The history of our world in 18 minutes | David Christian | TED

譯者: K. C. Peng 審譯者: zhang haohan

首先, 一則錄影

First, a video.

Yes, it is a scrambled egg.

是的, 這是關於打蛋

但當你注視它

But as you look at it,

I hope you'll begin to feel just slightly uneasy.

我希望你們會開始

感到一絲絲的不自在

Because you may notice that what's actually happening

因為你會注意到實際上發生的是

蛋在重新回到有序的狀態

is that the egg is unscrambling itself.

And you'll now see the yolk and the white have separated.

看到蛋白蛋黃分離

And now they're going to be poured back into the egg.

接著是灌回到蛋殼之中

我們非常清楚

And we all know in our heart of hearts

that this is not the way the universe works.

宇宙不會是這樣運行的

A scrambled egg is mush -- tasty mush -- but it's mush.

打散的蛋 是濃稠的

An egg is a beautiful, sophisticated thing

蛋是美麗的 是複雜的

that can create even more sophisticated things,

也能產生更複雜的

such as chickens.

像是小雞

And we know in our heart of hearts

我們也非常明白

that the universe does not travel from mush to complexity.

宇宙不是從稠狀混亂

到複雜的運行

In fact, this gut instinct

事實上, 本能直覺

is reflected in one of the most fundamental laws of physics,

是反映了一些基本物理定律

the second law of thermodynamics, or the law of entropy.

熱力學的第二定律或熵變定理

基本上是說

What that says basically

is that the general tendency of the universe

宇宙的一般通則

是從較有規則

is to move from order and structure

與結構的狀態

to lack of order, lack of structure --

演變成缺乏規律與結構的方向

也就是向 濃稠狀混亂

in fact, to mush.

And that's why that video feels a bit strange.

那也就是剛剛錄影片段

看起來奇怪的地方

And yet, look around us.

同樣地

看看我們的四周

What we see around us is staggering complexity.

到處所見

都是驚人的複雜

Eric Beinhocker estimates that in New York City alone,

Eric Beinhocker 估計光紐約市

there are some 10 billion SKUs, or distinct commodities, being traded.

就有近100億項物品在進行交易

That's hundreds of times as many species as there are on Earth.

是數百倍地球所有生物

的實際數量

And they're being traded by a species of almost seven billion individuals,

而這些交易只是由一種近

70億數量的生物物種

who are linked by trade, travel, and the Internet

被交易 旅行 與 網路 所串聯

into a global system of stupendous complexity.

成一全球系統

的驚人複雜性

So here's a great puzzle:

這就是個偉大的迷惑:

宇宙中

in a universe ruled by the second law of thermodynamics,

由熱力學的第二定律所主宰

how is it possible

又是怎麼可能

to generate the sort of complexity I've described,

產生剛剛所描述的複雜

the sort of complexity represented by you and me

由你我所代表的複雜

以及這會議中心的一切呢?

and the convention center?

答案似乎是

Well, the answer seems to be,

the universe can create complexity,

宇宙能創造出複雜性

but with great difficulty.

但帶著些困難度

In pockets,

口袋裡

there appear what my colleague, Fred Spier,

有著我的同事, Fred Spier,

calls "Goldilocks conditions" --

所稱的 Goldilocks (適宜)條件

not too hot, not too cold,

既不過熱 也不過冷

just right for the creation of complexity.

條件剛剛好 適宜創造出複雜性

And slightly more complex things appear.

更約略複雜的事就發生了

And where you have slightly more complex things,

有了複雜的發生

you can get slightly more complex things.

才能有再約略複雜的事接著發生

就這樣 複雜性一步一步

And in this way, complexity builds stage by stage.

建構起來

每一步都是神奇的

Each stage is magical

because it creates the impression of something utterly new

因為一切都是創建新奇的事物

一切都是無中生有

appearing almost out of nowhere in the universe.

We refer in big history to these moments as threshold moments.

在大歷史中 我們稱這些階段為

閥值時段

每一個閥值

And at each threshold, the going gets tougher.

是愈來愈難

The complex things get more fragile,

複雜的事是 更脆弱

more vulnerable;

更易破碎

the Goldilocks conditions get more stringent,

Goldilocks (適宜)條件是更嚴峻

and it's more difficult to create complexity.

更困難

創建下一個複雜性

Now, we, as extremely complex creatures,

現在呢, 身為極度複雜物種

極度需要知道這個關於

desperately need to know this story

of how the universe creates complexity despite the second law,

宇宙變得複雜的故事

除了是第二定律

and why complexity means vulnerability and fragility.

以及為何複雜性

意味著脆弱性

與不穩定

And that's the story that we tell in big history.

這些就是我們想解的大歷史

But to do it, you have do something

為了達成它 我們必須先做些其他事

that may, at first sight, seem completely impossible.

這事乍看之下是完全不可能的

就是你得盤查整個宇宙的歷史

You have to survey the whole history of the universe.

So let's do it.

所以 進行吧!

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Let's begin by winding the timeline back

讓我們把時間往回撥

13.7 billion years,

到137億年前

to the beginning of time.

也就是時間的開始

Around us, there's nothing.

四周是什麼也沒有

There's not even time or space.

根本沒有時間與空間

Imagine the darkest, emptiest thing you can

先想像能想像的最黑暗與空無的狀況

再更加無數倍的狀況

and cube it a gazillion times and that's where we are.

那才是所處的狀態

And then suddenly,

突然間

bang!

砰! 一個宇宙出現 一個完整的宇宙

A universe appears, an entire universe.

And we've crossed our first threshold.

我們第一次越過閥值

The universe is tiny; it's smaller than an atom.

那個宇宙是非常小 比一個原子還小

It's incredibly hot.

卻是極度的高溫高能量

It contains everything that's in today's universe,

它包含今日所有存在宇宙的東西

so you can imagine, it's busting.

所以你可以想像 那是非常爆滿

And it's expanding at incredible speed.

它開始以極快的速度膨脹

And at first, it's just a blur,

一開始只是模糊渾沌

but very quickly distinct things begin to appear in that blur.

但是渾沌中一些明晰的物質出現

Within the first second,

就在第一秒內

energy itself shatters into distinct forces

能量自己分裂出不同的作用力

including electromagnetism and gravity.

包括電磁力與重力

能量開始做些神奇的事

And energy does something else quite magical:

it congeals to form matter --

它凝結成物質

有夸克就是後來組成質子等

quarks that will create protons

有輕子就是含電子等

and leptons that include electrons.

And all of that happens in the first second.

這些都發生在第一秒內

Now we move forward 380,000 years.

再往前撥快38萬年

That's twice as long as humans have been on this planet.

是人類出現於地球上的兩倍長的時間

And now simple atoms appear of hydrogen and helium.

現在 簡單的原子出現了

氫與氦

Now I want to pause for a moment,

讓我暫停一下下

380,000 years after the origins of the universe,

宇宙開始後的38萬年

because we actually know quite a lot about the universe at this stage.

就目前為止我們

對這段宇宙歷史是知道相當多的

We know above all that it was extremely simple.

我們也知道一切都是相當簡單的物理

It consisted of huge clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms,

有著龐大雲霧般的

氫與氦原子

and they have no structure.

還不成結構狀態

They're really a sort of cosmic mush.

它們真的只是一種宇宙渾沌

But that's not completely true.

又不完全是

Recent studies

根據最近研究

by satellites such as the WMAP satellite

WMAP衛星的觀測

have shown that, in fact,

顯示背景輻射 有少許的不同

there are just tiny differences in that background.

What you see here,

就如此所示

the blue areas are about a thousandth of a degree cooler

藍色區域有著相差千分之一度的冷

相較於紅色區域

than the red areas.

只有著些許不同

These are tiny differences,

but it was enough for the universe to move on

卻足夠讓宇宙演化

to the next stage of building complexity.

進入下一階段的複雜度

And this is how it works.

就是這麼的進展

Gravity is more powerful where there's more stuff.

重力當有更多物質聚集

作用更強

So where you get slightly denser areas,

只要有密度分配不均的情況

重力就開始作用

gravity starts compacting clouds of hydrogen and helium atoms.

拉近 氫和氦原子團

所以可以想像 初期的宇宙 開始分出

So we can imagine the early universe breaking up into a billion clouds.

無數的 小雲團

And each cloud is compacted,

每一個雲團都是緊實的

gravity gets more powerful as density increases,

而重力又隨密度增加而增加作用

the temperature begins to rise at the center of each cloud,

雲團核心處的溫度開始升高

然後在雲團中的核心處

and then, at the center,

the temperature crosses the threshold temperature

溫度越過了臨界溫度

of 10 million degrees,

約為1000萬度

protons start to fuse,

質子開始融合

there's a huge release of energy,

也釋放出巨大能量

and --

碰!

bam!

We have our first stars.

有了第一個恆星了

From about 200 million years after the Big Bang,

約當自宇宙開始後的2億年

stars begin to appear all through the universe,

恆星開始出現在宇宙四處

幾十億的星星

billions of them.

And the universe is now significantly more interesting

宇宙開始有趣多了

and more complex.

也更複雜

Stars will create the Goldilocks conditions

恆星會產生最適宜狀態

再越過兩個門階

for crossing two new thresholds.

When very large stars die,

當大型恆星死亡

會是極高溫狀態

they create temperatures so high

that protons begin to fuse in all sorts of exotic combinations,

質子開始結合成各種奇特的組合

也建構出週期表的所有元素

to form all the elements of the periodic table.

如果 你也像我帶著一只金戒指

If, like me, you're wearing a gold ring,

it was forged in a supernova explosion.

它被超新星爆炸所偽造

So now the universe is chemically more complex.

所以 現在的宇宙就化學的觀點是更複雜的

就化學上複雜的宇宙

And in a chemically more complex universe,

it's possible to make more things.

具備製造更多事物的條件

And what starts happening is that, around young suns,

接著發生的是

在一些年輕的恆星中

young stars,

年輕的星球

all these elements combine, they swirl around,

所有元素結合 環旋

the energy of the star stirs them around,

星球的能量 擾動它們

形成粒子 形成雪片

they form particles, they form snowflakes, they form little dust motes,

形成小小的沙塵

形成岩石 形成小行星

they form rocks, they form asteroids,

最後形成行星與衛星

and eventually, they form planets and moons.

And that is how our solar system was formed,

這也就是我們太陽系統的形成

four and a half billion years ago.

約是45億年前

岩石建構的行星 如地球

Rocky planets like our Earth are significantly more complex than stars

會比其他星球 更複雜

because they contain a much greater diversity of materials.

因為有著更多元的的物質

So we've crossed a fourth threshold of complexity.

我們也就越過複雜度 第四階的門檻

Now, the going gets tougher.

愈來愈困難了

The next stage introduces entities that are significantly more fragile,

下個階段的複雜 是個體

更脆弱

significantly more vulnerable,

更容易受傷

but they're also much more creative

卻也更有創造性

and much more capable of generating further complexity.

更能產生更多的複雜度

I'm talking, of course, about living organisms.

這裡說的 當然就是

有生命的實體

Living organisms are created by chemistry.

生物體都是由化學變化產生

We are huge packages of chemicals.

我們就是一大包的化學物集合體

So, chemistry is dominated by the electromagnetic force.

而化學主要是靠電磁作用力

That operates over smaller scales than gravity,

作用距離比重力作用的小很多

which explains why you and I are smaller than stars or planets.

也解釋了為何你和我

比星球是小很多很多

又是怎樣的理想化學狀態呢?

Now, what are the ideal conditions for chemistry?

What are the Goldilocks conditions?

也就是所謂的最適條件?

Well, first, you need energy,

首先, 需要能源

但又不能過多

but not too much.

In the center of a star, there's so much energy

星球的中心能量是高的

that any atoms that combine will just get busted apart again.

任何結合的原子 又都會再爆開

又不能太少的能量

But not too little.

In intergalactic space,

星河之間的太空 就是太少的能量

there's so little energy that atoms can't combine.

原子無法結合一起

What you want is just the right amount,

所需的就是適當的能量

and planets, it turns out, are just right,

行星 就剛剛好有著適當能量

because they're close to stars, but not too close.

因為它們是接近恆星 又不是過近

You also need a great diversity of chemical elements,

也同時需要多種化學元素

也需要一些液體 像水

and you need liquids, such as water.

為什麼?

Why?

Well, in gases, atoms move past each other so fast

因為在氣相態 原子與原子的移動過於快速

很難結合

that they can't hitch up.

In solids,

固相態

atoms are stuck together, they can't move.

又因連在一起 無法移動

In liquids,

液相態呢

they can cruise and cuddle

允許四處遊蕩與集結

連結成各種分子

and link up to form molecules.

那到哪裡找到如此的 最適狀態?

Now, where do you find such Goldilocks conditions?

Well, planets are great,

其實行星就是好的

and our early Earth was almost perfect.

我們的地球

就算是幾乎完美

它有著與恆星剛剛好的距離

It was just the right distance from its star

能有著巨大的海洋

to contain huge oceans of liquid water.

And deep beneath those oceans,

在海洋深處

at cracks in the Earth's crust,

地殼縫隙

you've got heat seeping up from inside the Earth,

地熱往上傳遞

and you've got a great diversity of elements.

又有著多種的元素

So at those deep oceanic vents,

所以在深海縫隙

fantastic chemistry began to happen,

神奇的化學反應開始了

and atoms combined in all sorts of exotic combinations.

原子組合成未有的化合物

But of course, life is more than just exotic chemistry.

當然 生命本身

不是只是非比尋常的化學

你要如何穩定這些

How do you stabilize those huge molecules

不穩定的

that seem to be viable?

巨大的分子群?

Well, it's here that life introduces an entirely new trick.

在這時候 生命引入

一整個新把戲

You don't stabilize the individual;

並不是穩定每一個體

you stabilize the template,

而是穩定樣版:

the thing that carries information,

就是攜帶訊息的

與日後可複製的樣版

and you allow the template to copy itself.

DNA 就是這

And DNA, of course, is the beautiful molecule

美麗攜帶訊息

that contains that information.

的化學分子

You'll be familiar with the double helix of DNA.

大家都熟悉雙螺旋體的 DNA

Each rung contains information.

每一連接橫桿都帶著資訊

DNA有著如何製作

So, DNA contains information about how to make living organisms.

生命體的訊息

以及如何自行複製自己

And DNA also copies itself.

所以生物開始複製

So, it copies itself

and scatters the templates through the ocean.

將資訊經由海洋傳遞

同時資訊也傳開了

So the information spreads.

請留意 資訊將扮演一個重要部份

Notice that information has become part of our story.

而DNA精彩的部分是

The real beauty of DNA though is in its imperfections.

在於它的不完美

As it copies itself, once in every billion rungs,

當它在複製時

十億分之一的機會

there tends to be an error.

會產生複製錯誤

And what that means is that DNA is, in effect, learning.

也就是說

DNA 會自我學習

It's accumulating new ways of making living organisms

累積製造新的生命體的方式

因為一些錯誤的確能存用

because some of those errors work.

所以 DNA 一直學習

So DNA's learning

and it's building greater diversity and greater complexity.

它一直建構更多元更複雜的架構

And we can see this happening over the last four billion years.

過去40億年來, 這都一直在發生

For most of that time of life on Earth,

地球的大多數時間

生物體多是以簡單的

living organisms have been relatively simple --

單細胞存在的

single cells.

But they had great diversity, and, inside, great complexity.

但仍是非常多元

與複雜

Then from about 600 to 800 million years ago,

從6~8億年前開始

multi-celled organisms appear.

多細胞生物出現

You get fungi, you get fish,

有了真菌類 有了魚類

有了植物類

you get plants,

you get amphibia, you get reptiles,

有了兩棲類 有了爬蟲類

and then, of course, you get the dinosaurs.

當然 也有了恐龍

And occasionally, there are disasters.

偶而 會有災難

Sixty-five million years ago,

6千5百萬年前

an asteroid landed on Earth

隕石墬落到地球

near the Yucatan Peninsula,

靠近Yucatan 半島

creating conditions equivalent to those of a nuclear war,

創造出相當於核子戰爭的威力

and the dinosaurs were wiped out.

恐龍滅絕

對恐龍來說是壞消息

Terrible news for the dinosaurs,

but great news for our mammalian ancestors,

卻是哺乳動物祖先的好消息

才能在恐龍

who flourished

in the niches left empty by the dinosaurs.

留下的生存縫隙繁衍

And we human beings are part of that creative evolutionary pulse

人類

也是那6千5百萬年開始進化的

一部分

that began 65 million years ago

with the landing of an asteroid.

就在隕石落下後

Humans appeared about 200,000 years ago.

人類出現在20萬年前

And I believe we count as a threshold in this great story.

我相信人類

發展就是宇宙進化的一個階段

Let me explain why.

讓我來做解釋

We've seen that DNA learns in a sense,

我們已經見到DNA是會學習的

it accumulates information.

它會累積資訊

But it is so slow.

卻是非常緩慢的

DNA會累積資訊

DNA accumulates information through random errors,

經由隨機的錯誤

some of which just happen to work.

有的錯誤剛好適用

But DNA had actually generated a faster way of learning:

另外DNA有更快的方式在學習

是經由有腦的生物體

it had produced organisms with brains,

and those organisms can learn in real time.

這種生物就能即時的學習

便能由腦累積資訊 學習

They accumulate information, they learn.

The sad thing is, when they die,

可悲的是

當他們死去 資訊也跟著失去

the information dies with them.

Now what makes humans different is human language.

所以造就人類的不同

就是人類的語言能力

We are blessed with a language, a system of communication,

我們有幸能有語言 是個溝通的系統

是有力與正確的傳達

so powerful and so precise

that we can share what we've learned with such precision

我們能正確分享我們所學的

能集合成一集體智慧

that it can accumulate in the collective memory.

也就是說

And that means

it can outlast the individuals who learned that information,

資訊能夠超過個體的壽命

能以世代的方式傳遞

and it can accumulate from generation to generation.

And that's why, as a species, we're so creative and so powerful,

也因為這 我們這樣的物種 才這麼有創造力

能有這麼大的能耐

and that's why we have a history.

也是這樣我們能記下歷史

40億年來 我們似乎是唯一有

We seem to be the only species in four billion years

此天賦的物種

to have this gift.

我稱此能力為

I call this ability collective learning.

集體式學習

It's what makes us different.

這就是造就我們不同的

We can see it at work in the earliest stages of human history.

我們能明顯

這能力在早期人類歷史中呈現

We evolved as a species in the savanna lands of Africa,

我們是以整個物種的方式進化

即使是在 早期非洲沙瓦那平原時代

but then you see humans migrating into new environments,

接著 也看到人類移居到新環境 ---

into desert lands, into jungles,

進入沙漠地帶 進入叢林

into the Ice Age tundra of Siberia --

進入冰河期的西伯利亞凍土平原

非常非常艱辛的環境 ---

tough, tough environment --

into the Americas, into Australasia.

進入美洲 進入澳洲

每一次的移居 就伴隨著學習

Each migration involved learning --

學習如何開墾新環境

learning new ways of exploiting the environment,

new ways of dealing with their surroundings.

學習新方法與週遭共榮

Then 10,000 years ago,

一萬年前

exploiting a sudden change in global climate

在上個冰河期的末期

面對了突然的氣候變遷

with the end of the last ice age,

人類開始學會農耕

humans learned to farm.

Farming was an energy bonanza.

農耕就是 能源的礦藏

開發這樣的能源

And exploiting that energy, human populations multiplied.

人類數目開始增加

Human societies got larger, denser, more interconnected.

人類社會也跟著增大與密集

更加相互關連

從約500年前

And then from about 500 years ago,

humans began to link up globally

人類開始有全球性的相連

through shipping, through trains,

經由船運 與 鐵路

through telegraph, through the Internet,

經由電報 與 網際網路

until now we seem to form a single global brain

到現在 我們形成了

來自近70億人

的單一全球腦袋

of almost seven billion individuals.

這個腦是以極高速的方式在學習

And that brain is learning at warp speed.

And in the last 200 years, something else has happened.

在過去的200年 另外的事情也發生了

我們發現了另一能源礦藏

We've stumbled on another energy bonanza

就是化石石油

in fossil fuels.

化石石油加上集體式學習

So fossil fuels and collective learning together

explain the staggering complexity we see around us.

解釋了驚人的

週遭的複雜性

So --

所以 我們在此

Here we are,

回到會議中心

back at the convention center.

We've been on a journey, a return journey, of 13.7 billion years.

我們經歷過一個回溯的旅程

到137億年前

I hope you agree this is a powerful story.

希望你也認同這個震撼故事

And it's a story in which humans play an astonishing and creative role.

是個人類扮演著

驚人與創意的角色

But it also contains warnings.

它也帶來警訊

Collective learning is a very, very powerful force,

集合的智慧是個非常巨大的力量

and it's not clear that we humans are in charge of it.

但不明確的是

我們人類是否能控制它

我記得在英格蘭的童年

I remember very vividly as a child growing up in England,

經過古巴飛彈危機

living through the Cuban Missile Crisis.

For a few days, the entire biosphere

有那麼幾天

整個生物圈

seemed to be on the verge of destruction.

似乎濒臨全球毀滅

And the same weapons are still here,

但是同樣的武器仍然存在

and they are still armed.

他們仍然武裝

我們是否能避開那陷阱

If we avoid that trap, others are waiting for us.

其他國也在觀望

We're burning fossil fuels at such a rate

我們使用化石石油的快速

that we seem to be undermining the Goldilocks conditions

就好像忽略所謂的最適狀態

that made it possible for human civilizations

那最適狀態才造就了人類文明

to flourish over the last 10,000 years.

綻放了過去一萬年

So what big history can do

所以這個大歷史能作的是

is show us the nature of our complexity and fragility

告訴我們自己的複雜與脆弱

以及我們所面對的危機

and the dangers that face us,

它也同樣昭示我們

but it can also show us our power with collective learning.

我們有著集體式的智慧力量

And now, finally --

最後

this is what I want.

我想說的是

I want my grandson, Daniel,

我希望我的孫子 Daniel

and his friends and his generation,

及他的朋友與全球

的這代人

throughout the world,

能知道這個大歷史故事

to know the story of big history,

and to know it so well

清楚到

他們明瞭

that they understand both the challenges that face us

我們所面臨的挑戰

and the opportunities that face us.

與所面臨的機會

And that's why a group of us

那也就是我們之中一群人

are building a free, online syllabus

在建構線上教學大綱

有關於大歷史

in big history

for high-school students throughout the world.

針對全球高中生

我們相信大歷史

We believe that big history

will be a vital intellectual tool for them,

在Daniel 及他的同世代

as Daniel and his generation

面對挑戰

face the huge challenges

與無窮機會

and also the huge opportunities

面對下一個

ahead of them at this threshold moment

美麗地球上的進化門檻

會成為他們的一個智慧的工具

in the history of our beautiful planet.

I thank you for your attention.

謝謝聆聽

(Applause)

(掌聲)