Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

1,653,208 views ใƒป 2012-05-22

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์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: han soo yeon ๊ฒ€ํ† : Sang Hun Song
00:15
I'm going to talk about religion.
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์ €๋Š” ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ข…๊ต์— ๊ด€ํ•ด์„œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:19
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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์ข…๊ต๋Š” ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋„“๊ณ  ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ๋ถ„์•ผ์ด๊ธฐ์—,
00:24
so I have to limit myself.
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์ €๋Š” ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ์ œํ•œํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:26
And therefore I will limit myself
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์ œ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ์ œํ•œํ•ด ์˜ค์ง
00:28
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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์ข…๊ต์™€ ์„ฑ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋งŒ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:33
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
00:34
This is a very serious talk.
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์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ์ง„์ง€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:37
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ฉ‹์ง„ ์ผ์—๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:41
It's when the young couple whisper,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ Š์€ ์ปคํ”Œ์ด ์†์‚ญ์ด๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:43
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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"์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ฐค ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ด๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ฑฐ์•ผ"
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
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์ œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ฃผ์ œ๋Š” ์ข…๊ต๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•œ๋ช…๋‹น
00:52
on the number of babies per woman.
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์ถœ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ์•„๊ธฐ์˜ ์ˆ˜์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:56
This is indeed important,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ •๋ง ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:58
because everyone understands
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:59
that there is some sort of limit
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์ด ํ–‰์„ฑ์— ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
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์กด์žฌ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์—๋Š” ์ œํ•œ ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:05
And there are some people
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜์ฃ :
01:10
three billion in 1960,
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1960๋…„์— 30์–ต
01:12
seven billion just last year --
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์ž‘๋…„์—” 70์–ต
01:15
and it will continue to grow
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๊ณ„์† ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
01:16
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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์ด๋Š” ์—ฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ์•„์ด๋ฅผ ์ ๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ–๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง‰๋Š” ์ข…๊ต๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
01:20
and it may continue like this.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:22
To what extent are these people right?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋Š ์ •๋„๋กœ ์˜ณ์€ ๊ฒƒ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
01:26
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–ด๋‚  ๋•Œ๊นŒ์ง€๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋Š” 10์–ต์ด ์•ˆ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:31
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ , 2000๋…„์—” ๊ฑฐ์˜ 20์–ต์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:35
What has happened since,
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๊ทธ ์ดํ›„ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๊ณ ,
01:37
and what do the experts predict will happen
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์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ ์•„์ด๋“ค์˜ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฒˆ ์„ธ๊ธฐ์—๋Š”
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋˜๊ฐ€์š”?
01:42
This is a quiz. What do you think?
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์ด๊ฑด ํ€ด์ฆˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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๋‹ค์‹œ 10์–ต ์ธ๊ตฌ๋กœ ์ค„์–ด๋“ค๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์„ธ๊ธฐ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์ด 20์–ต์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
01:52
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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15๋…„์ด ๋ ๋•Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋งค๋…„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚ ๊นŒ์š”?
01:56
or will it continue in the same fast rate
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๋น ๋ฅธ ์†๋„๋กœ ๊ณ„์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ฐ€
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
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40์–ต์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
02:01
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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์ œ ์—ฐ์„ค ๋์— ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•ด ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ง€๊ธˆ์€, ์ข…๊ต๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ƒ๊ด€์ด ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
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'์ข…๊ต'๋ฅผ ์ •์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
02:12
it's more difficult than you think.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:13
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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์œ„ํ‚คํ”ผ๋””์•„์— ๊ฐ€์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€๋„๊ฐ€ ์ด๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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์ด ์ง€๋„๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์•„๋ธŒ๋ผํ•จ๊ณ„ ์ข…๊ต์™€ ๋™์–‘๊ณ„ ์ข…๊ต๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์ง€๋งŒ
02:22
but that's not detailed enough.
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ์ž์„ธํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์š”
02:24
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์œ„ํ‚คํ”ผ๋””์•„์—์„œ ๋” ์ฐพ์•„๋ดค๋”๋‹ˆ, ์ด ์ง€๋„๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด๊ฑด ๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต, ์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ๊ต, ๋ถˆ๊ต๋ฅผ
02:32
into many subgroups,
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๋งŽ์€ ํ•˜์œ„์ง‘๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆด๋Š”๋ฐ,
02:34
which was too detailed.
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์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ์„ธํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ <๊ฐญ๋งˆ์ธ๋”>์—์„œ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ง€๋„๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:39
and it looks like this.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:41
Each country's a bubble.
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๊ฐ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๋ฒ„๋ธ”๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
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์‚ฌ์ด์ฆˆ๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๊ณ -- ํฐ ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ํฐ ์ธ๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:48
And the color now is the majority religion.
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์ƒ‰์€ ๋Œ€ํ‘œ ์ข…๊ต๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด์ฃ 
02:52
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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๋Œ€ํ‘œ ์ข…๊ต๋ž€ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋„˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฏฟ๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š”
02:56
say that they belong.
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์ข…๊ต๋ฅผ ์ ์€ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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์ธ๋„์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์ฃผ๋ณ€ ์•„์‹œ์•„ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€ ๋™์–‘๊ณ„ ์ข…๊ต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:01
Islam is the majority religion
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์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋Œ€ํ‘œ ์ข…๊ต์ธ ์ง€์—ญ์€
03:03
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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๋Œ€์„œ์–‘๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ค‘๋™์„ ์ง€๋‚˜,
03:07
Southern Europe and through Asia
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๋‚จ๋ถ€์œ ๋Ÿฝ๊ณผ ์•„์‹œ์•„๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
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์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„๊นŒ์ง€ ํฌํ•จ๋˜์ฃ .
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
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์ด๊ณณ๋“ค์ด ์ฃผ๋กœ ์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ๊ต๋ฅผ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ณณ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ๊ต๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋กœ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ณณ์€, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ํŒŒ๋ž€์ƒ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:19
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด๊ณ 
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ ๋งŽ์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„์‹œ์•„์— ์กฐ๊ธˆ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:27
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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ํ•˜์–€์ƒ‰์€ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„๋  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ธ๋ฐ,
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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ํ•œ ์ข…๊ต๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ๋ฐ˜์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋„˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
03:32
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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์ •๋ณด์˜ ์‹ ๋น™์„ฑ์ด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๋Š” ๋“ฑ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ์ด์ฃ 
03:36
So we were careful with that.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์—” ์กฐ์‹ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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์ด ์‚ฌ์ง„์„ ๋ณด์‹ค๋• ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:41
This is in 1960.
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์ด๊ฑด 1960๋…„๋Œ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:43
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด์ œ ์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•œ๋ช…๋‹น ์ž๋…€ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:47
two, four or six --
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๋‘˜, ๋„ท, ์—ฌ์„ฏ
03:50
many babies, few babies.
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๋งŽ์€ ์ž๋…€ ์ˆ˜ , ์ ์€ ์ž๋…€ ์ˆ˜
03:52
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ๊ฐœ์ธ๋‹น ์†Œ๋“์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:55
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ธฐ์žฌํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋จผ์ € ๋ถ€์ž๊ฐ€ ๋˜์•ผ
03:59
before you get few babies.
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์•„์ด๋ฅผ ๋‚ณ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์—ฌ๊ธด ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ˆ˜์ž…, ์ €๊ธด ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ž…์„ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:04
And indeed in 1960,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ •๋ง๋กœ 1960๋…„์—,
04:06
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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์•„์ด๋ฅผ ์ ๊ฒŒ ๋‚ณ์œผ๋ ค๋ฉด ๋ˆ๋งŽ์€ ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต์ธ์ด ๋˜์–ด์•ผํ–ˆ์ฃ .
04:09
The exception was Japan.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ผ๋ณธ์€ ์˜ˆ์™ธ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:11
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ผ๋ณธ์€ ์˜ˆ์™ธ๋กœ ๊ฐ„์ฃผ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:14
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค๋งŒ ์˜ˆ์™ธ์˜€์„ ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
04:16
But there was also many Christian countries
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋˜ ํ•œํŽธ์œผ๋ก  ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต์ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ ์ค‘์—
04:18
that had six to seven babies per woman.
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ํ•œ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น 6~7๋ช…์˜ ์ž๋…€๋ฅผ ๋‘” ๊ณณ๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:21
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ผํ‹ด ์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นด๋‚˜ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์— ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ์„ ์ฃผ๋กœ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€,
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์—ฌ์„ฑ์€ 6~7๋ช…์˜ ์ž๋…€๋ฅผ ๋‘์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:35
irregardless of the income level.
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์ˆ˜์ž…์— ๊ด€๊ณ„์—†์ด ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ผ๋ณธ์„ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋™์–‘๊ณ„ ์ข…๊ต ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:42
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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์ด์ œ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋™์•ˆ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”.
04:44
I start the world, and here we go.
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”? ์ถœ๋ฐœ!
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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1962๋…„์—”, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ ์  ๋ถ€์œ ํ•ด์ง€๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ณด์ด๋‚˜์š”?
04:49
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ๋„ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ค„์–ด๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ ?
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”. ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ค„๊ณ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:54
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ๋“์— ๊ด€๊ณ„์—†์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฌด์Šฌ๋ฆผ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๋„ ์ค„์–ด๋“ค๊ณ ์žˆ์–ด์š”
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์˜ ์ค‘์‚ฐ์ธต์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์„ธ๊ธฐ์— ๋“ค์–ด์„œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด,
05:06
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
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์ธ๋ฅ˜์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ ์ด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜จ ๊ฑธ ๋ณด์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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2010๋…„์ด ๋˜์–ด์„œ๋Š”, ์ด์ œ ์ธ๋ฅ˜์˜ 80%๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น
05:14
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๋žต 2๋ช…์ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:19
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
05:22
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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๊ทธ๋™์•ˆ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๊ฝค ๋†€๋ž์ง€ ์•Š๋‚˜์š”.
05:26
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ๊ฑด๋ฐ,
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
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์†Œ๋“์€ 1์ธ๋‹น 4๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:33
France, Russia, Iran,
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ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค, ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„, ์ด๋ž€
05:36
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”, ํ„ฐํ‚ค, ์•Œ์ œ๋ฆฌ์•„
05:40
Indonesia, India
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์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„, ์ธ๋„
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ์™€ ๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๊นŒ์ง€
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€ 1์ธ๋‹น ์†Œ๋“์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ 5%์ด ์ฑ„ ์•ˆ๋˜๊ณ 
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
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์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๋Š” ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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์ €๋Š” ์ž์‹ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํƒ€๋Š”
05:55
is surprisingly good in all countries.
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๋ฏฟ์„๋งŒ ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:57
We get that from the census data.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ์–ป์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:59
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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์˜์‹ฌ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ •๋ณด๋“ค์ด ์•„๋‹Œ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
06:02
So what we can conclude
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์ด ๋‚˜์˜ค๋ƒ๋ฉด์€,
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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์•„์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„  ๋ˆ์ด ๋งŽ์„ ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:06
It has happened across the world.
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์ด ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ข…๊ต๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด
06:11
we can see that the Eastern religions,
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๋™์–‘๊ณ„ ์ข…๊ต๋ฅผ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค ์ค‘
06:14
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋„ ๋™์–‘๊ณ„ ์ข…๊ต๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋กœ ๋ฏฟ์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ์ž๋…€๊ฐ€
06:17
that has more than three children.
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์„ธ ๋ช… ์ด์ƒ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณธ ์ ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์— ์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋กœ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€,
06:23
you see countries all the way.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฒ”์œ„์— ๋ถ„ํฌ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:25
But there's no major difference.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํฐ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
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์ข…๊ต๋“ค ๊ฐ„์—๋Š” ํฐ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
06:30
There is a difference with income.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์†Œ๋“์—๋Š” ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:32
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€,
06:36
they have quite low income.
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์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์ ์€ ์†Œ๋“์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:38
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์‚ฌํ•˜๋ผ ์‚ฌ๋ง‰ ์ด๋‚จ์˜ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:42
But there are also countries here
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ํ•œํŽธ ๋˜ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค
06:44
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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๊ณผํ…Œ๋ง๋ผ๋‚˜, ํŒŒํ‘ธ์•„ ๋‰ด๊ธฐ๋‹ˆ
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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์˜ˆ๋ฉ˜, ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ฃ .
06:51
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์•„ํ”„์นด๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„๊ณผ ์ฝฉ๊ณ ๋Š”
06:55
which have suffered severe conflicts,
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๋งŽ์€ ์ถฉ๋Œ์„ ๊ฒช์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
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๋น ๋ฅธ ์ธ๊ตฌ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:01
It's the other way around.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:03
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„ , ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ด
07:07
that have the fastest population growth.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์ด ๋†’์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:09
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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ํ•œ ๋ช…์˜ ์•„์ด๊ฐ€ ์ฃฝ์€ ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•œ ์•„์ด์˜ ์ถœ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ƒ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
07:13
These countries have six children per woman.
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์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 6๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:16
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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์• ์„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„, ์•„์ด์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์€ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น 1~2๋ช…์ด์ฃ .
07:20
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ 30๋…„ํ›„์—”, ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์€ 3000๋งŒ์—์„œ 6000๋งŒ์ด ๋ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:24
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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์ฝฉ๊ณ ๋Š” 6000๋งŒ์—์„œ 1์–ต 2000๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ณณ๋“ค์ด ๋น ๋ฅธ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€ ์นจ์ฒด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋ฌด์Šฌ๋ฆผ์ด ๋งŽ์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ์ธ ์„ธ๋„ค๊ฐˆ์„
07:38
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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๊ธฐ๋…๊ต ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ธ ๊ฐ€๋‚˜์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•ด๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
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์ด ๋‘˜์„ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๊ฑฐ์Šฌ๋กœ ๋…๋ฆฝ์„ ์ด๋ฃฉํ–ˆ๋˜
07:44
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
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1960๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ๋กœ ๋˜๋Œ์•„ ๊ฐ€๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
07:48
Just look what they have done.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ™”ํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
07:50
It's an amazing improvement,
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์ •๋ง ๋†€๋ผ์šด ๋ฐœ์ „์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:52
from seven children per woman,
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์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•œ ๋ช…๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 6๋ช…์—์„œ,
07:54
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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์ญ‰- ๋‚ด๋ ค์™€ 4~5๋ช…์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:57
It's a tremendous improvement.
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์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ „์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:59
So what does it take?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ–ˆ๋‚˜์š”?
08:00
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ์ง€ ๊ฝค ์ž˜ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
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์ผ๋‹จ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์•„์ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:06
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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๊นŠ์€ ๊ฐ€๋‚œ์—์„œ ๋น ์ ธ๋‚˜์™€์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์•ผ ์•„์ด๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ ๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ์ด ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”
08:12
You need to have access to some family planning.
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๋˜ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์„ธ์šธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์žˆ์–ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:15
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  4๋ฒˆ์งธ ์š”์ธ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ๋ฐ, ์ด๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:19
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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4๋ฒˆ์งธ ์š”์ธ์„ ์ด์ œ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
08:22
by looking at Qatar.
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์นดํƒ€๋ฅด๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด
08:24
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์นดํƒ€๋ฅด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ €๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:28
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ์ž ๋…๋ฆฝ์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์—ˆ๋˜ ๋•Œ๋กœ ๋Œ๋ ค๋ณธ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
08:32
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๋…„๋„์ธ๋ฐ, 71๋…„ 72๋…„
08:35
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
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๊ฝค ๋†€๋ผ์šด ๋ฐœ์ „์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:39
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ์™€ ์นดํƒ€๋ฅด๋ฅผ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ˆ˜์ž…์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•œ ๋ช…๋‹น ์ž๋…€ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€
08:44
in number of babies per woman.
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์ค„์–ด๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฑด ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋น„์Šทํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:46
And what is the reason in Qatar?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์นดํƒ€๋ฅด์—๊ฒ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์›์ธ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
08:48
Well I do as I always do.
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์ €๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ญ์ƒ ํ•˜๋˜ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•ด๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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์ €๋Š” ์นดํƒ€๋ฅด์˜ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์›นํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€์„œ,
08:53
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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์ •๋ง ์ž˜ ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์›นํŽ˜์ด์ง€ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ถ”์ฒœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋’ค์ ธ๋ดค๋Š”๋ฐ, ์•„ ์—ฌ๊ธด ์ •๋ง ์žฌ๋ฐŒ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:02
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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๋ฌด๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ด์ฃผ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ ์š”. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์นดํƒ€๋ฅด์˜ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ํŠธ๋žœ๋“œ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:06
Very interesting. Lots to read.
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์ •๋ง ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ์ฃ , ์ฝ์„๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์ฒ™ ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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์ด ์ถœ์‚ฐ๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด์•˜๊ณ , ์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•œ๋ช…๋‹น ์ถœ์‚ฐ๋ฅ ๋„ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:13
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
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์นดํƒ€๋ฅด์˜ ์ •๋ถ€๊ธฐ๊ด€์˜ ํ•™์ž์™€ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์˜ ๋ง์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
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์ถœ์‚ฐ๋ฅ  ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์š”์ธ์€:
09:19
"Increased age at first marriage,
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์ดˆํ˜ผ์˜ ์—ฐ๋ น์ด ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ
09:21
increased educational level of Qatari woman
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์นดํƒ€๋ฅด ์—ฌ์„ฑ์˜ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋œ ๊ต์œก ์ˆ˜์ค€๊ณผ
09:24
and more women integrated in the labor force."
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๋…ธ๋™ ์ธ๊ตฌ์— ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋“ค์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋œ ๊ฒƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด์— ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋™์˜ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณผํ•™๋„ ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋™์˜ํ•˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
09:31
This is a country that indeed has gone through
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์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ๋Š” ์‹ค๋กœ ์ •๋ง ์ •๋ง ๋†€๋ผ์šด
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
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ํ˜„๋Œ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ฒช์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:37
So what it is, is these four:
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ตœ์ข… ์š”์ธ์€ ์ด 4๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฅผ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
09:40
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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์•„์ด๋“ค์€ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ์•„์•ผํ•˜๊ณ , ์•„์ด๋“ค์€ ๋…ธ๋™์œผ๋กœ ์ด์šฉ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ,
09:43
women should get education and join the labor force
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์—ฌ์„ฑ๋“ค์€ ๊ต์œก์„ ๋ฐ›๊ณ  ์ผ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผํ•˜๋ฉฐ,
09:46
and family planning should be accessible.
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๊ฐ€์กฑ ๊ณ„ํš์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:48
Now look again at this.
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์ด์ œ ์ด๊ฑธ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋ด์ฃผ์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
09:52
The average number of children in the world
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ์•„์ด๋“ค์˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š”
09:54
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
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์ฝœ๋กฌ๋น„์•„์•„์˜ ์ˆ˜์น˜์™€ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ 2.4๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:57
There are countries up here which are very poor.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ด๊ณณ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค ๊ฐ™์ด ๊ฐ€๋‚œํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:00
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ณณ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๊ณ„ํš์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ณ , ์•„์ด๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ์กด๋ฅ ์„ ๋†’์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:04
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
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์ €๋Š” ๋ฉœ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค ๊ฒŒ์ด์ธ ์˜ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ted ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ถ”์ฒœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:08
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ด ๋ฐ‘์—”, ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋‹น ์ž๋…€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 2๋ช…์ด ์•ˆ๋˜๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ด ๋งŽ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด์ œ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€์„œ ํ€ด์ฆˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์„ ํ•ด์ค€๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:17
it's two.
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๋‹ต์€ 2์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:19
We have reached peak child.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด์ œ ์ถœ์ƒ๋ฅ ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ ์— ์ด๋ฅด๋ €์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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์ด์ œ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ถœ์ƒ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:24
We are still debating peak oil,
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์„์œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์˜ ์ •์ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์„ ๋ฒŒ์ด์ง€๋งŒ,
10:26
but we have definitely reached peak child.
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ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ์ถœ์‚ฐ๋ฅ ์€ ์ •์ ์— ๋„์ฐฉํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:29
And the world population will stop growing.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋„ ๋”์ด์ƒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ตญ์€ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:34
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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100์–ต์ธ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๋ฉˆ์ถœ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ .
10:36
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์•„์ด๋“ค์˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋ฐ ์™œ ์ „์ฒด ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚ ๊นŒ์š”?
10:40
Well I will show you here.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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์ €๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ๊ณต์ฑ…์ด ๋‚˜์˜จ ์ด ์นด๋“œ ๋ฐ•์Šค๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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๊ต์œก์ƒ ๊ฝค ์œ ์šฉํ•˜๋”๊ตฐ์š”.
10:50
Each card box is one billion people.
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๊ฐ ์นด๋“œ๋ฐ•์Šค๋ฅผ 10์–ต ์ธ๊ตฌ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
10:53
And there are two billion children in the world.
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์„ธ๊ณ„์—” 20์–ต์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ฃ .
10:56
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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15์„ธ์™€ 30์„ธ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ์ Š์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ 20์–ต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:03
These are rounded numbers.
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์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ˜์˜ฌ๋ฆผ ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์น˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:04
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  30์„ธ์™€ 45์„ธ ์‚ฌ์ด์— 10์–ต์ด ์žˆ๊ณ 
11:09
almost one between 45 and 60.
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45์„ธ์™€ 60์„ธ ์‚ฌ์ด์—” ๊ฑฐ์˜ 10์–ต์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:13
And then it's my box.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฑด ์ œ ๋ฐ•์Šค ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
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์ œ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 60์„ธ ์ด์ƒ--
11:17
We are here on top.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ตœ์ •์ƒ์— ์žˆ์ฃ .
11:19
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ "๋นˆ ๊ณต๊ฐ„ ์ฑ„์šฐ๊ธฐ"๋ผ๋Š” ์ผ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:24
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ 30์–ต์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ์ž๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
11:27
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ฃฝ์–ด์„œ ๋ชจ์ž๋ž€ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์•„์ง ์ถœ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด 1980๋…„ ์ „์—” ์ตœ๊ทผ 30๋…„๋™์•ˆ ๋ณด๋‹ค
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ํƒœ์–ด๋‚ฌ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:38
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ข€ ์ง์„ค์ ์ธ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
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๋Š™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์• ์„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ฃฝ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:44
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€, ๋”์šฑ๋” ๋Š™์–ด์„œ 20์–ต์˜ ์•„์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:49
Then the old will die.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋˜ ๋Š™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ฃฝ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ€ ๋“ค๊ณ  20์–ต์˜ ์•„์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋˜ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋Š™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ฃฝ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ 20์–ต์˜ ์•„์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:01
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ "๋นˆ ๊ณต๊ฐ„ ์ฑ„์šฐ๊ธฐ"์ด์ฃ .
12:07
It's inevitable.
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ”ผํ•˜์ฃ .
12:10
And can you see that this increase took place
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด ๋Š˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ 
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
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์ถœ์‚ฐ๋ฅ ์ด ๋Š˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š์•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์•˜๋‚˜์š”?
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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์ข…๊ต๋Š” ์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•œ๋ช…๋‹น ์ž๋…€ ์ˆ˜์™€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ด€๋ จ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:22
All the religions in the world are fully capable
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ข…๊ต๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ์ง€ํ‚ค๊ณ 
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์ ์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:31
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 100์–ต์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:36
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ€๋‚œํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋‚œ์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ ,
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์•„์ด๋“ค์ด ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ๊ณ , ๊ฐ€์กฑ ๊ณ„ํš์ด ์ „๋‹ฌ์ด ๋˜๋ฉด ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:43
That is needed.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์ˆ˜์ฃ .
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ 20~30์–ต ๋” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ”ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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์ž์›๊ณผ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ํ† ๋ก ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณ„ํšํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
12:57
for human beings on this planet,
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์ด ์ง€๊ตฌ์ƒ์˜ ์ธ๊ฐ„๋“ค์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
12:59
you have to plan for 10 billion.
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100์–ต ์ธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์žก์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:04
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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