Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing

Prevoditelj: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG Recezent: Predrag Pale

So I work in marketing, which I love,

Radim u marketingu, kojeg volim,

but my first passion was physics,

ali moja prva strast je bila fizika,

a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,

strast koju mi je prenio predivni učitelj u školi,

when I had a little less gray hair.

kada mi je kosa bila manje sijeda.

So he taught me

Dakle, on me naučio

that physics is cool

da je fizika fora

because it teaches us so much about the world around us.

jer nas uči toliko puno o svijetu oko nas.

And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you

I slijedećih par minuta ću potrošiti pokušavajući vas uvjeriti

that physics can teach us something about marketing.

kako nas fizika može naučiti nešto o marketingu.

So quick show of hands --

Kratka anketa podizanjem ruku --

who studied some marketing in university?

tko je učio nešto o marketingu na fakultetu?

Who studied some physics in university?

Tko je učio nešto o fizici na fakultetu?

Pretty good. And at school?

O, prilično dobro. A u školi?

Okay, lots of you.

OK, puno vas.

So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,

Dakle, nadam se kako ćemo vratiti neka sretna,

or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.

ili moguće blago uznemirujuća sjećanja.

So, physics and marketing.

Dakle, fizika i marketing:

We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:

Početi ćemo s nećim jako jednostavnim. Newtonov zakon.

"The force equals mass times acceleration."

"Sila je jednaka masi puta akceleraciji."

This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines

To je nešto što je možda Turkish Airlines

should have studied a bit more carefully

trebao proučiti malo pažljivije

before they ran this campaign.

prije nego što je pokrenuo ovu kampanju.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But if we rearrange this formula quickly,

Ali ako na brzinu preuredimo ovu formulu,

we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,

možemo dobiti kako je akceleracija jednaka sili podijeljenoj s masom,

which means

što znači

that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --

kako je za veću česticu, veću masu,

it requires more force to change its direction.

potrebna veća sila koja će joj promijeniti smjer kretanja.

It's the same with brands:

Jednaka je stvar s tržišnim markama.

the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,

Što je masivnija marka, više prtljage nosi,

the more force is needed to change its positioning.

više je sile potrebno kako bi joj se promijenila pozicija.

And that's one of the reasons why

I to je jedan od razloga zašto

Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture

je Arthur Andersen izabrao lansirati Accenture

rather than try to persuade the world

umjesto da pokuša uvjeriti svijet

that Andersen's could stand for something

kako Andersen može stajati za nešto

other than accountancy.

drugo osim računovodstva.

It explains why Hoover

To objašnjava zašto je Hooveru

found it very difficult to persuade the world

bila jako teško uvjeriti svijet

that it was more than vacuum cleaners,

da su nešto više od usisavača,

and why companies like Unilever and P&G

i zašto kompanije poput Unilever-a i P&G-a

keep brands separate,

drže marke odvojenima,

like Ariel and Pringles and Dove

poput Oreo keksa i Pringle čipsa i Dove kozmetike

rather than having one giant parent brand.

umjesto da imaju jednu veliku marku.

So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object

Dakle fizika nas uči da što je veća masa objekta

the more force is needed

više je sile potrebno

to change its direction.

da se promijeni njegov smjer.

The marketing is, the bigger a brand,

Marketing je, što je veća marka,

the more difficult it is to reposition it.

to ju je teže repozicionirati.

So think about a portfolio of brands

Razmislite o portfelju marki

or maybe new brands for new ventures.

ili možda novoj marki za novi poslovni poduhvat.

Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?

Sada, tko se sjeća Heisenbergerova principa neodređenosti?

Getting a little more technical now.

Postajemo malo više tehnički orjentirani.

So this says that

On nam govori kako

it's impossible, by definition,

je nemoguće, po definiciji,

to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --

mjeriti točno stanje, npr. poziciju,

and the momentum of a particle,

i impuls čestice,

because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.

jer čin mjerenja, po definiciji, mijenja česticu.

So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle

Da objasnim -- ako imate osnovnu česticu

and you shine a light on it,

i obasjate je svjetlošću,

then the photon of light has momentum,

onda foton svjetlosti ima impuls,

which knocks the particle,

koji udara o česticu,

so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.

tako da ne znate gdje je bila prije nego što ste je ugledali.

By measuring it,

Mjerenje,

the act of measurement changes it.

sam čin mjerenja, mijenja to.

The act of observation changes it.

Čin promatranja mijenja to.

It's the same in marketing.

Jednako je u marketingu.

So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.

Čin promatranja kupaca, mijenja njihovo ponašanje.

Think about the group of moms

Razmislite o grupi mama

who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,

koje govore o svojoj divnoj djeci u fokus grupi,

and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.

i gotovo niti jedna od njih ne kupuje puno loše hrane.

And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.

Ipak, McDonalds prodaje stotine milijuna hamburgera svake godine.

Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,

Razmislite o ljudima koji pod pratnjom kupuju u supermarketima,

who stuff their trolleys

puneći svoja kolica

full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,

svježim povrćem i voćem,

but don't shop like that any other day.

ali ne kupuju tako bilo koji drugi dan kad nemaju pratnju.

And if you think about the number of people

I ako razmislite koliki broj ljudi

who claim in surveys

tvrdi u anketama

to regularly look for porn on the Web,

da redovito gleda porno sadržaj na webu --

it's very few.

jako malo.

Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.

Ipak, znamo da je to kategorija koja se najviše pretražuje na Google-u.

So luckily, the science --

Na sreću, znanost --

no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.

ne, oprostite -- marketing postaje lakši.

Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,

Na sreću, sa sve boljim praćenjem na mjestu prodaje,

more digital media consumption,

porastom konzumiranja digitalnih medija,

you can measure more what consumers actually do,

možete mjeriti sve više što u stvari kupci rade,

rather than what they say they do.

umjesto onoga što oni kažu što rade.

So the physics is

Dakle u fizici,

you can never accurately and exactly

ne možete nikada sasvim točno

measure a particle,

mjeriti česticu,

because the observation changes it.

jer je proces promatranja mijenja.

The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --

Marketing -- poruka marketingu je --

that try to measure what consumers actually do,

neka pokuša izmjeriti što kupci zaista rade,

rather than what they say they'll do

umjesto onoga što kažu da rade

or anticipate they'll do.

ili očekuju da će napraviti.

So next, the scientific method --

Slijedeće, znanstvena metoda,

an axiom of physics, of all science --

aksiom fizike, sve znanosti --

says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,

kaže kako ne možemo dokazati hipotezu kroz promatranje.

you can only disprove it.

Možete je samo opovrgnuti.

What this means is you can gather more and more data

To znači da skupljanjem sve više podataka

around a hypothesis or a positioning,

oko hipoteze ili stava,

and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.

mi ga osnažujemo, ali ga ne možemo definitivno dokazati.

And only one contrary data point

I samo jedan suprotan podatak

can blow your theory out of the water.

može uništiti vašu teoriju.

So if we take an example --

Ako uzmemo jedan primjer --

Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory

Ptolomej je imao desetine podataka koji su podržavali njegovu teoriju

that the planets would rotate around the Earth.

da se planete vrte oko Zemlje.

It only took one robust observation from Copernicus

Dovoljna je bila samo jedna robusna obzervacija Kopernika

to blow that idea out of the water.

da se uništi ta ideja.

And there are parallels for marketing --

Slično postoji i u marketingu.

you can invest for a long time in a brand,

Možete dugo investirati u marku,

but a single contrary observation of that positioning

ali jedna suprotna observacija o tom pozicioniranju

will destroy consumers' belief.

će uništiti kupčevo uvjerenje.

Take BP --

Uzmite BP.

they spent millions of pounds over many years

Potrošili su milijune funti kroz puno godina

building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,

gradeći reputaciju kao marka koja je ekološki svjesna,

but then one little accident.

ali onda jedna mala nesreća.

Think about Toyota.

Razmislite o Toyoti.

It was, for a long time, revered

Dugo se vremena mislilo

as the most reliable of cars,

kako su to najsigurniji automobili,

and then they had the big recall incident.

i onda su imali nesreću s tim jednim velikim opozivom.

And Tiger Woods, for a long time,

I Tiger Woods je dugo vremena,

the perfect brand ambassador.

bio savršeni ambasador marke.

Well, you know the story.

Znate priču.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So the physics is

U fizici je

that you cannot prove a hypothesis,

nemoguće dokazati hipotezu,

but it's easy to disprove it --

ali je jednostavno opovrgnuti je.

any hypothesis is shaky.

Svaka hipoteza je klimava.

And the marketing is

A u marketingu je

that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,

da bez obzira koliko investirali u svoju marku,

one bad week can undermine decades of good work.

jedan loš tjedan može potkopati desetljeća dobrog rada.

So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups

Budite jako oprezni i izbjegavajte zamke

that can undermine your brand.

koje mogu potkopati vašu marku.

And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --

I na kraju, pomalo nejasan svijet entropije,

the second law of thermodynamics.

drugi zakon termodinamike.

This says that entropy,

Koji kaže kako će se entropija,

which is a measure of the disorder of a system,

koja je mjera nereda sustava,

will always increase.

uvijek rasti.

The same is true of marketing.

Isto je istina za marketing.

If we go back 20 years,

Ako se vratimo 20 godina unazad,

the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager

jedna poruka iza koje se nalazio jedan marketinški menadžer

could pretty much define a brand.

mogla je definirati marku.

But where we are today, things have changed.

Ali danas su se stvari promijenile.

You can get a strong brand image

Možete dobiti snažan imidž marke

or a message

ili poruke

and put it out there like the Conservative Party did

i iznijeti ga pred javnost kao što je konzervativna stranka napravila

earlier this year with their election poster.

ranije ove godine s njihovim izbornim posterima.

But then you lose control of it.

Ali onda gubite kontrolu nad njime.

With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools

Uz sve digitalne načine na koje je moguće stvoriti komentare i proširiti ih

that are available now to every consumer,

koji su danas dostupni svakom kupcu,

it's impossible to control where it goes.

nemoguće je kontrolirati razvoj marke.

Your brand starts being dispersed,

Vaša marka se raspršuje

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

it gets more chaotic.

Postaje kaotičnija.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's out of your control.

Izvan je kontrole.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.

Stvarno sam ga vidio dok govori. Napravio je dobar posao.

But while this may be unsettling for marketers,

Ali premda je to uznemirujuće za ljude koji rade u marketingu,

it's actually a good thing.

to je u zbilji dobra stvar.

This distribution of brand energy

Distribucija energije marke

gets your brand closer to the people,

doprinosi približavanju ljudima,

more in with the people.

zanimanju ljudi.

It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,

Distribucija energije je demokratizirajuća sila,

which is ultimately good for your brand.

koja je u konačnici dobra za marku.

So, the lesson from physics is

Dakle, lekcija iz fizike je

that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.

da će entropija uvijek rasti, to je fundamentalni zakon.

The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.

Poruka marketinga je da je vaša marka postaje sve više disperzirana.

You can't fight it, so embrace it

Ne možete se boriti protiv toga, zato to prihvatite

and find a way to work with it.

i pronađite način da to iskoristite.

So to close,

Da zaključimo,

my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me

moj učitelj, gosp. Vutter, mi je rekao

that physics is cool,

kako je fizika fora,

and hopefully, I've convinced you

i nadam se da sam vas uvjerio

that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.

kako nas fizika može sve naučiti, čak i svijet marketinga, nećem posebnom.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)