Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing

188,680 views ・ 2010-08-27

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: HJ Liao 審譯者: Lin Su-Wei(林書暐)
00:16
So I work in marketing, which I love,
0
16260
2000
我的工作是行銷,我也樂在其中。
00:18
but my first passion was physics,
1
18260
3000
而物理是我最初的摯愛。
00:21
a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,
2
21260
3000
當年在學校裏,有個很棒的老師,他燃起了我對物理的熱情,
00:24
when I had a little less gray hair.
3
24260
3000
當年的我,沒這麼多白頭髮。
00:27
So he taught me
4
27260
2000
他告訴我,
00:29
that physics is cool
5
29260
2000
物理很酷,
00:31
because it teaches us so much about the world around us.
6
31260
2000
它教我們很多有關這個世界的事。
00:33
And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you
7
33260
3000
接下來的幾分鐘裏,我要讓各位相信,
00:36
that physics can teach us something about marketing.
8
36260
3000
物理其實可以教我們一些有關行銷的事。
00:39
So quick show of hands --
9
39260
2000
我先做個小調查,
00:41
who studied some marketing in university?
10
41260
2000
這裏有人在大學裏修過行銷嗎?
00:43
Who studied some physics in university?
11
43260
2000
有人在大學裏修過物理嗎?
00:45
Pretty good. And at school?
12
45260
2000
噢,還不錯。中學的時候呢?
00:47
Okay, lots of you.
13
47260
2000
好,看來還不少。
00:49
So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,
14
49260
2000
那麼,希望這能讓你們回想起一些快樂的,
00:51
or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.
15
51260
3000
或是讓人感到有點混亂的往事。
00:54
So, physics and marketing.
16
54260
3000
好的,物理和行銷:
00:58
We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:
17
58260
2000
我們先從簡單的開始,先看牛頓定律:
01:00
"The force equals mass times acceleration."
18
60260
3000
力等於質量乘以加速度
01:03
This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines
19
63260
2000
土耳其航空也許應該
01:05
should have studied a bit more carefully
20
65260
3000
先好好地學學這個定律,
01:08
before they ran this campaign.
21
68260
2000
然後再推出這個行銷活動。
01:10
(Laughter)
22
70260
3000
(笑聲)
01:13
But if we rearrange this formula quickly,
23
73260
3000
如果我們很快地重組這個方程式,
01:16
we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,
24
76260
3000
我們可以得出,加速度等於力除以質量,
01:19
which means
25
79260
2000
也就是說
01:21
that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --
26
81260
3000
對質量比較大的物體而言,
01:24
it requires more force to change its direction.
27
84260
3000
要改變它的方向,需要更大的力。
01:28
It's the same with brands:
28
88260
2000
品牌也是一樣的 。
01:30
the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,
29
90260
3000
愈是重量級的品牌,包袱也愈重。
01:33
the more force is needed to change its positioning.
30
93260
3000
所以就會需要更大的力,才能改變它的行銷定位。
01:36
And that's one of the reasons why
31
96260
2000
這就是為什麼
01:38
Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture
32
98260
3000
亞瑟‧安德森(Arthur Andersen)選擇創立埃森哲(Accenture)公司,
01:41
rather than try to persuade the world
33
101260
2000
因為他不想費力要大家相信,
01:43
that Andersen's could stand for something
34
103260
2000
安德森(Andersen)這塊招牌
01:45
other than accountancy.
35
105260
2000
代表的不只是會計專業。
01:47
It explains why Hoover
36
107260
2000
這也是為什麼胡佛(Hoover)公司發現
01:49
found it very difficult to persuade the world
37
109260
2000
要說服大家,胡佛不只賣吸塵器
01:51
that it was more than vacuum cleaners,
38
111260
2000
不太容易。
01:53
and why companies like Unilever and P&G
39
113260
3000
還有,像聯合利華(Unilever )和寶鹼(P&G)這些公司
01:56
keep brands separate,
40
116260
2000
選擇保有獨立的品牌,
01:58
like Ariel and Pringles and Dove
41
118260
3000
奧力奧(Oreo)、品客(Pringle)和多芬(Dove)也是一樣,
02:01
rather than having one giant parent brand.
42
121260
3000
這些公司都不想經營一個大型的統一品牌。
02:05
So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object
43
125260
3000
所以啦,物理定律說,物體質量愈大,
02:08
the more force is needed
44
128260
2000
就需要愈大的力量,
02:10
to change its direction.
45
130260
2000
才能改變物體行進的方向。
02:12
The marketing is, the bigger a brand,
46
132260
2000
行銷也是如此,品牌愈大
02:14
the more difficult it is to reposition it.
47
134260
2000
重新定位就愈難。
02:16
So think about a portfolio of brands
48
136260
2000
所以不妨考慮經營一組品牌
02:18
or maybe new brands for new ventures.
49
138260
3000
或為新事業建立新的品牌。
02:21
Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?
50
141260
3000
現在我問一下,有誰記得海森堡(Heisenberg)的不定原理?
02:24
Getting a little more technical now.
51
144260
2000
這個技術含量稍微高一點。
02:26
So this says that
52
146260
2000
這個原理是說
02:28
it's impossible, by definition,
53
148260
2000
根據定義,我們不可能
02:30
to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --
54
150260
2000
準確測量粒子的狀態,例如
02:32
and the momentum of a particle,
55
152260
2000
位置和動能,
02:34
because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.
56
154260
3000
因為根據定義,測量行為本身,就會改變粒子的狀態。
02:37
So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle
57
157260
2000
意思就是說,假設有一個基本粒子
02:39
and you shine a light on it,
58
159260
2000
你拿光照它,
02:41
then the photon of light has momentum,
59
161260
3000
這個光的光子會有動能,
02:44
which knocks the particle,
60
164260
3000
和粒子會發生碰撞。
02:47
so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.
61
167260
3000
所以你不知道,在你看它之前,它在什麼位置。
02:50
By measuring it,
62
170260
2000
測量的同時,
02:52
the act of measurement changes it.
63
172260
2000
測量的動作會改變它。
02:54
The act of observation changes it.
64
174260
2000
觀察的行為會改變它。
02:56
It's the same in marketing.
65
176260
2000
這和行銷的道理是一樣的。
02:58
So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.
66
178260
3000
觀察消費者的動作,會改變消費者的行為。
03:01
Think about the group of moms
67
181260
3000
假設有一群媽媽
03:04
who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,
68
184260
3000
在焦點團體裏討論她們的小孩有多棒,
03:07
and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.
69
187260
3000
而這些媽媽都買很多垃圾食物。
03:10
And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.
70
190260
3000
所以,麥當勞每年才會賣出幾百萬個漢堡。
03:13
Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,
71
193260
3000
再假設有一群人,由訪員陪同,在超市購物,
03:16
who stuff their trolleys
72
196260
2000
他們往推車裏塞滿
03:18
full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,
73
198260
2000
新鮮的綠色蔬菜和水果,
03:20
but don't shop like that any other day.
74
200260
3000
但他們平常買東西的時候,可不像這樣。
03:23
And if you think about the number of people
75
203260
2000
想想看,會在意見調查中
03:25
who claim in surveys
76
205260
2000
宣稱自己
03:27
to regularly look for porn on the Web,
77
207260
2000
經常上網搜尋色情圖片、影片(porn)的人數,
03:29
it's very few.
78
209260
2000
是很少的。
03:31
Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.
79
211260
3000
不過,我們知道Google搜尋榜上,第一名就是porn。
03:35
So luckily, the science --
80
215260
2000
幸運的是,科學--
03:37
no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.
81
217260
3000
不好意思--是行銷,變得比較簡單了。
03:40
Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,
82
220260
3000
我們現在很幸運,有更好的銷售時點(POS)追蹤系統,
03:43
more digital media consumption,
83
223260
2000
更多的數位媒體消費,
03:45
you can measure more what consumers actually do,
84
225260
3000
你可以測量消費者的實際行為,
03:48
rather than what they say they do.
85
228260
2000
而不只是聽他們說他們做了什麼。
03:50
So the physics is
86
230260
2000
物理學上說,
03:52
you can never accurately and exactly
87
232260
2000
你永遠不可能確實、精準地
03:54
measure a particle,
88
234260
2000
測量一個粒子,
03:56
because the observation changes it.
89
236260
2000
因為觀察本身就會改變它。
03:58
The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --
90
238260
3000
就行銷而言,應用在行銷上,則是
04:01
that try to measure what consumers actually do,
91
241260
3000
要測量消費者的實際行為,
04:04
rather than what they say they'll do
92
244260
2000
而不是只聽他們說他們會怎麼做
04:06
or anticipate they'll do.
93
246260
3000
或預期他們會怎麼做。
04:09
So next, the scientific method --
94
249260
3000
接著,我們來看科學方法,
04:12
an axiom of physics, of all science --
95
252260
2000
這是物理學乃至所有科學的原理--
04:14
says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,
96
254260
2000
你不能靠觀察來證明一項假說。
04:16
you can only disprove it.
97
256260
2000
你只能反證它。
04:18
What this means is you can gather more and more data
98
258260
3000
這個意思是,你可以收集很多很多的資料,
04:21
around a hypothesis or a positioning,
99
261260
2000
來支持一項假說或定位,
04:23
and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.
100
263260
3000
不過這只能強化它,而沒辦法完全的證明。
04:26
And only one contrary data point
101
266260
2000
但只要一個反面的資料,
04:28
can blow your theory out of the water.
102
268260
3000
就能打倒你的理論。
04:31
So if we take an example --
103
271260
2000
我們舉個例子--
04:33
Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory
104
273260
3000
托勒密(Ptolemy)有很多資料來支持他的理論,
04:36
that the planets would rotate around the Earth.
105
276260
3000
也就是,行星是繞著地球運轉。
04:39
It only took one robust observation from Copernicus
106
279260
3000
但哥白尼一個有力的觀察結果,
04:42
to blow that idea out of the water.
107
282260
3000
就把他的理論打得落花流水。
04:45
And there are parallels for marketing --
108
285260
2000
行銷上也有這樣的例子。
04:47
you can invest for a long time in a brand,
109
287260
3000
你可以在一個品牌上投入很多的時間經營,
04:50
but a single contrary observation of that positioning
110
290260
2000
但只要有一個和品牌定位相反的事件,
04:52
will destroy consumers' belief.
111
292260
3000
就足以擊潰消費者的信心。
04:55
Take BP --
112
295260
2000
拿英國石油(BP)為例。
04:57
they spent millions of pounds over many years
113
297260
2000
他們在幾年內,花了幾百萬英磅
04:59
building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,
114
299260
3000
營造一個愛護環境的品牌形象,
05:02
but then one little accident.
115
302260
3000
然後,發生了這麼一個小意外。
05:05
Think about Toyota.
116
305260
2000
再看看Toyota。
05:07
It was, for a long time, revered
117
307260
2000
長久以來,它是受人尊崇,
05:09
as the most reliable of cars,
118
309260
2000
最值得信賴的汽車,
05:11
and then they had the big recall incident.
119
311260
3000
然後,發生了一次大規模的回收事件。
05:14
And Tiger Woods, for a long time,
120
314260
2000
還有老虎伍茲,他向來是
05:16
the perfect brand ambassador.
121
316260
2000
最完美的品牌大使。
05:18
Well, you know the story.
122
318260
2000
然後,你們都知道發生了什麼事。
05:20
(Laughter)
123
320260
6000
(笑聲)
05:26
So the physics is
124
326260
2000
這就是物理學說的,
05:28
that you cannot prove a hypothesis,
125
328260
2000
你無法證明一個假說,
05:30
but it's easy to disprove it --
126
330260
2000
但要反證它卻很容易。
05:32
any hypothesis is shaky.
127
332260
2000
任何假說都不可靠。
05:34
And the marketing is
128
334260
2000
在行銷上,就是
05:36
that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,
129
336260
3000
不管你在品牌經營上投注多少心力,
05:39
one bad week can undermine decades of good work.
130
339260
3000
只要一個處理不好,可能就會讓數十年的努力白費。
05:42
So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups
131
342260
2000
所以,一定要小心避免這類狀況的發生,
05:44
that can undermine your brand.
132
344260
2000
讓你的品牌受到傷害。
05:47
And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --
133
347260
3000
最後,來談談不太好懂的「熵」,
05:50
the second law of thermodynamics.
134
350260
2000
熱力學第二定律。
05:52
This says that entropy,
135
352260
2000
定律說,「熵」,
05:54
which is a measure of the disorder of a system,
136
354260
2000
也就是系統中的混亂程度
05:56
will always increase.
137
356260
2000
會一直增加。
05:58
The same is true of marketing.
138
358260
2000
這在行銷上也同樣適用。
06:00
If we go back 20 years,
139
360260
2000
回到20年前,
06:02
the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager
140
362260
3000
一個訊息,幾乎可以由一個行銷經理來掌握,
06:05
could pretty much define a brand.
141
365260
3000
而這個訊息,幾乎就能定義一個品牌。
06:08
But where we are today, things have changed.
142
368260
3000
但現在已經不再是這樣了。
06:11
You can get a strong brand image
143
371260
2000
你可以有一個很有力的品牌形象,
06:13
or a message
144
373260
2000
或一個訊息,
06:15
and put it out there like the Conservative Party did
145
375260
2000
然後把它發送出去,就像英國保守黨
06:17
earlier this year with their election poster.
146
377260
3000
前一陣子張貼競選海報的作法一樣。
06:20
But then you lose control of it.
147
380260
3000
但之後你就控制不了了。
06:23
With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools
148
383260
3000
現在有各式各樣製造和發送意見的工具,
06:26
that are available now to every consumer,
149
386260
3000
每個消費者都能使用,
06:29
it's impossible to control where it goes.
150
389260
3000
要控制訊息已經不可能了。
06:32
Your brand starts being dispersed,
151
392260
2000
你的品牌開始失焦。
06:34
(Laughter)
152
394260
2000
(笑聲)
06:36
it gets more chaotic.
153
396260
2000
開始變得混亂。
06:38
(Laughter)
154
398260
2000
(笑聲)
06:40
It's out of your control.
155
400260
2000
你沒辦法控制。
06:42
(Laughter)
156
402260
5000
(笑聲)
06:47
I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.
157
407260
2000
我親自看過他的演說。他其實表現得不錯。
06:49
But while this may be unsettling for marketers,
158
409260
2000
雖然這或許會讓行銷人員感到不安,
06:51
it's actually a good thing.
159
411260
2000
但這未嘗不是好事。
06:53
This distribution of brand energy
160
413260
2000
品牌能量的散佈,
06:55
gets your brand closer to the people,
161
415260
2000
能讓你的品牌更貼近一般人,
06:57
more in with the people.
162
417260
2000
更深入人心。
06:59
It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,
163
419260
3000
能量的分散,是一個民主化的力量,
07:02
which is ultimately good for your brand.
164
422260
3000
最終對你的品牌有益。
07:05
So, the lesson from physics is
165
425260
2000
所以,物理學教我們的是
07:07
that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.
166
427260
3000
熵會一直增加,這是基本原理。
07:10
The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.
167
430260
3000
應用在行銷上,就是你的品牌能量會變得更分散。
07:13
You can't fight it, so embrace it
168
433260
2000
你既然沒辦法對抗它,那就擁抱它,
07:15
and find a way to work with it.
169
435260
3000
找到和它共處的方法。
07:18
So to close,
170
438260
2000
結論是,
07:20
my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me
171
440260
2000
就像我的老師威特先生告訴我的,
07:22
that physics is cool,
172
442260
2000
物理很酷,
07:24
and hopefully, I've convinced you
173
444260
2000
還有呢,希望各位都同意,
07:26
that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.
174
446260
3000
物理可以教我們一些特別的事,甚至是行銷世界裏的事。
07:29
Thank you.
175
449260
2000
謝謝大家。
07:31
(Applause)
176
451260
2000
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7