lapsed.

So low income here, high income there.

Seega väike sissetulek siin, suur sissetulek seal.

And indeed in 1960,

Ja tõepoolest

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

1960ndatel said vaid rikkad kristlased vähe lapsi.

The exception was Japan.

Erand oli Jaapan.

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

Ja Jaapanit peetigi erandlikuks.

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

Muidu kehtis see kristlikes riikides.

But there was also many Christian countries

Samas oli ka palju kristlikke riike,

that had six to seven babies per woman.

kus naise kohta sündis kuus-seitse last.

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

Kuid need olid Ladina-Ameerika või Aafrika riigid.

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

Peaaegu kõigis neis riikides, kus valdavaks religiooniks oli islam,

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

sündis naise kohta kuus-seitse last,

irregardless of the income level.

sõltumata perekonna sissetulekust.

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

Laste arv oli sarnane ka idamaistes religioonides, välja arvatud Jaapanis.

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

Vaatame nüüd, mis on vahepeal toimunud.

I start the world, and here we go.

Panen maailma käima ja läheb lahti.

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

1962 – kas näete, et inimesed saavad veidi rikkamaks,

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

aga laste arv naise kohta väheneb?

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

Vaadake Hiinat. Laste arv väheneb kiirelt.

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

Laste arv väheneb ka kõigis islami enamusega riikides,

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

nagu kristliku enamusega riikideski keskmise sissetulekuga inimeste puhul.

And when we enter into this century,

Sellesse sajandisse jõudes

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

leiate siit alt poolt enamuse inimkonnast.

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

2010. aastal elab 80% inimestest riikides,

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

kus on naise kohta umbes kaks last.

(Applause)

(Aplaus)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

Aset on leidnud üsna hämmastav areng.

(Applause)

(Aplaus)

And these are countries from United States here,

Siin on Ameerika Ühendriigid –

with $40,000 per capita,

sissetulek inimese kohta 40 000 dollarit –

France, Russia, Iran,

Prantsusmaa, Venemaa, Iraan,

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

Mehhiko, Türgi, Alžeeria,

Indonesia, India

Indoneesia, India

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

ja ka Bangladesh ja Vietnam,

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

kus on sissetulek ühe inimese kohta vähem kui 5% ameeriklaste samast näitajast,

and the same amount of babies per woman.

kuid naise kohta on lapsi sama palju.

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

Võin teile öelda, et andmed, mis näitavad laste arvu naise kohta,

is surprisingly good in all countries.

on kõikides riikides üllatavalt head.

We get that from the census data.

Kasutame rahvaloenduste andmeid,

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

mitte kaheldava väärtusega statistikat.

So what we can conclude

Võime seega järeldada:

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

selleks, et saada vähe lapsi, ei pea olema rikas.

It has happened across the world.

See on juhtunud kogu maailmas.

And then when we look at religions,

Kui me vaatame religioone,

we can see that the Eastern religions,

näeme, et üheski riigis, kus on

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

valitsev idamaine usund,

that has more than three children.

ei sünni naise kohta üle kolme lapse.

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

Riikides, kus on valitsev usund islam või kristlus,

you see countries all the way.

on lapsi naise kohta sageli rohkem.

But there's no major difference.

Siiski ei ole see erinevus suur.

There's no major difference between these religions.

Usundite vahel suurt erinevust pole.

There is a difference with income.

Erinevus on seotud sissetulekuga.

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

Nendes riikides, kus on naise kohta palju lapsi,

they have quite low income.

on sissetulekud üsna väiksed.

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Enamus neist asuvad Sahara-taguses Aafrikas.

But there are also countries here

Kuid siin on ka riigid nagu

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

Guatemala, Paapua Uus-Guinea,

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

Jeemen ja Afganistan.

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

Paljud arvavad, et Afganistanis ja Kongos,

which have suffered severe conflicts,

mida on räsinud tõsised konfliktid,

that they don't have fast population growth.

ei kasva rahvaarv kiiresti.

It's the other way around.

Kuid see on vastupidi.

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

Tänapäeval kasvab rahvaarv kõige kiiremini

that have the fastest population growth.

suurima suremusega riikides,

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

kuna lapse surma kompenseeritakse uue lapsega.

These countries have six children per woman.

Nendes riikides on naise kohta kuus last.

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

Kahjuks neis riikides ka sureb naise kohta üks-kaks last.

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

Kuid 30 aasta pärast on Afganistani rahvaarv 30 miljoni asemel 60 miljonit

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

ning Kongos 60 miljoni asemel 120 miljonit.

That's where we have the fast population growth.

Neis riikides on rahvaarvu kasv suur.

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

Paljud arvavad, et need on stagneerunud riigid, aga see ei ole nii.

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

Võrdleme Senegali – kus valitsev usund on islam –

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

Ghanaga, mille valitsev usund on kristlus.

I take them backwards here to their independence,

Vaatame aega, mil nad iseseisvusid.

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

1960ndate alguses olid nad siin üleval.

Just look what they have done.

Vaadake, mida nad on teinud.

It's an amazing improvement,

See on hämmastav areng,

from seven children per woman,

seitsmest lapsest naise kohta

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

on nüüdseks saanud neli-viis last naise kohta.

It's a tremendous improvement.

Vapustav edasiminek.

So what does it take?

Niisiis mida on selleks vaja?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

Teame üsna hästi, mida on nendes riikides vaja.

You need to have children to survive.

Ellujäämiseks on vaja lapsi.

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

Selleks, et perekonnad ei vajaks lapsi töötamiseks,

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

peab välja saama sügavamast vaesusest.

You need to have access to some family planning.

Inimestel peab olema võimalus pereplaneerimiseks.

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

Vaja on ka neljandat tegurit, mis on võib-olla ka kõige olulisem.

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

Selgitan seda neljandat tegurit,

by looking at Qatar.

vaadates Katari.

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

Siin on praegu Katar ja siin Bangladesh.

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

Kui vaadata neid riike iseseisvumise ajal,

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

mis toimus enam-vähem samal aastal – 1971, 1972 –

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

siis näeme, et toimunud on üsna hämmastav areng.

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

Vaadake Bangladeshi ja Katari.

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

Sissetulek on nii erinev, aga naise kohta sündinud

in number of babies per woman.

beebide arv on samamoodi vähenenud.

And what is the reason in Qatar?

Mis on Kataris selle põhjus?

Well I do as I always do.

Teen nii nagu alati.

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

Lähen Katari statistikaameti kodulehele –

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

see on väga hea koduleht, soovitan –

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

ning vaatan järele – oi, siin saab nalja –

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

ja leidsin Katari ühiskondlikud suundumused.

Very interesting. Lots to read.

Väga huvitav. Lugeda on palju.

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

Leidsin sündimuse ja vaatasin kogusündimust naise kohta.

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

Katari teadlased ja valitsuses töötavad asjatundjad väidavad,

and they say the most important factors are:

et kõige olulisemad tegurid on:

"Increased age at first marriage,

„Hilisem esimene abielu,

increased educational level of Qatari woman

Katari naiste haridustaseme paranemine

and more women integrated in the labor force."

ja naiste suurem osatähtsus tööjõus.“

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

Olen vägagi nõus. Teadus on vägagi nõus.

This is a country that indeed has gone through

See riik on tõepoolest läbinud

a very, very interesting modernization.

väga huvitava kaasajastamise.

So what it is, is these four:

Asi seisneb neis neljas faktoris:

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

lapsed peaksid ellu jääma, nende eesmärk ei tohiks olla töö,

women should get education and join the labor force

naised peaksid saama hariduse ja liituma tööjõuga

and family planning should be accessible.

ning peret peaks planeerima.

Now look again at this.

Vaadake nüüd uuesti seda.

The average number of children in the world

Praegu on maailmas lapsi keskmiselt

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

nagu Kolumbias – 2,4 last naise kohta.

There are countries up here which are very poor.

Siin üleval on väga vaesed riigid.

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

Siin on vaja pereplaneerimist ja seda, et rohkem lapsi jääks ellu.

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

Soovitan väga vaadata Melinda Gatesi viimast TED-il peetud kõnet.

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

Ja siin all on palju riike, kus on naise kohta alla kahe lapse.

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

Kui nüüd minna viktoriini juurde tagasi,

it's two.

võin öelda, et vastus on kaks.

We have reached peak child.

Oleme jõudnud laste sündimuse tippaega.

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

Maailmas enam laste arv ei suurene.

We are still debating peak oil,

Kahtleme, kas käes on naftatootmistipp,

but we have definitely reached peak child.

kuid laste sündimise tippaeg on kindlasti käes.

And the world population will stop growing.

Maailma rahvastik tulevikus enam ei suurene.

The United Nations Population Division has said

ÜRO rahvastiku osakonna väitel

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

lakkab rahvaarv suurenemast 10 miljardi juures.

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

Kuid miks rahvaarv suureneb, kui laste arv ei suurene?

Well I will show you here.

Näitan teile selle abil.

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

Kasutan neid pappkarpe, milles olid teie märkmikud.

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

Need on hariduslikel eesmärkidel üsna kasulikud.

Each card box is one billion people.

Iga pappkarp esindab miljardit inimest.

And there are two billion children in the world.

Maailmas on kaks miljardit last.

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

Kaks miljardit noort inimest vanuses 15–30.

These are rounded numbers.

Need on ümardatud arvud.

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

Miljard inimest on vanuses 30–45,

almost one between 45 and 60.

peaaegu miljard vanuses 45–60.

And then it's my box.

Ja siis tuleb minu karp.

This is me: 60-plus.

Siin on minu rühm: üle 60-aastased.

We are here on top.

Meie oleme siin üleval.

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

Nüüd juhtub see, mida me nimetame „suureks täitmiseks“.

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

Näete, et kolm miljardit oleks justkui puudu.

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

Nad ei puudu mitte seetõttu, et nad on surnud, vaid nad pole veel sündinudki.

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

Enne 1980. aastat sündis palju vähem inimesi

than there were during the last 30 years.

kui viimase 30 aasta jooksul.

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

Nüüd toimuma hakkav on üsna lihtne.

The old, sadly, we will die.

Kahjuks meie, vanad, sureme.

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

Teie, ülejäänud, saate vanemaks ja saate kaks miljardit last.

Then the old will die.

Siis surevad vanad.

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

Ülejäänud saavad vanemaks ja saavad kaks miljardit last.

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

Siis surevad taas vanad ja teie saate kaks miljardit last.

(Applause)

(Aplaus)

This is the great fill-up.

See on suur täitmine.

It's inevitable.

See on vältimatu.

And can you see that this increase took place

Kas näete, et see kasv toimus ilma,

without life getting longer and without adding children?

et eluiga pikeneks ja lapsi lisanduks?

Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

Usul on naise kohta sündivate lastega väga vähe pistmist.

All the religions in the world are fully capable

Kõikidel maailma usunditel on võime

to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

säilitada oma väärtushinnangud ja kohanduda uue maailmaga.

And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

Meid saab maailmas olema kõigest 10 miljardit,

if the poorest people get out of poverty,

kui vaeseimad inimesed saavad rikkamaks,

their children survive, they get access to family planning.

jäävad nende lapsed ellu ja nad saavad tegeleda pereplaneerimisega.

That is needed.

Seda on vaja.

But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

Kuid vältimatu on see, et inimesi saab olema paar-kolm miljardit rohkem.

So when you discuss and when you plan

Seega kui arutlete selle üle,

for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

kui palju on tulevikuks vaja energia ja muid varusid,

for human beings on this planet,

et rahuldada kõigi inimeste vajadusi,

you have to plan for 10 billion.

tuleb planeerida 10 miljardile inimesele.

Thank you very much.

Suur tänu teile.

(Applause)

(Aplaus)