The mathematics of love | Hannah Fry

1,283,770 views ・ 2015-02-13

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Translator: Matej Divjak Reviewer: Nika Kotnik
00:12
Today I want to talk to you about the mathematics of love.
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Danes bi vam rada govorila o matematiki ljubezni.
Mislim, da se lahko vsi strinjamo,
00:17
Now, I think that we can all agree
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00:18
that mathematicians are famously excellent at finding love.
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da matematiki slovijo po tem, da so odlični v iskanju ljubezni.
00:22
(Laughter)
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00:23
But it's not just because of our dashing personalities,
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A ne le zaradi naših sijajnih osebnosti,
00:26
superior conversational skills and excellent pencil cases.
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superiornih pogovornih spretnosti in odličnih peresnic za svinčnike.
Ampak tudi zato, ker smo dejansko naredili ogromno dela glede matematike,
00:32
It's also because we've actually done an awful lot of work into the maths
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00:35
of how to find the perfect partner.
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kako najti popolnega partnerja.
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper on the subject, which is entitled,
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V mojem najljubšem članku o tej temi, ki nosi naslov:
"Zakaj nimam punce" - (smeh) -
00:42
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
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00:43
(Laughter)
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00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate his chances of finding love.
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Peter Backus poskuša oceniti svoje možnosti, da najde ljubezen.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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A Peter ni zelo pohlepen.
00:51
Of all of the available women in the UK,
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Med vsemi možnimi ženskami v Združenem kraljestvu
00:53
all Peter's looking for is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter išče le takšno, ki živi blizu njega,
ki je v pravem starostnem razponu,
00:57
somebody in the right age range,
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00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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ki ima univerzitetno diplomo,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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s katero se bo verjetno lepo ujel,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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ki je verjetno privlačna,
01:05
somebody who's likely to find him attractive.
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ki se ji bo on verjetno zdel privlačen.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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Oceni, da je v celotnem Združenem kraljestvu 26 takšnih žensk.
01:16
(Laughter)
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01:17
It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
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To pa ni preveč obetavno, kaj Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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Če to postavimo v perspektivo,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer than the best estimates
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je to približno 400-krat manj, kot so najboljše ocene,
01:24
of how many intelligent extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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koliko inteligentnih izvenzemeljskih oblik življenja obstaja.
01:28
And it also gives Peter a 1 in 285,000 chance
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Petru pa da tudi možnost 1 proti 285.000,
01:33
of bumping into any one of these special ladies
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da se bo zaletel v eno od teh posebnih dam
01:35
on a given night out.
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v določeni noči, ko gre ven.
01:37
I'd like to think that's why mathematicians
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Mislim, da je to razlog, zakaj se matematiki
01:39
don't really bother going on nights out anymore.
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v resnici več ne trudijo, da bi hodili ven.
A v bistvu se jaz osebno
01:43
The thing is that I personally don't subscribe
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ne strinjam s tako pesimističnim pogledom.
01:45
to such a pessimistic view.
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01:47
Because I know, just as well as all of you do,
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Ker vem, tako dobro, kot vsi vi,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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da ljubezen v resnici ne deluje tako.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered and rational and easily predictable.
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Človeško čustvo ni lepo urejeno in razumsko in enostavno predvidljivo.
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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Hkrati pa vem, da to ne pomeni,
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something that it can offer us,
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da matematika nima ničesar, kar bi nam lahko ponudila,
02:02
because, love, as with most of life, is full of patterns
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ker je ljubezen, kot večina življenja, polna vzorcev
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately, all about the study of patterns.
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in matematika je konec koncev proučevanje vzorcev.
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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Od vzorcev napovedovanja vremena do nihanj na trgu vrednostnih papirjev,
02:15
to the movement of the planets or the growth of cities.
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gibanja planetov ali rasti mest.
02:18
And if we're being honest, none of those things
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In če smo pošteni, nič od tega
02:20
are exactly neatly ordered and easily predictable, either.
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prav tako ni ravno lepo urejeno in enostavno predvidljivo.
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics is so powerful that it has the potential
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Ker verjamem, da je matematika tako močna, da ima potencial,
da nam ponudi nov pogled na skoraj vse.
02:30
to offer us a new way of looking at almost anything.
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02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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Tudi na nekaj tako skrivnostnega kot je ljubezen.
02:36
And so, to try to persuade you
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Da bi vas torej prepričala,
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent and relevant mathematics is,
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kako popolnoma osupljiva, odlična in pomembna je matematika,
02:43
I want to give you my top three mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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vam želim dati tri najboljše matematično preverljive nasvete za ljubezen.
02:50
(Laughter)
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Prav, torej najboljši nasvet št. 1:
02:52
OK, so Top Tip #1:
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Kako zmagati v spletnih zmenkarijah.
02:54
How to win at online dating.
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02:58
So my favorite online dating website is OkCupid,
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Moja najljubša spletna stran za zmenkarije je OkCupid,
03:01
not least because it was started by a group of mathematicians.
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med drugim zato, ker jo je ustvarila skupina matematikov.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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Ker so matematiki,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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so zbirali podatke
03:08
on everybody who uses their site for almost a decade.
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o vseh, ki uporabljajo njihovo stran, skoraj desetletje.
Poskušali so iskati vzorce
03:12
And they've been trying to search for patterns
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03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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v tem, kako govorimo o sebi
03:16
and the way that we interact with each other
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in v tem, kako medsebojno komuniciramo
03:18
on an online dating website.
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na spletni strani za zmenkarije.
03:19
And they've come up with some seriously interesting findings.
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Tako so prišli do nekaterih resnično zanimivih odkritij.
03:22
But my particular favorite
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A moje najljubše je to,
03:24
is that it turns out that on an online dating website,
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da se izkaže, da na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
03:27
how attractive you are does not dictate how popular you are,
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to, kako privlačen si, ne odloča o tvoji priljubljenosti,
03:33
and actually, having people think that you're ugly
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in pravzaprav vam mišljenje ljudi, da ste grdi,
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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lahko celo pomaga.
03:39
(Laughter)
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03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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Naj vam pokažem, kako to deluje.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary section of OkCupid,
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V k sreči prostovoljnem delu strani OkCupid
03:46
you are allowed to rate how attractive you think people are
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lahko ocenjujete, kako privlačni se vam zdijo ljudje,
03:49
on a scale between one and five.
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na lestvici od 1 do 5.
03:51
Now, if we compare this score, the average score,
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Če primerjate to oceno, povprečno oceno,
03:54
to how many messages a selection of people receive,
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s številom sporočil, ki jih izbrani ljudje dobijo,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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lahko pričnete dobivati občutek,
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity on an online dating website.
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kako je privlačnost povezana s priljubljenostjo na strani za zmenkarije.
To je grafikon, ki so ga dobili fantje z OkCupida.
04:04
This is the graph the OkCupid guys have come up with.
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04:07
And the important thing to notice is that it's not totally true
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Pomembno je, da opazimo, da ne drži popolnoma,
04:10
that the more attractive you are, the more messages you get.
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da bolj kot ste privlačni, več sporočil dobite.
04:13
But the question arises then of what is it about people up here
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Vendar se potem postavi vprašanje, kaj je takšnega na ljudeh tu zgoraj,
ki so toliko bolj priljubljeni od ljudi tu spodaj,
04:17
who are so much more popular than people down here,
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04:21
even though they have the same score of attractiveness?
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čeprav imajo enako oceno privlačnosti?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just straightforward looks that are important.
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Razlog je v tem, da ni pomemben samo videz sam po sebi.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their findings with an example.
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Naj vam njihova odkritja prikažem skozi primer.
04:31
So if you take someone like Portia de Rossi, for example,
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Če na primer vzamete nekoga, kot je Portia de Rossi,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi is a very beautiful woman.
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se vsi strinjajo, da je Portia de Rossi zelo lepa ženska.
04:39
Nobody thinks that she's ugly, but she's not a supermodel, either.
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Nikomur se ne zdi grda, a tudi supermodel ni.
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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Če primerjate Portio de Rossi z nekom, kot je Sarah Jessica Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people, myself included, I should say,
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mnogi, tudi jaz, moram reči,
menijo, da je Sarah Jessica Parker resnično čudovita
04:52
think that Sarah Jessica Parker is seriously fabulous
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04:56
and possibly one of the most beautiful creatures
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in verjetno ena od najlepših bitij,
04:58
to have ever have walked on the face of the Earth.
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ki so kadarkoli hodile po Zemlji.
05:01
But some other people, i.e., most of the Internet ...
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Nekateri drugi, na primer večina interneta,
05:06
(Laughter)
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pa so zgleda mnenja, da izgleda kot konj. (smeh)
05:08
seem to think that she looks a bit like a horse.
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05:10
(Laughter)
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05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people how attractive they thought
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Mislim, da če bi vprašali ljudi, kako privlačni se jim zdita
05:17
Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker ali Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give them a score between one and five
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in naj ju ocenijo od 1 do 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out to have roughly the same score.
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domnevam, da bi v povprečju imeli približno enako oceno.
05:25
But the way that people would vote would be very different.
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Vendar bi bil način, na katerega bi glasovali, zelo različen.
05:28
So Portia's scores would all be clustered around the four
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Ocene za Portio bi bile zgoščene okoli 4,
ker se vsi strinjajo, da je zelo lepa,
05:31
because everybody agrees that she's very beautiful,
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medtem ko so za Sarah Jessico Parker mnenja zelo deljena.
05:33
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker completely divides opinion.
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Njene ocene bi bile zelo razpršene.
05:36
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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A pravzaprav ravno ta razpršenost šteje.
05:40
It's this spread that makes you more popular
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Ta razpršenost te naredi bolj priljubljenega
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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na spletni strani za zmenkarije.
05:45
So what that means then
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To torej pomeni,
05:46
is that if some people think that you're attractive,
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da če nekateri ljudje menijo, da ste privlačni,
05:48
you're actually better off
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je za vas bolje,
05:50
having some other people think that you're a massive minger.
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če nekateri drugi menijo, da ste grdi kot smrt.
05:55
That's much better than everybody just thinking
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To je veliko bolje, kot da vsi mislijo,
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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da ste luštna punca iz soseske.
Mislim, da to dobi več smisla,
06:00
Now, I think this begins to make a bit more sense
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06:02
when you think in terms of the people who are sending these messages.
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ko razmišljate kot ljudje, ki pošiljajo ta sporočila.
06:05
So let's say that you think somebody's attractive,
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Recimo, da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
vendar sumite, da drugi ne bodo nujno tako zainteresirani.
06:08
but you suspect that other people won't necessarily be that interested.
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To pomeni, da imate manj konkurence
06:12
That means there's less competition for you
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06:14
and it's an extra incentive for you to get in touch.
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in to je dodatna vzpodbuda, da vzpostavite stik.
Primerjajte to s tem, da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
06:17
Whereas compare that to if you think somebody is attractive
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vendar sumite, da se bo vsem zdel privlačen.
06:20
but you suspect that everybody is going to think they're attractive.
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06:23
Well, why would you bother humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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Če smo pošteni, zakaj bi se trudili, da se ponižate?
Tu pa pride resnično zanimiv del.
06:27
But here's where the really interesting part comes.
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Ko ljudje izbirajo slike, ki jih uporabijo na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
06:29
Because when people choose the pictures that they use on an online dating website,
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06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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pogosto poskušajo zmanjšati stvari,
06:35
that they think some people will find unattractive.
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za katere mislijo, da bi se komu zdele neprivlačne.
06:39
The classic example is people who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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Klasičen primer je, ko ljudje, ki so morda nekoliko pretežki,
06:43
deliberately choosing a very cropped photo,
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namenoma izberejo zelo obrezano sliko,
06:45
(Laughter)
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ali pa plešasti moški, na primer,
06:47
or bald men, for example,
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06:48
deliberately choosing pictures where they're wearing hats.
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namenoma izberejo slike, na katerih nosijo klobuke.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite of what you should do
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A v resnici je to nasprotno od tega, kar bi morali početi,
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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če želite biti uspešni.
06:55
You should really, instead,
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Namesto tega bi resnično morali poudariti, karkoli je tisto, kar vas dela drugačnega,
06:57
play up to whatever it is that makes you different,
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07:00
even if you think that some people will find it unattractive.
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četudi se vam zdi, da se boste nekaterim zdeli neprivlačni.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you are just going to fancy you anyway,
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Ker ljudem, ki ste jim všeč, boste vseeno všeč,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't, well, they only play up to your advantage.
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nepomembne zgube, ki jim niste všeč, pa vam bodo samo koristile.
07:12
OK, Top Tip #2: How to pick the perfect partner.
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Prav, najboljši nasvet št. 2: Kako izbrati popolnega partnerja.
07:14
So let's imagine then that you're a roaring success
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Predstavljajmo si, da ste izjemno uspešni
07:17
on the dating scene.
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na sceni zmenkarij.
07:19
But the question arises of how do you then convert that success
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A pojavi se vprašanje, kako pretvoriti ta uspeh
07:23
into longer-term happiness,
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v dolgoročno srečo in še posebej,
07:26
and in particular, how do you decide when is the right time to settle down?
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kako se odločiti, kdaj je pravi čas za ustalitev.
07:31
Now generally, it's not advisable to just cash in
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Na splošno ni priporočljivo, da kar zagrabite
07:34
and marry the first person who comes along and shows you any interest at all.
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in se poročite s prvo osebo, ki pride mimo
in pokaže nekaj zanimanja.
07:38
But, equally, you don't really want to leave it too long
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A prav tako v resnici ne želite čakati predolgo,
07:41
if you want to maximize your chance of long-term happiness.
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če želite povečati svoje možnosti za dolgoročno srečo.
07:44
As my favorite author, Jane Austen, puts it,
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Kot pravi moja najljubša avtorica, Jane Austen,
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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"Neporočena ženska pri sedemindvajsetih
07:50
can never hope to feel or inspire affection again."
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ne more več upati, da bo še kdaj čutila ali vzbudila naklonjenost."
07:53
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Res hvala, Jane. Kaj pa ti veš o ljubezni?
07:56
Thanks a lot, Jane.
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07:57
What do you know about love?
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07:58
(Laughter)
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07:59
So the question is then,
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Vprašanje je torej,
08:01
how do you know when is the right time to settle down,
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kako veste, kdaj je pravi čas, da se ustalite,
če upoštevate vse, s katerimi lahko v življenju greste ven?
08:04
given all the people that you can date in your lifetime?
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K sreči lahko uporabimo precej slasten del matematike,
08:07
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit of mathematics that we can use
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08:10
to help us out here, called optimal stopping theory.
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da nam pomaga in se imenuje teorija optimalnega ustavljanja.
08:13
So let's imagine, then,
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Predstavljajmo si,
da začnete hoditi na zmenke, ko ste stari 15
08:15
that you start dating when you're 15
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08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married by the time that you're 35.
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in v idealnem primeru si želite biti poročeni pri 35-ih.
08:21
And there's a number of people
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Obstaja množica ljudi,
s katerimi bi v svojem življenju lahko hodili
08:23
that you could potentially date across your lifetime,
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08:25
and they'll be at varying levels of goodness.
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in bi bili na različnih stopnjah dobrote.
08:27
Now the rules are that once you cash in and get married,
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Pravila so takšna, da ko enkrat zagrabite in se poročite,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see what you could have had,
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ne morete gledati naprej, da bi videli, kar bi lahko imeli,
08:32
and equally, you can't go back and change your mind.
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in enako, ne morete nazaj, da bi si premislili.
08:35
In my experience at least,
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Vsaj po mojih izkušnjah
08:37
I find that typically people don't much like being recalled
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sem ugotovila, da ljudje običajno ne marajo, da jih poiščete
08:39
years after being passed up for somebody else, or that's just me.
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leta po tem, ko ste namesto njih izbrali nekoga drugega, ali pa sem to samo jaz.
08:45
So the math says then that what you should do
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Matematika pravi, da kar morate narediti, je,
08:48
in the first 37 percent of your dating window,
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da v prvih 37 % svojega okna za zmenke
08:51
you should just reject everybody as serious marriage potential.
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vse zavrnete kot neresne potenciale za poroko.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
08:57
And then, you should pick the next person that comes along
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Potem pa bi morali izbrati naslednjo osebo, ki pride mimo
09:01
that is better than everybody that you've seen before.
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in je boljša od vseh, ki ste jih videli do takrat.
09:04
So here's the example.
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Tu je primer.
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be mathematically proven, in fact,
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Če to naredite, se lahko dejansko matematično dokaže,
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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da je to najboljši možni način
09:10
of maximizing your chances of finding the perfect partner.
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za povečanje vaših možnosti za najdbo popolnega partnerja.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that this method does come with some risks.
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Žal vam moram povedati, da ta metoda prinaša tudi določena tveganja.
09:20
For instance, imagine if your perfect partner appeared
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Na primer, predstavljajte si, da se je vaš popolni partner pojavil
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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med prvimi 37 odstotki.
09:28
Now, unfortunately, you'd have to reject them.
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Žal bi jih morali zavrniti.
09:30
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Če sledite matematiki,
09:34
Now, if you're following the maths,
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se bojim, da nihče ne pride mimo,
09:36
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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09:37
that's better than anyone you've seen before,
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ki bi bil boljši kot vsi, ki ste jih videli pred tem,
09:40
so you have to go on rejecting everyone and die alone.
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zato morate še naprej vse zavračati in umreti sami.
09:44
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats ...
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Verjetno obkroženi z mačkami, ki grizljajo vaše ostanke.
09:48
(Laughter)
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09:49
nibbling at your remains.
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09:51
OK, another risk is, let's imagine, instead,
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Prav, drugo tveganje je, če si namesto tega predstavljate,
09:55
that the first people that you dated in your first 37 percent
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da so prvi ljudje, s katerimi ste šli na zmenek v prvih 37 %,
09:58
are just incredibly dull, boring, terrible people.
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tako neverjetno pusti, dolgočasni, grozni ljudje.
10:02
That's OK, because you're in your rejection phase,
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To je sicer v redu, ker ste v fazi zavračanja,
10:05
so that's fine, you can reject them.
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tako da je to ok, lahko jih zavrnete.
10:06
But then imagine the next person to come along
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Ampak potem si predstavljajte, da je naslednja oseba, ki pride mimo,
10:10
is just marginally less boring, dull and terrible ...
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le neznatno manj dolgočasna, pusta in grozna,
10:13
(Laughter)
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10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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kot vsi, ki ste jih videli do takrat.
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths, I'm afraid you have to marry them ...
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Če sledite matematiki, se bojim, da se morate poročiti z njo
10:20
(Laughter)
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in končati v razmerju, ki je, odkrito, neoptimalna.
10:21
and end up in a relationship which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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10:24
Sorry about that.
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Se opravičujem.
10:25
But I do think that there's an opportunity here for Hallmark to cash in on
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Vendar mislim, da je tu priložnost
za Hallmark, da to unovči in resnično zadovolji ta trg.
10:29
and really cater for this market.
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10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
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Kartica za Valentinovo kot je ta. (smeh)
10:32
(Laughter)
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"Moj dragi mož, si neznatno manj grozen,
10:33
"My darling husband, you are marginally less terrible
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10:36
than the first 37 percent of people I dated."
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kot prvih 37 odstotkov ljudi, s katerimi sem bila na zmenku."
10:38
(Laughter)
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V bistvu je bolj romantično, kot mi običajno uspeva.
10:40
It's actually more romantic than I normally manage.
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10:43
(Laughter)
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10:45
OK, so this method doesn't give you a 100 percent success rate,
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Ta metoda vam torej ne daje 100 odstotne stopnje uspeha,
10:49
but there's no other possible strategy that can do any better.
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vendar ni druge možne strategije, ki bi lahko bila boljša.
10:53
And actually, in the wild, there are certain types of fish
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Pravzaprav so v divjini določene vrste
10:56
which follow and employ this exact strategy.
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rib, ki sledijo in uporabljajo prav to strategijo.
10:59
So they reject every possible suitor that turns up
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Tako zavrnejo vsakega možnega snubca, ki se pojavi
11:02
in the first 37 percent of the mating season,
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v prvih 37 odstotkih sezone parjenja,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish that comes along after that window
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potem pa izberejo prvo naslednjo ribo, ki pride mimo po tem oknu,
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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ki je, ne vem, večja in postavnejša,
11:11
than all of the fish that they've seen before.
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kot vse ribe, ki so jih videle do takrat.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously, humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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Prav tako mislim, da podzavestno ljudje na nek način to tako ali tako počnemo.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time to play the field,
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Nekaj časa si damo, da raziščemo teren,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace or whatever when we're young.
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dobimo občutek za tržišče ali karkoli, ko smo mladi.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously at potential marriage candidates
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Resno začnemo gledati za potencialnimi kandidati za poroko,
11:29
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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ko pridemo v srednja do pozna dvajseta.
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof, if ever it were needed,
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Mislim, da je to prepričljiv dokaz, če je sploh bil potreben,
da so vsakogaršnji možgani narejeni tako, da so vsaj malo matematični.
11:35
that everybody's brains are prewired to be just a little bit mathematical.
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11:39
OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
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Prav, to je bil najboljši nasvet št. 2.
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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Zdaj pa najboljši nasvet št. 3: Kako se izogniti ločitvi.
Prav, zamislimo si torej, da ste si izbrali popolnega partnerja
11:45
OK, so let's imagine then that you picked your perfect partner
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in se ustaljujete v doživljenjsko razmerje z njim.
11:48
and you're settling into a lifelong relationship with them.
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11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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Rada si mislim, da bi se vsak rad izognil ločitvi,
11:56
apart from, I don't know, Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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razen, ne vem, Piers Morganove žene, mogoče?
12:00
(Laughter)
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12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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A žalostno dejstvo sodobnega življenja je,
12:04
that one in two marriages in the States ends in divorce,
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da se vsak drug zakon v Združenih državah konča z razvezo,
12:07
with the rest of the world not being far behind.
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ostali svet pa ne zaostaja veliko.
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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Morda se vam lahko oprosti,
12:13
for thinking that the arguments that precede a marital breakup
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da mislite, da prepiri, ki se pojavijo pred razdorom zakona
12:17
are not an ideal candidate for mathematical investigation.
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niso idealni kandidat za matematično preiskavo.
Kot prvo je zelo težko vedeti,
12:21
For one thing, it's very hard to know
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kaj bi naj meril, ali kaj bi naj preštel.
12:23
what you should be measuring or what you should be quantifying.
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A to ni ustavilo psihologa Johna Gottmana, ki je naredil natančno to.
12:26
But this didn't stop a psychologist, John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples having a conversation
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Gottman je opazoval stotine parov, ki so se pogovarjali
12:37
and recorded, well, everything you can think of.
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in posnel, torej, vse, kar si lahko zamislite.
12:40
So he recorded what was said in the conversation,
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Tako je posnel vse, kar je bilo izrečeno v pogovoru,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
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posnel je prevodnost njune kože,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
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posnel je njuno obrazno mimiko,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
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njun srčni utrip, njun krvni tlak,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether or not the wife was actually always right,
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v bistvu vse, razen tega, ali ima žena vedno vse prav ali ne,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
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kar, mimogrede, seveda ima.
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
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A Gottman je s svojo ekipo odkril,
13:01
was that one of the most important predictors
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da je en od najpomembnejših napovedovalcev,
ali se bo par razšel ali ne,
13:04
for whether or not a couple is going to get divorced
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bilo to, kako pozitiven ali negativen je bil v pogovoru vsak od partnerjev.
13:06
was how positive or negative each partner was being in the conversation.
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13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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Pari z zelo nizkim tveganjem
13:13
scored a lot more positive points on Gottman's scale than negative.
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so dobili veliko več pozitivnih točk na Gottmanovi lestvici kot negativnih.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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Medtem ko so se slaba razmerja,
13:20
by which I mean, probably going to get divorced,
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s čimer mislim, da se bosta verjetno ločila,
znašla v spirali negativnosti.
13:23
they found themselves getting into a spiral of negativity.
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13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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Samo z uporabo teh preprostih idej
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
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je Gottman s svojo ekipo uspel predvideti,
13:32
whether a given couple was going to get divorced
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ali se bo določen par ločil
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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z 90-odstotno natančnostjo.
Vendar so šele takrat, ko se je združil z matematikom Jamesom Murrayjem,
13:38
But it wasn't until he teamed up with a mathematician, James Murray,
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13:41
that they really started to understand
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resnično začeli razumeti,
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals and how they occur.
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kaj povzroča te spirale negativnosti in kako se pojavijo.
13:47
And the results that they found,
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Rezultati, ki so jih odkrili,
13:49
I think, are just incredibly impressively simple and interesting.
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so po mojem mnenju neverjetno in impresivno preprosti in zanimivi.
13:53
So these equations predict how the wife or husband is going to respond
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Ti enačbi predvidita odziv žene ali moža,
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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ko bo na vrsti v pogovoru,
kako bosta pozitivna ali negativna.
14:00
how positive or negative they're going to be.
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14:02
And these equations depend on
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Ti enačbi sta odvisni od
razpoloženja osebe, ko je sama,
14:04
the mood of the person when they're on their own,
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14:06
the mood of the person when they're with their partner,
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razpoloženja osebe, ko je s svojim partnerjem,
a najpomembneje, odvisni sta od tega,
14:09
but most importantly, they depend on
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14:10
how much the husband and wife influence one another.
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kako močno mož in žena vplivata drug na drugega.
Mislim, da je pomembno, da na tej točki poudarim,
14:14
Now, I think it's important to point out at this stage,
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14:16
that these exact equations have also been shown
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da se je izkazalo, da sta ti isti enačbi
bili popolnoma sposobni opisati,
14:20
to be perfectly able at describing
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14:22
what happens between two countries in an arms race.
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kaj se zgodi med dvema državama v tekmi oboroževanja.
(smeh)
14:27
(Laughter)
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14:30
So that an arguing couple spiraling into negativity
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To - prepirajoč par v spirali negativnosti
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce
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in visenje na robu prepada ločitve -
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to the beginning of a nuclear war.
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je pravzaprav matematično enakovredno začetku jedrske vojne.
14:40
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
A resnično pomemben termin v tej enačbi
14:43
But the really important term in this equation
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14:45
is the influence that people have on one another,
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je vpliv, ki ga imajo ljudje drug na drugega,
14:47
and in particular, something called "the negativity threshold."
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in še posebej, nekaj, čemur se reče prag negativnosti.
Prag negativnosti
14:51
Now, the negativity threshold,
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14:52
you can think of as how annoying the husband can be
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si lahko predstavljate kot, kako siten je lahko mož,
14:57
before the wife starts to get really pissed off, and vice versa.
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preden žena resnično postane besna in obratno.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages were about compromise and understanding
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Vedno sem mislila, da dobri zakoni temeljijo na kompromisu in razumevanju
15:06
and allowing the person to have the space to be themselves.
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in dopuščanju, da ima oseba prostor, da je, kar je.
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps the most successful relationships
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Tako bi si mislila, da so morda najuspešnejša razmerja
15:12
were ones where there was a really high negativity threshold.
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tista, ki imajo zelo visok prag negativnosti.
15:15
Where couples let things go
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Kjer pari pustijo, da gredo stvari mimo,
15:17
and only brought things up if they really were a big deal.
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in jih privlečejo na dan samo, če so resnično velika stvar.
15:20
But actually, the mathematics and subsequent findings by the team
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V resnici pa so matematika in kasnejša odkritja ekipe
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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pokazala ravno nasprotno.
15:27
The best couples, or the most successful couples,
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Najboljši pari, ali najuspešnejši pari
so tisti, ki imajo zelo nizek prag negativnosti.
15:30
are the ones with a really low negativity threshold.
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15:33
These are the couples that don't let anything go unnoticed
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To so pari, ki ničemur ne dovolijo, da gre mimo neopaženo
15:37
and allow each other some room to complain.
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in si vzajemno dopuščajo nekaj prostora za pritoževanje.
15:40
These are the couples that are continually trying to repair their own relationship,
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To so pari, ki se nenehno trudijo popraviti svoje razmerje,
15:45
that have a much more positive outlook on their marriage.
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ki imajo veliko bolj pozitivno sliko o svojem zakonu.
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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2068
Pari, ki ne pustijo, da gredo stvari mimo
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things end up being a really big deal.
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in pari, ki ne pustijo, da bi nepomembne stvari postale resnično velika stvar.
15:56
Now of course, it takes a bit more than just a low negativity threshold
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Seveda je potrebno nekaj več, kot le nizek prag negativnosti
16:01
and not compromising to have a successful relationship.
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in nesklepanje kompromisov, da bi imeli uspešno razmerje.
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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Ampak mislim, da je zelo zanimivo
16:08
to know that there is really mathematical evidence
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vedeti, da obstaja matematični dokaz,
16:11
to say that you should never let the sun go down on your anger.
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ki pravi, da nikoli ne smemo pustiti, da bi sonce zašlo nad našo jezo.
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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To so torej moji trije nasveti,
16:16
of how maths can help you with love and relationships.
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kako vam lahko matematika pomaga pri ljubezni in odnosih.
16:19
But I hope, that aside from their use as tips,
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A upam, da vam bodo poleg tega, da so nasveti,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight into the power of mathematics.
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dali tudi nekaj uvida v moč matematike.
16:25
Because for me, equations and symbols aren't just a thing.
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Zame namreč enačbe in simboli niso samo stvar.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out about the incredible richness of nature
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So glas, ki govori o neverjetnem bogastvu narave
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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in vznemirljivi preprostosti
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn and warp and evolve all around us,
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v vzorcih, ki se zvijajo in obračajo in raztezajo in razvijajo vse okoli nas,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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od tega, kako deluje svet, do tega, kako se obnašamo.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps, for just a couple of you,
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Zato upam, da vas mogoče vsaj nekaj od vas
16:46
a little bit of insight into the mathematics of love
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malo uvida v matematiko ljubezni
lahko prepriča, da boste imeli malo več ljubezni do matematike.
16:49
can persuade you to have a little bit more love for mathematics.
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16:52
Thank you.
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Hvala.
16:53
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
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Na tem mestu boste našli videoposnetke na YouTubu, ki so uporabni za učenje angleščine. Ogledali si boste lekcije angleščine, ki jih poučujejo vrhunski učitelji z vsega sveta. Z dvoklikom na angleške podnapise, ki so prikazani na vsaki strani z videoposnetki, lahko predvajate videoposnetek od tam. Podnapisi se pomikajo sinhronizirano s predvajanjem videoposnetka. Če imate kakršne koli pripombe ali zahteve, nam pišite prek tega obrazca za stike.

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