How to stay calm when you know you'll be stressed | Daniel Levitin | TED

17,874,187 views ใƒป 2015-11-23

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Shlomo Adam ืžื‘ืงืจ: Roni Ravia
00:13
A few years ago, I broke into my own house.
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ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืžื” ืฉื ื™ื ืคืจืฆืชื™ ืœืชื•ืš ื‘ื™ืชื™.
00:16
I had just driven home,
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ื–ื” ืขืชื” ื”ื’ืขืชื™ ื”ื‘ื™ืชื”,
00:18
it was around midnight in the dead of Montreal winter,
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ื”ืฉืขื” ื”ื™ืชื” ื—ืฆื•ืช ื‘ืขืจืš, ื‘ืืžืฆืข ื”ื—ื•ืจืฃ ืฉืœ ืžื•ื ื˜ืจื™ืื•ืœ,
00:20
I had been visiting my friend, Jeff, across town,
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ื—ื–ืจืชื™ ืžื‘ื™ืงื•ืจ ืืฆืœ ื—ื‘ืจื™, ื’'ืฃ, ื‘ืฆื“ ื”ืฉื ื™ ืฉืœ ื”ืขื™ืจ,
ื•ื”ืžื“ื—ื•ื ื‘ื›ื ื™ืกื” ืœื‘ื™ืช ื”ืจืื” ืžื™ื ื•ืก 40 ืžืขืœื•ืช --
00:23
and the thermometer on the front porch read minus 40 degrees --
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00:27
and don't bother asking if that's Celsius or Fahrenheit,
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ืืœ ืชื˜ืจื—ื• ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืื ืฆืœื–ื™ื•ืก ืื• ืคืจื ื”ื™ื™ื˜,
00:30
minus 40 is where the two scales meet --
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ืฉื ื™ ื”ืกื•ืœืžื•ืช ื”ืืœื” ื ืคื’ืฉื™ื ื‘ืžื™ื ื•ืก 40 ืžืขืœื•ืช --
00:33
it was very cold.
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ื”ื™ื” ืงืจ ืžืื“.
00:34
And as I stood on the front porch fumbling in my pockets,
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ื•ื›ืฉืขืžื“ืชื™ ื‘ื›ื ื™ืกื” ืœื‘ื™ืช, ื•ื—ื™ื˜ื˜ืชื™ ื‘ื›ื™ืกื™ื
00:37
I found I didn't have my keys.
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ื’ื™ืœื™ืชื™ ืฉื”ืžืคืชื—ื•ืช ืœื ืืฆืœื™.
00:40
In fact, I could see them through the window,
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ืœืžืขืŸ ื”ืืžืช, ื™ื›ื•ืœืชื™ ืœืจืื•ืชื ื“ืจืš ื”ื—ืœื•ืŸ,
00:42
lying on the dining room table where I had left them.
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ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ืขืœ ืฉื•ืœื—ืŸ ื”ืื•ื›ืœ, ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ืฉื”ืฉืืจืชื™ ืื•ืชื.
00:45
So I quickly ran around and tried all the other doors and windows,
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ืื– ืจืฆืชื™ ืžื”ืจ ื•ื‘ื“ืงืชื™ ืืช ื›ืœ ื™ืชืจ ื”ื“ืœืชื•ืช ื•ื”ื—ืœื•ื ื•ืช,
00:48
and they were locked tight.
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ืฉื”ื™ื• ื ืขื•ืœื™ื ื”ื™ื˜ื‘.
00:50
I thought about calling a locksmith -- at least I had my cellphone,
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ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ ืœื”ืชืงืฉืจ ืœืžื ืขื•ืœืŸ -- ืœืžื–ืœื™ ื”ื™ื” ืœื™ ื”ื˜ืœืคื•ืŸ ื”ืกืœื•ืœืจื™,
00:53
but at midnight, it could take a while for a locksmith to show up,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื—ืฆื•ืช ื”ื™ื” ืขืœื•ืœ ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ื–ืžืŸ ืจื‘ ืขื“ ืฉื™ื’ื™ืข ื”ืžื ืขื•ืœืŸ,
00:56
and it was cold.
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ื•ื”ื™ื” ืงืจ.
01:00
I couldn't go back to my friend Jeff's house for the night
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ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœืชื™ ืœื—ื–ื•ืจ ืœืœื•ืŸ ืืฆืœ ื—ื‘ืจื™
ื›ื™ ืœืžื—ืจืช ื‘ื‘ื•ืงืจ ื”ื™ืชื” ืœื™ ื˜ื™ืกื” ืžื•ืงื“ืžืช ืœืื™ืจื•ืคื”,
01:03
because I had an early flight to Europe the next morning,
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01:05
and I needed to get my passport and my suitcase.
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ื•ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื–ืงื•ืง ืœื“ืจื›ื•ืŸ ื•ืœืžื–ื•ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื™.
01:08
So, desperate and freezing cold,
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ื•ื›ืš, ื ื•ืืฉ ื•ืงืคื•ื ืžืงื•ืจ,
01:10
I found a large rock and I broke through the basement window,
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ืžืฆืืชื™ ืื‘ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื•ื ื™ืคืฆืชื™ ืืช ื—ืœื•ืŸ ื”ืžืจืชืฃ,
01:14
cleared out the shards of glass,
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ืคื™ื ื™ืชื™ ืืช ืฉื‘ืจื™ ื”ื–ื›ื•ื›ื™ืช,
01:16
I crawled through,
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ื–ื—ืœืชื™ ืคื ื™ืžื”,
01:17
I found a piece of cardboard and taped it up over the opening,
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ืžืฆืืชื™ ืœื•ื— ืงืจื˜ื•ืŸ ื•ื”ืฆืžื“ืชื™ ืื•ืชื• ืœืคื™ืจืฆื”,
01:21
figuring that in the morning, on the way to the airport,
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ืžืชื•ืš ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืฉื‘ื‘ื•ืงืจ, ื‘ื“ืจืš ืœื ืžืœ ื”ืชืขื•ืคื”,
ืืชืงืฉืจ ืœืงื‘ืœืŸ ืฉืœื™ ื•ืื‘ืงืฉ ืžืžื ื• ืœืชืงืŸ ืืช ื”ื—ืœื•ืŸ.
01:24
I could call my contractor and ask him to fix it.
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01:26
This was going to be expensive,
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ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ื™ืงืจ,
01:28
but probably no more expensive than a middle-of-the-night locksmith,
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ืื‘ืœ ื•ื“ืื™ ื–ื•ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื”ื–ืขืงืช ืžื ืขื•ืœืŸ ื‘ืืžืฆืข ื”ืœื™ืœื”,
01:31
so I figured, under the circumstances, I was coming out even.
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ืื– ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ ืฉืœืื•ืจ ื”ื ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช, ื™ืฆืืชื™ ื‘ืกื“ืจ.
01:36
Now, I'm a neuroscientist by training
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ืื ื™ ืžื“ืขืŸ ืžื•ื— ื‘ื”ื›ืฉืจืชื™,
01:39
and I know a little bit about how the brain performs under stress.
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ื•ืื ื™ ื™ื•ื“ืข ืžืฉื”ื• ืขืœ ืชืคืงื•ื“ ื”ืžื•ื— ื‘ืžืฆื‘ื™ ื“ื—ืง.
01:43
It releases cortisol that raises your heart rate,
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ื”ื•ื ืžืคืจื™ืฉ ืงื•ืจื˜ื™ื–ื•ืœ ืฉืžื’ื‘ื™ืจ ืืช ืงืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘,
01:46
it modulates adrenaline levels
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ืžื•ื•ืกืช ืืช ืจืžื•ืช ื”ืื“ืจื ืœื™ืŸ,
ื•ืžืขืจืคืœ ืืช ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”.
01:49
and it clouds your thinking.
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01:51
So the next morning,
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ืื– ื‘ื‘ื•ืงืจ ืฉืœืžื—ืจืช,
01:53
when I woke up on too little sleep,
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ื›ืฉื”ืชืขื•ืจืจืชื™ ืื—ืจื™ ืžืขื˜ ืžื“ื™ ืฉื™ื ื”,
01:55
worrying about the hole in the window,
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ื›ืฉืื ื™ ืžื•ื˜ืจื“ ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื—ื•ืจ ืฉื‘ื—ืœื•ืŸ,
01:58
and a mental note that I had to call my contractor,
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ื•ืžื–ื›ื™ืจ ืœืขืฆืžื™ ืฉืขืœื™ ืœื”ืชืงืฉืจ ืœืงื‘ืœืŸ,
02:01
and the freezing temperatures,
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ื•ื”ื˜ืžืคืจื˜ื•ืจื” ื”ืžืงืคื™ืื”,
02:02
and the meetings I had upcoming in Europe,
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ื•ื”ืคื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ืฉืฆื™ืคื• ืœื™ ื‘ืื™ืจื•ืคื”,
02:05
and, you know, with all the cortisol in my brain,
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ื•ืขื ื›ืœ ื”ืงื•ืจื˜ื™ื–ื•ืœ ื”ื–ื” ื‘ืžื•ื—,
02:08
my thinking was cloudy,
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ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื™ ื”ื™ืชื” ืžืขื•ืจืคืœืช,
02:10
but I didn't know it was cloudy because my thinking was cloudy.
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ืื‘ืœ ืœื ื™ื“ืขืชื™ ืฉื”ื™ื ืžืขื•ืจืคืœืช ื›ื™ ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื™ ื”ื™ืชื” ืžืขื•ืจืคืœืช.
02:13
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:15
And it wasn't until I got to the airport check-in counter,
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ื•ืจืง ื›ืฉื”ื’ืขืชื™ ืœื“ืœืคืง ื”ื‘ื™ื“ื•ืง ื‘ื ืžืœ ื”ืชืขื•ืคื”,
02:18
that I realized I didn't have my passport.
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ืงืœื˜ืชื™ ืฉื”ื“ืจื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื™ ืื™ื ื• ืืฆืœื™.
02:20
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:22
So I raced home in the snow and ice, 40 minutes,
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ืื– ื“ื”ืจืชื™ ื”ื‘ื™ืชื” ื‘ืฉืœื’ ื•ื‘ืงืจื—, 40 ื“ืงื•ืช,
02:26
got my passport, raced back to the airport,
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ืœืงื—ืชื™ ืืช ื”ื“ืจื›ื•ืŸ, ื“ื”ืจืชื™ ื‘ื—ื–ืจื” ืœื ืžืœ ื”ืชืขื•ืคื”,
02:28
I made it just in time,
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ื”ื’ืขืชื™ ื‘ืจื’ืข ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ,
02:30
but they had given away my seat to someone else,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื‘ืจ ืžืกืจื• ืืช ื”ืžื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืœื™ ืœืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ,
02:32
so I got stuck in the back of the plane, next to the bathrooms,
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ืื– ืชืงืขื• ืื•ืชื™ ื‘ื™ืจื›ืชื™ ื”ืžื˜ื•ืก, ืœื™ื“ ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื,
02:35
in a seat that wouldn't recline, on an eight-hour flight.
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ื‘ืžื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืื™ื ื• ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ื˜ื™ื™ื” ื‘ื˜ื™ืกื” ื‘ืช 8 ืฉืขื•ืช.
02:39
Well, I had a lot of time to think during those eight hours and no sleep.
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ื ื•, ื”ื™ื” ืœื™ ื”ืจื‘ื” ื–ืžืŸ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืชืŸ 8 ืฉืขื•ืช ืœืœื ืฉื™ื ื”.
02:43
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:44
And I started wondering, are there things that I can do,
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ื•ืื ื™ ื”ืชื—ืœืชื™ ืœืชื”ื•ืช: ื”ืื ื™ืฉ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช,
02:47
systems that I can put into place,
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ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืคืขื•ืœื” ืฉืื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ื›ื™ืŸ,
02:49
that will prevent bad things from happening?
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ืฉื™ืžื ืขื• ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืจืขื™ื ืœืงืจื•ืช?
02:51
Or at least if bad things happen,
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ืื• ืœืคื—ื•ืช, ืื ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืจืขื™ื ืื›ืŸ ื™ืงืจื•,
02:53
will minimize the likelihood of it being a total catastrophe.
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ื™ืงื˜ื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ืกื‘ื™ืจื•ืช ืœืืกื•ืŸ ืžื•ื—ืœื˜.
02:59
So I started thinking about that,
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ื”ืชื—ืœืชื™ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื–ื”,
03:00
but my thoughts didn't crystallize until about a month later.
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื—ืฉื‘ื•ืชื™ ื”ืชื’ื‘ืฉื• ืจืง ื›ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื›ื—ื•ื“ืฉ.
03:03
I was having dinner with my colleague, Danny Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner,
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ืกืขื“ืชื™ ืขื ืขืžื™ืชื™, ื“ื ื™ ื›ื”ื ืžืŸ, ื—ืชืŸ ืคืจืก ื ื•ื‘ืœ,
ื•ื‘ืžื‘ื•ื›ื” ืžืกื•ื™ืžืช ืกื™ืคืจืชื™ ืœื• ืขืœ ื›ืš ืฉืฉื‘ืจืชื™ ืืช ื”ื—ืœื•ืŸ ืฉืœื™,
03:07
and I somewhat embarrassedly told him about having broken my window,
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03:10
and, you know, forgotten my passport,
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ื•ืฉืฉื›ื—ืชื™ ืืช ื”ื“ืจื›ื•ืŸ,
03:13
and Danny shared with me
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ื•ื“ื ื™ ื’ื™ืœื” ืœื™
03:14
that he'd been practicing something called prospective hindsight.
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ืฉื”ื•ื ืžืชืจื’ืœ ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื ืงืจื ืชื—ื–ื™ืช ื‘ืžื‘ื˜ ืœืื—ื•ืจ.
03:19
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
03:20
It's something that he had gotten from the psychologist Gary Klein,
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ื–ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื”ื•ื ืœืžื“ ืžื”ืคืกื™ื›ื•ืœื•ื’ ื’ืจื™ ืงืœื™ื™ืŸ,
ืฉื›ืชื‘ ืขืœ ื›ืš ื›ืžื” ืฉื ื™ื ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืŸ,
03:24
who had written about it a few years before,
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03:26
also called the pre-mortem.
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ื•ืงืจื•ื™ ื’ื "ืคืจื”-ืžื•ืจื˜ื" (ื ืชื™ื—ื” ืฉืœืคื ื™ ื”ืžื•ื•ืช).
03:28
Now, you all know what the postmortem is.
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ื›ื•ืœื›ื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืžื”ื• "ืคื•ืกื˜-ืžื•ืจื˜ื" (ื ืชื™ื—ื” ืฉืœืื—ืจ ื”ืžื•ื•ืช).
03:30
Whenever there's a disaster,
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ื›ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉ ืืกื•ืŸ,
03:31
a team of experts come in and they try to figure out what went wrong, right?
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ืžื’ื™ืข ืฆื•ื•ืช ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืฉืžื ืกื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืžื” ื”ืฉืชื‘ืฉ, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
ืื– ื‘ืคืจื”-ืžื•ืจื˜ื, ื”ืกื‘ื™ืจ ื“ื ื™,
03:36
Well, in the pre-mortem, Danny explained,
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03:38
you look ahead and you try to figure out all the things that could go wrong,
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ืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื ืงื“ื™ืžื” ื•ืžื ืกื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื™ืœื• ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฉืชื‘ืฉ,
03:42
and then you try to figure out what you can do
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ื•ืื– ืžื ืกื™ื ืœืžืฆื•ื ืžื” ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื›ื“ื™ ืœืžื ื•ืข ืืช ื”ืชืจื—ืฉื•ืชื
03:45
to prevent those things from happening, or to minimize the damage.
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ืื• ืœืžื–ืขืจ ืืช ื”ื ื–ืง.
03:48
So what I want to talk to you about today
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ืื– ื”ื™ื•ื ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื™ ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืืชื›ื,
03:51
are some of the things we can do in the form of a pre-mortem.
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ืขืœ ื›ืžื” ืžื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืคืจื”-ืžื•ืจื˜ื.
ื—ืœืงื ื‘ืจื•ืจื™ื ืžืืœื™ื”ื, ื•ื—ืœืงื - ืœื ื›ืœ-ื›ืš.
03:55
Some of them are obvious, some of them are not so obvious.
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ืืชื—ื™ืœ ืžื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ื‘ืจื•ืจื™ื.
03:58
I'll start with the obvious ones.
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03:59
Around the home, designate a place for things that are easily lost.
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ื”ืงืฆื• ื‘ื‘ื™ืช ืžืงื•ื ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœืื™ื‘ื•ื“ ื‘ืงืœื•ืช.
04:05
Now, this sounds like common sense, and it is,
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ื–ื” ื ืฉืžืข ื”ื’ื™ื•ืŸ ื‘ืจื™ื, ื•ื–ื” ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืžื” ืฉื–ื”,
04:09
but there's a lot of science to back this up,
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืžื’ื•ื‘ื” ื‘ืžื“ืข ืจื‘,
04:12
based on the way our spatial memory works.
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ื”ืžื‘ื•ืกืก ืขืœ ืื•ืคืŸ ืคืขื•ืœืชื• ืฉืœ ื”ื–ื›ืจื•ืŸ ื”ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ืฉืœื ื•.
04:15
There's a structure in the brain called the hippocampus,
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ื™ืฉ ื‘ืžื•ื— ืจืงืžื” ื‘ืฉื ื”ื™ืคื•ืงืžืคื•ืก,
04:18
that evolved over tens of thousands of years,
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ืฉื”ืชืคืชื—ื” ื‘ืžืฉืš ืขืฉืจื•ืช ืืœืคื™ ืฉื ื™ื,
04:21
to keep track of the locations of important things --
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขืงื•ื‘ ืื—ืจ ืžื™ืงื•ืžื ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื --
ืื™ืคื” ื”ื‘ืืจ, ืื™ืคื” ืืคืฉืจ ืœืžืฆื•ื ื“ื’ื™ื,
04:25
where the well is, where fish can be found,
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04:27
that stand of fruit trees,
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ืื™ืคื” ื™ืฉ ืขืฆื™ ืคืจื™,
ืื™ืคื” ื”ืฉื‘ื˜ื™ื ื”ื™ื“ื™ื“ื•ืชื™ื™ื ื•ืื™ืคื” ืฉื‘ื˜ื™ ื”ืื•ื™ื‘.
04:30
where the friendly and enemy tribes live.
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04:32
The hippocampus is the part of the brain
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ื”ื”ื™ืคื•ืงืžืคื•ืก ื”ื•ื ืื•ืชื• ื—ืœืง ื‘ืžื•ื—
04:34
that in London taxicab drivers becomes enlarged.
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ืฉืžื•ื’ื“ืœ ืžืื“ ืืฆืœ ื ื”ื’ื™ ืžื•ื ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืœื•ื ื“ื•ืŸ.
ื–ื”ื• ืื•ืชื• ื—ืœืง ื‘ืžื•ื— ืฉืžืืคืฉืจ ืœืกื ืื™ื ืœืžืฆื•ื ืื’ื•ื–ื™ื.
04:38
It's the part of the brain that allows squirrels to find their nuts.
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04:41
And if you're wondering, somebody actually did the experiment
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ื•ืœืžืงืจื” ืฉืชื”ื™ืชื, ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ื‘ืืžืช ืขืจืš ื ื™ืกื•ื™
04:44
where they cut off the olfactory sense of the squirrels,
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ืฉื‘ื• ื ื™ืชืง ืืช ื—ื•ืฉ ื”ืจื™ื— ืฉืœ ืกื ืื™ื,
04:47
and they could still find their nuts.
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ื•ื”ื ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื• ืœืžืฆื•ื ืืช ื”ืื’ื•ื–ื™ื.
04:49
They weren't using smell, they were using the hippocampus,
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ื”ื ืœื ื ืขื–ืจื• ื‘ื—ื•ืฉ ื”ืจื™ื— ืืœื ื‘ื”ื™ืคื•ืงืžืคื•ืก,
04:52
this exquisitely evolved mechanism in the brain for finding things.
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ืื•ืชื• ืžื ื’ื ื•ืŸ ืžื•ื— ื™ื™ื—ื•ื“ื™ ืฉื”ืชืคืชื— ืœืฉื ืžืฆื™ืืช ื“ื‘ืจื™ื.
04:57
But it's really good for things that don't move around much,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื˜ื•ื‘ ืžืื“ ืœื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืœื ื–ื–ื™ื ื”ืจื‘ื”,
ื•ืœื ื”ื›ื™ ื˜ื•ื‘ ืœื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืžืฉื ื™ื ืžื™ืงื•ื.
05:01
not so good for things that move around.
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05:03
So this is why we lose car keys and reading glasses and passports.
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืื ื• ืžืื‘ื“ื™ื ืžืคืชื—ื•ืช, ืžืฉืงืคื™ ืงืจื™ืื” ื•ื“ืจื›ื•ื ื™ื.
05:07
So in the home, designate a spot for your keys --
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ืื– ื‘ื‘ื™ืชื›ื, ื”ื’ื“ื™ืจื• ืžืงื•ื ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื”ืžืคืชื—ื•ืช --
05:10
a hook by the door, maybe a decorative bowl.
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ื•ื• ืœื™ื“ ื”ื“ืœืช, ืื™ื–ื• ืงืขืจืช ื ื•ื™.
05:13
For your passport, a particular drawer.
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ืœื“ืจื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื›ื - ืžื’ื™ืจื” ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ืช.
05:15
For your reading glasses, a particular table.
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ืœืžืฉืงืคื™ ื”ืงืจื™ืื” ืฉืœื›ื - ืฉื•ืœื—ืŸ ืžืกื•ื™ื.
ืื ืชื’ื“ื™ืจื• ืžื™ืงื•ื ื•ืชืงืคื™ื“ื• ืขืœื™ื•,
05:18
If you designate a spot and you're scrupulous about it,
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05:21
your things will always be there when you look for them.
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืœื›ื ืชืžื™ื“ ื™ื™ืžืฆืื• ืฉื ื›ืฉืชื—ืคืฉื• ืื•ืชื.
05:24
What about travel?
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ืžื” ืขื ื ืกื™ืขื•ืช?
05:25
Take a cell phone picture of your credit cards,
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ืฆืœืžื• ื‘ืžื›ืฉื™ืจ ื”ื ื™ื™ื“ ืฉืœื›ื ืืช ื›ืจื˜ื™ืกื™ ื”ืืฉืจืื™ ืฉืœื›ื,
ืืช ืจืฉื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื ื”ื™ื’ื”, ืืช ื”ื“ืจื›ื•ืŸ,
05:28
your driver's license, your passport,
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05:30
mail it to yourself so it's in the cloud.
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ืฉื™ืœื—ื• ืืช ื”ืชืžื•ื ื•ืช ืœืขืฆืžื›ื ื›ื“ื™ ืฉืชื™ืžืฆืื ื” ื‘ืขื ืŸ.
05:32
If these things are lost or stolen, you can facilitate replacement.
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ืื ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืืœื” ื™ืื‘ื“ื• ืื• ื™ื™ื’ื ื‘ื•, ื–ื” ื™ืงืœ ืขืœ ื”ืฉื’ืช ืชื—ืœื™ืคื™ื.
ืืœื” ื”ื ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืžื•ื‘ื ื™ื ืžืืœื™ื”ื.
05:37
Now these are some rather obvious things.
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05:39
Remember, when you're under stress, the brain releases cortisol.
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ื–ื™ื›ืจื•: ื›ืฉืืชื ื‘ืœื—ืฅ, ื”ืžื•ื— ืžืคืจื™ืฉ ืงื•ืจื˜ื™ื–ื•ืœ.
05:43
Cortisol is toxic, and it causes cloudy thinking.
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ื”ืงื•ืจื˜ื™ื–ื•ืœ ืจืขื™ืœ. ื”ื•ื ืžืขืจืคืœ ืืช ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”.
05:46
So part of the practice of the pre-mortem
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ืื– ื—ืœืง ืžืชืจื’ื•ืœ ื”ืคืจื”-ืžื•ืจื˜ื,
ื”ื•ื ืœื”ื›ื™ืจ ื‘ื›ืš ืฉื‘ืžืฆื‘ื™ ืœื—ืฅ ืœื ืชื”ื™ื• ื‘ืžื™ื˜ื‘ื›ื,
05:49
is to recognize that under stress you're not going to be at your best,
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05:53
and you should put systems in place.
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ื•ืฉืขืœื™ื›ื ืœื”ื’ื“ื™ืจ ืžืจืืฉ ื“ืจื›ื™ ืคืขื•ืœื”.
05:55
And there's perhaps no more stressful a situation
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ื•ืื•ืœื™ ืื™ืŸ ืžืฆื‘ ืœื—ื•ืฅ ื™ื•ืชืจ
05:58
than when you're confronted with a medical decision to make.
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ืžืืฉืจ ื”ืฆื•ืจืš ืœืงื‘ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ืจืคื•ืื™ืช.
ื•ืžืชื™ืฉื”ื•, ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ื”ื–ื”,
06:02
And at some point, all of us are going to be in that position,
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06:05
where we have to make a very important decision
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ืฉื‘ื• ื ื™ืืœืฅ ืœืงื‘ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
06:07
about the future of our medical care or that of a loved one,
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืขืชื™ื“ ื”ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ ื”ืจืคื•ืื™ ืฉืœื ื• ืื• ืฉืœ ื™ืงื™ืจื™ื ื•,
ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื”ื ื‘ืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื”.
06:11
to help them with a decision.
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06:12
And so I want to talk about that.
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ืื– ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื–ื”,
06:14
And I'm going to talk about a very particular medical condition.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื‘ืขื™ื” ืจืคื•ืื™ืช ืžืกื•ื™ืžืช ืžืื“,
06:17
But this stands as a proxy for all kinds of medical decision-making,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื ืžื™ื™ืฆื’ืช ืฉืœืœ ืžืฆื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืจืคื•ืื™ื•ืช,
ื•ื‘ืขืฆื ื’ื ืงื‘ืœืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ื•ืช, ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื•ืช --
06:21
and indeed for financial decision-making, and social decision-making --
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ื›ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ืฉืขืœื™ื›ื ืœืงื‘ืœ
06:25
any kind of decision you have to make
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06:27
that would benefit from a rational assessment of the facts.
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ื›ืš ืฉืชืฆืื• ื ืฉื›ืจื™ื ืžื”ืขืจื›ื” ืฉืงื•ืœื” ืฉืœ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื•ืช.
06:31
So suppose you go to your doctor and the doctor says,
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ื ื ื™ื— ืฉืืชื ื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœืจื•ืคื ื•ื”ืจื•ืคื ืื•ืžืจ:
06:34
"I just got your lab work back, your cholesterol's a little high."
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"ืงื™ื‘ืœืชื™ ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืžื”ืžืขื‘ื“ื” ื•ื”ื›ื•ืœืกื˜ืจื•ืœ ืฉืœืš ืงืฆืช ื’ื‘ื•ื”."
06:39
Now, you all know that high cholesterol
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ื›ื•ืœื›ื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื›ื•ืœืกื˜ืจื•ืœ ื’ื‘ื•ื”
06:42
is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease,
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ืงืฉื•ืจ ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืžื•ื’ื‘ืจ ืœืžื—ืœืช-ืœื‘,
06:46
heart attack, stroke.
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ืœื”ืชืงืฃ ืœื‘, ืœืฉื‘ืฅ.
06:47
And so you're thinking
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืืชื ืžืกื™ืงื™ื,
ืฉื›ื•ืœืกื˜ืจื•ืœ ื’ื‘ื•ื” ืื™ื ื ื• ืจืฆื•ื™ ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“,
06:49
having high cholesterol isn't the best thing,
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06:51
and so the doctor says, "You know, I'd like to give you a drug
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ื•ื”ืจื•ืคื ืื•ืžืจ: "ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœืชืช ืœืš ืชืจื•ืคื”
06:54
that will help you lower your cholesterol, a statin."
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"ืฉืชืขื–ื•ืจ ืœืš ืœื”ื•ืจื™ื“ ืืช ืจืžืช ื”ื›ื•ืœืกื˜ืจื•ืœ - ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืŸ."
ื•ื“ืื™ ืฉืžืขืชื ืขืœ ืงื‘ื•ืฆืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืŸ,
06:57
And you've probably heard of statins,
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ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื”ืŸ ืฉื›ื™ื—ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืžืจืฉืžื™ ืจื•ืคื
06:59
you know that they're among the most widely prescribed drugs
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ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื›ื™ื•ื
07:01
in the world today,
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ืื•ืœื™ ืืชื ืืคื™ืœื• ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืฉืœื•ืงื— ืื•ืชืŸ.
07:03
you probably even know people who take them.
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ืื– ืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื: "ื‘ืกื“ืจ. ืชืŸ ืœื™ ืืช ื”ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืŸ."
07:05
And so you're thinking, "Yeah! Give me the statin."
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื–ื” ืขืœื™ื›ื ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืฉืืœื” ืžืกื•ื™ืžืช,
07:07
But there's a question you should ask at this point,
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ืขืœื™ื›ื ืœื‘ืงืฉ ื ืชื•ืŸ ืžืกื•ื™ื,
07:10
a statistic you should ask for
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07:11
that most doctors don't like talking about,
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ืฉืจื•ื‘ ื”ืจื•ืคืื™ื ืœื ืื•ื”ื‘ื™ื ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœื™ื•,
07:14
and pharmaceutical companies like talking about even less.
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ื•ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช - ืืคื™ืœื• ืคื—ื•ืช.
07:18
It's for the number needed to treat.
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ื”ื ืชื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื "ื”ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืœื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ".
07:21
Now, what is this, the NNT?
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ืžื”ื• "ื”ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืœื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ" NNT?
07:23
It's the number of people that need to take a drug
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ื–ื”ื• ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืงื—ืช ืชืจื•ืคื” ื›ืœืฉื”ื™
07:26
or undergo a surgery or any medical procedure
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ืื• ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ื ื™ืชื•ื— ืื• ื”ืœื™ืš ืจืคื•ืื™ ื›ืœืฉื”ื•
ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื–ื” ืขื•ื–ืจ ืœืžื™ืฉื”ื•.
07:29
before one person is helped.
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07:31
And you're thinking, what kind of crazy statistic is that?
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ื•ืืชื ื•ื“ืื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื: "ืื™ื–ื” ืžื™ืŸ ื ืชื•ืŸ ืžื˜ื•ืจืฃ ื–ื”?
07:34
The number should be one.
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"ื”ืžืกืคืจ ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื™ื•ืช 1.
07:35
My doctor wouldn't prescribe something to me
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"ื”ืจื•ืคื ืฉืœื™ ื”ืจื™ ืœื ื™ืจืฉื•ื ืœื™ ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืœื ื™ืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื™."
07:37
if it's not going to help.
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07:39
But actually, medical practice doesn't work that way.
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ืืš ืœืžืขืŸ ื”ืืžืช, ื”ืจืคื•ืื” ืœื ืขื•ื‘ื“ืช ื›ื›ื”,
07:41
And it's not the doctor's fault,
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ื•ื–ื• ืœื ืืฉืžืชื• ืฉืœ ื”ืจื•ืคื,
07:43
if it's anybody's fault, it's the fault of scientists like me.
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ืื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ื‘ื›ืœืœ ืืฉื, ื”ืจื™ ืฉื–ื• ืืฉืžืชื ืฉืœ ืžื“ืขื ื™ื ื›ืžื•ื ื™.
ืœื ื”ื‘ื ื• ืขื“ ื”ืกื•ืฃ ืืช ืžื ื’ื ื•ื ื™ ื”ืคืขื•ืœื” ื”ื™ืกื•ื“ื™ื™ื,
07:46
We haven't figured out the underlying mechanisms well enough.
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07:48
But GlaxoSmithKline estimates
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ืื‘ืœ ื’ืœืงืกื•-ืกืžื™ืชืณ-ืงืœื™ื™ืŸ ืžืขืจื™ื›ื”
07:51
that 90 percent of the drugs work in only 30 to 50 percent of the people.
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ืฉ-90% ืžื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืคื•ืขืœื•ืช ืจืง ืขืœ 30-50 ืื—ื•ื– ืžื”ืื ืฉื™ื.
07:56
So the number needed to treat for the most widely prescribed statin,
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืœื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืชืจื•ืคืช ื”ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืŸ ื”ืคื•ืคื•ืœืจื™ืช,
08:00
what do you suppose it is?
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ืžื”ื•, ืœื“ืขืชื›ื?
08:02
How many people have to take it before one person is helped?
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ื›ืžื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืงื—ืช ืื•ืชื” ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื™ื ืชืขื–ื•ืจ ืœืื“ื ืื—ื“?
08:05
300.
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300.
08:07
This is according to research
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ื–ื” ืขื•ืœื” ืžืžื—ืงืจ
08:08
by research practitioners Jerome Groopman and Pamela Hartzband,
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ืฉืขืจื›ื• ื”ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ื’'ืจื•ื ื’ืจื•ืคืžืŸ ื•ืคืžืœื” ื”ืจืฆื‘ื ื“,
ื•ืฉืื•ืžืช ื‘ื ืคืจื“ ืข"ื™ ื‘ืœื•ืžื‘ืจื’.ืงื•ื.
08:12
independently confirmed by Bloomberg.com.
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08:14
I ran through the numbers myself.
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ืื ื™ ืขืฆืžื™ ืขื‘ืจืชื™ ืขืœ ื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื.
08:17
300 people have to take the drug for a year
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300 ืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืงื—ืช ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื‘ืžืฉืš ืฉื ื”
08:20
before one heart attack, stroke or other adverse event is prevented.
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ืชืงืฃ-ืœื‘ ืื—ื“, ืฉื‘ืฅ ืื—ื“ ืื• ืื™ืจื•ืข ืฉืœื™ืœื™ ืื—ืจ ื ืžื ืขื™ื.
08:24
Now you're probably thinking,
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ืืชื ื•ื“ืื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืœืขืฆืžื›ื:
08:25
"Well, OK, one in 300 chance of lowering my cholesterol.
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"ื ื•, ื˜ื•ื‘. ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืฉืœ 1 ืœ-300 ืœื”ื•ืจื™ื“ ืืช ืจืžืช ื”ื›ื•ืœืกื˜ืจื•ืœ ืฉืœื™.
08:28
Why not, doc? Give me the prescription anyway."
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"ืœืžื” ืœื, ื“ื•ืงื˜ื•ืจ? ืชืŸ ืœื™ ื‘ื›ืœ ื–ืืช ืืช ื”ืžืจืฉื."
08:30
But you should ask at this point for another statistic,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืขืช ืขืœื™ื›ื ืœื‘ืงืฉ ื ืชื•ืŸ ื ื•ืกืฃ,
08:33
and that is, "Tell me about the side effects." Right?
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ื•ื”ื•ื: "ืกืคืจ ืœื™ ืขืœ ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ื”ืœื•ื•ืื™." ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
08:36
So for this particular drug,
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ืื– ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื”ืžืกื•ื™ืžืช ื”ื–ืืช,
08:37
the side effects occur in five percent of the patients.
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ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ื”ืœื•ื•ืื™ ืžืชืจื—ืฉื•ืช ืืฆืœ 5% ืžื”ืžื˜ื•ืคืœื™ื,
08:41
And they include terrible things --
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ื•ื”ืŸ ื›ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืื™ื•ืžื™ื --
08:43
debilitating muscle and joint pain, gastrointestinal distress --
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ื›ืื‘ ืžืฉืชืง ื‘ืฉืจื™ืจื™ื ื•ื‘ืžืคืจืงื™ื, ืžืฆื•ืงื” ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืขื™ื›ื•ืœ --
08:47
but now you're thinking, "Five percent,
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ืื‘ืœ ืืชื ื•ื“ืื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื: "ื—ืžื™ืฉื” ืื—ื•ื–?
08:49
not very likely it's going to happen to me,
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"ืœื ืกื‘ื™ืจ ืฉื–ื” ื™ืงืจื” ื“ื•ื•ืงื ืœื™. ืืงื— ื‘ื›ืœ ื–ืืช ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื”."
08:51
I'll still take the drug."
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08:52
But wait a minute.
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ืื‘ืœ, ืจื’ืข.
ื–ื™ื›ืจื• ืฉื‘ืžืฆื‘ื™ ืœื—ืฅ ืื™ื ื›ื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ื‘ื‘ื”ื™ืจื•ืช.
08:54
Remember under stress you're not thinking clearly.
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08:56
So think about how you're going to work through this ahead of time,
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ืœื›ืŸ, ื—ื™ืฉื‘ื• ืžืจืืฉ ืื™ืš ืชืฉืงืœื• ืืช ื–ื”,
ื›ื“ื™ ืฉืœื ืชื™ืืœืฆื• ืœื™ื™ืฆืจ ืืช ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ื ื™ืžื•ืงื™ื ื‘ืžืงื•ื.
08:59
so you don't have to manufacture the chain of reasoning on the spot.
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300 ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื•ืงื—ื™ื ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื”, ื ื›ื•ืŸ? ื”ื™ื ืขื•ื–ืจืช ืœืื—ื“,
09:02
300 people take the drug, right? One person's helped,
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ืœ-5% ืžื”-300 ื™ืฉ ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ืœื•ื•ืื™,
09:05
five percent of those 300 have side effects,
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09:07
that's 15 people.
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘-15 ืื™ืฉ.
09:09
You're 15 times more likely to be harmed by the drug
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ืกื‘ื™ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืคื™ 15 ืฉืชื™ืคื’ืขื• ืžืŸ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื”,
09:13
than you are to be helped by the drug.
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ืžืืฉืจ ืฉื”ื™ื ืชืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื›ื.
09:16
Now, I'm not saying whether you should take the statin or not.
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ืื™ื ื ื™ ืื•ืžืจ ืื ืขืœื™ื›ื ืœืงื—ืช ืืช ื”ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืŸ ืื• ืœื.
09:19
I'm just saying you should have this conversation with your doctor.
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ืื ื™ ืจืง ืื•ืžืจ ืฉืขืœื™ื›ื ืœื ื”ืœ ืฉื™ื—ื” ื–ื• ืขื ื”ืจื•ืคื ืฉืœื›ื.
09:22
Medical ethics requires it,
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ื”ืืชื™ืงื” ื”ืจืคื•ืื™ืช ื“ื•ืจืฉืช ื–ืืช,
ื–ื”ื• ื—ืœืง ืžืขืงืจื•ืŸ ื”ื”ืกื›ืžื” ื”ืžื•ืฉื›ืœืช.
09:24
it's part of the principle of informed consent.
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09:26
You have the right to have access to this kind of information
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ื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ื–ื›ื•ืช ืœืงื‘ืœ ื’ื™ืฉื” ืœืžื™ื“ืข ื›ื–ื”,
09:29
to begin the conversation about whether you want to take the risks or not.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืฉืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื”ืชื—ื™ืœ ืœื“ื•ืŸ ื‘ืฉืืœื” ืื ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื›ื ืœืงื—ืช ืืช ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืื• ืœื.
09:33
Now you might be thinking
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ื›ืขืช ืืชื ื•ื“ืื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื
09:34
I've pulled this number out of the air for shock value,
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ืฉื”ืžืฆืืชื™ ืกืชื ืืช ื”ืžืกืคืจ ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืœื–ืขื–ืข,
09:37
but in fact it's rather typical, this number needed to treat.
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ืื‘ืœ ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ื•ื ืื•ืคื™ื™ื ื™ ืœืžื“ื™, "ื”ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืœื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ" ื”ื–ื”.
09:40
For the most widely performed surgery on men over the age of 50,
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ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืื—ื“ ื”ื ื™ืชื•ื—ื™ื ื”ื ืคื•ืฆื™ื ื‘ื’ื‘ืจื™ื ืžืขืœ ื’ื™ืœ 50,
09:45
removal of the prostate for cancer,
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ื”ืกืจืช ื”ืขืจืžื•ื ื™ืช ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืกืจื˜ืŸ,
09:47
the number needed to treat is 49.
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ื”ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืœื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ ื”ื•ื 49.
09:50
That's right, 49 surgeries are done for every one person who's helped.
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ื ื›ื•ืŸ ืžืื“. ืžื‘ื•ืฆืขื™ื 49 ื ื™ืชื•ื—ื™ื ื›ื ื’ื“ ืื—ื“ ืฉืขื•ื–ืจ.
09:54
And the side effects in that case occur in 50 percent of the patients.
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ื•ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ื”ืœื•ื•ืื™ ื‘ืžืงืจื” ื–ื” ืžืชืจื—ืฉื•ืช ืืฆืœ 50% ืžื”ืžื˜ื•ืคืœื™ื.
09:59
They include impotence, erectile dysfunction,
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ื”ืŸ ื›ื•ืœืœื•ืช ืื™ืžืคื•ื˜ื ืฆื™ื”, ืื™ืŸ-ืื•ื ื•ืช,
10:01
urinary incontinence, rectal tearing,
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ื“ืœื™ืคืช ืฉืชืŸ, ืงืจื™ืขืช ืคื™ ื”ื˜ื‘ืขืช,
10:04
fecal incontinence.
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ืื™-ืฉืœื™ื˜ื” ืขืœ ืกื•ื’ืจื™ ืคื™ ื”ื˜ื‘ืขืช,
10:06
And if you're lucky, and you're one of the 50 percent who has these,
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ื•ืื ื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ืžื–ืœ, ื•ืืชื ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”-50% ืฉืกื•ื‘ืœื™ื ืžืืœื”,
10:09
they'll only last for a year or two.
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ื–ื” ื™ื™ืžืฉืš ืจืง ืฉื ื”-ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื.
10:12
So the idea of the pre-mortem is to think ahead of time
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ืื– ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืคืจื”-ืžื•ืจื˜ื ื”ื•ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืžืจืืฉ
10:16
to the questions that you might be able to ask
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ืขืœ ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ืฉืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืฉืื•ืœ
ื•ืฉื™ืชืจืžื• ืœื“ื™ื•ืŸ.
10:19
that will push the conversation forward.
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10:21
You don't want to have to manufacture all of this on the spot.
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ืœื ื›ื“ืื™ ืœื›ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื›ืœ ื–ื” ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืืžื™ืชื™.
10:24
And you also want to think about things like quality of life.
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ื•ืืชื ื•ื“ืื™ ื’ื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื›ืžื• ืื™ื›ื•ืช ื—ื™ื™ื,
10:27
Because you have a choice oftentimes,
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ื›ื™ ืœืขืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ื ื™ืฆื‘ืช ืžื•ืœื›ื ื”ื‘ืจื™ืจื”:
10:29
do you I want a shorter life that's pain-free,
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ื”ืื ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ื—ื™ื™ื ืงืฆืจื™ื ื•ื ื˜ื•ืœื™ ื›ืื‘,
10:31
or a longer life that might have a great deal of pain towards the end?
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ืื• ื—ื™ื™ื ืืจื•ื›ื™ื ืฉืขืœื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื™ื™ืกืจื™ื ืœืžื“ื™ ืœืงืจืืช ื”ืกื•ืฃ?
10:35
These are things to talk about and think about now,
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ืืœื” ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื“ื•ืŸ ื•ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœื™ื”ื ื›ืจื’ืข,
10:37
with your family and your loved ones.
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ืขื ื‘ื ื™ ืžืฉืคื—ืชื›ื ื•ื™ืงื™ืจื›ื.
10:39
You might change your mind in the heat of the moment,
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ืื•ืœื™ ืชืฉื ื• ืืช ื“ืขืชื›ื ื‘ืœื”ื˜ ื”ืจื’ืข,
ืื‘ืœ ืœืคื—ื•ืช ื”ืชืืžื ืชื ื‘ืกื•ื’ ื–ื” ืฉืœ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”.
10:42
but at least you're practiced with this kind of thinking.
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10:45
Remember, our brain under stress releases cortisol,
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ื–ื™ื›ืจื•: ื‘ืžืฆื‘ื™ ืœื—ืฅ ื”ืžื•ื— ืžืคืจื™ืฉ ืงื•ืจื˜ื™ื–ื•ืœ,
10:49
and one of the things that happens at that moment
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ื•ืื—ื“ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืงื•ืจื™ื ื‘ืื•ืชื• ืจื’ืข
10:52
is a whole bunch on systems shut down.
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ื”ื•ื ืฉื”ืžื•ืŸ ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื ื›ื‘ื•ืช.
10:54
There's an evolutionary reason for this.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื›ืš ืกื™ื‘ื” ืื‘ื•ืœื•ืฆื™ื•ื ื™ืช.
10:56
Face-to-face with a predator, you don't need your digestive system,
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ื‘ืขื™ืžื•ืช ืขื ื˜ื•ืจืฃ, ืื™ื ื›ื ื–ืงื•ืงื™ื ืœืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืขื™ื›ื•ืœ ืฉืœื›ื,
10:59
or your libido, or your immune system,
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ืœื™ืฆืจ ื”ืžื™ืŸ ืื• ืœืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ืช ืฉืœื›ื,
ื›ื™ ืื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ื™ื‘ื–ื‘ื– ืื ืจื’ื™ื™ืช ื—ื™ืœื•ืฃ ื—ื•ืžืจื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืืœื”,
11:02
because if you're body is expending metabolism on those things
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11:05
and you don't react quickly,
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ื•ืœื ืชื’ื™ื‘ื• ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช,
11:07
you might become the lion's lunch, and then none of those things matter.
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ืชื”ืคื›ื• ืœืืจื•ื—ืช ื”ืฆื”ืจื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืืจื™ื”, ื•ืฉื•ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืžื›ืœ ืืœื” ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ื—ืฉื•ื‘.
11:11
Unfortunately,
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ืœืžืจื‘ื” ื”ืฆืขืจ,
11:12
one of the things that goes out the window during those times of stress
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ืื—ื“ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืžืฉืชืชืงื™ื ื‘ื–ืžื ื™ ืœื—ืฅ ื›ืืœื”
11:16
is rational, logical thinking,
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ื”ื•ื ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื”ื’ื™ื•ื ื™ืช ื•ืฉื›ืœืชื ื™ืช,
11:18
as Danny Kahneman and his colleagues have shown.
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ื›ืคื™ ืฉื”ื•ื›ื™ื—ื• ื“ื ื™ ื›ื”ื ืžืŸ ื•ืขืžื™ืชื™ื•.
ืœื›ืŸ ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืืžืŸ ืืช ืขืฆืžื ื• ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืžืจืืฉ
11:22
So we need to train ourselves to think ahead
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11:25
to these kinds of situations.
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉืฆืฆื•ืช ื ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ื›ืืœื”.
11:27
I think the important point here is recognizing that all of us are flawed.
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ืœื“ืขืชื™, ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืœื”ื›ื™ืจ ื‘ื›ืš ืฉื›ื•ืœื ื• ืคื’ื•ืžื™ื.
11:33
We all are going to fail now and then.
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ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืขืชื™ื“ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื›ืฉืœ ืžื™ื“ื™ ืคืขื.
11:36
The idea is to think ahead to what those failures might be,
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ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืžืจืืฉ ืื™ืœื• ื›ืฉืœื•ื ื•ืช ืขืœื•ืœื™ื ืœืงืจื•ืช,
11:40
to put systems in place that will help minimize the damage,
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ืœื”ื›ื™ืŸ ืžืจืืฉ ืืช ืื•ืคืŸ ื”ืคืขื•ืœื” ืฉื™ืžื–ืขืจ ืืช ื”ื ื–ืง,
ืื• ืฉื™ืžื ืข ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืจืขื™ื ืœืงืจื•ืช ืžืœื›ืชื—ื™ืœื”.
11:44
or to prevent the bad things from happening in the first place.
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11:48
Getting back to that snowy night in Montreal,
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ืื ื ื—ื–ื•ืจ ืœืื•ืชื• ืœื™ืœื” ืžื•ืฉืœื’ ื‘ืžื•ื ื˜ืจื™ืื•ืœ.
11:50
when I got back from my trip,
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ื›ืฉื—ื–ืจืชื™ ืžื”ื ืกื™ืขื” ืฉืœื™,
11:52
I had my contractor install a combination lock next to the door,
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ื“ืื’ืชื™ ืœื›ืš ืฉื”ืงื‘ืœืŸ ืฉืœื™ ื™ืชืงื™ืŸ ื›ืกืคืช ืงื˜ื ื” ืœื™ื“ ื”ื“ืœืช,
11:56
with a key to the front door in it, an easy to remember combination.
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ื•ื‘ื” ืžืคืชื— ืœื“ืœืช ื”ืงื“ืžื™ืช, ืขื ืฆื™ืจื•ืฃ ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืฉืงืœ ืœื–ื›ื•ืจ.
12:00
And I have to admit,
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ื•ืขืœื™ ืœื”ื•ื“ื•ืช,
12:01
I still have piles of mail that haven't been sorted,
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื™ ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืขืจืžื•ืช ื“ื•ืืจ ื‘ืœืชื™ ืžืžื•ื™ืŸ,
12:04
and piles of emails that I haven't gone through.
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ื•ืขืจื™ืžื•ืช ื“ื•ื"ืœ ืฉื˜ืจื ืขื‘ืจืชื™ ืขืœื™ื•.
12:07
So I'm not completely organized,
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ื›ืš ืฉืื™ื ื ื™ ืœื’ืžืจื™ ืžืื•ืจื’ืŸ,
12:09
but I see organization as a gradual process,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืขื™ื ื™, ืืจื’ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื”ื“ืจื’ืชื™,
12:12
and I'm getting there.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืขื•ื“ ืืฆืœื™ื—.
12:13
Thank you very much.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื.
12:14
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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