Phil Plait: How to defend Earth from asteroids

149,072 views ใƒป 2011-11-21

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Nitai Gat ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:16
I want to talk to you about something
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ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืืชื›ื ืขืœ ืžืฉื”ื•
00:18
kind of big.
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ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื™ื—ืกื™ืช.
00:21
We'll start here.
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ื ืชื—ื™ืœ ื‘ื–ื”.
00:24
Sixty-five million years ago --
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ืœืคื ื™ 65 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืฉื ื™ื
00:26
(Laughter)
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00:27
the dinosaurs had a bad day.
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ืœื“ื™ื ื•ื–ืื•ืจื™ื ื”ื™ื” ื™ื•ื ืจืข.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
00:33
A chunk of rock six miles across,
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ื’ื•ืฉ ืกืœืข ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ืฉืœ ื›ืขืฉืจื” ืง"ืž,
00:36
moving something like 50 times the speed of a rifle bullet,
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ืฉื ืข ื‘ืขืจืš ืคื™ 50 ืžื”ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ
ืžืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืฉืœ ืงืœื™ืข-ืจื•ื‘ื”,
00:40
slammed into the Earth.
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ื”ืชื ื’ืฉ ื‘ื›ื“ื•ืจ ื”ืืจืฅ.
00:42
It released its energy all at once,
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ื›ืœ ื”ืื ืจื’ื™ื” ืฉืœื• ืฉื•ื—ืจืจื” ื‘ื‘ืช-ืื—ืช
00:44
and it was an explosion that was mind-numbing.
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ื•ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ืคื™ืฆื•ืฅ ืฉื”ื™ื”
ื‘ืœืชื™-ื ืชืคืก.
00:48
If you took every nuclear weapon ever built
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ืื ืชืงื—ื• ื›ืœ ื ืฉืง ื’ืจืขื™ื ื™ ืฉื ื‘ื ื” ืื™-ืคืขื
ื‘ืฉื™ื ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ื”ืงืจื”,
00:51
at the height of the Cold War,
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00:52
lumped them together,
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ืชืฆืจืคื• ืื•ืชื ื‘ื™ื—ื“ ื•ืชืคื•ืฆืฆื• ืื•ืชื
00:54
and blew them up at the same time,
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ื‘ื•-ื–ืžื ื™ืช,
00:56
that would be one one-millionth of the energy released at that moment.
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ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืื—ื“-ื—ืœืงื™-ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ
ืžื”ืื ืจื’ื™ื” ืฉืฉื•ื—ืจืจื” ื‘ืจื’ืข ื”ื”ื•ื.
01:02
The dinosaurs had a really bad day.
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ืœื“ื™ื ื•ื–ืื•ืจื™ื ื”ื™ื” ื™ื•ื ืžืžืฉ ืจืข.
01:05
OK?
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ืื•ืงื™ื™?
01:06
Now, a six-mile-wide rock is very large.
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ืกืœืข ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ืฉืœ ืขืฉืจื” ืง"ืž ื”ื•ื ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืžืื•ื“.
01:09
We all live here in Boulder.
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ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื’ืจื™ื ื›ืืŸ ื‘ื‘ื•ืœื“ืจ.
01:10
If you look out your window and see Longs Peak --
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ืื ืืชื ืฆื•ืคื™ื ืžื”ื—ืœื•ืŸ ื•ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืืช
01:13
you're probably familiar with it --
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ื”ืจ ืœื•ื ื’, ืืชื ื•ื•ื“ืื™ ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ืื•ืชื•.
01:14
now, scoop up Longs Peak and put it out in space.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืงื—ื• ืืช ื”ืจ ืœื•ื ื’ ื•ืฉื™ืžื• ืื•ืชื•
01:17
Take ... Meeker, Mt. Meeker.
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ื‘ื—ืœืœ.
ืงื—ื• ืืช ื”ืจ ืžื™ืงืจ, ืฆืจืคื• ืื•ืชื• ืœืฉื,
01:20
Lump that in there, and put that in space as well.
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ื•ืฉื™ืžื• ืืช ื–ื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ ื’ื ื›ืŸ,
01:23
And Mt. Everest. And K2.
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ื•ืืช ื”ืจ ื”ืื•ื•ืจืกื˜, ื•ืืช K2,
ื•ืืช ื”ืจื™ ื”"ืื™ื ื“ื™ืืŸ ืคื™ืงืก".
01:26
And the Indian peaks.
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ืืชื ืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ
01:28
Then you're starting to get an idea of how much rock we're talking about, OK?
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ืžื”ื• ื’ื•ื“ืœ ื”ืกืœืข ืขืœื™ื• ืื ื• ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื, ืื•ืงื™ื™?
01:31
We know it was that big
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ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ื›ื–ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืขืงื‘
01:33
because of the impact it had and the crater it left.
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ื”ื”ืฉืคืขื” ืฉืœื• ื•ื”ืžื›ืชืฉ ืฉื”ื•ื ื™ืฆืจ.
01:35
It hit in what we now know as Yucatan, the Gulf of Mexico.
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ื”ื•ื ืคื’ืข ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืฉื”ื™ื•ื ื ืงืจื ื™ื•ืงื˜ืŸ,
ืœื—ื•ืคื™ ืžืคืจืฅ ืžืงืกื™ืงื•.
01:39
You can see here, there's the Yucatan Peninsula,
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ืืคืฉืจ ืœืจืื•ืช ื›ืืŸ, ื”ื ื”
ื—ืฆื™-ื”ืื™ ื™ื•ืงื˜ืŸ, ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื–ื”ื•ืช ืืช ืงื•ื–ื•ืžืœ
01:42
if you recognize Cozumel off the east coast there.
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ืœื™ื“ ื”ื—ื•ืฃ ื”ืžื–ืจื—ื™.
01:44
Here is how big of a crater was left.
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ืชืจืื• ื›ืžื” ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื”ื™ื” ื”ืžื›ืชืฉ ืฉื ื•ืฆืจ.
01:47
It was huge.
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01:48
To give you a sense of the scale ... there you go.
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ื”ื™ื” ืขื ืง. ื›ื“ื™ ืฉื™ื”ื™ื” ืœื›ื ืงื ื” ืžื™ื“ื”,
ืื•ืงื™ื™, ื”ื ื”. ืงื ื” ื”ืžื™ื“ื” ื›ืืŸ ื”ื•ื
01:51
The scale here is 50 miles on top, a hundred kilometers on the bottom.
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50 ืžื™ื™ืœื™ื ืœืžืขืœื”, ืžืื” ืง"ืž
ืœืžื˜ื”. ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื”ื™ื”
01:55
This thing was 300 kilometers across -- 200 miles --
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ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ 300 ืง"ืž -- 200 ืžื™ื™ืœื™ื --
01:58
an enormous crater that excavated out vast amounts of earth
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ืžื›ืชืฉ ืขืฆื•ื ืฉืคื™ื–ืจ ื”ื—ื•ืฆื”
ื›ืžื•ืช ืื“ื™ืจื” ืฉืœ ืื“ืžื” ืฉื”ืชืคื–ืจื” ื‘ืจื—ื‘ื™
02:02
that splashed around the globe and set fires all over the planet,
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ื”ืขื•ืœื ื•ื”ืฆื™ืชื” ืฉืจืคื•ืช ื‘ืจื—ื‘ื™ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื,
02:06
threw up enough dust to block out the sun.
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ื”ืขื™ืคื” ืžืกืคื™ืง ืื‘ืง ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืกืชื™ืจ ืืช ื”ืฉืžืฉ
02:09
It wiped out 75 percent of all species on Earth.
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ื”ื™ื ื”ื›ื—ื™ื“ื” 75 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ืžื”ืžื™ื ื™ื
ืขืœ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื.
02:13
Now, not all asteroids are that big.
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ืœื ื›ืœ ื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ื™ื ื›ืืœื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื.
02:16
Some of them are smaller.
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ื›ืžื” ืžื”ื ืงื˜ื ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ.
02:18
Here is one that came in
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ื”ื ื” ืื—ื“ ืฉืขื‘ืจ
02:21
over the United States in October of 1992.
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ืžืขืœ ืืจื”"ื‘
ื‘ืื•ืงื˜ื•ื‘ืจ 1992.
02:25
It came in on a Friday night.
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ื”ื•ื ืขื‘ืจ ื‘ืฉื™ืฉื™ ื‘ืขืจื‘.
02:27
Why is that important?
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ืœืžื” ื–ื” ื—ืฉื•ื‘?
02:28
Because back then, video cameras were just starting to become popular,
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื‘ืชืงื•ืคื” ื”ื”ื™ื, ืžืฆืœืžื•ืช ื•ื™ื“ืื•
ืจืง ื”ืชื—ื™ืœื• ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืคื•ืคื•ืœืจื™ื•ืช, ื•ืื ืฉื™ื
02:32
and parents would bring them to their kids' football games
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ื”ื‘ื™ืื• ืื•ืชืŸ, ื”ื•ืจื™ื ื”ื‘ื™ืื• ืื•ืชืŸ,
ืœืžืฉื—ืงื™ ื”ืคื•ื˜ื‘ื•ืœ ืฉืœ ื™ืœื“ื™ื”ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฆืœื ืื•ืชื
02:36
to film their kids playing football.
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ืžืฉื—ืงื™ื ืคื•ื˜ื‘ื•ืœ. ื•ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ื•ื ืขื‘ืจ ื‘ืฉื™ืฉื™,
02:38
And since this came in on a Friday,
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02:40
they were able to get this great footage of this thing breaking up
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ื”ื ื™ื›ืœื• ืœืชืคื•ืก ืืช ื”ืฆื™ืœื•ื ื”ืžืขื•ืœื” ื”ื–ื”
ืฉืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ืžืชืคืจืง ื‘ืขื•ื“ื• ืขื•ื‘ืจ
02:44
as it came in over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey
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ืžืขืœ ื•ื™ืจื’'ื™ื ื™ื” ื”ืžืขืจื‘ื™ืช, ืžืจื™ืœื ื“, ืคื ืกื™ืœื‘ื ื™ื”
ื•ื ื™ื•-ื’'ืจื–ื™ ืขื“ ืฉื”ื•ื ืขืฉื” ืืช ื–ื”
02:47
until it did that
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02:48
to a car in New York.
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ืœืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ื‘ื ื™ื•-ื™ื•ืจืง.
02:50
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:52
Now, this is not a 200-mile-wide crater,
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ื–ื” ืื™ื ื• ืžื›ืชืฉ ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ 300 ืง"ืž,
02:55
but then again, you can see the rock, which is sitting right here,
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ืื‘ืœ ืžืฆื“ ืฉื ื™, ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช ืืช ื”ืกืœืข
ืฉืžื•ื ื— ืžืžืฉ ื›ืืŸ,
02:59
about the size of a football,
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ื‘ืขืจืš ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ ื›ื“ื•ืจ ืคื•ื˜ื‘ื•ืœ, ืฉืคื’ืข
03:00
that hit that car and did that damage.
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ื‘ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ื”ื–ื• ื•ื’ืจื ืœื ื–ืง ื”ื–ื”.
03:02
Now, this thing was probably about the size of a school bus
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื›ื ืจืื” ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ
03:05
when it first came in.
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ืื•ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืก ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื•ื ื”ื’ื™ืข.
03:06
It broke up through atmospheric pressure,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืชืคืจืง ืขืงื‘ ืœื—ืฆื™ ื”ืื˜ืžื•ืกืคืจื”,
03:08
it crumbled, and then the pieces fell apart
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ื”ืชืคื•ืจืจ, ื•ื”ื—ืœืงื™ื ื”ืชืคืจืงื•
03:11
and did some damage.
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ื•ื’ืจืžื• ืœืžืขื˜ ื ื–ืงื™ื.
03:12
Now, you wouldn't want that falling on your foot or your head,
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ืœื ืชืจืฆื• ืฉื“ื‘ืจ ื›ื–ื” ื™ื™ืคื•ืœ ืขืœ ืจื’ืœื›ื
ืื• ืขืœ ืจืืฉื›ื, ื›ื™ ื”ื•ื ื™ืขืฉื” ืœื›ื ืืช ื–ื”.
03:16
because it would do that to it.
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03:17
That would be bad.
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ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืจืข.
03:19
But it won't wipe out, you know, all life on Earth, so that's fine.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืœื ื™ื›ื—ื™ื“ ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ื—ื™ื™ื
ืขืœ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื, ื›ืš ืฉื–ื” ื‘ืกื“ืจ. ืื‘ืœ ืžืชื‘ืจืจ
03:23
But it turns out, you don't need something six miles across
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ืฉืœื ืฆืจื™ืš ืžืฉื”ื• ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ 10 ืง"ืž
03:26
to do a lot of damage.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื ื–ืงื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื.
03:28
There is a median point between tiny rock and gigantic rock,
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ื™ืฉ ื ืงื•ื“ืช ื‘ื™ื ื™ื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื‘ืŸ ืงื˜ื ื˜ื ื”
ืœืกืœืข ืขืฆื•ื, ื•ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืžื›ื
03:31
and in fact, if any of you have ever been to near Winslow, Arizona,
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ื˜ื™ื™ืœ ืœื™ื“ ื•ื™ื ืกืœื•, ืืจื™ื–ื•ื ื”,
03:35
there is a crater in the desert there that is so iconic
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ื™ืฉื ื• ืžื›ืชืฉ ืฉื ื‘ืžื“ื‘ืจ ืฉื”ื•ื
ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืื™ื™ืงื•ื ื™ ืฉื”ื•ื ื ืงืจื ืžื›ืชืฉ ื”ืžื˜ืื•ืจ.
03:39
that it is actually called "Meteor Crater."
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03:41
To give you a sense of scale, this is about a mile wide.
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ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืงื ื” ืžื™ื“ื”, ื”ื•ื ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ืฉืœ ื›ืง"ืž ื•ื—ืฆื™.
03:44
If you look up at the top, that's a parking lot,
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ืื ืชืฆื™ืฆื• ืœืžืขืœื”, ื–ื”ื• ืžื’ืจืฉ ื—ื ื™ื”,
03:48
and those are recreational vehicles right there.
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ื•ืืœื• ื”ื ืงืจื•ื•ื ื™ื ืฉื.
03:51
So it's about a mile across, 600 feet deep.
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ืื– ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ื›ืง"ืž ื•ื—ืฆื™, ื‘ืขื•ืžืง 180 ืžื˜ืจื™ื.
03:54
The object that formed this was probably about 30 to 50 yards across,
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ืžื” ืฉื™ืฆืจ ืืช ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื›ื ืจืื”
ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ืฉืœ 25-45 ืžื˜ืจื™ื, ื‘ืขืจืš ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ
03:59
so roughly the size of Macky Auditorium here.
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ืฉืœ ืื•ืœื ืžืงื™ ื›ืืŸ.
04:03
It came in at speeds that were tremendous,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืชืจืกืง ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืขืฆื•ืžื”,
04:06
slammed into the ground, blew up,
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ื”ืชื ื’ืฉ ื‘ืงืจืงืข,
04:08
and exploded with the energy of roughly a 20-megaton nuclear bomb --
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ื•ื”ืชืคื•ืฆืฅ ื‘ืื•ืชื” ืื ืจื’ื™ื” ื›ืฉืœ
ืคืฆืฆื” ื’ืจืขื™ื ื™ืช ืฉืœ 20 ืžื’ื”-ื˜ื•ืŸ --
04:12
a very hefty bomb.
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ืคืฆืฆื” ืžืื•ื“ ื—ื–ืงื”.
04:13
This was 50,000 years ago,
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ื–ื” ืงืจื” ืœืคื ื™ 50,000 ืฉื ื”, ื›ืš ืฉืื•ืœื™
04:15
so it may have wiped out a few buffalo or antelope,
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ื–ื” ื”ืจื’ ื›ืžื” ืชืื•ืื™ื ืื• ืื ื˜ื™ืœื•ืคื•ืช,
04:18
or something like that out in the desert,
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ืื• ืžืฉื”ื• ื“ื•ืžื” ืฉื ื‘ืžื“ื‘ืจ,
04:21
but it probably would not have caused global devastation.
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื ืจืื” ืฉื–ื” ืœื ื”ื™ื” ื’ื•ืจื
ืœื”ืจืก ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™.
04:25
It turns out that these things don't have to hit the ground
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ืžืชื‘ืจืจ ื›ื™ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื
ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ืงืจืงืข ื›ื“ื™ ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื ื–ืงื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื.
04:28
to do a lot of damage.
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04:30
Now, in 1908, over Siberia, near the Tunguska region --
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ื‘- 1908, ืžืขืœ ืกื™ื‘ื™ืจ, ืœื™ื“
ืžื—ื•ื– ื˜ื•ื ื’ื•ืกืงื” -- ืœืžืขืŸ ืžืขืจื™ืฆื™ื• ืฉืœ
04:34
for those of you who are Dan Aykroyd fans and saw "Ghostbusters,"
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ื“ืŸ ืืงืจื•ื™ื“ ื‘ืงื”ืœ ืฉืจืื• ืืช "ืžื›ืกื—ื™ ื”ืฉื“ื™ื",
ื›ืฉื”ื•ื ืกื™ืคืจ ืขืœ ื”ืงืจืข ื”ื‘ื™ืŸ-ืžื™ืžื“ื™ ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
04:37
when he talked about the greatest cross-dimensional rift
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ืžืื– ื”ืคื™ืฆื•ืฅ ื‘ืกื™ื‘ื™ืจ ื‘1909, ืฉื ื”ื•ื
04:40
since the Siberia blast of 1909,
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04:42
where he got the date wrong, but that's OK.
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ื˜ืขื” ื‘ืชืืจื™ืš, ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื‘ืกื“ืจ. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:44
(Laughter)
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ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื‘1908. ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื—ื™ื•ืช ืขื ื–ื”.
04:45
It was 1908. That's fine. I can live with that.
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:48
(Laughter)
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04:50
Another rock came into the Earth's atmosphere
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ืกืœืข ื ื•ืกืฃ ื ื›ื ืก ืœืื˜ืžื•ืกืคืจื” ืฉืœ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื
04:53
and this one blew up above the ground,
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ื•ื”ื•ื ื”ืชืคื•ืฆืฅ ืžืขืœ ื”ืงืจืงืข,
04:55
several miles up above the surface of the Earth.
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ื›ืžื” ืง"ืž ืžืขืœ ืคื ื™-ื”ืฉื˜ื— ืฉืœ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื.
04:57
The heat from the explosion set fire to the forest below it,
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ื”ื—ื•ื ืฉืœ ื”ืคื™ืฆื•ืฅ ื”ืฆื™ืช ืฉืจื™ืคื”
ื‘ื™ืขืจ ืžืชื—ืชื™ื• ื•ืื– ื’ืœ ื”ื”ื“ืฃ
05:02
and then the shock wave came down and knocked down trees
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ื”ืชืคืฉื˜ ืœืžื˜ื” ื•ื”ืคื™ืœ ืขืฆื™ื ื‘ืฉื˜ื—
05:06
for hundreds of square miles.
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ืฉืœ ืžืื•ืช ืงืž"ืจ, ืื•ืงื™ื™?
05:08
This did a huge amount of damage.
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ื”ื•ื ื’ืจื ืœื”ืจืก ืขืฆื•ื.
05:10
And again, this was a rock probably roughly the size
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ื•ืฉื•ื‘, ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ืกืœืข ื›ื ืจืื” ื‘ืขืจืš
05:13
of this auditorium that we're sitting in.
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ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ ื”ืื•ืœื ื‘ื• ืื ื• ื™ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื.
05:15
In Meteor Crater, it was made of metal,
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ื‘ืžื›ืชืฉ ื”ืžื˜ืื•ืจ, ื”ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ืขืฉื•ื™ ืžืžืชื›ืช,
05:17
and metal is much tougher, so it made it to the ground.
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ื•ืžืชื›ืช ืงืฉื” ื‘ื”ืจื‘ื”, ื›ืš ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ื’ื™ืข
ืœืงืจืงืข.
05:20
The one over Tunguska was probably made of rock,
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ื–ื” ืžืขืœ ื˜ื•ื ื’ื•ืกืงื” ื”ื™ื” ืขืฉื•ื™ ื›ื ืจืื”
05:22
and that's much more crumbly, so it blew up in the air.
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ืžืื‘ืŸ, ืฉืžืชืคื•ืจืจืช ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ,
05:25
Either way, these are tremendous explosions -- 20 megatons.
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ืชืคื•ืฆืฅ ื‘ืื•ื•ื™ืจ. ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงืจื”, ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ
ื‘ืคื™ืฆื•ืฆื™ื ืขืฆื•ืžื™ื, 20 ืžื’ื”-ื˜ื•ืŸ.
05:30
Now, when these things blow up,
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ื›ืฉื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ืžืชืคื•ืฆืฆื™ื, ื”ื ืœื
05:32
they're not going to do global ecological damage.
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ื™ื’ืจืžื• ืœื ื–ืง ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™.
05:35
They're not going to do something like the dinosaur killer did.
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ื”ื ืœื ื™ืขืฉื• ืžืฉื”ื• ื“ื•ืžื”
ืœื–ื” ืฉื”ื›ื—ื™ื“ ืืช ื”ื“ื™ื ื•ื–ืื•ืจื™ื.
05:39
They're just not big enough.
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ื”ื ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ืžืกืคื™ืง.
05:40
But they will do global economic damage,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ื›ืŸ ื™ื’ืจืžื• ืœื ื–ืง ื›ืœื›ืœื™ ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™,
05:43
because they don't have to hit, necessarily,
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ื ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœืคื’ื•ืข, ื‘ื”ื›ืจื—,
05:45
to do this kind of damage.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื ื–ืง ื›ื–ื”.
05:47
They don't have to do global devastation.
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ื”ื ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื”ืจืก ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™.
05:49
If one of these things were to hit pretty much anywhere,
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ืื ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ื™ืคื’ืข
ื›ืžืขื˜ ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงื•ื, ื”ื•ื ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื‘ื”ืœื”.
05:52
it would cause a panic.
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05:53
But if it came over a city, an important city --
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื”ื•ื ื™ืชืจืกืง ืขืœ ืขื™ืจ ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” --
ืœื ืฉืขื™ืจ ืื—ืช ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” ืžื”ืื—ืจืช,
05:56
not that any city is more important than others,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื• ืชืœื•ื™ื™ื ื‘ื›ืžื” ืžื”ืŸ ื™ื•ืชืจ
05:58
but some of them we depend on more on the global economic basis --
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ื‘ืจืžื” ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช ื”ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ืช -- ื•ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื’ืจื•ื
06:01
that could do a huge amount of damage to us as a civilization.
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ื ื–ืงื™ื ื›ื‘ื“ื™ื ืœื ื•
ื›ืฆื™ื‘ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
06:07
So, now that I've scared the crap out of you --
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ืื– ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื›ืฉื”ืคื—ื“ืชื™ ืืชื›ื ืœืžื•ื•ืช...
06:10
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
06:11
what can we do about this?
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ืžื” ืืคืฉืจ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื–ื”? ืื•ืงื™ื™?
06:13
This is a potential threat.
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ื–ื”ื• ืื™ื•ื ืคื•ื˜ื ืฆื™ืืœื™.
06:15
Let me note that we have not had a giant impact like the dinosaur killer
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ืจืง ืืฆื™ื™ืŸ ืฉืœื ื—ื•ื•ื™ื ื•
ืคื’ื™ืขื” ืขืฆื•ืžื” ื›ืžื• ื–ื• ืฉื”ื›ื—ื™ื“ื” ืืช ื”ื“ื™ื ื•ื–ืื•ืจื™ื
06:20
for 65 million years.
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ื›ื‘ืจ 65 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืฉื ื”. ื”ืŸ ืžืื•ื“ ื ื“ื™ืจื•ืช.
06:21
They're very rare.
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06:23
The smaller ones happen more often,
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ื”ืงื˜ื ื•ืช ืงื•ืจื•ืช ืœืขืชื™ื ืชื›ื•ืคื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ,
06:25
but probably on the order of a millennium,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืขืจืš ื›ืœ ืžื™ืœื ื™ื•ื,
06:27
every few centuries or every few thousand years.
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ื›ืœ ื›ืžื” ืžืื•ืช ืื• ืืœืคื™ ืฉื ื™ื,
ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื“ื‘ืจ ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื ืœื•.
06:31
But it's still something to be aware of.
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06:33
Well, what do we do about them?
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืžื” ืืคืฉืจ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืœื’ื‘ื™ื”ื?
06:34
The first thing we have to do is find them.
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ืจืืฉื™ืช, ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืžืฆื•ื ืื•ืชื.
06:36
This is an image of an asteroid that passed us in 2009.
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ื–ื”ื• ืฆื™ืœื•ื ืฉืœ ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ืฉืขื‘ืจ
ืื•ืชื ื• ื‘2009.
06:41
It's right here.
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ื”ื•ื ืžืžืฉ ื›ืืŸ.
06:42
But you can see that it's extremely faint.
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ืื‘ืœ ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืฉื”ื•ื ืžืื•ื“ ืขืžื•ื.
06:45
I don't know if you can see that in the back row.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ื‘ื˜ื•ื— ืื ืืคืฉืจ ืœืจืื•ืช ืื•ืชื•
06:47
These are just stars.
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ื‘ืฉื•ืจื•ืช ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช. ืืœื• ื”ื ืคืฉื•ื˜ ื›ื•ื›ื‘ื™ื.
06:49
This is a rock that was about 30 yards across,
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ื–ื”ื• ืกืœืข ื‘ืขืจืš ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ 27 ืžื˜ืจื™ื,
06:51
so roughly the size of the ones that blew up over Tunguska
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ื‘ืขืจืš ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ ื–ื” ืฉื”ืชืคื•ืฆืฅ
ืžืขืœ ื˜ื•ื ื’ื•ืกืงื” ื•ื–ื” ืฉืคื’ืข ื‘ืืจื™ื–ื•ื ื” ืœืคื ื™ 50,000 ืฉื ื™ื.
06:54
and hit Arizona 50,000 years ago.
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06:56
These things are faint.
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ื”ื ืขืžื•ืžื™ื.
06:57
They're hard to see, and the sky is really big.
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ืงืฉื” ืœืจืื•ืช ืื•ืชื, ื•ื”ืฉืžื™ื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ืžืื•ื“.
07:00
We have to find these things first.
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ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืžืฆื•ื ืืช ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื•.
07:02
Well, the good news is, we're looking for them.
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ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื”ืŸ ืฉืžื—ืคืฉื™ื ืื•ืชื.
07:04
NASA has devoted money to this;
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ื ืืก"ื ื”ืงื“ื™ืฉื” ื›ืกืฃ ืœื›ืš.
07:06
the National Science Foundation and other countries
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ื”ืงืจืŸ ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ืช ืœืžื“ืข,
ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืื—ืจื•ืช ืžืื•ื“ ืžืขื•ื ื™ื™ื ื•ืช ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช.
07:09
are interested in doing this.
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07:10
We're building telescopes that are looking for the threat.
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ืื ื• ื‘ื•ื ื™ื ื˜ืœืกืงื•ืคื™ื ืฉืžื—ืคืฉื™ื
ืื—ืจ ื”ืื™ื•ืžื™ื. ื–ื”ื• ืฆืขื“ ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœ,
07:13
That's a great first step. But what's the second step?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื”ื• ื”ืฆืขื“ ื”ืฉื ื™? ื”ืฆืขื“ ื”ืฉื ื™
07:16
The second step is if we see one heading toward us, we have to stop it.
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืื ื ืจืื” ืื—ื“ ืžืชืงืจื‘ ืœืขื‘ืจื ื•,
ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืขืฆื•ืจ ืื•ืชื•. ืžื” ื ืขืฉื”?
07:19
What do we do?
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07:20
You've probably heard about the asteroid Apophis.
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ื›ื ืจืื” ืฉืžืขืชื ืขืœ ื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“
ืืคื•ืคื™ืก. ืื ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืœื, ืืชื ืขื•ื“ ืชืฉืžืขื•.
07:23
If you haven't yet, you will.
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07:25
If you've heard about the Mayan 2012 apocalypse,
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ืื ืฉืžืขืชื ืขืœ ื”ืืคื•ืงืœื™ืคืกื” ืฉืœ ื‘ื ื™ ื”ืžืื™ื”
07:27
you're going to hear about Apophis,
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ื‘2012, ืืชื ืชืฉืžืขื• ืขืœ ืืคื•ืคื™ืก,
07:29
because you're keyed in to all the doomsday networks, anyway.
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉืืชื ืžื—ื•ื‘ืจื™ื ืœื›ืœ ืจืฉืชื•ืช
ื™ื•ื ื”ื“ื™ืŸ ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงืจื”.
07:33
(Laughter)
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07:34
Apophis is an asteroid that was discovered in 2004.
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ืืคื•ืคื™ืก ื”ื™ื ื• ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ืฉื ืชื’ืœื” ื‘2004.
07:37
It's roughly 250 [meters] across, so it's pretty big --
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ื”ื•ื ื‘ืขืจืš ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ืฉืœ 230 ืžื˜ืจื™ื, ื›ืš ืฉื”ื•ื
ื“ื™ ื’ื“ื•ืœ -- ืขื ืง, ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื,
07:41
bigger than a football stadium.
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ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืžื’ืจืฉ ืคื•ื˜ื‘ื•ืœ -- ื•ื”ื•ื ืขื•ืžื“
07:43
And it's going to pass by the Earth in April of 2029.
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ืœื—ืœื•ืฃ ืขืœ ืคื ื™ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื ื‘ืืคืจื™ืœ 2029.
07:47
And it's going to pass us so close
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื—ืœื•ืฃ ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืงืจื•ื‘
07:49
that it's actually going to come underneath our weather satellites.
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ืฉื”ื•ื ื™ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืžืชื—ืช
ืœืœื•ื•ื™ื ื™ ื—ื™ื–ื•ื™ ืžื–ื’ ื”ืื•ื•ื™ืจ ืฉืœื ื•.
07:52
The Earth's gravity is going to bend the orbit of this thing so much
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ื›ื•ื— ื”ื›ื‘ื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื ื™ืขืงื ืืช ื”ืžืกืœื•ืœ
ืฉืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื‘ืžื™ื“ื” ื›ื” ืจื‘ื” ื›ืš ืฉืื ื–ื” ื ื›ื•ืŸ,
07:56
that if it's just right,
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07:58
if it passes through this region of space,
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ืื ื”ื•ื ื™ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื“ืจืš ื”ืื™ื–ื•ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ,
08:00
this kidney-bean-shaped region called the keyhole,
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ื”ืื™ื–ื•ืจ ื“ืžื•ื™-ื”ื›ืœื™ื” ืฉื ืงืจื
08:03
the Earth's gravity will bend it just enough that seven years later,
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"ื—ื•ืจ-ื”ืžืคืชื—", ื›ื•ื— ื”ื›ื‘ื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื ื™ืขืงื ืื•ืชื•
ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ื›ืš ืฉืฉื‘ืข ืฉื ื™ื ืœืื—ืจ ืžื›ืŸ
08:07
on April 13 -- which is a Friday, I'll note -- in the year 2036 --
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ื‘13 ื‘ืืคืจื™ืœ, ื™ื•ื ืฉื™ืฉื™, ืขืœื™ ืœืฆื™ื™ืŸ,
ื‘ืฉื ืช 2036... (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
08:11
(Laughter)
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08:12
you can't plan that kind of stuff --
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-- ืื™ ืืคืฉืจ ืœืชื›ื ืŸ ื›ืืœื• ื“ื‘ืจื™ื --
08:14
(Laughter)
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08:15
Apophis is going to hit us.
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ืืคื•ืคื™ืก ืขื•ืžื“ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ื ื•. ื•ื”ื•ื
08:16
And it's 250 meters across, so it would do unbelievable damage.
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ื‘ืจื•ื—ื‘ ืฉืœ 250 ืžื˜ืจื™ื, ื›ืš ืฉื”ื•ื ื™ื’ืจื•ื
ืœื ื–ืง ืฉืœื ื™ื™ืืžืŸ.
08:21
The good news is that the odds of it actually passing through this keyhole
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ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื”ืŸ ืฉื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืฉื”ื•ื
ื‘ืืžืช ื™ื—ืœื•ืฃ ื“ืจืš "ื—ื•ืจ-ื”ืžืคืชื—" ื”ื–ื”
08:24
and hitting us next go-around are one in a million, roughly --
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ื•ื™ืคื’ืข ื‘ื ื• ื‘ืกื™ื‘ื•ื‘ ื”ื‘ื ืฉืœื• ื”ื•ื ืื—ื“ ืœืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ,
08:27
very, very low odds.
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ื‘ืขืจืš -- ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื ืžืื•ื“ ื ืžื•ื›ื™ื, ื›ืš ืฉืื ื™,
08:29
So I personally am not lying awake at night worrying about this at all.
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ืื™ืฉื™ืช, ืœื ืฉื•ื›ื‘ ืขืจ ื‘ืœื™ืœื” ื•ื“ื•ืื’ ื‘ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ.
ืื™ื ื™ ืกื‘ื•ืจ ืฉืืคื•ืคื™ืก ืžื”ื•ื•ื” ื‘ืขื™ื”.
08:32
I don't think Apophis is a problem.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืืคื•ืคื™ืก ื”ื™ื ื• ื‘ืจื›ื”,
08:34
In fact, Apophis is a blessing in disguise,
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ืขื™ืจ ืื•ืชื ื• ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืกื›ื ื•ืช
08:36
because it woke us up to the dangers of these things.
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ื”ื˜ืžื•ื ื•ืช ื‘ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื•.
08:39
This thing was discovered just a few years ago
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื ืชื’ืœื” ืจืง ืœืคื ื™ ืžืกืคืจ ืฉื ื™ื
08:41
and could hit us a few years from now.
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ื•ืขืœื•ืœ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ื ื• ืขื•ื“ ืžืกืคืจ ืฉื ื™ื.
08:43
It won't, but it gives us a chance to study these kinds of asteroids.
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ื”ื•ื ืœื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ืžืืคืฉืจ ืœื ื• ืœืœืžื•ื“
ืขืœ ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ื™ื ืžื”ืกื•ื’ ื”ื–ื”. ืœื ื”ื‘ื ื•
08:46
We didn't really necessarily understand these keyholes, and now we do,
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ื‘ื”ื›ืจื— ืืช "ื—ื•ืจื™-ื”ืžืคืชื—" ื”ืœืœื•,
ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืื ื• ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื ื•ืžืชื‘ืจืจ
08:50
and it turns out that's really important,
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ืฉื–ื” ืžืื•ื“ ื—ืฉื•ื‘, ื›ื™ ืื™ืš
08:52
because how do you stop an asteroid like this?
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ืขื•ืฆืจื™ื ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ืฉื›ื–ื”?
08:55
Well, let me ask you:
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ื‘ืจืฆื•ื ื™ ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืืชื›ื, ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ืื ืืชื”
08:56
What happens if you're standing in the road and a car's headed for you?
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ืขื•ืžื“ ื‘ืืžืฆืข ื”ื›ื‘ื™ืฉ ื•ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช
ืžืชืงื“ืžืช ืœืขื‘ืจืš? ืžื” ืืชื” ืขื•ืฉื”? ืืช ื–ื”.
09:00
What do you do?
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09:01
You do this. Right? Move, and the car goes past you.
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ื ื›ื•ืŸ? ืืชื” ื–ื–. ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ื—ื•ืœืคืช ืขืœ ืคื ื™ืš.
09:03
But we can't move the Earth, at least not easily,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื• ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื–ื™ื– ืืช ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื, ืœืคื—ื•ืช
ืœื ื‘ืงืœื•ืช, ืื‘ืœ ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื–ื™ื– ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ืงื˜ืŸ.
09:06
but we can move a small asteroid.
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09:07
And it turns out, we've even done it.
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ื•ืžืชื‘ืจืจ ืฉืืคื™ืœื• ืขืฉื™ื ื• ื–ืืช.
ื‘ืฉื ืช 2005, ื ืืก"ื ืฉื™ื’ืจื” ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช
09:10
In the year 2005, NASA launched a probe called Deep Impact,
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ืฉื ืงืจืืช "ืคื’ื™ืขื” ืขืžื•ืงื”", ืฉื”ืชื ื’ืฉื” --
09:14
which slammed a piece of itself into the nucleus of a comet.
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ืฉื”ื˜ื™ื—ื” ื—ืœืง ืžืขืฆืžื” ืœืชื•ืš ื’ืจืขื™ืŸ ื”ืฉื‘ื™ื˜.
09:18
Comets are very much like asteroids.
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ืฉื‘ื™ื˜ื™ื ื“ื•ืžื™ื ืžืื•ื“ ืœืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ื™ื.
09:20
The purpose wasn't to push it out of the way;
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ื”ืžื˜ืจื” ืœื ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืœื”ืกื™ื˜ ืื•ืชื• ืžื“ืจื›ื•.
09:22
the purpose was to make a crater to excavate the material
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ื”ืžื˜ืจื” ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืžื›ืชืฉ ื›ื“ื™ ืœื—ืฉื•ืฃ
ืืช ื”ื—ื•ืžืจ ื•ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืžื” ื™ืฉ ืžืชื—ืช
09:25
and see what was underneath the surface of this comet,
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ืœืคื ื™-ื”ืฉื˜ื— ืฉืœ ื”ืฉื‘ื™ื˜, ืขืœื™ื• ืœืžื“ื ื•
09:28
which we learned quite a bit about.
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ื“ื™ ื”ืจื‘ื”.
09:29
We did move the comet a little tiny bit --
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ื‘ืืžืช ื”ืกื˜ื ื• ืืช ื”ืฉื‘ื™ื˜ ื‘ืžืขื˜,
09:32
not very much, but that wasn't the point.
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ืœื ื‘ื”ืจื‘ื”, ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืœื ื”ื™ื” ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ.
09:34
However, think about this:
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ืื•ืœื, ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื›ืš.
09:36
This thing is orbiting the Sun at 10, 20 miles per second.
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ืžืงื™ืฃ ืืช ื”ืฉืžืฉ ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช
15 ืง"ืž ืœืฉื ื™ื™ื”, 30 ืง"ืž ืœืฉื ื™ื™ื”.
09:40
We shot a space probe at it and hit it, OK?
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ื™ืจื™ื ื• ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช-ื—ืœืœ ืขืœื™ื• ื•ืคื’ืขื ื• ื‘ื•. ืื•ืงื™ื™?
ืฉืขืจื• ื‘ื ืคืฉื›ื ื›ืžื” ื–ื” ืงืฉื”, ื•ืขืฉื™ื ื• ื–ืืช.
09:43
Imagine how hard that must be, and we did it.
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09:45
That means we can do it again.
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ, ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช ืฉื•ื‘.
09:47
If we see an asteroid that's coming toward us, headed right for us,
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ืื ื ืฆื˜ืจืš, ืื ื ื’ืœื” ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ืฉืžื’ื™ืข
ืœืขื‘ืจื ื•, ื•ื”ื•ื ืžืชืงื“ื ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืืœื™ื ื•,
09:51
and we have two years to go?
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ื•ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื ืขื“ ืื–, ื‘ื•ื! ื ืคื’ืข ื‘ื•.
09:53
Boom! We hit it.
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09:54
You know, if you watch the movies --
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ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื ืกื•ืช -- ืื ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื
09:57
(Laughter)
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ืกืจื˜ื™ื, ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ
09:58
you might think:
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09:59
Why don't we use a nuclear weapon?
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ืœืžื” ืฉืœื ื ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื ืฉืง ื’ืจืขื™ื ื™?
10:01
Well, you can try that, but the problem is timing.
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ืืคืฉืจ ืœื ืกื•ืช, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ืชื–ืžื•ืŸ
10:03
Shoot a nuclear weapon at this thing,
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ืื ื ื™ืจื” ื ืฉืง ื’ืจืขื™ื ื™ ืขืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื”,
10:05
you have to blow it up within a few milliseconds of tolerance,
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ื ืฆื˜ืจืš ืœืคื•ืฆืฅ ืื•ืชื• ืชื•ืš ื›ืžื” ืืœืคื™ื•ืช ืฉื ื™ื™ื”
ืฉืœ ืกื‘ืœื ื•ืช, ืื—ืจืช ื ืคืกืคืก ืื•ืชื•.
10:08
or else you'll miss it.
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10:09
And there are a lot of other problems with that; it's very hard to do.
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ื•ื™ืฉื ืŸ ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืจื‘ื•ืช ื ื•ืกืคื•ืช
ืขื ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื”. ื–ื” ืงืฉื” ืžืื•ื“ ืœื‘ื™ืฆื•ืข.
10:13
But just hitting something? That's pretty easy.
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ืื‘ืœ ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ืžืฉื”ื•? ื–ื” ื“ื™ ืงืœ.
10:15
I think even NASA can do that, and proved that they can.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืืคื™ืœื• ื ืืก"ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืืช ื–ื”.
ื•ื”ื ื”ื•ื›ื™ื—ื• ืฉื”ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
10:18
(Laughter)
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10:19
The problem is, if you hit this asteroid, you've changed the orbit,
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ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ื, ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ืื ืืชื” ืคื•ื’ืข
ื‘ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ื•ืืชื” ืžืฉื ื” ืืช ื”ืžืกืœื•ืœ,
10:22
you measure the orbit,
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10:23
then you find out, oh yeah, we just pushed it into a keyhole,
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ื•ืืชื” ืžื•ื“ื“ ืืช ื”ืžืกืœื•ืœ ื•ืžื’ืœื”,
ืฉื‘ื˜ืขื•ืช ื”ืกื˜ื ื• ืื•ืชื• ืœืชื•ืš "ื—ื•ืจ-ืžืคืชื—",
10:26
and now it's going to hit us in three years.
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ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ื•ื ื™ืคื’ืข ื‘ื ื• ืขื•ื“ 3 ืฉื ื™ื.
10:28
Well, my opinion is: fine!
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ืœื“ืขืชื™ ื–ื” ื‘ืกื“ืจ. ืื•ืงื™ื™?
10:30
It's not hitting us in six months --
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ื”ื•ื ืœื ื™ืคื’ืข ื‘ื ื• ืขื•ื“ ืฉื™ืฉื” ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื. ื–ื” ื˜ื•ื‘.
10:32
that's good.
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10:33
Now we have three years to do something else.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืฉืœื•ืฉ ืฉื ื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ.
10:36
And you can hit it again.
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ื•ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ื• ืฉื•ื‘. ื–ื” ื“ื™
10:38
That's kind of ham-fisted;
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ืžืจื•ืฉืœ. ืืชื” ืขืฉื•ื™ ืœื”ืกื™ื˜ ืื•ืชื• ืœืชื•ืš "ื—ื•ืจ-ืžืคืชื—"
10:39
you might just push it into a third keyhole or whatever,
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ืฉืœื™ืฉื™ ืื• ืžืฉื”ื•, ืื– ืืชื” ืœื ืขื•ืฉื” ืืช ื–ื”.
10:42
so you don't do that.
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ื•ื–ื” ื”ื—ืœืง ืฉืื ื™ ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืื•ื”ื‘.
10:43
And this is the part --
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10:45
it's the part I just love.
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10:46
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
10:48
After the big macho "Grr ... bam! We're gonna hit this thing in the face,"
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ืื—ืจื™ ืฉื ืชื ื”ื’ ื›ื’ื‘ืจื™ื "ืจืจืจ ื‘ื•ื! ืื ื—ื ื•
ื ืคื•ืฆืฅ ืืช ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ืœื—ืชื™ื›ื•ืช,"
ืื– ืื ื• ืžื›ื ื™ืกื™ื ืืช ื›ืคืคื•ืช ื”ืžืฉื™.
10:53
then we bring in the velvet gloves.
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
10:56
(Laughter)
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10:58
There's a group of scientists and engineers and astronauts,
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ื™ืฉื ื” ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืฉืœ ืžื“ืขื ื™ื, ืžื”ื ื“ืกื™ื
ื•ืืกื˜ืจื•ื ืื•ื˜ื™ื ื•ื”ื ืงื•ืจืื™ื ืœืขืฆืžื
11:01
and they call themselves The B612 Foundation.
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ืงืจืŸ ื”"B612". ืœืืœื• ืžื›ื
11:03
For those of you who've read "The Little Prince,"
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ืฉืงืจืื• ืืช "ื”ื ืกื™ืš ื”ืงื˜ืŸ,"
11:05
you understand that reference, I hope --
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ืืชื ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื ืืช ื”ืงื™ืฉื•ืจ, ืื ื™ ืžืงื•ื•ื”. ื”ื ืกื™ืš ื”ืงื˜ืŸ
11:07
the little prince lived on an asteroid called B612.
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ืฉื—ื™ ืขืœ ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“, ืฉื ืงืจื B612.
11:10
These are smart guys -- men and women -- astronauts, like I said, engineers.
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืื ืฉื™ื ื—ื›ืžื™ื -- ื’ื‘ืจื™ื ื•ื ืฉื™ื --
ืืกื˜ืจื•ื ืื•ื˜ื™ื, ื›ืคื™ ืฉืืžืจืชื™, ืžื”ื ื“ืกื™ื.
11:14
Rusty Schweickart, who was an Apollo 9 astronaut, is on this.
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ืจืืกื˜ื™ ืฉื•ื•ื™ืงืืจื˜, ืืกื˜ืจื•ื ืื•ื˜ ื‘ื—ืœืœื™ืช
ืืคื•ืœื• 9, ื ืžืฆื ืฉื. ื“ืŸ ื“ื•ืจื“ื”, ื™ื“ื™ื“ื™
11:17
Dan Durda, my friend who made this image,
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ืฉื™ืฆืจ ืืช ื”ืฆื™ืœื•ื ื”ื–ื”, ืขื•ื‘ื“ ื›ืืŸ
11:19
works here at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, on Walnut Street.
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ื‘ืžื›ื•ืŸ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ "ืกืื•ืช'ื•ื•ืกื˜" ื‘ื‘ื•ืœื“ืจ,
ื‘ืจื—ื•ื‘ ื•ื•ืœื ืื˜. ื”ื•ื ื™ืฆืจ ืืช ื”ืฆื™ืœื•ื ืœืžืขื ื ื•,
11:23
He created this image for this.
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ื ื•ืžื™ื, ืœืžืขืฉื”
11:25
He's actually one of the astronomers who works for them.
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ืฉืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœื. ืื ื ื’ืœื” ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“
11:27
If we see an asteroid that's going to hit the Earth
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ืฉืขื•ืžื“ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ื›ื“ื•ื”"ื ื•ื™ืฉ ืœื ื•
11:30
and we have enough time,
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ืžืกืคื™ืง ื–ืžืŸ, ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืกื™ื˜ ืื•ืชื•
11:32
we can hit it to move it into a better orbit.
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ืœืžืกืœื•ืœ ืขื“ื™ืฃ. ืื‘ืœ ืื– ืื ื• ืฉื•ืœื—ื™ื
11:34
But then what we do is launch a probe that has to weigh a ton or two.
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ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช ืฉืฉื•ืงืœืช ื˜ื•ืŸ ืื• ืฉื ื™ื™ื.
ื”ื™ื ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ืช ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืขืฆื•ืžื” -- ื›ืžื” ื˜ื•ื ื•ืช,
11:39
It doesn't have to be huge -- a couple of tons, not that big --
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ืœื ื›ื–ื• ื’ื“ื•ืœื” -- ื•ืžื—ื ื™ื ืื•ืชื” ืœื™ื“ ื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“.
11:42
and you park it near the asteroid.
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11:44
You don't land on it, because these things are tumbling end over end.
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ืœื ื ื•ื—ืชื™ื ืขืœื™ื•, ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื•
ืžืกืชื•ื‘ื‘ื™ื ืœืœื ื”ืคืกืง. ืงืฉื” ืœืžื“ื™ ืœื ื—ื•ืช ืขืœื™ื”ื.
11:47
It's very hard to land on them.
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11:48
Instead you get near it.
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ื‘ืžืงื•ื, ืžื’ื™ืขื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ ืืœื™ื”ื.
11:50
The gravity of the asteroid pulls on the probe,
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ื”ื›ื‘ื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“ ืžื•ืฉื›ืช ืืช ื”ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช,
11:52
and the probe has a couple of tons of mass.
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ื•ืœื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช ื™ืฉื ืŸ ืžืกืคืจ ื˜ื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžืกื”.
11:54
It has a little tiny bit of gravity,
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ื™ืฉ ืœื” ืžืขื˜ ื›ื‘ื™ื“ื”, ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืžืกืคื™ืง
11:56
but it's enough that it can pull the asteroid,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืžืฉื•ืš ืืช ื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ืื™ื“, ื•ื™ืฉื ืŸ
11:59
and you have your rocket set up --
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ืจืงื˜ื•ืช ืžื•ื›ื ื•ืช, ื›ืš ืฉืืคืฉืจ -- ื‘ืงื•ืฉื™ ื ื™ืชืŸ
12:01
you can barely see it here, but there's rocket plumes --
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ืœืจืื•ืช ื–ืืช ื›ืืŸ, ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉื ื ืฉื•ื‘ืœื™ ืจืงื˜ื•ืช --
ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ, ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ืžื—ื•ื‘ืจื™ื ืข"ื™
12:04
and these guys are connected by their own gravity,
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ื”ื›ื‘ื™ื“ื” ืฉืœื”ื, ื•ืื ื ื–ื™ื– ืืช ื”ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช
12:07
and if you move the probe very slowly -- very, very gently,
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ืžืื•ื“ ืœืื˜ ื•ื‘ืขื“ื™ื ื•ืช, ื ื•ื›ืœ ื‘ืงืœื•ืช ืจื‘ื”
12:10
you can very easily finesse that rock into a safe orbit.
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"ืœื”ืฉื—ื™ืœ" ืืช ื”ืกืœืข ื”ื–ื” ืœืžืกืœื•ืœ ื‘ื˜ื•ื—.
ื ื™ืชืŸ ืืคื™ืœื• ืœื”ื›ื ื™ืกื• ืœืžืกืœื•ืœ ืžืกื‘ื™ื‘ ืœื›ื“ื•ื”"ื
12:16
You can even put in orbit around the Earth where we could mine it,
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ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ืฉื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ืฉื’ื™ื— ืขืœื™ื•, ืืš ื–ื”
12:19
although that's a whole other thing; I won't go into that.
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ื“ื‘ืจ ืื—ืจ ืœื’ืžืจื™. ืื ื™ ืœื ืื›ื ืก ืœื–ื”.
(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
12:22
(Laughter)
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12:23
But we'd be rich!
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื• ื ืชืขืฉืจ!
12:24
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
12:30
So think about this, right?
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ืื– ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื–ื”, ืื•ืงื™ื™?
ื™ืฉื ื ืกืœืขื™-ืขื ืง ืžืชืขื•ืคืคื™ื ืฉื ื‘ื—ื•ืฅ,
12:33
There are these giant rocks flying out there, and they're hitting us,
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ื•ื”ื ืคื•ื’ืขื™ื ื‘ื ื•, ื•ื”ื ื’ื•ืจืžื™ื
12:36
and they're doing damage to us.
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ืœื ื• ื ื–ืงื™ื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื‘ื ื• ื›ื™ืฆื“ ืœืขืฉื•ืช
12:37
But we've figured out how to do this,
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ื–ืืช, ื•ื”ื›ืœ ื ืžืฆื ื‘ืžืงื•ืžื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช.
12:39
and all the pieces are in place to do this.
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12:41
We have astronomers with telescopes, looking for them.
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ื™ืฉื ื ืืกื˜ืจื•ื ื•ืžื™ื ืฉืžื—ืคืฉื™ื ืื•ืชื
ื‘ืขื–ืจืช ื˜ืœืกืงื•ืคื™ื. ื™ืฉื ื ืื ืฉื™ื ื—ื›ืžื™ื,
12:45
We have very, very smart people,
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ืžืื•ื“ ื—ื›ืžื™ื, ืฉืžื•ื“ืื’ื™ื
12:47
who are concerned about this and figuring out how to fix the problem,
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ื•ืžืคืขื ื—ื™ื ื›ื™ืฆื“ ืžืชืงื ื™ื
ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”, ื•ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช.
12:50
and we have the technology to do this.
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12:52
This probe actually can't use chemical rockets.
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ื”ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช ื”ื–ื• ืื™ื ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืจืงื˜ื•ืช ื›ื™ืžื™ื•ืช.
12:54
Chemical rockets provide too much thrust, too much push.
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ืจืงื˜ื•ืช ื›ื™ืžื™ื•ืช ืžืกืคืงื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™ ื“ื—ืฃ, ื™ื•ืชืจ
ืžื“ื™ ื“ื—ื™ืคื”. ื”ื’ืฉื•ืฉื™ืช ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืชืขื•ืฃ ืจื—ื•ืง.
12:57
The probe would just shoot away.
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ื”ืžืฆืื ื• ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื ืงืจื "ืžื ื•ืข ื™ื•ื ื™ื",
12:59
We invented something called an ion drive,
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ืฉื”ื•ื ืžื ื•ืข ื‘ืขืœ ื“ื—ืฃ ืžืื•ื“ ืžืื•ื“ ื ืžื•ืš.
13:01
which is a very, very, very low-thrust engine.
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13:03
It generates the force a piece of paper would have on your hand --
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ื”ื•ื ืžื™ื™ืฆืจ ืืช ื”ื›ื•ื— ืฉื ื™ื™ืจ ืžืคืขื™ืœ
ืขืœ ื”ื™ื“ ืฉืœื ื•, ืžืื•ื“ ื—ืœืฉ,
13:07
incredibly light, but it can run for months and years,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืคืขื•ืœ ืœืžืฉืš ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ื•ืฉื ื™ื,
ื•ืœืกืคืง ืืช ื”ื“ื—ื™ืคื” ื”ืขื“ื™ื ื” ื”ื–ื•.
13:11
providing that very gentle push.
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13:13
If anybody here is a fan of the original "Star Trek,"
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ืื ื™ืฉื ื ื›ืืŸ ืžืขืจื™ืฆื™ื ืฉืœ "ืžืกืข ื‘ื™ืŸ ื›ื•ื›ื‘ื™ื" ื”ืžืงื•ืจื™ืช,
ื”ื ืจืฆื• ื‘ื—ืœืœื™ืช ื—ื™ื™ื–ืจื™ืช ื‘ืขืœืช
13:16
they ran across an alien ship that had an ion drive,
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"ืžื ื•ืข ื™ื•ื ื™ื", ื•ืกืคื•ืง ืืžืจ,
13:18
and Spock said, "They're very technically sophisticated.
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"ื”ื ื‘ืขืœื™ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืžืื•ื“ ืžืชื•ื—ื›ืžืช.
13:21
They're a hundred years ahead of us with this drive."
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ื”ื ืžืื” ืฉื ื™ื ืœืคื ื™ื ื• ืขื ื”ืžื ื•ืข ื”ื–ื”"
ื›ืŸ, ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• "ืžื ื•ืข ื™ื•ื ื™ื" ืขื›ืฉื™ื•. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
13:24
Yeah, we have an ion drive now.
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13:25
We don't have the Enterprise, but we've got an ion drive now.
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ืื™ืŸ ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ืื ื˜ืจืคืจื™ื™ื–, ืื‘ืœ
ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• "ืžื ื•ืข ื™ื•ื ื™ื" ืขื›ืฉื™ื•.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
13:30
(Applause)
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13:32
Spock.
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ืกืคื•ืง.
13:34
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
13:36
So ...
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ืื–...
13:39
That's the difference --
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ื–ื” ื”ื”ื‘ื“ืœ
13:40
that's the difference between us and the dinosaurs.
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ื‘ื™ื ื™ื ื• ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื“ื™ื ื•ื–ืื•ืจื™ื.
13:43
This happened to them.
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ื–ื” ืงืจื” ืœื”ื.
13:45
It doesn't have to happen to us.
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ื–ื” ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ ืœืงืจื•ืช ืœื ื•.
13:47
The difference between the dinosaurs and us
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ื”ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื‘ื™ื ื™ื ื• ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื“ื™ื ื•ื–ืื•ืจื™ื
13:50
is that we have a space program
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ื”ื•ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืชื•ื›ื ื™ืช ื—ืœืœ
ื•ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฆื‘ื™ืข
13:53
and we can vote,
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13:54
and so we can change our future.
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ื•ื›ืš ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“ ืฉืœื ื•.
13:57
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
13:58
We have the ability to change our future.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“ ืฉืœื ื•.
14:00
Sixty-five million years from now,
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65 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืฉื ื” ืžื”ื™ื•ื,
14:02
we don't have to have our bones collecting dust in a museum.
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ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ื ืœื›ืš ืฉืขืฆืžื•ืชื™ื ื•
ืœื ื™ืขืœื• ืื‘ืง ื‘ืžื•ื–ื™ืื•ืŸ.
14:06
Thank you very much.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื.
14:08
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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