The mathematics of love | Hannah Fry

1,212,171 views ・ 2015-02-13

TED


Za predvajanje videoposnetka dvakrat kliknite na spodnje angleške podnapise.

Translator: Matej Divjak Reviewer: Nika Kotnik
00:12
Today I want to talk to you about the mathematics of love.
0
12507
4669
Danes bi vam rada govorila o matematiki ljubezni.
Mislim, da se lahko vsi strinjamo,
00:17
Now, I think that we can all agree
1
17200
1629
00:18
that mathematicians are famously excellent at finding love.
2
18853
3309
da matematiki slovijo po tem, da so odlični v iskanju ljubezni.
00:22
(Laughter)
3
22479
1403
00:23
But it's not just because of our dashing personalities,
4
23906
2967
A ne le zaradi naših sijajnih osebnosti,
00:26
superior conversational skills and excellent pencil cases.
5
26897
4623
superiornih pogovornih spretnosti in odličnih peresnic za svinčnike.
Ampak tudi zato, ker smo dejansko naredili ogromno dela glede matematike,
00:32
It's also because we've actually done an awful lot of work into the maths
6
32083
3743
00:35
of how to find the perfect partner.
7
35850
2476
kako najti popolnega partnerja.
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper on the subject, which is entitled,
8
38350
3679
V mojem najljubšem članku o tej temi, ki nosi naslov:
"Zakaj nimam punce" - (smeh) -
00:42
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
9
42053
1863
00:43
(Laughter)
10
43940
1407
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate his chances of finding love.
11
45371
3618
Peter Backus poskuša oceniti svoje možnosti, da najde ljubezen.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
12
49013
2229
A Peter ni zelo pohlepen.
00:51
Of all of the available women in the UK,
13
51266
2252
Med vsemi možnimi ženskami v Združenem kraljestvu
00:53
all Peter's looking for is somebody who lives near him,
14
53542
3495
Peter išče le takšno, ki živi blizu njega,
ki je v pravem starostnem razponu,
00:57
somebody in the right age range,
15
57061
1806
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
16
58891
2922
ki ima univerzitetno diplomo,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
17
61837
1982
s katero se bo verjetno lepo ujel,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
18
63843
1943
ki je verjetno privlačna,
01:05
somebody who's likely to find him attractive.
19
65810
2306
ki se ji bo on verjetno zdel privlačen.
01:08
(Laughter)
20
68140
3054
(smeh)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
21
71218
4790
Oceni, da je v celotnem Združenem kraljestvu 26 takšnih žensk.
01:16
(Laughter)
22
76032
1179
01:17
It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
23
77235
2033
To pa ni preveč obetavno, kaj Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
24
79292
1954
Če to postavimo v perspektivo,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer than the best estimates
25
81270
3280
je to približno 400-krat manj, kot so najboljše ocene,
01:24
of how many intelligent extraterrestrial life forms there are.
26
84574
3701
koliko inteligentnih izvenzemeljskih oblik življenja obstaja.
01:28
And it also gives Peter a 1 in 285,000 chance
27
88299
5294
Petru pa da tudi možnost 1 proti 285.000,
01:33
of bumping into any one of these special ladies
28
93617
2261
da se bo zaletel v eno od teh posebnih dam
01:35
on a given night out.
29
95902
1539
v določeni noči, ko gre ven.
01:37
I'd like to think that's why mathematicians
30
97465
2002
Mislim, da je to razlog, zakaj se matematiki
01:39
don't really bother going on nights out anymore.
31
99491
2458
v resnici več ne trudijo, da bi hodili ven.
A v bistvu se jaz osebno
01:43
The thing is that I personally don't subscribe
32
103109
2256
ne strinjam s tako pesimističnim pogledom.
01:45
to such a pessimistic view.
33
105389
1656
01:47
Because I know, just as well as all of you do,
34
107069
2589
Ker vem, tako dobro, kot vsi vi,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
35
109682
2372
da ljubezen v resnici ne deluje tako.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered and rational and easily predictable.
36
112078
4850
Človeško čustvo ni lepo urejeno in razumsko in enostavno predvidljivo.
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
37
117396
2221
Hkrati pa vem, da to ne pomeni,
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something that it can offer us,
38
119641
3280
da matematika nima ničesar, kar bi nam lahko ponudila,
02:02
because, love, as with most of life, is full of patterns
39
122945
3746
ker je ljubezen, kot večina življenja, polna vzorcev
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately, all about the study of patterns.
40
126715
4426
in matematika je konec koncev proučevanje vzorcev.
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather to the fluctuations in the stock market,
41
131165
4344
Od vzorcev napovedovanja vremena do nihanj na trgu vrednostnih papirjev,
02:15
to the movement of the planets or the growth of cities.
42
135533
3031
gibanja planetov ali rasti mest.
02:18
And if we're being honest, none of those things
43
138588
2290
In če smo pošteni, nič od tega
02:20
are exactly neatly ordered and easily predictable, either.
44
140902
3162
prav tako ni ravno lepo urejeno in enostavno predvidljivo.
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics is so powerful that it has the potential
45
144966
5178
Ker verjamem, da je matematika tako močna, da ima potencial,
da nam ponudi nov pogled na skoraj vse.
02:30
to offer us a new way of looking at almost anything.
46
150168
3321
02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
47
153513
2820
Tudi na nekaj tako skrivnostnega kot je ljubezen.
02:36
And so, to try to persuade you
48
156979
1672
Da bi vas torej prepričala,
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent and relevant mathematics is,
49
158675
4693
kako popolnoma osupljiva, odlična in pomembna je matematika,
02:43
I want to give you my top three mathematically verifiable tips for love.
50
163392
6683
vam želim dati tri najboljše matematično preverljive nasvete za ljubezen.
02:50
(Laughter)
51
170651
1765
Prav, torej najboljši nasvet št. 1:
02:52
OK, so Top Tip #1:
52
172440
1640
Kako zmagati v spletnih zmenkarijah.
02:54
How to win at online dating.
53
174104
2117
02:58
So my favorite online dating website is OkCupid,
54
178567
3371
Moja najljubša spletna stran za zmenkarije je OkCupid,
03:01
not least because it was started by a group of mathematicians.
55
181962
3588
med drugim zato, ker jo je ustvarila skupina matematikov.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
56
185574
1745
Ker so matematiki,
03:07
they have been collecting data
57
187343
1477
so zbirali podatke
03:08
on everybody who uses their site for almost a decade.
58
188844
3496
o vseh, ki uporabljajo njihovo stran, skoraj desetletje.
Poskušali so iskati vzorce
03:12
And they've been trying to search for patterns
59
192364
2150
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
60
194538
1863
v tem, kako govorimo o sebi
03:16
and the way that we interact with each other
61
196425
2059
in v tem, kako medsebojno komuniciramo
03:18
on an online dating website.
62
198508
1344
na spletni strani za zmenkarije.
03:19
And they've come up with some seriously interesting findings.
63
199876
2925
Tako so prišli do nekaterih resnično zanimivih odkritij.
03:22
But my particular favorite
64
202825
1598
A moje najljubše je to,
03:24
is that it turns out that on an online dating website,
65
204447
3356
da se izkaže, da na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
03:27
how attractive you are does not dictate how popular you are,
66
207827
5660
to, kako privlačen si, ne odloča o tvoji priljubljenosti,
03:33
and actually, having people think that you're ugly
67
213511
3856
in pravzaprav vam mišljenje ljudi, da ste grdi,
03:37
can work to your advantage.
68
217391
1895
lahko celo pomaga.
03:39
(Laughter)
69
219469
1150
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
70
220643
1670
Naj vam pokažem, kako to deluje.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary section of OkCupid,
71
222337
4379
V k sreči prostovoljnem delu strani OkCupid
03:46
you are allowed to rate how attractive you think people are
72
226740
2801
lahko ocenjujete, kako privlačni se vam zdijo ljudje,
03:49
on a scale between one and five.
73
229565
2285
na lestvici od 1 do 5.
03:51
Now, if we compare this score, the average score,
74
231874
2981
Če primerjate to oceno, povprečno oceno,
03:54
to how many messages a selection of people receive,
75
234879
3141
s številom sporočil, ki jih izbrani ljudje dobijo,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
76
238044
1523
lahko pričnete dobivati občutek,
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity on an online dating website.
77
239591
4408
kako je privlačnost povezana s priljubljenostjo na strani za zmenkarije.
To je grafikon, ki so ga dobili fantje z OkCupida.
04:04
This is the graph the OkCupid guys have come up with.
78
244023
3342
04:07
And the important thing to notice is that it's not totally true
79
247389
2994
Pomembno je, da opazimo, da ne drži popolnoma,
04:10
that the more attractive you are, the more messages you get.
80
250407
2825
da bolj kot ste privlačni, več sporočil dobite.
04:13
But the question arises then of what is it about people up here
81
253256
4255
Vendar se potem postavi vprašanje, kaj je takšnega na ljudeh tu zgoraj,
ki so toliko bolj priljubljeni od ljudi tu spodaj,
04:17
who are so much more popular than people down here,
82
257535
3863
04:21
even though they have the same score of attractiveness?
83
261422
3096
čeprav imajo enako oceno privlačnosti?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just straightforward looks that are important.
84
264542
4133
Razlog je v tem, da ni pomemben samo videz sam po sebi.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their findings with an example.
85
268699
2807
Naj vam njihova odkritja prikažem skozi primer.
04:31
So if you take someone like Portia de Rossi, for example,
86
271530
3918
Če na primer vzamete nekoga, kot je Portia de Rossi,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi is a very beautiful woman.
87
275472
4480
se vsi strinjajo, da je Portia de Rossi zelo lepa ženska.
04:39
Nobody thinks that she's ugly, but she's not a supermodel, either.
88
279976
3718
Nikomur se ne zdi grda, a tudi supermodel ni.
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
89
283718
4591
Če primerjate Portio de Rossi z nekom, kot je Sarah Jessica Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people, myself included, I should say,
90
288333
3682
mnogi, tudi jaz, moram reči,
menijo, da je Sarah Jessica Parker resnično čudovita
04:52
think that Sarah Jessica Parker is seriously fabulous
91
292039
4257
04:56
and possibly one of the most beautiful creatures
92
296320
2646
in verjetno ena od najlepših bitij,
04:58
to have ever have walked on the face of the Earth.
93
298990
2390
ki so kadarkoli hodile po Zemlji.
05:01
But some other people, i.e., most of the Internet ...
94
301404
4765
Nekateri drugi, na primer večina interneta,
05:06
(Laughter)
95
306193
2070
pa so zgleda mnenja, da izgleda kot konj. (smeh)
05:08
seem to think that she looks a bit like a horse.
96
308287
2386
05:10
(Laughter)
97
310697
2789
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people how attractive they thought
98
313510
4093
Mislim, da če bi vprašali ljudi, kako privlačni se jim zdita
05:17
Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
99
317627
1908
Sarah Jessica Parker ali Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give them a score between one and five
100
319559
2908
in naj ju ocenijo od 1 do 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out to have roughly the same score.
101
322491
3020
domnevam, da bi v povprečju imeli približno enako oceno.
05:25
But the way that people would vote would be very different.
102
325535
2764
Vendar bi bil način, na katerega bi glasovali, zelo različen.
05:28
So Portia's scores would all be clustered around the four
103
328323
2702
Ocene za Portio bi bile zgoščene okoli 4,
ker se vsi strinjajo, da je zelo lepa,
05:31
because everybody agrees that she's very beautiful,
104
331049
2431
medtem ko so za Sarah Jessico Parker mnenja zelo deljena.
05:33
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker completely divides opinion.
105
333504
2714
Njene ocene bi bile zelo razpršene.
05:36
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
106
336242
1976
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
107
338242
2349
A pravzaprav ravno ta razpršenost šteje.
05:40
It's this spread that makes you more popular
108
340615
2226
Ta razpršenost te naredi bolj priljubljenega
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
109
342865
2176
na spletni strani za zmenkarije.
05:45
So what that means then
110
345065
1188
To torej pomeni,
05:46
is that if some people think that you're attractive,
111
346277
2605
da če nekateri ljudje menijo, da ste privlačni,
05:48
you're actually better off
112
348906
1861
je za vas bolje,
05:50
having some other people think that you're a massive minger.
113
350791
3947
če nekateri drugi menijo, da ste grdi kot smrt.
05:55
That's much better than everybody just thinking
114
355935
2214
To je veliko bolje, kot da vsi mislijo,
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
115
358173
2063
da ste luštna punca iz soseske.
Mislim, da to dobi več smisla,
06:00
Now, I think this begins to make a bit more sense
116
360260
2325
06:02
when you think in terms of the people who are sending these messages.
117
362609
3270
ko razmišljate kot ljudje, ki pošiljajo ta sporočila.
06:05
So let's say that you think somebody's attractive,
118
365903
2358
Recimo, da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
vendar sumite, da drugi ne bodo nujno tako zainteresirani.
06:08
but you suspect that other people won't necessarily be that interested.
119
368285
3965
To pomeni, da imate manj konkurence
06:12
That means there's less competition for you
120
372274
2245
06:14
and it's an extra incentive for you to get in touch.
121
374543
2782
in to je dodatna vzpodbuda, da vzpostavite stik.
Primerjajte to s tem, da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
06:17
Whereas compare that to if you think somebody is attractive
122
377349
2785
vendar sumite, da se bo vsem zdel privlačen.
06:20
but you suspect that everybody is going to think they're attractive.
123
380158
3217
06:23
Well, why would you bother humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
124
383399
3205
Če smo pošteni, zakaj bi se trudili, da se ponižate?
Tu pa pride resnično zanimiv del.
06:27
But here's where the really interesting part comes.
125
387077
2393
Ko ljudje izbirajo slike, ki jih uporabijo na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
06:29
Because when people choose the pictures that they use on an online dating website,
126
389494
4180
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
127
393698
2176
pogosto poskušajo zmanjšati stvari,
06:35
that they think some people will find unattractive.
128
395898
3238
za katere mislijo, da bi se komu zdele neprivlačne.
06:39
The classic example is people who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
129
399160
4031
Klasičen primer je, ko ljudje, ki so morda nekoliko pretežki,
06:43
deliberately choosing a very cropped photo,
130
403215
2442
namenoma izberejo zelo obrezano sliko,
06:45
(Laughter)
131
405681
1351
ali pa plešasti moški, na primer,
06:47
or bald men, for example,
132
407056
1760
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures where they're wearing hats.
133
408840
2948
namenoma izberejo slike, na katerih nosijo klobuke.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite of what you should do
134
411812
2590
A v resnici je to nasprotno od tega, kar bi morali početi,
06:54
if you want to be successful.
135
414426
1390
če želite biti uspešni.
06:55
You should really, instead,
136
415840
1334
Namesto tega bi resnično morali poudariti, karkoli je tisto, kar vas dela drugačnega,
06:57
play up to whatever it is that makes you different,
137
417198
3158
07:00
even if you think that some people will find it unattractive.
138
420380
4151
četudi se vam zdi, da se boste nekaterim zdeli neprivlačni.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you are just going to fancy you anyway,
139
424555
3211
Ker ljudem, ki ste jim všeč, boste vseeno všeč,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't, well, they only play up to your advantage.
140
427790
4556
nepomembne zgube, ki jim niste všeč, pa vam bodo samo koristile.
07:12
OK, Top Tip #2: How to pick the perfect partner.
141
432370
2553
Prav, najboljši nasvet št. 2: Kako izbrati popolnega partnerja.
07:14
So let's imagine then that you're a roaring success
142
434947
2653
Predstavljajmo si, da ste izjemno uspešni
07:17
on the dating scene.
143
437624
1541
na sceni zmenkarij.
07:19
But the question arises of how do you then convert that success
144
439189
4535
A pojavi se vprašanje, kako pretvoriti ta uspeh
07:23
into longer-term happiness,
145
443748
2551
v dolgoročno srečo in še posebej,
07:26
and in particular, how do you decide when is the right time to settle down?
146
446323
5090
kako se odločiti, kdaj je pravi čas za ustalitev.
07:31
Now generally, it's not advisable to just cash in
147
451437
2808
Na splošno ni priporočljivo, da kar zagrabite
07:34
and marry the first person who comes along and shows you any interest at all.
148
454269
4123
in se poročite s prvo osebo, ki pride mimo
in pokaže nekaj zanimanja.
07:38
But, equally, you don't really want to leave it too long
149
458416
3121
A prav tako v resnici ne želite čakati predolgo,
07:41
if you want to maximize your chance of long-term happiness.
150
461561
2770
če želite povečati svoje možnosti za dolgoročno srečo.
07:44
As my favorite author, Jane Austen, puts it,
151
464355
3464
Kot pravi moja najljubša avtorica, Jane Austen,
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
152
467843
2194
"Neporočena ženska pri sedemindvajsetih
07:50
can never hope to feel or inspire affection again."
153
470061
3432
ne more več upati, da bo še kdaj čutila ali vzbudila naklonjenost."
07:53
(Laughter)
154
473517
2665
(smeh)
Res hvala, Jane. Kaj pa ti veš o ljubezni?
07:56
Thanks a lot, Jane.
155
476206
1182
07:57
What do you know about love?
156
477412
1413
07:58
(Laughter)
157
478849
1083
07:59
So the question is then,
158
479956
1909
Vprašanje je torej,
08:01
how do you know when is the right time to settle down,
159
481889
2589
kako veste, kdaj je pravi čas, da se ustalite,
če upoštevate vse, s katerimi lahko v življenju greste ven?
08:04
given all the people that you can date in your lifetime?
160
484502
2628
K sreči lahko uporabimo precej slasten del matematike,
08:07
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit of mathematics that we can use
161
487154
3450
08:10
to help us out here, called optimal stopping theory.
162
490628
2544
da nam pomaga in se imenuje teorija optimalnega ustavljanja.
08:13
So let's imagine, then,
163
493196
1981
Predstavljajmo si,
da začnete hoditi na zmenke, ko ste stari 15
08:15
that you start dating when you're 15
164
495201
2602
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married by the time that you're 35.
165
497827
3769
in v idealnem primeru si želite biti poročeni pri 35-ih.
08:21
And there's a number of people
166
501620
1442
Obstaja množica ljudi,
s katerimi bi v svojem življenju lahko hodili
08:23
that you could potentially date across your lifetime,
167
503086
2497
08:25
and they'll be at varying levels of goodness.
168
505607
2128
in bi bili na različnih stopnjah dobrote.
08:27
Now the rules are that once you cash in and get married,
169
507759
2665
Pravila so takšna, da ko enkrat zagrabite in se poročite,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see what you could have had,
170
510448
2430
ne morete gledati naprej, da bi videli, kar bi lahko imeli,
08:32
and equally, you can't go back and change your mind.
171
512902
2533
in enako, ne morete nazaj, da bi si premislili.
08:35
In my experience at least,
172
515459
1599
Vsaj po mojih izkušnjah
08:37
I find that typically people don't much like being recalled
173
517082
2798
sem ugotovila, da ljudje običajno ne marajo, da jih poiščete
08:39
years after being passed up for somebody else, or that's just me.
174
519904
5218
leta po tem, ko ste namesto njih izbrali nekoga drugega, ali pa sem to samo jaz.
08:45
So the math says then that what you should do
175
525146
3193
Matematika pravi, da kar morate narediti, je,
08:48
in the first 37 percent of your dating window,
176
528363
3171
da v prvih 37 % svojega okna za zmenke
08:51
you should just reject everybody as serious marriage potential.
177
531558
3757
vse zavrnete kot neresne potenciale za poroko.
08:55
(Laughter)
178
535339
2150
(smeh)
08:57
And then, you should pick the next person that comes along
179
537513
3624
Potem pa bi morali izbrati naslednjo osebo, ki pride mimo
09:01
that is better than everybody that you've seen before.
180
541161
2969
in je boljša od vseh, ki ste jih videli do takrat.
09:04
So here's the example.
181
544154
1421
Tu je primer.
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be mathematically proven, in fact,
182
545599
2867
Če to naredite, se lahko dejansko matematično dokaže,
09:08
that this is the best possible way
183
548490
2461
da je to najboljši možni način
09:10
of maximizing your chances of finding the perfect partner.
184
550975
4329
za povečanje vaših možnosti za najdbo popolnega partnerja.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that this method does come with some risks.
185
555328
4581
Žal vam moram povedati, da ta metoda prinaša tudi določena tveganja.
09:20
For instance, imagine if your perfect partner appeared
186
560604
4809
Na primer, predstavljajte si, da se je vaš popolni partner pojavil
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
187
565437
2682
med prvimi 37 odstotki.
09:28
Now, unfortunately, you'd have to reject them.
188
568143
2772
Žal bi jih morali zavrniti.
09:30
(Laughter)
189
570939
2689
(smeh)
Če sledite matematiki,
09:34
Now, if you're following the maths,
190
574129
2115
se bojim, da nihče ne pride mimo,
09:36
I'm afraid no one else comes along
191
576268
1633
09:37
that's better than anyone you've seen before,
192
577925
2271
ki bi bil boljši kot vsi, ki ste jih videli pred tem,
09:40
so you have to go on rejecting everyone and die alone.
193
580220
3849
zato morate še naprej vse zavračati in umreti sami.
09:44
(Laughter)
194
584093
1999
(smeh)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats ...
195
586560
1516
Verjetno obkroženi z mačkami, ki grizljajo vaše ostanke.
09:48
(Laughter)
196
588100
1619
09:49
nibbling at your remains.
197
589838
1567
09:51
OK, another risk is, let's imagine, instead,
198
591429
3969
Prav, drugo tveganje je, če si namesto tega predstavljate,
09:55
that the first people that you dated in your first 37 percent
199
595422
3116
da so prvi ljudje, s katerimi ste šli na zmenek v prvih 37 %,
09:58
are just incredibly dull, boring, terrible people.
200
598562
3921
tako neverjetno pusti, dolgočasni, grozni ljudje.
10:02
That's OK, because you're in your rejection phase,
201
602839
2382
To je sicer v redu, ker ste v fazi zavračanja,
10:05
so that's fine, you can reject them.
202
605245
1715
tako da je to ok, lahko jih zavrnete.
10:06
But then imagine the next person to come along
203
606984
3373
Ampak potem si predstavljajte, da je naslednja oseba, ki pride mimo,
10:10
is just marginally less boring, dull and terrible ...
204
610381
3330
le neznatno manj dolgočasna, pusta in grozna,
10:13
(Laughter)
205
613735
1099
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
206
614858
1898
kot vsi, ki ste jih videli do takrat.
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths, I'm afraid you have to marry them ...
207
616780
3595
Če sledite matematiki, se bojim, da se morate poročiti z njo
10:20
(Laughter)
208
620399
1055
in končati v razmerju, ki je, odkrito, neoptimalna.
10:21
and end up in a relationship which is, frankly, suboptimal.
209
621478
3143
10:24
Sorry about that.
210
624645
1153
Se opravičujem.
10:25
But I do think that there's an opportunity here for Hallmark to cash in on
211
625822
3500
Vendar mislim, da je tu priložnost
za Hallmark, da to unovči in resnično zadovolji ta trg.
10:29
and really cater for this market.
212
629346
1582
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
213
630952
1583
Kartica za Valentinovo kot je ta. (smeh)
10:32
(Laughter)
214
632559
1156
"Moj dragi mož, si neznatno manj grozen,
10:33
"My darling husband, you are marginally less terrible
215
633739
3002
10:36
than the first 37 percent of people I dated."
216
636765
2154
kot prvih 37 odstotkov ljudi, s katerimi sem bila na zmenku."
10:38
(Laughter)
217
638943
1630
V bistvu je bolj romantično, kot mi običajno uspeva.
10:40
It's actually more romantic than I normally manage.
218
640597
2838
10:43
(Laughter)
219
643745
1471
10:45
OK, so this method doesn't give you a 100 percent success rate,
220
645240
4661
Ta metoda vam torej ne daje 100 odstotne stopnje uspeha,
10:49
but there's no other possible strategy that can do any better.
221
649925
3435
vendar ni druge možne strategije, ki bi lahko bila boljša.
10:53
And actually, in the wild, there are certain types of fish
222
653384
3430
Pravzaprav so v divjini določene vrste
10:56
which follow and employ this exact strategy.
223
656838
2817
rib, ki sledijo in uporabljajo prav to strategijo.
10:59
So they reject every possible suitor that turns up
224
659679
2753
Tako zavrnejo vsakega možnega snubca, ki se pojavi
11:02
in the first 37 percent of the mating season,
225
662456
2689
v prvih 37 odstotkih sezone parjenja,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish that comes along after that window
226
665169
3751
potem pa izberejo prvo naslednjo ribo, ki pride mimo po tem oknu,
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
227
668944
2155
ki je, ne vem, večja in postavnejša,
11:11
than all of the fish that they've seen before.
228
671123
2578
kot vse ribe, ki so jih videle do takrat.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously, humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
229
673725
4877
Prav tako mislim, da podzavestno ljudje na nek način to tako ali tako počnemo.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time to play the field,
230
678626
2845
Nekaj časa si damo, da raziščemo teren,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace or whatever when we're young.
231
681495
3596
dobimo občutek za tržišče ali karkoli, ko smo mladi.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously at potential marriage candidates
232
685115
4590
Resno začnemo gledati za potencialnimi kandidati za poroko,
11:29
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
233
689729
2027
ko pridemo v srednja do pozna dvajseta.
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof, if ever it were needed,
234
691780
3210
Mislim, da je to prepričljiv dokaz, če je sploh bil potreben,
da so vsakogaršnji možgani narejeni tako, da so vsaj malo matematični.
11:35
that everybody's brains are prewired to be just a little bit mathematical.
235
695014
4208
11:39
OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
236
699450
2003
Prav, to je bil najboljši nasvet št. 2.
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
237
701477
3229
Zdaj pa najboljši nasvet št. 3: Kako se izogniti ločitvi.
Prav, zamislimo si torej, da ste si izbrali popolnega partnerja
11:45
OK, so let's imagine then that you picked your perfect partner
238
705351
2924
in se ustaljujete v doživljenjsko razmerje z njim.
11:48
and you're settling into a lifelong relationship with them.
239
708299
4229
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody would ideally like to avoid divorce,
240
712552
3986
Rada si mislim, da bi se vsak rad izognil ločitvi,
11:56
apart from, I don't know, Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
241
716562
4246
razen, ne vem, Piers Morganove žene, mogoče?
12:00
(Laughter)
242
720832
1150
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
243
722185
2420
A žalostno dejstvo sodobnega življenja je,
12:04
that one in two marriages in the States ends in divorce,
244
724629
3260
da se vsak drug zakon v Združenih državah konča z razvezo,
12:07
with the rest of the world not being far behind.
245
727913
3792
ostali svet pa ne zaostaja veliko.
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
246
731729
1834
Morda se vam lahko oprosti,
12:13
for thinking that the arguments that precede a marital breakup
247
733587
3733
da mislite, da prepiri, ki se pojavijo pred razdorom zakona
12:17
are not an ideal candidate for mathematical investigation.
248
737344
3790
niso idealni kandidat za matematično preiskavo.
Kot prvo je zelo težko vedeti,
12:21
For one thing, it's very hard to know
249
741359
1782
kaj bi naj meril, ali kaj bi naj preštel.
12:23
what you should be measuring or what you should be quantifying.
250
743165
3077
A to ni ustavilo psihologa Johna Gottmana, ki je naredil natančno to.
12:26
But this didn't stop a psychologist, John Gottman, who did exactly that.
251
746266
6183
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples having a conversation
252
752473
5237
Gottman je opazoval stotine parov, ki so se pogovarjali
12:37
and recorded, well, everything you can think of.
253
757734
2306
in posnel, torej, vse, kar si lahko zamislite.
12:40
So he recorded what was said in the conversation,
254
760064
2367
Tako je posnel vse, kar je bilo izrečeno v pogovoru,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
255
762455
2293
posnel je prevodnost njune kože,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
256
764772
2063
posnel je njuno obrazno mimiko,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
257
766859
1991
njun srčni utrip, njun krvni tlak,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether or not the wife was actually always right,
258
768874
6236
v bistvu vse, razen tega, ali ima žena vedno vse prav ali ne,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
259
775134
3191
kar, mimogrede, seveda ima.
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
260
778349
2649
A Gottman je s svojo ekipo odkril,
13:01
was that one of the most important predictors
261
781022
3015
da je en od najpomembnejših napovedovalcev,
ali se bo par razšel ali ne,
13:04
for whether or not a couple is going to get divorced
262
784061
2482
bilo to, kako pozitiven ali negativen je bil v pogovoru vsak od partnerjev.
13:06
was how positive or negative each partner was being in the conversation.
263
786567
4623
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
264
791214
2330
Pari z zelo nizkim tveganjem
13:13
scored a lot more positive points on Gottman's scale than negative.
265
793568
4269
so dobili veliko več pozitivnih točk na Gottmanovi lestvici kot negativnih.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
266
797861
2541
Medtem ko so se slaba razmerja,
13:20
by which I mean, probably going to get divorced,
267
800426
2747
s čimer mislim, da se bosta verjetno ločila,
znašla v spirali negativnosti.
13:23
they found themselves getting into a spiral of negativity.
268
803197
4357
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
269
807578
2260
Samo z uporabo teh preprostih idej
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
270
809862
2471
je Gottman s svojo ekipo uspel predvideti,
13:32
whether a given couple was going to get divorced
271
812357
2722
ali se bo določen par ločil
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
272
815103
2185
z 90-odstotno natančnostjo.
Vendar so šele takrat, ko se je združil z matematikom Jamesom Murrayjem,
13:38
But it wasn't until he teamed up with a mathematician, James Murray,
273
818005
3289
13:41
that they really started to understand
274
821318
1891
resnično začeli razumeti,
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals and how they occur.
275
823233
4494
kaj povzroča te spirale negativnosti in kako se pojavijo.
13:47
And the results that they found,
276
827751
1533
Rezultati, ki so jih odkrili,
13:49
I think, are just incredibly impressively simple and interesting.
277
829308
4649
so po mojem mnenju neverjetno in impresivno preprosti in zanimivi.
13:53
So these equations predict how the wife or husband is going to respond
278
833981
4563
Ti enačbi predvidita odziv žene ali moža,
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
279
838568
1888
ko bo na vrsti v pogovoru,
kako bosta pozitivna ali negativna.
14:00
how positive or negative they're going to be.
280
840480
2133
14:02
And these equations depend on
281
842637
1385
Ti enačbi sta odvisni od
razpoloženja osebe, ko je sama,
14:04
the mood of the person when they're on their own,
282
844046
2306
14:06
the mood of the person when they're with their partner,
283
846376
2614
razpoloženja osebe, ko je s svojim partnerjem,
a najpomembneje, odvisni sta od tega,
14:09
but most importantly, they depend on
284
849014
1725
14:10
how much the husband and wife influence one another.
285
850763
3032
kako močno mož in žena vplivata drug na drugega.
Mislim, da je pomembno, da na tej točki poudarim,
14:14
Now, I think it's important to point out at this stage,
286
854115
2607
14:16
that these exact equations have also been shown
287
856746
3509
da se je izkazalo, da sta ti isti enačbi
bili popolnoma sposobni opisati,
14:20
to be perfectly able at describing
288
860279
2195
14:22
what happens between two countries in an arms race.
289
862498
3734
kaj se zgodi med dvema državama v tekmi oboroževanja.
(smeh)
14:27
(Laughter)
290
867010
3088
14:30
So that an arguing couple spiraling into negativity
291
870300
3581
To - prepirajoč par v spirali negativnosti
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce
292
873905
1905
in visenje na robu prepada ločitve -
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to the beginning of a nuclear war.
293
875834
4249
je pravzaprav matematično enakovredno začetku jedrske vojne.
14:40
(Laughter)
294
880107
2890
(smeh)
A resnično pomemben termin v tej enačbi
14:43
But the really important term in this equation
295
883021
2313
14:45
is the influence that people have on one another,
296
885358
2495
je vpliv, ki ga imajo ljudje drug na drugega,
14:47
and in particular, something called "the negativity threshold."
297
887877
3257
in še posebej, nekaj, čemur se reče prag negativnosti.
Prag negativnosti
14:51
Now, the negativity threshold,
298
891158
1732
14:52
you can think of as how annoying the husband can be
299
892914
4627
si lahko predstavljate kot, kako siten je lahko mož,
14:57
before the wife starts to get really pissed off, and vice versa.
300
897565
4263
preden žena resnično postane besna in obratno.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages were about compromise and understanding
301
901852
4532
Vedno sem mislila, da dobri zakoni temeljijo na kompromisu in razumevanju
15:06
and allowing the person to have the space to be themselves.
302
906408
2762
in dopuščanju, da ima oseba prostor, da je, kar je.
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps the most successful relationships
303
909194
3353
Tako bi si mislila, da so morda najuspešnejša razmerja
15:12
were ones where there was a really high negativity threshold.
304
912571
3280
tista, ki imajo zelo visok prag negativnosti.
15:15
Where couples let things go
305
915875
1793
Kjer pari pustijo, da gredo stvari mimo,
15:17
and only brought things up if they really were a big deal.
306
917692
2771
in jih privlečejo na dan samo, če so resnično velika stvar.
15:20
But actually, the mathematics and subsequent findings by the team
307
920487
4251
V resnici pa so matematika in kasnejša odkritja ekipe
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
308
924762
2532
pokazala ravno nasprotno.
15:27
The best couples, or the most successful couples,
309
927799
2309
Najboljši pari, ali najuspešnejši pari
so tisti, ki imajo zelo nizek prag negativnosti.
15:30
are the ones with a really low negativity threshold.
310
930132
3363
15:33
These are the couples that don't let anything go unnoticed
311
933519
3634
To so pari, ki ničemur ne dovolijo, da gre mimo neopaženo
15:37
and allow each other some room to complain.
312
937177
3198
in si vzajemno dopuščajo nekaj prostora za pritoževanje.
15:40
These are the couples that are continually trying to repair their own relationship,
313
940399
5234
To so pari, ki se nenehno trudijo popraviti svoje razmerje,
15:45
that have a much more positive outlook on their marriage.
314
945657
2743
ki imajo veliko bolj pozitivno sliko o svojem zakonu.
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
315
948424
2068
Pari, ki ne pustijo, da gredo stvari mimo
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things end up being a really big deal.
316
950516
4880
in pari, ki ne pustijo, da bi nepomembne stvari postale resnično velika stvar.
15:56
Now of course, it takes a bit more than just a low negativity threshold
317
956426
5258
Seveda je potrebno nekaj več, kot le nizek prag negativnosti
16:01
and not compromising to have a successful relationship.
318
961708
4368
in nesklepanje kompromisov, da bi imeli uspešno razmerje.
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
319
966100
2526
Ampak mislim, da je zelo zanimivo
16:08
to know that there is really mathematical evidence
320
968650
2354
vedeti, da obstaja matematični dokaz,
16:11
to say that you should never let the sun go down on your anger.
321
971028
3428
ki pravi, da nikoli ne smemo pustiti, da bi sonce zašlo nad našo jezo.
16:14
So those are my top three tips
322
974480
1684
To so torej moji trije nasveti,
16:16
of how maths can help you with love and relationships.
323
976188
3171
kako vam lahko matematika pomaga pri ljubezni in odnosih.
16:19
But I hope, that aside from their use as tips,
324
979383
2395
A upam, da vam bodo poleg tega, da so nasveti,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight into the power of mathematics.
325
981802
4102
dali tudi nekaj uvida v moč matematike.
16:25
Because for me, equations and symbols aren't just a thing.
326
985928
4341
Zame namreč enačbe in simboli niso samo stvar.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out about the incredible richness of nature
327
990684
4411
So glas, ki govori o neverjetnem bogastvu narave
16:35
and the startling simplicity
328
995119
1786
in vznemirljivi preprostosti
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn and warp and evolve all around us,
329
996929
4813
v vzorcih, ki se zvijajo in obračajo in raztezajo in razvijajo vse okoli nas,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
330
1001766
2580
od tega, kako deluje svet, do tega, kako se obnašamo.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps, for just a couple of you,
331
1004370
2310
Zato upam, da vas mogoče vsaj nekaj od vas
16:46
a little bit of insight into the mathematics of love
332
1006704
2485
malo uvida v matematiko ljubezni
lahko prepriča, da boste imeli malo več ljubezni do matematike.
16:49
can persuade you to have a little bit more love for mathematics.
333
1009213
3297
16:52
Thank you.
334
1012534
1199
Hvala.
16:53
(Applause)
335
1013757
7000
(aplavz)
O tej spletni strani

Na tem mestu boste našli videoposnetke na YouTubu, ki so uporabni za učenje angleščine. Ogledali si boste lekcije angleščine, ki jih poučujejo vrhunski učitelji z vsega sveta. Z dvoklikom na angleške podnapise, ki so prikazani na vsaki strani z videoposnetki, lahko predvajate videoposnetek od tam. Podnapisi se pomikajo sinhronizirano s predvajanjem videoposnetka. Če imate kakršne koli pripombe ali zahteve, nam pišite prek tega obrazca za stike.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7