The riddle of experience vs. memory | Daniel Kahneman

1,377,866 views ・ 2010-03-01

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Translator: Lasse Christensen Reviewer: Mikael Fuhr
00:15
Everybody talks about happiness these days.
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Alle snakker om lykken nu om stunder.
00:18
I had somebody count the number of books
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Jeg fik nogen til at tælle, hvor mange bøger
00:21
with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years
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med "lykke" i titlen, der er udgivet inden for de sidste fem år.
00:24
and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.
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De gav op efter omkring 40, og der var mange flere.
00:29
There is a huge wave of interest in happiness,
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Der er en enorm interesse for lykken,
00:32
among researchers.
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blandt forskere.
00:34
There is a lot of happiness coaching.
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Der er kurser i at blive lykkelig.
00:36
Everybody would like to make people happier.
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Alle vil gerne gøre folk lykkeligere.
00:38
But in spite of all this flood of work,
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Men på trods af dette store arbejde
00:42
there are several cognitive traps
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er der en række kognitive fælder,
00:44
that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight
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der gør det næsten umuligt at tænke klart
00:47
about happiness.
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over spørgsmålet om lykken.
00:49
And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.
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I dag vil jeg først og fremmest snakke om disse kognitive fælder.
00:52
This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness,
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Det vedrører alle, der funderer over deres egen lykke,
00:55
and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness,
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såvel som akademikere, der studerer lykken,
00:58
because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.
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for det viser sig, at vi er lige så forvirrede som alle andre.
01:02
The first of these traps
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Den første af disse fælder
01:04
is a reluctance to admit complexity.
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er en modvilje mod at indrømme, at det er indviklet.
01:07
It turns out that the word "happiness"
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Det viser sig, at ordet "lykke"
01:10
is just not a useful word anymore,
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ikke er et nyttigt ord længere,
01:13
because we apply it to too many different things.
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for vi bruger det om for mange forskellige ting.
01:16
I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it,
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Man kunne måske fastholde en snæver mening,
01:19
but by and large,
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men i det store og hele
01:21
this is something that we'll have to give up
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er det noget, vi må lægge på hylden
01:23
and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view
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for i stedet at acceptere et mere kompliceret billede af,
01:27
of what well-being is.
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hvad velvære indebærer.
01:29
The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory;
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Den anden fælde vedrører forvirring omkring oplevelse og erindring.
01:33
basically, it's between being happy in your life,
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Altså omkring forskellen på at være lykkelig i livet
01:36
and being happy about your life
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og at være lykkelig ved tanken om ens liv,
01:38
or happy with your life.
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eller lykkelig over ens liv.
01:40
And those are two very different concepts,
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Og det er to vidt forskellige koncepter,
01:42
and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.
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der begge er proppet ind i lykkebegrebet.
01:45
And the third is the focusing illusion,
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Den tredje er fokus-illusionen, der uheldigvis medfører,
01:48
and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance
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at vi ikke kan tænke på en omstændighed,
01:51
that affects well-being
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der har med velvære at gøre,
01:53
without distorting its importance.
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uden at forvrænge dens betydning.
01:55
I mean, this is a real cognitive trap.
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Det er virkelig en kognitiv fælde.
01:58
There's just no way of getting it right.
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Det kan simpelthen ikke lade sig gøre.
02:01
Now, I'd like to start with an example
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Jeg vil gerne indlede med et eksempel,
02:03
of somebody who had a question-and-answer session
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hvor jeg blev stillet et spørgsmål i spørgetiden
02:08
after one of my lectures reported a story,
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efter en af mine forelæsninger, hvor han fortalte en historie,
02:12
and that was a story --
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og det var en historie...
02:13
He said he'd been listening to a symphony,
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Han fortalte, at han havde lyttet til en symfoni,
02:16
and it was absolutely glorious music
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og det var noget helt enestående musik,
02:19
and at the very end of the recording,
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og allersidst i optagelsen
02:22
there was a dreadful screeching sound.
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havde der været en forfærdelig hyletone.
02:24
And then he added, really quite emotionally,
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Og så tilføjede han, ganske rørt,
02:26
it ruined the whole experience.
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at det havde ødelagt hele oplevelsen.
02:30
But it hadn't.
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Men det havde det ikke.
02:32
What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.
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Det, der var blevet ødelagt, var erindringen om oplevelsen.
02:35
He had had the experience.
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Oplevelsen havde han jo haft.
02:37
He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.
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Han havde haft 20 minutters enestående musik.
02:39
They counted for nothing
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Men de betød ikke noget,
02:41
because he was left with a memory;
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for han sad tilbage med en erindring,
02:44
the memory was ruined,
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erindringen var ødelagt,
02:46
and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.
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og erindringen var det eneste, han kunne beholde.
02:49
What this is telling us, really,
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Hvad dette fortæller os er,
02:52
is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people
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at vi kan opfatte os selv og andre mennesker
02:54
in terms of two selves.
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som bestående af to selv.
02:56
There is an experiencing self,
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Der er det oplevende selv,
02:59
who lives in the present
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som lever i nutiden
03:01
and knows the present,
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og kender til nutiden.
03:03
is capable of re-living the past,
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Det kan genopleve fortiden,
03:05
but basically it has only the present.
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men har stort set kun adgang til nutiden.
03:08
It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches --
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Det er det oplevende selv, som lægen henvender sig til –
03:11
you know, when the doctor asks,
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altså, når lægen spørger,
03:12
"Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"
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"Gør det ondt, når jeg rører dig her?"
03:16
And then there is a remembering self,
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Og så er der det erindrende selv,
03:19
and the remembering self is the one that keeps score,
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som er det, der holder regnskab
03:23
and maintains the story of our life,
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og vedligeholder vores livshistorie.
03:25
and it's the one that the doctor approaches
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Og det er dette selv, som lægen henvender sig til,
03:28
in asking the question,
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når han spørger,
03:30
"How have you been feeling lately?"
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"Hvordan har du haft det i den seneste tid?"
03:33
or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.
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eller "Hvordan gik turen til Albanien?" og den slags.
03:36
Those are two very different entities,
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Det er to vidt forskellige størrelser,
03:39
the experiencing self and the remembering self,
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det oplevende selv og det erindrende selv,
03:42
and getting confused between them is part of the mess
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og forvirringen omkring disse to bidrager til det rod,
03:46
about the notion of happiness.
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der plager begrebet lykke.
03:49
Now, the remembering self
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Det erindrende selv
03:52
is a storyteller.
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fortæller historier.
03:55
And that really starts with a basic response of our memories --
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Og det starter med en aktivering af vores erindringer.
03:59
it starts immediately.
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Det starter øjeblikkeligt.
04:01
We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.
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Vi fortæller ikke kun historier, når vi rent faktisk fortæller historier.
04:04
Our memory tells us stories,
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Vores hukommelse fortæller os historier,
04:07
that is, what we get to keep from our experiences
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og det, vi står tilbage med efter en oplevelse,
04:09
is a story.
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er en historie.
04:11
And let me begin with one example.
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Lad mig begynde med et eksempel.
04:16
This is an old study.
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Det er en gammel undersøgelse.
04:18
Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.
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Disse patienter havde undergået et smertefuldt indgreb.
04:21
I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days,
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Jeg skal ikke gå i detaljer. Det er ikke smertefuldt nu om dage,
04:24
but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.
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men det var det, da undersøgelsen blev foretaget i 1990erne.
04:28
They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.
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De blev spurgt om at bedømme smerteniveauet hvert 60. sekund.
04:31
Here are two patients,
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Og her har vi så to patienter.
04:34
those are their recordings.
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Det er, hvad de rapporterede.
04:36
And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"
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Og så kan man spørge, "Hvem led mest?"
04:39
And it's a very easy question.
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Det er jo et let spørgsmål.
04:41
Clearly, Patient B suffered more --
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Det er åbenlyst, at patient B led mest.
04:43
his colonoscopy was longer,
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Hans koloskopi varede længere,
04:45
and every minute of pain that Patient A had,
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og hvert smertefulde minut, som patient A oplevede,
04:48
Patient B had, and more.
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oplevede patient B også, og mere til.
04:51
But now there is another question:
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Men så kan man yderligere spørge,
04:54
"How much did these patients think they suffered?"
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"Hvor meget mente patienterne selv, de led?"
04:57
And here is a surprise.
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Og svaret er overraskende:
04:59
The surprise is that Patient A
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For det viser sig, at patient A
05:01
had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy
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havde en meget værre erindring om koloskopien
05:04
than Patient B.
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end patient B.
05:06
The stories of the colonoscopies were different,
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De to koloskopihistorier var forskellige,
05:09
and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.
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og fordi slutningen er vigtig for enhver historie -
05:15
And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great --
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og idet ingen af disse historier ellers er synderligt inspirerende -
05:18
but one of them is this distinct ... (Laughter)
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er der en af dem, der er særligt...
05:22
but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.
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...en af dem, der er meget værre end den anden.
05:25
And the one that is worse
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Og den, der er værst,
05:27
is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end;
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er den, hvor smerteniveauet var på sit højeste helt til sidst.
05:30
it's a bad story.
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Det er en slem historie.
05:32
How do we know that?
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Hvordan ved vi så det?
05:34
Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy,
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Vi spurgte disse personer lige efter deres koloskopi,
05:37
and much later, too,
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og igen meget senere,
05:38
"How bad was the whole thing, in total?"
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"Hvor slem var oplevelsen som helhed?"
05:40
And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.
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og det var meget værre for A end for B i erindringen.
05:44
Now this is a direct conflict
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Dette er et udtryk for en direkte konflikt
05:46
between the experiencing self and the remembering self.
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mellem det oplevende selv og det erindrende selv.
05:49
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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Fra det oplevende selvs synspunkt
05:52
clearly, B had a worse time.
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havde B det helt klart værst.
05:54
Now, what you could do with Patient A,
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Hvad man kunne have gjort med patient A,
05:57
and we actually ran clinical experiments,
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og vi har faktisk foretaget kliniske undersøgelser,
06:00
and it has been done, and it does work --
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hvor vi gjorde sådan, og det virkede...
06:02
you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A
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Man kunne forlænge patient A's koloskopi,
06:07
by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.
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ved at lade røret blive siddende uden at bevæge det for meget.
06:10
That will cause the patient
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På den måde oplever patienten
06:13
to suffer, but just a little
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ubehag, men kun en lille smule,
06:16
and much less than before.
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og meget mindre end tidligere i forløbet.
06:18
And if you do that for a couple of minutes,
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Og hvis man gør det i et par minutter,
06:20
you have made the experiencing self
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har man gjort forløbet værre
06:22
of Patient A worse off,
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for patient A's oplevende selv,
06:24
and you have the remembering self of Patient A
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men for patientens erindrende selv
06:27
a lot better off,
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har man gjort oplevelsen meget bedre,
06:29
because now you have endowed Patient A
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for nu har man givet patient A
06:31
with a better story
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en bedre historie
06:33
about his experience.
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om hans oplevelse.
06:36
What defines a story?
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Det, der definerer en historie -
06:39
And that is true of the stories
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hvad enten det er de historier,
06:41
that memory delivers for us,
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som erindringen leverer,
06:43
and it's also true of the stories that we make up.
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eller de historier, vi selv finder på -
06:46
What defines a story are changes,
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det, der definerer en historie, er ændringer,
06:50
significant moments and endings.
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betydningsfulde øjeblikke og slutninger.
06:53
Endings are very, very important
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Slutninger er meget, meget vigtige,
06:55
and, in this case, the ending dominated.
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og i dette tilfælde var slutningen dominerende.
06:59
Now, the experiencing self
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Det oplevende selv
07:01
lives its life continuously.
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lever livet i en lige linie.
07:04
It has moments of experience, one after the other.
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Det oplever det ene øjeblik efter det andet.
07:07
And you can ask: What happens to these moments?
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Men hvad sker der med disse øjeblikke?
07:10
And the answer is really straightforward:
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Svaret er lige til:
07:12
They are lost forever.
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De går tabt for evigt.
07:14
I mean, most of the moments of our life --
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De fleste af livets øjeblikke -
07:16
and I calculated, you know, the psychological present
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og regner man på det, altså den psykologiske nutid,
07:19
is said to be about three seconds long;
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så er den tre sekunder i udstrækning,
07:21
that means that, you know,
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hvilket altså betyder,
07:23
in a life there are about 600 million of them;
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at der er omtrent 600 millioner i et helt liv.
07:25
in a month, there are about 600,000 --
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Det bliver til 600.000 om måneden.
07:28
most of them don't leave a trace.
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De fleste af dem forsvinder sporløst.
07:32
Most of them are completely ignored
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De fleste af dem bliver helt ignoreret
07:34
by the remembering self.
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af det erindrende selv.
07:36
And yet, somehow you get the sense
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Og dog sidder man tilbage med en følelse af,
07:38
that they should count,
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at de burde tælle for noget.
07:40
that what happens during these moments of experience
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At det, vi oplever i de øjeblikke,
07:43
is our life.
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er vores liv.
07:45
It's the finite resource that we're spending
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Det er den begrænsede ressource, som vi bruger af,
07:47
while we're on this earth.
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mens vi er på jorden.
07:49
And how to spend it
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Hvordan vi bruger den
07:51
would seem to be relevant,
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synes at måtte være relevant,
07:53
but that is not the story
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men det er ikke den historie,
07:55
that the remembering self keeps for us.
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som vores erindrende selv vedligeholder.
07:57
So we have the remembering self
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Så vi har altså det erindrende selv
07:59
and the experiencing self,
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og det oplevende selv,
08:01
and they're really quite distinct.
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og de er ganske forskellige.
08:03
The biggest difference between them
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De adskiller sig især fra hinanden
08:05
is in the handling of time.
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på måden, hvorpå de håndterer tid.
08:08
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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Fra det oplevende selvs synspunkt,
08:11
if you have a vacation,
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hvis du er på ferie,
08:13
and the second week is just as good as the first,
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og den anden uge er lige så god som den første,
08:16
then the two-week vacation
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så er en ferie på to uger
08:19
is twice as good as the one-week vacation.
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dobbelt så god som en enkelt uges ferie.
08:22
That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.
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Men sådan fungerer det erindrende selv ikke.
08:25
For the remembering self, a two-week vacation
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For det erindrende selv er to ugers ferie
08:27
is barely better than the one-week vacation
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ikke nævneværdigt bedre end en uges ferie,
08:30
because there are no new memories added.
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for der tilføjes ikke yderligere erindringer.
08:32
You have not changed the story.
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Du har ikke ændret på historien.
08:35
And in this way,
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Og på den måde er det tiden,
08:37
time is actually the critical variable
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der er den vigtigste variable,
08:40
that distinguishes a remembering self
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der adskiller et erindrende selv
08:43
from an experiencing self;
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fra et oplevende selv.
08:45
time has very little impact on the story.
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Tiden er af lille betydning for denne historie.
08:49
Now, the remembering self does more
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Det erindrende selv gør mere
08:52
than remember and tell stories.
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end bare at huske og fortælle historier.
08:54
It is actually the one that makes decisions
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Det er faktisk dette selv, det træffer beslutninger,
08:58
because, if you have a patient who has had, say,
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for hvis du har en patient, der har haft
09:00
two colonoscopies with two different surgeons
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to koloskopier hos to forskellige kirurger,
09:03
and is deciding which of them to choose,
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og han skal vælge mellem de to,
09:06
then the one that chooses
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så vælger han den,
09:09
is the one that has the memory that is less bad,
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der er ansvarlig for hans mindst dårlige erindring,
09:13
and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.
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og det er denne kirurg, der bliver valgt.
09:15
The experiencing self
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Det oplevende selv
09:17
has no voice in this choice.
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har ikke noget at skulle have sagt.
09:20
We actually don't choose between experiences,
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Vi vælger ikke mellem oplevelser,
09:23
we choose between memories of experiences.
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men mellem erindringer om oplevelser.
09:26
And even when we think about the future,
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Og selv når vi tænker på fremtiden,
09:29
we don't think of our future normally as experiences.
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så er det ikke en fremtid bestående af oplevelser.
09:32
We think of our future
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Vi tænker på vores fremtid
09:34
as anticipated memories.
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som forventede erindringer.
09:37
And basically you can look at this,
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Og man kan således betragte dette
09:39
you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self,
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som en slags erindrende selvs tyranni,
09:42
and you can think of the remembering self
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og man kan sige, at det erindrende selv
09:44
sort of dragging the experiencing self
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nærmest trækker det oplevende selv
09:46
through experiences that
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gennem oplevelser,
09:48
the experiencing self doesn't need.
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som det erindrende ikke selv har brug for.
09:50
I have that sense that
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Jeg har indtryk af,
09:52
when we go on vacations
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at vi, når vi skal på ferie -
09:54
this is very frequently the case;
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det er ofte sådan, det foregår -
09:56
that is, we go on vacations,
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altså, vi tager på ferie,
09:58
to a very large extent,
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i stor udstrækning,
10:00
in the service of our remembering self.
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i vores erindrende selvs tjeneste.
10:03
And this is a bit hard to justify I think.
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Og det er svært at retfærdiggøre.
10:06
I mean, how much do we consume our memories?
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Jeg mener, hvor ofte forbruger vi vores erindringer?
10:09
That is one of the explanations
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Dette er en af de forklaringer,
10:11
that is given for the dominance
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man ofte hører givet
10:13
of the remembering self.
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på det erindrende selvs dominans.
10:15
And when I think about that, I think about a vacation
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Og når jeg tænker over det, så tænker jeg
10:17
we had in Antarctica a few years ago,
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på en ferie til Antarktis for et par år siden,
10:20
which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had,
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som var den bedste ferie, jeg nogensinde har haft,
10:23
and I think of it relatively often,
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og jeg tænker på den relativt ofte,
10:25
relative to how much I think of other vacations.
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sammenlignet med andre ferier.
10:27
And I probably have consumed
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Jeg har nok forbrugt mine erindringer
10:31
my memories of that three-week trip, I would say,
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om de tre ugers ferie
10:33
for about 25 minutes in the last four years.
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i omkring 25 minutter over de sidste fire år.
10:36
Now, if I had ever opened the folder
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Havde jeg hentet albummet
10:39
with the 600 pictures in it,
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med de 600 billeder fra turen,
10:42
I would have spent another hour.
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så havde jeg måske brugt en time mere.
10:44
Now, that is three weeks,
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Så vi har altså tre uger,
10:46
and that is at most an hour and a half.
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sammenlignet med halvanden time.
10:48
There seems to be a discrepancy.
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Der er en uoverensstemmelse.
10:50
Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know,
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Det er måske lidt ekstremt,
10:52
in how little appetite I have for consuming memories,
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hvor lidt appetit jeg har på mine erindringer,
10:55
but even if you do more of this,
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men selvom man er mere tilbøjelig til den slags,
10:58
there is a genuine question:
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kan man stadig spørge,
11:01
Why do we put so much weight on memory
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hvorfor vi lægger så stor vægt på erindringer,
11:05
relative to the weight that we put on experiences?
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sammenlignet med de faktiske oplevelser?
11:08
So I want you to think
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I kan nu fundere lidt
11:10
about a thought experiment.
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over et tankeeksperiment.
11:13
Imagine that for your next vacation,
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Forestil jer, at I på jeres næste ferie ved,
11:15
you know that at the end of the vacation
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at når ferien er overstået,
11:18
all your pictures will be destroyed,
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så bliver alle jeres billeder destrueret,
11:21
and you'll get an amnesic drug
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og jeres erindringer bliver slettet,
11:23
so that you won't remember anything.
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så I ikke husker noget.
11:25
Now, would you choose the same vacation? (Laughter)
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Ville I holde ferie på samme måde?
11:29
And if you would choose a different vacation,
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Hvis I ville vælge en anderledes ferie,
11:34
there is a conflict between your two selves,
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opstår der en konflikt mellem jeres to selv,
11:36
and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict,
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og I ville være tvunget til at træffe afgørelse i den konflikt,
11:39
and it's actually not at all obvious, because
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hvilket faktisk ikke er helt så ligetil,
11:42
if you think in terms of time,
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for hvis I tænker på det tidsmæssige,
11:45
then you get one answer,
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får I ét svar,
11:48
and if you think in terms of memories,
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og hvis I tænker på erindringerne,
11:51
you might get another answer.
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får I måske et andet svar.
11:53
Why do we pick the vacations we do
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Hvorfor vi vælger de ferier, vi gør,
11:56
is a problem that confronts us
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er et problem, der konfronterer os
11:59
with a choice between the two selves.
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med et valg mellem de to selv.
12:01
Now, the two selves
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Disse to selv er ansvarlige
12:04
bring up two notions of happiness.
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for to forestillinger om lykken.
12:06
There are really two concepts of happiness
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Der er således tale om to lykkebegreber,
12:08
that we can apply, one per self.
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som vi kan tage i brug, et per selv.
12:11
So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?
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Så man kan spørge, "Hvor lykkelig er det oplevende selv?"
12:16
And then you would ask: How happy are the moments
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Og derefter, "Hvor lykkelige er de øjeblikke,
12:18
in the experiencing self's life?
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der udgør det oplevende selvs liv?"
12:21
And they're all -- happiness for moments
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Og lykkeværdien i et enkelt øjeblik
12:23
is a fairly complicated process.
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er en ret kompliceret størrelse.
12:25
What are the emotions that can be measured?
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Hvilke følelser kan man måle på?
12:28
And, by the way, now we are capable
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Nu er vi forresten i stand til
12:30
of getting a pretty good idea
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at forstå, hvad det vil sige
12:32
of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.
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for det oplevende selv at være lykkelig over længere tid.
12:38
If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self,
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Hvis man spørger til det erindrende selvs lykke,
12:41
it's a completely different thing.
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er det en helt anderledes størrelse.
12:43
This is not about how happily a person lives.
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Det handler ikke om, hvor lykkeligt livet leves.
12:46
It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is
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Det handler om, hvor tilfreds en person er,
12:49
when that person thinks about her life.
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når denne person betragter sit eget liv.
12:53
Very different notion.
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Et helt andet begreb.
12:55
Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions
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Hvis man ikke skelner mellem disse begreb,
12:58
is going to mess up the study of happiness,
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vil det forkludre undersøgelsen af lykken.
13:00
and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being,
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Jeg tilhører selv en gruppe fra velværens skole,
13:03
who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time
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der har forkludret studiet af lykken i lang tid
13:07
in precisely this way.
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på præcis denne måde.
13:09
The distinction between the
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Denne skelnen mellem
13:11
happiness of the experiencing self
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det oplevende selvs lykke,
13:13
and the satisfaction of the remembering self
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og det erindrende selvs tilfredshed
13:16
has been recognized in recent years,
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er blevet anerkendt i de seneste år,
13:18
and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.
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og man forsøger nu at måle på de to uafhængigt af hinanden.
13:21
The Gallup Organization has a world poll
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Gallup foretog en global meningsmåling
13:24
where more than half a million people
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blandt flere end en halv million mennesker.
13:26
have been asked questions
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De blev stillet spørgsmål om,
13:28
about what they think of their life
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hvad de synes om deres liv,
13:30
and about their experiences,
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og om deres oplevelser.
13:32
and there have been other efforts along those lines.
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Og der har været flere lignende tiltag.
13:35
So in recent years, we have begun to learn
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I de seneste år er vi begyndt
13:38
about the happiness of the two selves.
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at lære om de to selvs lykkebegreber.
13:41
And the main lesson I think that we have learned
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Den vigtigste erkendelse har været,
13:44
is they are really different.
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at de er meget forskellige.
13:46
You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life,
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Selvom man ved, hvor tilfreds en person er med sit liv,
13:51
and that really doesn't teach you much
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siger det ikke særlig meget om,
13:53
about how happily they're living their life,
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hvor lykkeligt de lever deres liv,
13:56
and vice versa.
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og omvendt.
13:58
Just to give you a sense of the correlation,
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Hvad angår den statistiske korrelation,
14:00
the correlation is about .5.
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så er den omkring 0,5.
14:02
What that means is if you met somebody,
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Det betyder, at hvis du møder nogen,
14:05
and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall,"
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og du får at vide, at vedkomnes far er 183cm høj,
14:09
how much would you know about his height?
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hvad siger det så om personens egen højde?
14:11
Well, you would know something about his height,
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Ja, du ved måske en lille smule om hans højde,
14:13
but there's a lot of uncertainty.
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men der er meget stor usikkerhed.
14:15
You have that much uncertainty.
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Der er rigtig meget usikkerhed.
14:17
If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten,
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Hvis en person bedømmer deres liv til otte ud af ti,
14:21
you have a lot of uncertainty
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så er det meget usikkert,
14:23
about how happy they are
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hvor glade de er
14:25
with their experiencing self.
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for deres oplevende selv.
14:27
So the correlation is low.
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Så korrelationen er lav.
14:29
We know something about what controls
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Vi ved lidt om, hvad der styrer,
14:32
satisfaction of the happiness self.
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hvor tilfreds det lykkelige selv er.
14:34
We know that money is very important,
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Vi ved, at penge er meget vigtige,
14:36
goals are very important.
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og at mål er meget vigtige.
14:38
We know that happiness is mainly
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Vi ved at lykken mest af alt handler om
14:42
being satisfied with people that we like,
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at være tilfreds med mennesker, vi kan lide,
14:45
spending time with people that we like.
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og at omgås folk, vi kan lide.
14:48
There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.
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Der er andre glæder, men disse dominerer.
14:50
So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves,
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Så vil man maksimere lykken for begge selv,
14:53
you are going to end up
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ender man med
14:55
doing very different things.
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at gøre forskellige ting.
14:57
The bottom line of what I've said here
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Det korte og det lange er,
14:59
is that we really should not think of happiness
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at vi ikke bør tænke på lykken
15:03
as a substitute for well-being.
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som en erstatning for velvære.
15:05
It is a completely different notion.
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De er et helt andet begreb.
15:08
Now, very quickly,
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Man kan indskyde,
15:11
another reason we cannot think straight about happiness
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at en anden grund til, vi ikke tænker klart over lykken er,
15:15
is that we do not attend to the same things
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at vi ikke fokuserer på de samme ting,
15:22
when we think about life, and we actually live.
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når vi tænker over livet, og når vi rent faktisk lever.
15:25
So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California,
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Så hvis man spørger, hvor lykkelige folk er i Calfornien,
15:30
you are not going to get to the correct answer.
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får man ikke det rigtige svar.
15:33
When you ask that question,
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Spørger man således,
15:35
you think people must be happier in California
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får man indtryk af, at folk er lykkeligere i Californien,
15:37
if, say, you live in Ohio.
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hvis man for eksempel bor i Ohio.
15:39
(Laughter)
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(publikum ler)
15:41
And what happens is
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Det, der sker, er,
15:44
when you think about living in California,
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at når man tænker på at bo i Californien,
15:48
you are thinking of the contrast
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tænker man på kontrasten
15:50
between California and other places,
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mellem California og andre steder,
15:53
and that contrast, say, is in climate.
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på områder som for eksempel klima.
15:55
Well, it turns out that climate
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Men det viser sig, at klima
15:57
is not very important to the experiencing self
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ikke er særlig vigtigt for det oplevende selv
16:00
and it's not even very important to the reflective self
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og ikke engang for det reflekterende selv,
16:03
that decides how happy people are.
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der bestemmer, hvor lykkelige folk er.
16:06
But now, because the reflective self is in charge,
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Men fordi det reflekterende selv er i førersædet,
16:10
you may end up -- some people may end up
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er der måske nogen, der ender med
16:12
moving to California.
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at flytte til Californien.
16:14
And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen
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Og det er interessant at se, hvad der sker med folk,
16:17
to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.
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der flytter til Californien i håb om at blive lykkeligere.
16:20
Well, their experiencing self
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Altså, deres oplevende selv
16:22
is not going to get happier.
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bliver ikke lykkeligere.
16:24
We know that.
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Så meget ved vi.
16:27
But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier,
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Men der vil ske det, at de tror de er lykkeligere,
16:30
because, when they think about it,
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for når de tænker over det,
16:34
they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio,
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bliver de mindet om, hvor forfærdeligt vejret er i Ohio.
16:38
and they will feel they made the right decision.
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Så de tror, de har truffet det rigtige valg.
16:41
It is very difficult
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Det er virkelig svært,
16:43
to think straight about well-being,
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at tænke klart over velvære,
16:45
and I hope I have given you a sense
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og jeg håber, jeg har givet jer en idé om,
16:48
of how difficult it is.
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hvor svært det er.
16:50
Thank you.
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Tak skal I have.
16:52
(Applause)
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(publikum klapper)
16:55
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.
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Tak. Jeg har et spørgsmål.
16:59
Thank you so much.
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Mange tak skal du have.
17:01
Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago,
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Da vi snakkede sammen for et par uger siden,
17:05
you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result
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nævnte du et interessant resultat
17:08
came out of that Gallup survey.
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af den Gallupundersøgelse.
17:10
Is that something you can share
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Er det noget, du kan dele med os,
17:12
since you do have a few moments left now?
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når nu vi har lidt tid til overs?
17:14
Daniel Kahneman: Sure.
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Javist.
17:16
I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey
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Det mest interessante resultat af den Gallupundersøgelse
17:19
is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.
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var et tal, som vi bestemt ikke havde forudset.
17:22
We found that with respect to the happiness
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Med hensyn til følelsen af lykke
17:24
of the experiencing self.
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for det oplevende selv,
17:27
When we looked at how feelings,
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når vi så kiggede på, hvordan følelser
17:32
vary with income.
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varierer med indkomst
17:34
And it turns out that, below an income
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viste det sig, at havde man en indkomst
17:37
of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans --
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under 60.000 dollars om året, for amerikanere -
17:40
and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000,
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og her snakker vi om cirka 600.000 amerikanere,
17:43
so it's a large representative sample --
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altså en stor, repræsentativ gruppe -
17:45
below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...
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Med en indkomst under 600.000 dollars årligt...
17:47
CA: 60,000.
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60.000
17:49
DK: 60,000.
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Ja, 60.000.
17:51
(Laughter)
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(publikum ler)
17:53
60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy,
395
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...60.000 dollars om året, er folk ulykkelige,
17:57
and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.
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og de bliver gradvis mere ulykkelige, jo fattigere de er.
18:00
Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.
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Over den grænse så vi en helt flad kurve.
18:03
I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat.
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Jeg har sjældent set fladere kurver.
18:06
Clearly, what is happening is
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Det, der foregår, er helt sikkert,
18:08
money does not buy you experiential happiness,
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at oplevelseslykke ikke kan købes for penge,
18:11
but lack of money certainly buys you misery,
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men mangel på samme fører helt sikkert til elendighed.
18:14
and we can measure that misery
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Og denne elendighed kan måles
18:16
very, very clearly.
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helt, helt tydeligt.
18:18
In terms of the other self, the remembering self,
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Hvad angår det erindrende selv,
18:21
you get a different story.
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så er historien en anden.
18:23
The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.
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Jo flere penge man har, jo mere tilfreds er man.
18:26
That does not hold for emotions.
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Det gælder ikke følelser.
18:28
CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about
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Men Danny, den amerikanske drøm handler jo om
18:31
life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.
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livet, friheden og stræben efter lykke.
18:34
If people took seriously that finding,
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Hvis folk virkelig tog disse resultater til sig,
18:38
I mean, it seems to turn upside down
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så ville det jo vende vores forestillinger
18:41
everything we believe about, like for example,
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om for eksempel skattepolitik
18:43
taxation policy and so forth.
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helt på hovedet.
18:45
Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally,
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Tror du, det er muligt, at politikere og befolkningen generelt
18:48
would take a finding like that seriously
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ville tage sådanne resultater seriøst,
18:51
and run public policy based on it?
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og føre politik ud fra dem?
18:53
DK: You know I think that there is recognition
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Der er en vis anerkendelse
18:55
of the role of happiness research in public policy.
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af lykkeforskningens rolle inden for politik.
18:58
The recognition is going to be slow in the United States,
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Anerkendelsen vil være lang tid undervejs i USA,
19:00
no question about that,
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det er der ikke tvivl om,
19:02
but in the U.K., it is happening,
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men i Storbritannien findes den allerede,
19:04
and in other countries it is happening.
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og i andre lande findes den allerede.
19:06
People are recognizing that they ought
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Det går op for folk, at de burde
19:09
to be thinking of happiness
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tage lykken med i betragtningerne
19:11
when they think of public policy.
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i forbindelse med politik.
19:13
It's going to take a while,
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Det kommer til at tage tid,
19:15
and people are going to debate
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og folk vil skulle overveje,
19:18
whether they want to study experience happiness,
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om de vil studere oplevelseslykke,
19:20
or whether they want to study life evaluation,
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eller om de vil studere livsevaluering,
19:22
so we need to have that debate fairly soon.
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så vi bør tage den debat rimelig snart.
19:25
How to enhance happiness
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Spørgsmålet om forbedringer af lykken
19:27
goes very different ways depending on how you think,
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fører i forskellige retninger, afhængigt af hvordan man tænker,
19:30
and whether you think of the remembering self
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og om man tænker på det erindrende selv,
19:32
or you think of the experiencing self.
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eller på det oplevende selv.
19:34
This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.
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Det kommer til at have politisk betydning i fremtiden.
19:37
In the United States, efforts are being made
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I USA er man gået i gang med
19:40
to measure the experience happiness of the population.
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at måle på befolkningens oplevelseslykke.
19:43
This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two,
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Jeg tror, at det inden for det næste årti eller to
19:46
part of national statistics.
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bliver en del af de nationale statistikker.
19:48
CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be --
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Det forekommer mig, at det er, eller at det burde være
19:52
the most interesting policy discussion to track
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den mest interessante politiske diskussion
19:54
over the next few years.
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at følge i de kommende år.
19:56
Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.
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Du skal have tak for at have opfundet adfærdsøkonomien.
19:58
Thank you, Danny Kahneman.
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Tak til Danny Kahneman.
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