Phil Plait: How to defend Earth from asteroids

148,834 views ・ 2011-11-21

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Djuro Vorkapic Lektor: Mateja Nenadovic
00:16
I want to talk to you about something
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Hteo bih da vam pričam o nečemu
00:18
kind of big.
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prilično važnom.
00:21
We'll start here.
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Počnimo odavde.
00:24
Sixty-five million years ago --
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Pre 65 miliona godina
00:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:27
the dinosaurs had a bad day.
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dinosaurusi su imali loš dan.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:33
A chunk of rock six miles across,
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Kamenčina prečnika deset kilometara
00:36
moving something like 50 times the speed of a rifle bullet,
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koja se kretala oko 50 puta brže od brzine metka,
00:40
slammed into the Earth.
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tresnula je u Zemlju.
00:42
It released its energy all at once,
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U jedom trenutku je oslobodila svu svoju energiju,
00:44
and it was an explosion that was mind-numbing.
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bila je to neverovatna eksplozija.
00:48
If you took every nuclear weapon ever built
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Ako uzmete kompletno nuklearno naoružanje napravljeno
00:51
at the height of the Cold War,
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na vrhuncu Hladnog rata,
00:52
lumped them together,
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sakupljeno zajedno i aktivirano u istom trenutku,
00:54
and blew them up at the same time,
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00:56
that would be one one-millionth of the energy released at that moment.
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to bi bio jedan milioniti deo
energije koja je tada bila oslobođena.
01:02
The dinosaurs had a really bad day.
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Bio je to izuzetno loš dan za dinosauruse.
01:05
OK?
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01:06
Now, a six-mile-wide rock is very large.
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Deset kilometara širok kamen je veoma veliki.
01:09
We all live here in Boulder.
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Svi mi živimo ovde u Bolderu.
01:10
If you look out your window and see Longs Peak --
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Ukoliko pogledate kroz prozor videćete
planinu Longs Pik, verovatno je prepoznajete.
01:13
you're probably familiar with it --
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01:14
now, scoop up Longs Peak and put it out in space.
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Sad, iskopajmo Longs Pik i izdvojmo je u kosmos.
01:17
Take ... Meeker, Mt. Meeker.
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Uzmimo Miker, planinu Miker.
01:20
Lump that in there, and put that in space as well.
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Dodajmo je tamo i stavimo i nju u kosmos,
01:23
And Mt. Everest. And K2.
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i Mont Everest, i K2,
01:26
And the Indian peaks.
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I indijske vrhove.
Sada tek počinjete da dobijate predstavu
01:28
Then you're starting to get an idea of how much rock we're talking about, OK?
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o koliko kamenja pričamo, razumete?
01:31
We know it was that big
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Znamo da je bio toliko veliki
01:33
because of the impact it had and the crater it left.
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zbog siline udara i kratera koji je ostavio.
01:35
It hit in what we now know as Yucatan, the Gulf of Mexico.
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Udario je u ono što mi poznajemo kao Jukatan,
u Meksičkom zalivu.
01:39
You can see here, there's the Yucatan Peninsula,
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Ovde možete videti, tamo je poluostrvo Jukatan,
01:42
if you recognize Cozumel off the east coast there.
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ukoliko prepoznajete Konzumel tamo pored istočne obale.
01:44
Here is how big of a crater was left.
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Ovoliko je bio veliki krater.
01:47
It was huge.
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Bio je ogroman.
01:48
To give you a sense of the scale ... there you go.
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Da biste dobili osećaj veličine, u redu,
01:51
The scale here is 50 miles on top, a hundred kilometers on the bottom.
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osamdeset kilometara na vrhu, stotinu kilometara pri dnu.
01:55
This thing was 300 kilometers across -- 200 miles --
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Ovo je bilo 300 kilometara u prečniku - 200 milja -
01:58
an enormous crater that excavated out vast amounts of earth
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neverovatan krater koji je izbacio ogromnu količinu zemlje
02:02
that splashed around the globe and set fires all over the planet,
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koja se rasprskala unaokolo planete,
a zatim zapalio požare po celoj planeti,
02:06
threw up enough dust to block out the sun.
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izbacio dovoljno prašine da zamrači Sunce.
02:09
It wiped out 75 percent of all species on Earth.
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Uništio je 75 procenata svih vrsta na Zemlji.
02:13
Now, not all asteroids are that big.
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Ali nisu svi asteroidi toliko veliki.
02:16
Some of them are smaller.
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Neki su manji.
02:18
Here is one that came in
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Ovo je jedan koji je prošao
02:21
over the United States in October of 1992.
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preko Sjedinjenih Država
oktobra 1992.
02:25
It came in on a Friday night.
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Pojavio se jednog petka uveče.
02:27
Why is that important?
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Zašto je to važno?
02:28
Because back then, video cameras were just starting to become popular,
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Zato što su tada video kamere
tek postajale popularne
02:32
and parents would bring them to their kids' football games
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i ljudi bi ih poneli, roditelji bi ih poneli,
na utakmice svoje dece da bi ih snimili dok igraju fudbal.
02:36
to film their kids playing football.
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02:38
And since this came in on a Friday,
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I budući da se pojavio u petak,
02:40
they were able to get this great footage of this thing breaking up
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bili su u prilici da snime
kako se razlamao dok je preletao
02:44
as it came in over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey
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preko zapadne Virdžinije, Merilenda, Pensilvanije
02:47
until it did that
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i Nju Džersija sve dok nije ovo učinio
02:48
to a car in New York.
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automobilu u Njujorku.
02:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:52
Now, this is not a 200-mile-wide crater,
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Svakako, ovo nije 320 kilometara širok krater,
02:55
but then again, you can see the rock, which is sitting right here,
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ali ipak možete videti kamen
koji stoji pored,
otprilike veličine fudbalske lopte,
02:59
about the size of a football,
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03:00
that hit that car and did that damage.
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koji je pogodio onaj automobil i pričinio štetu.
03:02
Now, this thing was probably about the size of a school bus
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Ovo je verovatno bilo veličine
školskog autobusa kada se pojavilo.
03:05
when it first came in.
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03:06
It broke up through atmospheric pressure,
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Razlomilo se usled atmosferskog pritiska,
03:08
it crumbled, and then the pieces fell apart
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razmrvilo i raspalo na komadiće i učinilo neku štetu.
03:11
and did some damage.
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03:12
Now, you wouldn't want that falling on your foot or your head,
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Svakako, ne biste voleli da vam je pao na nogu
ili glavu, jer bi vas ozbiljno povredilo.
03:16
because it would do that to it.
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03:17
That would be bad.
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A, to bi bilo loše.
03:19
But it won't wipe out, you know, all life on Earth, so that's fine.
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Na sreću ne bi uništilo celokupni život na Zemlji,
tako da je u redu.
03:23
But it turns out, you don't need something six miles across
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Ali ipak, nije potrebno nešto prečnika deset kilometara
03:26
to do a lot of damage.
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da bi učinilo mnogo štete.
03:28
There is a median point between tiny rock and gigantic rock,
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Postoji srednja veličina, između kamenčića
i ogromnih stena,
03:31
and in fact, if any of you have ever been to near Winslow, Arizona,
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i zapravo, ako je neko od vas ikada posetio Vinslou u Arizoni,
03:35
there is a crater in the desert there that is so iconic
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tamo je krater u pustinji koji je toliko poznat
03:39
that it is actually called "Meteor Crater."
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da je nazvan Meteor krater.
03:41
To give you a sense of scale, this is about a mile wide.
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Da biste dobili osećaj veličine, on je širok oko jedan ipo kilometar.
03:44
If you look up at the top, that's a parking lot,
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Ukoliko pogledate na vrh, tamo je parking,
03:48
and those are recreational vehicles right there.
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a ono tamo su kamp-vozila.
03:51
So it's about a mile across, 600 feet deep.
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Znači da je oko kilometar ipo širok, a 180 metara dubok.
03:54
The object that formed this was probably about 30 to 50 yards across,
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Objekat koji ga je stvorio je verovatno bio prečnika 27 do 45 metara,
03:59
so roughly the size of Macky Auditorium here.
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grubo veličine ovog "Meki" auditorijuma.
04:03
It came in at speeds that were tremendous,
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Došao je neverovatnom brzinom,
tresnuo u površinu, razleteo se
04:06
slammed into the ground, blew up,
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04:08
and exploded with the energy of roughly a 20-megaton nuclear bomb --
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i eksplodirao energijom otprilike nuklearne bombe od 20 megatona -
04:12
a very hefty bomb.
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veoma moćna bomba.
04:13
This was 50,000 years ago,
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Ovo se desilo pre 50.000 godina,
04:15
so it may have wiped out a few buffalo or antelope,
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tako da je verovatno ubilo nekoliko bufala ili antilopa
04:18
or something like that out in the desert,
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ili nečeg sličnog tamo u pustinji,
04:21
but it probably would not have caused global devastation.
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ali verovatno nije uzrokovao globalnu pustoš.
Ispostavilo se da oni ne moraju da udare u zemlju
04:25
It turns out that these things don't have to hit the ground
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04:28
to do a lot of damage.
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da bi učinili mnogo štete.
04:30
Now, in 1908, over Siberia, near the Tunguska region --
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1908. iznad Sibira, u blizini regiona Tunguska -
04:34
for those of you who are Dan Aykroyd fans and saw "Ghostbusters,"
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za vas koji ste obožavaoci Dena Akrojda i gledali "Ghoustbusterse"
04:37
when he talked about the greatest cross-dimensional rift
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kada je pričao o najvećem među-dimenzionalnom prolazu
04:40
since the Siberia blast of 1909,
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od eksplozije u Sibiru 1909, rekao je pogrešan datum, ali nema veze.
04:42
where he got the date wrong, but that's OK.
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04:44
(Laughter)
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04:45
It was 1908. That's fine. I can live with that.
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Bilo je to 1908. Nije bitno. Izdrzaću.
04:48
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:50
Another rock came into the Earth's atmosphere
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Drugi kamen je došao u Zemljinu atmosferu,
04:53
and this one blew up above the ground,
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i ovaj je eksplodirao iznad površine,
04:55
several miles up above the surface of the Earth.
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nekoliko kilometara iznad Zemljinog tla.
04:57
The heat from the explosion set fire to the forest below it,
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Vrelina eksplozije je zapalila šumu ispod
05:02
and then the shock wave came down and knocked down trees
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i razvila talas koji je oborio drveće
na površini od nekoliko stotina kvadratnih kilometara, razumete?
05:06
for hundreds of square miles.
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05:08
This did a huge amount of damage.
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Ovo je učinilo ogromnu štetu.
05:10
And again, this was a rock probably roughly the size
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Ponovo, ovo je bio kamen otprilike
veličine ovog auditorijuma u kome sedimo.
05:13
of this auditorium that we're sitting in.
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05:15
In Meteor Crater, it was made of metal,
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Meteor je bio sačinjen od metala,
05:17
and metal is much tougher, so it made it to the ground.
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metal je mnogo tvrđi, tako da je uspeo da stigne do zemlje.
05:20
The one over Tunguska was probably made of rock,
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Onaj iznad Tunguske je verovatno bio sačinjen od kamena,
05:22
and that's much more crumbly, so it blew up in the air.
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a on se mnogo lakše mrvi, tako da se razleteo u vazduhu.
05:25
Either way, these are tremendous explosions -- 20 megatons.
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Bilo kako, ovo su ogromne eksplozije, 20 megatona.
05:30
Now, when these things blow up,
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Kada eksplodiraju,
05:32
they're not going to do global ecological damage.
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oni neće napraviti globalnu ekološku katastrofu.
05:35
They're not going to do something like the dinosaur killer did.
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Oni neće učiniti ništa slično uništenju dinosaurusa.
Oni jednostavno nisu dovoljno krupni.
05:39
They're just not big enough.
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05:40
But they will do global economic damage,
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Ali, učinice globalnu, ekonomsku štetu,
05:43
because they don't have to hit, necessarily,
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zato što nije neophodno da nas udare
05:45
to do this kind of damage.
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kako bi pričinili ovakvu štetu.
05:47
They don't have to do global devastation.
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Ne moraju da učine globalno uništenje.
05:49
If one of these things were to hit pretty much anywhere,
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Ukoliko neki od njih igde udari, proizveo bi paniku.
05:52
it would cause a panic.
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05:53
But if it came over a city, an important city --
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Ali, ako bi prešao iznad grada, važnog grada -
05:56
not that any city is more important than others,
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nije da su neki gradovi važniji od drugih,
05:58
but some of them we depend on more on the global economic basis --
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ali od nekih zavisimo više od drugih
na globalnoj, ekonomskoj skali -
06:01
that could do a huge amount of damage to us as a civilization.
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to bi nam moglo pričiniti ogromnu štetu,
nama kao civilizaciji.
06:07
So, now that I've scared the crap out of you --
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Dakle, sada kada sam vas uplašio...
06:10
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:11
what can we do about this?
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šta bismo mogli učiniti?
06:13
This is a potential threat.
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Ovo je potencijalna pretnja.
06:15
Let me note that we have not had a giant impact like the dinosaur killer
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Primetićete da nismo imali katastrofalan udar
kao onaj koji je uništio dinosauruse u poslednjih 65 miliona godina.
06:20
for 65 million years.
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06:21
They're very rare.
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Oni su veoma retki.
06:23
The smaller ones happen more often,
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Manji se događaju mnogo češće,
06:25
but probably on the order of a millennium,
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ali na milenijumskoj skali,
06:27
every few centuries or every few thousand years.
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verovatno svakih nekoliko vekova ili nekoliko hiljada godina,
06:31
But it's still something to be aware of.
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ali ipak je to nešto čega moramo biti svesni.
06:33
Well, what do we do about them?
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Šta možemo da učinimo?
06:34
The first thing we have to do is find them.
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Prvo moramo da ih pronađemo.
06:36
This is an image of an asteroid that passed us in 2009.
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Ovo je slika asteroida koji nas je prošao 2009.
06:41
It's right here.
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Evo ga ovde.
06:42
But you can see that it's extremely faint.
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Možete primetiti da je poprilično nejasno.
06:45
I don't know if you can see that in the back row.
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Ne znam da li možete videti iz poslednjeg reda.
06:47
These are just stars.
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Ovo su samo zvezde.
06:49
This is a rock that was about 30 yards across,
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Ovo je kamen koji je bio oko 28 metara u prečniku
06:51
so roughly the size of the ones that blew up over Tunguska
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znači otprilike, veličine onoga koji se razleteo iznad Tunguske
06:54
and hit Arizona 50,000 years ago.
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i onoga koji je pogodio Arizonu pre 50.000 godina.
06:56
These things are faint.
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Oni su nejasni.
06:57
They're hard to see, and the sky is really big.
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Teško se vide, a nebo je zaista ogromno.
07:00
We have to find these things first.
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Mi moramo brzo da ih uočimo.
07:02
Well, the good news is, we're looking for them.
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Dobra vest je da ih tražimo.
07:04
NASA has devoted money to this;
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NASA je namenila novac za ovo.
07:06
the National Science Foundation and other countries
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Nacionalna naučna fondacija i druge zemlje su veoma zainteresovane za ovo.
07:09
are interested in doing this.
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07:10
We're building telescopes that are looking for the threat.
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Gradimo teleskope koji će tražiti ovu pretnju.
07:13
That's a great first step. But what's the second step?
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To je odličan prvi korak, ali šta je drugi korak?
07:16
The second step is if we see one heading toward us, we have to stop it.
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Drugi korak je da primetimo onaj koji ide prema nama,
moramo ga zaustaviti.
07:19
What do we do?
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Šta da uradimo?
07:20
You've probably heard about the asteroid Apophis.
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Verovatno ste čuli za asteroid Apofiz.
Ukoliko niste, čućete.
07:23
If you haven't yet, you will.
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07:25
If you've heard about the Mayan 2012 apocalypse,
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Ako ste čuli za kalendar Maja i apokalipsu 2012, čućete i za Apofiz,
07:27
you're going to hear about Apophis,
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07:29
because you're keyed in to all the doomsday networks, anyway.
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zato što su vezani za teoriju o sudnjem danu.
(Smeh)
07:33
(Laughter)
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07:34
Apophis is an asteroid that was discovered in 2004.
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Apofiz je asteroid koji je otkriven 2004.
07:37
It's roughly 250 [meters] across, so it's pretty big --
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Otprilike je 230 metara u prečniku,
znači da je prilično krupan, razumete,
07:41
bigger than a football stadium.
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veći od fudbalskog stadiona -
07:43
And it's going to pass by the Earth in April of 2029.
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i proći će pored Zemlje u aprilu 2029.
07:47
And it's going to pass us so close
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Proći će pored nas toliko blizu da će ustvari proći ispod
07:49
that it's actually going to come underneath our weather satellites.
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naših meteoroloških satelita.
07:52
The Earth's gravity is going to bend the orbit of this thing so much
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Zemljina gravitacija će zakriviti njegovu putanju toliko,
07:56
that if it's just right,
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da je moguće da, ukoliko prođe ovaj region u svemiru,
07:58
if it passes through this region of space,
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08:00
this kidney-bean-shaped region called the keyhole,
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ovaj region u obliku pasulja poznat kao ključaonica,
08:03
the Earth's gravity will bend it just enough that seven years later,
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Zemljina gravitacija će ga zakriviti sasvim dovoljno
da sedam godina kasnije, 13. aprila, a to je petak, primetiću,
08:07
on April 13 -- which is a Friday, I'll note -- in the year 2036 --
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godine 2036 -
08:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:12
you can't plan that kind of stuff --
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tako nešto ne možete planirati -
08:14
(Laughter)
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da će nas Apofiz pogoditi.
08:15
Apophis is going to hit us.
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08:16
And it's 250 meters across, so it would do unbelievable damage.
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On je prečnika 250 metara,
znači učinio bi nevrovatnu štetu.
08:21
The good news is that the odds of it actually passing through this keyhole
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Dobra vest je da verovatnoća da će proći kroz ključaonicu
i pogoditi nas sledeći put kada naiđe, je jedan od milion, otprilike,
08:24
and hitting us next go-around are one in a million, roughly --
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08:27
very, very low odds.
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veoma, veoma slaba,
tako da ja lično nisam budan noćima zbog brige o ovome.
08:29
So I personally am not lying awake at night worrying about this at all.
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Ja mislim da Apofiz nije problem.
08:32
I don't think Apophis is a problem.
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U stvari, Apofiz je prikriveni blagoslov,
08:34
In fact, Apophis is a blessing in disguise,
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08:36
because it woke us up to the dangers of these things.
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zato što nas je upozorio na opasnosti od asteroida.
08:39
This thing was discovered just a few years ago
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Ovaj je otkriven pre svega nekoliko godina
08:41
and could hit us a few years from now.
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i mogao bi nas pogoditi u narednih nekoliko godina.
08:43
It won't, but it gives us a chance to study these kinds of asteroids.
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Neće, ali nam daje šansu da proučimo ovakve asteroide.
08:46
We didn't really necessarily understand these keyholes, and now we do,
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Uistinu mi nismo razumeli ove ključaonice,
ali sada ih razumemo, a to je veoma važno,
08:50
and it turns out that's really important,
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08:52
because how do you stop an asteroid like this?
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jer kako da zaustavimo ovakve asteroide?
08:55
Well, let me ask you:
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I da vas pitam,
08:56
What happens if you're standing in the road and a car's headed for you?
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šta radite ako stojite na putu
i automobil ide prema vama? Šta radite?
09:00
What do you do?
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Ovo.
09:01
You do this. Right? Move, and the car goes past you.
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Je li tako? I automobil prođe pored vas.
09:03
But we can't move the Earth, at least not easily,
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Ali ne možemo pomeriti Zemlju, barem ne jednostavno,
ali možemo pomeriti mali asteroid.
09:06
but we can move a small asteroid.
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09:07
And it turns out, we've even done it.
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U stvari, to smo već radili.
Godine 2005, NASA je lansirala sondu nazvanu "Deep Impact",
09:10
In the year 2005, NASA launched a probe called Deep Impact,
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koja se sudarila i zarila jedan svoj deo u središte komete.
09:14
which slammed a piece of itself into the nucleus of a comet.
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09:18
Comets are very much like asteroids.
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Komete su prilično slične asteroidima.
09:20
The purpose wasn't to push it out of the way;
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Svrha nije bila da se ona skrene sa putanje.
09:22
the purpose was to make a crater to excavate the material
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Svrha je bila napraviti krater i izdvojiti materijal
09:25
and see what was underneath the surface of this comet,
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i videti šta je ispod površine ove komete,
09:28
which we learned quite a bit about.
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o čemu smo naučili mnogo.
09:29
We did move the comet a little tiny bit --
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Malo smo pomerili kometu ne mnogo, ali to i nije bio cilj.
09:32
not very much, but that wasn't the point.
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09:34
However, think about this:
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Međutim, razmislite o ovome.
09:36
This thing is orbiting the Sun at 10, 20 miles per second.
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Ona kruži oko Sunca brzinom 15 ili 20 kilometara u sekundi.
09:40
We shot a space probe at it and hit it, OK?
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Lansirali smo sondu i pogodili je.
09:43
Imagine how hard that must be, and we did it.
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Zamislite koliko je to teško, ali smo uspeli.
09:45
That means we can do it again.
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To znači da možemo to učiniti ponovo.
09:47
If we see an asteroid that's coming toward us, headed right for us,
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Ukoliko primetimo asteroid koji dolazi prema nama,
i ide pravo na nas,
09:51
and we have two years to go?
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i imamo samo dve godine,
09:53
Boom! We hit it.
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tras, pogodak.
09:54
You know, if you watch the movies --
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Možete pomisliti - ukoliko gledate filmove,
09:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:58
you might think:
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možete pomisliti, zašto ne upotrebimo nuklearno oružje?
09:59
Why don't we use a nuclear weapon?
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10:01
Well, you can try that, but the problem is timing.
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Pa, možemo to pokušati, ali problem je u vremenu.
10:03
Shoot a nuclear weapon at this thing,
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Ako ispalimo nuklearno oružje na ovu stvar,
10:05
you have to blow it up within a few milliseconds of tolerance,
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moramo ga aktivirati u nekoliko milisekundi tolerancije
10:08
or else you'll miss it.
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ili ćemo je promašiti.
10:09
And there are a lot of other problems with that; it's very hard to do.
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A ima tu i mnogo drugih problema sa tim.
To je jako teško uraditi.
Ali samo pogoditi nešto? To je veoma lako.
10:13
But just hitting something? That's pretty easy.
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Verujem da čak i NASA to može, dokazali su da mogu.
10:15
I think even NASA can do that, and proved that they can.
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(Smeh)
10:18
(Laughter)
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Problem je, šta ako pogodimo ovaj asteroid,
10:19
The problem is, if you hit this asteroid, you've changed the orbit,
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promenimo mu putanju,
10:22
you measure the orbit,
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premerimo orbitu i otkrijemo,
10:23
then you find out, oh yeah, we just pushed it into a keyhole,
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uh, da, upravo smo ga gurnuli kroz ključaonicu
10:26
and now it's going to hit us in three years.
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i sada će nas pogoditi za tri godine.
10:28
Well, my opinion is: fine!
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Pa, po mom mišljenju, to je u redu, OK?
10:30
It's not hitting us in six months --
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Neće nas pogoditi kroz šest meseci.
10:32
that's good.
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I to je dobro.
10:33
Now we have three years to do something else.
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Sada imamo tri godine da smislimo nešto.
10:36
And you can hit it again.
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Možemo ga još jednom pogoditi.
10:38
That's kind of ham-fisted;
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To je pomalo lutrija.
10:39
you might just push it into a third keyhole or whatever,
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Možemo ga gurnuti u treću ključaonicu ili slično, pa to nećemo uraditi.
10:42
so you don't do that.
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A ovo je deo, deo koji ja prosto volim.
10:43
And this is the part --
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10:45
it's the part I just love.
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10:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:48
After the big macho "Grr ... bam! We're gonna hit this thing in the face,"
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Nakon velikog mačo, "Grrrrrr TRAS!
Udarićemo ga posred lica",
10:53
then we bring in the velvet gloves.
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ipak ćemo doneti plišane rukavice.
10:56
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:58
There's a group of scientists and engineers and astronauts,
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Postoji grupa naučnika i inženjera i astronauta
koji sebe nazivaju Fondacija B612
11:01
and they call themselves The B612 Foundation.
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11:03
For those of you who've read "The Little Prince,"
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Vi koji ste pročitali "Malog princa", razumećete, nadam se.
11:05
you understand that reference, I hope --
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Mali princ je živeo na asteroidu koji se zvao B612.
11:07
the little prince lived on an asteroid called B612.
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Ovo su pametni ljudi - muškarci i žene -
11:10
These are smart guys -- men and women -- astronauts, like I said, engineers.
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astronauti, kao što rekoh, inženjeri.
11:14
Rusty Schweickart, who was an Apollo 9 astronaut, is on this.
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Rasti Šveikart, koji je bio astronaut na Apolu 9, i on je ovde.
11:17
Dan Durda, my friend who made this image,
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Den Darda, moj prijatelj koji je napravio ovu sliku, radi ovde,
11:19
works here at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, on Walnut Street.
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u Jugozapadnom istraživačkom centru u Bulderu, u Ulici Volnat.
11:23
He created this image for this.
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On je napravio ovu sliku za ovo
i on je zapravo jedan od astronoma koji radi za njih.
11:25
He's actually one of the astronomers who works for them.
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11:27
If we see an asteroid that's going to hit the Earth
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Ukoliko vidimo asteroid koji će pogoditi Zemlju
11:30
and we have enough time,
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i ukoliko imamo dovoljno vremena,
11:32
we can hit it to move it into a better orbit.
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možemo ga pogoditi i pomeriti u bolju orbitu.
11:34
But then what we do is launch a probe that has to weigh a ton or two.
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I onda ćemo lansirati sondu koja je teška tonu ili dve.
11:39
It doesn't have to be huge -- a couple of tons, not that big --
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Ne mora da bude ogromna - par tona, ne prevelika -
11:42
and you park it near the asteroid.
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i parkiraćemo je u blizini asteroida.
Nećemo sleteti na njega, jer oni se prevrću i obrću.
11:44
You don't land on it, because these things are tumbling end over end.
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Veoma je teško sleteti na njih.
11:47
It's very hard to land on them.
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11:48
Instead you get near it.
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Umesto toga samo ćemo im prići blizu.
Gravitacija asteroida će povući sondu,
11:50
The gravity of the asteroid pulls on the probe,
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a sonda ima masu od par tona.
11:52
and the probe has a couple of tons of mass.
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Ima veoma slabu gravitaciju,
11:54
It has a little tiny bit of gravity,
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11:56
but it's enough that it can pull the asteroid,
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ali i to je dovoljno da povuče asteroid,
11:59
and you have your rocket set up --
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a imamo i pripremljene rakete,
12:01
you can barely see it here, but there's rocket plumes --
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tako da - ah, ovde možete jedva videti, ali ovde su raketni otvori -
12:04
and these guys are connected by their own gravity,
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i u osnovi, oni su povezani sa njihovom gravitacijom,
12:07
and if you move the probe very slowly -- very, very gently,
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i ukoliko pomerimo sondu veoma polako,
veoma, veoma nežno,
12:10
you can very easily finesse that rock into a safe orbit.
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možemo veoma lako pomeriti kamen u sigurnu orbitu.
Možemo ga čak i postaviti u Zemljinu orbitu
12:16
You can even put in orbit around the Earth where we could mine it,
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gde ga možemo iskopavati, ali to je potpuno nova tema.
12:19
although that's a whole other thing; I won't go into that.
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(Smeh)
12:22
(Laughter)
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Ali, obogatili bismo se!
12:23
But we'd be rich!
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12:24
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:30
So think about this, right?
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Mislite o tome, razumete?
Ovo džinovsko kamenje leti tamo,
12:33
There are these giant rocks flying out there, and they're hitting us,
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i udara u nas, i čini nam štetu,
12:36
and they're doing damage to us.
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12:37
But we've figured out how to do this,
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ali mi smo naučili kako da uradimo ovo,
12:39
and all the pieces are in place to do this.
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a i posedujemo sve potrebno da bismo to izveli.
12:41
We have astronomers with telescopes, looking for them.
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Imamo astronome raspoređene sa teleskopima koji ih traže.
12:45
We have very, very smart people,
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Imamo pametne ljude,
veoma, veoma pametne ljude,
12:47
who are concerned about this and figuring out how to fix the problem,
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koji su zabrinuti za ovo i pokušavaju da reše problem,
12:50
and we have the technology to do this.
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a imamo tehnologiju da to uradimo.
12:52
This probe actually can't use chemical rockets.
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Zapravo, ova sonda ne može da koristi hemijske rakete.
12:54
Chemical rockets provide too much thrust, too much push.
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One proizvode prejak potisak, previše snage.
12:57
The probe would just shoot away.
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Sonda bi jednostavno nekontrolisano odletela.
12:59
We invented something called an ion drive,
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Izumeli smo nešto nazvano jonski pogon,
13:01
which is a very, very, very low-thrust engine.
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a to je motor sa veoma, veoma slabim potiskom.
13:03
It generates the force a piece of paper would have on your hand --
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Stvara silu kao parče papira na vašoj ruci, izuzetno slabu,
13:07
incredibly light, but it can run for months and years,
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ali može da radi mesecima i godinama,
13:11
providing that very gentle push.
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stvarajući veoma nežan potisak.
13:13
If anybody here is a fan of the original "Star Trek,"
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Ako je neko ovde ljubitelj originala "Zvezdanih staza",
13:16
they ran across an alien ship that had an ion drive,
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oni su naišli na vanzemaljski brod koji je imao jonski pogon,
13:18
and Spock said, "They're very technically sophisticated.
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a Spok je rekao, "Oni su veoma tehnički usavršeni.
13:21
They're a hundred years ahead of us with this drive."
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Sa ovim pogonom, oni su stotine godina ispred nas."
Da, mi sada imamo jonski pogon.
13:24
Yeah, we have an ion drive now.
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13:25
We don't have the Enterprise, but we've got an ion drive now.
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Nemamo Enterprajz, ali za sada imamo jon pogon.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Aplauz)
13:30
(Applause)
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13:32
Spock.
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Spok.
13:34
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:36
So ...
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Dakle...
to je razlika, to je razlika između nas i dinosaurusa.
13:39
That's the difference --
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13:40
that's the difference between us and the dinosaurs.
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13:43
This happened to them.
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Njima se ovo dogodilo.
13:45
It doesn't have to happen to us.
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Ali ne mora da se dogodi nama.
13:47
The difference between the dinosaurs and us
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Razlika između dinosaurusa i nas
13:50
is that we have a space program
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je da mi imamo svemirski program
i mi možemo da glasamo,
13:53
and we can vote,
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13:54
and so we can change our future.
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i možemo da promenimo našu budućnost.
13:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:58
We have the ability to change our future.
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Mi imamo sposobnost da promenimo budućnost.
14:00
Sixty-five million years from now,
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Kroz 65 miliona godina
14:02
we don't have to have our bones collecting dust in a museum.
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naše kosti ne moraju da skupljaju prašinu u muzeju.
14:06
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
14:08
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
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