Gregory Petsko: The coming neurological epidemic

Translator: Jenny Zurawell

翻译人员: Qu Wei 校对人员: dahong zhang

Unless we do something to prevent it,

如果我们还不采取措施开始保护的话

over the next 40 years we’re facing an epidemic

那么40年后，我们将面临一场

of neurologic diseases on a global scale.

神经疾病的全球性蔓延。

A cheery thought.

比较有意思的想法哈。

On this map, every country that’s colored blue

在这张地图上，所有蓝色区域的国家中

has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65.

百分之20的人口年龄大于65岁。

This is the world we live in.

这是现在的情况。

And this is the world your children will live in.

这是我们下一代的情况。

For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population

12000年前，人口年龄分布图

has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top.

像一座金字塔，年长者在顶端。

It’s already flattening out.

现在，顶端基本上已经平坦了。

By 2050, it’s going to be a column and will start to invert.

预计到2050年时，整个分布图会变成柱状并开始上下颠倒。

This is why it’s happening.

发生这种变化的原因是。

The average lifespan’s more than doubled since 1840,

人类的平均寿命长度已经从1840年时翻了一倍

and it’s increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day.

并且还在以每天5小时的速度增加

And this is why that’s not entirely a good thing:

这并不全是一个好消息，因为：

because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer’s

当人们65岁以后，患老年痴呆症

or Parkinson’s disease will increase exponentially.

和帕金斯症的机率会成指数级增加

By 2050, there’ll be about 32 million people in the United States

到2050年时，美国会有3千2百万人

over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it,

年龄大于80岁，如果我们还不采取措施的话

half of them will have Alzheimer’s disease

他们中的一半会得老年痴呆症

and three million more will have Parkinson’s disease.

三百万人会得帕金斯症。

Right now, those and other neurologic diseases --

当前，这类神经疾病

for which we have no cure or prevention --

我们还无法治愈或预防

cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year.

尽管我们每年要花费掉将近3000亿美元

It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050.

这个数字到2050年预计会超过1万亿美元。

Alzheimer’s disease starts when a protein

老年痴呆症的发生就像是

that should be folded up properly

本来应该折叠成正确形状的蛋白质

misfolds into a kind of demented origami.

被胡乱揉成一团

So one approach we’re taking is to try to design drugs

因此我们可以设想：能否制造

that function like molecular Scotch tape,

一种分子胶

to hold the protein into its proper shape.

把蛋白质固定成它本来的形状

That would keep it from forming the tangles

这样就可以避免在它变形的过程中缠结一团

that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do.

从而破坏了大面积的脑神经

Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases

更有意思的是：在其他一些

which affect very different parts of the brain

影响不同脑功能的神经类疾病

also show tangles of misfolded protein,

，也发现了错误折叠纠缠一团的蛋白质

which suggests that the approach might be a general one,

这就是说：原因也许是一致的

and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases,

也许可以用来治疗很多神经类疾病

not just Alzheimer’s disease.

并不只是老年痴呆症

There’s also a fascinating connection to cancer here,

另外，神经疾病还与癌症有密切关系。

because people with neurologic diseases

因为神经疾病患者的

have a very low incidence of most cancers.

各种癌症的发病率都很低

And this is a connection that most people aren’t pursuing right now,

绝大多数人都还没有去探索这两者之间的关系

but which we’re fascinated by.

但我们对此却很感兴趣。

Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area

最重要的一点是：所有该领域的有创造性的研究资金全部

is being funded by private philanthropies.

来自于私人慈善贡献。

And there’s tremendous scope for additional private help here,

该领域还需要巨大的私人资金支持

because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I’m afraid.

因为恐怕政府不太关注这个领域。

In the meantime, while we’re waiting for all these things to happen,

同时，在等待过程中，

here’s what you can do for yourself.

可以为自己做些预防

If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson’s disease,

如果你想减少患帕金森症的机率

caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why.

咖啡因似乎有些作用，但没人知道为什么。

Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson’s disease.

头部受伤会增加患帕金斯症的机率。

And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea.

禽流感也一样。

As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer’s disease,

至于预防老年痴呆症

well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect

鱼油是可以有效地

of reducing your risk for Alzheimer’s disease.

降低患老年痴呆症的风险。

You should also keep your blood pressure down,

另外，还应该注意保持血压

because chronic high blood pressure

因为慢性高血压

is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease.

是最有可能导致老年痴呆症的。

It’s also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma,

同时也是最有可能导致青光眼的

which is just Alzheimer’s disease of the eye.

青光眼其实就是“老年痴呆症-眼睛版”

And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects,

当然涉及到认知的影响时

"use it or lose it" applies,

“用进废退”原则适用

so you want to stay mentally stimulated.

所以如果想要保持精神刺激的话

But hey, you’re listening to me.

那么你们听见我说的了吧。

So you’ve got that covered.

那样这部分就没问题啦。

And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay?

最后，祝愿像我这样的科研人员幸运。

Because the clock is ticking for all of us.

因为时钟滴答作响，时不我待。

Thank you.

谢谢。