The riddle of experience vs. memory | Daniel Kahneman

1,377,866 views ・ 2010-03-01

TED


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Prevoditelj: Ando Saina Recezent: Andrija Bitunjac
00:15
Everybody talks about happiness these days.
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Svi govore o sreći ovih dana.
00:18
I had somebody count the number of books
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Dao sam prebrojiti knjige
00:21
with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years
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s naslovom "sreća", izdanih u posljednjih pet godina;
00:24
and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.
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odustali su nakon četrdesete - bilo ih je mnogo više.
00:29
There is a huge wave of interest in happiness,
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Postoji široki interes za temu "sreća",
00:32
among researchers.
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među istraživačima.
00:34
There is a lot of happiness coaching.
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Ima mnogo podučavanja sreće.
00:36
Everybody would like to make people happier.
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Svi bi zapravo htjeli učiniti ljude sretnijima.
00:38
But in spite of all this flood of work,
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No unatoč svom uloženom trudu,
00:42
there are several cognitive traps
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postoji nekoliko kognitivnih zamki
00:44
that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight
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koje gotovo onemogućuju donošenje jasnog suda
00:47
about happiness.
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o sreći.
00:49
And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.
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Moj govor danas biti će uglavnom o takvim kognitivnim zamkama.
00:52
This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness,
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To je primjenjivo i za laike koji razmišljaju o vlastitoj sreći,
00:55
and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness,
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ali i za učenjake koji razmišljaju o sreći općenito,
00:58
because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.
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jer se ispostavlja kako smo i mi u tome izgubljeni kao i svi ostali.
01:02
The first of these traps
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Prva od zamki jest
01:04
is a reluctance to admit complexity.
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nevoljkost za priznanjem kompleksnosti problema.
01:07
It turns out that the word "happiness"
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Ispostavilo se da riječ sreća
01:10
is just not a useful word anymore,
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jednostavno više nije praktična riječ
01:13
because we apply it to too many different things.
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jer ju koristimo za niz različitih značenja.
01:16
I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it,
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Smatram kako postoji jedno određeno značenje na koje bismo ju mogli ograničiti
01:19
but by and large,
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ali,
01:21
this is something that we'll have to give up
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tu je nešto čega bismo se trebali odreći
01:23
and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view
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i usvojiti mnogo složeniji pogled
01:27
of what well-being is.
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oko toga što je blagostanje.
01:29
The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory;
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Druga zamka jest zbunjenost između iskustva i pamćenja:
01:33
basically, it's between being happy in your life,
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radi se o tome jeste li u životu sretni
01:36
and being happy about your life
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i sretni oko svog života
01:38
or happy with your life.
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ili sretni sa svojim životom.
01:40
And those are two very different concepts,
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To su dva vrlo različita koncepta,
01:42
and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.
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koji su sjedinjeni u pojmu sreće.
01:45
And the third is the focusing illusion,
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A treća je zamka iluzija koncentracije
01:48
and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance
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i podrazumjeva nesretnu činjenicu zbog koje ne možemo misliti niti o jednoj okolnosti
01:51
that affects well-being
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koja utječe na blagostanje
01:53
without distorting its importance.
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bez da iskrivimo samu njenu važnost.
01:55
I mean, this is a real cognitive trap.
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Tvrdim da je to prava kognitivna zamka.
01:58
There's just no way of getting it right.
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Jednostavno nema načina da ju se zaobiđe.
02:01
Now, I'd like to start with an example
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Sada bih želio početi s primjerom
02:03
of somebody who had a question-and-answer session
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jedne osobe koja je rješavala anketu
02:08
after one of my lectures reported a story,
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nakon jednog mojeg predavanja i ispričala mi slijedeću stvar.
02:12
and that was a story --
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(nejasno...)
02:13
He said he'd been listening to a symphony,
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Rekao je da je slušao simfoniju,
02:16
and it was absolutely glorious music
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glazba je bila zaista zanosna,
02:19
and at the very end of the recording,
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i na samom kraju snimke,
02:22
there was a dreadful screeching sound.
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začulo se strašno škripanje.
02:24
And then he added, really quite emotionally,
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Onda mi je rekao, poprilično emotivno,
02:26
it ruined the whole experience.
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da mu je to zapravo upropastilo cijeli doživljaj.
02:30
But it hadn't.
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Ali zapravo i nije.
02:32
What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.
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Ono što je upropašteno bilo je samo sjećanje na to iskustvo.
02:35
He had had the experience.
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Imao je to iskustvo.
02:37
He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.
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Odslušao je 20 minuta zanosne glazbe.
02:39
They counted for nothing
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Ali kao da i nije
02:41
because he was left with a memory;
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jer njemu je ostalo samo sjećanje,
02:44
the memory was ruined,
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upropašteno sjećanje,
02:46
and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.
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i to je jedino što mu je zapravo ostalo od svega.
02:49
What this is telling us, really,
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To nam zapravo govori,
02:52
is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people
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da bismo o samima sebi i ostalim ljudima mogli misliti
02:54
in terms of two selves.
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kao o dvaju jastvima.
02:56
There is an experiencing self,
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Postoji iskustveno jastvo
02:59
who lives in the present
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koje živi u sadašnjosti
03:01
and knows the present,
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i poznaje sadašnjost,
03:03
is capable of re-living the past,
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sposobno je proživljavati prošlost,
03:05
but basically it has only the present.
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ali zapravo ima samo sadašnjost.
03:08
It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches --
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Liječnik pristupa iskustvenom jastvu
03:11
you know, when the doctor asks,
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znate, kada liječnik upita,
03:12
"Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"
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"Boli li kada Vas ovdje dotaknem?"
03:16
And then there is a remembering self,
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A imamo i pamteće jastvo,
03:19
and the remembering self is the one that keeps score,
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i upravo je to ono koje za nas bilježi sve
03:23
and maintains the story of our life,
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i održava priču o našem životu,
03:25
and it's the one that the doctor approaches
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i to je jastvo kojem liječnik pristupa
03:28
in asking the question,
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s pitanjem,
03:30
"How have you been feeling lately?"
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"Kako se osjećate u zadnje vrijeme?"
03:33
or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.
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ili "Kako je bilo vaše putovanje u Albaniju?" ili nešto slično.
03:36
Those are two very different entities,
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To su dva različita entiteta,
03:39
the experiencing self and the remembering self,
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iskustveno i pamteće jastvo
03:42
and getting confused between them is part of the mess
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i ako se oko njih zabunimo - to je dio frke
03:46
about the notion of happiness.
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oko pojma sreće.
03:49
Now, the remembering self
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Pamteće jastvo
03:52
is a storyteller.
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je pripovijedač.
03:55
And that really starts with a basic response of our memories --
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Sve to zapravo počinje sa jednostavnim odgovorom našeg pamćenja -
03:59
it starts immediately.
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počinje odmah.
04:01
We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.
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Mi ne pričamo priče samo kada to želimo.
04:04
Our memory tells us stories,
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Naše pamćenje nam priča priče,
04:07
that is, what we get to keep from our experiences
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odnosno, ono što nam ostaje od naših iskustava
04:09
is a story.
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jest zapravo priča.
04:11
And let me begin with one example.
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Dozvolite da iznesem jedan primjer.
04:16
This is an old study.
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Radi se o starom istraživanju.
04:18
Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.
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Ono su stvarni pacijenti koji su podvrgnuti bolnoj proceduri.
04:21
I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days,
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Neću ići u detalje. Danas, to više nije bolno,
04:24
but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.
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ali je bilo u vrijeme kada je istraživanje provedeno 1990-ih.
04:28
They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.
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Ispitanici su skavih 60 sekundi trebali javljati o boli koju osjećaju.
04:31
Here are two patients,
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Evo priče dvaju pacijenata.
04:34
those are their recordings.
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Ovo su njihove snimke.
04:36
And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"
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I kada bi Vas se pitalo, "Tko je od njih više patio?"
04:39
And it's a very easy question.
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Pitanje je vrlo jednostavno.
04:41
Clearly, Patient B suffered more --
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Jasno je da je pacijent B patio više.
04:43
his colonoscopy was longer,
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Njegova je kolonoskopija trajala duže,
04:45
and every minute of pain that Patient A had,
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i za svaku minutu boli koje je patio pacijent A
04:48
Patient B had, and more.
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pacijent B patio je jednu više.
04:51
But now there is another question:
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Ali evo sada drugog pitanja:
04:54
"How much did these patients think they suffered?"
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"Koliko ovi pacijenti misle da su patili?"
04:57
And here is a surprise.
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I evo iznenađenja:
04:59
The surprise is that Patient A
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Iznenađenje je slijedeće, pacijent A
05:01
had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy
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imao je znatno lošije sjećanje na kolonoskopiju
05:04
than Patient B.
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u odnosu na pacijenta B.
05:06
The stories of the colonoscopies were different,
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Priče ovih kolonoskopija su različite
05:09
and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.
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i zato što je krtičan dio priče upravo njen završetak -
05:15
And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great --
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a niti jedna priča sama po sebi nije inspirirajuća ili lijepa -
05:18
but one of them is this distinct ... (Laughter)
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ali jedna od njih je toliko izrazito...(smijeh)
05:22
but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.
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ali jedna od njih je izrazito lošija od druge.
05:25
And the one that is worse
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A ova koja je lošija
05:27
is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end;
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jest ona gdje je bol bila na svom vrhuncu na samom kraju priče.
05:30
it's a bad story.
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Strašna je to priča.
05:32
How do we know that?
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Kako mi to zapravo znamo?
05:34
Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy,
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Zato što smo ljude nakon kolonoskopije upitali,
05:37
and much later, too,
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i to mnogo kasnije,
05:38
"How bad was the whole thing, in total?"
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"Koliko je bila strašna cijela ta procedura?"
05:40
And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.
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i bilo je mnogo teže pacijentu A nego pacijentu B u njihovom pamćenju.
05:44
Now this is a direct conflict
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Ovo predstavlja direktan sukob
05:46
between the experiencing self and the remembering self.
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između iskustvenog jastva i pamtećeg jastva.
05:49
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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Iz perspektive iskustvenog jastva,
05:52
clearly, B had a worse time.
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jasno da je pacijent B lošije prošao.
05:54
Now, what you could do with Patient A,
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No, što se sada može sa pacijentom A,
05:57
and we actually ran clinical experiments,
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mi smo na tome proveli kliničko istraživanje,
06:00
and it has been done, and it does work --
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i to uspješno,
06:02
you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A
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mogli biste odužiti kolonoskopiju pacijentu A
06:07
by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.
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samo držeći cijev unutra bez da ju puno pomičete.
06:10
That will cause the patient
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Tako će pacijent
06:13
to suffer, but just a little
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patiti, ali samo lagano
06:16
and much less than before.
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i puno manje nego ranije.
06:18
And if you do that for a couple of minutes,
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I ako biste to radili nekoliko minuta,
06:20
you have made the experiencing self
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naštetili biste iskustvenom jastvu
06:22
of Patient A worse off,
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pacijenta A,
06:24
and you have the remembering self of Patient A
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a pamtećem jastvu pacijenta A
06:27
a lot better off,
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biste zapravo ugodili,
06:29
because now you have endowed Patient A
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jer ste pacijentu A upravo podarili
06:31
with a better story
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ljepšu priču
06:33
about his experience.
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o njegovom iskustvu.
06:36
What defines a story?
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Što određuje priču?
06:39
And that is true of the stories
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I to je slučaj s pričama
06:41
that memory delivers for us,
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koje nam pamćenje dostavlja;
06:43
and it's also true of the stories that we make up.
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i to je također istina za priče koje izmišljamo.
06:46
What defines a story are changes,
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Priču određuju promjene,
06:50
significant moments and endings.
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značajni trenuci i završetci.
06:53
Endings are very, very important
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Završetci su jako, jako važni
06:55
and, in this case, the ending dominated.
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i, u ovom slučaju, završetak priče prevladava.
06:59
Now, the experiencing self
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Iskustveno jastvo,
07:01
lives its life continuously.
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živi svoj život neprekinuto.
07:04
It has moments of experience, one after the other.
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Ono ima iskustvene trenutke, jedan za drugim.
07:07
And you can ask: What happens to these moments?
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I pitate se: Što se događa tim trenucima?
07:10
And the answer is really straightforward:
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Odgovor je doista izravan.
07:12
They are lost forever.
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Oni su izgubljeni zauvijek.
07:14
I mean, most of the moments of our life --
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Naime, većina trenutaka našeg života -
07:16
and I calculated, you know, the psychological present
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tako sam izračunao - znate, za psihološku sadašnjost
07:19
is said to be about three seconds long;
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kaže se da traje tri sekunde.
07:21
that means that, you know,
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A to znači da, kao što znate,
07:23
in a life there are about 600 million of them;
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u jednom životu, ima otprilike 600 milijuna trenutaka.
07:25
in a month, there are about 600,000 --
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U mjesec dana, ima ih oko 600,000.
07:28
most of them don't leave a trace.
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Većina ih ne ostavi niti traga.
07:32
Most of them are completely ignored
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Većinu potpuno ignorira
07:34
by the remembering self.
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pamteće jastvo.
07:36
And yet, somehow you get the sense
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Pa ipak, nekako osjećate
07:38
that they should count,
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kako bi svi oni trebali biti važni
07:40
that what happens during these moments of experience
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i da ono što se događa u tim trenucima iskustva
07:43
is our life.
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čini naš život.
07:45
It's the finite resource that we're spending
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To je ograničeno sredstvo koje trošimo
07:47
while we're on this earth.
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dok smo tu na zemlji.
07:49
And how to spend it
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Način kako ga trošiti
07:51
would seem to be relevant,
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trebalo bi biti relevantno
07:53
but that is not the story
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ali to nije priča
07:55
that the remembering self keeps for us.
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koju pamteće jastvo čuva za nas.
07:57
So we have the remembering self
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Imamo pamteće jastvo
07:59
and the experiencing self,
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i iskustveno jastvo,
08:01
and they're really quite distinct.
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i oni su poprilično različiti.
08:03
The biggest difference between them
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Najveća razlika među njima
08:05
is in the handling of time.
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jest rukovanje vremenom.
08:08
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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Iz perspektive iskustvenog jastva,
08:11
if you have a vacation,
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ako ste na odmoru,
08:13
and the second week is just as good as the first,
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i ako je drugi tjedan odmora dobar kao i prvi,
08:16
then the two-week vacation
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onda dvotjedni odmor
08:19
is twice as good as the one-week vacation.
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jest dvaput bolji od tjednog odmora.
08:22
That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.
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To uopće nije način na koji doživljava pamteće jastvo.
08:25
For the remembering self, a two-week vacation
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Za pamteće jastvo, dvotjedni odmor
08:27
is barely better than the one-week vacation
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je jedva bolji od tjednog
08:30
because there are no new memories added.
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jer nema novih sjećanja koja se stvaraju.
08:32
You have not changed the story.
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Niste promijenili priču.
08:35
And in this way,
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I na taj način,
08:37
time is actually the critical variable
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vrijeme jest zapravo kritična varijabla
08:40
that distinguishes a remembering self
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koja razlikuje pamteće jastvo
08:43
from an experiencing self;
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od iskustvenog.
08:45
time has very little impact on the story.
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Vrijeme ima jako malo utjecaja na ovu priču.
08:49
Now, the remembering self does more
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Pamteće jastvo čini više od pukog
08:52
than remember and tell stories.
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pamćenja i pripovjedanja priča.
08:54
It is actually the one that makes decisions
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Upravo ono donosi odluke
08:58
because, if you have a patient who has had, say,
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jer, ako imate pacijenta koji je imao, recimo
09:00
two colonoscopies with two different surgeons
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dvije kolonoskoije kod dva različita kirurga
09:03
and is deciding which of them to choose,
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i mora odabrati jednoga,
09:06
then the one that chooses
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tada će izabrati onoga
09:09
is the one that has the memory that is less bad,
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za kojega ima manje loše sjećanje
09:13
and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.
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i toga kiruga će odabrati.
09:15
The experiencing self
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Iskustveno jastvo
09:17
has no voice in this choice.
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nema pravo glasa pred ovim izborom.
09:20
We actually don't choose between experiences,
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Mi zapravo ne biramo među iskustvima.
09:23
we choose between memories of experiences.
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Mi biramo između sjećanja o iskustvima.
09:26
And even when we think about the future,
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Pa čak i kada mislimo o budućnosti,
09:29
we don't think of our future normally as experiences.
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mi obično ne razmišljamo o našoj budućnosti kao o iskustvu.
09:32
We think of our future
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O vlastitoj budućnosti razmišljamo
09:34
as anticipated memories.
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kao o očekivanim sjećanjima.
09:37
And basically you can look at this,
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Na to možete gledati,
09:39
you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self,
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kao na tiraniju pamtećeg jastva,
09:42
and you can think of the remembering self
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i misliti o pamtećem jastvu kako
09:44
sort of dragging the experiencing self
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na neki način povlači iskustveno jastvo
09:46
through experiences that
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kroz iskustva koja
09:48
the experiencing self doesn't need.
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iskustvenom jastvu nisu potrebna.
09:50
I have that sense that
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Imam taj osjećaj da
09:52
when we go on vacations
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kada idemo na odmor
09:54
this is very frequently the case;
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a to je vrlo često slučaj,
09:56
that is, we go on vacations,
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da idemo na odmor
09:58
to a very large extent,
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u velikom dijelu
10:00
in the service of our remembering self.
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u službi našeg pamtećeg jastva.
10:03
And this is a bit hard to justify I think.
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Vjerujem da je ovo teško opravdati.
10:06
I mean, how much do we consume our memories?
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Pitam se, koliko zapravo koristimo naša sjećanja?
10:09
That is one of the explanations
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To je jedno od objašnjenja
10:11
that is given for the dominance
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za dominaciju
10:13
of the remembering self.
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pamtećeg jastva.
10:15
And when I think about that, I think about a vacation
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I kada mislim o tome, mislim o odmoru
10:17
we had in Antarctica a few years ago,
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kojega sam proveo na Antartici prije nekoliko godina,
10:20
which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had,
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bio je to moj najbolji odmor ikada
10:23
and I think of it relatively often,
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i često o njemu mislim,
10:25
relative to how much I think of other vacations.
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u odnosu koliko mislim o ostalim odmorima.
10:27
And I probably have consumed
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I vjerojatno sam koristio
10:31
my memories of that three-week trip, I would say,
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svoja sjećanja o tom trotjednom putovanju, rekao bih,
10:33
for about 25 minutes in the last four years.
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otprilike 25 minuta tijekom posljednje četiri godine.
10:36
Now, if I had ever opened the folder
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Da sam kojim slučajem otvorio mapu
10:39
with the 600 pictures in it,
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sa 600 slika u njemu,
10:42
I would have spent another hour.
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potrošio bih sigurno još jedan sat.
10:44
Now, that is three weeks,
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Dakle to su tri tjedna,
10:46
and that is at most an hour and a half.
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na koja je utrošeno samo sat i pol.
10:48
There seems to be a discrepancy.
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Čini se da postoji određena nedosljednost.
10:50
Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know,
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Možda sam ja malo ekstreman,
10:52
in how little appetite I have for consuming memories,
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u tome koliko malo apetita imam za korištenje sjećanja,
10:55
but even if you do more of this,
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ali i kada biste ih češće koristili,
10:58
there is a genuine question:
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pojavljuje se opravdano pitanje.
11:01
Why do we put so much weight on memory
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Zašto pridajemo toliku važnost sjećanjima
11:05
relative to the weight that we put on experiences?
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u odnosu na važnost koju pridajemo iskustvu?
11:08
So I want you to think
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Želim da razmislite
11:10
about a thought experiment.
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o sljedećem misaonom eksperimentu.
11:13
Imagine that for your next vacation,
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Zamislite da za vaš slijedeći odmor
11:15
you know that at the end of the vacation
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znate kako će na kraju odmora
11:18
all your pictures will be destroyed,
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sve vaše slike biti uništene,
11:21
and you'll get an amnesic drug
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i da ćete dobiti amnezijski narkotik
11:23
so that you won't remember anything.
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pa se nećete ničega sjećati.
11:25
Now, would you choose the same vacation? (Laughter)
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Biste li odabrali taj odmor? (smijeh)
11:29
And if you would choose a different vacation,
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I kada biste izabrali drugačiji odmor,
11:34
there is a conflict between your two selves,
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javlja se sukob između vaših dvaju jastva
11:36
and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict,
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pa morate promisliti kako presuditi u tom sukobu,
11:39
and it's actually not at all obvious, because
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što nije uopće jednostavno,
11:42
if you think in terms of time,
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ako uzimate u obzir vrijeme,
11:45
then you get one answer,
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dobijete jedan odgovor.
11:48
and if you think in terms of memories,
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Ako pak uzimate u obzir sjećanja,
11:51
you might get another answer.
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mogli biste dobiti drugačiji odgovor.
11:53
Why do we pick the vacations we do
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Zašto odabiremo odmore koje odabiremo,
11:56
is a problem that confronts us
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jest problem koji nas suprotstavlja
11:59
with a choice between the two selves.
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s izborom između naših dvaju jastva.
12:01
Now, the two selves
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Dakle, ova dva jastva,
12:04
bring up two notions of happiness.
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povlače dva tumačenja pojma "sreća".
12:06
There are really two concepts of happiness
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Postoje dva koncepta sreće,
12:08
that we can apply, one per self.
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koja možemo primijeniti na po jedno jastvo.
12:11
So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?
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Kada pitate: Koliko je sretno iskustveno jastvo?
12:16
And then you would ask: How happy are the moments
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Tada pitate: Koliko su sretni trenuci
12:18
in the experiencing self's life?
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života iskustvenog jastva?
12:21
And they're all -- happiness for moments
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Svi su oni redom - sreća u trenucima
12:23
is a fairly complicated process.
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čineći ovo vrlo zamršenim procesom.
12:25
What are the emotions that can be measured?
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Koje su to emocije koje se mogu mjeriti?
12:28
And, by the way, now we are capable
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Usput, sada smo u mogućnosti
12:30
of getting a pretty good idea
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približno točno izmjeriti
12:32
of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.
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sreću iskustvenog jastva kroz vrijeme.
12:38
If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self,
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Ako ispitujete sreću pamtećeg jastva,
12:41
it's a completely different thing.
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to je sasvim druga stvar.
12:43
This is not about how happily a person lives.
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Tada nije važno koliko sretno osoba živi.
12:46
It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is
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Važno je koliko je osoba zadovoljna
12:49
when that person thinks about her life.
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kada razmišlja o vlastitom životu.
12:53
Very different notion.
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Poprilično različit koncept.
12:55
Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions
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Tko god ne razlikuje te pojmove,
12:58
is going to mess up the study of happiness,
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pogriješiti će u istraživanju o sreći,
13:00
and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being,
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a ja pripadam družini studenata blagostanja,
13:03
who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time
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koji su griješili u istraživanju sreće jako dugo
13:07
in precisely this way.
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upravo na taj način.
13:09
The distinction between the
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Ta razlika između
13:11
happiness of the experiencing self
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sreće iskustvenog jastva
13:13
and the satisfaction of the remembering self
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i zadovoljstva pamtećeg jastva
13:16
has been recognized in recent years,
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prepoznata je posljednjih godina
13:18
and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.
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i sada postoje napori za ispitivanje ovih dvoje odvojeno;
13:21
The Gallup Organization has a world poll
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Gallup organizacija ima anketu na svjetskoj razini
13:24
where more than half a million people
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s više od pola milijuna ljudi
13:26
have been asked questions
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kojima su postavljena pitanja
13:28
about what they think of their life
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o tome što misle o svom životu
13:30
and about their experiences,
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i svojim iskustvima.
13:32
and there have been other efforts along those lines.
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Bilo je još napora na tom pravcu.
13:35
So in recent years, we have begun to learn
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Posljednjih godina, počeli smo učiti
13:38
about the happiness of the two selves.
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o sreći dvaju jastva.
13:41
And the main lesson I think that we have learned
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Najvažnija lekcija koju smatram da smo naučili,
13:44
is they are really different.
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jest da su oni stvarno različiti.
13:46
You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life,
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Možete znati koliko je netko zadovoljan sa svojim životom,
13:51
and that really doesn't teach you much
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ali to vam zapravo ne govori mnogo
13:53
about how happily they're living their life,
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o tome koliko sretno netko živi svoj život,
13:56
and vice versa.
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i obrnuto.
13:58
Just to give you a sense of the correlation,
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Samo da vam pojasnim korelaciju,
14:00
the correlation is about .5.
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ona iznosi oko 0.5.
14:02
What that means is if you met somebody,
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A to znači da ako sretnete nekoga,
14:05
and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall,"
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i kažu vam, znaš njegov je tata 180 cm visok,
14:09
how much would you know about his height?
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koliko vam to govori o njegovoj visini?
14:11
Well, you would know something about his height,
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Pa, nešto biste mogli i pretpostaviti o njegovoj visini,
14:13
but there's a lot of uncertainty.
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ali ostaje prilično velika nesigurnost.
14:15
You have that much uncertainty.
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Toliko ste nesigurni.
14:17
If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten,
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Ako vam kažem da je netko rangirao svoj život 8 od 10,
14:21
you have a lot of uncertainty
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biti ćete nesigurni
14:23
about how happy they are
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o tome koliko je sretan
14:25
with their experiencing self.
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sa svojim iskustvenim jastvom.
14:27
So the correlation is low.
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Znači korelacija je mala.
14:29
We know something about what controls
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Znamo nešto o tome što kontrolira
14:32
satisfaction of the happiness self.
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zadovoljstvo sretnog jastva.
14:34
We know that money is very important,
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Znamo da je novac vrlo važan,
14:36
goals are very important.
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ciljevi su vrlo važni.
14:38
We know that happiness is mainly
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Znamo da se sreća uglavnom
14:42
being satisfied with people that we like,
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zadovoljava zajedno s ljudima koje volimo,
14:45
spending time with people that we like.
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provodeći vrijeme sa ljudima koje volimo.
14:48
There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.
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Postoje različiti načini zadovoljavanja, ali ovaj je dominantan.
14:50
So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves,
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Znači, ako biste htjeli maksimizirati sreću obaju jastva,
14:53
you are going to end up
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na kraju biste
14:55
doing very different things.
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radili dvije vrlo različite stvari.
14:57
The bottom line of what I've said here
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Suština onoga što sam rekao ovdje
14:59
is that we really should not think of happiness
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jest da ne bismo trebali razmišljati o sreći
15:03
as a substitute for well-being.
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kao zamjeni za blagostanje.
15:05
It is a completely different notion.
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To je sasvim drugačiji pojam.
15:08
Now, very quickly,
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Ukratko,
15:11
another reason we cannot think straight about happiness
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još jedan razlog zbog kojega ne možemo misliti jasno o sreći
15:15
is that we do not attend to the same things
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jest taj što ne obraćamo pažnju na iste stvari
15:22
when we think about life, and we actually live.
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kada mislimo o životu, i kada zapravo život živimo.
15:25
So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California,
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I, ako postavite jednostavno pitanje, koliko sretno ljudi žive u Kaliforniji,
15:30
you are not going to get to the correct answer.
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nećete dobiti točan odgovor.
15:33
When you ask that question,
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Kada pitate to pitanje,
15:35
you think people must be happier in California
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mislite da ljudi moraju biti sretniji u Kaliforniji,
15:37
if, say, you live in Ohio.
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ako vi, recimo, živite u Ohiju.
15:39
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:41
And what happens is
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I ono što se događa jest
15:44
when you think about living in California,
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da kada mislite o životu u Kaliforniji
15:48
you are thinking of the contrast
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mislite zapravo na kontrast
15:50
between California and other places,
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između Kalifornije i ostalih mjesta
15:53
and that contrast, say, is in climate.
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i taj kontrast, recimo, postoji u klimatskim uvjetima.
15:55
Well, it turns out that climate
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Međutim, ispostavilo se kako klima
15:57
is not very important to the experiencing self
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i nije toliko bitna iskustvenom jastvu
16:00
and it's not even very important to the reflective self
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i nije čak jako bitna mislećem jastvu,
16:03
that decides how happy people are.
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koje odlučuje koliko su ljudi sretni.
16:06
But now, because the reflective self is in charge,
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Doduše, s obzirom da je misleće jastvo ono koje odlučuje,
16:10
you may end up -- some people may end up
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mogli biste se - neki ljudi bi se mogli
16:12
moving to California.
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preseliti u Kaliforniju.
16:14
And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen
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Na neki način je zanimljivo pratiti što će se dogoditi
16:17
to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.
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ljudima koji se presele u Kaliforniju u nadi da će biti sretniji.
16:20
Well, their experiencing self
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Naime, njihovo iskustveno jastvo
16:22
is not going to get happier.
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neće biti ništa sretnije.
16:24
We know that.
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I mi to znamo.
16:27
But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier,
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Ali jedna će se stvar dogoditi. Oni će misliti da su sretniji,
16:30
because, when they think about it,
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jer, kada o tome misle,
16:34
they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio,
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prisjetiti će se kako je ružno vrijeme bilo u Ohiju.
16:38
and they will feel they made the right decision.
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I osjećati će se da su ispravno postupili.
16:41
It is very difficult
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Vrlo je teško
16:43
to think straight about well-being,
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misliti jasno o blagostanju
16:45
and I hope I have given you a sense
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i nadam se da sam vam približio osjećaj
16:48
of how difficult it is.
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težine tog zadatka.
16:50
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:52
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:55
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.
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Chris Anderson: Hvala vam. Imam pitanje za vas.
16:59
Thank you so much.
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Hvala vam puno.
17:01
Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago,
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Kada smo prošli tjedan razgovarali na telefonu,
17:05
you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result
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spomenuli ste da je jako zanimljiv rezultat
17:08
came out of that Gallup survey.
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proizašao iz Gallup ankete.
17:10
Is that something you can share
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Je li to nešto što biste mogli podijeliti
17:12
since you do have a few moments left now?
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s obzirom da imate još vremena?
17:14
Daniel Kahneman: Sure.
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Daniel Kahneman: Naravno.
17:16
I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey
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Smatram, kao je najzanimljiviji rezultat koji smo pronašli u Gallup anketi
17:19
is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.
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broj, za koji se nikako nismo nadali da ćemo otkriti.
17:22
We found that with respect to the happiness
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Otkrili smo to u odnosu na sreću
17:24
of the experiencing self.
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iskustvenog jastva.
17:27
When we looked at how feelings,
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Kada smo pogledali kako osjećaji
17:32
vary with income.
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mijenjaju s primanjima.
17:34
And it turns out that, below an income
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I ispostavilo se da, ispod određenog primanja
17:37
of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans --
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od 60,000 dolara na godinu, za Amerikance,
17:40
and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000,
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i to je vrlo veliki udio Amerikanaca, oko 600,000 njih,
17:43
so it's a large representative sample --
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dakle veliki reprezentativni uzorak,
17:45
below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...
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ispod primanja od 600,000 dolara godišnje...
17:47
CA: 60,000.
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CA: 60,000.
17:49
DK: 60,000.
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DK:60,000.
17:51
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
17:53
60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy,
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60,000 dolara na godinu, ljudi su nesretni,
17:57
and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.
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i postaju progresivno nesretniji što su siromašniji.
18:00
Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.
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Iznad toga, imamo apsolutno ravnu liniju.
18:03
I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat.
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Stvarno, jako rijetko viđam tako ravne linije.
18:06
Clearly, what is happening is
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Jasno, što se događa jest
18:08
money does not buy you experiential happiness,
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da vam novac ne može kupiti iskustvenu sreću,
18:11
but lack of money certainly buys you misery,
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ali vam pomankanje novca sigurno može kupiti bijedu,
18:14
and we can measure that misery
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i mi tu bijedu možemo mjeriti
18:16
very, very clearly.
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vrlo, vrlo jasno.
18:18
In terms of the other self, the remembering self,
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U okvirima drugog jastva, pamtećeg jastva,
18:21
you get a different story.
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druga je priča.
18:23
The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.
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Što više novaca zarađujete to ste zadovoljniji.
18:26
That does not hold for emotions.
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To se ne "drži vodu" kod emocija.
18:28
CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about
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CA: Ali Danny, trud cijele Amerike je usmjeren ka
18:31
life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.
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životu, slobodi, potrazi za srećom.
18:34
If people took seriously that finding,
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Ako bi ljudi ozbiljno shvatili to otkriće,
18:38
I mean, it seems to turn upside down
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mislim, izgleda malo naopako
18:41
everything we believe about, like for example,
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sve što vjerujemo, primjerice,
18:43
taxation policy and so forth.
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o poreznoj politici i tako dalje.
18:45
Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally,
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Postoji li ikakva mogućnost da bi političari i zemlja općenito,
18:48
would take a finding like that seriously
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mogli uzeti to istraživanje za ozbiljno
18:51
and run public policy based on it?
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i voditi javnu politiku temeljenu na tome?
18:53
DK: You know I think that there is recognition
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DK: Znaš, mislim da postoji priznanje
18:55
of the role of happiness research in public policy.
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o ulozi istraživanja sreće u javnoj politici.
18:58
The recognition is going to be slow in the United States,
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Priznavanje će doći sporo u Sjedinjenim državama,
19:00
no question about that,
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bez ikakve sumnje,
19:02
but in the U.K., it is happening,
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ali u UK, već se događa,
19:04
and in other countries it is happening.
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a i u ostalim zemljama također.
19:06
People are recognizing that they ought
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Ljudi su prepoznali da bi trebali
19:09
to be thinking of happiness
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razmišljati o sreći
19:11
when they think of public policy.
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kada razmišljaju o javnoj politici.
19:13
It's going to take a while,
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Potrajati će,
19:15
and people are going to debate
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i ljudi će raspravljati
19:18
whether they want to study experience happiness,
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žele li proučavati iskustvenu sreću,
19:20
or whether they want to study life evaluation,
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ili žele proučavati ocijenjivanje života,
19:22
so we need to have that debate fairly soon.
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i stoga je potrebno ubrzo provesti takvu raspravu.
19:25
How to enhance happiness
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Kako povećati sreću,
19:27
goes very different ways depending on how you think,
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razlikovati će se o tome kako razmišljate,
19:30
and whether you think of the remembering self
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i je li mislite o pamtećem jastvu
19:32
or you think of the experiencing self.
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ili iskustvenom jastvu.
19:34
This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.
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To će utjecati na politiku, u godinama koje dolaze.
19:37
In the United States, efforts are being made
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U Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, trud je uložen
19:40
to measure the experience happiness of the population.
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za mjerenje doživljaja sreće unutar stanovništva.
19:43
This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two,
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Smatram da će to biti u slijedećem desetljeću ili dva
19:46
part of national statistics.
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dio nacionalne statistike.
19:48
CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be --
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CA: Dobro, čini mi se, ovaj će problem biti, ili bi barem trebao,
19:52
the most interesting policy discussion to track
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najzanimljivija politička rasprava za pratiti
19:54
over the next few years.
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u sljedećih nekoliko godina.
19:56
Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.
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Hvala vam puno što ste utemeljili bihevioralnu ekonomiju.
19:58
Thank you, Danny Kahneman.
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Hvala Vam, Danny Kahneman.
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