Gregory Petsko: The coming neurological epidemic

Translator: Jenny Zurawell

Prevodilac: Vanja Cakić Lektor: Mateja Nenadovic

Unless we do something to prevent it,

Ukoliko ne uradimo nešto da je sprečimo,

over the next 40 years we’re facing an epidemic

u sledećih 40 godina srešćemo se sa epidemijom

of neurologic diseases on a global scale.

neuroloških bolesti na globalnom nivou.

A cheery thought.

Živahna misao.

On this map, every country that’s colored blue

Na ovoj mapi, svaka zemlja koja je obojena plavo

has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65.

ima više od 20% svoje populacije starosti preko 65 godina.

This is the world we live in.

Ovo je svet u kome živimo.

And this is the world your children will live in.

Ovo je svet u kome će vaša deca živeti.

For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population

12 000 godina, distribucija starosti ljudske populacije

has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top.

je izgledala kao piramida, sa najstarijima na vrhu.

It’s already flattening out.

Ona se već ravna.

By 2050, it’s going to be a column and will start to invert.

Do 2050., postaće kolona i počeće da se obrće.

This is why it’s happening.

Evo zašto se to događa.

The average lifespan’s more than doubled since 1840,

Prosečan životni vek se više nego udvostručio od 1840.

and it’s increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day.

i trenutno se povećava po stopi od oko 5 sati svakog dana.

And this is why that’s not entirely a good thing:

A evo zašto to nije u potpunosti dobra stvar:

because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer’s

zato što sa preko 65 godina starosti, vaš rizik da dobijete Alchajmerovu

or Parkinson’s disease will increase exponentially.

ili Parkinsonovu bolest će porasti eksponencijalno.

By 2050, there’ll be about 32 million people in the United States

Do 2050. biće otprilike 32 miliona ljudi u Sjedinjenim Državama

over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it,

preko 80 godina starosti i ako ne uradimo ništa povodom toga

half of them will have Alzheimer’s disease

pola njih će imati Alchajmerovu bolest,

and three million more will have Parkinson’s disease.

a 3 miliona više će imati Parkinsonovu bolest.

Right now, those and other neurologic diseases --

U ovom trenutku, te i ostale neurološke bolesti--

for which we have no cure or prevention --

za koje nemamo lek ili preventivu--

cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year.

koštaju trećinu triliona dolara godišnje.

It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050.

I biće mnogo preko trilion dolara do 2050.

Alzheimer’s disease starts when a protein

Alchajmerova bolest se javlja kada se protein,

that should be folded up properly

koji bi tebalo da bude pravilno presavijen,

misfolds into a kind of demented origami.

pogrešno presavije u vrstu ludog origamija.

So one approach we’re taking is to try to design drugs

Dakle, jedno od pristupa je da probamo da napravimo lekove

that function like molecular Scotch tape,

koji funkcionišu kao molekularni selotejp,

to hold the protein into its proper shape.

da drže protein u pravom obliku.

That would keep it from forming the tangles

To bi trebalo da ga spreči da ne pravi zaplete

that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do.

koji, čini se, ubijaju velike delove mozga kada to rade.

Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases

Zanimljivo je da, druge neurološke bolesti

which affect very different parts of the brain

koje imaju uticaj na različite delove mozga,

also show tangles of misfolded protein,

takođe pokazuju te zaplete pogrešno presavijenog proteina,

which suggests that the approach might be a general one,

što sugerira da bi ovaj pristup možda bio generalan

and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases,

i da bi se mogao koristiti u izlečenju mnogih neuroloških oboljenja,

not just Alzheimer’s disease.

a ne samo Alchajmerove bolesti.

There’s also a fascinating connection to cancer here,

Takođe postoji fascinantna veza sa rakom,

because people with neurologic diseases

zato što ljudi sa neurološkim bolestima

have a very low incidence of most cancers.

imaju veoma nisku učestalost većine rakova.

And this is a connection that most people aren’t pursuing right now,

Ovo je veza koju većina ljudi trenutno ne sledi,

but which we’re fascinated by.

ali kojom smo fascinirani.

Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area

Većinu značajnih i sve kreativne radove u ovoj oblasti

is being funded by private philanthropies.

finansiraju privatni filantropi.

And there’s tremendous scope for additional private help here,

Postoji ogroman obim dodatne privatne pomoći ovde,

because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I’m afraid.

zato što je vlada, bojim se, odustala od mnogo ovakvih stvari.

In the meantime, while we’re waiting for all these things to happen,

U međuvremenu, dok čekamo na sve ove stvari da se dese,

here’s what you can do for yourself.

evo šta možete da uradite za sebe.

If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson’s disease,

Ako želite da smanjite svoj rizik od dobijanja Parkinsonove bolesti,

caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why.

kofein je donekle zaštićujući, niko ne zna zašto.

Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson’s disease.

Povrede glave su loše za vas. One vode Parkinsonovoj bolesti.

And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea.

A ni ptičiji grip nije dobra ideja.

As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer’s disease,

A što se tiče zaštite od Alhcajmerove bolesti,

well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect

pa, ispostavlja se da riblje ulje ima efekat

of reducing your risk for Alzheimer’s disease.

smanjenja vašeg rizika da obolite od Alchajmerove bolesti.

You should also keep your blood pressure down,

Takođe bi trebalo da držite svoj krvni pritisak nisko,

because chronic high blood pressure

zato što hronični visok krvni pritisak

is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease.

predstavlja najveći pojedinačan faktor rizika za Alchajmerovu bolest.

It’s also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma,

Takođe je najveći rizik za glaukom,

which is just Alzheimer’s disease of the eye.

Što je Alchajmerova bolest oka.

And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects,

I naravno, kada se radi o kognitivnim efektima,

"use it or lose it" applies,

"koristite ga ili ćete ga uzgubiti" se može primeniti,

so you want to stay mentally stimulated.

dakle želite da ostanete mentalno stimulirani.

But hey, you’re listening to me.

Ali evo, slušate me.

So you’ve got that covered.

Tako da ste to pokrili.

And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay?

Još jedna stvar za kraj. Poželite ljudima kao što sam ja sreću, važi?

Because the clock is ticking for all of us.

Zato što sat kuca za sve nas.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.