Gregory Petsko: The coming neurological epidemic

Translator: Jenny Zurawell

Prevoditelj: Željko Babić Recezent: Zrinka Gattin

Unless we do something to prevent it,

Ukoliko ne učinimo nešto da to spriječimo

over the next 40 years we’re facing an epidemic

u slijedećih 40 godina, suočit ćemo se sa epidemijom

of neurologic diseases on a global scale.

neuroloških bolesti na globalnoj razini.

A cheery thought.

Vesela pomisao.

On this map, every country that’s colored blue

Na ovoj mapi, svaka zemlja obojana plavo

has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65.

ima više od 20 posto populacije u dobi od preko 65 godina.

This is the world we live in.

To je svijet u kojem živimo.

And this is the world your children will live in.

A ovo je svijet u kojem će živjeti naša djeca.

For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population

12.000 godina je distribucija starosti ljudske populacije

has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top.

izgledala poput piramide, sa najstarijima na vrhu.

It’s already flattening out.

Već sada se izravnava.

By 2050, it’s going to be a column and will start to invert.

A do 2050. će postati stupčasta i počet se izokretat.

This is why it’s happening.

Evo zašto se to dešava.

The average lifespan’s more than doubled since 1840,

Prosječna životna dob se više nego udvostručila od 1840.

and it’s increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day.

i tenutačno se povećava brzinom od oko pet sati po danu.

And this is why that’s not entirely a good thing:

A evo i zašto to nije sasvim dobra stvar:

because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer’s

zbog toga što će pri dobi većoj od 65 g., rizik da dobijete Alzheimerovu

or Parkinson’s disease will increase exponentially.

ili Parkinsonovu bolest rasti eksponencijalno.

By 2050, there’ll be about 32 million people in the United States

2050. će u Sjedinjenim Državama biti oko 32 milijuna ljudi

over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it,

starijih od 80 g. i ukoliko ne poduzmemo nešto,

half of them will have Alzheimer’s disease

pola od njih će imati Alzheimerovu bolest,

and three million more will have Parkinson’s disease.

a još tri milijuna će imati Parkinsonovu bolest.

Right now, those and other neurologic diseases --

Upravo sada, te i druge neurološke bolesti --

for which we have no cure or prevention --

za koje nemamo lijek ili prevenciju --

cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year.

koštaju oko trećinu bilijuna dolara svake godine.

It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050.

To će iznositi dobrano više od bilijun dolara do 2050.

Alzheimer’s disease starts when a protein

Alzheimerova bolest započinje kada se protein

that should be folded up properly

koji bi se trebao pravilno foldati (op. poprimiti strukturu)

misfolds into a kind of demented origami.

misfolda u dementan origami.

So one approach we’re taking is to try to design drugs

Dakle jedan pristup koji poduzimamo je da pokušavamo dizajnirati lijekove

that function like molecular Scotch tape,

koji će funkcionirati poput molekulske ljepljive vrpce,

to hold the protein into its proper shape.

kako bi se protein zadržao u svom ispravnom obliku.

That would keep it from forming the tangles

To bi ga spriječilo da se zamrsi,

that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do.

što izgleda, ubija velike dijelove mozga, kada se desi.

Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases

Podjednako zanimljivo je da, druge neurološke bolesti,

which affect very different parts of the brain

koje utječu na vrlo različite dijelove mozga,

also show tangles of misfolded protein,

također pokazuju klupka misfoldanih proteina,

which suggests that the approach might be a general one,

što upućuje na to da bi pristup mogao biti općenit

and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases,

i iskoristiv za liječenje mnogih neuroloških bolesti,

not just Alzheimer’s disease.

ne samo Alzheimerove bolesti.

There’s also a fascinating connection to cancer here,

Ovdje je prisutna i fascinantna povezanost sa rakom,

because people with neurologic diseases

jer ljudi s neurološkim oboljenjem

have a very low incidence of most cancers.

imaju vrlo malu učestalost većine rakova.

And this is a connection that most people aren’t pursuing right now,

A to je poveznica s kojom se većina ljudi trenutačno ne bavi,

but which we’re fascinated by.

ali kojom smo fascinirani.

Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area

Većina značajnog i sav kreativan rad u tom području

is being funded by private philanthropies.

financiran je od strane privatnih filantropa.

And there’s tremendous scope for additional private help here,

Prostor za dodatnu privatnu pomoć je ogroman,

because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I’m afraid.

jer bojim se da je vlada odustala

In the meantime, while we’re waiting for all these things to happen,

U međuvremenu, dok čekamo da se sve te stvari dese,

here’s what you can do for yourself.

evo što možete učiniti za sebe.

If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson’s disease,

Ako želite smanjiti svoj rizik od Parkinsonove bolesti,

caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why.

kofein djeluje donekle zaštitno; nitko ne zna zašto.

Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson’s disease.

Ozlijede glave su loše za vas. One dovode do Parkinsonove bolesti.

And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea.

A ptičja gripa također nije dobra ideja.

As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer’s disease,

Što se tiče zaštite od Alzheimerove bolesti,

well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect

ispada da riblje ulje

of reducing your risk for Alzheimer’s disease.

smanjuje rizik od oboljenja.

You should also keep your blood pressure down,

Trebali bi također držati krvni tlak pod kontrolom,

because chronic high blood pressure

jer je kronični visoki krvni tlak

is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease.

najveći pojedinačni rizični faktor za Alzheimerovu bolest.

It’s also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma,

Također je i najveći rizični faktor za glaukom,

which is just Alzheimer’s disease of the eye.

koji je Alzheimerova bolest očiju.

And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects,

I naravno, kada se radi o kognitivnim sposobnostima,

"use it or lose it" applies,

primjenjiva je izreka "use it or lose it" ("koristi ili izgubi")

so you want to stay mentally stimulated.

tako da želite ostati mentalno stimulirani.

But hey, you’re listening to me.

Ali, već ionako slušate mene.

So you’ve got that covered.

Tako da je to rješeno.

And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay?

I jedna posljednja stvar. Poželite ljudima poput mene sreću, u redu?

Because the clock is ticking for all of us.

Jer sat nam svima otkucava.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.