The mathematics of love | Hannah Fry

1,212,271 views ・ 2015-02-13

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Zhiting Chen 校对人员: Geoff Chen
00:12
Today I want to talk to you about the mathematics of love.
0
12507
4669
今天我想要和大家谈谈 关于爱情的数学。
我想大家都同意
00:17
Now, I think that we can all agree
1
17200
1629
00:18
that mathematicians are famously excellent at finding love.
2
18853
3309
数学家在寻找真爱上特别在行。
00:22
(Laughter)
3
22479
1403
00:23
But it's not just because of our dashing personalities,
4
23906
2967
但那并不只是因为我们 精力充沛的性格,
00:26
superior conversational skills and excellent pencil cases.
5
26897
4623
超凡的对话技巧, 和极好的笔盒。
也是因为我们真的 花了许多时间精力在数学上,
00:32
It's also because we've actually done an awful lot of work into the maths
6
32083
3743
00:35
of how to find the perfect partner.
7
35850
2476
计算如何找到完美的伴侣。
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper on the subject, which is entitled,
8
38350
3679
现在,在此学科中我最爱的论文,名为
“为什么我没有女友” (笑声)
00:42
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
9
42053
1863
00:43
(Laughter)
10
43940
1407
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate his chances of finding love.
11
45371
3618
Peter Backus 试着 计算他寻得真爱的机会。
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
12
49013
2229
现在,Peter 不是一个非常贪心的人。
00:51
Of all of the available women in the UK,
13
51266
2252
在英国所有适宜的女性对象中,
00:53
all Peter's looking for is somebody who lives near him,
14
53542
3495
Peter 所看的, 就只是那个住在他附近的对象,
某个处于适宜的年龄阶段,
00:57
somebody in the right age range,
15
57061
1806
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
16
58891
2922
某个拥有大学文凭,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
17
61837
1982
某个他很有可能相处地不错的对象,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
18
63843
1943
某个有魅力的女子,
01:05
somebody who's likely to find him attractive.
19
65810
2306
以及某个认为他也富有魅力的对象。
01:08
(Laughter)
20
68140
3054
(笑声)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
21
71218
4790
结果他估计在全英国 大概有 26 位此类女性。
01:16
(Laughter)
22
76032
1179
01:17
It's not looking very good, is it Peter?
23
77235
2033
这看来很不妙,不是吗,Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
24
79292
1954
我们好好思考一下这件事,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer than the best estimates
25
81270
3280
在无数聪明外星生命形式存在的情况下,
01:24
of how many intelligent extraterrestrial life forms there are.
26
84574
3701
那是少于 400 倍数的估计呀。
01:28
And it also gives Peter a 1 in 285,000 chance
27
88299
5294
那也给了 Peter 一个
在某晚遇见一个特别的女子
01:33
of bumping into any one of these special ladies
28
93617
2261
28 万 5 千之 1 的机会。
01:35
on a given night out.
29
95902
1539
01:37
I'd like to think that's why mathematicians
30
97465
2002
我宁愿想着那就是为什么数学家
01:39
don't really bother going on nights out anymore.
31
99491
2458
不再怎么想晚上出去约会了。
重点是,我个人其实并不同意
01:43
The thing is that I personally don't subscribe
32
103109
2256
这种悲观的看法。
01:45
to such a pessimistic view.
33
105389
1656
01:47
Because I know, just as well as all of you do,
34
107069
2589
因为我知道,如同你们所有所知道的,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
35
109682
2372
爱情并不是这样发生的。
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered and rational and easily predictable.
36
112078
4850
人类的情感不是那样地秩序井然、 干净利落、逻辑清晰,以及容易预测。
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
37
117396
2221
但我也知道那并不意谓着
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something that it can offer us,
38
119641
3280
数学无法提供帮助,
02:02
because, love, as with most of life, is full of patterns
39
122945
3746
因为爱情,如同生命中多数的事物一般, 充斥着许多规律,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately, all about the study of patterns.
40
126715
4426
而数学,最终,就是那讲求规律的学说。
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather to the fluctuations in the stock market,
41
131165
4344
从预测天候,到 预测股票市场的开高走低,
02:15
to the movement of the planets or the growth of cities.
42
135533
3031
到星球的运转,或都市的发展。
02:18
And if we're being honest, none of those things
43
138588
2290
如果我们对自己诚实的话, 上述那些东西,没有一个是
02:20
are exactly neatly ordered and easily predictable, either.
44
140902
3162
井然有序以及容易预测的。
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics is so powerful that it has the potential
45
144966
5178
因为我相信,数学的力量非常强大, 以至于它让我们得以以新方法
重新看待任何事物。
02:30
to offer us a new way of looking at almost anything.
46
150168
3321
02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
47
153513
2820
就算是和爱情一般神秘的东西也是。
02:36
And so, to try to persuade you
48
156979
1672
为了试着说服你们
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent and relevant mathematics is,
49
158675
4693
数学的神妙用处,
02:43
I want to give you my top three mathematically verifiable tips for love.
50
163392
6683
我想要给大家三个最重要的 在数学上可以验证的爱情秘诀。
02:50
(Laughter)
51
170651
1765
好,首先最重要的秘技一:
02:52
OK, so Top Tip #1:
52
172440
1640
如何赢得线上交友的机会。
02:54
How to win at online dating.
53
174104
2117
02:58
So my favorite online dating website is OkCupid,
54
178567
3371
我最爱的线上交友网站是 OkCupid (网站名:好吧,丘比特),
03:01
not least because it was started by a group of mathematicians.
55
181962
3588
这并不仅仅因为这网站 是由一群数学家所架设的。
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
56
185574
1745
因为他们是数学家,
03:07
they have been collecting data
57
187343
1477
他们已经搜集了
03:08
on everybody who uses their site for almost a decade.
58
188844
3496
近乎这十年来所有 他们网站使用者的资料。
他们试着寻找
03:12
And they've been trying to search for patterns
59
192364
2150
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
60
194538
1863
我们在线上
03:16
and the way that we interact with each other
61
196425
2059
谈论自己的方式的模式,
以及我们和他人互动的模式。
03:18
on an online dating website.
62
198508
1344
03:19
And they've come up with some seriously interesting findings.
63
199876
2925
他们发现了一些重要的有趣结果。
03:22
But my particular favorite
64
202825
1598
但我特别喜欢的结果之一是
03:24
is that it turns out that on an online dating website,
65
204447
3356
在线上交友网站上
03:27
how attractive you are does not dictate how popular you are,
66
207827
5660
你的魅力程度并无法 预测你的受欢迎程度,
03:33
and actually, having people think that you're ugly
67
213511
3856
事实上,让人们觉得你很丑
03:37
can work to your advantage.
68
217391
1895
可以让你拥有优势。
03:39
(Laughter)
69
219469
1150
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
70
220643
1670
让我向各位展示这是怎么一回事。
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary section of OkCupid,
71
222337
4379
在 OkCupid 的一个志愿栏目中,
03:46
you are allowed to rate how attractive you think people are
72
226740
2801
你可以评价人们的魅力值,
03:49
on a scale between one and five.
73
229565
2285
从 1 到 5 。
03:51
Now, if we compare this score, the average score,
74
231874
2981
现在,如果我们比较这个分数, 平均分数,
03:54
to how many messages a selection of people receive,
75
234879
3141
有多少人收到信息,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
76
238044
1523
你就可以开始理解
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity on an online dating website.
77
239591
4408
在一个线上约会网站上 魅力指数与受欢迎程度有关。
这是 OkCupid 得到的图表。
04:04
This is the graph the OkCupid guys have come up with.
78
244023
3342
04:07
And the important thing to notice is that it's not totally true
79
247389
2994
一件重要的值得注意的事是
04:10
that the more attractive you are, the more messages you get.
80
250407
2825
并不是越有魅力的人, 收到的信息越多。
04:13
But the question arises then of what is it about people up here
81
253256
4255
问题是,为什么上面的这些人
比下面这些人要受欢迎得多,
04:17
who are so much more popular than people down here,
82
257535
3863
04:21
even though they have the same score of attractiveness?
83
261422
3096
即便他们都有相同的魅力值?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just straightforward looks that are important.
84
264542
4133
原因是,并不是直观的外貌是重要的。
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their findings with an example.
85
268699
2807
让我来谈谈他们的发现, 以一个案例说明。
04:31
So if you take someone like Portia de Rossi, for example,
86
271530
3918
如果你拿 Portia de Rossi 为例,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi is a very beautiful woman.
87
275472
4480
每个人都同意 Portia de Rossi 是个非常美丽的女人,
04:39
Nobody thinks that she's ugly, but she's not a supermodel, either.
88
279976
3718
没有人觉得她丑,但她也不是超模。
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
89
283718
4591
如果你拿某个人,比如 Sarah Jessica Parker (译者注:欲望都市女主角)来和她比较
04:48
now, a lot of people, myself included, I should say,
90
288333
3682
许多人,包括我自己,我应该会说,
Sarah Jessica Parker 魅力极为出众,
04:52
think that Sarah Jessica Parker is seriously fabulous
91
292039
4257
04:56
and possibly one of the most beautiful creatures
92
296320
2646
有可能是地表上
04:58
to have ever have walked on the face of the Earth.
93
298990
2390
最美丽的物种之一。
05:01
But some other people, i.e., most of the Internet ...
94
301404
4765
但许多其他人,比如,大多数的网友
05:06
(Laughter)
95
306193
2070
似乎都认为她看起来像马。(笑声)
05:08
seem to think that she looks a bit like a horse.
96
308287
2386
05:10
(Laughter)
97
310697
2789
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people how attractive they thought
98
313510
4093
如果你问人们他们觉得自己有多美,
05:17
Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were,
99
317627
1908
Sarah Jessica Parker 或 Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give them a score between one and five
100
319559
2908
你要他们给自己打分,从 1 到 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out to have roughly the same score.
101
322491
3020
我猜他们也会大约给一个 和大家都差不多的数字。
05:25
But the way that people would vote would be very different.
102
325535
2764
但是人们投票的方式各自不同。
因此 Portia 的分数会聚集在 4 分左右,
05:28
So Portia's scores would all be clustered around the four
103
328323
2702
因为所有人都同意,她非常美丽,
05:31
because everybody agrees that she's very beautiful,
104
331049
2431
然而人们对 Sarah Jessica Parker 却有截然不同的意见。
05:33
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker completely divides opinion.
105
333504
2714
她的分差悬殊很大。
05:36
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
106
336242
1976
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
107
338242
2349
然而,事实上,就是那分差别具意义,
05:40
It's this spread that makes you more popular
108
340615
2226
那差异让你
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
109
342865
2176
在交友网站上受欢迎。
05:45
So what that means then
110
345065
1188
所以那意味着
05:46
is that if some people think that you're attractive,
111
346277
2605
如果有些人认为你别具魅力,
05:48
you're actually better off
112
348906
1861
你最好有其他人认为
05:50
having some other people think that you're a massive minger.
113
350791
3947
你很丑。
05:55
That's much better than everybody just thinking
114
355935
2214
那远优于所有人认为
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
115
358173
2063
你是邻家的可爱女孩。
当你们开始思考一下 这些寄送信息的人的话,
06:00
Now, I think this begins to make a bit more sense
116
360260
2325
06:02
when you think in terms of the people who are sending these messages.
117
362609
3270
这开始变得合理些了。
06:05
So let's say that you think somebody's attractive,
118
365903
2358
这么说吧,假设你认为那个人很美,
但你同时猜想其他人并不会 和你有同样的审美观。
06:08
but you suspect that other people won't necessarily be that interested.
119
368285
3965
那就意味着,你的竞争对手略少,
06:12
That means there's less competition for you
120
372274
2245
06:14
and it's an extra incentive for you to get in touch.
121
374543
2782
这就给你增加了额外的动机 去与他/她认识。
与之相对的情况是 你认为某人很有吸引力,
06:17
Whereas compare that to if you think somebody is attractive
122
377349
2785
但你猜想所有其他的人 都认为那人很有吸引力,
06:20
but you suspect that everybody is going to think they're attractive.
123
380158
3217
06:23
Well, why would you bother humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
124
383399
3205
嗯,让我们面对事实 为什么要自取其辱呢?
这就是最有趣的部分。
06:27
But here's where the really interesting part comes.
125
387077
2393
因为当人们去选择他们 在交友网站上使用的照片时,
06:29
Because when people choose the pictures that they use on an online dating website,
126
389494
4180
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
127
393698
2176
他们总是试图最小化
06:35
that they think some people will find unattractive.
128
395898
3238
其他人认为不吸引人之处的可能性。
06:39
The classic example is people who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
129
399160
4031
最经典的例子是, 那些体重略重的人
06:43
deliberately choosing a very cropped photo,
130
403215
2442
故意选择一个 剪裁非常不正的照片,
06:45
(Laughter)
131
405681
1351
例如那些秃顶的男士,
06:47
or bald men, for example,
132
407056
1760
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures where they're wearing hats.
133
408840
2948
故意去选择他们带着帽子的照片。
06:51
But actually this is the opposite of what you should do
134
411812
2590
但你的行为是与你的目标相悖的,
06:54
if you want to be successful.
135
414426
1390
如果你想要在网上交友成功。
06:55
You should really, instead,
136
415840
1334
你真的应该,去选择 让你看起来与众不同的照片,
06:57
play up to whatever it is that makes you different,
137
417198
3158
07:00
even if you think that some people will find it unattractive.
138
420380
4151
即便你认为某些人会对此失去兴趣。
07:04
Because the people who fancy you are just going to fancy you anyway,
139
424555
3211
因为那些喜欢你的人 无论如何都会去喜欢你,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't, well, they only play up to your advantage.
140
427790
4556
而那些不重要的路人 只是渲染你的优势。
07:12
OK, Top Tip #2: How to pick the perfect partner.
141
432370
2553
好了,最高秘诀 2 号: 如何选择完美的伴侣。
07:14
So let's imagine then that you're a roaring success
142
434947
2653
让我们想象你的约会
07:17
on the dating scene.
143
437624
1541
精彩成功。
07:19
But the question arises of how do you then convert that success
144
439189
4535
但问题来了 你如何将那成功的约会
07:23
into longer-term happiness,
145
443748
2551
转变成长期的快乐,尤其是,
07:26
and in particular, how do you decide when is the right time to settle down?
146
446323
5090
你要如何选择 在哪个时刻安定下来?
07:31
Now generally, it's not advisable to just cash in
147
451437
2808
一般来说, 并不建议人们立刻
07:34
and marry the first person who comes along and shows you any interest at all.
148
454269
4123
与第一个出现
对你表达好感的人结婚。
07:38
But, equally, you don't really want to leave it too long
149
458416
3121
但是,一般来说,如果你想要 最大化你未来数十年幸福婚姻的机会,
07:41
if you want to maximize your chance of long-term happiness.
150
461561
2770
你也不愿等待太久。
07:44
As my favorite author, Jane Austen, puts it,
151
464355
3464
我最喜欢的作家简·奥斯汀这样说,
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
152
467843
2194
“一个未婚的 27 岁女子
07:50
can never hope to feel or inspire affection again."
153
470061
3432
就别指望再能感受或激发爱情了。”
07:53
(Laughter)
154
473517
2665
(笑声)
这太严重了,简。 你对爱了解多少呢?
07:56
Thanks a lot, Jane.
155
476206
1182
07:57
What do you know about love?
156
477412
1413
07:58
(Laughter)
157
478849
1083
07:59
So the question is then,
158
479956
1909
那么问题来了,
08:01
how do you know when is the right time to settle down,
159
481889
2589
你怎么知道哪个时刻 是该要安定下来的时刻,
毕竟生命中你有很多可能的对象?
08:04
given all the people that you can date in your lifetime?
160
484502
2628
幸好,我们可以运用一点儿数学
08:07
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit of mathematics that we can use
161
487154
3450
08:10
to help us out here, called optimal stopping theory.
162
490628
2544
来帮助我们计算解决这个问题, 名叫 “最优停止理论”。
那么让我们来想象一下,
08:13
So let's imagine, then,
163
493196
1981
你在 15 岁的时候开始交往,
08:15
that you start dating when you're 15
164
495201
2602
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married by the time that you're 35.
165
497827
3769
理想状态下,你在 35 岁的时候会结婚。
08:21
And there's a number of people
166
501620
1442
你的人生中
有很多潜在的约会对象,
08:23
that you could potentially date across your lifetime,
167
503086
2497
08:25
and they'll be at varying levels of goodness.
168
505607
2128
他们都有各自的优点。
08:27
Now the rules are that once you cash in and get married,
169
507759
2665
规则是,你一旦跳进婚姻,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see what you could have had,
170
510448
2430
你就不能继续前进寻找 你可能可以有的对象,
08:32
and equally, you can't go back and change your mind.
171
512902
2533
你也不能回头来改变你的主意。
08:35
In my experience at least,
172
515459
1599
我个人的经验看来,
08:37
I find that typically people don't much like being recalled
173
517082
2798
一般人们不希望
08:39
years after being passed up for somebody else, or that's just me.
174
519904
5218
在被拒绝又过了多年后被找回来, 也许只有我这样想。
08:45
So the math says then that what you should do
175
525146
3193
数学告诉我们
08:48
in the first 37 percent of your dating window,
176
528363
3171
你应该拒绝认为会和 在你人生约会周期
08:51
you should just reject everybody as serious marriage potential.
177
531558
3757
前 37% 时段出现的任何人 有严肃认真的婚姻关系。
08:55
(Laughter)
178
535339
2150
(笑声)
08:57
And then, you should pick the next person that comes along
179
537513
3624
接着,你要选择下一个人,
09:01
that is better than everybody that you've seen before.
180
541161
2969
那个比你以前约会对象都好的人。
09:04
So here's the example.
181
544154
1421
这里举个例子。
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be mathematically proven, in fact,
182
545599
2867
如果你这么做,从数学证明来看 可以认为,事实上
09:08
that this is the best possible way
183
548490
2461
这可能是最好的选择
09:10
of maximizing your chances of finding the perfect partner.
184
550975
4329
来最大化你找到完美伴侣的机会。
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that this method does come with some risks.
185
555328
4581
现在不幸的是,我必须告诉你 这个方法也是有风险的。
09:20
For instance, imagine if your perfect partner appeared
186
560604
4809
比如,想象一下,假设你的完美伴侣
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
187
565437
2682
出现在你约会历程的前 37%
09:28
Now, unfortunately, you'd have to reject them.
188
568143
2772
那就很不幸了, 你会拒绝他们。
09:30
(Laughter)
189
570939
2689
(笑声)
如果你相信数学,
09:34
Now, if you're following the maths,
190
574129
2115
恐怕你不会再找到
09:36
I'm afraid no one else comes along
191
576268
1633
09:37
that's better than anyone you've seen before,
192
577925
2271
比你以往见过更好的对象,
你就会持续拒绝每个人 然后孤独终老。
09:40
so you have to go on rejecting everyone and die alone.
193
580220
3849
09:44
(Laughter)
194
584093
1999
(笑声)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats ...
195
586560
1516
可能会被猫咪包围 一点点啃食你的遗骸。
09:48
(Laughter)
196
588100
1619
09:49
nibbling at your remains.
197
589838
1567
09:51
OK, another risk is, let's imagine, instead,
198
591429
3969
好,另一个风险是, 让我们想象,相反的,
09:55
that the first people that you dated in your first 37 percent
199
595422
3116
你约会历程前 37% 里第一个对象
09:58
are just incredibly dull, boring, terrible people.
200
598562
3921
极度愚蠢,无聊又很糟糕。
10:02
That's OK, because you're in your rejection phase,
201
602839
2382
没事,因为你还在拒绝对象的阶段,
10:05
so that's fine, you can reject them.
202
605245
1715
没问题, 你可以拒绝他们。
10:06
But then imagine the next person to come along
203
606984
3373
但想象一下,下一个出现的人
10:10
is just marginally less boring, dull and terrible ...
204
610381
3330
只是没那么无聊,愚蠢
10:13
(Laughter)
205
613735
1099
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
206
614858
1898
比你以前的对象都略好那么一点儿。
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths, I'm afraid you have to marry them ...
207
616780
3595
如果你遵循数学, 恐怕你要和他们结婚
10:20
(Laughter)
208
620399
1055
然后沉浸在一段, 实话说,次优的关系中。
10:21
and end up in a relationship which is, frankly, suboptimal.
209
621478
3143
10:24
Sorry about that.
210
624645
1153
很抱歉。
10:25
But I do think that there's an opportunity here for Hallmark to cash in on
211
625822
3500
但我认为,机会还是有的
贺曼公司迎合市场需求
10:29
and really cater for this market.
212
629346
1582
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
213
630952
1583
出售这样的情人节贺卡。 (笑声)
10:32
(Laughter)
214
632559
1156
“我亲爱的丈夫,你没有
10:33
"My darling husband, you are marginally less terrible
215
633739
3002
10:36
than the first 37 percent of people I dated."
216
636765
2154
我约会历程中前 37% 的男士 那么糟糕。”
10:38
(Laughter)
217
638943
1630
这比一般的贺卡浪漫很多。
10:40
It's actually more romantic than I normally manage.
218
640597
2838
10:43
(Laughter)
219
643745
1471
10:45
OK, so this method doesn't give you a 100 percent success rate,
220
645240
4661
这个数学方法不能保证 100% 的成功率,
10:49
but there's no other possible strategy that can do any better.
221
649925
3435
但也没有更好的策略了。
10:53
And actually, in the wild, there are certain types of fish
222
653384
3430
事实上,在动物界, 某个特定种类的鱼
遵循使用这样的策略。
10:56
which follow and employ this exact strategy.
223
656838
2817
10:59
So they reject every possible suitor that turns up
224
659679
2753
在交配期,它们拒绝
11:02
in the first 37 percent of the mating season,
225
662456
2689
出现在前 37% 的每个求婚者,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish that comes along after that window
226
665169
3751
接着它们选择 37% 后出现的下一个
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
227
668944
2155
比所见过的鱼
11:11
than all of the fish that they've seen before.
228
671123
2578
体型更加庞大,更加结实的鱼。
11:13
I also think that subconsciously, humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
229
673725
4877
我想作为人类 我们潜意识里也在做同样的选择。
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time to play the field,
230
678626
2845
我们给自己更多时间寻找,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace or whatever when we're young.
231
681495
3596
在我们年轻的时候 感受婚恋市场。
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously at potential marriage candidates
232
685115
4590
我们只有在 20 岁年龄段的中后期
11:29
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
233
689729
2027
才会很真寻找潜在的结婚对象。
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof, if ever it were needed,
234
691780
3210
我想这证明了, 即使不确定是否需要,
每个人的大脑 都预配了点儿数学能力。
11:35
that everybody's brains are prewired to be just a little bit mathematical.
235
695014
4208
11:39
OK, so that was Top Tip #2.
236
699450
2003
好,上述就是最高秘诀 2 号。
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
237
701477
3229
现在,最高秘诀 3 号:如何避免离婚。
好的,让我们想象一下 你找到了你的完美对象
11:45
OK, so let's imagine then that you picked your perfect partner
238
705351
2924
你和他/她进入了一生的婚姻关系。
11:48
and you're settling into a lifelong relationship with them.
239
708299
4229
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody would ideally like to avoid divorce,
240
712552
3986
我假设每个人都不希望离婚,
11:56
apart from, I don't know, Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
241
716562
4246
当然,也许除了 Piers Morgan 的太太?
12:00
(Laughter)
242
720832
1150
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
243
722185
2420
可是,现代婚姻一个悲伤的事实
12:04
that one in two marriages in the States ends in divorce,
244
724629
3260
就是美国离婚率高达 50%,
12:07
with the rest of the world not being far behind.
245
727913
3792
世界其他国家也离这个数据不远。
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
246
731729
1834
当然,你可以认为
12:13
for thinking that the arguments that precede a marital breakup
247
733587
3733
婚姻破裂的原因
12:17
are not an ideal candidate for mathematical investigation.
248
737344
3790
不是数学运算理想的数据源。
一方面来说,很难了解到
12:21
For one thing, it's very hard to know
249
741359
1782
你该去测量什么 或者是你该去量化什么。
12:23
what you should be measuring or what you should be quantifying.
250
743165
3077
但这并没有阻止心理学家 John Gottman 做这样的研究。
12:26
But this didn't stop a psychologist, John Gottman, who did exactly that.
251
746266
6183
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples having a conversation
252
752473
5237
Gottman 观察了数百对夫妇的对谈
12:37
and recorded, well, everything you can think of.
253
757734
2306
尽可能录下来所有信息。
12:40
So he recorded what was said in the conversation,
254
760064
2367
记录了对话的内容,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
255
762455
2293
皮肤的传导性,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
256
764772
2063
面部表情,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
257
766859
1991
心跳,血压,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether or not the wife was actually always right,
258
768874
6236
基本上除了“太太永远是对的” 以外的所有东西,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
259
775134
3191
当然,太太永远是对的。
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
260
778349
2649
但是,Gottman 和他的团队发现
13:01
was that one of the most important predictors
261
781022
3015
最能够准确预测
这对夫妻是否未来会离婚的
13:04
for whether or not a couple is going to get divorced
262
784061
2482
是双方在对话过程中 积极还是消极。
13:06
was how positive or negative each partner was being in the conversation.
263
786567
4623
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
264
791214
2330
那些离婚风险很低的夫妻
13:13
scored a lot more positive points on Gottman's scale than negative.
265
793568
4269
在 Gottman 的测试中得到了 更多正面而不是负面的分数。
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
266
797861
2541
相反的,在糟糕的关系中,
13:20
by which I mean, probably going to get divorced,
267
800426
2747
我是指那些可能离婚的夫妻,
他们发现自己沉浸在消极的漩涡中。
13:23
they found themselves getting into a spiral of negativity.
268
803197
4357
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
269
807578
2260
就用这些非常简单的方法,
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
270
809862
2471
Gottman 和他的团队能够准确预测
13:32
whether a given couple was going to get divorced
271
812357
2722
一对夫妻是否会离婚,
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
272
815103
2185
准确率高达 90%
但是,直到他与 数学家 James Murray 联手,
13:38
But it wasn't until he teamed up with a mathematician, James Murray,
273
818005
3289
13:41
that they really started to understand
274
821318
1891
他们才真正找出
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals and how they occur.
275
823233
4494
那些消极漩涡是 如何产生,为什么产生的。
13:47
And the results that they found,
276
827751
1533
结果是他们发现
13:49
I think, are just incredibly impressively simple and interesting.
277
829308
4649
我认为不可思议太令人惊叹 的简单而有趣。
13:53
So these equations predict how the wife or husband is going to respond
278
833981
4563
这些算式,他们用来预测 妻子或是丈夫是如何去回应
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
279
838568
1888
他们下一段对话,
他们的积极或消极程度是多少。
14:00
how positive or negative they're going to be.
280
840480
2133
14:02
And these equations depend on
281
842637
1385
这些算式,取决于
当他们独处时各自的情绪,
14:04
the mood of the person when they're on their own,
282
844046
2306
14:06
the mood of the person when they're with their partner,
283
846376
2614
当他们和伴侣在一起时候的情绪,
但最重要的是,
14:09
but most importantly, they depend on
284
849014
1725
14:10
how much the husband and wife influence one another.
285
850763
3032
取决于丈夫和妻子相互间的影响。
在这个阶段我认为最重要的是,
14:14
Now, I think it's important to point out at this stage,
286
854115
2607
14:16
that these exact equations have also been shown
287
856746
3509
这个一模一样的算式
同时也可以完美预测
14:20
to be perfectly able at describing
288
860279
2195
14:22
what happens between two countries in an arms race.
289
862498
3734
两个国家是否会开战。
(笑声)
14:27
(Laughter)
290
867010
3088
14:30
So that an arguing couple spiraling into negativity
291
870300
3581
因此一对沉浸于消极情绪
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce
292
873905
1905
在离婚边缘摇摆的夫妻--
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to the beginning of a nuclear war.
293
875834
4249
实际在数学上等同于 即将开始一场核战争。
14:40
(Laughter)
294
880107
2890
(笑声)
事实上,这个算式最重要的部分
14:43
But the really important term in this equation
295
883021
2313
14:45
is the influence that people have on one another,
296
885358
2495
是人们给对方带来的影响,
14:47
and in particular, something called "the negativity threshold."
297
887877
3257
尤其是消极阈值。
消极阈值,
14:51
Now, the negativity threshold,
298
891158
1732
14:52
you can think of as how annoying the husband can be
299
892914
4627
你可以认为它指的是 丈夫讨厌到什么程度
14:57
before the wife starts to get really pissed off, and vice versa.
300
897565
4263
就能惹到妻子真的暴怒, 或者是相反。
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages were about compromise and understanding
301
901852
4532
我一直认为美好的婚姻 是基于妥协和理解
15:06
and allowing the person to have the space to be themselves.
302
906408
2762
并且给对方留足独处空间。
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps the most successful relationships
303
909194
3353
我会想,最成功的关系是
15:12
were ones where there was a really high negativity threshold.
304
912571
3280
当那里有非常高的消极阈值时
15:15
Where couples let things go
305
915875
1793
夫妻共同选择不去理会这些问题。
15:17
and only brought things up if they really were a big deal.
306
917692
2771
只有在非常严重的时候 才会严肃讨论。
15:20
But actually, the mathematics and subsequent findings by the team
307
920487
4251
事实上,团队得出的 数学运算结果和后续研究成果显示
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
308
924762
2532
完全相反的结果。
15:27
The best couples, or the most successful couples,
309
927799
2309
最完美的夫妻, 最成功的夫妻,
有着很低的消极阈值。
15:30
are the ones with a really low negativity threshold.
310
930132
3363
15:33
These are the couples that don't let anything go unnoticed
311
933519
3634
这些夫妻不会忽视矛盾
15:37
and allow each other some room to complain.
312
937177
3198
给对方抱怨的空间。
15:40
These are the couples that are continually trying to repair their own relationship,
313
940399
5234
这些夫妻持续努力 修复他们的关系,
15:45
that have a much more positive outlook on their marriage.
314
945657
2743
他们对自己的婚姻 有着非常积极的预期。
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
315
948424
2068
他们不会忽略矛盾
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things end up being a really big deal.
316
950516
4880
他们不会让一件件琐碎的小事 堆积成为巨大的问题。
15:56
Now of course, it takes a bit more than just a low negativity threshold
317
956426
5258
当然,这不仅仅是 一个低消极阈值
16:01
and not compromising to have a successful relationship.
318
961708
4368
和对成功关系毫不妥协的态度。
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
319
966100
2526
但我认为,很有趣的是
16:08
to know that there is really mathematical evidence
320
968650
2354
真的有数学证据
16:11
to say that you should never let the sun go down on your anger.
321
971028
3428
来证明你永远不该长时间 积攒愤怒,太阳要下山了。 (译者注:这句话出自圣经)
16:14
So those are my top three tips
322
974480
1684
上述就是我的三条最高秘诀,
16:16
of how maths can help you with love and relationships.
323
976188
3171
有关数学如何让你有 更美好的爱情和关系。
16:19
But I hope, that aside from their use as tips,
324
979383
2395
我希望,除了作为爱情秘诀,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight into the power of mathematics.
325
981802
4102
它们也展示了数学的力量。
16:25
Because for me, equations and symbols aren't just a thing.
326
985928
4341
对我来说,算式和符号 不仅仅是一样东西。
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out about the incredible richness of nature
327
990684
4411
它们表达出 自然令人赞叹的丰富性
16:35
and the startling simplicity
328
995119
1786
以及简化
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn and warp and evolve all around us,
329
996929
4813
那些我们身边 扭曲,旋转,包围,进化的事物,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
330
1001766
2580
从世界是如何运作的, 到人类行为举止。
16:44
So I hope that perhaps, for just a couple of you,
331
1004370
2310
我希望,也许你们中的一部分人
16:46
a little bit of insight into the mathematics of love
332
1006704
2485
能够了解一些 爱的数学运算,
能够让你爱数学稍微多一点。
16:49
can persuade you to have a little bit more love for mathematics.
333
1009213
3297
16:52
Thank you.
334
1012534
1199
谢谢。
16:53
(Applause)
335
1013757
7000
(鼓掌)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7