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譯者: Geoff Chen
審譯者: Zhiting Chen
00:12
Today I want to talk to you
about the mathematics of love.
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今天我想要和大家談談
關於愛情的數學。
我想大家都同意
00:17
Now, I think that we can all agree
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00:18
that mathematicians
are famously excellent at finding love.
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數學家在尋找真愛上特別在行。
00:22
(Laughter)
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00:23
But it's not just because
of our dashing personalities,
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但那並不只是因為我們
精力充沛的性格、
00:26
superior conversational skills
and excellent pencil cases.
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超凡的對話技巧,
和炫麗的筆盒。
也是因為我們真的
花了許多時間精力在數學上,
00:32
It's also because we've actually done
an awful lot of work into the maths
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00:35
of how to find the perfect partner.
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計算如何找到完美的伴侶。
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper
on the subject, which is entitled,
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現在,在此學科中我最愛的論文,名為
「為甚麼我沒有女友」
(笑聲)
00:42
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
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00:43
(Laughter)
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00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate
his chances of finding love.
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Peter Backus 試著
計算他尋得真愛的機會。
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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現在,Peter 不是一個非常貪心的人。
00:51
Of all of the available women in the UK,
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在英國所有適宜的女性對象中,
00:53
all Peter's looking for
is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter 所看的,
就只是那個住在他附近的對象、
某個處於適宜的年齡階段的女人、
00:57
somebody in the right age range,
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00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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某個擁有大學文憑、
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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某個他很有可能相處地不錯的對象、
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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某個有魅力的女子,
01:05
somebody who's likely
to find him attractive.
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以及......某個認為
他也富有魅力的對象。
01:08
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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結果他估計在全英國
大概有 26 位此類女性。
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
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這看來很不妙,不是嗎,Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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我們好好思考一下這件事,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best estimates
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在無數聰明外星
生命形式存在的情況下,
01:24
of how many intelligent
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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那是少於 400 倍數的估計呀。
01:28
And it also gives Peter
a 1 in 285,000 chance
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那也給了 Peter 一個
在某晚遇見一個特別的女子
01:33
of bumping into any one
of these special ladies
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28 萬 5 千之 1 的機會。
01:35
on a given night out.
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01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians
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我想,那就是為什麼數學家
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
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不再怎麼想
晚上出去約會了的原因了吧。
重點是,我個人其實並不同意
01:43
The thing is that I personally
don't subscribe
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這種悲觀的看法,
01:45
to such a pessimistic view.
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01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
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因為我知道,如同你們所有所知道的,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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愛情並不是這樣發生的。
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered
and rational and easily predictable.
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人類的情感不是那樣地秩序井然、
乾淨利落、邏輯清晰,和容易預測。
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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但我也知道那並不意謂著
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something
that it can offer us,
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數學無法提供幫助,
02:02
because, love, as with most of life,
is full of patterns
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因為愛情,如同生命中多數的事物一般,
充斥著許多規律,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately,
all about the study of patterns.
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而數學最終就是
那研究規律的學說。
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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從預測天候,到
預測股票市場的開高走低,
02:15
to the movement of the planets
or the growth of cities.
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到星球的運轉,或都市的發展。
02:18
And if we're being honest,
none of those things
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如果我們對自己誠實的話,
上述那些東西,沒有一個是
02:20
are exactly neatly ordered
and easily predictable, either.
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井然有序以及容易預測的。
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics
is so powerful that it has the potential
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因為我相信,數學的力量非常強大,
以至於它讓我們得以以新方法
重新看待任何事物。
02:30
to offer us a new way of looking
at almost anything.
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02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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就算是和愛情一般神秘的東西也是。
02:36
And so, to try to persuade you
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為了試著說服你們
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent
and relevant mathematics is,
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數學的神妙用處,
02:43
I want to give you my top three
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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我想要給大家三個最重要的
在數學上可以驗證的愛情秘訣。
02:50
(Laughter)
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好,首先最重要的秘技一:
02:52
OK, so Top Tip #1:
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如何贏得線上交友的機會。
02:54
How to win at online dating.
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02:58
So my favorite online dating
website is OkCupid,
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我最愛的線上交友網站是 OkCupid
(網站名:好吧,丘比特),
03:01
not least because it was started
by a group of mathematicians.
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這並不僅僅因為這網站
是由一群數學家所架設的。
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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因為他們是數學家,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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他們已經蒐集了
03:08
on everybody who uses their site
for almost a decade.
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近乎這十年來所有
該網站使用者的資料。
他們試著尋找
03:12
And they've been trying
to search for patterns
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03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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我們在線上
03:16
and the way that we interact
with each other
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談論自己的方式的模式,
以及我們和他人互動的模式。
03:18
on an online dating website.
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03:19
And they've come up with some
seriously interesting findings.
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他們發現了一些重要的有趣結果。
03:22
But my particular favorite
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但我特別喜歡的結果之一是
03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online dating website,
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在線上交友網站上
03:27
how attractive you are
does not dictate how popular you are,
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你的魅力程度並無法
預測你的受歡迎程度,
03:33
and actually, having people
think that you're ugly
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事實上,讓人們覺得你很醜
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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可以讓你擁有優勢。
03:39
(Laughter)
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03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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讓我向各位展示這是怎麼一回事。
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary
section of OkCupid,
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在 OkCupid 的一個自願欄目中,
03:46
you are allowed to rate
how attractive you think people are
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你可以評價人們的魅力值,
03:49
on a scale between one and five.
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從 1 到 5 。
03:51
Now, if we compare this score,
the average score,
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現在,如果我們比較這個分數,
平均分數,
03:54
to how many messages
a selection of people receive,
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有多少人收到訊息,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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你就可以開始理解
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity
on an online dating website.
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在一個線上約會網站上
魅力指數與受歡迎程度有關。
這是 OkCupid 得到的圖表。
04:04
This is the graph the OkCupid guys
have come up with.
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04:07
And the important thing to notice
is that it's not totally true
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一件重要的值得注意的事是
04:10
that the more attractive you are,
the more messages you get.
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並不是越有魅力的人,
收到的訊息越多。
04:13
But the question arises then
of what is it about people up here
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問題是,為什麼上面的這些人
比下面這些人要受歡迎得多,
04:17
who are so much more popular
than people down here,
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04:21
even though they have the same
score of attractiveness?
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即便他們都有相同的魅力值?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just
straightforward looks that are important.
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原因是,並不是直觀的外貌是重要的。
04:28
So let me try to illustrate
their findings with an example.
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讓我來談談他們的發現,
以一個案例說明。
04:31
So if you take someone like
Portia de Rossi, for example,
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如果你拿 Portia de Rossi 為例,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi
is a very beautiful woman.
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每個人都同意 Portia de Rossi
是個非常美麗的女人,
04:39
Nobody thinks that she's ugly,
but she's not a supermodel, either.
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沒有人覺得她醜,但她也不是超級名模。
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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如果你拿某個人,比如
Sarah Jessica Parker
(譯注:慾望城市女主角)來和她比較
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included, I should say,
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許多人,包括我自己,我應該會說,
Sarah Jessica Parker 魅力極為出眾,
04:52
think that Sarah Jessica Parker
is seriously fabulous
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04:56
and possibly one
of the most beautiful creatures
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有可能是地表上
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face of the Earth.
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最美麗的物種之一。
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet ...
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但許多其他人,比如,大多數的網友
05:06
(Laughter)
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似乎都認為她看起來像馬。(笑聲)
05:08
seem to think that she looks
a bit like a horse.
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05:10
(Laughter)
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05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive they thought
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如果你問人們他們覺得自己有多美,
05:17
Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker
或 Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score between one and five
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你要他們給自己打分,從 1 到 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out
to have roughly the same score.
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我猜他們也會大約給一個
和大家都差不多的數字。
05:25
But the way that people would vote
would be very different.
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但是人們投票的方式各自不同。
因此 Portia 的分數會聚集在 4 分左右,
05:28
So Portia's scores would
all be clustered around the four
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因為所有人都同意,她非常美麗,
05:31
because everybody agrees
that she's very beautiful,
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然而人們對 Sarah Jessica Parker
卻有截然不同的意見。
05:33
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker
completely divides opinion.
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她的分差懸殊很大。
05:36
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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然而事實上,就是那分差別具意義,
05:40
It's this spread
that makes you more popular
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那差異讓你
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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在交友網站上受歡迎。
05:45
So what that means then
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所以那意味著
05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive,
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如果有些人認為你別具魅力,
05:48
you're actually better off
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你最好有其他人認為
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive minger.
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你很醜。
05:55
That's much better
than everybody just thinking
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那遠優於所有人認為
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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你是鄰家的可愛女孩。
當你們開始思考一下
這些寄送訊息的人的話,
06:00
Now, I think this begins
to make a bit more sense
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06:02
when you think in terms of the people
who are sending these messages.
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這開始變得合理些了。
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's attractive,
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這麼說吧,假設你認為那個人很美,
但你同時猜想其他人並不會
和你有同樣的審美觀。
06:08
but you suspect that other people
won't necessarily be that interested.
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那就意味著,你的競爭對手略少,
06:12
That means there's
less competition for you
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06:14
and it's an extra incentive
for you to get in touch.
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這就給你增加了額外的動機
去與他/她認識。
06:17
Whereas compare that
to if you think somebody is attractive
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與之相對的情況是,
你認為某人很有吸引力,
但你猜想所有其他的人
都認為那人很有吸引力,
06:20
but you suspect that everybody
is going to think they're attractive.
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06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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嗯,讓我們面對事實
為什麼要自取其辱呢?
這就是最有趣的部分。
06:27
But here's where the really
interesting part comes.
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因為當人們去選擇他們
在交友網站上使用的照片時,
06:29
Because when people choose the pictures
that they use on an online dating website,
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06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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他們總是試圖最小化
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive.
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其他人認為不吸引人之處的可能性。
06:39
The classic example is people
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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最經典的例子是,
那些體重略重的人
06:43
deliberately choosing
a very cropped photo,
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故意選擇一個
剪裁非常不正確的照片,
06:45
(Laughter)
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例如那些禿頭的男士,
06:47
or bald men, for example,
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06:48
deliberately choosing pictures
where they're wearing hats.
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故意去選擇他們帶著帽子的照片。
06:51
But actually this is the opposite
of what you should do
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但你的行為是與你的目標相悖的,
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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如果你想要在網上交友成功。
06:55
You should really, instead,
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你真的應該,去選擇
讓你看起來與眾不同的照片,
06:57
play up to whatever it is
that makes you different,
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07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive.
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即便你認為某些人會對此失去興趣。
07:04
Because the people who fancy you
are just going to fancy you anyway,
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因為那些喜歡你的人
無論如何都會去喜歡你,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage.
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而那些不重要的路人
只是渲染你的優勢。
07:12
OK, Top Tip #2:
How to pick the perfect partner.
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好了,最高秘訣 2 號:
如何選擇完美的伴侶。
07:14
So let's imagine then
that you're a roaring success
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讓我們想像你的約會
07:17
on the dating scene.
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精彩成功,
07:19
But the question arises
of how do you then convert that success
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但問題來了
你如何將那成功的約會
07:23
into longer-term happiness,
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轉變成長期的幸福,尤其是,
07:26
and in particular, how do you decide
when is the right time to settle down?
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你要如何選擇
在哪個時刻安定下來?
07:31
Now generally,
it's not advisable to just cash in
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一般來說,
並不建議人們立刻
07:34
and marry the first person who comes along
and shows you any interest at all.
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與第一個出現
對你表達好感的人結婚。
07:38
But, equally, you don't really
want to leave it too long
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但是,一般來說,如果你想要
最大化你未來數十年幸福婚姻的機會,
07:41
if you want to maximize your chance
of long-term happiness.
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你也不願等待太久。
07:44
As my favorite author,
Jane Austen, puts it,
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我最喜歡的作家珍.奧斯汀這樣說:
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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「一個未婚的 27 歲女子
07:50
can never hope to feel
or inspire affection again."
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就別指望再能感受或觸動愛情了。」
07:53
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
這太嚴重了,珍,
你對愛瞭解多少呢?
07:56
Thanks a lot, Jane.
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07:57
What do you know about love?
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07:58
(Laughter)
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07:59
So the question is then,
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那麼問題來了,
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle down,
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你怎麼知道哪個時刻
是該要安定下來的時刻,
畢竟生命中你有很多可能的對象?
08:04
given all the people
that you can date in your lifetime?
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幸好,我們可以運用一點數學
08:07
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit
of mathematics that we can use
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08:10
to help us out here,
called optimal stopping theory.
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來幫助我們計算解決這個問題,
這理論名叫 「最優停止理論」。
那麼讓我們來想像一下,
08:13
So let's imagine, then,
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1981
你在 15 歲的時候開始交往,
08:15
that you start dating when you're 15
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2602
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married
by the time that you're 35.
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理想狀態下,你在 35 歲的時候會結婚。
08:21
And there's a number of people
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你的人生中
有很多潛在的約會對象,
08:23
that you could potentially
date across your lifetime,
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08:25
and they'll be at varying
levels of goodness.
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2128
他們都有各自的優點。
08:27
Now the rules are that once
you cash in and get married,
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2665
規則是,你一旦跳進婚姻,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
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你就不能繼續前進尋找
你可能可以有的對象,
08:32
and equally, you can't go back
and change your mind.
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你也不能回頭來改變你的主意。
08:35
In my experience at least,
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我個人的經驗看來,
08:37
I find that typically people
don't much like being recalled
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一般人們不希望
08:39
years after being passed up
for somebody else, or that's just me.
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在被拒絕又過了多年後被找回來,
也許只有我這樣想。
08:45
So the math says then
that what you should do
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數學告訴我們
08:48
in the first 37 percent
of your dating window,
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3171
你應該拒絕認為會和
在你人生約會週期
08:51
you should just reject everybody
as serious marriage potential.
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3757
前 37% 時段出現的任何人
有嚴肅認真的婚姻關係。
08:55
(Laughter)
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2150
(笑聲)
08:57
And then, you should pick
the next person that comes along
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3624
接著,你要選擇下一個人,
09:01
that is better than everybody
that you've seen before.
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那個比你以前約會對象都好的人。
09:04
So here's the example.
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1421
這裡舉個例子。
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically proven, in fact,
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如果你這麼做,從數學證明來看
可以認為,事實上
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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這可能是最好的選擇
09:10
of maximizing your chances
of finding the perfect partner.
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來最大化你找到完美伴侶的機會。
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that
this method does come with some risks.
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現在不幸的是,我必須告訴你
這個方法也是有風險的。
09:20
For instance, imagine
if your perfect partner appeared
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比如,想像一下,假設你的完美伴侶
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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2682
出現在你約會歷程的前 37%
09:28
Now, unfortunately,
you'd have to reject them.
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2772
那就很不幸了,
你會拒絕他們。
09:30
(Laughter)
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2689
(笑聲)
如果你相信數學,
09:34
Now, if you're following the maths,
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恐怕你不會再找到
09:36
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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1633
09:37
that's better than anyone
you've seen before,
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2271
比你以往見過更好的對象,
你就會持續拒絕每個人
然後孤獨終老。
09:40
so you have to go on
rejecting everyone and die alone.
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3849
09:44
(Laughter)
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1999
(笑聲)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats ...
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1516
可能會被貓咪包圍
一點點啃食你的遺骸。
09:48
(Laughter)
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1619
09:49
nibbling at your remains.
197
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1567
09:51
OK, another risk is,
let's imagine, instead,
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3969
好,另一個風險是,
讓我們想像,相反的,
09:55
that the first people that you dated
in your first 37 percent
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3116
你約會歷程前 37% 裡第一個對象
09:58
are just incredibly dull,
boring, terrible people.
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3921
極度愚蠢、無聊又很糟糕。
10:02
That's OK, because
you're in your rejection phase,
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2382
沒關係,因為你還處於拒絕對象的階段,
10:05
so that's fine, you can reject them.
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1715
沒問題,你可以拒絕他們。
10:06
But then imagine
the next person to come along
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3373
但想像一下,下一個出現的人
10:10
is just marginally less boring,
dull and terrible ...
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3330
只是沒那麼無聊、愚蠢,
10:13
(Laughter)
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1099
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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1898
比你以前的對象都略好那麼一點。
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths,
I'm afraid you have to marry them ...
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3595
如果你遵循數學,
恐怕你要和他們結婚
10:20
(Laughter)
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1055
然後沈浸在一段,
實話說,次優的關係中。
10:21
and end up in a relationship
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
209
621478
3143
10:24
Sorry about that.
210
624645
1153
很抱歉。
10:25
But I do think that there's an opportunity
here for Hallmark to cash in on
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625822
3500
但我認為,機會還是有的
賀曼公司迎合市場需求
10:29
and really cater for this market.
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1582
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
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630952
1583
出售這樣的情人節賀卡。
(笑聲)
10:32
(Laughter)
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632559
1156
「我親愛的丈夫,你沒有
10:33
"My darling husband,
you are marginally less terrible
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3002
10:36
than the first 37 percent
of people I dated."
216
636765
2154
我約會歷程中前 37% 的男士
那麼糟糕。」
10:38
(Laughter)
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1630
這比一般的賀卡浪漫很多。
10:40
It's actually more romantic
than I normally manage.
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2838
10:43
(Laughter)
219
643745
1471
10:45
OK, so this method doesn't give you
a 100 percent success rate,
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645240
4661
這個數學方法不能保證
100% 的成功率,
10:49
but there's no other possible
strategy that can do any better.
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3435
但也沒有更好的策略了。
10:53
And actually, in the wild,
there are certain types of fish
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3430
事實上,在動物界,
某個特定種類的魚
遵循使用這樣的策略。
10:56
which follow and employ
this exact strategy.
223
656838
2817
10:59
So they reject every possible
suitor that turns up
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659679
2753
在交配期,牠們拒絕
11:02
in the first 37 percent
of the mating season,
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2689
出現在前 37% 的每個求婚者,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish
that comes along after that window
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665169
3751
接著牠們選擇 37% 後出現的下一個
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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2155
比所見過的魚
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've seen before.
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671123
2578
體型更加龐大,更加結實的魚。
11:13
I also think that subconsciously,
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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673725
4877
我想作為人類
我們潛意識裡也在做同樣的選擇。
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time
to play the field,
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2845
我們給自己更多時間尋找,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace
or whatever when we're young.
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681495
3596
在我們年輕的時候
感受婚戀市場。
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously
at potential marriage candidates
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4590
我們只有在 20 歲年齡段的中後期
11:29
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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2027
才會很真尋找潛在的結婚對象。
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof,
if ever it were needed,
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691780
3210
我想這證明了,
即使不確定是否需要,
每個人的大腦
都預配了點數學能力。
11:35
that everybody's brains are prewired
to be just a little bit mathematical.
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695014
4208
11:39
OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
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699450
2003
好,上述就是最高秘訣 2 號。
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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701477
3229
現在,最高秘訣 3 號:如何避免離婚。
好的,讓我們想像一下
你找到了你的完美對象,
11:45
OK, so let's imagine then
that you picked your perfect partner
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2924
你和他/她進入了一生的婚姻關係。
11:48
and you're settling into
a lifelong relationship with them.
239
708299
4229
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
240
712552
3986
我假設每個人都不希望離婚,
11:56
apart from, I don't know,
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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4246
當然,也許除了 Piers Morgan 的太太?
12:00
(Laughter)
242
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1150
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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2420
可是,現代婚姻一個悲傷的事實
12:04
that one in two marriages
in the States ends in divorce,
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3260
就是美國離婚率高達 50%,
12:07
with the rest of the world
not being far behind.
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3792
世界其他國家也離這個數據不遠。
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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1834
當然,你可以認為
12:13
for thinking that the arguments
that precede a marital breakup
247
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3733
婚姻破裂的原因
12:17
are not an ideal candidate
for mathematical investigation.
248
737344
3790
不是數學運算理想的數據源。
一方面來說,很難瞭解到
12:21
For one thing, it's very hard to know
249
741359
1782
你該去測量什麼
或者是你該去量化什麼。
12:23
what you should be measuring
or what you should be quantifying.
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743165
3077
但這並沒有阻止心理學家
John Gottman 做這樣的研究。
12:26
But this didn't stop a psychologist,
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
251
746266
6183
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples
having a conversation
252
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5237
Gottman 觀察了數百對夫婦的對談
12:37
and recorded, well,
everything you can think of.
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2306
盡可能錄下來所有資訊。
12:40
So he recorded what was said
in the conversation,
254
760064
2367
記錄了對話的內容、
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
255
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2293
皮膚的傳導性、
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
256
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2063
面部表情、
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
257
766859
1991
心跳、血壓,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether
or not the wife was actually always right,
258
768874
6236
基本上除了「太太永遠是對的」
以外的所有東西,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
259
775134
3191
當然,太太永遠是對的。
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
260
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2649
但是,Gottman 和他的團隊發現
13:01
was that one of the most
important predictors
261
781022
3015
最能夠準確預測
這對夫妻是否未來會離婚的
13:04
for whether or not a couple
is going to get divorced
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2482
是雙方在對話過程中
積極還是消極。
13:06
was how positive or negative each partner
was being in the conversation.
263
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4623
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
264
791214
2330
那些離婚風險很低的夫妻
13:13
scored a lot more positive points
on Gottman's scale than negative.
265
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4269
在 Gottman 的測試中得到了
更多正面而不是負面的分數。
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
266
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2541
相反的,在糟糕的關係中,
13:20
by which I mean,
probably going to get divorced,
267
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2747
我是指那些可能離婚的夫妻,
他們發現自己沈浸在消極的漩渦中。
13:23
they found themselves getting
into a spiral of negativity.
268
803197
4357
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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807578
2260
就用這些非常簡單的方法,
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
270
809862
2471
Gottman 和他的團隊能夠準確預測
13:32
whether a given couple
was going to get divorced
271
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2722
一對夫妻是否會離婚,
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
272
815103
2185
準確率高達 90%。
但是,直到他與
數學家 James Murray 聯手,
13:38
But it wasn't until he teamed up
with a mathematician, James Murray,
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3289
13:41
that they really started to understand
274
821318
1891
他們才真正找出
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals
and how they occur.
275
823233
4494
那些消極漩渦是
如何產生,為什麼產生的。
13:47
And the results that they found,
276
827751
1533
結果是他們發現
13:49
I think, are just incredibly
impressively simple and interesting.
277
829308
4649
我認為不可思議太令人驚嘆
的簡單而有趣。
13:53
So these equations predict how the wife
or husband is going to respond
278
833981
4563
這些算式,他們用來預測
妻子或是丈夫是如何去回應
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
279
838568
1888
他們下一段對話,
他們的積極或消極程度是多少。
14:00
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
280
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2133
14:02
And these equations depend on
281
842637
1385
這些算式,取決於
當他們獨處時各自的情緒,
14:04
the mood of the person
when they're on their own,
282
844046
2306
14:06
the mood of the person when
they're with their partner,
283
846376
2614
當他們和伴侶在一起時候的情緒,
但最重要的是,
14:09
but most importantly, they depend on
284
849014
1725
14:10
how much the husband and wife
influence one another.
285
850763
3032
取決於丈夫和妻子相互間的影響。
在這個階段我認為最重要的是,
14:14
Now, I think it's important
to point out at this stage,
286
854115
2607
14:16
that these exact equations
have also been shown
287
856746
3509
這個一模一樣的算式
同時也可以完美預測
14:20
to be perfectly able at describing
288
860279
2195
14:22
what happens between two countries
in an arms race.
289
862498
3734
兩個國家是否會開戰。
(笑聲)
14:27
(Laughter)
290
867010
3088
14:30
So that an arguing couple
spiraling into negativity
291
870300
3581
因此,對沈浸於消極情緒
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce
292
873905
1905
在離婚邊緣搖擺的夫妻──
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent
to the beginning of a nuclear war.
293
875834
4249
實際在數學上等同於
即將開始一場核戰爭。
14:40
(Laughter)
294
880107
2890
(笑聲)
事實上,這個算式最重要的部分
14:43
But the really important term
in this equation
295
883021
2313
14:45
is the influence that people
have on one another,
296
885358
2495
是人們給對方帶來的影響,
14:47
and in particular, something called
"the negativity threshold."
297
887877
3257
尤其是消極閾值。
消極閾值,
14:51
Now, the negativity threshold,
298
891158
1732
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying the husband can be
299
892914
4627
你可以認為它指的是
丈夫討厭到什麼程度
14:57
before the wife starts to get
really pissed off, and vice versa.
300
897565
4263
就能惹到妻子真的暴怒,
或者是相反。
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages
were about compromise and understanding
301
901852
4532
我一直認為美好的婚姻
是基於妥協和理解
15:06
and allowing the person
to have the space to be themselves.
302
906408
2762
並且給對方留足獨處空間。
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps
the most successful relationships
303
909194
3353
我會想,最成功的關係是
15:12
were ones where there was
a really high negativity threshold.
304
912571
3280
當那裡有非常高的消極閾值時
15:15
Where couples let things go
305
915875
1793
夫妻共同選擇不去理會這些問題。
15:17
and only brought things up
if they really were a big deal.
306
917692
2771
只有在非常嚴重的時候
才會嚴肅討論。
15:20
But actually, the mathematics
and subsequent findings by the team
307
920487
4251
事實上,團隊得出的
數學運算結果和後續研究成果顯示
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
308
924762
2532
完全相反的結果。
15:27
The best couples,
or the most successful couples,
309
927799
2309
最完美的夫妻,
最成功的夫妻,
有著很低的消極閾值。
15:30
are the ones with a really low
negativity threshold.
310
930132
3363
15:33
These are the couples
that don't let anything go unnoticed
311
933519
3634
這些夫妻不會忽視矛盾
15:37
and allow each other
some room to complain.
312
937177
3198
給對方抱怨的空間。
15:40
These are the couples that are continually
trying to repair their own relationship,
313
940399
5234
這些夫妻持續努力
修復他們的關係,
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook on their marriage.
314
945657
2743
他們對自己的婚姻
有著非常積極的預期。
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
315
948424
2068
他們不會忽略矛盾,
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things
end up being a really big deal.
316
950516
4880
他們不會讓一件件瑣碎的小事
堆積成為巨大的問題。
15:56
Now of course, it takes a bit more
than just a low negativity threshold
317
956426
5258
當然,這不僅僅是
一個低消極閾值
16:01
and not compromising
to have a successful relationship.
318
961708
4368
和對成功關係毫不妥協的態度。
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
319
966100
2526
但我認為,很有趣的是
16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical evidence
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真的有數學證據
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun go down on your anger.
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來證明你永遠不該長時間
積攢憤怒,太陽要下山了。
(譯注:這句話出自聖經)
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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上述就是我的三條最高秘訣,
16:16
of how maths can help you
with love and relationships.
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有關數學如何讓你有
更美好的愛情和關係。
16:19
But I hope, that aside from
their use as tips,
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我希望,除了作為愛情秘訣,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight
into the power of mathematics.
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它們也展示了數學的力量。
16:25
Because for me, equations
and symbols aren't just a thing.
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對我來說,算式和符號
不僅僅是一樣東西。
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out
about the incredible richness of nature
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它們表達出
自然令人贊嘆的豐富性
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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1786
以及簡化
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn
and warp and evolve all around us,
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那些我們身邊
扭曲、旋轉、包圍、進化的事物,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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從世界是如何運作的,
到人類行為舉止。
16:44
So I hope that perhaps,
for just a couple of you,
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我希望,也許你們中的一部分人
16:46
a little bit of insight
into the mathematics of love
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能夠瞭解一些
愛的數學運算,
能夠讓你愛數學稍微多一點。
16:49
can persuade you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics.
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16:52
Thank you.
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謝謝。
16:53
(Applause)
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7000
(鼓掌)
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