Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity

譯者: Adrienne Lin 審譯者: Sherry Yang

Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed

當你面對著一個複雜的問題時

when you're faced with a complex problem?

你是否曾經覺得很不知所措？

Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.

我希望能在三分鐘內為此做些改變

So, I hope to convince you that complex

因此，我希望說服你其實複雜

doesn't always equal complicated.

並不總是繁雜

So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,

對我來說，一個剛出爐的精心烘培法國麵包

is complex,

是複雜的

but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread

但是咖哩綠橄欖罌粟洋蔥起司麵包

is complicated.

是複雜的

I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.

我是一個生態學家，我研究複雜性，我愛複雜性

And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.

我還研究在自然界中，物種彼此之間的關係

So here's a food web,

這是一個食物網

or a map of feeding links between species

或者是一張食物鏈關聯圖

that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.

描述加州高山湖的物種關係

And this is what happens to that food web

而這是食物網現在的樣子

when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.

非原生的魚類大量湧入後

All the grayed-out species disappear.

所有灰色的物種消失了

Some are actually on the brink of extinction.

有些瀕臨絕種

And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.

有魚的湖會有更多蚊子，雖然魚會吃蚊子

These effects were all unanticipated,

這些影響都是預想不到的

and yet we're discovering they're predictable.

但我們發現他們是可被預測的

So I want to share with you a couple key insights

所以我想要分享幾個想法

about complexity we're learning from studying nature

關於在自然界學到的複雜性

that maybe are applicable to other problems.

或許可以沿用到其他問題

First is the simple power of good visualization tools

首先，視覺化工具所帶來的簡單力量

to help untangle complexity

可以幫助釐清複雜性

and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.

並且引導你思考你從未想過的問題

For example, you could plot the flow of carbon

例如，你可以在圖中找出相似處

through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,

在生態系統中的一堆關連中

or the interconnections of habitat patches

或在優勝美地國家公園

for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.

標出瀕絕物種棲息地的關係

The next thing is that if you want to predict

其次，如果你想要預測

the effect of one species on another,

物種間彼此的影響

if you focus only on that link,

如果你只專注那個連結

and then you black box the rest,

然後忽略掉其它的

it's actually less predictable

其實是較難預測的

than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --

如果你退回上一步，納入整個系統，包括所有物種、關聯

and from that place,

從這裡

hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.

把焦點集中在相關的影響範圍

And we're discovering, with our research,

而我們在研究中發現

that's often very local to the node you care about

通常是在你注意的癥結點附近的

within one or two degrees.

一到兩層左右

So the more you step back, embrace complexity,

所以你退的越多，並廣納複雜

the better chance you have of finding simple answers,

你就越有機會找到簡單的答案

and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.

而且是和你起先著手的簡單答案不同

So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem

現在換個角度，用美國政府來看

courtesy of the U.S. government.

真正複雜的問題

This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

這是美國對阿富汗鎮暴策略的示意圖

It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.

幾個月前出現在紐約時報頭版

Instantly ridiculed by the media

馬上被媒體嘲笑著

for being so crazy complicated.

因為這張表實在是太過複雜

And the stated goal was to increase popular support

而他們的目標是為了要聲援

for the Afghan government.

阿富汗政權

Clearly a complex problem,

這很明顯的是個多重的問題

but is it complicated?

但它複雜嗎

Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,

我看到報紙的這篇頭版時

I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.

我心裡想著 "太好了，總算有類似的東西了"

I can sink my teeth into this."

"我可以拿出來大講特講"

So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,

來吧，全世界有史以來第一次

a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.

要把錯綜複雜的圖表變成有條理的網路

The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --

圈起來的癥結點是我們試圖想要去影響

popular support for the government.

對政府的支持聲浪

And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,

因此，我們可以看，第一層，第二層

three degrees away from that node

第三層與結點間的關係

and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.

然後去除圖表中的四分之三沒有在範圍裡的影響

Within that sphere,

在這個範圍中

most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,

大部分的結點是不可動的，如險峻的地勢

and a very small minority are actual military actions.

少數是軍事行動

Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:

大部分是非暴力的，並且可分為兩大類別

active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs

道德抗爭與宗教信條的激烈交戰

and fair, transparent economic development

與公平、透明的經濟發展

and provisioning of services.

和糧食供應服務

I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram

我不知道這些是什麼，可是我能在24秒內

in 24 seconds.

分析出這些東西

When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.

當你看到一個像這樣的圖表，你不需要感到害怕

I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.

我要你覺得開心，感到鬆了一口氣

Because simple answers may emerge.

因為簡單的答案會浮現

We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies

我們發現在自然界裡，複雜的反面

on the other side of complexity.

其實就是簡單

So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,

所以對任何問題，你愈往後退，涵蓋複雜

the better chance you have of zooming in

你愈有機會可以聚焦

on the simple details that matter most.

在簡單並影響最鉅的細節上

Thank you.

感謝各位

(Applause)

(鼓掌)