Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

1,657,572 views ใƒป 2012-05-22

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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ืžืชืจื’ื: Efrat Danon ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:15
I'm going to talk about religion.
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ืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื“ืช
00:19
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื ื•ืฉื ืจื—ื‘ ื•ืขื“ื™ืŸ ืžืื•ื“
00:24
so I have to limit myself.
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ื›ืš ืฉืื ื™ ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื’ื‘ื™ืœ ืืช ืขืฆืžื™
00:26
And therefore I will limit myself
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืื ื™ ืื’ื‘ื™ืœ ืืช ืขืฆืžื™
00:28
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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ื•ืื“ื‘ืจ ืจืง ืขืœ ื”ืงืฉืจื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ ื“ืช ื•ืžื™ื ื™ื•ืช
00:33
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
00:34
This is a very serious talk.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืฉื™ื—ื” ืจืฆื™ื ื™ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
00:37
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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ื›ืš ืฉืื ื™ ืื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ื–ื•ื›ืจ ื›ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื ืคืœื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
00:41
It's when the young couple whisper,
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ื–ื” ื”ืจื’ืข ืฉื‘ื• ื”ื–ื•ื’ ื”ืฆืขื™ืจ ืœื•ื—ืฉ
00:43
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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ื”ืœื™ืœื” ืื ื• ืขื•ืžื“ื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืชื™ื ื•ืง
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
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ื”ืฉื™ื—ื” ืฉืœื™ ืชื”ื™ื” ืขืœ ื”ื”ืฉืคืขื” ืฉืœ ื“ืชื•ืช
00:52
on the number of babies per woman.
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ืขืœ ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
00:56
This is indeed important,
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ื–ื” ืื›ืŸ ื—ืฉื•ื‘
00:58
because everyone understands
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžื‘ื™ืŸ
00:59
that there is some sort of limit
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืื™ื–ื” ืฉื”ื•ื ื’ื‘ื•ืœ
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
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ืœืžืกืคืจ ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืขืœ ื”ื›ื•ื›ื‘ ื”ื–ื”
01:05
And there are some people
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ื•ื™ืฉื ื ืื ืฉื™ื
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
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ืฉืื•ืžืจื™ื ืฉืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ื’ื“ืœื” ื›ืš
01:10
three billion in 1960,
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ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื‘-1960
01:12
seven billion just last year --
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ืฉื‘ืขื” ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืจืง ื‘ืฉื ื” ืฉืขื‘ืจื”
01:15
and it will continue to grow
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ื•ื–ื” ื™ืžืฉื™ืš ืœื’ื“ื•ืœ
01:16
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื™ืฉ ื“ืชื•ืช ืฉื’ื•ืจืžื•ืช ืœื ืฉื™ื ืœืœื“ืช ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื
01:20
and it may continue like this.
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ื•ื–ื” ืื•ืœื™ ื™ืžืฉื™ืš ื›ืš
01:22
To what extent are these people right?
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ืขื“ ื›ืžื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืืœื• ืฆื•ื“ืงื™ื?
01:26
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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ื›ืฉืื ื™ ื ื•ืœื“ืชื™ ื”ื™ื• ืคื—ื•ืช ืžืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื
01:31
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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ื•ื”ื™ื•ื, ื‘ืฉื ืช ืืœืคื™ื™ื, ื™ืฉ ื›ืžืขื˜ ืฉื ื™ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“
01:35
What has happened since,
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ืžื” ืงืจื” ืžืื–
01:37
and what do the experts predict will happen
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ื•ืžื” ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืžื ื‘ืื™ื ืฉื™ืงืจื”
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
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ืขื ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื”ืžืื” ื”ื–ื•?
01:42
This is a quiz. What do you think?
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื—ื™ื“ื”. ืžื” ืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื?
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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ืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืฉื–ื” ื™ืคื—ืช ืœืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“?
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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ื”ืื ื–ื” ื™ื™ืฉืืจ ืฉื ื™ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืขื“ ืกื•ืฃ ื”ืžืื”?
01:52
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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ื”ืื ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื™ื’ื“ืœ ื‘ื›ืœ ืฉื ื” ืขื“ 15 ืฉื ื™ื
01:56
or will it continue in the same fast rate
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ืื• ืฉื–ื” ื™ืžืฉื™ืš ื‘ืื•ืชื• ืงืฆื‘
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
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ื•ื™ื”ื™ื” ืืจื‘ืขื” ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื™ืœื“ื™ื?
02:01
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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ืื ื™ ืื•ืžืจ ืœื›ื ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ื”ื”ืจืฆืื” ืฉืœื™
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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ืื‘ืœ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืžื” ื”ืงืฉืจ ืœื–ื” ื•ืœื“ืช?
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
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ื›ืฉืืชื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœืกื•ื•ื’ ื“ืช
02:12
it's more difficult than you think.
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ื–ื” ืงืฉื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืžื” ืฉืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื
02:13
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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ืืชื ื ื›ื ืกื™ื ืœื•ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื” ื•ื”ืžืคื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืฉืืชื ืžื•ืฆืื™ื ื”ื™ื ื–ื•
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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ื”ื™ื ืžื—ืœืงืช ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ืœื“ืชื•ืช ืื‘ืจื”ืžื™ื•ืช ื•ื“ืชื•ืช ืžื–ืจื—ื™ื•ืช
02:22
but that's not detailed enough.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืœื ืžืคื•ืจื˜ ืžืกืคื™ืง
02:24
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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ืื– ื”ืžืฉื›ื ื• ืœื—ืคืฉ ื‘ื•ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื” ื•ืžืฆืื ื• ืืช ื”ืžืคื” ื”ื–ื•
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื ืžื—ืœืงืช ืืช ื”ื ืฆืจื•ืช, ื”ืืกืœื ื•ื”ื‘ื•ื“ื”ื™ื–ื
02:32
into many subgroups,
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ืœื”ืจื‘ื” ืงื‘ื•ืฆื•ืช ืžืฉื ื”
02:34
which was too detailed.
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ืžื” ืฉื”ื™ื” ืžืคื•ืจื˜ ืžื“ื™
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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ืœื›ืŸ ื‘ื’ืืคืžื™ื™ื ื“ืจ ื™ืฆืจื ื• ืืช ื”ืžืคื” ืฉืœื ื•
02:39
and it looks like this.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื ืจืื™ืช ื›ืš
02:41
Each country's a bubble.
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ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ื•ืขื”
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
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ื”ื’ื•ื“ืœ ื”ื•ื ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” - ืกื™ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœื”, ื”ื•ื“ื• ื’ื“ื•ืœื”
02:48
And the color now is the majority religion.
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ื•ื”ืฆื‘ืข ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ื•ื ื”ื“ืช ื”ืฉื•ืœื˜ืช
02:52
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ื“ืช ืฉื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื—ืžื™ืฉื™ื ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ืžื”ืื ืฉื™ื
02:56
say that they belong.
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ืื•ืžืจื™ื ืฉื”ื ืžืฉืชื™ื™ื›ื™ื ืืœื™ื”
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื“ืช ืžื–ืจื—ื™ืช ื‘ื”ื•ื“ื• ื•ืกื™ืŸ ื•ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืืกื™ื™ืชื™ื•ืช ืฉื›ื ื•ืช
03:01
Islam is the majority religion
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ืืกืœื ื”ื™ื ื”ื“ืช ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ืช
03:03
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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ื›ืœ ื”ื“ืจืš ืžื”ืื•ืงื™ื™ื ื•ืก ื”ืื˜ืœื ื˜ื™, ื“ืจืš ื”ืžื–ืจื— ื”ืชื™ื›ื•ืŸ
03:07
Southern Europe and through Asia
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ื“ืจื•ื ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ื•ื“ืจืš ืืกื™ื”
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
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ื›ืœ ื”ื“ืจืš ืœืื™ื ื“ื•ื ื–ื™ื”
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
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ืฉื ืื ื• ืžื•ืฆืื™ื ืจื•ื‘ ืืกืœืžื™
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
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ื•ืจื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื“ืชื•ืช ื ื•ืฆืจื™ื•ืช ืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ื‘ืืจืฆื•ืช ืืœื•. ื”ืŸ ื›ื—ื•ืœื•ืช
03:19
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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ื•ืืœื• ื”ืŸ ืจื•ื‘ ื”ืืจืฆื•ืช ื‘ืืžืจื™ืงื” ื•ืื™ืจื•ืคื”
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ืืจืฆื•ืช ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ื•ืžืขื˜ื•ืช ื‘ืืกื™ื”
03:27
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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ื”ืœื‘ืŸ ื›ืืŸ ื”ืŸ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืกื•ื•ื’ ืื•ืชืŸ
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื“ืช ืื—ืช ืœื ืžื’ื™ืขื” ืœื—ืžื™ืฉื™ื ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื
03:32
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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ืื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืกืคืง ื‘ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืกื™ื‘ื” ืื—ืจืช
03:36
So we were careful with that.
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ืื– ื ื–ื”ืจื ื• ืขื ื–ื”
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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ืื ื ื”ื™ื• ืกื‘ืœื ื™ื™ื ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืคืฉื˜ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืื ื™ ืžืจืื” ืœื›ื ืืช ื”ืชืžื•ื ื” ื”ื–ื•.
03:41
This is in 1960.
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ื–ื” ื‘-1960
03:43
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืื ื™ ืžืจืื” ืืช ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื” ื›ืืŸ
03:47
two, four or six --
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ืฉื ื™ื™ื, ืืจื‘ืขื” ืื• ืฉื™ืฉื”
03:50
many babies, few babies.
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช, ืžืขื˜ ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช
03:52
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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ื•ื”ื ื” ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื” ืœื›ืœ ืื“ื ื‘ื“ื•ืœืจ ื™ื—ืกื™
03:55
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš ื”ื™ื ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ืื•ืžืจื™ื ืฉื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืขืฉื™ืจื™ื
03:59
before you get few babies.
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉืขื•ืฉื™ื ื›ืžื” ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
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ืื– ื”ื›ื ืกื” ื ืžื•ื›ื” ืคื”, ื”ื›ื ืกื” ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื” ืคื”
04:04
And indeed in 1960,
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ื•ื‘ืืžืช ื‘-1960
04:06
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื ื•ืฆืจื™ื ืขืฉื™ืจื™ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื›ืžื” ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช
04:09
The exception was Japan.
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ื™ื•ืฆืืช ื”ื“ื•ืคืŸ ื”ื™ืชื” ื™ืคืŸ
04:11
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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ื™ืคืŸ ืคื” ื ื—ืฉื‘ื” ืœื—ืจื™ื’ื”
04:14
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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ื—ื•ืฅ ืžืžื ื” ืืœื• ื”ื™ื• ืจืง ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื ื•ืฆืจื™ื•ืช
04:16
But there was also many Christian countries
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื• ื’ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื ื•ืฆืจื™ื•ืช
04:18
that had six to seven babies per woman.
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ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ืœื›ืœ ืื™ืฉื” ื”ื™ื• ืฉื™ืฉื” ืื• ืฉื‘ืขื” ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช
04:21
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืŸ ื”ื™ื• ื‘ืืžืจื™ืงื” ื”ืœื˜ื™ื ื™ืช ืื• ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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ื•ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ืืกืœื ื”ื™ืชื” ื”ื“ืช ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ืช
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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ื›ืžืขื˜ ื‘ื›ื•ืœืŸ ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื” ื”ื™ื• ืฉื™ืฉื” ืื• ืฉื‘ืขื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื
04:35
irregardless of the income level.
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ืœืœื ืงืฉืจ ืœืจืžืช ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื”
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
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ื•ืœื›ืœ ื”ื“ืชื•ืช ื”ืžื–ืจื—ื™ื•ืช ื—ื•ืฅ ืžื™ืคืŸ ื”ื™ืชื” ืื•ืชื” ืจืžื”
04:42
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืจืื” ืžื” ืงืจื” ื‘ืขื•ืœื
04:44
I start the world, and here we go.
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ืื ื™ ืžืชื—ื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ื•ื”ื ื” ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• 1962 - ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืฉื”ื ื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืขื˜ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืขืฉื™ืจื™ื
04:49
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืงื•ืช ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื” ืžืชืžืขื˜?
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื• ืขืœ ืกื™ืŸ. ื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื ื ื•ืคืœื™ื ื“ื™ ืžื”ืจ
04:54
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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ื•ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื‘ื”ืŸ ืืกืœื ื”ื™ื ื”ื“ืช ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ืช, ื‘ื›ืœ ืงืฉืช ืจืžืช ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช, ื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื ื ื•ืคืœื™ื
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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ื›ืžื• ืฉืงื•ืจื” ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื‘ื”ืŸ ื ืฆืจื•ืช ื”ื™ื ื”ื“ืช ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ืช ื‘ืจืžื” ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื” ื”ืžืžื•ืฆืขืช
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
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ื•ื›ืืฉืจ ืื ื—ื ื• ื ื›ื ืกื™ื ืœืžืื” ื”ื–ื•,
05:06
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
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ืืชื ืชืžืฆืื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืžื—ืฆื™ืช ื”ืื ื•ืฉื•ืช ื›ืืŸ ืœืžื˜ื”
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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ื•ื‘-2010 80 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ืžื‘ื ื™ ื”ืื“ื
05:14
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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ื—ื™ื™ื ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืขื ืžืžื•ืฆืข ืฉืœ ืฉื ื™ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœืืฉื”
05:19
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
05:22
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื“ื™ ืžืจืฉื™ืžื”
05:26
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
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ื•ืืœื• ื”ืŸ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืžืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช ื›ืืŸ
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
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ืขื ืืจื‘ืขื™ื ืืœืฃ ื“ื•ืœืจ ืœื›ืœ ืื™ืฉ
05:33
France, Russia, Iran,
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ืฆืจืคืช, ืจื•ืกื™ื”, ืื™ืจืืŸ
05:36
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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ืžืงืกื™ืงื•, ื˜ื•ืจืงื™ื”, ืืœื’'ื™ืจื™ื”
05:40
Indonesia, India
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ืื™ื ื“ื•ื ื–ื™ื”, ื”ื•ื“ื•
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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ื›ืœ ื”ื“ืจืš ืœื‘ื ื’ืœื“ืฉ ื•ื•ื™ืื˜ื ื
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื”ื ืคื—ื•ืช ืžื—ืžื™ืฉื” ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ืžื”ื”ื›ื ืกื” ื”ืžืžื•ืฆืขืช ืœืื“ื ื‘ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
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ื•ื›ืžื•ืช ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื“ื•ืžื” ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื•ืžืจ ืœื›ื ืฉื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืขืœ ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
05:55
is surprisingly good in all countries.
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ื”ื•ื ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืคืชื™ืข ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช
05:57
We get that from the census data.
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ืื ื• ืžืงื‘ืœื™ื ื–ืืช ืžืžืคืงื“ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ืŸ
05:59
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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ื–ื” ืœื ืื—ืช ืžืื•ืชืŸ ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื•ืช ืฉืžื•ื˜ืœื•ืช ื‘ืกืคืง
06:02
So what we can conclude
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ืื– ื”ืžืกืงื ื” ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ืกื™ืง
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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ื”ื™ื ืฉืืชื ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืขืฉื™ืจื™ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืขื˜ ื™ืœื“ื™ื
06:06
It has happened across the world.
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ื–ื” ืงืจื” ื‘ื›ืœ ืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
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ื•ืื– ื›ืฉืื ื• ืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื ืขืœ ื“ืชื•ืช
06:11
we can see that the Eastern religions,
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ืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ื›ื™ ื”ื“ืชื•ืช ื”ืžื–ืจื—ื™ื•ืช
06:14
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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ื‘ืืžืช ืื™ืŸ ืืฃ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืื—ืช ืฉื‘ื” ื”ื“ืช ื”ื–ื• ืฉื•ืœื˜ืช
06:17
that has more than three children.
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ืฉื‘ื” ื™ืฉ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ ืฉื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ืืกืœื ืื• ื ืฆืจื•ืช ืฉื•ืœื˜ื•ืช
06:23
you see countries all the way.
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ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืœื›ืœ ื”ื“ืจืš
06:25
But there's no major difference.
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ืื‘ืœ ืื™ืŸ ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื ื™ื›ืจ
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
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ืื™ืŸ ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื ื™ื›ืจ ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื“ืชื•ืช ื”ืืœื•
06:30
There is a difference with income.
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ื™ืฉ ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื‘ื”ื›ื ืกื”
06:32
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ืœื›ืœ ืื™ืฉื” ื™ืฉ ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื
06:36
they have quite low income.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื”ืŸ ื”ื›ื ืกื” ื ืžื•ื›ื”
06:38
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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ืจื•ื‘ืŸ ื ืžืฆืื•ืช ื‘ื—ืœืง ื”ืชืช-ืกื”ืจื™ ืฉืœ ืืคืจื™ืงื”
06:42
But there are also countries here
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉ ื’ื ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื›ืืŸ
06:44
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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ื›ืžื• ื’ื•ืื˜ืžืœื”, ื›ืžื• ืคืคื•ืื” ื ื™ื• ื’ื™ื ื™
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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ื›ืžื• ืชื™ืžืŸ ื•ืืคื’ื ื™ืกื˜ืŸ
06:51
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืฉืืคื’ื ื™ืกื˜ืŸ ื›ืืŸ ื•ืงื•ื ื’ื•
06:55
which have suffered severe conflicts,
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ืฉืกื‘ืœื• ืžืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ื™ื ืงืฉื™ื
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
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ืฉื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ืŸ ืฉืœื”ืŸ ืœื ื’ื‘ื•ื”
07:01
It's the other way around.
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ื–ื” ืœื’ืžืจื™ ื”ืคื•ืš
07:03
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื›ื™ื•ื, ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื”ืŸ ืืช ืื—ื•ื– ื”ืชืžื•ืชื” ื”ื’ื‘ื•ื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
07:07
that have the fastest population growth.
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ื”ืŸ ืืœื• ืขื ืงืฆื‘ ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ืŸ ื”ื’ื‘ื•ื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
07:09
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ื“ืจืš ืœืคืฆื•ืช ืขืœ ืžื•ืช ื™ืœื“ ื”ื™ื ื‘ืœื™ื“ืช ื™ืœื“ ื ื•ืกืฃ
07:13
These countries have six children per woman.
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ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืืœื• ื™ืฉ ืฉื™ืฉื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
07:16
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื”ืŸ ืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ืชืžื•ืชื” ืขืฆื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื™ืœื“ ืื• ืฉื ื™ื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
07:20
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืขื•ื“ 30 ืฉื ื”, ืืคื’ื ื™ืกื˜ืŸ ืชื’ื“ืœ ืž-30 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืœ-60 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ
07:24
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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ืงื•ื ื’ื• ืชื’ื“ืœ ืž-60 ืœ-120
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
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ืฉื ื™ืฉ ืืช ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ืŸ ื”ืžื”ื™ืจ
07:30
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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ื•ื”ืจื‘ื” ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืฉืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืืœื” ืขื•ืžื“ื•ืช ื‘ืžืงื•ื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ืŸ ืœื
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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ื”ืจืฉื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืฉื•ื•ืช ืืช ืกื ื’ืœ, ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืฉื‘ื” ื”ืืกืœื ืฉื•ืœื˜
07:38
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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ืขื ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื ื•ืฆืจื™ืช - ื’ืื ื”
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
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ืื ื™ ืœื•ืงื— ืื•ืชืŸ ืื—ื•ืจื” ื›ืฉื”ืŸ ื”ื™ื• ืขืฆืžืื™ื•ืช
07:44
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
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ื›ืฉื”ืŸ ื”ื™ื• ืคื” ืœืžืขืœื” ื‘ืชื—ื™ืœืช ืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืฉื™ืฉื™ื
07:48
Just look what they have done.
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ืจืง ืจืื• ืžื” ื”ืŸ ืขืฉื•
07:50
It's an amazing improvement,
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ื–ื”ื• ืฉื™ืคื•ืจ ืžื“ื”ื™ื
07:52
from seven children per woman,
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ืžืฉื‘ืขื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
07:54
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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ื”ืŸ ื™ืจื“ื• ื›ืœ ื”ื“ืจืš ืœืืจื‘ืข ืื• ื—ืžื™ืฉื” ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
07:57
It's a tremendous improvement.
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ื–ื”ื• ืฉื™ืคื•ืจ ืœื ื™ืื•ืžืŸ
07:59
So what does it take?
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ืื– ืžื” ื–ื” ืžืฆืจื™ืš?
08:00
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื”ื™ื˜ื‘ ืœืžื” ื–ืงื•ืงื•ืช ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืืœื•
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
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ืืชื” ืฆืจื™ืš ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฉืจื•ื“
08:06
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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ืืชื” ืฆืจื™ืš ืœืฆืืช ืžืขื•ื ื™ ืžื—ืคื™ืจ
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืฉื—ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืชื ืฉืœ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื ืชื”ื™ื” ื‘ืขื‘ื•ื“ืชื ื‘ืžืฉืคื—ื”
08:12
You need to have access to some family planning.
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ืืชื” ืฆืจื™ืš ืฉืชื”ื™ื” ืœืš ื’ื™ืฉื” ืœืืžืฆืขื™ ืžื ื™ืขื”
08:15
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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ื•ืืชื” ืฆืจื™ืš ืืช ื”ื’ื•ืจื ื”ืจื‘ื™ืขื™, ืฉื”ื•ื ืื•ืœื™ ื”ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
08:19
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืจืฉื• ืœื™ ืœืฉืจื˜ื˜ ืืช ื”ื’ื•ืจื ื”ืจื‘ื™ืขื™
08:22
by looking at Qatar.
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื‘ื—ื™ื ื” ืฉืœ ืงื˜ืืจ
08:24
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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ื›ืืŸ ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ืงื˜ืืจ ื”ื™ื•ื, ื•ืคื” ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ื‘ื ื’ืœื“ืฉ ื”ื™ื•ื
08:28
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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ืื ืืงื— ืืช ื”ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ืœืœื• ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืขืฆืžืื•ืช ืฉืœื”ืŸ
08:32
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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ืฉื–ื• ื›ืžืขื˜ ืื•ืชื• ื”ืฉื ื” - 1971, 1972
08:35
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื“ื™ ืžื“ื”ื™ืžื”
08:39
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื‘ื‘ื ื’ืœื“ืฉ ื•ื‘ืงื˜ืืจ
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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ืขื ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ื›ื” ืฉื•ื ื•ืช, ื–ื• ื›ืžืขื˜ ืื•ืชื” ื™ืจื™ื“ื”
08:44
in number of babies per woman.
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ืฉืœ ืžืกืคืจ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
08:46
And what is the reason in Qatar?
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ื•ืžื” ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš ื‘ืงื˜ืืจ?
08:48
Well I do as I always do.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืขืฉื™ืชื™ ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืชืžื™ื“ ืขื•ืฉื”
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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ื”ืœื›ืชื™ ืœืœืฉื›ืช ื”ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื” ืฉืœ ืงื˜ืืจ, ืœืืชืจ ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜ ืฉืœื”ื
08:53
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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ื–ื” ืืชืจ ืžืฆื•ื™ื™ืŸ, ืื ื™ ืžืžืœื™ืฅ ืขืœื™ื•
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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ื•ื—ื™ืคืฉืชื™ - ืื”, ื›ืŸ, ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืžืžืฉ ืœื™ื”ื ื•ืช ืคื”
09:02
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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ื•ืžื‘ืœื™ ืฉื ืืœืฆืชื™ ืœืฉืœื, ืžืฆืืชื™ ืืช ื”ื ื˜ื™ื•ืช ื”ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืงื˜ืืจ
09:06
Very interesting. Lots to read.
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ืžืื•ื“ ืžืขื ื™ื™ืŸ. ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื—ื•ืžืจ ืœืงืจื™ืื”
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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ืžืฆืืชื™ ืคื•ืจื™ื•ืช ื‘ืœื™ื“ื”, ื•ื”ืกืชื›ืœืชื™ ืขืœ ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืคื•ืจื™ื•ืช ื›ืœืœื™ืช ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
09:13
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
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ืืœื• ื”ื ื”ืžืฉื›ื™ืœื™ื ื•ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ื‘ืกื•ื›ื ื•ืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ืช ื‘ืงื˜ืืจ
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
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ื•ื”ื ื˜ื•ืขื ื™ื ืฉื”ื’ื•ืจืžื™ื ื”ื›ื™ ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื ื”ื
09:19
"Increased age at first marriage,
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ืขืœื™ื™ื” ื‘ื’ื™ืœ ื‘ื ื™ืฉื•ืื™ื ืจืืฉื•ื ื™ื
09:21
increased educational level of Qatari woman
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ืขืœื™ื™ื” ื‘ืจืžืช ื”ื”ืฉื›ืœื” ืฉืœ ื ืฉื™ื ืงื˜ืืจื™ื•ืช
09:24
and more women integrated in the labor force."
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ื•ื›ื ื™ืกื” ืฉืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ ื ืฉื™ื ืœืžืขื’ืœ ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ืฉืื ื™ ืžืกื›ื™ื. ื’ื ื”ืžื“ืข ืžืกื›ื™ื ืื™ืชื
09:31
This is a country that indeed has gone through
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืฉื‘ืืžืช ืขื‘ืจื”
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
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ืชื”ืœื™ืš ืžืื•ื“ ืžืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืฉืœ ืžื•ื“ืจื ื™ื–ืฆื™ื”
09:37
So what it is, is these four:
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ืื– ืžื” ืฉื™ืฉ, ื”ื ื”ืืจื‘ืขื” ื”ืืœื”
09:40
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืฉืจื•ื“, ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื•ื•ืช ื›ื•ื— ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”
09:43
women should get education and join the labor force
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ื ืฉื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื•ืช ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ื”ืฉื›ืœื” ื•ืœื”ืฆื˜ืจืฃ ืœืžืขื’ืœ ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”
09:46
and family planning should be accessible.
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ื•ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ืœืืžืฆืขื™ ืžื ื™ืขื”
09:48
Now look again at this.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื‘ื–ื” ืฉื•ื‘
09:52
The average number of children in the world
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ื”ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืžืžื•ืฆืข ืฉืœ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื
09:54
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
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ื”ื•ื ื›ืžื• ื‘ืงื•ืœื•ืžื‘ื™ื” - 2.4 ื”ื™ื•ื
09:57
There are countries up here which are very poor.
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ื™ืฉ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื›ืืŸ ืœืžืขืœื” ืฉื”ืŸ ืžืื•ื“ ืขื ื™ื•ืช
10:00
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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ื•ื”ืŸ ื–ืงื•ืงื•ืช ืœืืžืฆืขื™ ืžื ื™ืขื” ื•ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ ื”ื™ืฉืจื“ื•ืช ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœื™ืœื“ื™ื
10:04
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
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ืื ื™ ืžืื•ื“ ืžืžืœื™ืฅ ืขืœ ื”ื”ืจืฆืื” ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืฉืœ ืžืœื™ื ื“ื” ื’ื™ื™ื˜ืก ื›ืืŸ ื‘ื˜ื“
10:08
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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ื•ื›ืืŸ ืœืžื˜ื”, ื™ืฉื ืŸ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ื™ืฉ ืคื—ื•ืช ืžืฉื ื™ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื‘ืžืžื•ืฆืข ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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ืื– ืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืœืชืช ืœื›ื ืืช ื”ืชืฉื•ื‘ื” ืœื—ื™ื“ื”
10:17
it's two.
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ืฉืชื™ื™ื
10:19
We have reached peak child.
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ื”ื’ืขื ื• ืœืฉื™ื ื‘ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื
10:21
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืื™ื ื ื• ื’ื“ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืขื•ืœื
10:24
We are still debating peak oil,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืžืชื•ื•ื›ื—ื™ื ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืžื—ื™ืจ ื”ืฉื™ื ืœื ืคื˜
10:26
but we have definitely reached peak child.
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ืจื•ืจ ื”ื’ืขื ื• ืœืฉื™ื ื‘ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื
10:29
And the world population will stop growing.
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ื•ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ืชืคืกื™ืง ืœื’ื“ื•ืœ
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
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ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ื” ืœืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ืŸ ื‘ืื•"ื ืืžืจื”
10:34
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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ืฉืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ืชืคืกื™ืง ืœื’ื“ื•ืœ ื›ืฉืชื’ื™ืข ืœืขืฉืจื” ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ
10:36
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื“ื•ืข ื”ื™ื ื’ื“ืœื” ืื ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืื™ื ื• ื’ื“ืœ?
10:40
Well I will show you here.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืืจืื” ืœื›ื ื›ืืŸ
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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ืื ื™ ืืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืงื•ืคืกืื•ืช ื”ื›ืจื˜ื™ืกื™ื ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ื”ืžื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืœื›ื ื”ื’ื™ืขื•
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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ื”ืŸ ื“ื™ ื™ืขื™ืœื•ืช ืœืžื˜ืจื•ืช ืœื™ืžื•ื“ื™ื•ืช
10:50
Each card box is one billion people.
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ื›ืœ ืงื•ืคืกื” ืžืกืžืœืช ื›ืžื•ืช ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื ืฉื™ื
10:53
And there are two billion children in the world.
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ื•ื™ืฉื ื ืฉื ื™ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื
10:56
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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ื™ืฉื ื ืฉื ื™ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื’ื™ืœืื™ื 15 ื•-30
11:03
These are rounded numbers.
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ืืœื• ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืขื’ื•ืœื™ื
11:04
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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ื™ืฉื ื ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื’ื™ืœืื™ื 30 ื•-45
11:09
almost one between 45 and 60.
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ื›ืžืขื˜ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื‘ื™ืŸ 45 ืœ-60
11:13
And then it's my box.
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ื•ืื– ื™ืฉ ืืช ื”ืงื•ืคืกื ืฉืœื™
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
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ื–ื” ืื ื™ - ืžืขืœ ื’ื™ืœ 60
11:17
We are here on top.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื›ืืŸ ื‘ืงืฆื”
11:19
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
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ืื– ืžื” ืฉื™ืงืจื” ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืื ื• ืžื›ื ื™ื - ื”ื”ืชืžืœืื•ืช ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื”
11:24
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื—ืกืจื™ื ื›ืืŸ
11:27
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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ื”ื ืœื ื—ืกืจื™ื ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื ืžืชื• - ื”ื ืžืขื•ืœื ืœื ื ื•ืœื“ื•
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉืœืคื ื™ 1980, ื”ืจื‘ื” ืคื—ื•ืช ืื ืฉื™ื ื ื•ืœื“ื•
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
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ืžืืฉืจ ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืฉืœื•ืฉื™ื ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
11:38
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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ืื– ืžื” ืฉื™ืงืจื” ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ื•ื ื“ื™ ืคืฉื•ื˜
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
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ื”ื–ืงื ื™ื, ืœืฆืขืจื ื•, ืื ื—ื ื• ื ืžื•ืช
11:44
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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ื•ืืชื ืฉืชื™ืฉืืจื•, ืชื’ื“ืœื• ื•ืชื–ื“ืงื ื• ื•ืชืขืฉื• ืฉื ื™ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื™ืœื“ื™ื
11:49
Then the old will die.
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ื•ืื– ื”ื–ืงื ื™ื ื™ืžื•ืชื•
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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ื”ืฉืืจ ื™ื’ื“ืœื• ื•ื™ืขืฉื• ืฉื ื™ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื™ืœื“ื™ื
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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ื•ืื– ืฉื•ื‘ ื”ื–ืงื ื™ื ื™ืžื•ืชื• ื•ืืชื ืชืขืฉื• ืฉื ื™ ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื™ืœื“ื™ื
12:01
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ื”ืชืžืœืื•ืช ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื”
12:07
It's inevitable.
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ื–ื” ื‘ืœืชื™ ื ืžื ืข
12:10
And can you see that this increase took place
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ืจืื™ืชื ืฉื”ื’ื“ื™ืœื” ื”ื–ื• ื”ืชืจื—ืฉื”
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
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ืžื‘ืœื™ ืฉื”ื—ื™ื™ื ื”ืชืืจื›ื• ื•ืžื‘ืœื™ ืฉื”ื•ืกืคื ื• ื™ืœื“ื™ื?
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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ืื™ืŸ ื›ืžืขื˜ ืงืฉืจ ื‘ื™ืŸ ื“ืช ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืืฉื”
12:22
All the religions in the world are fully capable
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ื›ืœ ื”ื“ืชื•ืช ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื‘ื”ื—ืœื˜ ืžืกื•ื’ืœื•ืช
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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ืœืฉืžื•ืจ ืขืœ ื”ืขืจื›ื™ื ืฉืœื”ืŸ ื•ืœื”ืชืื™ื ืืช ืขืฆืžืŸ ืœืขื•ืœื ื”ื—ื“ืฉ
12:31
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ืจืง ืขืฉืจื” ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ื–ื”
12:36
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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ืื ื”ืขื ื™ื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื™ื™ืฆืื• ืžื”ืขื•ื ื™
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื”ื ื™ืฉืจื“ื•, ื”ื ื™ืงื‘ืœื• ื’ื™ืฉื” ืœืืžืฆืขื™ ืžื ื™ืขื”
12:43
That is needed.
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ื–ื” ื‘ืืžืช ื ื—ื•ืฅ
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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ืืš ื–ื” ื‘ืœืชื™ ื ืžื ืข ืฉื ื’ื“ืœ ื‘ืฉื ื™ื™ื ืื• ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื™ืฉ
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
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ื›ืš ืฉื›ืืฉืจ ืืชื ืžืชื“ื™ื™ื ื™ื ื•ืžืชื›ื ื ื™ื
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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ืืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ื•ื”ืื ืจื’ื™ื” ืฉื™ื™ื“ืจืฉื• ื‘ืขืชื™ื“
12:57
for human beings on this planet,
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ืœื‘ื ื™ ื”ืื“ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ื•ื›ื‘ ื”ื–ื”
12:59
you have to plan for 10 billion.
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ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืชื›ื ืŸ ืœืขืฉืจื” ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ
13:02
Thank you very much.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื
13:04
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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