Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

1,662,666 views ใƒป 2012-05-22

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ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุฃุฏู†ุงู‡ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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ุงู„ู…ุชุฑุฌู…: khalid marbou ุงู„ู…ุฏู‚ู‘ู‚: Orientation Student
00:15
I'm going to talk about religion.
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ุณูˆู ุฃุชุญุฏุซ ู„ูƒู… ุนู† ุงู„ุฏูŠู†.
00:19
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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ูˆู„ูƒู†ู‡ ู…ูˆุถูˆุน ูˆุงุณุน ูˆุญุณุงุณ ู„ู„ุบุงูŠุฉุŒ
00:24
so I have to limit myself.
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ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ูŠุฌุจ ุฃู† ุฃุถุน ุญุฏูˆุฏุงู‹ ู„ู†ูุณูŠ.
00:26
And therefore I will limit myself
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ุณุฃู‚ุชุตุฑ
00:28
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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ูู‚ุท ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุญุฏูŠุซ ุนู† ุงู„ุตู„ุงุช ุจูŠู† ุงู„ุฏูŠู† ูˆุงู„ุญูŠุงุฉ ุงู„ุฌู†ุณูŠุฉ.
00:33
(Laughter)
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(ุถุญูƒ)
00:34
This is a very serious talk.
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ูˆู‡ุฐุง ุญุฏูŠุซ ุฌุฏูŠ ู„ู„ุบุงูŠุฉ.
00:37
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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ู„ุฐุง ุณุฃุชุญุฏุซ ุนู…ุง ุฃุชุฐูƒุฑ ุฃู†ู‡ ุงู„ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุฑูˆุนุฉ.
00:41
It's when the young couple whisper,
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ุญูŠู† ูŠู‡ู…ุณ ุงู„ุฒูˆุฌุงู† ุงู„ุดุงุจุงู†ุŒ
00:43
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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"ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู„ูŠู„ุฉ ุณู†ู‚ูˆู… ุจุฅุฎุฑุงุฌ ุทูู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ูˆุฌูˆุฏ."
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
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ุณูŠูƒูˆู† ุญุฏูŠุซูŠ ุญูˆู„ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑ ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช
00:52
on the number of babies per woman.
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ุนู„ู‰ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
00:56
This is indeed important,
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ูˆู‡ุฐุง ู…ู‡ู… ููŠ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนุŒ
00:58
because everyone understands
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ู„ุฃู† ุงู„ุฌู…ูŠุน ูŠุฏุฑูƒ
00:59
that there is some sort of limit
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ุฃู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู†ูˆุนุงู‹ ู…ู† ุงู„ุญุฏ
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
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ู„ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุณูƒุงู† ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠู…ูƒู† ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู†ูˆุง ุนู„ู‰ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูƒูˆูƒุจ.
01:05
And there are some people
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ูˆู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุจุนุถ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
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ุงู„ุฐูŠู† ูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆู† ุฃู† ุนุฏุฏ ุณูƒุงู† ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ูŠู†ู…ูˆ ู‡ูƒุฐุง --
01:10
three billion in 1960,
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ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช ููŠ ุณู†ุฉ 1960ุŒ
01:12
seven billion just last year --
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ุณุจุนุฉ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช ูู‚ุท ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู… ุงู„ู…ุงุถูŠ --
01:15
and it will continue to grow
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ูˆุณูŠูˆุงุตู„ ุงู„ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ู†ู…ูˆ
01:16
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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ู„ุฃู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ุชู…ู†ุน ุงู„ู…ุฑุฃุฉ ู…ู† ุงู„ุญุตูˆู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุนุฏุฏ ู‚ู„ูŠู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ุŒ
01:20
and it may continue like this.
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ูˆู‚ุฏ ูŠุณุชู…ุฑ ู‡ูƒุฐุง.
01:22
To what extent are these people right?
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ุฅู„ู‰ ุฃูŠ ู…ุฏู‰ ู‡ุคู„ุงุก ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู…ุญู‚ูˆู†ุŸ
01:26
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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ุญูŠู† ูˆู„ุฏุช ูƒุงู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฃู‚ู„ ู…ู† ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑ ุทูู„ ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…ุŒ
01:31
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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ูˆุงู„ูŠูˆู…ุŒ ุณู†ุฉ 2000ุŒ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงู† ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง.
01:35
What has happened since,
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ู…ุง ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุญุฏุซ ู…ู†ุฐ ุฐู„ูƒ ุงู„ุญูŠู†ุŒ
01:37
and what do the experts predict will happen
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ูˆู…ุง ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠุชู†ุจุค ุงู„ุฎุจุฑุงุก ุญุฏูˆุซู‡
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
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ู„ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ุฎู„ุงู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู‚ุฑู†ุŸ
01:42
This is a quiz. What do you think?
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ู‡ุฐุง ุงุฎุชุจุงุฑ. ู…ุงุฐุง ุชุนุชู‚ุฏูˆู†ุŸ
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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ู‡ู„ ุชุธู†ูˆู† ุฃู†ู‡ ุณูŠู†ุฎูุถ ุฅู„ู‰ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑ ูˆุงุญุฏุŸ
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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ู‡ู„ ุณูŠุจู‚ู‰ ูƒู…ุง ู‡ูˆ ูˆูŠูƒูˆู† ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑูŠู† ุจุญู„ูˆู„ ู†ู‡ุงูŠุฉ ุงู„ู‚ุฑู†ุŸ
01:52
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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ู‡ู„ ุณูŠุฒุฏุงุฏ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ูƒู„ ุณู†ุฉ ุฅู„ู‰ ุญุฏูˆุฏ 15 ุณู†ุฉุŒ
01:56
or will it continue in the same fast rate
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ุฃูˆ ุฃู†ู‡ ุณูŠุณุชู…ุฑ ุจู†ูุณ ุงู„ู…ุนุฏู„ ุงู„ุณุฑูŠุน
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
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ู„ูŠูƒูˆู† ุฃุฑุจุนุฉ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช ุทูู„ ูƒู…ุง ููŠ ุงู„ุฃุนู„ู‰ ู‡ู†ุงูƒุŸ
02:01
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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ุณูˆู ุฃุฎุจุฑูƒู… ุงู„ุฌูˆุงุจ ููŠ ู†ู‡ุงูŠุฉ ูƒู„ู…ุชูŠ.
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ ู…ุง ุฏุฎู„ ุงู„ุฏูŠู† ููŠ ู‡ุฐุงุŸ
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
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ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชุฑูŠุฏ ุชุตู†ูŠู ุงู„ุฏูŠู†ุŒ
02:12
it's more difficult than you think.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ุฃุตุนุจ ู…ู…ุง ุชุนุชู‚ุฏ.
02:13
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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ุชุฐู‡ุจ ุฅู„ู‰ ูˆูŠูƒูŠุจูŠุฏูŠุง ูˆุฃูˆู„ ุฎุฑูŠุทุฉ ุชุฌุฏู‡ุง ู‡ูŠ ู‡ุฐู‡.
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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ูˆู‡ูŠ ุชู‚ุณู… ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุฅุจุฑุงู‡ูŠู…ูŠุฉ ูˆุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุดุฑู‚ูŠุฉุŒ
02:22
but that's not detailed enough.
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุฐู„ูƒ ู„ูŠุณ ู…ูุตู„ุงู‹ ุจู…ุง ููŠู‡ ุงู„ูƒูุงูŠุฉ.
02:24
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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ูˆู‡ูƒุฐุง ุงุณุชู…ุฑูŠู†ุง ูˆุจุญุซู†ุง ููŠ ูˆูŠูƒูŠุจูŠุฏูŠุงุŒ ููˆุฌุฏู†ุง ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฎุฑูŠุทุฉ.
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุฐู„ูƒ ูŠู‚ุณู… ุงู„ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉ ูˆุงู„ุฅุณู„ุงู… ูˆุงู„ุจูˆุฐูŠุฉ
02:32
into many subgroups,
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ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุฌู…ูˆุนุงุช ุงู„ูุฑุนูŠุฉุŒ
02:34
which was too detailed.
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ูˆุงู„ุชูŠ ูƒุงู†ุช ุดุฏูŠุฏุฉ ุงู„ุชูุตูŠู„.
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ุฑุณู…ู†ุง ุฎุฑูŠุทุชู†ุง ุงู„ุฎุงุตุฉ ููŠ ู‚ุงุจ-ู…ุงูŠู†ุฏุฑุŒ
02:39
and it looks like this.
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ูˆู‡ูŠ ุชุจุฏูˆ ู‡ูƒุฐุง.
02:41
Each country's a bubble.
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ูƒู„ ุจู„ุฏ ุนู„ู‰ ุดูƒู„ ูู‚ุงุนุฉ.
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
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ุงู„ุญุฌู… ูŠุฑู…ุฒ ุฅู„ู‰ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุณูƒุงู† -- ุงู„ุตูŠู† ูƒุจูŠุฑุฉุŒ ูˆุงู„ู‡ู†ุฏ ูƒุจูŠุฑุฉ ู‡ู†ุง.
02:48
And the color now is the majority religion.
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ูˆุงู„ู„ูˆู† ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุฉ ุงู„ุฑุฆูŠุณูŠุฉ.
02:52
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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ูˆู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุฏูŠู† ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠู‚ูˆู„ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู† 50 ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุงุฆุฉ
02:56
say that they belong.
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ู…ู† ุงู„ุณูƒุงู† ุฃู†ู‡ู… ูŠู†ุชู…ูˆู† ุฅู„ูŠู‡.
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุดุฑู‚ูŠุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ู‡ู†ุฏ ูˆุงู„ุตูŠู† ูˆุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุงู„ุขุณูŠูˆูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุฌุงูˆุฑุฉ.
03:01
Islam is the majority religion
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ุงู„ุฅุณู„ุงู… ู‡ูˆ ุฏูŠู† ุงู„ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ
03:03
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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ุนู„ู‰ ุทูˆู„ ุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุญูŠุท ุงู„ุฃุทู„ุณูŠ ู…ุฑูˆุฑุงู‹ ุนุจุฑ ู…ู†ุทู‚ุฉ ุงู„ุดุฑู‚ ุงู„ุฃูˆุณุทุŒ
03:07
Southern Europe and through Asia
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ุฌู†ูˆุจ ุฃูˆุฑูˆุจุง ูˆุนุจุฑ ุขุณูŠุง
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
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ุฅู„ู‰ ุฃู† ู†ุตู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุฅู†ุฏูˆู†ูŠุณูŠุง.
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
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ูˆู‡ุฐุง ุญูŠุซ ู†ุฌุฏ ุงู„ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฅุณู„ุงู…ูŠุฉ.
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
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ูˆุงู„ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ุงู„ุฏูŠู†ูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉุŒ ู†ุฑุงู‡ุง ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู†. ุจุงู„ุฃุฒุฑู‚.
03:19
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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ูˆู‡ูŠ ู…ุนุธู… ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุฃู…ุฑูŠูƒุง ูˆุฃูˆุฑูˆุจุงุŒ
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ููŠ ุฃูุฑูŠู‚ูŠุง ูˆุงู„ุจุนุถ ููŠ ุขุณูŠุง.
03:27
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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ูˆุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุงู„ุจูŠุถุงุก ู‡ู†ุง ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุง ูŠู…ูƒู† ุชุตู†ูŠูู‡ุงุŒ
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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ู„ุฃู† ุฏูŠุงู†ุฉ ูˆุงุญุฏุฉ ู„ู… ุชุตู„ ุฅู„ู‰ 50 ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุงุฆุฉ
03:32
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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ุฃูˆ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุดูƒ ุญูˆู„ ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุฃูˆ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุจุนุถ ุงู„ุฃุณุจุงุจ ุงู„ุฃุฎุฑู‰.
03:36
So we were careful with that.
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ู„ุฐุง ูƒู†ุง ุญุฐุฑูŠู† ุจุฎุตูˆุตู‡ุง.
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุฃุทู„ุจ ู…ู†ูƒู… ุชุญู…ู„ ุจุณุงุทุชู†ุง ุญูŠู† ุฃุตุทุญุจูƒู… ุฅู„ู‰ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู„ู‚ุทุฉ.
03:41
This is in 1960.
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ู‡ุฐุง ููŠ ุนุงู… 1960.
03:43
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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ูˆุฃู†ุง ุงู„ุขู† ุฃุธู‡ุฑ ู‡ู†ุง ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ:
03:47
two, four or six --
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ุงุซู†ูŠู† ุฃูˆ ุฃุฑุจุนุฉ ุฃูˆ ุณุชุฉ --
03:50
many babies, few babies.
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ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ุŒ ุงู„ู‚ู„ูŠู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„.
03:52
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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ูˆู‡ู†ุง ุฏุฎู„ ุงู„ูุฑุฏ ุจุงู„ุฏูˆู„ุงุฑ ุงู„ู‚ุงุจู„ ู„ู„ู…ู‚ุงุฑู†ุฉ.
03:55
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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ุงู„ุณุจุจ ููŠ ุฐู„ูƒ ู‡ูˆ ุฃู† ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆู† ุฃู†ู‡ ุนู„ูŠูƒ ุฃู† ุชุตูŠุฑ ุบู†ูŠุงู‹ ุฃูˆู„ุงู‹
03:59
before you get few babies.
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ู‚ุจู„ ุฃู† ุชุญุตู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุนุฏุฏ ุฃู‚ู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„.
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
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ู„ุฐุง ู‡ู†ุง ุฏุฎู„ ู…ู†ุฎูุถุŒ ูˆู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฏุฎู„ ู…ุฑุชูุน.
04:04
And indeed in 1960,
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ูˆููŠ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ููŠ ุณู†ุฉ 1960ุŒ
04:06
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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ูƒุงู† ุนู„ูŠูƒ ุฃู† ุชูƒูˆู† ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุงู‹ ุบู†ูŠุงู‹ ู„ูŠูƒูˆู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุนุฏุฏ ู‚ู„ูŠู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„.
04:09
The exception was Japan.
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ูˆูƒุงู†ุช ุงู„ูŠุงุจุงู† ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุฅุณุชุซู†ุงุก.
04:11
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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ูˆุชู… ุฅุนุชุจุงุฑ ุงู„ูŠุงุจุงู† ูƒุฅุณุชุซู†ุงุก ู‡ู†ุง.
04:14
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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ู…ุง ุนุฏุง ุฐู„ูƒ ูƒุงู†ุช ุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุงู„ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉ ูู‚ุท.
04:16
But there was also many Christian countries
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ูƒุงู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฃูŠุถุงู‹ ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุงู„ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉ
04:18
that had six to seven babies per woman.
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ุงู„ุชูŠ ูƒุงู† ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุณุชุฉ ุฅู„ู‰ ุณุจุนุฉ ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
04:21
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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ูˆู„ูƒู†ู‡ู… ูƒุงู†ูˆุง ููŠ ุฃู…ุฑูŠูƒุง ุงู„ู„ุงุชูŠู†ูŠุฉ ุฃูˆ ููŠ ุฃูุฑูŠู‚ูŠุง.
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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ูˆุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุงู„ุชูŠ ุชุฏูŠู† ููŠู‡ุง ุงู„ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ุจุงู„ุฅุณู„ุงู…ุŒ
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง ูƒุงู† ู„ูƒู„ู‡ุง ู…ุง ุจูŠู† ุณุชุฉ ุฅู„ู‰ ุณุจุนุฉ ุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉุŒ
04:35
irregardless of the income level.
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ุจุบุถ ุงู„ู†ุธุฑ ุนู† ู…ุณุชูˆู‰ ุงู„ุฏุฎู„.
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
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ูˆูƒู„ ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุดุฑู‚ูŠุฉ ููŠู…ุง ุนุฏุง ุงู„ูŠุงุจุงู† ูƒุงู† ู„ู‡ุง ู†ูุณ ุงู„ู…ุณุชูˆู‰.
04:42
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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ุงู„ุขู† ุฏุนูˆู†ุง ู†ุฑู‰ ู…ุง ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุญุฏุซ ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
04:44
I start the world, and here we go.
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ุฃุจุฏุฃ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…ุŒ ู‡ูŠุง ุจู†ุง.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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ุงู„ุขู† 1962-- ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒู… ุฃู† ุชุฑูˆุง ุฃู†ู‡ู… ูŠุตุจุญูˆู† ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุซุฑุงุกุŒ
04:49
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ ูŠู†ุฎูุถุŸ
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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ุงู†ุธุฑูˆุง ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุตูŠู†. ุฅู†ู‡ุง ุชู†ุฎูุถ ุจุดูƒู„ ุณุฑูŠุน ุฅู„ู‰ ุญุฏ ู…ุง.
04:54
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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ูˆูƒู„ ุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุฐุงุช ุงู„ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณู„ู…ุฉ ุจุบุถ ุงู„ู†ุธุฑ ุนู† ุงู„ุฏุฎู„ ุชู†ุฎูุถุŒ
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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ู†ูุณ ุงู„ุดูŠุก ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู„ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉ ููŠ ู†ุทุงู‚ ุงู„ุฏุฎู„ ุงู„ู…ุชูˆุณุท.
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
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ูˆุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ุฏุฎู„ ููŠ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู‚ุฑู†ุŒ
05:06
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
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ุณุชุฌุฏ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู† ู†ุตู ุงู„ุจุดุฑูŠุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ุฃุณูู„ ู‡ู†ุง.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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ูˆุจุญู„ูˆู„ ุณู†ุฉ 2010ุŒ ู†ุญู† ูุนู„ุง 80 ุจุงู„ู…ุฆุฉ ู…ู† ุงู„ุจุดุฑ
05:14
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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ุงู„ุฐูŠู† ูŠุนูŠุดูˆู† ููŠ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ู…ุน ุญูˆุงู„ูŠ ุทูู„ูŠู† ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
05:19
(Applause)
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(ุชุตููŠู‚)
05:22
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ุญุตู„ ุชุทูˆุฑ ู…ุฏู‡ุด ุฌุฏุงู‹.
05:26
(Applause)
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(ุชุตููŠู‚)
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
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ูˆู‡ุฐู‡ ุจู„ุฏุงู† ู…ู† ุงู„ูˆู„ุงูŠุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชุญุฏุฉ ู‡ู†ุงุŒ
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
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ุจุฏุฎู„ 40,000 ุฏูˆู„ุงุฑ ู„ู„ูุฑุฏ ุงู„ูˆุงุญุฏุŒ
05:33
France, Russia, Iran,
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ูุฑู†ุณุง ูˆุฑูˆุณูŠุง ูˆุฅูŠุฑุงู†ุŒ
05:36
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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ูˆุงู„ู…ูƒุณูŠูƒ ูˆุชุฑูƒูŠุง ูˆุงู„ุฌุฒุงุฆุฑุŒ
05:40
Indonesia, India
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ูˆุฅู†ุฏูˆู†ูŠุณูŠุง ูˆุงู„ู‡ู†ุฏ
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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ูˆุนู„ู‰ ุทูˆู„ ุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ ุฅู„ู‰ ุจู†ุบู„ุงุฏุด ูˆููŠุชู†ุงู…ุŒ
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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ูˆุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ู‡ุง ุฃู‚ู„ ู…ู† ุฎู…ุณุฉ ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุฆุฉ ู…ู† ุฏุฎู„ ุงู„ูุฑุฏ ููŠ ุงู„ูˆู„ุงูŠุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชุญุฏุฉ
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
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ูˆู†ูุณ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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ุฃุณุชุทูŠุน ุฃู† ุฃู‚ูˆู„ ู„ูƒู… ุฃู† ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ู…ุชุนู„ู‚ุฉ ุจุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ
05:55
is surprisingly good in all countries.
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ุฌูŠุฏุฉ ุจุดูƒู„ ู…ุฏู‡ุด ููŠ ุฌู…ูŠุน ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู†.
05:57
We get that from the census data.
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ุญุตู„ู†ุง ุนู„ู‰ ุฐู„ูƒ ู…ู† ุจูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุชุนุฏุงุฏ ุงู„ุณูƒุงู†ูŠ.
05:59
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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ุฅู†ู‡ุง ู„ูŠุณุช ุฅุญุฏู‰ ุชู„ูƒ ุงู„ุฅุญุตุงุฆูŠุงุช ุงู„ู…ุดูƒูˆูƒ ููŠู‡ุง .
06:02
So what we can conclude
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ุฅุฐุงู‹ ู…ุง ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ุง ุงุณุชู†ุชุงุฌู‡
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‡ ู„ูŠุณ ุนู„ูŠูƒ ุฃู† ุชูƒูˆู† ุบู†ูŠุงู‹ ู„ูŠูƒูˆู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุนุฏุฏ ุฃู‚ู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„.
06:06
It has happened across the world.
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ุชุฌู„ู‰ ุฐู„ูƒ ููŠ ุฌู…ูŠุน ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
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ูˆุจุนุฏ ุฐู„ูƒ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ู†ุธุฑ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃุฏูŠุงู†ุŒ
06:11
we can see that the Eastern religions,
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ู†ุง ุฃู† ู†ุฑู‰ ุฃู† ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ุงู„ุดุฑู‚ูŠุฉุŒ
06:14
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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ูˆููŠ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ู„ูŠุณุช ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ูˆู„ุง ุฏูˆู„ุฉ ูˆุงุญุฏุฉ ุจุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ู…ู† ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุฏูŠู†
06:17
that has more than three children.
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ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ู† ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ุง๏ปทุทูุงู„.
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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ุจูŠู†ู…ุง ู…ุน ุงู„ุฅุณู„ุงู… ูˆุงู„ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉ ูƒุฏูŠู† ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉุŒ
06:23
you see countries all the way.
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒู… ู…ุดุงู‡ุฏุฉ ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุนู„ู‰ ุทูˆู„ ุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚.
06:25
But there's no major difference.
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ู„ุง ูŠูˆุฌุฏ ูุงุฑู‚ ูƒุจูŠุฑ.
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
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ู„ูŠุณ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ูุฑู‚ ูƒุจูŠุฑ ุจูŠู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฃุฏูŠุงู†.
06:30
There is a difference with income.
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ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ูุฑู‚ ููŠ ุงู„ุฏุฎู„.
06:32
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ ู‡ู†ุงุŒ
06:36
they have quite low income.
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ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุฏุฎู„ ู…ู†ุฎูุถ ุฌุฏุงู‹.
06:38
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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ู…ุนุธู…ู‡ุง ููŠ ุฃูุฑูŠู‚ูŠุง ูˆุฌู†ูˆุจ ุงู„ุตุญุฑุงุก ุงู„ูƒุจุฑู‰.
06:42
But there are also countries here
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฃูŠุถุงู‹ ุจู„ุฏุงู† ู‡ู†ุง
06:44
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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ู…ุซู„ ุบูˆุงุชูŠู…ุงู„ุง ูˆู…ุซู„ ุจุงุจูˆุง ุบูŠู†ูŠุง ุงู„ุฌุฏูŠุฏุฉุŒ
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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ูˆู…ุซู„ ุงู„ูŠู…ู† ูˆุฃูุบุงู†ุณุชุงู†.
06:51
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
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ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏ ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑูˆู† ุฃู† ุฃูุบุงู†ุณุชุงู† ูˆุงู„ูƒูˆู†ุบูˆุŒ
06:55
which have suffered severe conflicts,
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ูˆุงู„ุชูŠ ุนุงู†ุช ู…ู† ุตุฑุงุนุงุช ุญุงุฏุฉุŒ
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
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ุฃู†ู‡ ู„ูŠุณ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู… ู…ุนุฏู„ ู†ู…ูˆ ุณูƒุงู† ุณุฑูŠุน.
07:01
It's the other way around.
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ูˆุงู„ุญุงุตู„ ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุนูƒุณ.
07:03
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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ุงู„ุฏูˆู„ ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุฃุนู„ู‰ ู…ุนุฏู„ุงุช ุงู„ูˆููŠุงุช ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ุงู„ูŠูˆู…
07:07
that have the fastest population growth.
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ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุฃุณุฑุน ู…ุนุฏู„ุงุช ุงู„ู†ู…ูˆ.
07:09
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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ู„ุฃู† ูˆูุงุฉ ุทูู„ ุชุนูˆุถ ุจุทูู„ ุขุฎุฑ.
07:13
These countries have six children per woman.
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุณุชุฉ ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
07:16
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู… ู…ุนุฏู„ ูˆููŠุงุช ู…ุญุฒู† ู…ู† ุทูู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุทูู„ูŠู† ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
07:20
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุจุนุฏ 30 ุนุงู…ุงู‹ ู…ู† ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ ุณูˆู ุชู†ุชู‚ู„ ุฃูุบุงู†ุณุชุงู† ู…ู† 30 ุฅู„ู‰ 60 ู…ู„ูŠูˆู† ู†ุณู…ุฉ.
07:24
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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ุงู„ูƒูˆู†ุบูˆ ุณูˆู ุชู†ุชู‚ู„ ู…ู† 60 ุฅู„ู‰ 120 ู…ู„ูŠูˆู† ู†ุณู…ุฉ.
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
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ูˆู‡ุฐุง ุญูŠุซ ู„ุฏูŠู†ุง ุฃุณุฑุน ู†ู…ูˆ ุณูƒุงู†ูŠ.
07:30
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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ูˆูŠุนุชู‚ุฏ ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑูˆู† ุฃู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ูุงุชุฑุฉุŒ ูˆู„ูƒู†ู‡ุง ู„ูŠุณุช ูƒุฐู„ูƒ.
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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ุฏุนูˆู†ูŠ ุฃู‚ุงุฑู† ุงู„ุณู†ุบุงู„ุŒ ุฏูˆู„ุฉ ุฐุงุช ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ู…ุณู„ู…ุฉุŒ
07:38
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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ู…ุน ุฏูˆู„ุฉ ุฐุงุช ุฃุบู„ุจูŠุฉ ู…ุณูŠุญูŠุฉ ูƒุบุงู†ุง.
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
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ูˆุฃุฑุฌุนู‡ู… ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ูˆุฑุงุก ู‡ู†ุง ุฅู„ู‰ ุงุณุชู‚ู„ุงู„ู‡ู…ุŒ
07:44
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
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ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ูƒุงู†ูˆุง ุฃุนู„ู‰ ู‡ู†ุง ููŠ ุจุฏุงูŠุฉ ุงู„ุณุชูŠู†ุงุช.
07:48
Just look what they have done.
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ุงู†ุธุฑูˆุง ูู‚ุท ุฅู„ู‰ ู…ุง ุญู‚ู‚ูˆู‡.
07:50
It's an amazing improvement,
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ุฅู†ู‡ ุชุญุณู† ู…ุฏู‡ุดุŒ
07:52
from seven children per woman,
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ู…ู† ุณุจุนุฉ ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉุŒ
07:54
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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ุงู†ุชู‚ู„ูˆุง ู†ุฒูˆู„ุงู‹ ุนู„ู‰ ุทูˆู„ ุงู„ุทุฑูŠู‚ ุฅู„ู‰ ู…ุง ุจูŠู† ุฃุฑุจุนุฉ ูˆุฎู…ุณุฉ.
07:57
It's a tremendous improvement.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ุชุญุณู† ู‡ุงุฆู„.
07:59
So what does it take?
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ู…ุง ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠุชุทู„ุจู‡ ุฐู„ูƒุŸ
08:00
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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ู†ุนุฑู ุฌูŠุฏุงู‹ ู…ุง ู‡ูˆ ู…ุทู„ูˆุจ ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู†.
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
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ุชุญุชุงุฌ ุฅู„ู‰ ุฅู†ุฌุงุจ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ู„ุจู‚ุงุก ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ูŠุฏ ุงู„ุญูŠุงุฉ.
08:06
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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ุฃู†ุช ููŠ ุญุงุฌุฉ ู„ู„ุฎุฑูˆุฌ ู…ู† ุงู„ูู‚ุฑ ุงู„ู…ุฏู‚ุน
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ูุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูŠุณูˆุง ุจุชู„ูƒ ุงู„ุฃู‡ู…ูŠุฉ ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู„ุนู…ู„ ููŠ ุงู„ุฃุณุฑุฉ.
08:12
You need to have access to some family planning.
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ุชุญุชุงุฌ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ูˆุตูˆู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุจุนุถ ุฎุฏู…ุงุช ุชู†ุธูŠู… ุงู„ุฃุณุฑุฉ.
08:15
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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ูˆุชุญุชุงุฌ ู„ู„ุนุงู…ู„ ุงู„ุฑุงุจุนุŒ ูˆุงู„ุฐูŠ ู‡ูˆ ุฑุจู…ุง ุงู„ุนุงู…ู„ ุงู„ุฃูƒุซุฑ ุฃู‡ู…ูŠุฉ.
08:19
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุงุณู…ุญูˆุง ู„ูŠ ุฃู† ุฃุจูŠู† ุงู„ุนุงู…ู„ ุงู„ุฑุงุจุน
08:22
by looking at Qatar.
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ุจุงู„ู†ุธุฑ ุฅู„ู‰ ู‚ุทุฑ.
08:24
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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ู‡ู†ุง ู„ุฏูŠู†ุง ู‚ุทุฑ ุงู„ูŠูˆู…ุŒ ูˆู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู„ุฏูŠู†ุง ุจู†ุบู„ุงุฏูŠุด ุงู„ูŠูˆู….
08:28
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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ุฅู† ุฑุฌุนุช ุจู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุฅู„ู‰ ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงุณุชู‚ู„ุงู„ู‡ุงุŒ
08:32
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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ูˆุงู„ุฐูŠ ู‡ูˆ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุง ู†ูุณ ุงู„ุนุงู… -- 1971 ูˆ1972 --
08:35
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
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ุงู„ุชุทูˆุฑ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุญุตู„ ู…ุฏู‡ุด ู„ู„ุบุงูŠุฉ.
08:39
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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ุงู†ุธุฑูˆุง ุฅู„ู‰ ุจู†ุบู„ุงุฏูŠุด ูˆู‚ุทุฑ.
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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ู…ุน ู…ุนุฏู„ุงุช ุฏุฎู„ ู…ุฎุชู„ูุฉุŒ ูˆู‡ูˆ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุงู‹ ู†ูุณ ุงู„ุงู†ุฎูุงุถ
08:44
in number of babies per woman.
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ููŠ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
08:46
And what is the reason in Qatar?
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ูˆู…ุง ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุณุจุจ ููŠ ู‚ุทุฑุŸ
08:48
Well I do as I always do.
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ุญุณู†ุง ุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจู…ุง ุฃู‚ูˆู… ุจู‡ ุฏุงุฆู…ุง.
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ุฐู‡ุจุช ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุณู„ุทุฉ ุงู„ุฅุญุตุงุฆูŠุฉ ู„ู‚ุทุฑุŒ ุนู„ู‰ ุตูุญุชู‡ู… ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ูˆูŠุจ --
08:53
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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ูˆู‡ูŠ ุตูุญุฉ ูˆูŠุจ ุฌูŠุฏุฉ ุฌุฏุงู‹. ุฃูˆุตูŠ ุจู‡ุง --
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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ูˆุจุญุซุช ููŠู‡ุง -- ุฃูˆู‡ ู†ุนู…ุŒ ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒู… ุฃู† ุชุญุตู„ูˆุง ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุชุนุฉ ู‡ู†ุง --
09:02
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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ูˆู‡ูŠ ู…ู‚ุฏู…ุฉ ู…ุฌุงู†ุงู‹ุŒ ูˆุฌุฏุช ุงู„ุงุชุฌุงู‡ุงุช ุงู„ุงุฌุชู…ุงุนูŠุฉ ููŠ ู‚ุทุฑ.
09:06
Very interesting. Lots to read.
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ู…ุซูŠุฑุฉ ุฌุฏุงู‹ ู„ู„ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู…. ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ูˆุงุฏ ู„ู„ุงุทู„ุงุน.
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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ููˆุฌุฏุช ุงู„ุฎุตูˆุจุฉ ุนู†ุฏ ุงู„ูˆู„ุงุฏุฉุŒ ูˆู†ุธุฑุช ุฅู„ู‰ ู…ุนุฏู„ ุงู„ุฎุตูˆุจุฉ ุงู„ุฅุฌู…ุงู„ูŠ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
09:13
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
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ู‡ุคู„ุงุก ู‡ู… ุนู„ู…ุงุก ูˆุฎุจุฑุงุก ููŠ ุงู„ุฌู‡ุงุช ุงู„ุญูƒูˆู…ูŠุฉ ููŠ ู‚ุทุฑุŒ
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
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ูˆูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆู† ุฃู† ุฃู‡ู… ุงู„ุนูˆุงู…ู„ ู‡ูŠ:
09:19
"Increased age at first marriage,
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"ุฒูŠุงุฏุฉ ุณู† ุงู„ุฒูˆุงุฌ ุงู„ุฃูˆู„ุŒ
09:21
increased educational level of Qatari woman
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ุฒูŠุงุฏุฉ ุงู„ู…ุณุชูˆู‰ ุงู„ุชุนู„ูŠู…ูŠ ู„ู„ู…ุฑุฃุฉ ุงู„ู‚ุทุฑูŠุฉ
09:24
and more women integrated in the labor force."
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ูˆุฏู…ุฌ ุงู„ู…ุฒูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ู†ุณุงุก ููŠ ุงู„ู‚ูˆุฉ ุงู„ุนุงู…ู„ุฉ ".
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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ู„ุง ุฃุณุชุทูŠุน ุฃู† ุฃุชูู‚ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ุน ุฐู„ูƒ. ุงู„ุนู„ู… ู„ุง ูŠุณุชุทูŠุน ุฃู† ูŠุชูู‚ ุฃูƒุซุฑ ู…ุน ุฐู„ูƒ.
09:31
This is a country that indeed has gone through
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ูู‡ุฐุง ุจู„ุฏ ู‚ุฏ ู…ุฑ ููŠ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ู…ู† ุฎู„ุงู„
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
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ุชุญุฏูŠุซ ู…ุซูŠุฑ ุฌุฏุงู‹ ู„ู„ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู….
09:37
So what it is, is these four:
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ู…ุง ู‡ูˆ ุนู„ูŠู‡ุŒ ู‡ูˆ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฃุฑุจุนุฉ:
09:40
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ูŠู†ุจุบูŠ ุฃู† ูŠุจู‚ูˆุง ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ูŠุฏ ุงู„ุญูŠุงุฉุŒ ู„ุง ูŠู†ุจุบูŠ ุฃู† ู†ุญุชุงุฌ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ู„ุนู…ู„ุŒ
09:43
women should get education and join the labor force
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ูˆูŠู†ุจุบูŠ ุชุนู„ูŠู… ุงู„ู†ุณุงุก ูˆุถู…ู‡ู… ุฅู„ู‰ ู‚ูˆุฉ ุงู„ุนู…ู„
09:46
and family planning should be accessible.
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ูˆุชู†ุธูŠู… ุงู„ุฃุณุฑุฉ ูŠู†ุจุบูŠ ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ู…ุชุงุญุงู‹.
09:48
Now look again at this.
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ุงู„ุขู† ู†ู†ุธุฑ ู…ุฑุฉ ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ุฅู„ู‰ ู‡ุฐุง.
09:52
The average number of children in the world
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ู…ุชูˆุณุท ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…
09:54
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
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ูŠุดุจู‡ ุงู„ุญุงุตู„ ููŠ ูƒูˆู„ูˆู…ุจูŠุง -- ุฅู†ู‡ ุงู„ูŠูˆู… 2.4.
09:57
There are countries up here which are very poor.
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ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุฏูˆู„ ุฃุนู„ู‰ ู‡ู†ุง ูู‚ูŠุฑุฉ ู„ู„ุบุงูŠุฉ.
10:00
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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ูˆู‡ู†ุง ุญูŠุซ ุงู„ุญุงุฌุฉ ุฅู„ู‰ ุชู†ุธูŠู… ุงู„ุฃุณุฑุฉ ูˆุชุญุณูŠู† ุจู‚ุงุก ุงู„ุทูู„.
10:04
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
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ูˆุฃูˆุตู‰ ุจุดุฏุฉ ุจู…ุญุงุฏุซุฉ ู…ูŠู„ูŠู†ุฏุง ุบูŠุชุณ ุงู„ุฃุฎูŠุฑุฉ ููŠ TED.
10:08
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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ูˆู‡ู†ุงุŒ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃุณูู„ุŒ ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุงู„ุนุฏูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุงู„ุจู„ุฏุงู† ุงู„ุชูŠ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ุง ุฃู‚ู„ ู…ู† ุทูู„ูŠู† ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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ู„ุฐู„ูƒ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุฃุนูˆุฏ ุงู„ุขู† ู„ุฅุนุทุงุฆูƒู… ุฌูˆุงุจ ุงู„ุงุฎุชุจุงุฑุŒ
10:17
it's two.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ุงุซู†ุงู†.
10:19
We have reached peak child.
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ู„ู‚ุฏ ูˆุตู„ู†ุง ุฅู„ู‰ ุฐุฑูˆุฉ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„.
10:21
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ู„ุง ูŠุฒุฏุงุฏ ุจุนุฏ ุฐู„ูƒ.
10:24
We are still debating peak oil,
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ู„ุง ู†ุฒุงู„ ู†ุฌุงุฏู„ ููŠ ุฐุฑูˆุฉ ุงู„ู†ูุทุŒ
10:26
but we have definitely reached peak child.
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุจุงู„ุชุฃูƒูŠุฏ ู‚ุฏ ูˆุตู„ู†ุง ุฅู„ู‰ ุฐุฑูˆุฉ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„.
10:29
And the world population will stop growing.
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ูˆุนุฏุฏ ุณูƒุงู† ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ุณูˆู ูŠุชูˆู‚ู ุนู† ุงู„ู†ู…ูˆ.
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
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ูˆู‚ุฏ ู‚ุงู„ุช "ุดุนุจุฉ ุงู„ุณูƒุงู† ุจุงู„ุฃู…ู… ุงู„ู…ุชุญุฏุฉ"
10:34
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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ุฃู†ู‡ ุณูˆู ูŠุชูˆู‚ู ุนู† ุงู„ู†ู…ูˆ ุนู†ุฏ 10 ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช.
10:36
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ู„ู…ุงุฐุง ูŠู†ู…ูˆ ุฅุฐุง ูƒุงู† ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ุง ูŠู†ู…ูˆุŸ
10:40
Well I will show you here.
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ุญุณู†ุง ุณุฃุฑูŠูƒู… ู‡ู†ุง.
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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ูˆุณูˆู ุฃุณุชุฎุฏู… ุตู†ุงุฏูŠู‚ ุงู„ุจุทุงู‚ุงุช ู‡ุฐู‡ ูˆุงู„ุชูŠ ุฌุงุกุช ููŠู‡ุง ุฏูุงุชุฑ ุงู„ู…ู„ุงุญุธุงุช ุงู„ุฎุงุตุฉ ุจูƒู….
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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ุฅู†ู‡ุง ู…ููŠุฏุฉ ุฌุฏุงู‹ ู„ู„ุฃุบุฑุงุถ ุงู„ุชุนู„ูŠู…ูŠุฉ.
10:50
Each card box is one billion people.
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ูƒู„ ุตู†ุฏูˆู‚ ุจุทุงู‚ุงุช ูŠู…ุซู„ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑ ุดุฎุต.
10:53
And there are two billion children in the world.
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ูˆู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑูŠ ุทูู„ ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู….
10:56
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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ูˆู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงู† ู…ู† ุงู„ุดุจุงุจ ุจูŠู† ุณู† 15 ูˆ 30 ุณู†ุฉ.
11:03
These are rounded numbers.
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ูˆู‡ุฐู‡ ุฃุฑู‚ุงู… ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจูŠุฉ.
11:04
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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ุซู… ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑ ูˆุงุญุฏ ุจูŠู† 30 ูˆ 45 ุนุงู…ุงู‹ุŒ
11:09
almost one between 45 and 60.
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ูˆูˆุงุญุฏ ุชู‚ุฑูŠุจุงู‹ ู…ุง ุจูŠู† 45 ูˆ 60.
11:13
And then it's my box.
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ูˆู…ู† ุซู… ุตู†ุฏูˆู‚ูŠ ุฃู†ุง.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
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ู‡ุฐุง ุฃู†ุง: ุฃูƒุจุฑ ู…ู† 60 ุณู†ุฉ.
11:17
We are here on top.
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ู†ุญู† ู‡ู†ุง ููŠ ุงู„ุฃุนู„ู‰.
11:19
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
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ูˆู‡ูƒุฐุง ูู…ุง ุณูŠุญุฏุซ ุงู„ุขู† ู‡ูˆ ู…ุง ู†ุณู…ูŠู‡ "ุงู„ุชุนุจุฆุฉ ุงู„ุงุญู„ุงู„ูŠุฉ ุงู„ูƒุจุฑู‰."
11:24
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒู… ุฃู† ุชุฑูˆุง ุฃู† ุงู„ุฃู…ุฑ ุฃุดุจู‡ ุจุซู„ุงุซุฉ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช ู…ูู‚ูˆุฏุฉ ู‡ู†ุง.
11:27
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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ู„ูŠุณุช ู…ูู‚ูˆุฏุฉ ู„ุฃู†ู‡ู… ู…ุงุชูˆุงุ› ูู‡ู… ู„ู… ูŠูˆู„ุฏูˆุง ุฃุตู„ุงู‹.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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ู„ุฃู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ ุนุฏุฏุง ุฃู‚ู„ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ุงู„ุฐูŠู† ูˆู„ุฏูˆุง ู‚ุจู„ ุนุงู… 1980ุŒ
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
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ู…ู…ุง ูƒุงู† ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู€ 30 ุงู„ู…ุงุถูŠุฉ.
11:38
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ู…ุง ุณูŠุญุฏุซ ุงู„ุขู† ุจุณูŠุท ุฌุฏุงู‹.
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
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ูƒุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณู†ุŒ ู„ู„ุฃุณู ู†ุญู†ุŒ ุณูˆู ู†ู…ูˆุช.
11:44
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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ุจู‚ูŠุชูƒู…ุŒ ุณูˆู ุชุฒุฏุงุฏูˆู† ุณู†ุงู‹ ูˆู†ุญุตู„ ุนู„ู‰ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑูŠ ุทูู„.
11:49
Then the old will die.
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ุซู… ุณูˆู ูŠู…ูˆุช ุงู„ูƒุจุงุฑ.
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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ูˆุงู„ุจู‚ูŠุฉ ุณูˆู ุชุฒุฏุงุฏ ุณู†ุงู‹ ูˆู†ุญุตู„ ุนู„ู‰ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑูŠ ุทูู„.
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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ูˆู…ุฑุฉ ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ุณูˆู ูŠู…ูˆุช ุงู„ูƒุจุงุฑ ุงู„ุณู† ูˆุณูˆู ุชุญุตู„ูˆู† ุนู„ู‰ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑูŠ ุทูู„.
12:01
(Applause)
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(ุชุตููŠู‚)
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ู‡ูŠ ุงู„ุชุนุจุฆุฉ ุงู„ุงุญู„ุงู„ูŠุฉ ุงู„ูƒุจุฑู‰
12:07
It's inevitable.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ุฃู…ุฑ ู„ุง ู…ูุฑ ู…ู†ู‡.
12:10
And can you see that this increase took place
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ูˆูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒ ุฃู† ุชุฑู‰ ุฃู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฒูŠุงุฏุฉ ู‚ุฏ ุญุตู„ุช
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
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ุฏูˆู† ุงู„ุญุตูˆู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุฃู…ุฏ ุญูŠุงุฉ ุฃุทูˆู„ ูˆุจุฏูˆู† ุฅุถุงูุฉ ุฃุทูุงู„ุŸ
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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ุงู„ุฏูŠู† ู„ุฏูŠู‡ ุชุฃุซูŠุฑ ุถุฆูŠู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุนุฏุฏ ุงู„ุฃุทูุงู„ ู„ูƒู„ ุงู…ุฑุฃุฉ.
12:22
All the religions in the world are fully capable
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ุฌู…ูŠุน ุงู„ุฏูŠุงู†ุงุช ููŠ ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ู‚ุงุฏุฑุฉ ุชู…ุงู…ุงู‹
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุญูุงุธ ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ูŠู…ู‡ุง ูˆุงู„ุชูƒูŠู ู…ุน ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุนุงู„ู… ุงู„ุฌุฏูŠุฏ.
12:31
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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ูˆุณูˆู ู†ูƒูˆู† ู…ุฌุฑุฏ 10 ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช ููŠ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…ุŒ
12:36
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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ุฅู† ุฎุฑุฌ ุฃูู‚ุฑ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู…ู† ูู‚ุฑู‡ู…ุŒ
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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ูˆุจู‚ูŠ ุฃุทูุงู„ู‡ู… ุนู„ู‰ ู‚ูŠุฏ ุงู„ุญูŠุงุฉุŒ ูˆุงุณุชุทุงุนูˆุง ุงู„ูˆุตูˆู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ุฎุฏู…ุงุช ุชู†ุธูŠู… ุงู„ุฃุณุฑุฉ.
12:43
That is needed.
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ู‡ุฐุง ุฃู…ุฑ ู†ุญุชุงุฌู‡.
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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ู„ูƒู† ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุญุชู… ุฃู† ู†ูƒูˆู† ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑูŠู† ุฅู„ู‰ ุซู„ุงุซ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช ุฃูƒุซุฑ.
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
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ูˆุจุงู„ุชุงู„ูŠ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชู†ุงู‚ุด ูˆุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชุฎุทุท
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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ู„ู„ู…ูˆุงุฑุฏ ูˆุงู„ุทุงู‚ุฉ ุงู„ู„ุงุฒู…ุฉ ู„ู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŒ
12:57
for human beings on this planet,
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ู„ู„ุจุดุฑ ุนู„ู‰ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูƒูˆูƒุจุŒ
12:59
you have to plan for 10 billion.
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ุนู„ูŠูƒ ุฃู† ุชุฎุทุท ู„ุนุดุฑุฉ ู…ู„ูŠุงุฑุงุช.
13:02
Thank you very much.
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ุดูƒุฑุงู‹ ุฌุฒูŠู„ุงู‹ ู„ูƒู….
13:04
(Applause)
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(ุชุตููŠู‚)
ุญูˆู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน

ุณูŠู‚ุฏู… ู„ูƒ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน ู…ู‚ุงุทุน ููŠุฏูŠูˆ YouTube ุงู„ู…ููŠุฏุฉ ู„ุชุนู„ู… ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ. ุณุชุฑู‰ ุฏุฑูˆุณ ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠุชู… ุชุฏุฑูŠุณู‡ุง ู…ู† ู‚ุจู„ ู…ุฏุฑุณูŠู† ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุงู„ุฃูˆู„ู‰ ู…ู† ุฌู…ูŠุน ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…. ุงู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุนุฑูˆุถุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ูƒู„ ุตูุญุฉ ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู…ู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ. ูŠุชู… ุชู…ุฑูŠุฑ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุงุช ุจุงู„ุชุฒุงู…ู† ู…ุน ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ. ุฅุฐุง ูƒุงู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุฃูŠ ุชุนู„ูŠู‚ุงุช ุฃูˆ ุทู„ุจุงุช ุŒ ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ุจู†ุง ุจุงุณุชุฎุฏุงู… ู†ู…ูˆุฐุฌ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ู‡ุฐุง.

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