The mathematics of love | Hannah Fry

1,283,770 views ・ 2015-02-13

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:12
Today I want to talk to you about the mathematics of love.
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Danas želim da vam pričam o matematici ljubavi.
Mislim da svi možemo da se složimo da su matematičari
00:17
Now, I think that we can all agree
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00:18
that mathematicians are famously excellent at finding love.
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čuveni po tome da sjajno pronalaze ljubav.
00:22
(Laughter)
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00:23
But it's not just because of our dashing personalities,
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Ali to nije samo zbog naših očaravajućih ličnosti,
00:26
superior conversational skills and excellent pencil cases.
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vrhunskih veština razgovora i odličnih pernica za olovke.
To je i zbog toga zato što smo zapravo uložili mnogo truda u proračunavanje
00:32
It's also because we've actually done an awful lot of work into the maths
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00:35
of how to find the perfect partner.
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načina za pronalaženje savršenog partnera.
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper on the subject, which is entitled,
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U mom omiljenom radu na ovu temu, koji se zove
"Zašto nemam devojku" - (Smeh) -
00:42
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
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00:43
(Laughter)
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00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate his chances of finding love.
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Piter Bakus pokušava da oceni svoje šanse da pronađe ljubav.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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Piter nije pohlepan čovek.
00:51
Of all of the available women in the UK,
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Od svih slobodnih žena u Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu,
00:53
all Peter's looking for is somebody who lives near him,
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Piter samo traži nekoga ko živi blizu njega,
nekoga ko je podesnog starosnog doba,
00:57
somebody in the right age range,
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00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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nekoga sa fakultetskom diplomom,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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nekoga s kime bi se verovatno dobro slagao,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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nekoga ko je verovatno privlačan
01:05
somebody who's likely to find him attractive.
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i nekoga ko bi verovatno njega smatrao privlačnim.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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Došao je do procene od 26 žena u celom Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu.
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
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Piteru, ne izgleda baš dobro, zar ne?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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Da stavimo to u kontekst,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer than the best estimates
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to je oko 400 puta manje od procena
01:24
of how many intelligent extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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broja inteligentnih oblika života u svemiru.
01:28
And it also gives Peter a 1 in 285,000 chance
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To Piteru takođe daje šansu od 1 u 285 000
01:33
of bumping into any one of these special ladies
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da naleti na jednu od ovih posebnih dama
01:35
on a given night out.
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bilo koje veče.
01:37
I'd like to think that's why mathematicians
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Mislim da se matematičari baš zbog toga
01:39
don't really bother going on nights out anymore.
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više naročito ni ne trude da izlaze.
Stvar je u tome da ja lično
01:43
The thing is that I personally don't subscribe
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nisam tako pesimističnog stava.
01:45
to such a pessimistic view.
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01:47
Because I know, just as well as all of you do,
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Zato što ja znam, baš kao i svi vi,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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da ljubav zapravo ne funkcioniše tako.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered and rational and easily predictable.
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Ljudske emocije nisu uredno složene i racionalne i lako predvidive.
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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Ali takođe znam da to ne znači
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something that it can offer us,
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da matematika nema nešto da nam ponudi,
02:02
because, love, as with most of life, is full of patterns
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zato što je ljubav, kao i većina stvari u životu, prepuna šablona,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately, all about the study of patterns.
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a matematika se suštinski bavi proučavanjem šablona.
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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Šabloni za sve od predviđanja vremena do variranja vrednosti na berzi,
02:15
to the movement of the planets or the growth of cities.
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preko kretanja planeta do rasta gradova.
02:18
And if we're being honest, none of those things
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Ako ćemo biti iskreni, ništa od toga
02:20
are exactly neatly ordered and easily predictable, either.
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takođe nije uredno složeno i lako predvidivo.
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics is so powerful that it has the potential
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Verujem da je matematika toliko moćna da ima potencijal
da nam ponudi novi način gledanja skoro na sve.
02:30
to offer us a new way of looking at almost anything.
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02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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Čak i nešto tako misteriozno poput ljubavi.
02:36
And so, to try to persuade you
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Da bih pokušala da vas ubedim u to
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent and relevant mathematics is,
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kako je matematika neverovatna, odlična i bitna,
02:43
I want to give you my top three mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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želim da vam dam moja najbolja tri matematički dokaziva saveta za ljubav.
02:50
(Laughter)
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U redu, Savet broj 1:
02:52
OK, so Top Tip #1:
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kako biti uspešan u sastancima preko interneta.
02:54
How to win at online dating.
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02:58
So my favorite online dating website is OkCupid,
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Moj omiljeni sajt za upoznavanje preko interneta je OkCupid,
03:01
not least because it was started by a group of mathematicians.
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dobrim delom zbog toga što ga je osnovala grupa matematičara.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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Pošto su matematičari,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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skupljali su podatke
03:08
on everybody who uses their site for almost a decade.
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o svakom ko koristi njihov sajt, skoro deceniju.
Pokušali su da nađu šablone u tome
03:12
And they've been trying to search for patterns
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03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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kako pričamo o sebi
03:16
and the way that we interact with each other
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i u načinu na koji međusobno komuniciramo
03:18
on an online dating website.
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na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
03:19
And they've come up with some seriously interesting findings.
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Došli su do nekih veoma zanimljivih rezultata.
03:22
But my particular favorite
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Ali moj omiljeni je taj
03:24
is that it turns out that on an online dating website,
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da se ispostavlja da na internet sajtu za upoznavanje
03:27
how attractive you are does not dictate how popular you are,
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to koliko ste privlačni ne povlači to koliko ste popularni,
03:33
and actually, having people think that you're ugly
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i zapravo kada ljudi misle da ste ružni,
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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to može da vam ide u prilog.
03:39
(Laughter)
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03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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Hajde da vam pokažem kako ovo funkcioniše.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary section of OkCupid,
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U delu OkCupid-a koji je srećom dobrovoljan,
03:46
you are allowed to rate how attractive you think people are
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možete oceniti koliko mislite da je neko privlačan,
03:49
on a scale between one and five.
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na skali od jedan do pet.
03:51
Now, if we compare this score, the average score,
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Ako uporedite ovaj, prosečan rezultat,
03:54
to how many messages a selection of people receive,
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sa time koliko poruka dobije određeni broj ljudi,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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možete otprilike da shvatite kako je
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity on an online dating website.
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povezana privlačnost sa popularnošću na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
Ovo je grafikon do koga su došli ljudi iz OkCupid-a.
04:04
This is the graph the OkCupid guys have come up with.
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04:07
And the important thing to notice is that it's not totally true
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Bitno je primetiti da nije potpuno tačno
04:10
that the more attractive you are, the more messages you get.
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da dobijate više poruka, što ste privlačniji.
04:13
But the question arises then of what is it about people up here
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Ali onda dolazi do pitanja šta je to sa ovim ljudima
koji su toliko popularniji od ovih ljudi dole,
04:17
who are so much more popular than people down here,
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04:21
even though they have the same score of attractiveness?
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iako imaju isti rezultat na skali privlačnosti?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just straightforward looks that are important.
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Razlog leži u tome što nije bitan izgled sam po sebi.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their findings with an example.
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Dozvolite da pokušam da prikažem njihove rezultate kroz primer.
04:31
So if you take someone like Portia de Rossi, for example,
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Recimo, ako uzmete nekog poput Porše de Rosi,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi is a very beautiful woman.
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svi se slažu da je Porša de Rosi prelepa žena.
04:39
Nobody thinks that she's ugly, but she's not a supermodel, either.
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Niko ne misli da je ružna, ali nije ni supermodel.
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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Ako uporedite Poršu de Rosi s nekim poput Sare Džesike Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people, myself included, I should say,
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dosta ljudi bi reklo, uključujući i mene,
da je Sara Džesika Parker veoma zanosna
04:52
think that Sarah Jessica Parker is seriously fabulous
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04:56
and possibly one of the most beautiful creatures
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i verovatno jedno od najlepših stvorenja
04:58
to have ever have walked on the face of the Earth.
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koja su ikada hodala Zemljom.
05:01
But some other people, i.e., most of the Internet ...
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Ali neki drugi ljudi, npr. većina interneta,
05:06
(Laughter)
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izgleda da misle da ona izgleda pomalo kao konj. (Smeh)
05:08
seem to think that she looks a bit like a horse.
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05:10
(Laughter)
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05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people how attractive they thought
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Mislim da kada biste ljude pitali koliko misle da su atraktivne
05:17
Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sara Džesika Parker ili Porša de Rosi,
05:19
and you ask them to give them a score between one and five
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i zapitate ih da im daju rezultat na skali od jedan do pet,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out to have roughly the same score.
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mislim da bi se došlo do toga da je prosečan rezultat manje-više isti.
05:25
But the way that people would vote would be very different.
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Ali način na koji bi ljudi glasali bio bi potpuno drugačiji.
05:28
So Portia's scores would all be clustered around the four
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Poršini rezultati bili bi grupisani oko broja četiri
jer se svi slažu da je prelepa,
05:31
because everybody agrees that she's very beautiful,
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dok su kod Sare Džesike Parker mišljenja potpuno podeljena.
05:33
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker completely divides opinion.
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Kod njenih rezultata bilo bi velikih podela.
05:36
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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Ove podele su zapravo ono što se računa.
05:40
It's this spread that makes you more popular
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Ove podele su ono što vas čini popularnijim
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
05:45
So what that means then
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To onda znači
05:46
is that if some people think that you're attractive,
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da ako neki ljudi misle da ste privlačni,
05:48
you're actually better off
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bolje je ukoliko
05:50
having some other people think that you're a massive minger.
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neki drugi ljudi misle da ste potpuni grob.
05:55
That's much better than everybody just thinking
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To je puno bolje od toga da svi misle
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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da ste simpatična devojka iz komšiluka.
Mislim da ovo počinje da ima malo više smisla
06:00
Now, I think this begins to make a bit more sense
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06:02
when you think in terms of the people who are sending these messages.
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kada mislite o ljudima koji šalju ove poruke.
06:05
So let's say that you think somebody's attractive,
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Recimo da mislite da je neko privlačan,
ali sumnjate da drugi ljudi neće nužno biti toliko zainteresovani.
06:08
but you suspect that other people won't necessarily be that interested.
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Ovo znači da za vas ima manje konkurencije,
06:12
That means there's less competition for you
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06:14
and it's an extra incentive for you to get in touch.
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i to je dodatni podsticaj za vas da kontaktirate tu osobu.
06:17
Whereas compare that to if you think somebody is attractive
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Uporedite to sa nekim za koga mislite da je privlačan
ali sumnjate i da će svi ostali pomisliti da je ta osoba privlačna.
06:20
but you suspect that everybody is going to think they're attractive.
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06:23
Well, why would you bother humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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Iskreno, zašto uopšte da se trudite da biste se ponizili?
Ovde sledi veoma zanimljiv deo svega.
06:27
But here's where the really interesting part comes.
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Kada ljudi biraju slike koje koriste na internet sajtu za upoznavanje,
06:29
Because when people choose the pictures that they use on an online dating website,
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06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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često pokušavaju da umanje stvari
06:35
that they think some people will find unattractive.
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za koje misle da će neki ljudi smatrati neprivlačnim.
06:39
The classic example is people who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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Klasičan primer su ljudi koji možda imaju mali višak kilograma
06:43
deliberately choosing a very cropped photo,
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i namerno biraju prilično isečenu sliku,
06:45
(Laughter)
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ili na primer ćelavi muškarci,
06:47
or bald men, for example,
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06:48
deliberately choosing pictures where they're wearing hats.
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koji namerno biraju slike gde nose šešir.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite of what you should do
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Ovo je zapravo suprotno od onoga što treba da radite
ukoliko želite da budete uspešni.
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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06:55
You should really, instead,
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Umesto toga treba da iznesete to što mislite da vas čini drugačijim,
06:57
play up to whatever it is that makes you different,
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07:00
even if you think that some people will find it unattractive.
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čak i ako mislite da će neki ljudi to smatrati neprivlačnim.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you are just going to fancy you anyway,
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Jer ćete se svejedno svideti ljudima kojima biste se inače svideli,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't, well, they only play up to your advantage.
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a nebitni gubitnici kojima nećete, pa, oni vam samo idu u korist.
07:12
OK, Top Tip #2: How to pick the perfect partner.
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U redu, Savet 2: kako odabrati savršenog partnera.
07:14
So let's imagine then that you're a roaring success
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Zamislimo da ste na sceni za upoznavanje
07:17
on the dating scene.
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neverovatno uspešni.
07:19
But the question arises of how do you then convert that success
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Ali javlja se pitanje toga kako preobratiti taj uspeh
07:23
into longer-term happiness,
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u dugotrajnu sreću, a naročito
07:26
and in particular, how do you decide when is the right time to settle down?
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kako odlučiti kada je pravo vreme da se skrasite?
07:31
Now generally, it's not advisable to just cash in
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Uopšteno govoreći, nije preporučljivo da se zaletite
07:34
and marry the first person who comes along and shows you any interest at all.
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i venčate se prvom osobom koja naiđe
i pokaže neko interesovanje.
07:38
But, equally, you don't really want to leave it too long
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Ali isto tako, ne želite da čekate predugo
07:41
if you want to maximize your chance of long-term happiness.
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ukoliko želite da uvećate svoje šanse za dugotrajnu sreću.
07:44
As my favorite author, Jane Austen, puts it,
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Kako to kaže moja omiljena spisateljica, Džejn Ostin:
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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"Neudata žena od dvadeset sedam godina
07:50
can never hope to feel or inspire affection again."
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ne može se nadati da će ikad ponovo osetiti ili pobuditi naklonost".
07:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Mnogo ti hvala, Džejn. A šta pa ti znaš o ljubavi?
07:56
Thanks a lot, Jane.
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07:57
What do you know about love?
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07:58
(Laughter)
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07:59
So the question is then,
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Pitanje je onda sledeće,
08:01
how do you know when is the right time to settle down,
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kako znate kada je pravo vreme da se skrasite
ako uzmete u obzir sve ljude s kojima u životu možete izaći?
08:04
given all the people that you can date in your lifetime?
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Srećom, u matematici postoji nešto sjajno što možemo iskoristiti
08:07
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit of mathematics that we can use
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da nam pomogne, i naziva se teorijom optimalnog zaustavljanja.
08:10
to help us out here, called optimal stopping theory.
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Hajde da onda zamislimo
08:13
So let's imagine, then,
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da počnete da izlazite sa 15 godina
08:15
that you start dating when you're 15
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08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married by the time that you're 35.
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i u najboljem slučaju, želite da se venčate do svoje 35. godine.
08:21
And there's a number of people
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Postoji određeni broj ljudi
sa kojima biste potencijalno mogli da izađete u toku života,
08:23
that you could potentially date across your lifetime,
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08:25
and they'll be at varying levels of goodness.
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i oni variraju na skali dobrote.
08:27
Now the rules are that once you cash in and get married,
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Pravila su takva da jednom kada povučete potez i venčate se,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see what you could have had,
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ne možete da gledate unapred ka tome šta ste mogli da imate
08:32
and equally, you can't go back and change your mind.
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i isto tako ne možete da se vratite i da se predomislite.
08:35
In my experience at least,
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Makar iz mog iskustva,
08:37
I find that typically people don't much like being recalled
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otkrila sam da ljudi obično ne vole da ih se setite
08:39
years after being passed up for somebody else, or that's just me.
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godinama nakon što umesto njih odaberete nekog drugog, možda sam to samo ja.
08:45
So the math says then that what you should do
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Matematika vam kaže šta onda treba da uradite -
08:48
in the first 37 percent of your dating window,
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u prvih 37% svojih šansi za izlaske,
08:51
you should just reject everybody as serious marriage potential.
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jednostavno treba sve da odbijete zbog nedostatka potencijala za brak.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:57
And then, you should pick the next person that comes along
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Onda bi trebalo da odaberete sledeću osobu koja naiđe,
09:01
that is better than everybody that you've seen before.
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a koja je bolja od svakoga koga ste do tada videli.
09:04
So here's the example.
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Evo primera.
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be mathematically proven, in fact,
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Ako uradite ovo, zapravo se može matematički dokazati
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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da je ovo najbolji mogući način
09:10
of maximizing your chances of finding the perfect partner.
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da uvećate svoje šanse za pronalazak savršenog partnera.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that this method does come with some risks.
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Nažalost, moram da vam kažem da ovaj metod ima svoje rizike.
09:20
For instance, imagine if your perfect partner appeared
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Na primer, zamislite da vaš savršeni partner dođe
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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tokom vaših prvih 37 procenata.
09:28
Now, unfortunately, you'd have to reject them.
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Nažalost, moraćete ga odbiti.
09:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Ako pratite matematiku,
09:34
Now, if you're following the maths,
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bojim se da neće doći niko drugi
09:36
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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09:37
that's better than anyone you've seen before,
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ko je bolji od svih koje ste videli pre toga,
tako da morate da nastavite sa odbijanjem dok ne umrete sami.
09:40
so you have to go on rejecting everyone and die alone.
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09:44
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats ...
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Verovatno okruženi mačkama koje grickaju vaše ostatke.
09:48
(Laughter)
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09:49
nibbling at your remains.
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09:51
OK, another risk is, let's imagine, instead,
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U redu, drugi rizik - zamislite umesto ovoga
09:55
that the first people that you dated in your first 37 percent
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da su prvi ljudi sa kojima ste izašli u vaših prvih 37% procenata
09:58
are just incredibly dull, boring, terrible people.
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prosto neverovatno dosadni, bezlični, užasni ljudi.
10:02
That's OK, because you're in your rejection phase,
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To je u redu, jer ste u fazi odbijanja,
10:05
so that's fine, you can reject them.
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tako da je to okej, možete ih odbiti.
10:06
But then imagine the next person to come along
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Ali onda zamislite da je sledeća osoba koja naiđe
10:10
is just marginally less boring, dull and terrible ...
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samo neznatno manje dosadna, bezlična i užasna
10:13
(Laughter)
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10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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od svih koje ste do tada videli.
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths, I'm afraid you have to marry them ...
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Ako pratite matematiku, bojim se da se morate venčati tom osobom
10:20
(Laughter)
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i završiti u vezi koja je iskreno nezadovoljavajuća.
10:21
and end up in a relationship which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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10:24
Sorry about that.
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Izvinite.
10:25
But I do think that there's an opportunity here for Hallmark to cash in on
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Ali zaista mislim da ovde postoji prilika
da Holmark unovči ovo i zaista se prilagodi ovom tržištu.
10:29
and really cater for this market.
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10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
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Čestitka za Dan zaljubljenih poput ove. (Smeh)
10:32
(Laughter)
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"Moj dragi mužu, samo si neznatno manje užasan od prvih 37% ljudi
10:33
"My darling husband, you are marginally less terrible
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10:36
than the first 37 percent of people I dated."
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sa kojima sam izašla."
10:38
(Laughter)
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Ispalo je romantičnije nego što to obično uspevam.
10:40
It's actually more romantic than I normally manage.
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10:43
(Laughter)
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10:45
OK, so this method doesn't give you a 100 percent success rate,
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U redu, ovaj metod vam ne daje stopu uspeha od 100%,
10:49
but there's no other possible strategy that can do any better.
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ali ne postoji nijedna druga strategija koja ima bolji rezultat.
10:53
And actually, in the wild, there are certain types of fish
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Zapravo, u prirodi postoje određene vrste ribe
10:56
which follow and employ this exact strategy.
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koje prate i koriste baš ovu strategiju.
10:59
So they reject every possible suitor that turns up
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One odbijaju svakog mogućeg udvarača koji se pojavi
11:02
in the first 37 percent of the mating season,
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u prvih 37% procenata sezone parenja,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish that comes along after that window
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i onda odaberu prvu narednu ribu koja se pojavi nakon tog perioda,
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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koja je, ne znam, veća i muževnija
11:11
than all of the fish that they've seen before.
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od svih riba koje su do tada videle.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously, humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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Mislim da i mi ljudi ovo radimo podsvesno, na neki način.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time to play the field,
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Sebi dajemo malo vremena da istražimo igru,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace or whatever when we're young.
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steknemo osećaj za tržište ili slično, kada smo mladi.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously at potential marriage candidates
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Počnemo ozbiljno da gledamo potencijalne kandidate za brak
11:29
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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tek kada uđemo u srednje i kasne dvadesete.
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof, if ever it were needed,
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Mislim da je ovo krajnji dokaz, ako je ikad bio potreban,
da su svačiji mozgovi predodređeni da budu makar malo matematički.
11:35
that everybody's brains are prewired to be just a little bit mathematical.
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11:39
OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
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U redu, to je bio Savet broj dva.
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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Savet broj tri: kako izbeći razvod.
U redu, zamislimo da ste odabrali svog savršenog partnera
11:45
OK, so let's imagine then that you picked your perfect partner
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i navikavate se na doživotnu vezu sa tom osobom.
11:48
and you're settling into a lifelong relationship with them.
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11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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Želela bih da mislim da bi svako voleo da izbegne razvod,
11:56
apart from, I don't know, Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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osim možda supruge Pirsa Morgana.
12:00
(Laughter)
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12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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Ali tužna činjenica modernog života je to
12:04
that one in two marriages in the States ends in divorce,
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da se 1 u 2 braka u SAD završi razvodom,
12:07
with the rest of the world not being far behind.
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dok ostatak sveta nije daleko od toga.
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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Možda vam se može oprostiti
12:13
for thinking that the arguments that precede a marital breakup
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što mislite da svađe koje prethode rastavi braka
12:17
are not an ideal candidate for mathematical investigation.
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nisu idealne za matematičku istragu.
Prvo, veoma je teško znati
12:21
For one thing, it's very hard to know
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šta treba da merite ili šta treba da brojite.
12:23
what you should be measuring or what you should be quantifying.
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Ali ovo nije zaustavilo psihologa Džona Gotmana, koji je uradio upravo to.
12:26
But this didn't stop a psychologist, John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples having a conversation
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Gotman je posmatrao stotine parova u toku razgovora
i snimao u principu sve čega biste mogli da se setite.
12:37
and recorded, well, everything you can think of.
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12:40
So he recorded what was said in the conversation,
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Snimao je šta je rečeno u razgovoru,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
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snimao je provodljivost njihove kože,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
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njihove izraze lica,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
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otkucaje srca, krvni pritisak,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether or not the wife was actually always right,
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zapravo sve osim toga da li je supruga uvek bila u pravu ili ne,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
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a sasvim slučajno ona to jeste.
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
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Ali Gotman i njegov tim su zapravo pronašli
13:01
was that one of the most important predictors
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jedan od najbitnijih prediktora
toga da li će se par razvesti ili ne -
13:04
for whether or not a couple is going to get divorced
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koliko je svaki partner pozitivan ili negativan u razgovoru.
13:06
was how positive or negative each partner was being in the conversation.
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13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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Parovi sa niskom stopom rizika
13:13
scored a lot more positive points on Gottman's scale than negative.
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imali su puno više pozitivnih nego negativnih poena na Gotmanovoj skali.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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Sa druge strane, u lošim vezama,
13:20
by which I mean, probably going to get divorced,
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mislim na one gde će se par verovatno razvesti,
zatekli su se u spirali negativnosti.
13:23
they found themselves getting into a spiral of negativity.
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13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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Koristeći samo ove jednostavne ideje,
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
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Gotman je sa svojom grupom mogao da predvidi
13:32
whether a given couple was going to get divorced
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da li će se određeni par razvesti ili ne
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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sa preciznošću od 90%.
Ali sve dok se nije udružio sa matematičarom Džejmsom Marejem,
13:38
But it wasn't until he teamed up with a mathematician, James Murray,
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13:41
that they really started to understand
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nije razumeo
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals and how they occur.
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šta je uzrok ovih spirala negativnosti i kako se one dešavaju.
13:47
And the results that they found,
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Rezultati do kojih su došli
13:49
I think, are just incredibly impressively simple and interesting.
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po mom mišljenju, neverovatno su prosti i zanimljivi.
13:53
So these equations predict how the wife or husband is going to respond
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Ove jednačine predviđaju kako će muž ili supruga reagovati
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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kada je njihov red u razgovoru,
koliko pozitivni ili negativni će biti.
14:00
how positive or negative they're going to be.
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14:02
And these equations depend on
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Ove jednačine zavise od raspoloženja osobe
14:04
the mood of the person when they're on their own,
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kada je ona sama, od raspoloženja osobe
14:06
the mood of the person when they're with their partner,
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kada je ona sa svojim partnerom,
ali najbitnije je da zavise od toga
14:09
but most importantly, they depend on
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14:10
how much the husband and wife influence one another.
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koliko muž ili supruga utiču jedno na drugo.
Mislim da je u ovom trenutku bitno istaći
14:14
Now, I think it's important to point out at this stage,
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14:16
that these exact equations have also been shown
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da je dokazano da upravo ove jednačine
mogu savršeno da opišu
14:20
to be perfectly able at describing
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14:22
what happens between two countries in an arms race.
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šta se dešava između dve zemlje u toku trke za naoružavanje.
(Smeh)
14:27
(Laughter)
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14:30
So that an arguing couple spiraling into negativity
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Tako da je to - ljudi u zavadi koji srljaju u negativnost
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce
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i vise na ivici razvoda -
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to the beginning of a nuclear war.
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to je matematički jednako početku nuklearnog rata.
14:40
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Ali termin koji je zaista bitan u ovoj jednačini
14:43
But the really important term in this equation
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14:45
is the influence that people have on one another,
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je uticaj koji ljudi imaju jedni na druge,
14:47
and in particular, something called "the negativity threshold."
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a naročito nešto što se naziva granicom negativnosti.
O granici negativnosti možete razmišljati
14:51
Now, the negativity threshold,
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14:52
you can think of as how annoying the husband can be
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kao o tome koliko iritantan muž može da bude
14:57
before the wife starts to get really pissed off, and vice versa.
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pre nego što žena zaista počne da ludi, i obrnuto.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages were about compromise and understanding
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Uvek sam mislila da su osnove dobrog braka kompromis i razumevanje
15:06
and allowing the person to have the space to be themselves.
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i dozvoljavanje osobi da ima prostora da bude ono što jeste.
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps the most successful relationships
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Mislila sam i da bi najuspešnije veze onda bile one
15:12
were ones where there was a really high negativity threshold.
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gde je granica negativnosti veoma visoka.
15:15
Where couples let things go
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Tamo gde parovi prepuštaju
15:17
and only brought things up if they really were a big deal.
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i iznose stvari samo ako su zapravo velike.
15:20
But actually, the mathematics and subsequent findings by the team
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Ali zapravo, matematika i otkrića tima
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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pokazali su da je istina upravo suprotna.
15:27
The best couples, or the most successful couples,
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Najbolji parovi, ili najuspešniji parovi
su oni kod kojih je granica negativnosti veoma niska.
15:30
are the ones with a really low negativity threshold.
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15:33
These are the couples that don't let anything go unnoticed
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Ovo su parovi kod kojih ništa ne prolazi neprimećeno
15:37
and allow each other some room to complain.
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i gde jedni drugima daju prostora za prigovaranje.
15:40
These are the couples that are continually trying to repair their own relationship,
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Ovo su parovi koji se stalno trude da poprave svoju vezu,
15:45
that have a much more positive outlook on their marriage.
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koji imaju mnogo pozitivniju sliku o svom braku.
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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Parovi koji ne zaboravljaju stvari
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things end up being a really big deal.
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i parovi koji ne dopuštaju da trivijalne stvari postanu velike.
15:56
Now of course, it takes a bit more than just a low negativity threshold
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Naravno, potrebno je više od niske granice negativnosti same po sebi
16:01
and not compromising to have a successful relationship.
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i nepravljenja kompromisa da biste imali uspešnu vezu.
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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Ali mislim da je prično zanimljivo
16:08
to know that there is really mathematical evidence
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znati da zaista postoje matematički dokazi
16:11
to say that you should never let the sun go down on your anger.
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koji kažu da nikada zaista ne bi trebalo da potpuno obuzdate svoj bes.
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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To su moja tri saveta
16:16
of how maths can help you with love and relationships.
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za to kako matematika može da vam pomogne s ljubavlju i vezama.
16:19
But I hope, that aside from their use as tips,
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Ali nadam se da će vam osim kao saveta
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight into the power of mathematics.
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koristiti i kao uvid u moć matematike.
16:25
Because for me, equations and symbols aren't just a thing.
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Za mene, jednačine i simboli nisu samo stvar.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out about the incredible richness of nature
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Oni su glas koji govori o neverovatnom bogatstvu prirode
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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i zapanjujućoj jednostavnosti
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn and warp and evolve all around us,
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šablona koji se uvijaju i izvrću i razvijaju svuda oko nas,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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od toga kako svet funkcioniše do toga kako se ponašamo.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps, for just a couple of you,
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Nadam se da će makar za nekoliko vas,
16:46
a little bit of insight into the mathematics of love
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uvid u matematiku ljubavi
pomoći da vas ubedi da matematici pružite malo više ljubavi.
16:49
can persuade you to have a little bit more love for mathematics.
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16:52
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:53
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
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