Gregory Petsko: The coming neurological epidemic

Translator: Jenny Zurawell

Translator: David J. Kreps Finnemann Reviewer: Anders Finn Jørgensen

Unless we do something to prevent it,

Medmindre vi gør noget for at forhindre det,

over the next 40 years we’re facing an epidemic

vil vi i løbet af de næste 40 år stå overfor en epidemi

of neurologic diseases on a global scale.

af neurologiske sygdomme på global skala.

A cheery thought.

En munter tanke.

On this map, every country that’s colored blue

På dette kort, har hvert land der er farvet blåt

has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65.

en befolkning hvor mere end 20 procent er over 65 år gammel.

This is the world we live in.

Dette er den verden vi lever i.

And this is the world your children will live in.

Og dette er den verden jeres børn vil leve i.

For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population

I 12.000 år, har inddelingen af alderen i den menneskelige befolkning

has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top.

set ud som en pyramide, med de ældste på toppen.

It’s already flattening out.

Det begynder allerede at flade ud.

By 2050, it’s going to be a column and will start to invert.

I 2050, vil det være en kolonne og vil begynde at vende om.

This is why it’s happening.

Dette er grunden til at det sker.

The average lifespan’s more than doubled since 1840,

Den gennemsnitlige levealder er mere end fordoblet siden 1840,

and it’s increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day.

og det øges for nuværende med en hastighed af fem timer hver dag.

And this is why that’s not entirely a good thing:

Og her er hvorfor det ikke kun er en god ting:

because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer’s

fordi over 65 års alderen, ens risiko for at få Alzheimers

or Parkinson’s disease will increase exponentially.

eller Parkinson vil stige eksponentielt.

By 2050, there’ll be about 32 million people in the United States

I 2050, vil der være cirka 32 millioner mennesker i USA

over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it,

over 80 år, og medmindre vi gør noget ved det,

half of them will have Alzheimer’s disease

vil halvdelen af dem have Alzheimers

and three million more will have Parkinson’s disease.

og yderligere tre millioner vil have Parkinsons.

Right now, those and other neurologic diseases --

Lige nu, disse og andre neurologiske lidelser --

for which we have no cure or prevention --

som der ikke er nogen kur eller forebyggelse imod --

cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year.

koster omkring en tredjedel af en billion dollars om året.

It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050.

Det vil være et godt stykke over en billion dollars i 2050.

Alzheimer’s disease starts when a protein

Alzheimers begynder når proteiner

that should be folded up properly

der skulle foldes korrekt

misfolds into a kind of demented origami.

misfoldes til en slags dement origami.

So one approach we’re taking is to try to design drugs

Så en tilgang som vi tager er at prøve at udvikle lægemidler

that function like molecular Scotch tape,

der virker som en molekylær Scotch tape,

to hold the protein into its proper shape.

til at holde proteiner i deres rigtige form.

That would keep it from forming the tangles

Det ville holde dem fra at forme det virvar

that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do.

der virker til at dræbe store dele af hjernen når de gør det.

Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases

Interessant nok, andre neurologiske lidelser

which affect very different parts of the brain

der påvirker meget andre dele af hjernen

also show tangles of misfolded protein,

viser også et virvar af misfoldede proteiner,

which suggests that the approach might be a general one,

hvilket foreslår at den tilgang måske er en general en,

and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases,

og måske kan bruges til at kurere mange neurologiske lidelser,

not just Alzheimer’s disease.

ikke kun Alzheimers.

There’s also a fascinating connection to cancer here,

Der er også en fascinerende forbindelse med kræft her,

because people with neurologic diseases

fordi mennesker med neurologiske lidelser

have a very low incidence of most cancers.

har meget lave forekomster af de fleste kræftformer.

And this is a connection that most people aren’t pursuing right now,

Og dette er en forbindelse som de fleste mennesker ikke forfølger lige nu,

but which we’re fascinated by.

men som vi er fascineret af.

Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area

Det meste af vigtige og al det kreative arbejde i dette område

is being funded by private philanthropies.

bliver finansieret af private filantroper.

And there’s tremendous scope for additional private help here,

Og der er en forrygende rækkevide til yderligere privat hjælp her,

because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I’m afraid.

fordi det offentlige er kommet helt bagud af dansen i meget af dette, er jeg bange for.

In the meantime, while we’re waiting for all these things to happen,

I mellemtiden, mens vi venter på at alle disse ting sker,

here’s what you can do for yourself.

kan man gøre dette for sig selv.

If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson’s disease,

Hvis man vil sænke ens risiko for Parkinson,

caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why.

er koffein meget beskyttende til en vis grad; ingen ved hvorfor.

Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson’s disease.

Skader på hovedet er dårlige for en. De leder til Parkinson.

And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea.

Og fugleinfluenza er heller ikke nogen god ide.

As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer’s disease,

Hvad angår at beskytte sig selv mod Alzheimers,

well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect

jamen, det viser sig at fiskeolie har den effekt

of reducing your risk for Alzheimer’s disease.

at reducere ens risiko for Alzheimers.

You should also keep your blood pressure down,

Man bør også holde sit blodtryk nede,

because chronic high blood pressure

fordi kronisk højt blodtryk

is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease.

er den største risiko for Alzheimers.

It’s also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma,

Det er også den største risiko for stær,

which is just Alzheimer’s disease of the eye.

hvilket bare er Alzheimers i øjet.

And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects,

Og selvfølgelig, når det kommer til kognitive effekter,

"use it or lose it" applies,

gælder "brug det eller mist det",

so you want to stay mentally stimulated.

så man skal holde sig mentalt stimuleret.

But hey, you’re listening to me.

Men hey, I lytter til mig.

So you’ve got that covered.

Så den er dækket ind.

And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay?

Og en sidste ting. Ønsk mennesker som mig held, okay?

Because the clock is ticking for all of us.

Fordi tiden går for os alle sammen.

Thank you.

Tak