Gregory Petsko: The coming neurological epidemic

Translator: Jenny Zurawell

Translator: Nika Kotnik Reviewer: Matej Divjak

Unless we do something to prevent it,

Če ne naredimo nič, da jo preprečimo,

over the next 40 years we’re facing an epidemic

se bomo v naslednjih 40 letih soočili z epidemijo

of neurologic diseases on a global scale.

nevroloških bolezni globalnih razsežnosti.

A cheery thought.

Vesela misel.

On this map, every country that’s colored blue

Na tem zemljevidu ima vsaka država modre barve

has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65.

več kot 20 odstotkov populacije starejše od 65 let.

To je svet, v katerem živimo.

This is the world we live in.

In to je svet, v katerem bodo živeli naši otroci.

And this is the world your children will live in.

For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population

12 000 let je starostna porazdelitev ljudi

has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top.

izgledala kot piramida, z najstarejšimi na vrhu.

It’s already flattening out.

Že postaja ploščata.

Leta 2050 bo stolp in začela se bo obračati.

By 2050, it’s going to be a column and will start to invert.

This is why it’s happening.

Zato se to dogaja.

Povprečna življenjska doba se je od leta 1840 več kot podvojila,

The average lifespan’s more than doubled since 1840,

in trenutno se povečuje s hitrostjo približno pet ur na dan.

and it’s increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day.

And this is why that’s not entirely a good thing:

In zato to ni povsem dobra stvar:

because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer’s

ker se po 65 letu tveganje za Alzheimerjevo

ali Parkinsonovo bolezen eksponentno poveča.

or Parkinson’s disease will increase exponentially.

Do leta 2050 bo približno 32 milijonov ljudi v Združenih državah

By 2050, there’ll be about 32 million people in the United States

over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it,

starejših od osemdeset let, in razen, če nekaj ne ukrenemo,

half of them will have Alzheimer’s disease

jih bo polovica imela Alzheimerjevo bolezen,

and three million more will have Parkinson’s disease.

in tri milijone več bo imelo Parkinsonovo bolezen.

Right now, those and other neurologic diseases --

Trenutno te in druge nevrološke bolezni--

za katere nimamo zdravila ali preventive--

for which we have no cure or prevention --

stanejo tretjino bilijona dolarjev letno.

cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year.

Do leta 2050 bo to krepko preseglo bilijon dolarjev.

It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050.

Alzheimerjevo bolezen začne protein,

Alzheimer’s disease starts when a protein

that should be folded up properly

ki bi se moral pravilno zviti,

misfolds into a kind of demented origami.

a se napačno zvije v nekakšen dementen origami.

So one approach we’re taking is to try to design drugs

En pristop, o katerem razglabljamo, je razvoj zdravil,

that function like molecular Scotch tape,

ki bi delovala kot molekularni lepilni trak,

ki drži protein v pravi obliki.

to hold the protein into its proper shape.

To bi preprečilo nastajanje vozlov,

That would keep it from forming the tangles

ki očitno pobijejo velike dele možganov, ko nastanejo.

that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do.

Zanimivo je, da druge nevrološke bolezni,

Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases

which affect very different parts of the brain

ki vplivajo na zelo drugačne dele možganov,

prav tako kažejo vozle napačno zvitih proteinov,

also show tangles of misfolded protein,

kar namiguje, da je pristop enoten

which suggests that the approach might be a general one,

in bi se lahko uporabil za zdravljenje mnogih nevroloških bolezni,

and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases,

not just Alzheimer’s disease.

ne samo Alzheimerjeve.

There’s also a fascinating connection to cancer here,

Prav tako je tu fascinantna povezava z rakom,

because people with neurologic diseases

ker imajo ljudje z nevrološkimi boleznimi

have a very low incidence of most cancers.

zelo nizko pojavnost večine rakov.

And this is a connection that most people aren’t pursuing right now,

In to je povezava, ki je večina ljudi trenutno ne raziskuje,

but which we’re fascinated by.

ampak nas fascinira.

Večino pomembnega in vse kreativno delo na tem področju

Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area

is being funded by private philanthropies.

financirajo privatni dobrodelneži.

Tu je še neverjetno veliko prostora za dodatno privatno pomoč,

And there’s tremendous scope for additional private help here,

ker je vlada dvignila roke nad večino tega, se bojim.

because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I’m afraid.

In the meantime, while we’re waiting for all these things to happen,

Medtem ko čakamo, da se vse te stvari zgodijo,

lahko tole storite sami.

here’s what you can do for yourself.

Pri preprečevanju Parkinsonove bolezni

If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson’s disease,

caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why.

ima kofein do neke mere zaščitno vlogo, nihče ne ve zakaj.

Poškodbe glave so slabe za vas. Vodijo v Parkinsonovo bolezen.

Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson’s disease.

And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea.

In ptičja gripa je prav tako slaba ideja.

As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer’s disease,

Za zaščito pred Alzheimerjevo boleznijo

well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect

se je izkazalo, da ribje olje

of reducing your risk for Alzheimer’s disease.

zmanjšuje vaše tveganje za Alzheimerjevo bolezen.

You should also keep your blood pressure down,

Prav tako poskrbite za nizek krvni tlak,

ker je kronično povišan krvni tlak

because chronic high blood pressure

največji faktor tveganja pri tej bolezni.

is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease.

It’s also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma,

Prav tako je največji faktor tveganja za glavkom,

which is just Alzheimer’s disease of the eye.

kar je pravzaprav samo Alzheimerjeva bolezen očesa.

Ko pa pridemo kognitivnih sposobnosti,

And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects,

"use it or lose it" applies,

tu velja "kar ne uporabljaš, izgubiš"

so you want to stay mentally stimulated.

zato hočete ostati mentalno stimulirani.

But hey, you’re listening to me.

Ampak, hej, mene poslušate.

So you’ve got that covered.

Tako, da je za to poskrbljeno.

In še zadnja stvar. Zaželite ljudem, kot sem jaz, srečo, prav?

And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay?

Because the clock is ticking for all of us.

Ker ura teče za vse nas.

Thank you.

Hvala.