Hans Rosling on HIV: New facts and stunning data visuals

Translator: Nika Kotnik Reviewer: Mojca Miklavec

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

AIDS was discovered 1981; the virus, 1983.

AIDS je bil odkrit leta 1981; virus leta 1983.

These Gapminder bubbles show you

Ti Gapminderjevi mehurčki prikazujejo,

how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world,

kako je bil virus leta 1983 razširjen po svetu,

or how we estimate that it was.

oziroma našo oceno razširjenosti.

What we are showing here is --

Kar vam kažemo tu, je –

on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults.

na tej osi tu vam kažem odstotek okuženih odraslih.

And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income.

In na tej osi tu vam kažem zaslužek v dolarjih po osebi.

And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here,

In velikost teh mehurčkov, velikost mehurčkov tu,

that shows how many are infected in each country,

nam kaže, koliko je okuženih v vsaki državi,

and the color is the continent.

in barva pove kontinent.

Now, you can see United States, in 1983,

Lahko vidite, da je ZDA leta 1983

had a very low percentage infected,

imela zelo nizek odstotek okuženih,

but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble.

ampak zaradi velikega števila prebivalcev, je to kar velik mehurček.

There were quite many people infected in the United States.

Kar veliko ljudi je bilo okuženih v ZDA.

And, up there, you see Uganda.

In – tu zgoraj – vidite Ugando.

They had almost five percent infected,

Imeli so skoraj pet odstotkov okuženih

and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then.

in kar velik mehurček, čeprav so bili takrat majhna država.

And they were probably the most infected country in the world.

In najbrž so bili najbolj okužena država na svetu.

Now, what has happened?

Torej, kaj se je zgodilo?

Now you have understood the graph

Sedaj, ko razumete graf,

and now, in the next 60 seconds,

in zdaj, v naslednjih 60-ih sekundah,

we will play the HIV epidemic in the world.

bomo zaigrali HIV epidemijo v svetu.

But first, I have a new invention here.

Ampak najprej imam tu nov izum.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer.

Strdil sem žarek laserskega kazalca.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

So, ready, steady, go!

Torej: pripravljeni, pozor, gremo!

First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Najprej imamo hitro rast v Ugandi in Zimbabveju.

They went upwards like this.

Dvigovala sta se takole.

In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand --

V Aziji je bila prva zelo okužena država Tajska –

they reached one to two percent.

dosegli so en do dva procenta.

Then, Uganda started to turn back,

Potem se je Uganda začela vračati,

whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed,

medtem ko je Zimbabve pognalo v nebo

and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency.

in nekaj let kasneje je imela Južna Afrika grozen porast pogostosti HIV-a.

Look, India got many infected,

Poglejte – Indija je imela mnogo okuženih,

but had a low level.

toda nizko stopnjo okuženosti.

And almost the same happens here.

In skoraj enako se zgodi tu.

See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down,

Vidite, Uganda se spušča, Zimbabve se spušča,

Russia went to one percent.

Rusija je šla do enega procenta.

In the last two to three years,

V zadnjih dveh do treh letih

we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world.

smo dosegli stabilno stanje epidemije HIV v svetu.

25 years it took.

25 let je bilo potrebnih.

But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better,

Ampak stabilno stanje ne pomeni, da se stvari izboljšujejo,

it's just that they have stopped getting worse.

pomeni samo to, da se ne slabšajo več.

And it has -- the steady state is, more or less,

In je – stabilno stanje je bolj ali manj

one percent of the adult world population is HIV-infected.

en odstotek odrasle svetovne populacije je zdaj okužene z virusom HIV.

It means 30 to 40 million people,

To pomeni 30 do 40 milijonov ljudi,

the whole of California -- every person,

celotna Kalifornija – vsak posameznik,

that's more or less what we have today in the world.

to je bolj ali manj to, kar imamo danes v svetu.

Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana.

Naj vam sedaj še enkrat na hitro odvrtim Bocvano.

Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa,

Bocvana – država v južni Afriki s prihodki v zgornji sredini,

democratic government, good economy,

z demokratično vlado, dobrim gospodarstvom –

and this is what happened there.

in tam se je zgodilo tole.

They started low, they skyrocketed,

Začeli so nizko, poleteli v nebo

they peaked up there in 2003,

in dosegli vrh tam zgoraj v letu 2003

and now they are down.

in sedaj se spuščajo.

Ampak padajo le počasi,

But they are falling only slowly,

ker si v Bocvani, z dobrim gospodarstvom in vodenjem,

because in Botswana, with good economy and governance,

they can manage to treat people.

lahko privoščijo zdraviti ljudi.

And if people who are infected are treated, they don't die of AIDS.

In če zdravimo ljudi, ki so okuženi, ne umrejo zaradi AIDS-a.

These percentages won't come down

Ti procenti se ne bodo znižali,

ker lahko ljudje preživijo 10 do 20 let.

because people can survive 10 to 20 years.

So there's some problem with these metrics now.

Tako da je še nekaj težav s temi številkami.

But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here,

Ampak v revnejših državah v Afriki, državah z nizkimi dohodki tu spodaj,

there the rates fall faster, of the percentage infected,

tam odstotki okuženih padajo hitreje,

because people still die.

zato ker ljudje še vedno umirajo.

In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR,

Kljub PEPFAR-ju, radodarnemu PEPFAR-ju,

all people are not reached by treatment,

vseh ljudi zdravljenje ne doseže,

in od tistih, ki jih zdravljenje doseže v revnih državah,

and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries,

only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years.

jih samo 60 odstotkov ostane na zdravljenju po dveh letih.

It's not realistic with lifelong treatment

Doživljenjsko zdravljenje ni realistično

for everyone in the poorest countries.

za vse v najrevnejših državah.

But it's very good that what is done is being done.

Ampak je zelo dobro, da se počne, kar se počne.

But focus now is back on prevention.

Ampak ponovno se moramo osredotočiti na preventivo.

It is only by stopping the transmission

Samo s preprečevanjem prenašanja virusa

that the world will be able to deal with it.

se bo svet lahko spopadel s tem.

Zdravila so predraga – če bi imeli cepivo,

Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine,

or when we will get the vaccine, that's something more effective --

ali ko bomo dobili cepivo, bo to nekaj bolj učinkovitega –

but the drugs are very costly for the poor.

ampak zdravila so zelo draga za revne.

Not the drug in itself, but the treatment

Ne zdravilo samo, ampak zdravljenje

and the care which is needed around it.

in oskrba, ki je potrebna zraven.

So, when we look at the pattern,

Torej, ko si pogledamo vzorec,

one thing comes out very clearly:

ena stvar jasno izstopa:

you see the blue bubbles

vidite modre mehurčke

in rečete, da je v Afriki zelo veliko HIV-a.

and people say HIV is very high in Africa.

I would say, HIV is very different in Africa.

Jaz bi rekel, da je HIV v Afriki zelo raznolik.

You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world

Najvišjo stopnjo HIV-a na svetu boste našli

in African countries,

v Afriških državah,

and yet you'll find Senegal, down here --

a vseeno boste našli Senegal tu spodaj –

the same rate as United States.

z enako stopnjo okuženosti kot v ZDA.

And you'll find Madagascar,

In našli boste Madagaskar

and you'll find a lot of African countries

in našli boste veliko Afriških držav,

about as low as the rest of the world.

ki so približno enako nizko kot preostanek sveta.

To je grozno poenostavljanje, da je samo ena Afrika

It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa

and things go on in one way in Africa.

in da se stvari v Afriki odvijajo na en način.

We have to stop that.

S tem moramo prenehati.

It's not respectful, and it's not very clever

Ni spoštljivo in ni preveč pametno

to think that way.

misliti na tak način.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States.

Imel sem srečo, da sem nekaj časa živel in delal v ZDA.

I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different.

Ugotovil sem, da sta si Salt Lake City in San Francisco različna.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference.

In tako je tudi v Afriki – obstaja veliko razlik.

So, why is it so high? Is it war?

Torej, zakaj je tako visoko? Zaradi vojne?

No, it's not. Look here.

Ne, ni. Poglejte sem.

War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent.

Od vojne opustošeni Kongo je tu spodaj – dva, tri, štiri odstotke.

And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent.

In to je miroljubna Zambija, sosednja država – 15 odstotkov.

And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo --

In obstajajo dobre študije o beguncih, ki so prišli iz Konga –

they have two, three percent infected,

imajo dva, tri odstotke okuženih;

and peaceful Zambia -- much higher.

in miroljubna Zambija – veliko več.

There are now studies clearly showing

Sedaj imamo študije, ki jasno kažejo,

that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible,

da so vojne strašne, da so posilstva strašna,

but this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa.

ampak to ni glavni vzrok za visoke stopnje okuženosti v Afriki.

So, is it poverty?

Torej, je to revščina?

Well if you look at the macro level,

No, če pogledamo na makro ravni,

it seems more money, more HIV.

se zdi, da več kot je denarja, več je HIV-a.

But that's very simplistic,

Ampak to je zelo poenostavljeno,

so let's go down and look at Tanzania.

zato pojdimo dol in si poglejmo Tanzanijo.

I will split Tanzania in five income groups,

Razdelil bom Tanzanijo v pet skupin glede na prihodek,

from the highest income to the lowest income,

od najvišjega prihodka do najnižjega prihodka,

and here we go.

in gremo.

The ones with the highest income, the better off -- I wouldn't say rich --

Tisti z najvišjim prihodkom, bolj premožni – ne bi rekel bogati –

they have higher HIV.

imajo več HIV-a.

Razlika gre od 11-ih odstotkov dol do štirih odstotkov,

The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent,

and it is even bigger among women.

in je še večja med ženskami.

There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research,

Veliko je stvari, ki smo jih mislili, za katere zdaj dobre raziskave,

done by African institutions and researchers

ki so jih naredile Afriške institucije in raziskovalci

together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case.

skupaj z mednarodnimi raziskovalci, kažejo, da ni tako.

So, this is the difference within Tanzania.

To so torej razlike v Tanzaniji.

And, I can't avoid showing Kenya.

In ne morem se izogniti Keniji.

Look here at Kenya.

Poglejte sem Kenijo.

I've split Kenya in its provinces.

Kenijo sem razdelil na njene province.

Here it goes.

Pa gremo.

See the difference within one African country --

Vidite razlike znotraj ene Afriške države –

it goes from very low level to very high level,

gre od zelo nizke stopnje do zelo visoke stopnje

and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest.

in večina provinc v Keniji je kar skromna.

So, what is it then?

Torej, kaj je potem?

Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries?

Zakaj vidimo te ekstremno visoke vrednosti v nekaterih državah?

Well, it is more common with multiple partners,

No, bolj je pogosto pri večih partnerjih,

there is less condom use,

manj je uporabe kondoma,

and there is age-disparate sex --

in tu je še starostno različen seks –

that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women.

to je, ko imajo starejši moški spolne odnose z mlajšimi ženskami.

We see higher rates in younger women than younger men

Vidimo višje stopnje okuženosti pri mlajših ženskah kot pri mlajših moških

in many of these highly affected countries.

v veliko od teh držav z visoko stopnjo okuženosti.

But where are they situated?

Ampak, kje se nahajajo?

I will swap the bubbles to a map.

Zamenjal bom mehurčke za zemljevid.

Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population

Poglejte, tiste z visoko okuženostjo predstavljajo 4 odstotke celotne populacije

and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected.

in imajo 50 odstotkov okuženih s HIV-om.

HIV exists all over the world.

HIV obstaja po celem svetu.

Look, you have bubbles all over the world here.

Poglejte, imate mehurčke po celem svetu.

Brazil has many HIV-infected.

Brazilija ima mnogo okuženih s HIV-om.

Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high.

Arabske dežele ne tako zelo, ampak Iran je precej visoko.

They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran.

V Iranu imajo odvisnike od heroina in tudi prostitucijo.

India has many because they are many.

Indija jih ima mnogo, ker jih je mnogo.

Southeast Asia, and so on.

Jugovzhodna Azija in tako naprej.

But, there is one part of Africa --

Ampak, tu je en del Afrike –

and the difficult thing is, at the same time,

in zelo težko je istočasno

not to make a uniform statement about Africa,

ne posploševati o Afriki,

not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand.

ne priti po eni strani do preprostih idej, zakaj je tako.

On the other hand, try to say that this is not the case,

Po drugi strani poskušajmo reči, da temu ni tako,

because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now.

ker sedaj obstaja znanstveni konsenz o tem vzorcu.

UNAIDS have done good data available, finally,

UNAIDS ima sedaj končno dostopne dobre podatke

about the spread of HIV.

o razširjenosti HIV-a.

It could be concurrency.

Lahko bi bila kriva sočasnost.

It could be some virus types.

Lahko bi bili nekateri tipi virusov.

It could be that there is other things

Lahko, da so tu druge stvari,

which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency.

zaradi katerih se prenos zgodi z večjo frekvenco.

After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex,

Navsezadnje, če si popolnoma zdrav in si heteroseksualec,

the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000.

je tveganje za okužbo pri enem spolnem odnosu ena proti 1000.

Don't jump to conclusions now on how to

Ne sklepajte zdaj prehitro o tem,

behave tonight and so on.

kaj početi danes zvečer itd.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation,

Ampak – če ste v neugodni situaciji,

more sexually transmitted diseases, it can be one in 100.

več spolno prenosljivih bolezni, je verjetnost lahko 1 proti 100.

But what we think is that it could be concurrency.

Ampak mi mislimo, da bi lahko bila sočasnost.

And what is concurrency?

In kaj je sočasnost?

In Sweden, we have no concurrency.

Na Švedskem nimamo sočasnosti.

We have serial monogamy.

Imamo serijsko monogamijo.

Vodka, New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring.

Vodka, novo leto … nov partner za pomlad.

Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall.

Vodka, kresna noč … nov partner za jesen.

Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know?

Vodka … in tako dalje, saj veste?

And you collect a big number of exes.

In nabereš veliko število bivših partnerjev.

And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic --

In imamo strašno epidemijo klamidije –

terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years.

strašno epidemijo klamidije, ki se drži mnogo let.

HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection

HIV ima vrh tri do šest tednov po infekciji

and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month

in zato je imeti več kot enega partnerja v istem mesecu

is much more dangerous for HIV than others.

veliko bolj nevarno pri HIV-u kot pri drugih.

Probably, it's a combination of this.

Najbrž gre za kombinacijo tega.

And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now

In kar me zelo veseli, je, da se zdaj približujemo

towards fact when we look at this.

dejstvom, ko pogledamo tole.

You can get this chart, free.

Ta graf lahko dobite, zastonj.

We have uploaded UNAIDS data on the Gapminder site.

Naložili smo UNAIDS podatke na Gapminderjevo stran.

And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future

In upamo, da ko bomo v prihodnosti ukrepali glede globalnih problemov,

we will not only have the heart,

ne bomo imeli samo srca,

we will not only have the money,

ne bomo imeli samo denarja,

but we will also use the brain.

ampak bomo tudi uporabili možgane.

Thank you very much.

Najlepša hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)