Pete Alcorn on the world in 2200

Prevodilac: Elizabeta Petrovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

I used to be a Malthusian.

Nekada sam bio maltuzijanac.

This was my mental model of the world:

Ovo je bio moj mentalni model sveta.

exploding population, small planet;

Eksplodiranje populacije, mala planeta,

it's going to lead to ugly things.

to ima da vodi do ružnih stvari.

But I'm moving past Malthus,

Ali prevazilazim Maltusa.

because I think that we just might be about 150 years

Jer mislim da smo 150 godina

from a kind of new enlightenment.

od neke vrste novog prosvetljenja.

Here's why.

Evo zašto.

This is the U.N.'s population data,

Ovo su UN-ovi podaci populacije,

you may have seen, for the world.

koje ste možda videli, za svet.

And the world's population expected to top out

Očekuje se da svetska populacija, krajem

at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century.

ovog veka, dostigne vrhunac, nešto manje od 10 milijardi.

And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline.

I nakon toga, najverovatnije će krenuti da opada.

So what then?

I šta onda?

Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth.

Većina ekonomskih modela se gradi oko nestašice i rasta.

So a lot of economists

Pa mnogi ekonomisti

look at declining population

gledaju na opadanje populacije

and expect to see stagnation, maybe depression.

i očekuju stagniranje, možda i depresiju.

But a declining population is going to have

Ali opadanje populacije će imati

at least two very beneficial economic effects.

bar dva veoma korisna ekonomska efekta.

One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land

Jedan, manje ljudi na ograničenoj površini zemlje

make investing in property a bad bet.

čini da investiranje u nekretnine deluje kao loša opklada.

In the cities, a lot of the cost of property

U gradovima, mnoge cene imovine

is actually wrapped up in its speculative value.

su omotane špekulativnim vrednostima.

Take away land speculation,

Oduzmite špekulaciju zemlje,

price of land drops.

cena zemlje opada.

And that begins to lift a heavy burden

I počinje da se diže veliki teret

off the world's poor.

sa siromašnih u svetu.

Number two: a declining population

Drugo, opadanje populacije

means scarce labor.

znači nestašicu radne snage.

Scarce labor drives wages.

Nestašica radne snage povećava plate.

As wages increase

Kako se plate povećavaju

that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class.

to takođe diže teret sa siromašnih i radne klase.

Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death.

Ne pričam sada o radikalnom padu populacije kao što smo videli prilikom Crne Smrti.

But look what happened in Europe

Ali pogledajte šta se događa u Evropi

after the plague:

nakon kuge:

rising wages,

povećanje plata,

land reform,

reforma zemlje,

technological innovation,

tehnološke inovacije,

birth of the middle class;

rađanje srednje klase.

and after that, forward-looking social movements

I posle svega, radnički pokreti sa futurističkim pogledima

like the Renaissance,

kao Renesansa,

and later the Enlightenment.

i kasnije Prosvetiteljstvo.

Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward,

Većina našeg kulturnog nasleđa teži da gleda unazad,

romanticizing the past.

romantizujući prošlost.

All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden,

Sve zapadne religije počinju sa Rajem,

and descend through a kind of profligate present

i spuštaju se kroz neku vrstu rasipne sadašnjosti

to a very ugly future.

do veoma ružne budućnosti.

So human history is viewed

Tako da se na ljudsku istoriju gleda

as sort of this downhill slide

kao da klizi nadole,

from the good old days.

od dobrih starih dana.

But I think we're in for another change,

Ali mislim da će biti još jedna promena za nas.

about two generations after the top of that curve,

Dve generacije nakon vrha te krive,

once the effects of a declining population

kada efekti opadanja populacije

start to settle in.

krenu da deluju.

At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again,

U tom trenutku, počećemo da opet romantizujemo budućnost,

instead of the nasty, brutish past.

umesto prljave, brutalne prošlosti.

So why does this matter?

I zašto je ovo bitno?

Why talk about social-economic movements

Zašto pričati o socijalno-ekonomskim pokretima

that may be more than a century away?

koji će možda postojati za više od jednog veka?

Because transitions are dangerous times.

Jer su tranzicije opasna vremena.

When land owners start to lose money,

Kada vlasnici zemlje krenu da gube novac,

and labor demands more pay,

i radna snaga zahteva veću platu,

there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future.

postoje neki moćni interesi koji će da se plaše za budućnost.

Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions.

Strah za budućnost vodi do nekih ishitrenih odluka.

If we have a positive view about the future

Ako imamo pozitivan pogled na budućnost

then we may be able to accelerate through that turn,

onda možemo da se ubrzamo kroz taj preokret,

instead of careening off a cliff.

umesto da visimo da litice.

If we can make it through the next 150 years,

Ako možemo da proguramo kroz sledećih 150 godina,

I think that your great great grandchildren

mislim da će vaši pra-pra-praunuci

will forget all about Malthus.

zaboraviti Maltusa.

And instead, they'll be planning for the future

I umesto toga, planiraće za budućnost,

and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment.

počeće da grade Prosvetiteljstvo 22. veka.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)