Phil Plait: How to defend Earth from asteroids

148,703 views ・ 2011-11-21

TED


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Prevoditelj: Davorin Jelačić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:16
I want to talk to you about something
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Želim vam govoriti
00:18
kind of big.
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o nečemu velikom.
00:21
We'll start here.
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Počet ćemo od ovoga.
00:24
Sixty-five million years ago --
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Prije 65 milijuna godina
00:26
(Laughter)
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00:27
the dinosaurs had a bad day.
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dinosauri su imali gadan dan.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:33
A chunk of rock six miles across,
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Komad stijene promjera 9 kilometara
00:36
moving something like 50 times the speed of a rifle bullet,
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koji se kretao brzinom otprilike
50 puta bržom od metka,
00:40
slammed into the Earth.
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zabio se u Zemlju.
00:42
It released its energy all at once,
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Oslobodio je svu energiju odjednom
00:44
and it was an explosion that was mind-numbing.
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i došlo je do eksplozije
nepojmljive siline.
00:48
If you took every nuclear weapon ever built
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Uzmete li sva nuklearna oružja ikad napravljena
na vrhuncu hladnog rata,
00:51
at the height of the Cold War,
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00:52
lumped them together,
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skupite ih i dignete u zrak
00:54
and blew them up at the same time,
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u isto vrijeme,
00:56
that would be one one-millionth of the energy released at that moment.
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oslobodio bi se milijunti dio
energije oslobođene u onom trenutku.
01:02
The dinosaurs had a really bad day.
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Dinosauri su imali doista loš dan.
01:05
OK?
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Dobro?
01:06
Now, a six-mile-wide rock is very large.
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Devet kilometara široka stijena je stvarno velika.
01:09
We all live here in Boulder.
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Svi mi živimo ovdje u Boulderu.
01:10
If you look out your window and see Longs Peak --
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Ako pogledate kroz prozor, možete vidjeti
01:13
you're probably familiar with it --
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Long's Peak, vjerojatno vam je poznat.
01:14
now, scoop up Longs Peak and put it out in space.
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Podignimo Long's Peak, i stavimo ga
01:17
Take ... Meeker, Mt. Meeker.
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u svemir.
Uzmimo planinu Meeker, Mt. Meeker.
01:20
Lump that in there, and put that in space as well.
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Stavimo i nju u svemir,
01:23
And Mt. Everest. And K2.
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i Mt. Everest, i K2,
i Indian Peaks.
01:26
And the Indian peaks.
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Tada ćete početi shvaćati
01:28
Then you're starting to get an idea of how much rock we're talking about, OK?
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o kolikoj stijeni pričamo, u redu?
01:31
We know it was that big
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Znamo da je bila tako velika zbog
01:33
because of the impact it had and the crater it left.
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učinka i kratera koji je ostavila.
01:35
It hit in what we now know as Yucatan, the Gulf of Mexico.
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Udarila je na mjestu koje zovemo Yucatan,
u Meksičkom zaljevu.
01:39
You can see here, there's the Yucatan Peninsula,
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Evo ovdje, ovo je
poluotok Yucatan, ako prepoznajete Cozumel
01:42
if you recognize Cozumel off the east coast there.
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u blizini istočne obale.
01:44
Here is how big of a crater was left.
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Evo koliki je krater ostao.
01:47
It was huge.
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01:48
To give you a sense of the scale ... there you go.
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Bio je ogroman. Da biste dobili osjećaj veličine,
evo. Ovdje je mjerilo
01:51
The scale here is 50 miles on top, a hundred kilometers on the bottom.
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50 milja na vrhu, stotinu kilometara
na dnu. Krater je bio
01:55
This thing was 300 kilometers across -- 200 miles --
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širok 300 kilometara -- 200 milja --
01:58
an enormous crater that excavated out vast amounts of earth
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ogroman krater koji je iskopao
nepregledne količine zemlje koja je letjela
02:02
that splashed around the globe and set fires all over the planet,
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globusom i palila požare po cijelom planetu,
02:06
threw up enough dust to block out the sun.
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izbacila dovoljno prašine da prekrije sunce.
02:09
It wiped out 75 percent of all species on Earth.
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75 posto svih živih vrsta na Zemlji
bilo je izbrisano.
02:13
Now, not all asteroids are that big.
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Nisu svi asteroidi tako veliki.
02:16
Some of them are smaller.
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Neki su manji.
02:18
Here is one that came in
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Evo jednog koji je stigao
02:21
over the United States in October of 1992.
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nad Sjedinjene Države
u listopadu 1992.
02:25
It came in on a Friday night.
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Stigao je u petak uvečer.
02:27
Why is that important?
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Zašto je to važno?
02:28
Because back then, video cameras were just starting to become popular,
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Zato što su u to vrijeme video kamere
postajale popularne i ljudi bi ih
02:32
and parents would bring them to their kids' football games
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ponijeli, roditelji su ih nosili
na nogometne utakmice da snime svoju djecu
02:36
to film their kids playing football.
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na terenu. A kako je asteroid došao u petak,
02:38
And since this came in on a Friday,
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02:40
they were able to get this great footage of this thing breaking up
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snimili su ovu sjajnu snimku gdje vidimo
kako se ta stvar raspada dok pristiže
02:44
as it came in over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey
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iznad Zapadne Virginije, Marylanda, Pennsylvanije
i New Jerseya dok nije napravila ovo
02:47
until it did that
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02:48
to a car in New York.
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automobilu u New Yorku.
02:50
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:52
Now, this is not a 200-mile-wide crater,
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Ovo nije krater širok 300 kilometara,
02:55
but then again, you can see the rock, which is sitting right here,
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no možete vidjeti stijenu
koja leži baš ovdje,
02:59
about the size of a football,
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veličine nogometne lopte, i to je ta
03:00
that hit that car and did that damage.
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koja je pogodila automobil i napravila štetu.
03:02
Now, this thing was probably about the size of a school bus
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Stijena je vjerojatno bila veličine
03:05
when it first came in.
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školskog autobusa kad se pojavila.
03:06
It broke up through atmospheric pressure,
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Razlomila se uslijed atmosferskog pritiska,
03:08
it crumbled, and then the pieces fell apart
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razmrvila, a tada su dijelovi pali zasebno
03:11
and did some damage.
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i napravili štetu.
03:12
Now, you wouldn't want that falling on your foot or your head,
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Ne biste htjeli da vam to padne na nogu
ili na glavu, jer biste prošli ovako.
03:16
because it would do that to it.
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03:17
That would be bad.
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To bi bilo loše.
03:19
But it won't wipe out, you know, all life on Earth, so that's fine.
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Ali neće izbrisati sav život
na Zemlji, što je dobro. No, pokazuje se,
03:23
But it turns out, you don't need something six miles across
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da vam ne treba nešto široko 9 kilometara
03:26
to do a lot of damage.
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da napravi puno štete.
03:28
There is a median point between tiny rock and gigantic rock,
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Postoji medijan između malene stijene
i divovske stijene i, ako je itko od vas
03:31
and in fact, if any of you have ever been to near Winslow, Arizona,
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bio blizu Winslowa u Arizoni,
03:35
there is a crater in the desert there that is so iconic
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ondje je krater u pustinji
koji je tako živopisan da se zove Meteor Crater.
03:39
that it is actually called "Meteor Crater."
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03:41
To give you a sense of scale, this is about a mile wide.
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Da biste imali osjećaj, ovo je negdje 1,6 km široko.
03:44
If you look up at the top, that's a parking lot,
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Ako pogledate gore, vidite parkiralište,
03:48
and those are recreational vehicles right there.
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a ovdje su rekreacijska vozila.
03:51
So it's about a mile across, 600 feet deep.
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Širok je oko 1,6 km, dubok oko 200 metara.
03:54
The object that formed this was probably about 30 to 50 yards across,
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Objekt koji je ovo napravio je vjerojatno bio
širok 27 sa 45 metara, otprilike veličine
03:59
so roughly the size of Macky Auditorium here.
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ove naše dvorane.
04:03
It came in at speeds that were tremendous,
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Doletio je silnom brzinom,
04:06
slammed into the ground, blew up,
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zabio se u tlo i eksplodirao
04:08
and exploded with the energy of roughly a 20-megaton nuclear bomb --
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energijom otprilike
20-megatonske nuklearne bombe --
04:12
a very hefty bomb.
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poprilične bombe.
04:13
This was 50,000 years ago,
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To se zbilo prije 50.000 godina, pa je možda
04:15
so it may have wiped out a few buffalo or antelope,
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izbrisalo nekoliko bizona ili antilopi,
04:18
or something like that out in the desert,
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ili nekih sličnih životinja u pustinji,
04:21
but it probably would not have caused global devastation.
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ali vjerojatno nije prouzročilo
globalnu devastaciju.
04:25
It turns out that these things don't have to hit the ground
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Pokazuje se da te stvari ne moraju
udariti o tlo da bi izazvale veliku štetu.
04:28
to do a lot of damage.
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04:30
Now, in 1908, over Siberia, near the Tunguska region --
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1908. godine, nad Sibirom,
u regiji Tunguska -- za one među vama
04:34
for those of you who are Dan Aykroyd fans and saw "Ghostbusters,"
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koji volite Dana Aykroyda i gledali ste „Istjerivače duhova",
kad on govori o najvećem međudimenzionalnom rascjepu
04:37
when he talked about the greatest cross-dimensional rift
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od sibirske eksplozije 1909., kad je
04:40
since the Siberia blast of 1909,
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04:42
where he got the date wrong, but that's OK.
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pogriješio u godini, ali to je OK. (Smijeh)
04:44
(Laughter)
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Bilo je to 1908. Dobro. S tim se mogu pomiriti.
04:45
It was 1908. That's fine. I can live with that.
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(Smijeh)
04:48
(Laughter)
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04:50
Another rock came into the Earth's atmosphere
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Ta je stijena ušla u zemljinu atmosferu
04:53
and this one blew up above the ground,
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i eksplodirala iznad tla, nekoliko
04:55
several miles up above the surface of the Earth.
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kilometara iznad zemljine površine.
04:57
The heat from the explosion set fire to the forest below it,
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Vrelina eksplozije je zapalila
šumu ispod, i udarni val
05:02
and then the shock wave came down and knocked down trees
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se spustio i oborio drveće na površini
05:06
for hundreds of square miles.
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od više stotina četvornih kilometara, ok?
05:08
This did a huge amount of damage.
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Šteta je bila ogromna.
05:10
And again, this was a rock probably roughly the size
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Opet, ta je stijena otprilike bila
05:13
of this auditorium that we're sitting in.
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veličine dvorane u kojoj se nalazimo.
05:15
In Meteor Crater, it was made of metal,
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U slučaju Meteor Cratera, stijena je bila od metala,
05:17
and metal is much tougher, so it made it to the ground.
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a metal je puno tvrđi, pa je stigla
do tla.
05:20
The one over Tunguska was probably made of rock,
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Ona nad Tunguskom je vjerojatno bila
05:22
and that's much more crumbly, so it blew up in the air.
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od kamena koji se lakše mrvi, pa je
05:25
Either way, these are tremendous explosions -- 20 megatons.
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eksplodirala u zraku. Kako god,
to su silne eksplozije. 20 megatona.
05:30
Now, when these things blow up,
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Kad te stvari eksplodiraju,
05:32
they're not going to do global ecological damage.
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ne uzrokuju globalnu ekološku štetu.
05:35
They're not going to do something like the dinosaur killer did.
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Neće napraviti nešto poput
ubojice dinosaura.
05:39
They're just not big enough.
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Jednostavno nisu dovoljno velike.
05:40
But they will do global economic damage,
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Ali će napraviti globalnu ekonomsku štetu,
05:43
because they don't have to hit, necessarily,
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jer ne moraju nužno udariti,
05:45
to do this kind of damage.
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da bi nanijele tu vrstu štete.
05:47
They don't have to do global devastation.
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Ne moraju izazvati globalnu devastaciju.
05:49
If one of these things were to hit pretty much anywhere,
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Kad bi jedna od tih stvari udarila
bilo gdje, izazvala bi paniku.
05:52
it would cause a panic.
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05:53
But if it came over a city, an important city --
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No ako bi došla nad grad, neki važan grad --
ne mislim da je neki grad važniji od drugih,
05:56
not that any city is more important than others,
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ali o nekima više ovisimo
05:58
but some of them we depend on more on the global economic basis --
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u smislu globalne ekonomije -- to bi nam moglo
06:01
that could do a huge amount of damage to us as a civilization.
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nanijeti ogromnu štetu
kao civilizaciji.
06:07
So, now that I've scared the crap out of you --
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Sad kad sam vas izbezumio od straha ...
06:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:11
what can we do about this?
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što možemo učiniti oko ovoga? Dobro?
06:13
This is a potential threat.
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Ovo je potencijalna opasnost.
06:15
Let me note that we have not had a giant impact like the dinosaur killer
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Napominjem da nismo imali
silovit udar poput ubojice dinosaura
06:20
for 65 million years.
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već 65 milijuna godina. Vrlo su rijetki.
06:21
They're very rare.
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06:23
The smaller ones happen more often,
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Manji udari su češći,
06:25
but probably on the order of a millennium,
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vjerojatno svakih tisuću godina,
06:27
every few centuries or every few thousand years.
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svakih par stoljeća ili svakih nekoliko
tisuća godina, ali moramo voditi računa.
06:31
But it's still something to be aware of.
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06:33
Well, what do we do about them?
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Dakle, što učiniti u vezi s njima?
06:34
The first thing we have to do is find them.
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Prvo ih moramo pronaći.
06:36
This is an image of an asteroid that passed us in 2009.
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Ovo je slika asteroida koji je prošao
kraj nas 2009. godine.
06:41
It's right here.
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Evo ga ovdje.
06:42
But you can see that it's extremely faint.
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Ali vidite da je izuzetno blijed.
06:45
I don't know if you can see that in the back row.
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Nisam siguran možete li ga vidjeti
06:47
These are just stars.
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vi u zadnjem redu. Ovo su samo zvijezde.
06:49
This is a rock that was about 30 yards across,
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Ova stijena je bila oko 27 metara široka,
06:51
so roughly the size of the ones that blew up over Tunguska
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otprilike veličine onih koje su eksplodirale
nad Tunguskom ili u Arizoni prije 50.000 godina.
06:54
and hit Arizona 50,000 years ago.
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06:56
These things are faint.
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Te su stvari jedva vidljive.
06:57
They're hard to see, and the sky is really big.
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Teško ih je vidjeti, a nebo je doista veliko.
07:00
We have to find these things first.
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Prvo ih moramo naći.
07:02
Well, the good news is, we're looking for them.
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Dobra je vijest da ih tražimo.
07:04
NASA has devoted money to this;
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NASA ima proračun za to.
07:06
the National Science Foundation and other countries
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Nacionalna fondacija za znanost i
druge zemlje se zanimaju za to.
07:09
are interested in doing this.
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07:10
We're building telescopes that are looking for the threat.
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Pravimo teleskope koji traže
prijetnju. To je odličan prvi korak,
07:13
That's a great first step. But what's the second step?
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ali koji je drugi? Drugi korak je,
07:16
The second step is if we see one heading toward us, we have to stop it.
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kad vidimo asteroid kako ide na nas,
da ga zaustavimo. Na koji način?
07:19
What do we do?
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07:20
You've probably heard about the asteroid Apophis.
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Vjerojatno ste čuli za asteroid
Apophis. Ako još niste, čut ćete.
07:23
If you haven't yet, you will.
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07:25
If you've heard about the Mayan 2012 apocalypse,
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Ako ste čuli za majansku apokalipsu 2012.
07:27
you're going to hear about Apophis,
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čut ćete i za Apophis,
07:29
because you're keyed in to all the doomsday networks, anyway.
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jer ste onda već uključeni u sve mreže
koje prognoziraju sudnji dan.
07:33
(Laughter)
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07:34
Apophis is an asteroid that was discovered in 2004.
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Apophis je asteroid otkriven 2004.
07:37
It's roughly 250 [meters] across, so it's pretty big --
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Širok je oko 225 metara,
vrlo velik, znate,
07:41
bigger than a football stadium.
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veći od stadiona -- i proći će
07:43
And it's going to pass by the Earth in April of 2029.
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kraj Zemlje u travnju 2029.
07:47
And it's going to pass us so close
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Proći će tako blizu da će
07:49
that it's actually going to come underneath our weather satellites.
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proći ispod naših
klimatskih satelita.
07:52
The Earth's gravity is going to bend the orbit of this thing so much
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Zemljina gravitacija će zakriviti orbitu
asteroida toliko da, ako bude ovako,
07:56
that if it's just right,
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07:58
if it passes through this region of space,
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ako prođe kroz ovaj dio svemira,
08:00
this kidney-bean-shaped region called the keyhole,
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ovu regiju u obliku graha koju zovemo
08:03
the Earth's gravity will bend it just enough that seven years later,
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ključaonica, zemljina gravitacija će je dovoljno
zakriviti da ću ja, sedam godina kasnije,
08:07
on April 13 -- which is a Friday, I'll note -- in the year 2036 --
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13. travnja, u petak, zapisati,
godine 2036. ... (Smijeh)
08:11
(Laughter)
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08:12
you can't plan that kind of stuff --
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-- ne možete isplanirati ovakvo što --
08:14
(Laughter)
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08:15
Apophis is going to hit us.
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u tom slučaju će nas Apophis pogoditi.
08:16
And it's 250 meters across, so it would do unbelievable damage.
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Širok je 250 metara, pa će prouzročiti
nevjerojatnu štetu.
08:21
The good news is that the odds of it actually passing through this keyhole
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Dobra je vijest da su šanse da će
proći kroz ključaonicu i udariti nas
08:24
and hitting us next go-around are one in a million, roughly --
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u sljedećem prolazu, negdje 1 naprema milijun,
08:27
very, very low odds.
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vrlo, vrlo male šanse, pa osobno
08:29
So I personally am not lying awake at night worrying about this at all.
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baš i ne ležim budan noću brinući o tome.
Ne mislim da je Apophis problem.
08:32
I don't think Apophis is a problem.
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Zapravo, Apophis je skriveni blagoslov,
08:34
In fact, Apophis is a blessing in disguise,
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jer nam skreće pažnju na opasnost
08:36
because it woke us up to the dangers of these things.
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koja nam prijeti.
08:39
This thing was discovered just a few years ago
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Taj asteroid je otkriven prije samo nekoliko
08:41
and could hit us a few years from now.
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godina i može nas pogoditi za nekoliko godina.
08:43
It won't, but it gives us a chance to study these kinds of asteroids.
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Neće, ali nam pruža priliku da proučimo
tu vrstu asteroida. Nismo zapravo
08:46
We didn't really necessarily understand these keyholes, and now we do,
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razumjeli te ključaonice, ali sada
ih razumijemo i pokazuje se
08:50
and it turns out that's really important,
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da su zbilja važne, jer kako
08:52
because how do you stop an asteroid like this?
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zaustaviti ovakav asteroid?
08:55
Well, let me ask you:
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Da vas pitam, što se događa
08:56
What happens if you're standing in the road and a car's headed for you?
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ako stojite nasred ceste i automobil
juri na vas? Što činite? Ovo.
09:00
What do you do?
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09:01
You do this. Right? Move, and the car goes past you.
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Zar ne? Mičete se. Auto prolazi kraj vas.
09:03
But we can't move the Earth, at least not easily,
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Ali ne možemo pomaknuti Zemlju, barem
ne lako, ali možemo pomaknuti mali asteroid.
09:06
but we can move a small asteroid.
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09:07
And it turns out, we've even done it.
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Zapravo, već smo to učinili.
2005. je NASA lansirala sondu
09:10
In the year 2005, NASA launched a probe called Deep Impact,
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pod nazivom Deep Impact, koja se zabila --
09:14
which slammed a piece of itself into the nucleus of a comet.
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zabila svoj dio u jezgru kometa.
09:18
Comets are very much like asteroids.
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Kometi su vrlo slični asteroidima.
09:20
The purpose wasn't to push it out of the way;
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Cilj nije bio izgurati ga s putanje.
09:22
the purpose was to make a crater to excavate the material
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Cilj je bio napraviti krater i iskopati
materijal da vidimo što je ispod
09:25
and see what was underneath the surface of this comet,
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površine tog kometa, o kojemu
09:28
which we learned quite a bit about.
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smo naučili prilično puno.
09:29
We did move the comet a little tiny bit --
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Pomaknuli smo komet malo,
09:32
not very much, but that wasn't the point.
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vrlo malo, ali to nije bio cilj.
09:34
However, think about this:
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No, razmislite o sljedećem.
09:36
This thing is orbiting the Sun at 10, 20 miles per second.
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Ta stvar kruži oko sunca brzinom
od 15 km u sekundi, 30 km u sekundi.
09:40
We shot a space probe at it and hit it, OK?
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Ispalili smo sondu i pogodila ga. Dobro?
Zamislite kako je to teško postići, a mi smo uspjeli.
09:43
Imagine how hard that must be, and we did it.
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09:45
That means we can do it again.
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To znači da to možemo ponoviti.
09:47
If we see an asteroid that's coming toward us, headed right for us,
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Ako moramo, ako vidimo asteroid da ide
prema nama, ravno na nas,
09:51
and we have two years to go?
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i imamo još dvije godine, bum! Pogodimo ga.
09:53
Boom! We hit it.
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09:54
You know, if you watch the movies --
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Možete probati -- znate, ako gledate
09:57
(Laughter)
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filmove, mogli biste pomisliti,
09:58
you might think:
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09:59
Why don't we use a nuclear weapon?
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zašto ne upotrijebimo nuklearno oružje?
10:01
Well, you can try that, but the problem is timing.
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No, možete pokušati, ali problem je u tajmingu.
10:03
Shoot a nuclear weapon at this thing,
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Ispalite li nuklearno oružje na tu stvar,
10:05
you have to blow it up within a few milliseconds of tolerance,
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morate detonirati unutar nekoliko milisekundi
tolerancije ili ćete je promašiti.
10:08
or else you'll miss it.
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10:09
And there are a lot of other problems with that; it's very hard to do.
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A ima i drugih problema s time.
To je vrlo teško postići.
10:13
But just hitting something? That's pretty easy.
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No, samo nešto pogoditi? To je prilično lako.
10:15
I think even NASA can do that, and proved that they can.
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Mislim da to čak i NASA može,
a i dokazali su da mogu. (Smijeh)
10:18
(Laughter)
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10:19
The problem is, if you hit this asteroid, you've changed the orbit,
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Teškoća je, što ako pogodite
asteroid, promijenite mu orbitu,
10:22
you measure the orbit,
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10:23
then you find out, oh yeah, we just pushed it into a keyhole,
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izmjerite orbitu i otkrijete,
opa, da, upravo smo ga usmjerili u ključaonicu,
10:26
and now it's going to hit us in three years.
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i sad će nas pogoditi za tri godine.
10:28
Well, my opinion is: fine!
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Moje mišljenje je, fino. Dobro?
10:30
It's not hitting us in six months --
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Bar nas neće pogoditi za šest mjeseci. To je dobro.
10:32
that's good.
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10:33
Now we have three years to do something else.
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Sad imamo tri godine za pokušati nešto drugo.
10:36
And you can hit it again.
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I možete ga opet gađati.
10:38
That's kind of ham-fisted;
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No, možete ga samo pogurati prema trećoj
10:39
you might just push it into a third keyhole or whatever,
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ključaonici, a to ne želite učiniti.
10:42
so you don't do that.
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A sad slijedi dio priče koji naročito volim.
10:43
And this is the part --
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10:45
it's the part I just love.
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10:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:48
After the big macho "Grr ... bam! We're gonna hit this thing in the face,"
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Nakon velikog, mačo "Rrrrrrr BAM!
Pogodili smo tu stvar u facu",
navlačimo baršunaste rukavice.
10:53
then we bring in the velvet gloves.
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(Smijeh)
10:56
(Laughter)
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10:58
There's a group of scientists and engineers and astronauts,
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Imate jednu skupinu znanstvenika, inženjera
i astronauta koji se nazivaju
11:01
and they call themselves The B612 Foundation.
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Fondacija B612. Vi koji ste čitali
11:03
For those of you who've read "The Little Prince,"
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„Malog princa"
11:05
you understand that reference, I hope --
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razumijete odakle naziv. Mali princ je
11:07
the little prince lived on an asteroid called B612.
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živio na asteroidu koji se zvao B612.
11:10
These are smart guys -- men and women -- astronauts, like I said, engineers.
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To su pametni tipovi -- muškarci i žene --
astronauti, kako rekoh, inženjeri.
11:14
Rusty Schweickart, who was an Apollo 9 astronaut, is on this.
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Rusty Schweickart, astronaut s Apolla 9
je u tome. Dan Durda, moj prijatelj
11:17
Dan Durda, my friend who made this image,
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koji je izradio ovu ilustraciju, radi na
11:19
works here at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, on Walnut Street.
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Southwest Research institutu u Boulderu,
na Walnut Streetu. Napravio je ovaj prikaz,
11:23
He created this image for this.
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i on je jedan od astronoma
11:25
He's actually one of the astronomers who works for them.
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koji rade za fondaciju. Ako opazimo asteroid
11:27
If we see an asteroid that's going to hit the Earth
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koji će pogoditi Zemlju i imamo
11:30
and we have enough time,
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dovoljno vremena, možemo ga pogoditi i pomaknuti
11:32
we can hit it to move it into a better orbit.
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na bolju putanju. Lansiramo sondu
11:34
But then what we do is launch a probe that has to weigh a ton or two.
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koja mora biti tonu ili dvije teška.
Ne mora biti ogromna -- dvije tone,
11:39
It doesn't have to be huge -- a couple of tons, not that big --
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nije preveliko -- i parkirate je blizu asteroida.
11:42
and you park it near the asteroid.
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11:44
You don't land on it, because these things are tumbling end over end.
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Ne slijećete na asteroid, jer se oni
neprestano okreću. Teško je sletjeti na njih.
11:47
It's very hard to land on them.
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11:48
Instead you get near it.
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Već se smjestite blizu njega.
11:50
The gravity of the asteroid pulls on the probe,
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Gravitacija asteroida privlači sondu,
11:52
and the probe has a couple of tons of mass.
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a ona ima masu od dvije tone.
11:54
It has a little tiny bit of gravity,
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Njena je gravitacija vrlo mala, ali dovoljna
11:56
but it's enough that it can pull the asteroid,
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da povuče asteroid, a imate i rakete
11:59
and you have your rocket set up --
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pa možete -- ovdje se to jedva vidi,
12:01
you can barely see it here, but there's rocket plumes --
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ali ovo su raketni motori --
oni su povezani vlastitom gravitacijom
12:04
and these guys are connected by their own gravity,
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i ako mičete sondu vrlo polako,
12:07
and if you move the probe very slowly -- very, very gently,
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vrlo, vrlo nježno, možete lako
12:10
you can very easily finesse that rock into a safe orbit.
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uputiti tu stijenu na sigurnu putanju.
Možete je čak postaviti u orbitu oko Zemlje
12:16
You can even put in orbit around the Earth where we could mine it,
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gdje je možemo rudariti, premda je to
12:19
although that's a whole other thing; I won't go into that.
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nešto sasvim drugo. Ne ulazim u to.
(Smijeh)
12:22
(Laughter)
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12:23
But we'd be rich!
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Ali bili bismo bogati!
12:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:30
So think about this, right?
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Zato razmislite o tome, dobro?
Imate te divovske stijene koje lete posvuda,
12:33
There are these giant rocks flying out there, and they're hitting us,
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pogađaju nas i prave štetu,
12:36
and they're doing damage to us.
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ali smo shvatili kako ovo uraditi
12:37
But we've figured out how to do this,
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i sve su komponente na mjestu za to.
12:39
and all the pieces are in place to do this.
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12:41
We have astronomers with telescopes, looking for them.
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Imamo astronome s teleskopima
koji ih traže. Imamo pametne ljude,
12:45
We have very, very smart people,
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vrlo, vrlo pametne ljude koji brinu
12:47
who are concerned about this and figuring out how to fix the problem,
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o tome i smišljaju kako riješiti problem,
a imamo i tehnologiju za to.
12:50
and we have the technology to do this.
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12:52
This probe actually can't use chemical rockets.
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Ova sonda zapravo ne može koristiti kemijske rakete.
12:54
Chemical rockets provide too much thrust, too much push.
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Kemijske rakete daju previše potiska, previše
guranja. Sonda bi naprosto odletjela.
12:57
The probe would just shoot away.
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Izumili smo nešto što se zove ionski pogon,
12:59
We invented something called an ion drive,
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koji je pogon s vrlo, vrlo malim potiskom.
13:01
which is a very, very, very low-thrust engine.
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13:03
It generates the force a piece of paper would have on your hand --
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Stvara silu kakvu ima list papira
na vašem dlanu, nevjerojatno lagano,
13:07
incredibly light, but it can run for months and years,
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ali može raditi mjesecima i godinama,
ostvarujući taj vrlo nježan potisak.
13:11
providing that very gentle push.
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13:13
If anybody here is a fan of the original "Star Trek,"
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Ako ovdje ima ljubitelja izvornih „Zvjezdanih staza“,
oni su tamo naišli na izvanzemaljski brod
13:16
they ran across an alien ship that had an ion drive,
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s ionskim pogonom i Spock je rekao,
13:18
and Spock said, "They're very technically sophisticated.
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"Tehnološki su vrlo napredni.
13:21
They're a hundred years ahead of us with this drive."
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S ovim pogonom su stotinu godina ispred nas."
Da, sad i mi imamo ionski pogon. (Smijeh)
13:24
Yeah, we have an ion drive now.
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13:25
We don't have the Enterprise, but we've got an ion drive now.
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Nemamo Enterprise, ali
imamo ionski pogon.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Pljesak)
13:30
(Applause)
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13:32
Spock.
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Spock.
13:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:36
So ...
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Dakle ...
13:39
That's the difference --
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to je razlika, to je razlika
13:40
that's the difference between us and the dinosaurs.
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između nas i dinosaura.
13:43
This happened to them.
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Njima se to dogodilo.
13:45
It doesn't have to happen to us.
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Nama se ne mora dogoditi.
13:47
The difference between the dinosaurs and us
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Razlika između dinosaura i nas
13:50
is that we have a space program
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je u tome što mi imamo svemirski program
i možemo glasati,
13:53
and we can vote,
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13:54
and so we can change our future.
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pa time i promijeniti svoju budućnost.
13:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:58
We have the ability to change our future.
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Imamo sposobnost promijeniti svoju budućnost.
14:00
Sixty-five million years from now,
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Za 65 milijuna godina,
14:02
we don't have to have our bones collecting dust in a museum.
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naše kosti ne moraju
skupljati prašinu u nekom muzeju.
14:06
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam lijepa.
14:08
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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