Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing

188,680 views ・ 2010-08-27

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Stevan Radanovic Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:16
So I work in marketing, which I love,
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Radim u marketingu, koji volim,
00:18
but my first passion was physics,
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ali moja prva strast je bila fizika,
00:21
a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,
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strast sa kojom me je upoznao fenomenalan nastavnik
00:24
when I had a little less gray hair.
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kada mi je kosa bila malo manje siva.
00:27
So he taught me
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On mi je objasnio
00:29
that physics is cool
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da je fizika kul zato što
00:31
because it teaches us so much about the world around us.
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nas uči mnogim stvarima o svetu oko nas.
00:33
And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you
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U narednih par minuta ću pokušati da vas ubedim
00:36
that physics can teach us something about marketing.
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da nam fizika može reći i ponešto o marketingu.
00:39
So quick show of hands --
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Kratka anketa podizanjem ruku -
00:41
who studied some marketing in university?
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ko je učio nešto o marketingu na fakultetu?
00:43
Who studied some physics in university?
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Ko je učio nešto o fizici na fakultetu?
00:45
Pretty good. And at school?
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O, veoma dobro. A u školi?
00:47
Okay, lots of you.
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Okej, puno vas.
00:49
So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,
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Stoga nadam se da će ovo doneti neka srećna
00:51
or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.
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ili, moguće, blago uznemirujuća sećanja.
00:54
So, physics and marketing.
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Dakle, fizika i marketing:
00:58
We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:
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Počnimo nečim veoma jednostavnim, Njutnovim zakonom -
01:00
"The force equals mass times acceleration."
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"Sila je jednaka proizvodu mase i ubrzanja."
01:03
This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines
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To je nešto što je turski avioprevoznik
01:05
should have studied a bit more carefully
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možda trebao bolje da prouči
01:08
before they ran this campaign.
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pre nego što su pokrenuli ovu kampanju.
01:10
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:13
But if we rearrange this formula quickly,
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Ako brzo preuredimo ovu formulu,
01:16
we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,
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dobijamo da je ubrzanje jednako količniku sile i mase,
01:19
which means
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što znači da je
01:21
that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --
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za veću česticu, tj. veću masu, potrebno
01:24
it requires more force to change its direction.
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uložiti veću silu da bi joj promenili pravac kretanja.
01:28
It's the same with brands:
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Isto važi i za brendove.
01:30
the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,
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Što je brend glomazniji, što ima više "prtljaga",
01:33
the more force is needed to change its positioning.
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potrebna je veća sila da bi promenila njegovu poziciju.
01:36
And that's one of the reasons why
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To je jedan od razloga zašto je
01:38
Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture
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Artur Andersen odbrao da pokrene nov brend - Accenture
01:41
rather than try to persuade the world
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umesto da pokuša da ubedi svet da
01:43
that Andersen's could stand for something
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Anderseni mogu biti simbol još nečega
01:45
other than accountancy.
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pored računovodstva.
01:47
It explains why Hoover
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To objašnjava zašto je firmi Hoover
01:49
found it very difficult to persuade the world
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bilo veoma teško da ubedi svet
01:51
that it was more than vacuum cleaners,
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da je više od proizvođača usisivača,
01:53
and why companies like Unilever and P&G
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i zašto kompanije kao što su Unilever i P&G
01:56
keep brands separate,
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drže brendove razdvojene,
01:58
like Ariel and Pringles and Dove
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kao što su Oreo, Pringle i Dove,
02:01
rather than having one giant parent brand.
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umesto da imaju jedan ogroman "roditeljski" brend.
02:05
So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object
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Dakle, fizika nas uči da što je veća masa objekta
02:08
the more force is needed
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veća sila je potrebna da bi se
02:10
to change its direction.
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promenio pravac njegovog kretanja.
02:12
The marketing is, the bigger a brand,
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U marketingu važi da što je veći brend
02:14
the more difficult it is to reposition it.
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teže je repozicionirati ga.
02:16
So think about a portfolio of brands
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Stoga, cilj je portfolio brendova
02:18
or maybe new brands for new ventures.
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ili novi brendovi za nove projekte.
02:21
Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?
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Sada, ko se seća Hajzenbergovog principa neodređenosti?
02:24
Getting a little more technical now.
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Ovo je malo stručnije gradivo.
02:26
So this says that
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Ovaj princip nas uči da je
02:28
it's impossible, by definition,
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po definiciji nemoguće
02:30
to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --
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potpuno tačno izmeriti stanje, npr. poziciju,
02:32
and the momentum of a particle,
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i impuls čestice (proizvod brzine i mase),
02:34
because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.
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zato što sam čin merenja, po definiciji, menja česticu.
02:37
So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle
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Da objasnim - ako posmatrate elementarnu česticu
02:39
and you shine a light on it,
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i osvetlite je,
02:41
then the photon of light has momentum,
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foton te svetlosti ima impuls,
02:44
which knocks the particle,
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koji "udara" česticu,
02:47
so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.
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tako da ne znate gde je tačno bila pre nego što ste je "pogledali".
02:50
By measuring it,
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Merenje, sam čin merenja
02:52
the act of measurement changes it.
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menja česticu.
02:54
The act of observation changes it.
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Sam čin posmatranja je menja.
02:56
It's the same in marketing.
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Isto je i u marketingu.
02:58
So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.
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Posmatranje potrošača menja njihovo ponašanje.
03:01
Think about the group of moms
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Zamislite grupu mama koje
03:04
who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,
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pričaju o svojoj divnoj deci u fokus grupi
03:07
and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.
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i kako skoro nijedna od njih ne kupuje brzu hranu.
03:10
And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.
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Pa ipak, McDonald's prodaje stotine miliona hamburgera svake godine.
03:13
Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,
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Zamislite ljude u supermarketima, koji su se složili da statističari
03:16
who stuff their trolleys
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analiziraju šta su kupili, kako pune svoja kolica
03:18
full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,
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svežim povrćem i voćem,
03:20
but don't shop like that any other day.
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ali nemaju takve kupovne navike bilo kog drugog dana.
03:23
And if you think about the number of people
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Razmislite koliko ljudi u anketama
03:25
who claim in surveys
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kaže da redovno pretražuje
03:27
to regularly look for porn on the Web,
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porno sadržaj na internetu -
03:29
it's very few.
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veoma malo njih.
03:31
Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.
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Ipak, mi iz Google-a znamo da je to najčešće korišćena kategorija za pretragu.
03:35
So luckily, the science --
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Stoga, srećom nauka -
03:37
no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.
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ne, izvinite - marketing postaje jednostavniji.
03:40
Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,
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Zahvaljujući sve boljem praćenju na samom mestu prodaje,
03:43
more digital media consumption,
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porastu konzumiranja digitalnih medija,
03:45
you can measure more what consumers actually do,
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možete bolje meriti šta potrošači zaista rade,
03:48
rather than what they say they do.
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a ne šta kažu da rade.
03:50
So the physics is
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Dakle, u fizici
03:52
you can never accurately and exactly
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nikada ne možete meriti stanje čestice
03:54
measure a particle,
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sa potpunom tačnošću, budući da
03:56
because the observation changes it.
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sam čin posmatranja utiče na to stanje.
03:58
The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --
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U marketingu - ono što treba usvojiti u marketingu
04:01
that try to measure what consumers actually do,
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je da treba meriti šta potrošači zaista rade,
04:04
rather than what they say they'll do
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a ne ono što kažu da rade
04:06
or anticipate they'll do.
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ili što veruju da će raditi.
04:09
So next, the scientific method --
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Dalje, naučni metod,
04:12
an axiom of physics, of all science --
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aksiom fizike, svih nauka zapravo -
04:14
says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,
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kaže da posmatranjem ne možete dokazati hipotezu.
04:16
you can only disprove it.
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Jedino je možete opovrgnuti.
04:18
What this means is you can gather more and more data
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To znači da skupljanjem iznova novih podataka o
04:21
around a hypothesis or a positioning,
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nekoj hipotezi ili stavu,
04:23
and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.
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ojačavamo, ali nikada definitivno ne dokazujemo tu hipotezu ili stav.
04:26
And only one contrary data point
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Samo jedan protivrečan razultat eksperimenta
04:28
can blow your theory out of the water.
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može teoriju da učini nevažećom.
04:31
So if we take an example --
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Uzmimo kao primer Ptolomeja
04:33
Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory
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koji je imao desetine podataka kao podršku svojoj teoriji
04:36
that the planets would rotate around the Earth.
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da se planete kreću oko Zemlje.
04:39
It only took one robust observation from Copernicus
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Jedno robusno posmatranje od strane Kopernika
04:42
to blow that idea out of the water.
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je bilo dovoljno da ta teorija postane nevažeća.
04:45
And there are parallels for marketing --
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Postoje paralele u marketingu.
04:47
you can invest for a long time in a brand,
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Možete dugo vremena investirati u brend,
04:50
but a single contrary observation of that positioning
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ali jedno jedino drugačije viđenje njegove pozicije
04:52
will destroy consumers' belief.
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će uništiti poverenje potrošača.
04:55
Take BP --
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Razmotrimo BP.
04:57
they spent millions of pounds over many years
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Godinama troše milione britanskih funti kako bi
04:59
building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,
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izgradili ugled brenda prijateljskog ka životnoj okolini,
05:02
but then one little accident.
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a onda se desi jedna "mala" nesreća.
05:05
Think about Toyota.
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Razmislite o Tojoti.
05:07
It was, for a long time, revered
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Dugo vremena je smatrana
05:09
as the most reliable of cars,
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za najpouzdaniji auto,
05:11
and then they had the big recall incident.
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a onda se desio opoziv velikog broja njihovih vozila.
05:14
And Tiger Woods, for a long time,
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I Tajger Vuds, koji je dugo bio
05:16
the perfect brand ambassador.
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savršeni ambasador brendova.
05:18
Well, you know the story.
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Pa, znate priču.
05:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:26
So the physics is
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Dakle, u fizici je
05:28
that you cannot prove a hypothesis,
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nemoguće dokazati hipotezu,
05:30
but it's easy to disprove it --
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ali ju je lako opovrgnuti.
05:32
any hypothesis is shaky.
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Svaka hipoteza je na staklenim nogama.
05:34
And the marketing is
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U marketingu važi da
05:36
that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,
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nezavisno od toga koliko je uloženo u neki brend,
05:39
one bad week can undermine decades of good work.
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jedna loša nedelja može potkopati dekade dobrog rada.
05:42
So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups
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Stoga treba biti veoma pažljiv i izbegavati zamke
05:44
that can undermine your brand.
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koje mogu potkopati brend.
05:47
And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --
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Za kraj, pomalo nejasan svet entropije,
05:50
the second law of thermodynamics.
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drugog zakona termodinamike.
05:52
This says that entropy,
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On saopštava da entropija, koja je
05:54
which is a measure of the disorder of a system,
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mera neuređenosti nekog sistema,
05:56
will always increase.
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uvek raste.
05:58
The same is true of marketing.
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Isto važi u marketingu.
06:00
If we go back 20 years,
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Vratimo se u prošlost 20 godina:
06:02
the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager
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jedan slogan iza kojeg se nalazio jedan marketinški menadžer
06:05
could pretty much define a brand.
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je bio u stanju da definiše brend.
06:08
But where we are today, things have changed.
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Ipak, danas stvari stoje drugačije.
06:11
You can get a strong brand image
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Možete stvoriti jak brend,
06:13
or a message
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vizualno ili verbalno, i izneti ga
06:15
and put it out there like the Conservative Party did
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pred javnost, kao što je Konzervativna partija uradila
06:17
earlier this year with their election poster.
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svojim izbornim posterom, ranije u toku godine.
06:20
But then you lose control of it.
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Ali onda gubite kontrolu nad njime.
06:23
With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools
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Uz sve načine na koje je moguće stvoriti i distribuirati
06:26
that are available now to every consumer,
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digitalne komentare, dostupne svakom potrošaču danas,
06:29
it's impossible to control where it goes.
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nemoguće je kontrolisati pravac razvoja brenda.
06:32
Your brand starts being dispersed,
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Brend počinje da se rasipa.
06:34
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:36
it gets more chaotic.
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Postaje haotičan.
06:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:40
It's out of your control.
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Potpuno je van kontrole.
06:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:47
I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.
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Zapravo, video sam njegovo predavanje i bilo je dobro.
06:49
But while this may be unsettling for marketers,
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Iako je to uznemirujuće za ljude u marketingu,
06:51
it's actually a good thing.
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u pitanju je dobra stvar.
06:53
This distribution of brand energy
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Ovo širenje energije brenda
06:55
gets your brand closer to the people,
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čini da brend postaje bliži ljudima,
06:57
more in with the people.
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zanimljiviji njima samima.
06:59
It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,
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To širenje energije je sila koja "demokratizuje"
07:02
which is ultimately good for your brand.
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i koja je dobra za brend, kada se sve uzme u obzir.
07:05
So, the lesson from physics is
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Dakle, fizika nas uči da se entropija
07:07
that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.
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uvek povećava; to je fundamentalni zakon.
07:10
The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.
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Poruka marketingu je da je vaš brend rašireniji.
07:13
You can't fight it, so embrace it
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Ne možete izbeći tu činjenicu,
07:15
and find a way to work with it.
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te je prihvatite i nađite načina da je iskoristite.
07:18
So to close,
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Kao zaključak,
07:20
my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me
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moj nastavnik, g-din Vater, mi je pokazao
07:22
that physics is cool,
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da je fizika kul, te se nadam
07:24
and hopefully, I've convinced you
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da sam vas ubedio da fizika
07:26
that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.
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može da nas nauči nečemu posebnom, čak i u svetu marketinga.
07:29
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
07:31
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
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