Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing

翻译人员: Qian YANG 校对人员: Xu Jiang

So I work in marketing, which I love,

我现在从事我所喜爱的市场营销工作，

but my first passion was physics,

但是我的第一爱好曾经是物理学，

a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,

这种热情是一个很棒的教师带给我的

when I had a little less gray hair.

那时我有一点点灰色头发。

So he taught me

所以他教给我

that physics is cool

物理学是很酷的

because it teaches us so much about the world around us.

因为它可以教给我们很多很多关于我们周围世界的事情。

And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you

接下来我要花上几分钟的时间要你们相信

that physics can teach us something about marketing.

物理学可以教给我们一些关于市场营销的知识。

So quick show of hands --

那么很快的举一下手--

who studied some marketing in university?

有谁在大学里学习过市场营销？

Who studied some physics in university?

有谁在大学里学习过物理学？

Pretty good. And at school?

哦，很好。有谁在高中学过？

Okay, lots of you.

好，很多人。

So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,

所以，希望这会让我们重获一些快乐，

or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.

或者可能是一些有点不安的回忆。

So, physics and marketing.

所以，关于物理学和市场营销：

We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:

我们要从一些简单的开始，牛顿第二定律：

"The force equals mass times acceleration."

“合外力等于质量乘以加速度。”

This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines

这是一些或许是土耳其航空公司

should have studied a bit more carefully

本应稍微多仔细学习的东西

before they ran this campaign.

然后，他们再进行竞选。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But if we rearrange this formula quickly,

但是如果我们重新快速的排列这个公式，

we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,

我们可以得到加速度等于合外力除以质量，

which means

这就是说

that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --

对于一个较大的颗粒，质量越大，

it requires more force to change its direction.

它就越需要更多的外力来改变运动方向。

It's the same with brands:

品牌也是一样。

the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,

品牌的规模越大，包袱越大，

the more force is needed to change its positioning.

这就需要更多的力量来改变它的定位。

And that's one of the reasons why

这就是为什么

Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture

阿瑟.安德森选择开创埃森哲（一家跨国公司）

rather than try to persuade the world

而不是试图说服世界

that Andersen's could stand for something

安德森可以代表除了会计学以外的其他事物

other than accountancy.

的原因之一。

It explains why Hoover

这解释了为什么胡佛

found it very difficult to persuade the world

发现很难让世界相信

that it was more than vacuum cleaners,

他的公司不仅仅生产真空吸尘器，

and why companies like Unilever and P&G

也解释了为什么像联合利华和宝洁这样的公司

keep brands separate,

一直将品牌分割开来，

like Ariel and Pringles and Dove

例如奥利奥、普林格和德芙

rather than having one giant parent brand.

而不是有一个很大的母品牌。

So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object

所以物理学就是，一个物体的质量越大

the more force is needed

就需要越多的力量

to change its direction.

来改变它的运动方向。

The marketing is, the bigger a brand,

市场营销是，品牌越大，

the more difficult it is to reposition it.

越难将它重新定位。

So think about a portfolio of brands

所以思考一系列的品牌

or maybe new brands for new ventures.

或者可能是为新的投机活动设计的新的品脾。

Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?

现在，谁记得海森堡的不确定原理？

Getting a little more technical now.

现在说一些有点技术性的东西。

So this says that

那么是这样的

it's impossible, by definition,

就定义本身而言，是不可能

to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --

准确测量一个粒子的状态，比如，位置，

and the momentum of a particle,

以及它的动量，

because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.

因为按照定义，测量这个动作就在改变这个粒子。

So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle

所以为了解释它--如果有一个基本粒子，

and you shine a light on it,

你将一束光照向它，

then the photon of light has momentum,

那么这束光的光子就有动量，

which knocks the particle,

就会敲击这个粒子，

so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.

所以你不知道在你看到它之前它在什么位置。

By measuring it,

通过测量粒子，

the act of measurement changes it.

测量的行为改变了它。

The act of observation changes it.

观察的行为改变了它。

It's the same in marketing.

市场营销也是一样。

So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.

使用通过观察消费者，改变他们行为的做法。

Think about the group of moms

想一下有一群母亲

who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,

她们在一个焦点小组中谈论她们出色的孩子，

and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.

而且几乎没有人购买大量的垃圾食品。

And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.

迄今为止，麦当劳每年卖出成千上万的汉堡包。

Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,

想一下那些在超级市场附属商店的人们

who stuff their trolleys

他们将他们的购物车

full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,

放满新鲜的绿色蔬菜和水果，

but don't shop like that any other day.

但是没有像其他时候那样购物。

And if you think about the number of people

如果你想一想这些

who claim in surveys

在调查中声称

to regularly look for porn on the Web,

经常在网上寻找色情电影的人，

it's very few.

人数其实不多。

Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.

迄今为止，我们知道谷歌是搜索类网页的第一名。

So luckily, the science --

所以很幸运的是，科学--

no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.

不，不好意思，市场营销变得越来越容易了。

Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,

幸运的是，现在拥有更好的销售网点追踪，

more digital media consumption,

以及更多的数字媒体的消费，

you can measure more what consumers actually do,

你可以更好地估量消费者实际在干什么，

rather than what they say they do.

而不是他们说他们在干什么。

So the physics is

所以物理学是

you can never accurately and exactly

你永远不可能准确的、确切的

measure a particle,

测量一个粒子，

because the observation changes it.

因为观查会改变它。

The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --

市场营销是，市场营销所带来的信息是，

that try to measure what consumers actually do,

试图估量出消费者确实在做什么，

rather than what they say they'll do

而不是他们说他们要做什么

or anticipate they'll do.

或者预期他们要做的事情。

So next, the scientific method --

所以接下来，所有科学的方法，

an axiom of physics, of all science --

也就是物理学的一个原理--

says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,

认为你不能通过观察证明一个假设。

you can only disprove it.

你只能反驳这个假设。

What this means is you can gather more and more data

这就是说，你可以收集越来越多

around a hypothesis or a positioning,

关于一个假说或者一个假设的资料和数据，

and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.

这会巩固这个假说，但是它不会最终证明它。

And only one contrary data point

只要有一个相反的数据点

can blow your theory out of the water.

就可以使你的理论灰飞烟灭。

So if we take an example --

所以如果我们举个例子--

Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory

托勒密有很多数据点可以支持他的理论

that the planets would rotate around the Earth.

行星可以绕着地球旋转。

It only took one robust observation from Copernicus

哥白尼只需要一个强有力的观察

to blow that idea out of the water.

就能推翻这个观点。

And there are parallels for marketing --

这和市场营销有些许相似之处。

you can invest for a long time in a brand,

你可以在一个品牌上投资很长一段时间，

but a single contrary observation of that positioning

但是对这个定位的一个相反的观察结果就

will destroy consumers' belief.

会摧毁消费者的信念。

Take BP --

举个英国石油公司（BP）的例子。

they spent millions of pounds over many years

他们很多年来花费数百万英镑

building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,

证明自己是一个对环境无害的品牌，

but then one little accident.

然后就出了一点小事故。

Think about Toyota.

想一下丰田。

It was, for a long time, revered

很久以前，这是个被人尊崇为

as the most reliable of cars,

最可信赖的汽车，

and then they had the big recall incident.

然后他们就出现了一个很大的召回事件。

And Tiger Woods, for a long time,

泰格.伍兹，曾在很长一段时间里，

the perfect brand ambassador.

被认为是最完美的品牌代表。

Well, you know the story.

恩。你知道他的故事的。

(Laughter)

笑声

So the physics is

所以物理学是

that you cannot prove a hypothesis,

你不能证明一个假说，

but it's easy to disprove it --

但是很容易就可以推翻它。

any hypothesis is shaky.

任何的假说都是不可靠的。

And the marketing is

市场营销是

that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,

无论你在你的品牌上投资了多少，

one bad week can undermine decades of good work.

倒霉的一周可以削弱几十年的好成果。

So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups

所以要非常仔细的尽量避免一团糟的局面

that can undermine your brand.

它能削弱你的品牌效应。

And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --

最后，说一下熵（物理热学名词）的较为模糊的世界，

the second law of thermodynamics.

热力学的第二定律。

This says that entropy,

定律认为熵，

which is a measure of the disorder of a system,

是一个衡量系统紊乱的方法，

will always increase.

这个量会一直增加。

The same is true of marketing.

市场营销也是一样。

If we go back 20 years,

如果我们退回20年，

the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager

一个市场营销经理可以基本控制的一个消息

could pretty much define a brand.

就可以基本上定义一个品牌。

But where we are today, things have changed.

但是今天我们所处的位置，事情已经改变了。

You can get a strong brand image

你可以得到一个强有力的品牌形象

or a message

或者一个信息

and put it out there like the Conservative Party did

然后将它展出，就像保守党

earlier this year with their election poster.

今年早些时候所做的选举海报一样。

But then you lose control of it.

但是那时你就失去了对它的控制。

With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools

因为即使现在每个消费者都可以享用

that are available now to every consumer,

数字评论设计和分销工具，

it's impossible to control where it goes.

你根本不可能控制局势的走向。

Your brand starts being dispersed,

你的品牌效应开始被减弱。

(Laughter)

笑声

it gets more chaotic.

局势变得越来越混乱。

(Laughter)

笑声

It's out of your control.

情况已经失控。

(Laughter)

笑声

I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.

我确实看到过他讲话。他干的不错。

But while this may be unsettling for marketers,

但是对商人来说，他们有些不安，

it's actually a good thing.

但这的确是件好事情。

This distribution of brand energy

品牌能量的分散

gets your brand closer to the people,

使你的品牌更贴近大众，

more in with the people.

更加受大众的欢迎。

It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,

能量的分配是一个民主的力量，

which is ultimately good for your brand.

最终它会对你的品牌有好处的。

So, the lesson from physics is

所以，从物理学当中吸取的经验是

that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.

熵这个量会一直增强；这是一个基本的定律。

The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.

从市场营销里得到的讯息是，你的品牌已经越来越弱。

You can't fight it, so embrace it

你不能与之相抗衡，那么就接受这个事实

and find a way to work with it.

然后找到可以解决的方法。

So to close,

那么临近尾声，

my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me

我的老师，瓦特先生，告诉我

that physics is cool,

物理学很酷

and hopefully, I've convinced you

希望，我已经让大家相信

that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.

物理学可以教给我们所有的人，即使是市场营销，一些有用的东西。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）