Hans Rosling on HIV: New facts and stunning data visuals

Prevodilac: Elizabeta Petrovic Lektor: Ana Zivanovic-Nenadovic

(Applause)

AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983.

SIDA je otkrivena 1981. godine; virus, 1983. godine.

These Gapminder bubbles show you

Ovi Gepmajnderovi mehurići vam pokazuju

how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world,

kako se virus širio u svetu 1983. godine,

or how we estimate that it was.

ili kako mi procenjujemo da se širio.

What we are showing here is --

Ovde, na ovoj osi

on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults.

prikazujem procenat zaraženih odraslih osoba.

A na ovoj osi, prikazujem prihod u dolarima po osobi.

And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income.

And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here,

Veličina ovih mehurića, ovde,

that shows how many are infected in each country,

pokazuje koliko ima zaraženih u svakoj zemlji,

and the color is the continent.

a boja predstavlja kontinent.

Now, you can see United States, in 1983,

Sada, možete da vidite SAD 1983. godine,

had a very low percentage infected,

je imala mali procenat zaraženih,

but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble.

ali zbog velike populacije, mehurić je ipak veliki.

There were quite many people infected in the United States.

Bilo je dosta inficiranih ljudi u SAD.

And, up there, you see Uganda.

I gore, vidite Ugandu.

They had almost five percent infected,

Oni su imali skoro 5 odsto zaraženih

and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then.

i dosta veliki mehurić uprkos tome što su tada bili mala zemlja.

And they were probably the most infected country in the world.

I oni su verovatno imali najviše zaraženih u svetu.

Now, what has happened?

Sada, šta se dogodilo?

Now you have understood the graph

Razumeli ste grafik

and now, in the next 60 seconds,

i u sledećih 60 sekundi

prikazaćemo HIV epidemiju u svetu.

we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.

But first, I have a new invention here.

Ali prvo, ovde imam novi izum.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.

Učvrstio sam snop lasera.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

So, ready, steady, go!

Tako, tri, četiri, sad!

First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Prvo, imamo brz rast u Ugandi i Zimbabveu.

They went upwards like this.

Otišli su na gore ovako.

In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand --

U Aziji, prva zemlja koja je bila teško zaražena je Tajland -

they reached one to two percent.

došli su do 1-2 odsto.

Then, Uganda started to turn back,

Onda, Uganda je krenula nazad,

whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed,

dok je Zimbabve odleteo gore,

and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency.

i nekoliko godina kasnije Južna Afrika je imala strašan rast učestalosti HIV-a.

Look, India got many infected,

Pogledajte, Indija ima puno zaraženih,

but had a low level.

ali je imala nisku stopu.

And almost the same happens here.

I slično se događa ovde.

See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down,

Vidite, Uganda ide nadole, Zimbabve ide nadole,

Russia went to one percent.

Rusija je otišla na 1 odsto.

In the last two to three years,

U poslednje dve do tri godine,

we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world.

došli smo do mirnog stanja HIV epidemije u svetu.

25 years it took.

Trebalo je 25 godina.

But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better,

Ali, mirno stanje ne znači da se stvari poboljšavaju,

it's just that they have stopped getting worse.

nego da se ne pogoršavaju.

And it has -- the steady state is, more or less,

I ima - mirno stanje je, manje više,

jedan odsto odraslih u svetu je zaraženo HIV-om.

one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected.

It means 30 to 40 million people,

To znači 30 do 40 miliona,

the whole of California -- every person,

cela Kalifornija - svaka osoba,

that's more or less what we have today in the world.

to je ono što manje-više imamo danas u svetu.

Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana.

Sada, ponovo ću brzo pustiti Bocvanu.

Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa,

Bocvana - zemlja gornje srednje klase u južnoj Africi,

democratic government, good economy,

demokratska vlada, dobra ekonomija,

and this is what happened there.

i evo šta se tu dogodilo.

They started low, they skyrocketed,

Počeli su nisko i odleteli su,

they peaked up there in 2003,

vrhunac im je bio 2003. godine,

and now they are down.

i sada su u padu.

Ali padaju polako,

But they are falling only slowly,

jer u Bocvani, sa dobrom ekonomijom i vladom,

because in Botswana, with good economy and governance,

they can manage to treat people.

mogu da leče ljude.

And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS.

I ako se inficirani leče, neće umreti od SIDE.

These percentages won't come down

Ovi procenti se neće spustiti

jer ljudi mogu da prežive od 10 do 20 godina.

because people can survive 10 to 20 years.

So there's some problem with these metrics now.

Tako da sada ima problema sa ovim merenjem.

But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here,

Ali siromašnije zemlje u Africi, sa malim primanjima ovde dole,

there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected,

tu stope procenata inficiranih brže padaju,

because people still die.

jer ljudi i dalje umiru.

In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR,

Uprkos PEPFAR-u, velikodušnom PEPFAR-u,

all people are not reached by treatment,

lečenje ne dobijaju svi,

a samo 60 odsto onih koji se leče u siromašnim zemljama,

and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries,

only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years.

nastavlja lečenje nakon 2 godine.

It's not realistic with lifelong treatment

Lečenje koje traje čitav život nije realistično rešenje

for everyone in the poorest countries.

za sve u najsiromašnijim zemljama.

But it's very good that what is done is being done.

Ali je veoma dobro da se radi ono što se radi.

But focus now is back on prevention.

Ali je fokus opet na prevenciji.

It is only by stopping the transmission

Samo će zaustavljanjem prenosa

that the world will be able to deal with it.

svet moći da se nosi sa time.

Lekovi su skupi - da smo imali vakcine,

Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine,

ili kada ih dobijemo, to je efektivnije -

or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective --

ali lekovi su mnogo skupi za siromašne.

but the drugs are very costly for the poor.

Not the drug in itself, but the treatment

Ne sam lek, nego lečenje

and the care which is needed around it.

i nega koja ide uz to.

So, when we look at the pattern,

Tako da, kada pogledamo šablon,

one thing comes out very clearly:

jedna stvar je jasna:

you see the blue bubbles

vidite plave mehuriće

i ljudi kažu da je HIV dosta rasprostranjen u Africi.

and people say HIV is very high in Africa.

I would say, HIV is very different in Africa.

Ja bih rekao, HIV je dosta drugačiji u Africi.

You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world

Naći ćete najvišu stopu HIV-a u svetu

in African countries,

u afričkim zemljama,

and yet you'll find Senegal, down here --

a ipak ćete naći Senegal, ovde dole -

the same rate as United States.

ista stopa kao u SAD-u.

And you'll find Madagascar,

I naći ćete Madagaskar,

and you'll find a lot of African countries

i dosta afričih zemalja

about as low as the rest of the world.

s niskom stopom kao kod ostatka sveta.

To je strašno pojednostavljivanje da postoji jedna Afrika

It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa

and things go on in one way in Africa.

i da stvari rade na samo jedan način u Africi.

We have to stop that.

Moramo da zaustavimo to.

It's not respectful, and it's not very clever

Nema poštovanja, i nije baš pametno

to think that way.

da se razmišlja tako.

(Aplauz)

(Applause)

I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States.

Imao sam sreću da živim i radim neko vreme u SAD-u.

I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different.

I video sam da su Solt Lejk Siti i San Francisko različiti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference.

Tako je i u Africi - ima dosta razlika.

So, why is it so high? Is it war?

I zašto je toliko visoko? Zbog rata?

No, it's not. Look here.

Ne, nije. Pogledajte ovde.

War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent.

Ratom podeljen Kongo je ovde dole - 2, 3, 4 odsto.

And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent.

Ovo je miroljubiva susedna zemlja, Zambija - 15 odsto.

And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo --

I postoji dobro istraživanje o izbeglicama iz Konga -

they have two, three percent infected,

imaju 2, 3 odsto zaraženih,

and peaceful Zambia -- much higher.

a miroljubiva Zambija - mnogo više.

There are now studies clearly showing

Sada postoje istraživanja koja jasno pokazuju

that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible,

da su ratovi strašni, silovanja su strašna,

but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.

ali ovo nije uzrok za visoke stope u Africi.

So, is it poverty?

Dakle, da li je zbog siromaštva?

Well if you look at the macro level,

Pa, ako pogledate na makro nivou,

it seems more money, more HIV.

izgleda da što je više novca, više je HIV-a.

But that's very simplistic,

Ali je to previše jednostavno,

so let's go down and look at Tanzania.

hajdemo dole, da vidimo Tanzaniju.

I will split Tanzania in five income groups,

Podeliću Tanzaniju na 5 grupa po primanjima,

from the highest income to the lowest income,

od najviših do najnižih,

and here we go.

i idemo.

The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich --

One sa najvišim primanjima, one kojima je bolje, ne bih rekao bogate,

they have higher HIV.

oni imaju višu stopu HIV-a.

The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent,

Razlika je od 11 do 4 odsto

and it is even bigger among women.

i još je viša kod žena.

There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research,

Postoji dosta toga što smo mislili, a što sada dobro istraživanje

done by African institutions and researchers

afričkih institucija i istraživača

together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case.

zajedno sa međunarodnim istraživačima, pokazuje da nismo bili u pravu.

So, this is the difference within Tanzania.

Tako, ovo je razlika unutar Tanzanije.

And, I can't avoid showing Kenya.

Ne mogu, a da ne pokažem Keniju.

Look here at Kenya.

Pogledajte Keniju.

I've split Kenya in its provinces.

Podelio sam Keniju u njene provincije.

Here it goes.

Evo ide.

See the difference within one African country --

Vidite razliku unutar jedne afričke zemlje -

it goes from very low level to very high level,

ide od veoma niske stope do visoke,

i većina provincija u Keniji je dosta skromna.

and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.

So, what is it then?

Pa šta je u pitanju?

Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries?

Zašto vidimo ove ekstremno visoke stope u nekim zemljama?

Well, it is more common with multiple partners,

Pa, to je zbog više partnera,

there is less condom use,

manje se koriste kondomi

and there is age-disparate sex --

i postoji razlika u godinama kod partnera -

that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women.

to jest, stariji muškarci teže da imaju seks sa mlađim ženama.

We see higher rates in younger women than younger men

Vidimo više stope kod mlađih žena nego kod mlađih muškaraca

u puno zemalja koje su najviše pogođene.

in many of these highly affected countries.

But where are they situated?

Ali gde se nalaze?

Zameniću mehuriće za mapu.

I will swap the bubbles to a map.

Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population

Pogledajte, one sa najviše zaraženih imaju 4 odsto svetske populacije

and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected.

i oni drže 50 odsto zaraženih HIV-om.

HIV exists all over the world.

HIV postoji u celom svetu.

Look, you have bubbles all over the world here.

Pogledajte, ovde imate mehuriće po celom svetu.

Brazil has many HIV-infected.

Brazil ima puno zaraženih HIV-om.

Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high.

Arapske zemlje nemaju puno, ali ih ima dosta u Iranu.

They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran.

U Iranu takođe postoje zavisnost od heroina i prostitucija.

India has many because they are many.

Indija ima dosta jer ih je puno.

Jugoistočna Azija, i tako dalje.

Southeast Asia, and so on.

Ali postoji jedan deo Afrike -

But, there is one part of Africa --

a težak deo je, istovremeno,

and the difficult thing is, at the same time,

not to make a uniform statement about Africa,

ne napraviti homogenu izjavu o Africi,

not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.

ne doći do jednostavnih ideja o tome, s jedne strane.

On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case,

S druge strane, pokušavam da kažem da to nije slučaj,

because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now.

jer sada postoji naučni konsenzus o ovom šablonu.

UNAIDS have done good data available, finally,

UNAIDS je konačno dobre podatke

about the spread of HIV.

o širenju HIV-a učinio dostupnim.

It could be concurrency.

Možda je u pitanju više partnera.

It could be some virus types.

Možda ima više tipova virusa.

It could be that there is other things

Možda postoje druge stvari

which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency.

zbog kojih se prenos češće dešava.

After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex,

Posle svega, ako ste potpuno zdravi i imate heteroseksualni seks,

the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000.

rizik za infekciju u jednom odnosu je 1 prema 1000.

Don't jump to conclusions now on how to

Nemojte da odlučujete sada o svom

behave tonight and so on.

ponašanju večeras i nadalje.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Ali - i ako se nalazite u nezavidnoj situaciji,

But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation,

more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.

više seksualno prenosivih bolesti, može da bude 1 prema 100.

But what we think is that it could be concurrency.

Ali mislimo da je u pitanju više partnera.

And what is concurrency?

Šta to znači?

In Sweden, we have no concurrency.

U Švedskoj, mi to nemamo.

We have serial monogamy.

Imamo serijsku monogamiju.

Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring.

Vodka, doček Nove godine - novi partner za proleće.

Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall.

Vodka, doček leta - novi partner za jesen.

Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know?

Vodka - i tako dalje, znate?

And you collect a big number of exes.

I sakupite puno bivših.

And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic --

I imamo strašnu epidemiju hlamidije -

terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years.

strašnu epidemiju hlamidije

koja ostaje puno godina.

HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection

HIV ima vrhunac 3 do 6 nedelja nakon infekcije

and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month

i zato, više partnera u mesecu

is much more dangerous for HIV than others.

je veća opasnost za HIV nego za drugo.

Probably, it's a combination of this.

Verovatno je kombinacija ovog.

I raduje me to da napredujemo

And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now

ka činjenici da možemo da se osvrnemo na ovo.

towards fact when we look at this.

You can get this chart, free.

Možete da dobijete ovaj grafikon, besplatno.

We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site.

Stavili smo UNAIDS podatke na sajt Gepmajndera.

And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future

I nadamo se da, kada budemo radili nešto u budućnosti povodom globalnih problema,

we will not only have the heart,

nećemo imati samo srce,

we will not only have the money,

niti samo novac,

but we will also use the brain.

već da ćemo koristiti i mozak.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Aplauz)

(Applause)