Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity

Prevodilac: Sandra Gojic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed

Da li se ikada osećate potpuno poraženi

when you're faced with a complex problem?

u susretu sa složenim problemom?

Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.

Pa, nadam se da ću to promeniti za manje od tri minuta.

So, I hope to convince you that complex

Dakle, nadam se da ću vas ubediti da složenost

doesn't always equal complicated.

nije jednaka komplikovanosti.

So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,

Dakle, za mene, sveže izvađen iz rerne, dobro umešan baget,

is complex,

je složen,

but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread

ali hleb sa sirom, karijem, lukom,

is complicated.

zelenim maslinama, je komplikovan.

I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.

Ja sam ekolog i izučavam složenost. Volim složenost.

And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.

Izučavam je u prirodi, povezanost vrsta.

So here's a food web,

Ovo je prehrambena mreža,

or a map of feeding links between species

ili mapa povezanosti ishrane među vrstama

that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.

koje žive u planinskim jezerima kalifornijskih planina.

And this is what happens to that food web

A ovo se dešava toj mreži

when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.

kada se napuni stranim ribama koje tu nikada pre nisu živele.

All the grayed-out species disappear.

Sve ovo sivo su vrste koje nestaju.

Some are actually on the brink of extinction.

Neke su zaista na ivici istrebljenja.

And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.

A jezera sa ribom imaju više komaraca, iako ih one jedu.

These effects were all unanticipated,

Ovi efekti nisu bili očekivani,

and yet we're discovering they're predictable.

a opet, otkrili smo da su predvidivi.

So I want to share with you a couple key insights

I želim da podelim sa vama nekoliko ključnih uvida

about complexity we're learning from studying nature

o složenosti koju otkrivamo proučavanjem prirode,

that maybe are applicable to other problems.

a koji se možda mogu primeniti na druge probleme.

First is the simple power of good visualization tools

Prvi - jednostavna moć dobre vizualizacije

to help untangle complexity

koja pomaže da se složenost razmrsi

and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.

i ohrabruje vas da pitate ono o čemu niste pre razmišljali.

For example, you could plot the flow of carbon

Na primer, možete da napravite plan za protok ugljenika

through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,

kroz lance za snabdevanje korporativnih ekosistema,

or the interconnections of habitat patches

ili međupovezanost određenih staništa

for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.

za ugrožene vrste u Josemit nacionalnom parku.

The next thing is that if you want to predict

Sledeća stvar, ako želite da predvidite

the effect of one species on another,

uticaj jedne vrste na drugu,

if you focus only on that link,

ako se usmerite samo na tu vezu,

and then you black box the rest,

i zanemarite ostale,

it's actually less predictable

to vam donosi lošije rezultate

than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --

nego da ste ste uzeli u obzir ceo sistem - sve vrste, sve veze -

and from that place,

i sa tog mesta,

hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.

usmerili se na sferu uticaja koja je najvažnija.

And we're discovering, with our research,

I našim istraživanjima otkrivamo,

that's often very local to the node you care about

da je ona vrlo lokalna, u rasponu jednog

within one or two degrees.

ili dva stepena od čvora.

So the more you step back, embrace complexity,

Dakle, što se više vratite unazad, prigrlite složenost,

the better chance you have of finding simple answers,

imate veće šanse da nađete jednostavne odgovore,

and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.

koji su vrlo često drugačiji od onih sa kojima ste počeli.

So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem

Hajde da se prebacimo na zaista složen problem

courtesy of the U.S. government.

uz ljubaznost američke vlade.

This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Ovo je dijagram američke strategije za borbu protiv pobunjenika u Avganistanu.

It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.

Pre par meseci bio je na prvoj strani "Njujork Tajmsa" -

Instantly ridiculed by the media

odmah ismejan od strane medija

for being so crazy complicated.

što je tako ludo složen.

And the stated goal was to increase popular support

A cilj je bio da se poveća podrška građana

for the Afghan government.

avganistanskoj vladi.

Clearly a complex problem,

Očigledno složen problem,

but is it complicated?

da li je i komplikovan?

Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,

Pa, kada sam video to na prvoj strani "Tajmsa",

I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.

pomislio sam: "Sjajno. Konačno nešto s čime mogu da se povežem.

I can sink my teeth into this."

Mogu da uronim u to."

So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,

Hajde da to uradimo. Po prvi put, svetska premijera,

a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.

ovog špageti dijagrama, organizovanog u sređenu mrežu.

The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --

Kružni čvor je onaj na koji pokušavamo da utičemo -

popular support for the government.

podrška vladi od strane građana.

And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,

Sada možemo pogledati jedan, dva,

three degrees away from that node

tri stepena od tog čvora

and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.

i ukloniti tri četvrtine dijagrama izvan sfere uticaja.

Within that sphere,

U okviru te oblasti,

most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,

većina tih čvorova nije vezana za aktivnost, poput surovosti terena,

and a very small minority are actual military actions.

a veoma mali procenat čine vojne akcije.

Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:

Većina njih je nenasilna i spada u dve široke kategorije:

active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs

aktivno učešće u etničkim sukobima i verskim uverenjima

and fair, transparent economic development

i pravičan, vidljiv ekonomski razvoj

and provisioning of services.

i pružanje usluga.

I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram

Ne znam mnogo o tome, ali to je ono što mogu da dešifrujem iz ovog dijagrama

in 24 seconds.

za 24 sekunde.

When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.

Kada vidite dijagram poput ovog, ne želim da se uplašite.

I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.

Želim da budete uzbuđeni. Želim da vam bude lakše.

Because simple answers may emerge.

Jer mogu da se jave jednostavni odgovori.

We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies

U prirodi otkrivamo da jednostavnost često leži

on the other side of complexity.

sa druge strane složenosti.

So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,

Dakle, za bilo koji problem, što se više udaljite i prihvatite složenost,

the better chance you have of zooming in

imate veće šanse za približavanje

on the simple details that matter most.

jednostavnim detaljima koji najviše znače.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(aplauz)