Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevoditelj: Katarina Smetko Recezent: Suzana Baric

I'm going to talk about religion.

Govorit ću o religiji.

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

Ali to je široka i osjetljiva tema

so I have to limit myself.

pa se moram ograničiti.

And therefore I will limit myself

Stoga ću se ograničiti

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

samo na vezu između religije i spolnosti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

This is a very serious talk.

Ovo je vrlo ozbiljan govor.

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

Govorit ću o onome čega se sjećam kao najljepšeg.

It's when the young couple whisper,

Onoga kad mladi par šapuće:

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

"Večeras ćemo napraviti dijete."

My talk will be about the impact of religions

Moj će govor biti o utjecaju religija

on the number of babies per woman.

na broj djece po ženi.

This is indeed important,

To je zaista važno

because everyone understands

jer svima je jasno

that there is some sort of limit

da postoji nekakav limit

on how many people we can be on this planet.

koliko ljudi može biti na ovom planetu.

And there are some people

Postoje neki ljudi

who say that the world population is growing like this --

koji kažu da svjetska populacija raste ovako --

three billion in 1960,

tri miljarde 1960. godine,

seven billion just last year --

sedam milijardi lani --

and it will continue to grow

i nastavit će rasti

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

jer postoje religije koje ne dopuštaju ženama da imaju malo djece,

and it may continue like this.

i moglo bi se tako nastaviti.

To what extent are these people right?

U kojoj su mjeri ti ljudi u pravu?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

Kad sam se ja rodio, na svijetu je bilo manje od milijardu djece,

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

a 2000. godine bilo ih je gotovo dvije milijarde.

What has happened since,

Što se dogodilo otada

and what do the experts predict will happen

i što stručnjaci predviđaju da će se dogoditi

with the number of children during this century?

s brojem djece tijekom ovog stoljeća?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

Ovo je kratki ispit. Što mislite?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

Mislite li da će pasti na jednu milijardu?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

Hoće li ostati isti do kraja stoljeća i također iznositi dvije milijarde?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

Hoće li se broj djece do 15 godina povećavati

or will it continue in the same fast rate

ili će nastaviti rasti jednako brzim tempom

and be four billion children up there?

te do tada iznositi četiri milijarde djece?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

Odgovorit ću vam do kraja ovog govora.

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

No, što religija ima s time?

When you want to classify religion,

Klasificiranje religija

it's more difficult than you think.

teže je no što mislite.

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

Otiđite na Wikipediju i prvo ćete naći ovu kartu.

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

Ona dijeli svijet na abrahamske i istočne religije,

but that's not detailed enough.

ali to nije dovoljno detaljno.

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

Dakle, kad smo dalje potražili na Wikipediji, pronašli smo ovu kartu.

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

Ona dalje dijeli kršćanstvo, islam i budizam

into many subgroups,

u mnoge podskupine,

which was too detailed.

što je bilo previše detaljno.

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

Stoga smo u Gapminderu izradili vlastitu kartu,

and it looks like this.

koja izgleda ovako.

Each country's a bubble.

Svaku zemlju predstavlja kružić.

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

Veličina označava populaciju, ovdje su velike Kina i Indija.

And the color now is the majority religion.

Boja predstavlja većinsku religiju.

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

Radi se o religiji kojoj više od 50% stanovništva

say that they belong.

kaže da pripada.

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

To su istočne religije u Kini i okolnim azijskim državama.

Islam is the majority religion

Islam je većinska religija

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

od Atlantskog oceana i na cijelom Bliskom istoku,

Southern Europe and through Asia

u južnoj Europi i u dijelovima Azije

all the way to Indonesia.

sve do Indonezije.

That's where we find Islamic majority.

Tu je islamska većina.

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

Zemlje s kršćanskom većinom označene su plavim.

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

To je većina zemalja u Americi i Europi,

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

mnogo zemalja u Africi i nekoliko u Aziji.

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

Bijelo su zemlje koje se ne mogu klasificirati

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

jer nijedna vjera ne obuhvaća 50% stanovništva

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

ili postoji sumnja u podatke i slično.

So we were careful with that.

Pazili smo na to.

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

Tolerirajte naše pojednostavljivanje pri sljedećem prikazu.

This is in 1960.

Ovo je 1960. godina.

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

Ovdje pokazujem broj djece po ženi:

two, four or six --

dvoje, četvero ili šestero --

many babies, few babies.

mnogo djece, malo djece.

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

Ovo su prihodi po osobi u dolarima.

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

To je zato što mnogi ljudi kažu da se prvo morate obogatiti

before you get few babies.

da biste imali malo djece.

So low income here, high income there.

Niski prihodi ovdje, a visoki ovdje.

And indeed in 1960,

I zaista, 1960. godine

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

morali ste biti bogat kršćanin da biste imali malo djece.

The exception was Japan.

Iznimka je bio Japan.

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

Japan smo smatrali iznimkom.

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

Ostalo su bile samo kršćanske zemlje.

But there was also many Christian countries

No, bilo je i mnogo kršćanskih zemalja

that had six to seven babies per woman.

koje su imale 6 do 7 djece po ženi.

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

No, to je bilo u Latinskoj Americi ili u Africi.

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

Zemlje u kojima je islam većinska religija

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

gotovo su sve imale 6 do 7 djece po ženi,

irregardless of the income level.

bez obzira na visinu prihoda.

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

Sve istočne religije, osim Japana, imale su jednak broj.

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

Pogledajmo što se dogodilo u svijetu.

I start the world, and here we go.

Pokrećem svijet, i evo ga.

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

1962. godina -- vidite da postaju malo bogatiji,

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

no broj djece po ženi pada.

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

Pogledajte Kinu. Broj pada prilično brzo.

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

Sve zemlje s muslimanskom većinom, bez obzira na prihode, spuštaju se,

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

kao i zemlje s kršćanskom većinom u dijelu sa srednjim prihodima.

And when we enter into this century,

A kad uđemo u ovo stoljeće,

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

ovdje dolje pronaći ćete više od polovice čovječanstva.

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

Do 2010. godine, 80 posto ljudi

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

živi u zemljama s oko dvoje djece po ženi.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

Došlo je do zapanjujućih promjena.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

And these are countries from United States here,

Ovo su zemlje od SAD-a, ovdje,

with $40,000 per capita,

s 40.000 dolara po glavi,

France, Russia, Iran,

Francuska, Rusija, Iran,

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

Meksiko, Turska, Alžir,

Indonesia, India

Indonezija, Indija

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

i sve do Bangladeša i Vijetnama,

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

koji ima manje od 5% prihoda po osobi u SAD-u

and the same amount of babies per woman.

i jednak broj djece po ženi.

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

Podaci o broju djece po ženi

is surprisingly good in all countries.

iznenađujuće su dobri u svim zemljama.

We get that from the census data.

Dobili smo ih iz popisa stanovništva.

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

Nijedan od ovih podataka nije sumnjiv.

So what we can conclude

Možemo, dakle, zaključiti

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

da ne morate biti bogati da biste imali malo djece.

It has happened across the world.

To se dogodilo u cijelome svijetu.

And then when we look at religions,

Kad pogledamo religije,

we can see that the Eastern religions,

vidimo da kod istočnih religija,

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

nijedna zemlja s takvom većinskom vjerom

that has more than three children.

nema više od troje djece.

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

No, gdje je većinska religija islam ili kršćanstvo

you see countries all the way.

vidite zemlje u cijelom rasponu.

But there's no major difference.

No, nema velike razlike.

There's no major difference between these religions.

Nema velike razlike između tih vjera.

There is a difference with income.

Postoje razlike u prihodima.

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

Zemlje koje imaju mnogo djece po ženi, ovdje,

they have quite low income.

imaju prilično niske prihode.

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Većina ih je u subsaharskoj Africi.

But there are also countries here

No, ima i zemalja

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

poput Gvatemale, Papue Nove Gvineje,

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

Jemena i Afganistana.

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

Mnogi misle da Afganistan, ovdje, i Kongo,

which have suffered severe conflicts,

koji su doživjeli teške sukobe,

that they don't have fast population growth.

da oni nemaju brz porast populacije.

It's the other way around.

Upravo je suprotno.

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

Danas je slučaj da zemlje koje imaju najvišu smrtnost

that have the fastest population growth.

imaju i najbrži porast populacije.

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

Smrt djeteta nadoknađuje se još jednim djetetom.

These countries have six children per woman.

Te zemlje imaju šestero djece po ženi.

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

Imaju tužnu smrtnost od jednog do dva djeteta po ženi.

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

Kroz 30 godina, Afganistan će narasti s 30 na 60 milijuna ljudi.

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

Kongo će narasti sa 60 na 120.

That's where we have the fast population growth.

Tu postoji brz porast populacije.

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

Mnogi misle da te zemlje stagniraju, što nije točno.

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

Usporedimo Senegal, zemlju u kojoj dominiraju muslimani,

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

sa zemljom u kojoj dominiraju kršćani, Ganom.

I take them backwards here to their independence,

Vraćam ih u vrijeme kad su stekle nezavisnost,

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

kad su bile ovdje gore početkom 1960-ih.

Just look what they have done.

Pogledajte što se dogodilo.

It's an amazing improvement,

To je zapanjujuće poboljšanje,

from seven children per woman,

od sedmero djece po ženi,

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

spustili su se na četvero do petero.

It's a tremendous improvement.

To je izvanredno poboljšanje.

So what does it take?

Što je potrebno za to?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

Dobro znamo što je potrebno u tim zemljama.

You need to have children to survive.

Potrebno je da djeca prežive.

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

Potreban je izlazak iz najtežeg siromaštva

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

kako djeca ne bi bila potrebna za rad u obitelji.

You need to have access to some family planning.

Potrebna je mogućnost planiranja obitelji.

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

Potreban je i četvrti, možda najvažniji, faktor.

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

Ilustrirat ću taj četvrti faktor

by looking at Qatar.

na primjeru Katara.

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

Ovdje je Katar danas, a ovdje Bangladeš.

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

Ako te zemlje vratimo u vrijeme kad su stekle nezavisnost,

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

što je gotovo ista godina -- '71., '72. --

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

zapanjujuć je razvoj koji su doživjele.

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

Pogledajte Bangladeš i Katar.

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

S tako različitim prihodima, imaju gotovo jednak pad

in number of babies per woman.

broja djece po ženi.

And what is the reason in Qatar?

Što je razlog tome u Kataru?

Well I do as I always do.

Učinio sam što i uvijek.

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

Otišao sam na internetsku stranicu ureda za statistiku u Kataru --

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

stranica je vrlo dobra, preporučam --

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

i potražio sam -- da, tu se možete odlično zabaviti --

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

i pronašao besplatno dostupne društvene trendove u Kataru.

Very interesting. Lots to read.

Vrlo zanimljivo. Ima mnogo za čitati.

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

Pronašao sam natalitet pri rođenju, a potražio sam i ukupni natalitet po ženi.

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

To su znanstvenici i stručnjaci u vladinoj agenciji u Kataru,

and they say the most important factors are:

i oni kažu da su najvažniji faktori sljedeći:

"Increased age at first marriage,

"Kasnije stupanje u prvi brak,

increased educational level of Qatari woman

viša razina obrazovanja katarskih žena

and more women integrated in the labor force."

i više zaposlenih žena."

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

U potpunosti se slažem. Znanost se u potpunosti slaže.

This is a country that indeed has gone through

Radi se o zemlji koja je zaista doživjela

a very, very interesting modernization.

vrlo, vrlo zanimljivu modernizaciju.

So what it is, is these four:

Radi se, dakle, o ovih četiri:

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

djeca trebaju preživjeti, djeca ne smiju biti potrebna za rad,

women should get education and join the labor force

žene se trebaju obrazovati i zaposliti

and family planning should be accessible.

i treba biti dostupno planiranje obitelji.

Now look again at this.

Pogledajte ponovno ovo.

The average number of children in the world

Prosječan broj djece u svijetu

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

jest kao u Kolumbiji -- danas je 2,4.

There are countries up here which are very poor.

Ovdje gore ima zemalja koje su vrlo siromašne.

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

I tu je potrebno planiranje obitelji, preživljavanje više djece.

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

Iskreno preporučujem TEDTalk Melinde Gates.

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

Ovdje dolje su zemlje koje imaju manje od dvoje djece po ženi.

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

Kad se vratim na pitanje iz kratkog ispita,

it's two.

odgovor je broj 2.

We have reached peak child.

Dosegli smo najveći broj djece.

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

Broj djece u svijetu više ne raste.

We are still debating peak oil,

Još raspravljamo o najvećoj količini nafte,

but we have definitely reached peak child.

ali definitivno smo dosegli najviše djece.

And the world population will stop growing.

Svjetska će populacija prestati rasti.

The United Nations Population Division has said

Odjel UN-a za populaciju rekao je

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

da će prestati rasti na 10 milijardi.

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

No, zašto populacija raste ako broj djece ne raste?

Well I will show you here.

Pokazat ću vam.

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

Koristit ću kutije u kojima su stigle vaše bilježnice.

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

Vrlo su korisne za obrazovne svrhe.

Each card box is one billion people.

Svaka kutija predstavlja milijardu ljudi.

And there are two billion children in the world.

Na svijetu su dvije milijarde ljudi.

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

Dvije su milijarde mladih između 15 i 30 godina.

These are rounded numbers.

Ovo su zaokruženi brojevi.

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

Jedna je milijarda između 30 i 45 godina,

almost one between 45 and 60.

gotovo jedna između 45 i 60.

And then it's my box.

A evo i moje kutije.

This is me: 60-plus.

Ovdje sam ja: stariji od 60.

We are here on top.

Mi smo ovdje na vrhu.

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

Sada će doći do takozvanog "velikog popunjavanja".

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

Vidite da izgleda kao da ovdje nedostaju tri milijarde.

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

No, oni nisu umrli; nisu se ni rodili.

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

Prije 1980. godine rodilo se mnogo manje ljudi

than there were during the last 30 years.

nego u proteklih 30 godina.

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

Prilično je očito što će se sada dogoditi.

The old, sadly, we will die.

Stari će, nažalost, umrijeti.

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

Vi ostali ćete odrasti i dobiti dvije milijarde djece.

Then the old will die.

Zatim će stari umrijeti.

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

Ostali će odrasti i dobiti dvije milijarde djece.

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

Zatim će stari opet umrijeti i vi ćete dobiti dvije milijarde djece.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

This is the great fill-up.

To je veliko popunjavanje.

It's inevitable.

Neizbježno je.

And can you see that this increase took place

Vidite da je do povećanja došlo

without life getting longer and without adding children?

i bez produljenja života i rađanja više djece?

Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

Religija ima vrlo malo veze s brojem djece po ženi.

All the religions in the world are fully capable

Sve su religije na svijetu potpuno sposobne

to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

zadržati svoje vrijednosti i prilagoditi se novome svijetu.

And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

Bit će nas samo 10 milijardi na svijetu

if the poorest people get out of poverty,

ako se najsiromašniji izvuku iz siromaštva,

their children survive, they get access to family planning.

ako će im djeca preživjeti i ako im bude omogućeno planiranje obitelji.

That is needed.

To je potrebno.

But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

No, neizbježno je da nas bude 2 do 3 milijarde više.

So when you discuss and when you plan

Stoga, kad raspravljate i kad planirate

for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

resurse i energiju potrebnu za budućnost,

for human beings on this planet,

za ljude na planetu,

you have to plan for 10 billion.

morate planirati za 10 milijardi ljudi.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)