The mathematics of love | Hannah Fry

1,449,576 views ・ 2015-02-13

TED


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譯者: Geoff Chen 審譯者: Zhiting Chen
00:12
Today I want to talk to you about the mathematics of love.
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今天我想要和大家談談 關於愛情的數學。
我想大家都同意
00:17
Now, I think that we can all agree
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00:18
that mathematicians are famously excellent at finding love.
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數學家在尋找真愛上特別在行。
00:22
(Laughter)
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00:23
But it's not just because of our dashing personalities,
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但那並不只是因為我們 精力充沛的性格、
00:26
superior conversational skills and excellent pencil cases.
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超凡的對話技巧, 和炫麗的筆盒。
也是因為我們真的 花了許多時間精力在數學上,
00:32
It's also because we've actually done an awful lot of work into the maths
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00:35
of how to find the perfect partner.
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計算如何找到完美的伴侶。
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper on the subject, which is entitled,
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現在,在此學科中我最愛的論文,名為
「為甚麼我沒有女友」 (笑聲)
00:42
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
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00:43
(Laughter)
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00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate his chances of finding love.
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Peter Backus 試著 計算他尋得真愛的機會。
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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現在,Peter 不是一個非常貪心的人。
00:51
Of all of the available women in the UK,
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在英國所有適宜的女性對象中,
00:53
all Peter's looking for is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter 所看的, 就只是那個住在他附近的對象、
某個處於適宜的年齡階段的女人、
00:57
somebody in the right age range,
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00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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某個擁有大學文憑、
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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某個他很有可能相處地不錯的對象、
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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某個有魅力的女子,
01:05
somebody who's likely to find him attractive.
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以及......某個認為 他也富有魅力的對象。
01:08
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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結果他估計在全英國 大概有 26 位此類女性。
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
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這看來很不妙,不是嗎,Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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我們好好思考一下這件事,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer than the best estimates
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在無數聰明外星 生命形式存在的情況下,
01:24
of how many intelligent extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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那是少於 400 倍數的估計呀。
01:28
And it also gives Peter a 1 in 285,000 chance
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那也給了 Peter 一個
在某晚遇見一個特別的女子
01:33
of bumping into any one of these special ladies
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28 萬 5 千之 1 的機會。
01:35
on a given night out.
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01:37
I'd like to think that's why mathematicians
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我想,那就是為什麼數學家
01:39
don't really bother going on nights out anymore.
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不再怎麼想 晚上出去約會了的原因了吧。
重點是,我個人其實並不同意
01:43
The thing is that I personally don't subscribe
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這種悲觀的看法,
01:45
to such a pessimistic view.
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01:47
Because I know, just as well as all of you do,
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因為我知道,如同你們所有所知道的,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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愛情並不是這樣發生的。
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered and rational and easily predictable.
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人類的情感不是那樣地秩序井然、 乾淨利落、邏輯清晰,和容易預測。
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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但我也知道那並不意謂著
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something that it can offer us,
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數學無法提供幫助,
02:02
because, love, as with most of life, is full of patterns
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因為愛情,如同生命中多數的事物一般, 充斥著許多規律,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately, all about the study of patterns.
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而數學最終就是 那研究規律的學說。
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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從預測天候,到 預測股票市場的開高走低,
02:15
to the movement of the planets or the growth of cities.
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到星球的運轉,或都市的發展。
02:18
And if we're being honest, none of those things
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如果我們對自己誠實的話, 上述那些東西,沒有一個是
02:20
are exactly neatly ordered and easily predictable, either.
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井然有序以及容易預測的。
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics is so powerful that it has the potential
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因為我相信,數學的力量非常強大, 以至於它讓我們得以以新方法
重新看待任何事物。
02:30
to offer us a new way of looking at almost anything.
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02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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就算是和愛情一般神秘的東西也是。
02:36
And so, to try to persuade you
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為了試著說服你們
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent and relevant mathematics is,
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數學的神妙用處,
02:43
I want to give you my top three mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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我想要給大家三個最重要的 在數學上可以驗證的愛情秘訣。
02:50
(Laughter)
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好,首先最重要的秘技一:
02:52
OK, so Top Tip #1:
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如何贏得線上交友的機會。
02:54
How to win at online dating.
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02:58
So my favorite online dating website is OkCupid,
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我最愛的線上交友網站是 OkCupid (網站名:好吧,丘比特),
03:01
not least because it was started by a group of mathematicians.
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這並不僅僅因為這網站 是由一群數學家所架設的。
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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因為他們是數學家,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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他們已經蒐集了
03:08
on everybody who uses their site for almost a decade.
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近乎這十年來所有 該網站使用者的資料。
他們試著尋找
03:12
And they've been trying to search for patterns
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03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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我們在線上
03:16
and the way that we interact with each other
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談論自己的方式的模式,
以及我們和他人互動的模式。
03:18
on an online dating website.
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03:19
And they've come up with some seriously interesting findings.
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他們發現了一些重要的有趣結果。
03:22
But my particular favorite
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但我特別喜歡的結果之一是
03:24
is that it turns out that on an online dating website,
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在線上交友網站上
03:27
how attractive you are does not dictate how popular you are,
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你的魅力程度並無法 預測你的受歡迎程度,
03:33
and actually, having people think that you're ugly
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事實上,讓人們覺得你很醜
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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可以讓你擁有優勢。
03:39
(Laughter)
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03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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讓我向各位展示這是怎麼一回事。
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary section of OkCupid,
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在 OkCupid 的一個自願欄目中,
03:46
you are allowed to rate how attractive you think people are
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你可以評價人們的魅力值,
03:49
on a scale between one and five.
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從 1 到 5 。
03:51
Now, if we compare this score, the average score,
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現在,如果我們比較這個分數, 平均分數,
03:54
to how many messages a selection of people receive,
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有多少人收到訊息,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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你就可以開始理解
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity on an online dating website.
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在一個線上約會網站上 魅力指數與受歡迎程度有關。
這是 OkCupid 得到的圖表。
04:04
This is the graph the OkCupid guys have come up with.
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04:07
And the important thing to notice is that it's not totally true
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一件重要的值得注意的事是
04:10
that the more attractive you are, the more messages you get.
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並不是越有魅力的人, 收到的訊息越多。
04:13
But the question arises then of what is it about people up here
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問題是,為什麼上面的這些人
比下面這些人要受歡迎得多,
04:17
who are so much more popular than people down here,
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04:21
even though they have the same score of attractiveness?
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即便他們都有相同的魅力值?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just straightforward looks that are important.
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原因是,並不是直觀的外貌是重要的。
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their findings with an example.
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讓我來談談他們的發現, 以一個案例說明。
04:31
So if you take someone like Portia de Rossi, for example,
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如果你拿 Portia de Rossi 為例,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi is a very beautiful woman.
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每個人都同意 Portia de Rossi 是個非常美麗的女人,
04:39
Nobody thinks that she's ugly, but she's not a supermodel, either.
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沒有人覺得她醜,但她也不是超級名模。
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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如果你拿某個人,比如 Sarah Jessica Parker (譯注:慾望城市女主角)來和她比較
04:48
now, a lot of people, myself included, I should say,
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許多人,包括我自己,我應該會說,
Sarah Jessica Parker 魅力極為出眾,
04:52
think that Sarah Jessica Parker is seriously fabulous
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04:56
and possibly one of the most beautiful creatures
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有可能是地表上
04:58
to have ever have walked on the face of the Earth.
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最美麗的物種之一。
05:01
But some other people, i.e., most of the Internet ...
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但許多其他人,比如,大多數的網友
05:06
(Laughter)
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似乎都認為她看起來像馬。(笑聲)
05:08
seem to think that she looks a bit like a horse.
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05:10
(Laughter)
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05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people how attractive they thought
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如果你問人們他們覺得自己有多美,
05:17
Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker 或 Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give them a score between one and five
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你要他們給自己打分,從 1 到 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out to have roughly the same score.
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我猜他們也會大約給一個 和大家都差不多的數字。
05:25
But the way that people would vote would be very different.
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但是人們投票的方式各自不同。
因此 Portia 的分數會聚集在 4 分左右,
05:28
So Portia's scores would all be clustered around the four
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因為所有人都同意,她非常美麗,
05:31
because everybody agrees that she's very beautiful,
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然而人們對 Sarah Jessica Parker 卻有截然不同的意見。
05:33
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker completely divides opinion.
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她的分差懸殊很大。
05:36
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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然而事實上,就是那分差別具意義,
05:40
It's this spread that makes you more popular
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那差異讓你
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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在交友網站上受歡迎。
05:45
So what that means then
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所以那意味著
05:46
is that if some people think that you're attractive,
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如果有些人認為你別具魅力,
05:48
you're actually better off
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你最好有其他人認為
05:50
having some other people think that you're a massive minger.
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你很醜。
05:55
That's much better than everybody just thinking
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那遠優於所有人認為
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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你是鄰家的可愛女孩。
當你們開始思考一下 這些寄送訊息的人的話,
06:00
Now, I think this begins to make a bit more sense
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06:02
when you think in terms of the people who are sending these messages.
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這開始變得合理些了。
06:05
So let's say that you think somebody's attractive,
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這麼說吧,假設你認為那個人很美,
但你同時猜想其他人並不會 和你有同樣的審美觀。
06:08
but you suspect that other people won't necessarily be that interested.
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那就意味著,你的競爭對手略少,
06:12
That means there's less competition for you
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06:14
and it's an extra incentive for you to get in touch.
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這就給你增加了額外的動機 去與他/她認識。
06:17
Whereas compare that to if you think somebody is attractive
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與之相對的情況是, 你認為某人很有吸引力,
但你猜想所有其他的人 都認為那人很有吸引力,
06:20
but you suspect that everybody is going to think they're attractive.
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06:23
Well, why would you bother humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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嗯,讓我們面對事實 為什麼要自取其辱呢?
這就是最有趣的部分。
06:27
But here's where the really interesting part comes.
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因為當人們去選擇他們 在交友網站上使用的照片時,
06:29
Because when people choose the pictures that they use on an online dating website,
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06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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他們總是試圖最小化
06:35
that they think some people will find unattractive.
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其他人認為不吸引人之處的可能性。
06:39
The classic example is people who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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最經典的例子是, 那些體重略重的人
06:43
deliberately choosing a very cropped photo,
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故意選擇一個 剪裁非常不正確的照片,
06:45
(Laughter)
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例如那些禿頭的男士,
06:47
or bald men, for example,
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06:48
deliberately choosing pictures where they're wearing hats.
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故意去選擇他們帶著帽子的照片。
06:51
But actually this is the opposite of what you should do
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但你的行為是與你的目標相悖的,
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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如果你想要在網上交友成功。
06:55
You should really, instead,
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你真的應該,去選擇 讓你看起來與眾不同的照片,
06:57
play up to whatever it is that makes you different,
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07:00
even if you think that some people will find it unattractive.
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即便你認為某些人會對此失去興趣。
07:04
Because the people who fancy you are just going to fancy you anyway,
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因為那些喜歡你的人 無論如何都會去喜歡你,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't, well, they only play up to your advantage.
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而那些不重要的路人 只是渲染你的優勢。
07:12
OK, Top Tip #2: How to pick the perfect partner.
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好了,最高秘訣 2 號: 如何選擇完美的伴侶。
07:14
So let's imagine then that you're a roaring success
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讓我們想像你的約會
07:17
on the dating scene.
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精彩成功,
07:19
But the question arises of how do you then convert that success
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但問題來了 你如何將那成功的約會
07:23
into longer-term happiness,
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轉變成長期的幸福,尤其是,
07:26
and in particular, how do you decide when is the right time to settle down?
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你要如何選擇 在哪個時刻安定下來?
07:31
Now generally, it's not advisable to just cash in
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一般來說, 並不建議人們立刻
07:34
and marry the first person who comes along and shows you any interest at all.
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與第一個出現
對你表達好感的人結婚。
07:38
But, equally, you don't really want to leave it too long
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但是,一般來說,如果你想要 最大化你未來數十年幸福婚姻的機會,
07:41
if you want to maximize your chance of long-term happiness.
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你也不願等待太久。
07:44
As my favorite author, Jane Austen, puts it,
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我最喜歡的作家珍.奧斯汀這樣說:
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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「一個未婚的 27 歲女子
07:50
can never hope to feel or inspire affection again."
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就別指望再能感受或觸動愛情了。」
07:53
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
這太嚴重了,珍, 你對愛瞭解多少呢?
07:56
Thanks a lot, Jane.
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07:57
What do you know about love?
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07:58
(Laughter)
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07:59
So the question is then,
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那麼問題來了,
08:01
how do you know when is the right time to settle down,
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你怎麼知道哪個時刻 是該要安定下來的時刻,
畢竟生命中你有很多可能的對象?
08:04
given all the people that you can date in your lifetime?
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幸好,我們可以運用一點數學
08:07
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit of mathematics that we can use
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08:10
to help us out here, called optimal stopping theory.
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來幫助我們計算解決這個問題, 這理論名叫 「最優停止理論」。
那麼讓我們來想像一下,
08:13
So let's imagine, then,
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你在 15 歲的時候開始交往,
08:15
that you start dating when you're 15
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08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married by the time that you're 35.
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理想狀態下,你在 35 歲的時候會結婚。
08:21
And there's a number of people
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你的人生中
有很多潛在的約會對象,
08:23
that you could potentially date across your lifetime,
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08:25
and they'll be at varying levels of goodness.
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他們都有各自的優點。
08:27
Now the rules are that once you cash in and get married,
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規則是,你一旦跳進婚姻,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see what you could have had,
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你就不能繼續前進尋找 你可能可以有的對象,
08:32
and equally, you can't go back and change your mind.
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你也不能回頭來改變你的主意。
08:35
In my experience at least,
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我個人的經驗看來,
08:37
I find that typically people don't much like being recalled
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一般人們不希望
08:39
years after being passed up for somebody else, or that's just me.
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在被拒絕又過了多年後被找回來, 也許只有我這樣想。
08:45
So the math says then that what you should do
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數學告訴我們
08:48
in the first 37 percent of your dating window,
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你應該拒絕認為會和 在你人生約會週期
08:51
you should just reject everybody as serious marriage potential.
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前 37% 時段出現的任何人 有嚴肅認真的婚姻關係。
08:55
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:57
And then, you should pick the next person that comes along
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接著,你要選擇下一個人,
09:01
that is better than everybody that you've seen before.
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那個比你以前約會對象都好的人。
09:04
So here's the example.
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這裡舉個例子。
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be mathematically proven, in fact,
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如果你這麼做,從數學證明來看 可以認為,事實上
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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這可能是最好的選擇
09:10
of maximizing your chances of finding the perfect partner.
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來最大化你找到完美伴侶的機會。
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that this method does come with some risks.
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現在不幸的是,我必須告訴你 這個方法也是有風險的。
09:20
For instance, imagine if your perfect partner appeared
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比如,想像一下,假設你的完美伴侶
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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出現在你約會歷程的前 37%
09:28
Now, unfortunately, you'd have to reject them.
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那就很不幸了, 你會拒絕他們。
09:30
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
如果你相信數學,
09:34
Now, if you're following the maths,
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恐怕你不會再找到
09:36
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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09:37
that's better than anyone you've seen before,
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比你以往見過更好的對象,
你就會持續拒絕每個人 然後孤獨終老。
09:40
so you have to go on rejecting everyone and die alone.
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09:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats ...
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可能會被貓咪包圍 一點點啃食你的遺骸。
09:48
(Laughter)
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09:49
nibbling at your remains.
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09:51
OK, another risk is, let's imagine, instead,
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好,另一個風險是, 讓我們想像,相反的,
09:55
that the first people that you dated in your first 37 percent
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你約會歷程前 37% 裡第一個對象
09:58
are just incredibly dull, boring, terrible people.
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極度愚蠢、無聊又很糟糕。
10:02
That's OK, because you're in your rejection phase,
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沒關係,因為你還處於拒絕對象的階段,
10:05
so that's fine, you can reject them.
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沒問題,你可以拒絕他們。
10:06
But then imagine the next person to come along
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但想像一下,下一個出現的人
10:10
is just marginally less boring, dull and terrible ...
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只是沒那麼無聊、愚蠢,
10:13
(Laughter)
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10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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比你以前的對象都略好那麼一點。
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths, I'm afraid you have to marry them ...
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如果你遵循數學, 恐怕你要和他們結婚
10:20
(Laughter)
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然後沈浸在一段, 實話說,次優的關係中。
10:21
and end up in a relationship which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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10:24
Sorry about that.
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很抱歉。
10:25
But I do think that there's an opportunity here for Hallmark to cash in on
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但我認為,機會還是有的
賀曼公司迎合市場需求
10:29
and really cater for this market.
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10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
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出售這樣的情人節賀卡。 (笑聲)
10:32
(Laughter)
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「我親愛的丈夫,你沒有
10:33
"My darling husband, you are marginally less terrible
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10:36
than the first 37 percent of people I dated."
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我約會歷程中前 37% 的男士 那麼糟糕。」
10:38
(Laughter)
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這比一般的賀卡浪漫很多。
10:40
It's actually more romantic than I normally manage.
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10:43
(Laughter)
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10:45
OK, so this method doesn't give you a 100 percent success rate,
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這個數學方法不能保證 100% 的成功率,
10:49
but there's no other possible strategy that can do any better.
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但也沒有更好的策略了。
10:53
And actually, in the wild, there are certain types of fish
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事實上,在動物界, 某個特定種類的魚
遵循使用這樣的策略。
10:56
which follow and employ this exact strategy.
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10:59
So they reject every possible suitor that turns up
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在交配期,牠們拒絕
11:02
in the first 37 percent of the mating season,
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出現在前 37% 的每個求婚者,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish that comes along after that window
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接著牠們選擇 37% 後出現的下一個
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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比所見過的魚
11:11
than all of the fish that they've seen before.
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體型更加龐大,更加結實的魚。
11:13
I also think that subconsciously, humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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我想作為人類 我們潛意識裡也在做同樣的選擇。
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time to play the field,
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我們給自己更多時間尋找,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace or whatever when we're young.
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在我們年輕的時候 感受婚戀市場。
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously at potential marriage candidates
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我們只有在 20 歲年齡段的中後期
11:29
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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才會很真尋找潛在的結婚對象。
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof, if ever it were needed,
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我想這證明了, 即使不確定是否需要,
每個人的大腦 都預配了點數學能力。
11:35
that everybody's brains are prewired to be just a little bit mathematical.
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11:39
OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
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好,上述就是最高秘訣 2 號。
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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現在,最高秘訣 3 號:如何避免離婚。
好的,讓我們想像一下 你找到了你的完美對象,
11:45
OK, so let's imagine then that you picked your perfect partner
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你和他/她進入了一生的婚姻關係。
11:48
and you're settling into a lifelong relationship with them.
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11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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我假設每個人都不希望離婚,
11:56
apart from, I don't know, Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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當然,也許除了 Piers Morgan 的太太?
12:00
(Laughter)
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12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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可是,現代婚姻一個悲傷的事實
12:04
that one in two marriages in the States ends in divorce,
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就是美國離婚率高達 50%,
12:07
with the rest of the world not being far behind.
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世界其他國家也離這個數據不遠。
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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當然,你可以認為
12:13
for thinking that the arguments that precede a marital breakup
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婚姻破裂的原因
12:17
are not an ideal candidate for mathematical investigation.
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不是數學運算理想的數據源。
一方面來說,很難瞭解到
12:21
For one thing, it's very hard to know
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你該去測量什麼 或者是你該去量化什麼。
12:23
what you should be measuring or what you should be quantifying.
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但這並沒有阻止心理學家 John Gottman 做這樣的研究。
12:26
But this didn't stop a psychologist, John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples having a conversation
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Gottman 觀察了數百對夫婦的對談
12:37
and recorded, well, everything you can think of.
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盡可能錄下來所有資訊。
12:40
So he recorded what was said in the conversation,
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記錄了對話的內容、
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
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皮膚的傳導性、
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
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面部表情、
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
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心跳、血壓,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether or not the wife was actually always right,
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基本上除了「太太永遠是對的」 以外的所有東西,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
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當然,太太永遠是對的。
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
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但是,Gottman 和他的團隊發現
13:01
was that one of the most important predictors
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最能夠準確預測
這對夫妻是否未來會離婚的
13:04
for whether or not a couple is going to get divorced
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是雙方在對話過程中 積極還是消極。
13:06
was how positive or negative each partner was being in the conversation.
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13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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那些離婚風險很低的夫妻
13:13
scored a lot more positive points on Gottman's scale than negative.
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在 Gottman 的測試中得到了 更多正面而不是負面的分數。
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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相反的,在糟糕的關係中,
13:20
by which I mean, probably going to get divorced,
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我是指那些可能離婚的夫妻,
他們發現自己沈浸在消極的漩渦中。
13:23
they found themselves getting into a spiral of negativity.
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13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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就用這些非常簡單的方法,
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
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Gottman 和他的團隊能夠準確預測
13:32
whether a given couple was going to get divorced
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一對夫妻是否會離婚,
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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準確率高達 90%。
但是,直到他與 數學家 James Murray 聯手,
13:38
But it wasn't until he teamed up with a mathematician, James Murray,
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13:41
that they really started to understand
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他們才真正找出
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals and how they occur.
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那些消極漩渦是 如何產生,為什麼產生的。
13:47
And the results that they found,
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結果是他們發現
13:49
I think, are just incredibly impressively simple and interesting.
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我認為不可思議太令人驚嘆 的簡單而有趣。
13:53
So these equations predict how the wife or husband is going to respond
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這些算式,他們用來預測 妻子或是丈夫是如何去回應
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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他們下一段對話,
他們的積極或消極程度是多少。
14:00
how positive or negative they're going to be.
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14:02
And these equations depend on
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這些算式,取決於
當他們獨處時各自的情緒,
14:04
the mood of the person when they're on their own,
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14:06
the mood of the person when they're with their partner,
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當他們和伴侶在一起時候的情緒,
但最重要的是,
14:09
but most importantly, they depend on
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14:10
how much the husband and wife influence one another.
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取決於丈夫和妻子相互間的影響。
在這個階段我認為最重要的是,
14:14
Now, I think it's important to point out at this stage,
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14:16
that these exact equations have also been shown
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這個一模一樣的算式
同時也可以完美預測
14:20
to be perfectly able at describing
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14:22
what happens between two countries in an arms race.
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兩個國家是否會開戰。
(笑聲)
14:27
(Laughter)
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14:30
So that an arguing couple spiraling into negativity
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因此,對沈浸於消極情緒
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce
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在離婚邊緣搖擺的夫妻──
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to the beginning of a nuclear war.
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實際在數學上等同於 即將開始一場核戰爭。
14:40
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
事實上,這個算式最重要的部分
14:43
But the really important term in this equation
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14:45
is the influence that people have on one another,
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是人們給對方帶來的影響,
14:47
and in particular, something called "the negativity threshold."
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尤其是消極閾值。
消極閾值,
14:51
Now, the negativity threshold,
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14:52
you can think of as how annoying the husband can be
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你可以認為它指的是 丈夫討厭到什麼程度
14:57
before the wife starts to get really pissed off, and vice versa.
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就能惹到妻子真的暴怒, 或者是相反。
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages were about compromise and understanding
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我一直認為美好的婚姻 是基於妥協和理解
15:06
and allowing the person to have the space to be themselves.
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並且給對方留足獨處空間。
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps the most successful relationships
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我會想,最成功的關係是
15:12
were ones where there was a really high negativity threshold.
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當那裡有非常高的消極閾值時
15:15
Where couples let things go
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夫妻共同選擇不去理會這些問題。
15:17
and only brought things up if they really were a big deal.
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只有在非常嚴重的時候 才會嚴肅討論。
15:20
But actually, the mathematics and subsequent findings by the team
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事實上,團隊得出的 數學運算結果和後續研究成果顯示
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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完全相反的結果。
15:27
The best couples, or the most successful couples,
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最完美的夫妻, 最成功的夫妻,
有著很低的消極閾值。
15:30
are the ones with a really low negativity threshold.
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15:33
These are the couples that don't let anything go unnoticed
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這些夫妻不會忽視矛盾
15:37
and allow each other some room to complain.
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給對方抱怨的空間。
15:40
These are the couples that are continually trying to repair their own relationship,
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這些夫妻持續努力 修復他們的關係,
15:45
that have a much more positive outlook on their marriage.
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他們對自己的婚姻 有著非常積極的預期。
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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他們不會忽略矛盾,
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things end up being a really big deal.
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他們不會讓一件件瑣碎的小事 堆積成為巨大的問題。
15:56
Now of course, it takes a bit more than just a low negativity threshold
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當然,這不僅僅是 一個低消極閾值
16:01
and not compromising to have a successful relationship.
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和對成功關係毫不妥協的態度。
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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但我認為,很有趣的是
16:08
to know that there is really mathematical evidence
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真的有數學證據
16:11
to say that you should never let the sun go down on your anger.
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來證明你永遠不該長時間 積攢憤怒,太陽要下山了。 (譯注:這句話出自聖經)
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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上述就是我的三條最高秘訣,
16:16
of how maths can help you with love and relationships.
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有關數學如何讓你有 更美好的愛情和關係。
16:19
But I hope, that aside from their use as tips,
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我希望,除了作為愛情秘訣,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight into the power of mathematics.
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它們也展示了數學的力量。
16:25
Because for me, equations and symbols aren't just a thing.
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對我來說,算式和符號 不僅僅是一樣東西。
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out about the incredible richness of nature
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它們表達出 自然令人贊嘆的豐富性
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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以及簡化
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn and warp and evolve all around us,
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那些我們身邊 扭曲、旋轉、包圍、進化的事物,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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從世界是如何運作的, 到人類行為舉止。
16:44
So I hope that perhaps, for just a couple of you,
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我希望,也許你們中的一部分人
16:46
a little bit of insight into the mathematics of love
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能夠瞭解一些 愛的數學運算,
能夠讓你愛數學稍微多一點。
16:49
can persuade you to have a little bit more love for mathematics.
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16:52
Thank you.
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謝謝。
16:53
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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