Adam Ostrow: After your final status update

62,531 views ・ 2011-08-01

TED


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譯者: Sheng-Ju Hsu 審譯者: Diwen Mueller
00:15
By the end of this year,
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截止到今年年底之前,
00:17
there'll be nearly a billion people on this planet
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全世界總計將會有近十億的人口
00:20
that actively use social networking sites.
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活躍於各個社群網絡之中。
00:22
The one thing that all of them have in common
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他們擁有一個共通點
00:24
is that they're going to die.
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那就是有一天他們將會面臨死亡。
00:27
While that might be a somewhat morbid thought,
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雖然這樣的想法似乎有些病態,
00:30
I think it has some really profound implications
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但我認為這之中蘊藏了一些深遠意涵
00:32
that are worth exploring.
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值得我們去發掘。
00:34
What first got me thinking about this
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首先讓我認真去思考這件事情的
00:37
was a blog post authored earlier this year by Derek K. Miller,
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是一個叫做Derek K. Miller的作家在今年初所發布的一篇部落格文章。
00:40
who was a science and technology journalist
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Miller是一個科學和科技類的新聞工作者,
00:43
who died of cancer.
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因罹癌而離開人世,
00:45
And what Miller did was have his family and friends write a post
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而他要求他的家人和朋友在他死後
00:48
that went out shortly after he died.
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把他生前預先寫好的一篇文章發布到網路上。
00:50
Here's what he wrote in starting that out.
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以下是他所發布文章中的一段
00:52
He said, "Here it is. I'm dead,
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他說:「就在此刻,我已經死了,
00:54
and this is my last post to my blog.
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而這也是我最後發佈的一篇部落格文章。
00:56
In advance, I asked that once my body finally shut down
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我要求我的家人和朋友,
00:59
from the punishments of my cancer,
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當我的身體最終敵不過癌症的折磨而停止運作時,
01:01
then my family and friends publish this prepared message I wrote --
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將這則事先準備好的訊息發佈出去,
01:04
the first part of the process
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作為將這個活躍的網站
01:06
of turning this from an active website to an archive."
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轉變為歷史檔案的起點。」
01:09
Now, while as a journalist,
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現在,身為一名新聞工作者,
01:11
Miller's archive may have been better written
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Miller的個人歷史檔案可能比起其他多數的檔案
01:13
and more carefully curated than most,
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更好且更加謹慎的被管理和保存著。
01:15
the fact of the matter is that all of us today
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事實上,
01:17
are creating an archive
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現在我們每個人都在創造著一份檔案
01:19
that's something completely different
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這些檔案跟以往幾個世代
01:21
than anything that's been created
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任何時期創造出來的儲存方式
01:23
by any previous generation.
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都完全不同。
01:25
Consider a few stats for a moment.
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讓我們花點時間來瞭解以下幾個數據
01:27
Right now there are 48 hours of video
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就在此刻,每分鐘總計有48小時的影片
01:29
being uploaded to YouTube every single minute.
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被上傳到YouTube網站;
01:32
There are 200 million Tweets being posted every day.
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每天有兩億則推特發佈;
01:36
And the average Facebook user
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而平均每個Facebook用戶
01:39
is creating 90 pieces of content each month.
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每個月會發佈九十則訊息。
01:43
So when you think about your parents or your grandparents,
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所以想一想你的父母親或是你的祖父母,
01:46
at best they may have created
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他們可能頂多在某個角落的箱子裡
01:48
some photos or home videos,
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保存了一些照片或家庭生活影片
01:50
or a diary that lives in a box somewhere.
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或是一本日記簿。
01:53
But today we're all creating this incredibly rich digital archive
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但是如今,我們正在創造多元豐富的數位檔案庫。
01:56
that's going to live in the cloud indefinitely,
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即使在我們離開人世之後,
01:58
years after we're gone.
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這個檔案仍會被永久的保留在雲端運算之中,
02:00
And I think that's going to create some incredibly intriguing opportunities
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而我認為這將為從事科技工作者
02:03
for technologists.
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開創一些別開生面的機會。
02:05
Now to be clear, I'm a journalist and not a technologist,
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我得先表明,我是一個新聞工作者,並不是科技領域的專家,
02:07
so what I'd like to do briefly
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所以我想要呈現給各位的
02:09
is paint a picture
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是一幅
02:11
of what the present and the future are going to look like.
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描繪現在以及未來將會出現的畫面。
02:14
Now we're already seeing some services
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現在已經有一些服務
02:16
that are designed to let us decide
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他可以讓我們決定
02:18
what happens to our online profile and our social media accounts
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在我們死後,我們線上的個人檔案和社群帳號
02:21
after we die.
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能有甚麼變化。
02:23
One of them actually, fittingly enough,
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實際上,這當中有某一家服務得很稱職
02:25
found me when I checked into a deli
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它通過Foursquare網站,
02:27
at a restaurant in New York
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在我進入紐約一家餐廳的以後
02:29
on foursquare.
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立馬找到在熟食部的我
02:32
(Recording) Adam Ostrow: Hello.
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(錄音)Adam Ostrow: 哈囉!
02:34
Death: Adam?
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死神:Adam?
02:36
AO: Yeah.
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AO: 是的。
02:38
Death: Death can catch you anywhere, anytime,
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死神:死神可以隨時隨地將你抓走
02:41
even at the Organic.
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甚至是在擁有生機之處。
02:44
AO: Who is this?
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AO: 你到底是誰?
02:46
Death: Go to ifidie.net
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死神:在一切都還來得及時,
02:49
before it's too late.
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快登錄到ifidie.net
02:51
(Laughter)
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(大笑)
02:53
Adam Ostrow: Kind of creepy, right?
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有點令人毛骨悚然,對吧?
02:55
So what that service does, quite simply,
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其實該項服務所做的,非常簡單,
02:57
is let you create a message or a video
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就是讓你在死後,可以在Facebook上發布
02:59
that can be posted to Facebook after you die.
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你生前完成的訊息或影片。
03:02
Another service right now
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有另外一項
03:04
is called 1,000 Memories.
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現在叫做[千憶]的服務
03:06
And what this lets you do is create an online tribute to your loved ones,
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這項服務允許你設立一個線上空間,讓你所愛的人們
03:08
complete with photos and videos and stories
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在你死後
03:11
that they can post after you die.
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得以上傳照片、影片和故事。
03:14
But what I think comes next is far more interesting.
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但我預想未來的發展將比這些更加有趣。
03:17
Now a lot of you are probably familiar with Deb Roy
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你們大概都對Deb Roy還滿熟悉的吧,
03:20
who, back in March,
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他在三月份的時候
03:22
demonstrated how he was able to analyze more than 90,000 hours of home video.
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演示了他成功分析90,000多小時的家庭影片。
03:26
I think as machines' ability
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我認為,機器對於
03:28
to understand human language and process vast amounts of data
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人類語言的理解和處理龐大數字的能力
03:30
continues to improve,
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在持續的進步之中,
03:32
it's going to become possible
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想藉由我們正大量製造的
03:34
to analyze an entire life's worth of content --
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Tweets、照片、影片和部落格文章中
03:36
the Tweets, the photos, the videos, the blog posts --
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去解析一個生命所留下的內涵
03:39
that we're producing in such massive numbers.
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將不再是不可能的事。
03:41
And I think as that happens,
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而當這樣的情況真的發生時,
03:43
it's going to become possible for our digital personas
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我們各種數位分身將真的可能
03:46
to continue to interact in the real world long after we're gone
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在我們死後繼續和這個真實世界互動
03:49
thanks to the vastness of the amount of content we're creating
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而這得感謝那些我們正大量製造的訊息內容
03:52
and technology's ability to make sense of it all.
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以及具有將這一切變得可能的科技能力。
03:55
Now we're already starting to see some experiments here.
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現在我們要來觀察一個實驗。
03:58
One service called My Next Tweet
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有一個叫作My Next Tweet的服務
04:00
analyzes your entire Twitter stream, everything you've posted onto Twitter,
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他可藉由分析你所有的推特串,以及所有你已經發布在Twitter上的內容,
04:03
to make some predictions as to what you might say next.
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去預測你下一步可能會說些甚麼。
04:06
Well right now, as you can see,
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嗯...不過現在,就像你所看到的,
04:08
the results can be somewhat comical.
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這些結果可能有點滑稽。
04:10
You can imagine what something like this might look like
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但隨著我們的科技能力的改進,
04:12
five, 10 or 20 years from now
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你可以想像在五年、十年,
04:14
as our technical capabilities improve.
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甚至二十年之後這會變成甚麼樣子。
04:17
Taking it a step further,
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讓這一切更進一步的,
04:19
MIT's media lab is working on robots
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還有MIT的Media Lab正在研究製造
04:21
that can interact more like humans.
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可以更趨近於人類互動模式的機器人。
04:24
But what if those robots were able to interact
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但假若這些機器人與人互動的基礎
04:26
based on the unique characteristics of a specific person
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是奠基在專屬某個特定個人的的個性、
04:29
based on the hundreds of thousands of pieces of content
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以及此人終其一生所發布
04:31
that person produces in their lifetime?
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數以萬計的訊息內容而成的情況之下呢?
04:34
Finally, think back to this famous scene
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最後,我們回想一下過去一個有名的場景
04:36
from election night 2008
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時間是美國在2008年的
04:38
back in the United States,
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總統大選之夜,
04:40
where CNN beamed a live hologram
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在CNN的現場出現了嘻哈歌手
04:42
of hip hop artist will.i.am into their studio
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will.i.am的全息圖,
04:44
for an interview with Anderson Cooper.
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讓他接受Anderson Cooper的訪談。
04:47
What if we were able to use that same type of technology
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我們是否也能應用同樣的科技
04:49
to beam a representation of our loved ones into our living rooms --
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製造出一個可以投射在客廳,作為我們所愛之人象徵的全息圖,
04:53
interacting in a very lifelike way
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用他們生前所發出的訊息內容做為材料
04:55
based on all the content they created while they were alive?
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讓這個全息圖可以活生生的與我們互動呢?
04:58
I think that's going to become completely possible
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我認為當我們所使用的數據訊息量
05:01
as the amount of data we're producing
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以及能夠解讀這些訊息的科技能力
05:03
and technology's ability to understand it
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都呈指數式的擴充時,
05:05
both expand exponentially.
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這是非常有可能的。
05:08
Now in closing, I think what we all need to be thinking about
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以此作為演說的尾聲,我認為我們都應該去思考的是
05:10
is if we want that to become our reality --
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如果我們希望這種情況成真-
05:12
and if so,
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而如果他的確成真了,
05:14
what it means for a definition of life and everything that comes after it.
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這對人生的定義,以及與人生相關的種種又意味著什麼。
05:17
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝你們。
05:19
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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