The history of our world in 18 minutes | David Christian | TED

Prevodilac: Radica Stojanović Lektor: Ana Zivanovic-Nenadovic

Prvo, video.

First, a video.

Yes, it is a scrambled egg.

Da, ovo je umućeno jaje.

Ali kako ga gledate,

But as you look at it,

I hope you'll begin to feel just slightly uneasy.

nadam se da ćete početi da osećate

sasvim malu nelagodu.

Because you may notice that what's actually happening

Jer možda ćete primetiti šta se zaista dešava,

a to je da se jaje samo razumućuje.

is that the egg is unscrambling itself.

And you'll now see the yolk and the white have separated.

I sada ćete videti žumance i belance kako se razdvajaju.

And now they're going to be poured back into the egg.

I kako se vraćaju natrag u jaje.

Svi znamo, intuitivno,

And we all know in our heart of hearts

that this is not the way the universe works.

da ovo nije način na koji univerzum funkcioniše.

A scrambled egg is mush -- tasty mush -- but it's mush.

Umućeno jaje je smeša, ukusna smeša, ali ipak smeša.

An egg is a beautiful, sophisticated thing

Jaje je prelepa, prefinjena stvar

that can create even more sophisticated things,

koja može da stvara još prefinjenije stvari,

such as chickens.

kao što su kokoške.

And we know in our heart of hearts

I duboko u sebi znamo

that the universe does not travel from mush to complexity.

da univerzum ne putuje

od smeše u komplekosnost.

In fact, this gut instinct

Zapravo, ovaj instinkt

is reflected in one of the most fundamental laws of physics,

odražava jedan od najosnovnijih zakona fizike,

the second law of thermodynamics, or the law of entropy.

drugi zakon termodinamike, ili zakon entropije.

Ono što nam taj zakon govori u osnovi je

What that says basically

is that the general tendency of the universe

da je opšta tendencija univerzuma

da se kreće od uređenosti

is to move from order and structure

i strukture

to lack of order, lack of structure --

do manjka uređenosti, manjka strukture --

do smeše, zapravo.

in fact, to mush.

And that's why that video feels a bit strange.

I zbog toga ovaj video

deluje malo čudno.

And yet, look around us.

Pa ipak,

pogledajte unaokolo.

What we see around us is staggering complexity.

Ono što vidimo oko nas

jeste zapanjujuća kompleksnost.

Eric Beinhocker estimates that in New York City alone,

Erik Bajnhoker procenjuje da samo na tržištu Nju Jorka

there are some 10 billion SKUs, or distinct commodities, being traded.

postoji preko 10 milijardi različite robe kojom se trguje,

That's hundreds of times as many species as there are on Earth.

što je hiljadu puta više od vrsta

koje postoje na Zemlji.

And they're being traded by a species of almost seven billion individuals,

I njima trguje vrsta

od oko sedam milijardi pojedinaca

who are linked by trade, travel, and the Internet

koji su povezani kroz trgovinu, putovanja i Internet

into a global system of stupendous complexity.

u celovit sistem

čudesne kompleksnosti.

So here's a great puzzle:

I eto sjajne zagonetke:

U univerzumu

in a universe ruled by the second law of thermodynamics,

u kome važi drugi zakon termodinamike,

how is it possible

kako je moguće

to generate the sort of complexity I've described,

proizvesti takvu složenost kakvu sam opisao --

the sort of complexity represented by you and me

vrstu složenosti koju predstavljamo vi i ja

i kongresni centar?

and the convention center?

Pa, odgovor je izgleda

Well, the answer seems to be,

the universe can create complexity,

da univerzum može stvoriti kompleksnost,

but with great difficulty.

ali sa velikim poteškoćama.

In pockets,

U suštini,

there appear what my colleague, Fred Spier,

dešava se ono što moj kolega, Fred Spir,

calls "Goldilocks conditions" --

zove "Goldilokovi uslovi" --

not too hot, not too cold,

ni prevruće, ni prehladno;

just right for the creation of complexity.

sasvim dovoljno za stvaranje kompleksnosti.

And slightly more complex things appear.

I nešto kompleksnija stvar se dešava.

And where you have slightly more complex things,

A gde imate kompleksne stvari,

you can get slightly more complex things.

možete dobiti još složenije stvari.

I na ovaj način, kompleksnost se gradi

And in this way, complexity builds stage by stage.

stepenicu po stepenicu.

Svaka faza je magična

Each stage is magical

because it creates the impression of something utterly new

jer stvara utisak da se nešto suštinski novo

pojavljuje niotkuda u univerzumu.

appearing almost out of nowhere in the universe.

We refer in big history to these moments as threshold moments.

Mi se u velikoj istoriji odnosimo na ove momente

kao na "nivoe".

I na svakom nivou

And at each threshold, the going gets tougher.

stvari postaju teže.

The complex things get more fragile,

Kompleksne stvari postaju krhkije,

more vulnerable;

ranjivije,

the Goldilocks conditions get more stringent,

Goldilokovi uslovi postaju zahtevniji,

and it's more difficult to create complexity.

i postaje teže

stvoriti kompleksnost.

Now, we, as extremely complex creatures,

E sada, mi kao ekstremno složena bića

očajnički želimo da razumemo priču o tome

desperately need to know this story

of how the universe creates complexity despite the second law,

kako univerzum stvara kompleksnost,

uprkos drugom zakonu,

and why complexity means vulnerability and fragility.

i zašto kompleksnost

znači ranjivost

i krhkost.

And that's the story that we tell in big history.

I to je priča koju pričamo u velikoj istoriji.

But to do it, you have do something

Ali kako bi to uradili, prvo mora da se uradi nešto

that may, at first sight, seem completely impossible.

što na prvi pogled može delovati potpuno nemoguće.

Mora da se premeri čitava istorija univerzuma.

You have to survey the whole history of the universe.

So let's do it.

Pa hajde da to učinimo.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Let's begin by winding the timeline back

Počnimo tako što ćemo vratiti sat

13.7 billion years,

13.7 milijardi godina unazad

to the beginning of time.

do početka vremena.

Around us, there's nothing.

Oko nas nema ničega.

There's not even time or space.

Nema ni prostora ni vremena.

Imagine the darkest, emptiest thing you can

Zamislite najmračniju, najprazniju stvar koju možete

i sažmite je milijardu milijardi puta

and cube it a gazillion times and that's where we are.

i eto tu se nalazimo.

And then suddenly,

A onda iznenada,

bang!

tras! Pojavljuje se univerzum, čitav univerzum.

A universe appears, an entire universe.

And we've crossed our first threshold.

I prošli smo kroz prvi nivo.

The universe is tiny; it's smaller than an atom.

Univerzum je mali; manji od atoma.

It's incredibly hot.

I neverovatno je vruć.

It contains everything that's in today's universe,

Sadrži sve što je danas u univerzumu,

so you can imagine, it's busting.

tako da možete zamisliti, da se razbija,

And it's expanding at incredible speed.

i da se širi neverovatnom brzinom.

And at first, it's just a blur,

I najpre je sve vrlo mutno,

but very quickly distinct things begin to appear in that blur.

ali veoma brzo počinju da se izdvajaju stvari u toj maglini.

Within the first second,

U prvoj sekundi,

energy itself shatters into distinct forces

sama energija se razbija u različite sile,

including electromagnetism and gravity.

uključujući elektromagnetizam i gravitaciju.

Energija čini još nešto prilično čudesno

And energy does something else quite magical:

it congeals to form matter --

uobličava se u materiju --

kvarkove koji formiraju protone

quarks that will create protons

i leptone koji uključuju elektrone.

and leptons that include electrons.

And all of that happens in the first second.

I sve se to dešava u prvoj sekundi.

Now we move forward 380,000 years.

Sada idemo 380.000 godina unapred.

That's twice as long as humans have been on this planet.

To je duplo duže nego što ljudi postoje na planeti.

And now simple atoms appear of hydrogen and helium.

I tada se pojavljuje jednostavan atom

vodonika i helijuma.

Now I want to pause for a moment,

Sada bih zastao na momenat,

380,000 years after the origins of the universe,

380,000 godina nakon nastanka univerzuma,

because we actually know quite a lot about the universe at this stage.

jer znamo prilično mnogo

o ovoj fazi razvitka univerzuma.

We know above all that it was extremely simple.

Pre svega znamo da je bio jako jednostavan.

It consisted of huge clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms,

Sastojao se od ogromnih oblaka

sačinjenih od atoma vodonika i helijuma,

and they have no structure.

a oni nisu imali strukturu.

They're really a sort of cosmic mush.

Bili su vrsta kosmičke smeše.

But that's not completely true.

Ali to nije baš potpuno tačno.

Recent studies

Skorije studije

by satellites such as the WMAP satellite

urađene pomoću satelita kao što je WMAP satelit

have shown that, in fact,

pokazale su da, zapravo, postoje samo male razlike u pozadini.

there are just tiny differences in that background.

What you see here,

Ono što vidite ovde,

the blue areas are about a thousandth of a degree cooler

je da su plave zone oko hiljadu stepeni hladnije

od crvenih zona.

than the red areas.

To su male razlike,

These are tiny differences,

but it was enough for the universe to move on

ali dovoljne da univerzum nastavi

to the next stage of building complexity.

do sledeće faze kompleksnosti.

And this is how it works.

I evo kako to funkcioniše.

Gravity is more powerful where there's more stuff.

Gravitacija je moćnija

tamo gde ima više stvari.

So where you get slightly denser areas,

Tako da gde imate gušće zone,

gravitacija počinje da sažima oblake

gravity starts compacting clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms.

vodonikovih i helijumovih atoma.

Možemo zamisliti rani univerzum kako se raspada

So we can imagine the early universe breaking up into a billion clouds.

na milijarde oblaka.

And each cloud is compacted,

I svaki oblak je sabijen,

gravity gets more powerful as density increases,

gravitacija postaje moćnija kako se gustina povećava,

the temperature begins to rise at the center of each cloud,

temperatura počinje da raste u centru svakog oblaka,

a potom u svakom oblaku,

and then, at the center,

the temperature crosses the threshold temperature

temperatura prelazi graničnu temperaturu novog nivoa

of 10 million degrees,

od 10 miliona stepeni,

protons start to fuse,

protoni počinju da se spajaju,

there's a huge release of energy,

ogromna količina energije se oslobađa,

and --

i, tras!

bam!

We have our first stars.

Imamo prvu zvezdu.

From about 200 million years after the Big Bang,

Otprilike 200 miliona godina nakon Velikog praska,

stars begin to appear all through the universe,

zvezde počinju da se pojavljuju širom čitavog univerzuma,

na milijarde njih.

billions of them.

And the universe is now significantly more interesting

I univerzum je sada znatno zanimljiviji

and more complex.

i mnogo kompleksniji.

Stars will create the Goldilocks conditions

Zvezde će formirati Goldilakove uslove

za prolazak kroz još dva nova nivoa

for crossing two new thresholds.

When very large stars die,

Kada veoma velike zvezde umru,

one stvaraju temperature toliko visoke

they create temperatures so high

that protons begin to fuse in all sorts of exotic combinations,

da protoni počinju da se spajaju u sve vrste egzotičnih kombinacija,

i formiraju sve elemente periodnog sistema.

to form all the elements of the periodic table.

Ako, kao ja, nosite zlatan prsten,

If, like me, you're wearing a gold ring,

it was forged in a supernova explosion.

on je nastao u eksploziji supernove.

So now the universe is chemically more complex.

Sada je univerzum hemijski mnogo kompleksniji.

A u hemijski kompleksnijem univerzumu,

And in a chemically more complex universe,

it's possible to make more things.

moguće je mnogo više stvari.

And what starts happening is that, around young suns,

I ono što počinje da se dešava

oko mladih sunaca,

young stars,

mladih zvezda,

all these elements combine, they swirl around,

je to da se ovi elementi kombinuju, kovitlaju se,

the energy of the star stirs them around,

energija oko zvezda ih vrti,

formiraju čestice, formiraju pahuljice,

they form particles, they form snowflakes, they form little dust motes,

male čestice prašine,

koje formiraju stene, asteroide,

they form rocks, they form asteroids,

i konačno formiraju planete i mesece.

and eventually, they form planets and moons.

And that is how our solar system was formed,

Eto kako je nastao naš sunčev sistem,

four and a half billion years ago.

pre četiri i po milijarde godina.

Stenovite planete kao što je naša Zemlja

Rocky planets like our Earth are significantly more complex than stars

značajno su kompleksnije od zvezda

because they contain a much greater diversity of materials.

jer sadrže veću raznolikost materijala.

So we've crossed a fourth threshold of complexity.

I tako smo zakoračili kroz četvrti nivo kompleksnosti.

Now, the going gets tougher.

Sada stvari postaju teže.

The next stage introduces entities that are significantly more fragile,

Sledeća faza nas upoznaje sa stvarima

koje su značajno krhkije,

significantly more vulnerable,

značajno ranjivije,

but they're also much more creative

ali su i mnogo kreativnije

and much more capable of generating further complexity.

i sposobnije da stvaraju kompleksnost u budućnosti.

I'm talking, of course, about living organisms.

Govorim, naravno,

o živim organizmima.

Living organisms are created by chemistry.

Žive organizme je stvorila hemija.

We are huge packages of chemicals.

Mi smo veliki hemijski paketi.

So, chemistry is dominated by the electromagnetic force.

A hemijom upravlja elektromagnetna sila.

That operates over smaller scales than gravity,

Ona radi na nižim nivoima od gravitacije,

which explains why you and I are smaller than stars or planets.

što objašnjava činjenicu zašto smo vi i ja

manji od zvezda i planeta.

E sad, koji su idealni uslovi za hemijske procese?

Now, what are the ideal conditions for chemistry?

What are the Goldilocks conditions?

Koji su Goldilokovi uslovi?

Well, first, you need energy,

Prvo, potrebna je energija,

ali ne previše.

but not too much.

In the center of a star, there's so much energy

U središtu zvezde, postoji previše energije,

that any atoms that combine will just get busted apart again.

tako da, ako se bilo koji atomi spoje, jednostavno će sagoreti i ponovo se razdvojiti.

Ali ne ni premalo.

But not too little.

In intergalactic space,

U intergalaktičkom prostoru, toliko je malo energije

there's so little energy that atoms can't combine.

da se atomi ne mogu spajati.

What you want is just the right amount,

Ono što je potrebno je prava količina,

and planets, it turns out, are just right,

a planete, ispostavilo se, su upravo idealne,

because they're close to stars, but not too close.

jer su blizu, ali ne ni preblizu zvezda.

You also need a great diversity of chemical elements,

Takođe je potrebna i raznolikost hemijskih elemenata,

i potrebna je tečnost kao što je voda.

and you need liquids, such as water.

Zašto?

Why?

Well, in gases, atoms move past each other so fast

Pa u gasovima, atomi prolaze jedni pored drugih toliko brzo

da se ne mogu spojiti.

that they can't hitch up.

In solids,

U čvrstim stanjima,

atoms are stuck together, they can't move.

atomi ne mogu da se pomeraju, zaglavljeni su.

In liquids,

U tečnostima,

they can cruise and cuddle

oni mogu da plutaju

i da se povezuju u molekule.

and link up to form molecules.

E sad, gde se pronalaze ovakvi Goldilokovi uslovi_

Now, where do you find such Goldilocks conditions?

Well, planets are great,

Planete su sjajne,

and our early Earth was almost perfect.

i naša rana Zemlja

je bila skoro savršena.

Bila je na idealnoj udaljenosti od njene zvezde

It was just the right distance from its star

da bi razvila velike okeane otvorenih voda.

to contain huge oceans of liquid water.

And deep beneath those oceans,

I duboko ispod tih okeana

at cracks in the Earth's crust,

u pukotinama kore,

you've got heat seeping up from inside the Earth,

imali ste toplotu koja je prodirala iz središta Zemlje,

and you've got a great diversity of elements.

i imali ste veliku raznolikost elemenata.

So at those deep oceanic vents,

Tako su se na tim dubokim okeanskim ventilima,

fantastic chemistry began to happen,

počeli dešavati fantastični hemijski procesi,

and atoms combined in all sorts of exotic combinations.

i atomi su se kombinovali u sve vrste egzotičnih kombinacija.

But of course, life is more than just exotic chemistry.

Ali, naravno, život je više

od egzotičnih hemijskih procesa.

Kako se stabilizuju

How do you stabilize those huge molecules

ti ogromni molekuli

that seem to be viable?

koji deluju kao sposobni za život?

Well, it's here that life introduces an entirely new trick.

Tu nam život predstavlja

jedan potpuno novi trik.

You don't stabilize the individual;

Ne stabilizuje se pojedinac;

you stabilize the template,

stabilizuje se šablon,

the thing that carries information,

deo koji nosi podatke,

a šablon ima mogućnost ponavljanja.

and you allow the template to copy itself.

A DNK je, naravno,

And DNA, of course, is the beautiful molecule

prelep molekul

that contains that information.

koji sadrži te podatke.

You'll be familiar with the double helix of DNA.

Bićete upoznati sa dvostrukim lancem DNK.

Each rung contains information.

Svaka prečka sadrži informacije.

Tako, DNK sadrži podatke o tome

So, DNA contains information about how to make living organisms.

kako se stvaraju živi organizmi.

I takođe kopira samu sebe.

And DNA also copies itself.

Stvara sopstvene kopije

So, it copies itself

and scatters the templates through the ocean.

i širi šablone okeanom.

Tako se informacije šire.

So the information spreads.

Primetili ste da je informacija postala deo naše priče.

Notice that information has become part of our story.

Pa ipak, prava lepota DNK molekula

The real beauty of DNA though is in its imperfections.

leži u njegovoj nesavršenosti.

As it copies itself, once in every billion rungs,

Kako stvara svoje kopije,

jednom na svakih milijardu prečki,

there tends to be an error.

dođe do greške.

And what that means is that DNA is, in effect, learning.

I to znači

da DNK, zapravo, uči.

It's accumulating new ways of making living organisms

Prikuplja nove načine stvaranja živih organizama

jer neke od tih grešaka funkcionišu.

because some of those errors work.

Znači DNK uči

So DNA's learning

and it's building greater diversity and greater complexity.

i stvara veću raznolikost i veću kompleksnost.

And we can see this happening over the last four billion years.

I vidimo da se ovo dešava proteklih četiri milijarde godina.

For most of that time of life on Earth,

Većinu tog vremena život na Zemlji

su činili relativno jednostavni organizmi --

living organisms have been relatively simple --

jednoćelijski organizmi.

single cells.

But they had great diversity, and, inside, great complexity.

Ali oni su bili jako raznovrsni,

i jako složene unutrašnjosti.

Then from about 600 to 800 million years ago,

Potom, pre oko 600 do 800 miliona godina,

multi-celled organisms appear.

pojavili su se višećelijski organizmi.

You get fungi, you get fish,

Gljive, ribe,

došle su biljke,

you get plants,

you get amphibia, you get reptiles,

potom vodozemci, zatim gmizavci,

and then, of course, you get the dinosaurs.

i naravno, dinosaurusi.

And occasionally, there are disasters.

I povremeno, dešavale su se katastrofe.

Sixty-five million years ago,

Pre 65 miliona godina,

an asteroid landed on Earth

asteroid je udario u Zemlju

near the Yucatan Peninsula,

blizu poluostrva Jukatan,

creating conditions equivalent to those of a nuclear war,

stvarajući uslove identične onima u nuklearnom ratu,

and the dinosaurs were wiped out.

i dinosaurusi su bili zbrisani.

Užasne vesti za dinosauruse.

Terrible news for the dinosaurs,

but great news for our mammalian ancestors,

Ali sjajne za naše pretke sisare

koji su procvetali

who flourished

in the niches left empty by the dinosaurs.

u staništima koja su ostala pusta.

And we human beings are part of that creative evolutionary pulse

A ljudska bića

su deo kreativnog evolutivnog procesa

koji je započeo pre 65 miliona godina

that began 65 million years ago

with the landing of an asteroid.

sa udarom asteroida.

Humans appeared about 200,000 years ago.

Ljudi su se pojavili pre oko 200,000 godina.

And I believe we count as a threshold in this great story.

I verujem da se računamo

kao sledeći nivo u ovoj priči.

Let me explain why.

Dozvolite da objasnim zašto.

We've seen that DNA learns in a sense,

Videli smo da DNK uči

it accumulates information.

sakupljajući podatke.

But it is so slow.

Ali proces je jako spor.

DNK skladišti podatke

DNA accumulates information through random errors,

putem nasumičnih grešaka

some of which just happen to work.

od kojih se samo za neke ispostavi da funkcionišu.

But DNA had actually generated a faster way of learning:

Ali DNK je razvio brži način učenja;

stvorio je organizme sa mozgovima,

it had produced organisms with brains,

and those organisms can learn in real time.

i ti organizmi mogu učiti u stvarnom vremenu.

Oni prikupljaju informacije, oni uče.

They accumulate information, they learn.

The sad thing is, when they die,

Tužna stvar je to što

kad umru, informacije umiru sa njima.

the information dies with them.

Now what makes humans different is human language.

Ono što ljude čini drugačijima

je ljudski jezik.

We are blessed with a language, a system of communication,

Blagosloveni smo jezikom, sistemom komunikacije,

toliko moćnim i toliko preciznim

so powerful and so precise

that we can share what we've learned with such precision

da možemo da delimo ono što smo naučili sa tolikom tačnošću

da se to može sakupljati u kolektivno pamćenje.

that it can accumulate in the collective memory.

A to znači

And that means

it can outlast the individuals who learned that information,

da može da nadživi pojedince koji su naučili taj podatak

i može se sakupljati iz generacije u generaciju.

and it can accumulate from generation to generation.

And that's why, as a species, we're so creative and so powerful,

I to je razlog zbog kog smo, kao vrsta, toliko kreativni

i toliko moćni

and that's why we have a history.

i zbog toga imamo istoriju.

Izgleda da smo jedina vrsta tokom ove četiri milijarde godina

We seem to be the only species in four billion years

koja ima ovaj dar.

to have this gift.

Ja zovem ovu sposobnost

I call this ability collective learning.

kolektivnim učenjem.

It's what makes us different.

To je ono što nas čini drugačijim.

We can see it at work in the earliest stages of human history.

Možemo videti to na poslu

u najranijim periodima ljudske istorije.

We evolved as a species in the savanna lands of Africa,

Evoluirali smo kao vrsta

u savanama Afrike,

but then you see humans migrating into new environments,

ali smo onda kao vrsta migrirali u nova okuženja --

into desert lands, into jungles,

u pustinje, džungle,

into the Ice Age tundra of Siberia --

u ledene tundre Sibira --

teška, teška okruženja --

tough, tough environment --

into the Americas, into Australasia.

u Ameriku, Australaziju.

Svaka migracija razvijala je učenje --

Each migration involved learning --

učenje novih načina korišćenja sredine,

learning new ways of exploiting the environment,

new ways of dealing with their surroundings.

novih načina odnosa sa sredinom.

Then 10,000 years ago,

Potom, pre 10,000 godina,

exploiting a sudden change in global climate

koristeći nagle globalne klimatske promene

sa krajem poslednjeg ledenog doba,

with the end of the last ice age,

ljudi su naučili da se bave agrikulturom.

humans learned to farm.

Farming was an energy bonanza.

Agrikultura je bila energetsko bogatstvo.

Koristeći tu energiju,

And exploiting that energy, human populations multiplied.

ljudska populacija se uvećavala.

Human societies got larger, denser, more interconnected.

Ljudska društva su postajala veća, gušće naseljena,

više povezana.

I otprilike pre 500 godina,

And then from about 500 years ago,

humans began to link up globally

ljudi su počeli da se globalno povezuju

through shipping, through trains,

preko brodova, vozova,

through telegraph, through the Internet,

preko telegrafa, interneta,

until now we seem to form a single global brain

do sada kada možemo videti kako se stvara

jedinstven globalni mozak

od skoro sedam milijardi pojedinaca.

of almost seven billion individuals.

I taj mozak uči ogromnom brzinom.

And that brain is learning at warp speed.

And in the last 200 years, something else has happened.

I u poslednjih 200 godina, još nešto se desilo:

naišli smo na još jedno energetsko bogatstvo

We've stumbled on another energy bonanza

fosilna goriva.

in fossil fuels.

Fosilna goriva i kolektivno učenje zajedno

So fossil fuels and collective learning together

explain the staggering complexity we see around us.

objašnjavaju zapanjujuću kompleksnost

koja nas okružuje.

So --

I tako, eto nas ovde

Here we are,

natrag u kongresni centar.

back at the convention center.

We've been on a journey, a return journey, of 13.7 billion years.

Bili smo na putovanju, putovanju u prošlost,

unazad 13.7 milijardi godina.

I hope you agree this is a powerful story.

Nadam se da ćete se složiti da je ovo jedna moćna priča.

And it's a story in which humans play an astonishing and creative role.

I to je priča u kojoj ljudi

igraju zapanjujuću i kreativnu ulogu.

But it also contains warnings.

Ali ona sadrži i upozorenja.

Collective learning is a very, very powerful force,

Kolektivno učenje je vrlo, vrlo moćna sila,

and it's not clear that we humans are in charge of it.

I nije jasno

da je mi, ljudi, u potpunosti kontrolišemo.

Sećam se vrlo živo da sam kao dete odrastao u Engleskoj,

I remember very vividly as a child growing up in England,

za vreme Kubanske raketne krize.

living through the Cuban Missile Crisis.

For a few days, the entire biosphere

U roku od nekoliko dana,

čitava biosfera

seemed to be on the verge of destruction.

delovala je kao da je na ivici uništenja.

And the same weapons are still here,

A isto oružje i dalje je tu,

and they are still armed.

oni su i dalje naoružani.

I ako uspemo da zaobiđemo tu zamku,

If we avoid that trap, others are waiting for us.

druge i dalje čekaju na nas.

We're burning fossil fuels at such a rate

Sagorevamo fosilna goriva u tolikoj količini

that we seem to be undermining the Goldilocks conditions

da izgleda da podrivamo Goldilokove uslove

that made it possible for human civilizations

koji omogućavaju ljudskoj civilizaciji

to flourish over the last 10,000 years.

da cveta preko 10,000 godina.

So what big history can do

Ono šta velika istorija može da uradi

is show us the nature of our complexity and fragility

je da nam pokaže prirodu naše kompleksnosti i ranjivosti

i opasnosti sa kojima se suočavamo,

and the dangers that face us,

ali takođe nam može pokazati

but it can also show us our power with collective learning.

moć koju ima kolektivno učenje.

And now, finally --

I sada, najzad,

this is what I want.

ono što ja želim.

I want my grandson, Daniel,

Ja želim da moj unuk Danijel

and his friends and his generation,

i njegovi prijatelji i njegova generacija,

u čitavom svetu,

throughout the world,

znaju priču velike istorije,

to know the story of big history,

and to know it so well

i da je znaju toliko dobro

da razumeju

that they understand both the challenges that face us

i izazove sa kojima se suočavamo,

and the opportunities that face us.

ali i mogućnosti koje su pred nama.

And that's why a group of us

I zato grupa nas

are building a free, online syllabus

gradi besplatan nastavni program na mreži

o velikoj istoriji

in big history

for high-school students throughout the world.

za srednjoškolce u čitavom svetu.

Verujemo da će velika istorija

We believe that big history

will be a vital intellectual tool for them,

biti osnovno intelektualno sredstvo za njih,

as Daniel and his generation

kako se Danijel i njegova generacija

face the huge challenges

budu suočavali sa velikim izazovima,

and also the huge opportunities

a takođe i sa velikim mogućnostima

ahead of them at this threshold moment

koje su pred njima u ovom novom trenutku

u istoriji ove prelepe planete.

in the history of our beautiful planet.

I thank you for your attention.

Zahvaljujem vam se na pažnji.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)