Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity

翻译人员: Jenny Yang 校对人员: Angelia King

Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed

当你面对着一个复杂的问题时

when you're faced with a complex problem?

你是否曾经觉得很不知所措？

Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.

我希望能在三分钟内为此做些改变。

So, I hope to convince you that complex

因此，我希望说服你其实复杂

doesn't always equal complicated.

并不总是繁杂。

So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,

对我来说，一个刚出炉的精心烘培法国面包

is complex,

是复杂的，

but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread

但是咖喱绿橄榄罂粟洋葱奶酪面包

is complicated.

是繁杂的。

I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.

我是一个生态学家，我研究复杂性，我爱复杂性。

And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.

我研究自然界中，物种彼此之间的关系。

So here's a food web,

这是一个食物网

or a map of feeding links between species

或者是一张食物链关联图

that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.

描述了加州高山湖的物种关系。

And this is what happens to that food web

而这是食物网现在的样子

when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.

非原生的鱼类大量涌入后

All the grayed-out species disappear.

所有灰色的物种消失了。

Some are actually on the brink of extinction.

有些濒临绝种。

And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.

有鱼的湖会有更多蚊子，虽然鱼会吃蚊子。

These effects were all unanticipated,

这些影响都是预想不到的，

and yet we're discovering they're predictable.

但我们发现他们是可被预测的。

So I want to share with you a couple key insights

所以我想要分享几个想法

about complexity we're learning from studying nature

关于在自然界学到的复杂性

that maybe are applicable to other problems.

或许可以沿用到其他问题。

First is the simple power of good visualization tools

首先，视觉化工具所带来的简单力量

to help untangle complexity

可以帮助我们理清复杂的关系

and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.

并且引导你思考你从未想过的问题。

For example, you could plot the flow of carbon

例如，你可以在图中找出相似处

through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,

在生态系统中的一堆链接中

or the interconnections of habitat patches

或在优胜美地国家公园

for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.

标出濒绝物种栖息地的关系。

The next thing is that if you want to predict

其次，如果你想要预测

the effect of one species on another,

物种间彼此的影响，

if you focus only on that link,

如果你只专注那个链接，

and then you black box the rest,

你就会忽略掉其它的信息，

it's actually less predictable

但是你会更难做出推测

than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --

如果你退回上一步，纳入整个系统，包括所有物种、关联

and from that place,

从这里着手

hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.

把焦点集中在相关的影响范围效果会更好。

And we're discovering, with our research,

而我们在研究中发现

that's often very local to the node you care about

人们通常只关注非常靠近目标附近的一些内容

within one or two degrees.

一到两层左右。

So the more you step back, embrace complexity,

所以你退的越多，并广纳复杂，

the better chance you have of finding simple answers,

你就越有机会找到简单的答案，

and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.

而且是和你起先着手的简单答案不同。

So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem

现在换个角度，用美国政府来看

courtesy of the U.S. government.

真正复杂的问题。

This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

这是美国对阿富汗镇暴策略的示意图。

It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.

几个月前出现在纽约时报头版

Instantly ridiculed by the media

马上被媒体嘲笑着

for being so crazy complicated.

因为这张图表实在是太过复杂。

And the stated goal was to increase popular support

而他们的目标是为了要得到声援

for the Afghan government.

对阿富汗政权的声援。

Clearly a complex problem,

这很明显的是个复杂的问题，

but is it complicated?

但它繁杂吗？

Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,

我看到报纸的这篇头版时，

I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.

我心里想着，“太好了，总算有类似的东西了。

I can sink my teeth into this."

我可以拿出来大讲特讲。”

So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,

来吧，全世界有史以来第一次

a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.

要把错综复杂的图表变成有条理的关系图。

The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --

圈起来的症结点是我们试图想要去影响

popular support for the government.

对政府的支持声浪。

And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,

因此，我们可以看，第一层，第二层

three degrees away from that node

第三层与结点间的关系

and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.

然后去除图表中的四分之三没有在范围里的影响。

Within that sphere,

在这个范围中

most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,

大部分的结点是不可动的，如险峻的地势

and a very small minority are actual military actions.

少数是军事行动。

Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:

大部分是非暴力的，并且可分为两大类别：

active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs

道德抗争与宗教信条的激烈交战

and fair, transparent economic development

与公平、透明的经济发展

and provisioning of services.

和供应服务。

I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram

我不知道这些是什么，可是我能在24秒内通过图表

in 24 seconds.

分析出这些东西。

When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.

当你看到一个像这样的图表，你不需要感到害怕。

I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.

我要你觉得开心，感到松了一口气。

Because simple answers may emerge.

因为简单的答案会浮现。

We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies

我们发现在自然界里，复杂的反面

on the other side of complexity.

其实就是简单

So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,

所以对任何问题，你越是往后退，涵盖复杂，

the better chance you have of zooming in

你越是有机会聚焦

on the simple details that matter most.

在重要的简单的细节上。

Thank you.

感谢各位。

(Applause)

(鼓掌)