Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Nika Kotnik Reviewer: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

I'm going to talk about religion.

Govoril bom o religiji.

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

Ampak to je široka in zelo občutljiva tema,

so I have to limit myself.

zato se moram omejiti.

And therefore I will limit myself

Tako da se bom omejil samo na

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

povezavo med religijo in seksualnostjo.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This is a very serious talk.

To je zelo resen govor.

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

Zato bom govoril o nečem, kar imam v spominu kot najlepše.

It's when the young couple whisper,

To je, ko mlad par zašepeta,

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

"Nocoj bova naredila otroka."

My talk will be about the impact of religions

Govoril bom o vplivu religij

on the number of babies per woman.

na število otrok na žensko.

This is indeed important,

To je v resnici pomembno,

because everyone understands

saj vsi razumemo

that there is some sort of limit

da obstaja nekakšna meja

on how many people we can be on this planet.

koliko ljudi je lahko na tem planetu.

And there are some people

In nekateri ljudje

who say that the world population is growing like this --

pravijo da svetovno prebivalstvo narašča takole --

three billion in 1960,

tri miljarde v letu 1960,

seven billion just last year --

sedem miljard lansko leto --

and it will continue to grow

in bo še naraščalo,

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

ker so tu religije, ki preprečujejo ženskam, da bi imele manj otrok,

and it may continue like this.

in se bo nadaljevalo tako.

To what extent are these people right?

Do katere mere imajo ti ljudje prav?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

Ko sem se rodil je bila na svetu manj kot miljarda otrok

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

in sedaj, 2000, sta tu skoraj dve miljardi.

What has happened since,

In kaj se je zgodilo od takrat,

and what do the experts predict will happen

in kaj strokovnjaki napovedujejo da se bo zgodilo

with the number of children during this century?

s številom otrok v tem stoletju?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

Tu je kviz. Kaj vi mislite?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

Mislite da se bo znižalo na eno miljardo?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

Bo ostalo enako in bosta tu dve miljardi na koncu stoletja?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

Se bo število otrok povečevalo vsako leto do naslednjih 15 let,

or will it continue in the same fast rate

ali se bo nadaljevalo z enako hitrostjo

and be four billion children up there?

in bodo tu 4 miljarde otrok?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

Povedal vam bom na koncu mojega govora.

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

Ampak sedaj, kaj ima religija s tem?

When you want to classify religion,

Ko hočete razvrstiti religije,

it's more difficult than you think.

je težje kot si mislite.

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

Greste na Wikipedijo in prvi zemljevid ki ga najdete je tale.

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

Ta deli svet na Abrahamske religije in Vzhodne religije.

but that's not detailed enough.

ampak to ni dovolj podrobno.

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

Zato smo nadaljevali in pogledali na Wikipedio in našli tale zemljevid.

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

Ampak ta deli Krščanstvo, Islam in Budizem

into many subgroups,

v preveč podskupin,

which was too detailed.

ki so preveč podrobne.

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

Zato smo pri Gapminderju naredili svoj zemljevid

and it looks like this.

in izgleda takole.

Each country's a bubble.

Vsaka država je mehurček.

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

Velikost predstavlja prebivalstvo -- velika Kitajska, velika Indija tu.

And the color now is the majority religion.

In barva pove prevladujočo religijo.

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

To je religija za katero se opredeli

say that they belong.

več kot 50% ljudi.

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

Vzhodne religije v Indiji, na Kitajskem in sosednjih azijskih državah.

Islam is the majority religion

Islam je prevladujoča religija

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

vse od Atlantskega oceana čez Srednji vzhod,

Southern Europe and through Asia

južno Evropo in skozi Azijo

all the way to Indonesia.

vse do Indonezije.

That's where we find Islamic majority.

Tu najdemo islamsko večino.

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

In krščansko večino, vidimo jo v teh državah. Modre barve so.

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

In to je večina držav v Ameriki in Evropi,

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

veliko držav v Afriki in nekaj v Aziji.

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

Bele so države ki jih ne moremo uvrstiti nikamor,

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

ker nobena religija ne dosega 50%

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

ali pa so podatki dvomljivi ali pa je kakšen drug razlog.

So we were careful with that.

Zato smo bili previdni s tem.

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

Zato nam odpustite preprostost zdaj ko vam pokažem tole.

This is in 1960.

To je leto 1960.

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

In zdaj vam pokažem število otrok na žensko tu:

two, four or six --

dva, štiri ali šest --

many babies, few babies.

malo otrok, veliko otrok.

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

In tu je dohodek na osebo v dolarjih.

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

To pa zato ker veliko ljudi pravi, da moraš najprej obogateti,

before you get few babies.

preden dobiš malo otrok.

So low income here, high income there.

Torej nizek dohodek tu, visok tu.

And indeed in 1960,

In res, leta 1960,

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

si moral biti bogat kristjan, da si imel malo otrok.

The exception was Japan.

Izjema je bila Japonska.

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

Japonska je tu obravnana kot izjema.

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

Drugače je šlo le za krščanske države.

But there was also many Christian countries

Ampak bilo je tudi veliko krščanskih držav

that had six to seven babies per woman.

ki so imele veliko otrok na žensko.

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

Ampak bile so v Latinski Ameriki ali v Afriki.

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

In države, kjer je Islam prevladujoča religija,

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

vse so imele šest do sedem otrok na žensko,

irregardless of the income level.

ne glede na dohodek.

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

In vse vzhodne religije razen Japonske prav tako.

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

Zdaj pa poglejmo kaj se je zgodilo s svetom.

I start the world, and here we go.

Zaženemo svet in gremo.

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

Zdaj je leto 1962 -- vidite, postajamo malo bogatejši,

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

ampak, število otrok na žensko, ali pada?

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

Poglejte Kitajsko. Številka hitro upada.

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

In v vseh muslimanskih državah ne glede na dohodek število otrok upada

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

tako kot v Krščanskih državah s srednjim dohodkom.

And when we enter into this century,

In ko pridemo v to stoletje,

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

boste našli več kot polovico človeštva tu.

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

In do leta 2010 80% ljudi

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

živi v državah z dvema otrokoma na žensko.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

Kar osupljiv je napredek, ki se je zgodil.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

And these are countries from United States here,

In te države iz Združenih držav tu,

with $40,000 per capita,

s 40.000$ dohodka po glavi,

France, Russia, Iran,

Francija, Rusija, Iran,

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

Mehika, Turčija, Alžirija,

Indonesia, India

Indonezija, Indija,

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

in vse do Bangladeša in Vietnama,

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

ki ima manj kot pet procentov dohodka Združenih držav

and the same amount of babies per woman.

in enako število otrok na žensko.

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

Lahko vam povem, da so podatki o številu otrok na žensko

is surprisingly good in all countries.

presenetljivo dobri v vseh državah.

We get that from the census data.

Te podatke dobimo iz popisa prebivalstva.

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

Ti statistični podatki niso dojmljivi.

So what we can conclude

Tako da lahko zaključimo,

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

da ni treba biti bogat, da imaš manj otrok.

It has happened across the world.

Zgodilo se je širom sveta.

And then when we look at religions,

In potem pogledamo religije,

we can see that the Eastern religions,

in lahko vidimo Vzhodne religije

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

in res, niti ena sama država kjer prevladujejo te religije

that has more than three children.

nima več kot treh otrok.

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

Medtem ko v državah kjer prevladujeta Islam ali Krščanstvo

you see countries all the way.

vidimo vse vrste držav.

But there's no major difference.

Ampak nobene pomembne razlike ni.

There's no major difference between these religions.

Med temi religijami ni nobene pomembne razlike.

There is a difference with income.

Tu je razlika v dohodku.

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

Države ki imajo veliko otrok na žensko tu,

they have quite low income.

imajo precej nizek dohodek.

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Večina je v podsaharski Afriki.

But there are also countries here

Ampak prav tako države tu,

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

na primer Gvatemala, Papua Nova Gvineja,

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

na primer Jemen in Afganistan.

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

Mnogi mislijo da Afganistan tu in Kongo,

which have suffered severe conflicts,

ki sta utrpela hude konflikte,

that they don't have fast population growth.

nimata hitre rasti prebivalstva.

It's the other way around.

Ravno obratno je.

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

V današnjem svetu, države, ki imajo največjo umrljivost,

that have the fastest population growth.

imajo tudi najhitrejšo rast prebivalstva.

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

Zato ker smrt enega otroka nadomesti rojstvo še enega.

These countries have six children per woman.

Te države imajo šest otrok na žensko.

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

Imajo žalostno povprečje smrti enega do dva otroka na žensko.

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

Ampak čez 30 let bo Afganistansko prebivalstvo naraslo z 30 na 60 miljonov.

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

Kongo bo zrasel s 60 na 120.

That's where we have the fast population growth.

Tu imamo hitro rast prebivalstva.

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

Mnogi mislijo, da te države stagnirajo, ampak ne.

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

Primerjajmo Senegal, pretežno muslimansko državo,

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

s pretežno krščansko državo, Ghano.

I take them backwards here to their independence,

Peljem ju nazaj do njune samostojnosti,

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

ko sta bili tu v začetku šestdesetih.

Just look what they have done.

Poglejte kaj jima je uspelo.

It's an amazing improvement,

To je izreden napredek,

from seven children per woman,

s sedem otrok na žensko,

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

so se spustili med štiri in pet.

It's a tremendous improvement.

To je ogromen napredek.

So what does it take?

Kaj je torej potrebno?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

Vsi dobro vemo kaj je potrebno v teh državah.

You need to have children to survive.

Imeti moraš otroke, da preživiš.

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

Priti moraš iz najglobje revščine,

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

da otroci niso več pomembni za delo v družini.

You need to have access to some family planning.

Imeti moraš dostop do načrtovanja družine.

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

In potrebuješ še četrti dejavnik, ki je morda najbolj pomemben.

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

Ampak naj vam orišem četrti dejavnik

by looking at Qatar.

s pogledom na Katar.

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

Tukaj vidimo Katar danes in tukaj Bangladeš danes.

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

Če peljemo ti državi nazaj v leta njune neodvisnosti

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

kar je bilo skoraj istega leta --'71, '72 --

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

prav neverjeten je napredek, ki se je zgodil.

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

Poglejte Bangladeš in Katar.

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

S tako različnim dohodkom, a skoraj enakim padcem

in number of babies per woman.

v številu otrok na žensko.

And what is the reason in Qatar?

In kaj je razlog za to v Katarju?

Well I do as I always do.

No, naredil sem to kar vedno naredim.

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

Šel sem na stran statističnega urada v Katarju --

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

Zelo dobra stran je. Priporočam ogled --

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

in sem si pogledal -- o ja, tam se lahko zelo zabavate --

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

in tam sem zastonj našel podatke o socialnih trendih v Katarju.

Very interesting. Lots to read.

Zelo zanimivo. Veliko za prebrati.

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

In našel sem podatke o rojstvih in si pogledal podatke o številu otrok na žensko.

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

To so učenjaki in strokovnjaki v vladni agenciji v Katarju,

and they say the most important factors are:

in oni pravijo, da so najpomembnejši faktorji:

"Increased age at first marriage,

"Večja starost ob prvi poroki,

increased educational level of Qatari woman

večja izobrazba Katarskh žensk

and more women integrated in the labor force."

in več zaposlenih žensk."

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

Ne bi se mogel bolj strinjati. Znanost se ne bi mogla bolj strinjati.

This is a country that indeed has gone through

To je država, ki je doživela

a very, very interesting modernization.

zelo zelo zanmiv razvoj.

So what it is, is these four:

Torej, to so ti štirje dejavniki:

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

Otroci morajo preživeti, otrok ne smemo potrebovati za delo,

women should get education and join the labor force

ženske se morajo izobraziti in biti zaposlene,

and family planning should be accessible.

in načrtovanje družine mora biti dostopno.

Now look again at this.

Poglejte spet sem.

The average number of children in the world

Povprečno število otrok v svetu

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

je kot v Kolumbiji -- 2.4.

There are countries up here which are very poor.

Tu zgoraj so države, ki so zelo revne.

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

In tu potrebujejo načrtovanje družine in večje preživetje otrok.

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

Močno vam priporočam zadnje TED predavanje Melinde Gates.

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

In tu, spodaj, je veliko držav, ki imajo manj kot dva otroka na žensko.

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

Zdaj bom šel nazaj in vam povedal odgovor na vprašanje v kvizu.

it's two.

Odgovor je 2.

We have reached peak child.

Dosegli smo vrh števila otrok.

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

Število otrok ne narašča več.

We are still debating peak oil,

O vrhu cen nafte še debatiramo,

but we have definitely reached peak child.

ampak vrh števila otrok smo že dosegli.

And the world population will stop growing.

In svetovno prebivalstvo bo nehalo naraščati.

The United Nations Population Division has said

Oddelek za prebivalstvo Združenih narodov je dejal

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

da se bo rast ustavila pri 10 miljardah.

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

Ampak zakaj narašča če ne narašča število otrok?

Well I will show you here.

Jaz vam bom pokazal tu.

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

Uporabil bom te kartonaste škatle v katerih so bili vaši zvezki.

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

Kar uporabne so za izobraževalne namene.

Each card box is one billion people.

Vsaka kartonasta škatla predstavlja eno miljardo ljudi.

And there are two billion children in the world.

In na svetu sta 2 miljardi otrok.

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

Tu sta dve miljardi mladih ljudi med 15 in 30.

These are rounded numbers.

To so zaokrožene številke.

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

Potem imamo eno miljardo med 30 in 45,

almost one between 45 and 60.

in skoraj eno med 45 in 60.

And then it's my box.

In tu je moja škatla.

This is me: 60-plus.

To sem jaz: 60 plus.

We are here on top.

Mi smo tu na vrhu.

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

Kar se bo zgodilo sedaj je nekaj čemur pravimo "velika dopolnitev."

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

Lahko vidite, da tukaj manjkajo kakšne 3 miljarde.

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

Ne manjkajo zato, ker bi umrli, nikoli se niso rodili.

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

Pred letom 1980 se je rodilo veliko manj ljudi

than there were during the last 30 years.

kot v zadnjh 30 leth.

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

Kaj se bo zgodilo zdaj je precej preprosto.

The old, sadly, we will die.

Starejši bomo, na žalost, umrli.

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

Ostali, vi, boste ostareli in imeli dve miljardi otrok.

Then the old will die.

In nato bodo stari umrli.

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

Ostali bodo ostareli in imeli dve miljardi otrok.

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

In spet bodo starejši umrl in vi boste dobil dve miljardi otrok.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

This is the great fill-up.

To je velika dopolnitev.

It's inevitable.

Neizbežna je.

And can you see that this increase took place

In ali lahko vidite da se je ta rast zgodila,

without life getting longer and without adding children?

brez da bi se življenje podaljšalo in brez da bi dodali otroke?

Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

Religija ima zelo majhen vpliv na število otrok na žensko.

All the religions in the world are fully capable

Vse religije na svetu so popolnoma sposobne

to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

ohraniti svoje vrednote in se prilagoditi temu novemu svetu.

And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

In samo 10 miljard nas bo na tem svetu,

if the poorest people get out of poverty,

če se bodo najrevnejši rešili iz revščine,

their children survive, they get access to family planning.

če bodo njihovi otroci preživeli, če bodo imeli dostop do načrtovanja družine.

That is needed.

To je potrebno.

But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

Ampak neizogibno je, da nas bo še dve ali tri miljarde več.

So when you discuss and when you plan

Torej ko razglabljate in načrtujete,

for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

o virih in energiji potrebni za prihodnost,

for human beings on this planet,

za ljudi na tem planetu,

you have to plan for 10 billion.

morate načrtovati za 10 miljard.

Thank you very much.

Najlepša hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)