Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity

167,622 views ・ 2010-11-12

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Prevoditelj: Tilen Pigac - EFZG Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG
00:15
Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed
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Osjećate li se ikada potpuno zatrpano
00:17
when you're faced with a complex problem?
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kada ste suočeni sa složenim problemom?
00:20
Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.
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Nadam se kako ću uspjeti to promijeniti za manje od tri minute.
00:23
So, I hope to convince you that complex
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Nadam se da ću vas uvjeriti kako složeno
00:25
doesn't always equal complicated.
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nije uvijek jednako kompliciranom.
00:27
So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,
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Za mene, dobro osmišljen baget, svježi iz peći,
00:30
is complex,
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je složen,
00:32
but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread
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ali kruh od karija sa zelenom maslinom, makom i sirom
00:34
is complicated.
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je kompliciran.
00:37
I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.
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Ja sam ekolog, i proučavam složenost. Volim složenost.
00:40
And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.
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I proučavam to u prirodi, međupovezanost vrsta.
00:43
So here's a food web,
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Ovo je prehrambena mreža,
00:45
or a map of feeding links between species
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ili mapa hranidbenih poveznica između vrsta
00:47
that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.
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koje žive u alpskim jezerima u planinama Kalifornije.
00:50
And this is what happens to that food web
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A ovo se događa s tom prehrambenom mrežom
00:52
when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.
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kada je napunjena sa stranim ribama koje nikad prije nisu ovdje živjele.
00:54
All the grayed-out species disappear.
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Sve vrste označene sivom bojom nestaju.
00:56
Some are actually on the brink of extinction.
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Neke su doista na rubu izumiranja.
00:58
And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.
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A jezera s ribama imaju više komaraca, iako ih one jedu.
01:01
These effects were all unanticipated,
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Svi ti efekti su bili nepredviđeni,
01:03
and yet we're discovering they're predictable.
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a ipak otkrivamo kako su predvidivi.
01:05
So I want to share with you a couple key insights
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Stoga s vama želim podijeliti par ključnih uvida
01:07
about complexity we're learning from studying nature
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o složenosti koje smo naučili proučavajući prirodu
01:09
that maybe are applicable to other problems.
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koji se možda mogu primjeniti na druge probleme.
01:13
First is the simple power of good visualization tools
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Prvo je jednostavna moć dobrih vizualizacijskih alata
01:15
to help untangle complexity
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koji pomažu razmrsiti složenost
01:17
and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.
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i potaknuti vas da postavite pitanja o kojima niste prije razmišljali.
01:20
For example, you could plot the flow of carbon
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Na primjer, možete planirati tok ugljika
01:23
through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,
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kroz korporativni lanac dobave u korporativnom ekosustavu,
01:26
or the interconnections of habitat patches
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ili međupovezanost određenih staništa
01:28
for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.
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za ugrožene vrste u Yosemite nacionalnom parku.
01:31
The next thing is that if you want to predict
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Iduća stvar jest, ako želite predvidjeti
01:33
the effect of one species on another,
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učinak jedne vrste na drugu,
01:35
if you focus only on that link,
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ukoliko se fokusirate samo na tu vezu,
01:37
and then you black box the rest,
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i ostavite sve ostalo da prođe kroz crnu kutiju,
01:39
it's actually less predictable
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zapravo je manje predvidivo
01:41
than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --
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nego kad bi napravili korak unatrag, uzeli u obzir cijeli sustav -- sve vrste, sve veze --
01:44
and from that place,
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i iz tog mjesta,
01:46
hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.
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fokusirali se na sferu utjecaja koja ima najviše znači.
01:48
And we're discovering, with our research,
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A ono što otkrivamo s našim istraživanjem,
01:50
that's often very local to the node you care about
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jest da je blizina čvora do kojeg vam je stalo
01:52
within one or two degrees.
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unutar raspona od jednog ili dva stupnja.
01:54
So the more you step back, embrace complexity,
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Što više koraka zakoračite unatrag, prihvatite složenost,
01:56
the better chance you have of finding simple answers,
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imate bolje šanse pronalaska jednostavnih odgovora,
01:58
and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.
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a to je često različito od jednostavnog odgovora s kojim ste započeli.
02:02
So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem
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Promijenimo brzine i pogledajmo stvarno složen problem,
02:05
courtesy of the U.S. government.
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uz ljubaznost vlade SAD-a.
02:08
This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
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Ovo je dijagram strategije mjera protiv pobune SAD-a u Afganistanu.
02:11
It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.
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Bilo je na prvoj stranici New York Times-a prije par mjeseci --
02:14
Instantly ridiculed by the media
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i odmah je bilo ismijano od strane medija
02:16
for being so crazy complicated.
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zbog luđačke kompliciranosti.
02:18
And the stated goal was to increase popular support
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Utvrđen cilj je bio povećati podršku naroda
02:20
for the Afghan government.
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za vladu Afganistana.
02:22
Clearly a complex problem,
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Očito složen problem,
02:24
but is it complicated?
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no je li kompliciran?
02:26
Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,
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Kada sam to vidio na prvoj stranici Times-a,
02:28
I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.
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pomislio sam, "Odlično. Konačno nešto s čime se mogu poistovjetiti.
02:30
I can sink my teeth into this."
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Mogu zagristi u to."
02:32
So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,
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Dakle, napravimo to. Ovo je prvi put uopće,
02:35
a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.
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svjetska premijera prikaza špageta dijagrama kao posložene mreže.
02:38
The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --
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Zaokruženi čvor je onaj na koji pokušavamo utjecati --
02:40
popular support for the government.
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podrška naroda za vladu.
02:42
And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,
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Tako sada možemo gledati jedan stupanj, dva stupnja,
02:44
three degrees away from that node
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tri stupnja podalje od čvora
02:46
and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.
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i eliminirati tri četvrtine dijagrama koji se nalazi izvan sfere utjecaja.
02:49
Within that sphere,
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Unutar te sfere,
02:51
most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,
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većina tih čvorova nije vezana uz nikakvu aktivnost, kao nepristupačan teren,
02:54
and a very small minority are actual military actions.
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a vrlo mala manjina su zapravo vojne akcije.
02:57
Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:
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Većina ih je nenasilna i mogu se svrstati u dvije široke kategorije:
03:01
active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs
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aktivno uključivanje u etničke sukobe i vjerska uvjerenja
03:04
and fair, transparent economic development
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i pravedan, transparentan ekonomski razvoj
03:06
and provisioning of services.
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i nabava usluga.
03:08
I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram
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Ne znam puno o tome, ali to je što mogu dešifrirati iz tog dijagrama
03:11
in 24 seconds.
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u 24 sekunde.
03:13
When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.
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Kada vidite dijagram nalik ovome, ne želim da se uplašite.
03:15
I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.
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Želim da budete uzbuđeni. Želim da se osjećate olakšano.
03:18
Because simple answers may emerge.
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Jer bi mogli nastati jednostavni odgovori.
03:20
We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies
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U prirodi otkrivamo kako jednostavnost često leži
03:22
on the other side of complexity.
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s druge strane složenosti.
03:24
So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,
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Dakle, za svaki problem, što više se možete odmaknuti i prihvatiti složenost,
03:27
the better chance you have of zooming in
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to imate veće šanse za približavanje
03:29
on the simple details that matter most.
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jednostavnim detaljima koji najviše znače.
03:31
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
03:33
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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