Pete Alcorn on the world in 2200

翻译人员: Zachary Lin Zhao 校对人员: Chaoran Yu

I used to be a Malthusian.

我曾经是马尔萨斯人口论的拥护者。

This was my mental model of the world:

这曾是这个世界在我脑海中的样子──

exploding population, small planet;

爆炸性的人口，渺小的星球，

it's going to lead to ugly things.

一切都指向一个不祥的未来。

But I'm moving past Malthus,

但我现在已经抛弃了马尔萨斯，

because I think that we just might be about 150 years

因为我觉得再过150年，我们将迎来

from a kind of new enlightenment.

一个新的启迪。

Here's why.

原因就在于此：

This is the U.N.'s population data,

你可能看过这个，这是联合国发布的

you may have seen, for the world.

世界人口的数据。

And the world's population expected to top out

世界人口的预计上限希望是可以

at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century.

稍低于100亿，并将在本世纪末叶达到。

And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline.

在那之后，人口数量将开始下降。

So what then?

不过那又怎样呢？

Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth.

大多数的经济模型都是建立在缺少和增长两个概念上，

So a lot of economists

因此很多经济学家

look at declining population

都将人口数量的缩小

and expect to see stagnation, maybe depression.

看作是经济停滞甚至衰退的前兆。

But a declining population is going to have

不过衰减的人口数量

at least two very beneficial economic effects.

至少会带来两项非常有益的经济效应。

One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land

其一，固定的土地总额加上逐渐减少的人口

make investing in property a bad bet.

将使得地产投资变成不佳的赌注。

In the cities, a lot of the cost of property

在城市里，房地产的一大部分费用

is actually wrapped up in its speculative value.

事实上都被倾注于这些投机性的价值中。

Take away land speculation,

减少地产投机，

price of land drops.

土地的价格便会降低。

And that begins to lift a heavy burden

这也将移除世界上贫困人口

off the world's poor.

的一个巨大负担。

Number two: a declining population

其二，锐减的人口

means scarce labor.

意味着劳动力稀缺。

Scarce labor drives wages.

稀少的劳动力将带动工资的增长。

As wages increase

而随着工资的增长，

that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class.

穷困人口和工薪阶层的负担将进一步减缓。

Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death.

当然了，我并不是在讨论那种黑死病带来的急剧人口下降。

But look what happened in Europe

不过看看在那场瘟疫发生后，

after the plague:

欧洲所发生的一切：

rising wages,

上升的工资，

land reform,

土地的改革，

technological innovation,

科技的创新，

birth of the middle class;

还有中产阶级的诞生。

and after that, forward-looking social movements

随之而来的，是极具前瞻意识的社会运动，

like the Renaissance,

比如文艺复兴，

and later the Enlightenment.

还有随后的启蒙运动。

Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward,

我们大部分的文化遗产都倾向于回望过去，

romanticizing the past.

将过去涂上浪漫的色彩。

All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden,

西方所有的宗教都是始于伊甸园这个概念，

and descend through a kind of profligate present

然后走过放荡的现今，

to a very ugly future.

直向一个极其丑恶的未来。

So human history is viewed

所以人类的历史才会被看作

as sort of this downhill slide

是在走下坡路，

from the good old days.

从过往美好的日子开始堕落。

But I think we're in for another change,

但我认为，我们即将迎来另一项改变──

about two generations after the top of that curve,

在那个曲线到达顶端的两代人口之后，

once the effects of a declining population

一旦随人口数量的缩减而带来的效应

start to settle in.

得以安顿落实。

At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again,

到那时，我们将可以再次憧憬美好的未来，

instead of the nasty, brutish past.

而不是纠葛于那粗野可恶的过去。

So why does this matter?

不过，这关我们什么事呢？

Why talk about social-economic movements

为什么要讨论一个多世纪以后的

that may be more than a century away?

社会经济运动？

Because transitions are dangerous times.

因为过渡期往往是最危险的时刻。

When land owners start to lose money,

当土地拥有者开始赔钱，

and labor demands more pay,

劳动者要求更高的工钱时，

there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future.

对未来的恐惧感将会变得强而有力。

Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions.

对未来的恐惧将会导致鲁莽的抉择。

If we have a positive view about the future

如果我们对未来充满希望，

then we may be able to accelerate through that turn,

我们就可以加速冲过那个转折点，

instead of careening off a cliff.

而不是坠入那个深渊。

If we can make it through the next 150 years,

如果我们能够很好地度过接下来的150年，

I think that your great great grandchildren

我相信你的曾曾祖孙们

will forget all about Malthus.

将会彻底遗忘马尔萨斯。

And instead, they'll be planning for the future

取而代之的，是对未来的悉心布置，

and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment.

并将开启22世纪的启蒙运动。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）