Innovating to zero! | Bill Gates

Prevodilac: Radica Stojanović Lektor: Ivana Korom

I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.

Danas ću govoriti o energiji i klimi.

And that might seem a bit surprising,

To možda zvuči iznenađujuće od mene

because my full-time work at the foundation

budući da moj posao u fondaciji podrazumeva većinom oblasti

vezane za vakcine i semena,

is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

about the things that we need to invent and deliver

stvari koje je potrebno da osmišljavamo i isporučujemo

to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

da bismo pomogli da dve milijarde najsiromašnijih žive bolje živote.

But energy and climate are extremely important to these people;

Ali energija i klima su izuzetno važne upravo ovim ljudima,

in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

zapravo, važnije nego bilo kome drugom na celoj planeti.

Pogoršanje klimatskih uslova znači loš rast i razvoj njihovih useva.

The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:

there will be too much rain, not enough rain;

Ili će biti previše kiše ili nedovoljno kiše.

things will change in ways their fragile environment simply can't support.

Stvari će se menjati na način

koji njihova osetljiva sredina jednostavno neće podneti.

And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

A to vodi do umiranja od gladi.

To vodi do nesigurnosti, do nestabilnosti i nemira.

Tako će klimatske promene biti katastrofalne za njih.

So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

Takođe, cena energije njima je veoma važna.

In fact, if you could pick just one thing

U principu, kada bismo imali mogućnost

to lower the price of to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

da biramo da snizimo cenu samo jedne stvari,

u cilju smanjenja siromaštva, to bi bila energija.

Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

Cena energije je vremenom opala.

Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

Zaista, napredak civilizacije je baziran na napretku energije.

Revolucija u proizvodnji uglja dovela je do industrijske revolucije,

The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,

and, even in the 1900s, we've seen a very rapid decline

čak smo videli drastičan pad cene električne energije početkom XX veka,

in the price of electricity,

and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning;

i zbog toga danas imamo frižidere, klima uređaje,

we can make modern materials and do so many things.

možemo stvarati savremene materijale i činiti mnogo stvari.

And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

I tako smo se našli u predivnoj situaciji sa električnom energijom u bogatom svetu.

But as we make it cheaper -- and let's say,

Ali, kako je činimo jeftinijom -

i recimo neka bude i duplo jeftinija -

let's go for making it twice as cheap --

we need to meet a new constraint,

moramo da se suočimo sa novim ograničenjima,

a ta ograničenja su u vezi sa CO2.

and that constraint has to do with CO2.

CO2 zagreva planetu,

CO2 is warming the planet,

and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

a računica sa CO2 je izuzetno jednostavna.

If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

Ako sumirate CO2 koji se emituje,

that leads to a temperature increase,

videćete da to dovodi do porasta temperature,

and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:

a to povećanje temperature dovodi do negativnih posledica.

the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

Posledice se odnose na klimu i u još gorem slučaju,

posledice mogu biti indirektne

in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

u tom smislu što se prirodni ekosistemi ne mogu prilagoditi tim brzim promenama,

and so you get ecosystem collapses.

te tako dolazi do kolapsa ekosistema.

Now, the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase of CO2

E sada, tačan podatak koji želite da dobijete

o tome koliko će sniženje temperature biti u zavisnosti od umanjenja emisije CO2

to what temperature will be, and where the positive feedbacks are --

i kakve će biti pozitivne povratne reakcije,

there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

u tome postoji neki stepen nesigurnosti, ali ne prevelik.

And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

I postoji izvesna neodređenost u vezi s tim koliko su loši efekti emisije

but they will be extremely bad.

ali biće ekstremno loši.

I asked the top scientists on this several times:

Pitao sam vodeće stručnjake u ovoj oblasti više puta,

Do we really have to get down to near zero?

da li je zaista potrebno svesti emisiju baš skoro do nule?

Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

Možemo li je samo smanjiti na pola ili na četvrtinu?

And the answer is, until we get near to zero,

Odgovor je bio da, sve dok ne svedemo emisiju skoro do nule,

the temperature will continue to rise.

temperatura će nastaviti da raste.

And so that's a big challenge.

A to je veliki izazov.

It's very different than saying,

To je prilično drugačije od toga

da pokušamo da uguramo kamion visok 4m ispod mosta visine 3m,

"We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

gledaćemo samo da ga nekako provučemo ispod.

and we can just sort of squeeze under."

This is something that has to get to zero.

Ovo je nešto što mora da se svede na nulu.

Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year --

E sada, mi ispuštamo mnogož ugljen dioksida svake godine,

over 26 billion tons.

tačnije, preko 26 milijardi tona.

For each American, it's about 20 tons.

Za svakog Amerikanca, to je oko 20 tona.

For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

Za ljude u siromašnim zemljama, to je manje od jedne tone.

It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

To je u proseku, oko pet tona po svakoj osobi na planeti.

And somehow, we have to make changes that will bring that down to zero.

I nekako, mi moramo da napravimo promene

da bismo sveli to na nulu.

It's been constantly going up.

To je proces koji je stalno u porastu.

Samo različite ekonomske promene su doprinele smanjenju,

It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

so we have to go from rapidly rising to falling,

tako da mi moramo da idemo od brzog rasta

do naglog spuštanja skroz do nule.

and falling all the way to zero.

This equation has four factors, a little bit of multiplication.

Ova jednačina ima četiri faktora.

Malo množenja.

So you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

Tako, imate CO2 na levoj strani koji želite da svedete na nulu,

i to će biti zasnovano na broju ljudi,

and that's going to be based on the number of people,

the services each person is using on average,

na uslugama kojima se koriste u proseku,

the energy, on average, for each service,

energiji koja se prosečno potroši pri svakoj usluzi,

and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

i količini CO2 koja se potroši po jedinici te energije.

So let's look at each one of these,

Pogledajmo svaku od postojećih vrednosti,

and see how we can get this down to zero.

i vidimo kako ćemo doći do nule.

Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

Verovatno, jedan od ovih brojeva će morati da bude prilično blizu nule.

(Laughter)

E sada, to bi bilo malo povratka školskoj algebri,

That's back from high school algebra.

ali hajde da pogledamo.

But let's take a look.

First, we've got population.

Prvo, imamo populaciju.

The world today has 6.8 billion people.

Svet danas ima 6,8 milijardi ljudi.

That's headed up to about nine billion.

Ta cifra se kreće ka devet milijardi.

Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

E sad, ako odradimo zbilja dobar posao sa novim vakcinama,

health care, reproductive health services,

zdravstvenom negom, servisima za reproduktivno zdravlje,

we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent.

mogli bismo to sniziti za, recimo, 10 do 15 procenata,

But there, we see an increase of about 1.3.

ali i dalje vidimo porast od oko 1,3.

The second factor is the services we use.

Drugi faktor su usluge koje koristimo.

This encompasses everything:

To obuhvata baš sve,

the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

hranu koju jedemo, odeću, TV, grejanje.

Ovo su sve jako dobre stvari,

These are very good things.

Getting rid of poverty means providing these services

i rešavanje siromaštva znači obezbeđivanje ovih usluga

to almost everyone on the planet.

skoro svima na planeti.

And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

I sjajna je stvar da se ovaj broj poveća.

In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

U bogatom svetu, recimo jednoj milijardi koja je na vrhu,

we probably could cut back and use less,

verovatno bi mogla da smanji korišćenje ovih usluga,

but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

ali svake godine, ovaj broj, u proseku će rasti,

i tako, povrh svega, udvostručiće se broj usluga po osobi.

and so, overall, that will more than double

the services delivered per person.

Here we have a very basic service:

Ovde imamo najosnovnije usluge.

Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

Da li palite svetlo u kući da biste mogli da čitate svoj domaći zadatak,

And, in fact, these kids don't,

ova deca to ne mogu, oni izlaze napolje,

so they're going out and reading their schoolwork

da bi čitali svoj zadatak pod svetlošću uličnih lampi.

under the street lamps.

Now, efficiency, "E," the energy for each service --

Sada, efikasnost, E, energija utrošena za svaku ovu uslugu,

here, finally we have some good news.

ovde, najzad imamo malo dobrih vesti.

We have something that's not going up.

Ovde imamo nešto što nije u porastu.

Kroz različite inovacije i nove načine dobijanja svetlosti,

Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --

kroz različite vrste automobila, različite načine izrade zgrada,

there are a lot of services

postoji mnogo usluga gde se može postići

where you can bring the energy for that service down

prilično značajno smanjenje energije,

quite substantially.

Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

u nekim individualnim uslugama čak se može sniziti za 90 procenata.

There are other services, like how we make fertilizer,

Ali, postoje neke druge usluge

kao na primer način na koji stvaramo đubrivo,

or how we do air transport,

ili kako omogućavamo avionski saobraćaj

where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

gde je prostor za poboljšanje znatno, znatno manji.

And so overall, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction

I tako, sve u svemu, ukoliko smo optismiti,

mogli bismo da postignemo redukciju od tri do čak, možda, šest puta.

of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

But for these first three factors now,

Ali za ova prva tri faktora,

we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

uspeli smo da samnjimo sa 26 milijardi,

na, u najboljem slučaju, 13 milijardi tona,

and that just won't cut it.

a to jednostavno nije dovoljno.

So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one --

Stoga, pogledajmo ovaj četvrti faktor -

ovaj će se ispostaviti kao ključni -

a to je količina CO2 emitovanog po jedinici energije.

and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

So the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

A glavno pitanje je,

da li je zaista moguće da bude sveden na nulu?

If you burn coal, no.

Ako sagorevate ugalj, ne.

If you burn natural gas, no.

Ako sagorevate prirodni gas, ne.

Almost every way we make electricity today,

Skoro svi načini na koje danas stvaramo električnu energiju,

except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

izuzev obnovljivih izvora energije koja je u razvoju i nuklearne,

oslobađaju CO2.

And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

I tako, ono što ćemo mi morati da uradimo na globalnom nivou,

is create a new system.

jeste da kreiramo novi sistem.

So we need energy miracles.

Trebaju nam energetska čuda.

Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

Kada koristim termin "čudo", ja ne mislim na nešto što je nemoguće.

Mikroprocesor je čudo.

The microprocessor is a miracle.

The personal computer is a miracle.

Personalni računar je čudo.

The Internet and its services are a miracle.

Internet i njegove usluge su čudo.

Dakle, ljudi ovde su učestvovali u kreiranju mnogih čuda.

So the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

Usually, we don't have a deadline

Obično nemamo fiksiran rok,

do kog moramo da izmislimo to čudo.

where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

Obično smo u nekakvom stanju pripravnosti i neka čuda dođu, neka ne.

This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed

Ovo je situacija u kojoj ćemo morati da se ubrzamo

and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.

i pronađemo to čudo u prilično brzom roku.

Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?

Sada razmišljam, kako bih zaista mogao učiniti to?

Is there some kind of natural illustration,

Postoji li neka vrsta prirodne ilustracije,

some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

nekakva demonstracija koja bi usmerila ljudsku imaginaciju na ovaj put?

I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitoes,

Pomislio sam na prošlu godinu kad sam doneo komarce ovde,

and somehow people enjoyed that.

i nekako su ljudi zbilja uživali u tome.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It really got them involved in the idea of, you know,

To ih je zaista navelo da pomisle,

da, znate, postoje ljudi koji žive sa komarcima.

there are people who live with mosquitoes.

With energy, all I could come up with is this.

Sa energijom, sve što sam uspeo da smislim je ovo.

I decided that releasing fireflies

Odlučio sam da je oslobađanje svitaca

would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

moj ovogodišnji doprinos okolini ovde.

So here we have some natural fireflies.

I tako mi ovde imamo neke prirodne svice.

I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

Rečeno mi je da oni ne ujedaju,

zapravo, vrlo je moguće da uopšte i ne napuste teglu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,

Postoji veliki broj raznovrsnih rešenja kao što je ovo,

but they don't really add up to much.

ali oni zapravo ne doprinose mnogo.

We need solutions, either one or several,

Potrebno nam je rešenje, jedno ili nekoliko njih,

that have unbelievable scale and unbelievable reliability.

koje će imati nezamislive domete

i neverovatnu pouzdanost.

And although there's many directions that people are seeking,

I iako postoji mnoštvo različitih pravaca kojima se ljudi vode,

I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

ja trenutno mogu da vidim pet pristupa koji mogu da postignu velike brojeve.

I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

Izostavio sam plimu, geotermalne, fuziju, biogoriva.

Those may make some contribution,

Oni mogu dati neki doprinos,

and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better.

i ukoliko mogu više od onoga koliko ja mislim, tim bolje.

Ali moja ključna ideja ovde

But my key point here is that we're going to have to work on

jeste da ćemo morati da radimo na svakoj od ovih pet,

each of these five,

and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

i ne smemo odustati niti od jedne jer sve one deluju zastrašujuće,

because they all have significant challenges.

jer imaju značajne izazove.

Hajde prvo da pogledamo sagorevanje fosilnih goriva,

Let's look first at burning fossil fuels,

either burning coal or burning natural gas.

ili sagorevanje uglja ili prirodnog gasa.

Ono što se tu treba uraditi

What you need to do there seems like it might be simple, but it's not.

deluje jednostavno, ali zapravo nije,

And that's to take all the CO2,

a to je je ekstrahovanje kompletnog CO2,

after you've burned it, going out the flue,

nakon što ga sagorite, izdvojite iz goriva,

pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,

kompresujete ga, stvorite tečnost, uskladištite ga negde,

and hope it stays there.

i potom se nadate da će tamo i ostati.

Now, we have some pilot things

Postoje neki pilot projekti koji rade upravo ovo

that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level.

sa uspešnošću od 60 do 80 procenata.

But getting up to that full percentage -- that will be very tricky.

Ali dostizanje punog procenta će biti izuzetno nezgodno.

And agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,

I dogovor oko toga gde će se taj CO2 skladištiti će biti izuzetno težak,

but the toughest one here is this long-term issue:

ali najteže od svega ovde jeste pitanje dugoročnosti.

Who's going to be sure?

Ko će uopšte biti siguran u to?

Who's going to guarantee

Ko će garantovati nešto što bi bilo bukvalno milijardama puta veće

something that is literally billions of times larger

than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?

od bilo kog tipa otpada koji vam padne na pamet,

na primer nuklearnog ili tome slično?

This is a lot of volume.

To je ogromna količina.

So that's a tough one.

Tako da je to pravi problem.

Next would be nuclear.

Sledeće bi bila nuklearna.

It also has three big problems:

I ona ima tri velika problema.

cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;

Troškovi, posebno u visoko razvijenim zemljama su jako visoki.

the issue of safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,

Pitanje bezbednosti, stvarno dobar osećaj da ništa ne može krenuti loše,

that, even though you have these human operators,

iako time upravljaju ljudi,

the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

da se gorivo ne upotrebi za oružje.

And then what do you do with the waste?

I onda, šta raditi sa otpadom?

Although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.

Iako nije prevelik, postoji mnogo brige oko toga.

People need to feel good about it.

Ljudi moraju da se osećaju dobro povodom toga.

So three very tough problems that might be solvable,

Znači, tri veoma teška problema koja bi mogla bila rešiva,

and so, should be worked on.

i na kojima bi stoga trebalo raditi.

The last three of the five, I've grouped together.

Preostala tri od pet, spojio sam zajedno.

These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.

Oni se odnose na ono što ljudi najčešće nazivaju izvorima obnovljive energije.

And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --

A oni zapravo, iako je sjajno što ne zahtevaju goriva,

they have some disadvantages.

imaju i neke nedostatke.

One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies

Jedan je ta da je gustina energije sakupljena pomoću ovih tehnologija

is dramatically less than a power plant.

drastično manja od one dobijene iz elektrana.

This is energy farming,

To je uzgajanje energije,

so you're talking about many square miles, thousands of times more area

koje podrazumeva mnogo kvadratnih kilometara,

hiljade puta više nego što bi pomislili kada je u pitanju obična elektrana.

than you think of as a normal energy plant.

Also, these are intermittent sources.

Takođe, ovo su i izvori na koje ne možemo uvek računati.

The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,

Sunce ne sija ceo dan, ne sija ni svaki dan,

and likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.

i, slično, vetar ne duva stalno.

And so, if you depend on these sources,

I tako, da biste zavisili od ovih izvora,

you have to have some way of getting the energy

morate imati neki način za dobijanje energije

u toku onih perioda kada ovi izvori nisu dostupni.

during those time periods that it's not available.

So we've got big cost challenges here.

Tako imamo izazove visokih cena ovde.

We have transmission challenges;

Imamo izazove vezane za prenos.

for example, say this energy source is outside your country,

Na primer, recimo da su ovi izvori energije izvan vaše zemlje,

ne samo da vam treba tehnologija,

you not only need the technology,

nego treba da se nosite i sa rizikom da dobijate energiju sa drugih strana.

but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.

And, finally, this storage problem.

I najzad, problem sa skladištenjem.

I da bih sagledao ovo sa svih strana,

To dimensionalize this,

I went through and looked at all the types of batteries made --

otišao sam i pogledao sve vrste baterija koje se prave -

za automobile, kompjutere, telefone, lampe, za sve -

for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --

and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses.

i uporedio ih sa ukupnom količinom električne energije koju svet koristi,

What I found is that all the batteries we make now

i otkrio sam da sve baterije koje pravimo danas

could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.

mogu uskladištiti manje od 10 minuta celokupne energije.

And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,

I tako nam je, zapravo, potreban veliki prodor ovde,

something that's going to be a factor of 100 better

nešto što će biti otprilike sto puta bolje

than the approaches we have now.

od pristupa koje imamo sada.

It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.

To nije nemoguće, ali nije ni lako postići.

Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source

E sada, ovo se dešava kada pokušavate da koristite promenljive izvore

to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.

da biste postigli rast od 20 do 30 procenata u nečemu što koristite.

If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

Ako ste računali na to za 100 procenata,

potrebna vam je čudesna magična baterija.

you need an incredible miracle battery.

Now, how are we going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?

A kako sada da nastavimo napred sa ovim: koji je pravi pristup?

Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?

Da li je to "Menhetn projekat"? Šta nas može dovesti dotle?

Well, we need lots of companies working on this -- hundreds.

Potrebno nam je mnogo kompanija koje će raditi na tome, stotine.

In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.

I u svakom od ovih pet pristupa potrebne su nam stotine ljudi.

A lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy."

I za veliki broj njih reći ćete da su ludi.

That's good.

A to je dobro.

And, I think, here in the TED group,

I ja mislim, ovde u TED grupi,

we have many people who are already pursuing this.

imamo mnogo ljudi koji su već na tom tragu.

Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar

Bil Gros ima nekoliko kompanija, uključujući jednu koja se zove eSolar

that has some great solar thermal technologies.

koja ima neke sjajne solarno energetske tehnologije.

Vinod Khosla is investing in dozens of companies

Vinod Kosla investira u desetine kompanija

that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,

koje rade neke sjajne stvari i imaju zanimljive mogućnosti,

and I'm trying to help back that.

i ja se trudim da im pomognem.

Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company

Netan Mirvold i ja podržavamo kompaniju

that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.

koja, možda malo iznenadjujuće, zapravo ima nuklearni pristup.

Ima nekih inovacija u nuklearnom pristupu: modularni, tečni.

There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.

Innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,

Inovacije u ovim industrijama su već neko vreme zastale,

so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around

tako da otkriće da neke jako dobre ideje leže svuda oko nas

is not all that surprising.

i nije tako iznenađujuće.

The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --

Ideja organizacije TerraPower jeste da, umesto sagorevanja dela uranijuma,

the one percent, which is the U235 --

jednog procenta, koji je U235,

we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."

odlučili smo da sagorimo 99 procenata U238.

It is kind of a crazy idea.

To je zapravo jedna prilično luda ideja.

In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,

U stvari, ljudi su pričali o tome dugo,

but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,

ali nikada nisu uspeli da naprave dobru simulaciju

kako bi videli da li to radi ili ne,

and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers

i tako sa razvojem naprednih modernih superkompjutera,

that now you can simulate and see that, yes,

sa kojima je danas moguća dobra simulacija,

with the right materials approach, this looks like it would work.

zaključak je da sa dobrim pristupom, takva ideja bi mogla da radi.

And because you're burning that 99 percent,

I iz razloga što sagorevate 99 procenata,

you have greatly improved cost profile.

izuzetno ste poboljšali troškove.

You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel

Vi zapravo spaljujete i otpad,

i možete kompletan otpad od današnjih reaktora koristiti kao gorivo.

all the leftover waste from today's reactors.

So instead of worrying about them, you just take that, it's a great thing.

I tako, umesto da brinete o tome, vi ga jednostavno iskoristite, sjajno je.

It breeds this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.

Iskorišćavate uranijum u toku samog procesa.

To je nalik sagorevanju sveće.

You see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.

Kao što i vidite, najčešće se spominje kao putujući talasni reaktor.

In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.

Ukoliko govorimo o gorivu, ovo rešava problem.

I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.

Imam sliku ovde jednog mesta u Kentakiju.

This is the leftover, the 99 percent,

Ovo je ostatak, 99 procenata,

where they've taken out the part they burn now,

gde su oni odneli deo koji sada sagorevaju,

i to se zove istrošeni uranijum.

so it's called depleted uranium.

That would power the US for hundreds of years.

To bi obezbedilo Americi energiju narednih nekoliko stotina godina.

And simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,

Jednostavnom filtracijom morske vode putem jeftinih procesa,

you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.

imali bismo dovoljno goriva do kraja životnog ciklusa naše planete.

So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,

I tako, postoje mnogi izazovi pred nama,

but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas

ali ovo je primer nekih od stotina i stotina ideja

that we need to move forward.

koje su nam potrebne da bismo išli napred.

So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?

Hajde da razmislimo, kako bi trebalo da ocenjujemo nas same?

What should our report card look like?

Kako bi trebalo da izgledaju naši izveštaji?

Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,

Hajde da izađemo napolje gde zbilja treba da odemo,

and then look at the intermediate.

i pogledajmo brojke.

For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.

Do 2050, čuli ste da mnogi pričaju o redukciji od 80 procenata.

That really is very important, that we get there.

To je zaista veoma važno, da postignemo to.

And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries --

A tih preostalih 20 procenata će biti iskorišćeno

u neke svrhe u siromašnim zemljama,

still some agriculture; hopefully, we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.

u poljoprivredi.

Nadamo se da ćemo očistiti šume, cementare...

Tako, da bismo stigli do tih 80 procenata,

So, to get to that 80 percent,

razvijene zemlje,

the developed countries, including countries like China,

uključujući i one poput Kine,

will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.

moraće potpuno da zamene svoje električne generatore.

The other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,

Sledeće pitanje je da li primenjujemo ove tehnologije od nula-emisija,

have we deployed it in all the developed countries

da li je primenjujemo u svim razvijenim zemljama

and are in the process of getting it elsewhere?

i jesmo li u procesu njene primene i u ostalim zemljama.

That's super important.

To je izuzetno važno.

That's a key element of making that report card.

To je ključni element našeg konačnog izveštaja.

Backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?

Ali pre toga, kako bi izveštaj trebalo da izgleda 2020?

I ponovo, trebalo bi da ima ta dva elementa.

Well, again, it should have the two elements.

We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:

Trebalo bi da se krećemo putem ovih efikasnih mera

kako bismo počeli postizati redukciju.

The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,

Što manje emitujemo, manja će biti količina emitovanog CO2,

and therefore, the less the temperature.

i analogno, temperatura će biti niža.

But in some ways, the grade we get there,

Ali u neku ruku, stepen u kome stignemo do tamo,

doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,

radeći stvari koje nas neće odvesti skroz do konačne redukcije,

is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,

su jednako ili samo nešto manje važne od druge,

which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.

koja se odnosi na deo inovacije ključnih prodora.

These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,

Moramo ove prodore pokretati punom brzinom,

and we can measure that in terms of companies,

a to možemo meriti kroz postojanje kompanija,

pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.

pilot projekata, regulatornim merama koje su promenjene.

There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.

Postoje mnoge odlične knjige koje su napisane o ovome.

The Al Gore book, "Our Choice,"

Tu je knjiga Ala Gora, "Naš izbor"

and the David MacKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."

kao i knjiga Dejvida Mekaja, "Održiva energija bez toplog vazduha".

They really go through it and create a framework

Oni zbilja dotiču suštinu i stvaraju okvir

that this can be discussed broadly,

da bi se o ovoj temi široko raspravljalo,

because we need broad backing for this.

jer nam je potrebna široka podrška za ovaj problem.

There's a lot that has to come together.

Mnogo je toga što mora da se složi.

So this is a wish.

Ovo je želja.

Veoma konkretna želja da unapredimo ovu tehnologiju.

It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.

If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --

Ukoliko bih mogao da poželim samo želju u narednih 50 godina:

I could pick who's president,

da izaberem ko će biti predsednik,

I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,

da izaberem neku novu vakcinu, a to je nešto što zbilja volim,

or I could pick that this thing

ili bih mogao da izaberem da se izmisli

that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --

ova stvar koja košta duplo manje i nema CO2,

upravo bih tu želju izabrao.

this is the wish I would pick.

To je ona koja ima najviše uticaja.

This is the one with the greatest impact.

If we don't get this wish,

Ukoliko ne dobijemo ovu želju,

the division between the people who think short term and long term

raskol između onih koji razmišljaju kratkoročno i dugoročno će biti strašan,

will be terrible,

between the US and China, between poor countries and rich,

između Amerike i Kine, između siromašnih i bogatih zemalja,

and most of all,

i što je najznačajnije životi one dve milijarde ljudi će biti mnogo gori.

the lives of those two billion will be far worse.

So what do we have to do?

Pa šta moramo da uradimo?

Šta ja zapravo od vas tražim?

What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?

We need to go for more research funding.

Potrebno nam je više finansiranja u istraživačke projekte.

When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,

Kada se zemlje nađu sve zajedno na mestu kao što je Kopenhagen,

they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.

ne treba da raspravljaju samo o CO2.

They should discuss this innovation agenda.

Trebalo bi da raspravlju pitanju inovacija

You'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending

i bili biste zapanjeni koliko je smešno nizak nivo ulaganja

on these innovative approaches.

u ove inovativne pristupe.

We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --

Moramo da podstičemo tržište, CO2 takse, ograničimo trgovinu,

something that gets that price signal out there.

nešto što će proširiti ideju svuda.

We need to get the message out.

Moramo da prenesemo poruku.

We need to have this dialogue be a more rational,

Moramo da vodimo jedan racionalniji dijalog, razumljiviji dijalog,

more understandable dialogue,

including the steps that the government takes.

uključujući tu i korake koje vlada čini.

This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.

Ovo je važna želja, ali mislim da je moguće ostvariti je.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

(Applause ends)

Thank you.

(Kraj aplauza)

Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.

Kris Anderson: Hvala. Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: Thank you.

KA: Hvala.

Da bih razumeo malo više o projektu TerraPower,

So to understand more about TerraPower.

I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?

pre svega, možete li nagovestiti kolikih bi razmera bila ta investicija?

Bill Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,

Bil Gejts: Da bi se napravio softver, kupio super-kompjuter,

hire all the great scientists, which we've done,

angažovali svi vrhunski naučnici, što smo mi učinili,

that's only tens of millions.

to je svega desetak miliona,

And even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor

i kada budemo testirali naš materijal u ruskom reaktoru

da bismo se uverili da naš materijal ispravno funkcioniše,

to make sure our materials work properly,

then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.

tada će biti potrebno nekoliko stotina miliona.

The tough thing is building the pilot reactor --

Teža stvar je napraviti pilot reaktor,

naći nekoliko milijardi, naći regulator, lokaciju

finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location

kako bi se napravo prvi ovog tipa.

that will actually build the first one of these.

Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,

Kada se napravi prvi

i ukoliko se pokaže da funkcioniše prema predviđanjima,

then it's just clear as day,

onda će biti jasno kao dan, jer je ekonomija, gustina energije,

because the economics, the energy density, are so different

toliko drugačija od nuklearne koju poznajemo.

than nuclear as we know it.

CA: So to understand it right,

KA: Znači, ukoliko sam dobro razumeo, to uključuje gradnju duboko u zemlju

this involves building deep into the ground,

almost like a vertical column of nuclear fuel, of this spent uranium,

skoro kao neka vrsta vertikalnog stuba nuklearnog goriva,

u ovog utrošenog uranijuma,

and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?

i onda proces započinje na vrhu i ide ka dole?

BG: That's right.

BG: Tako je. Danas se uvek reaktor dopunjava gorivom,

Today, you're always refueling the reactor,

tako da imate mnogo ljudi i mnogo kontrola koje mogu načiniti grešku,

so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong,

where you're opening it up and moving things in and out --

na mestu gde se otvara i gde se stvari ubacuju i izbacuju.

that's not good.

A to nije dobro.

So if you have very --

Ako imate veoma jeftino gorivo koje možete usuti za narednih 60 godina -

(Laughter)

very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --

just think of it as a log --

zamislite to kao deblo -

put it down and not have those same complexities.

ubacite unutra i nemate više tih problema.

And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.

To samo postoji unutra i sagoreva narednih 60 godina, dok ne završi.

CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.

KA: To su nuklearne elektrane koje koriste svoj sopstveni otpad kao gorivo.

BG: Yeah; what happens with the waste,

BG: Da. Ono što se dešava sa otpadom,

you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --

možete ga ostaviti tamo - ima mnogo manje otpada ovakvim pristupom -

then you can actually take that

onda, možete ga jednostavno uzeti,

and put it into another one and burn that.

i staviti u drugi reaktor i sagorevati.

And we start out, actually, by taking the waste that exists today

A počinjemo tako što uzimamo postojeći današnji otpad,

that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry-casking by reactors --

koji se nalazi u rashladnim bazenima ili u skladištima u reaktorima.

that's our fuel to begin with.

To je naše gorivo sa kojim počinjemo.

So the thing that's been a problem from those reactors

I sada, ono što je bio problem kod tih reaktora se sada ubacuje u naše,

is actually what gets fed into ours,

and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically

i na taj način se drastično redukuje nivo otpada

as you're going through this process.

kako se ide kroz ovaj proces.

CA: You're talking to different people around the world

KA: U Vašim govorima pred različitim ljudima po celom svetu

about the possibilities.

vezanim za mogućnosti o kojima govorimo,

Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?

gde je najveće interesovanje za stvarnu realizaciju ovoga?

BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place,

BG: Pa, nismo izabrali konkretno mesto,

i svuda postoje razna interesantna pravila

and there's all these interesting disclosure rules

kad god se pomene nešto što sadrži reč "nuklearno",

about anything that's called "nuclear."

tako imamo mnogo interesenata,

So we've got a lot of interest.

People from the company have been in Russia, India, China.

ljudi iz kompanije su bili u Rusiji, Indiji, Kini.

I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,

Ja sam se video sa sekretarom za energetiku ovde,

talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.

razgovarali smo o tome kako se to uklapa u postojeći energetski program.

I ja sam optimističan.

So I'm optimistic.

The French and Japanese have done some work.

Znate da su Francuzi i Japanci uradili već nešto.

This is a variant on something that has been done.

Ovo je varijanta nečega što se već radilo.

It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,

Ovo je značajan napredak, ali je slično brzom reaktoru,

and a lot of countries have built them,

i dosta zemalja ih je već gradilo,

tako da svako ko je napravio brzi reaktor

so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate

je kandidat da bude prvi gde će se graditi ovaj tip.

to be where the first one gets built.

CA: So, in your mind,

KA: I po Vašem mišljenju, vreme i verovatnoća

timescale and likelihood of actually taking something like this live?

da će ovako nešto zbilja zaživeti?

BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things

BG: Pa, potrebni su nam - za jedan od ovih elektro-generatora

that's very cheap,

što je izuzetno jeftino,

we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.

imamo 20 godina da osmislimo i 20 godina da implementiramo.

That's sort of the deadline

To je neka vrsta roka koju nam je dala prirodna sredina

that the environmental models have shown us that we have to meet.

i koji moramo da ostvarimo.

And TerraPower -- if things go well, which is wishing for a lot --

I TerraPower, ako stvari budu tekle kako treba, čemu se nadamo,

bi mogla ostvariti to.

could easily meet that.

And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --

I postoje, na sreću, desetine kompanija,

we need it to be hundreds --

potrebno je da ih bude stotine,

who, likewise, if their science goes well,

koje će se, ukoliko njihova nauka bude napredovala,

if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,

ukoliko fondacije budu finansirale njihove pilot projekte,

that they can compete for this.

takmičiti oko ovoga.

And it's best if multiple succeed,

I najbolje je ako više njih uspe,

because then you could use a mix of these things.

jer ćete onda koristiti kombinaciju ovih stvari.

Definitivno nam je potrebna makar jedna da bismo uspeli.

We certainly need one to succeed.

CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changers,

KA: U terminima mogućih promena velikih razmera koje su u igri,

is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?

da li je ovo najveća po Vašem mišljenju?

BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.

BG: Prodor u energiji je najvažnija stvar.

It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,

Bio bi čak i da ne postoje problemi u prirodnoj sredini,

but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.

ali oni čine ovaj problem još značajnijim.

In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.

U nuklearnom prostoru, postoje drugi inovatori.

You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,

Mi ne poznajemo toliko dobro njihov rad kao što poznajemo naš,

but the modular people, that's a different approach.

ali recimo modulacija, to je drugačiji pristup.

Tu je i reaktor na bazi vode, koji deluje dosta komplikovano,

There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,

but maybe they say that about us.

ali možda i oni to kažu za nas.

And so, there are different ones,

I tako, postoje različiti pristupi,

ali lepota ovoga je ta da molekul uranijuma

but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium

has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal.

ima milion puta više energije od recimo, molekula uglja,

And so, if you can deal with the negatives,

i tako, ukoliko se možete nositi sa negativnim stranama,

kao što je pre svega radijacija,

which are essentially the radiation, the footprint and cost,

a onda i troškovi,

the potential, in terms of effect on land and various things,

potencijalni uticaji na zemlju i druge različite stvari,

is almost in a class of its own.

onda je ovo zaista posebna vrednost za sebe.

CA: If this doesn't work, then what?

KA: A ako to ne uspe, šta onda?

Do we have to start taking emergency measures

Da li ćemo morati da počnemo sa nekim vanrednim merama

to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?

da bismo zadržali stabilnu temperaturu na zemlji?

BG: If you get into that situation,

BG: Ukoliko dođete u takvu situaciju,

it's like if you've been overeating, and you're about to have a heart attack.

to je kao da ste se prejeli, i samo što niste dobili srčani udar.

Then where do you go?

Gde onda idete?

You may need heart surgery or something.

Biće vam potrebna operacija na srcu ili tako nešto.

There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,

Postoji vrsta istraživanja koja se zove geoinženjering,

which are various techniques that would delay the heating

koja se bazira na različitim tehnikama koje bi odložile pregrejavanje

to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.

i na taj način nam kupile 20 do 30 godina da se saberemo.

Now, that's just an insurance policy; you hope you don't need to do that.

E sada, to je samo neka vrsta polise osiguranja.

Nadamo se da neće biti potrebe za njom.

Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy

Neki kažu da uopšte ne treba raditi na polisi osiguranja

because it might make you lazy,

jer se možete ulenjiti,

that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.

jer ćete nastaviti da jedete znajući da će vas operacija srca spasiti.

Nisam siguran da je to mudro, imajući u vidu važnost problema,

I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,

ali postoji diskusija na nivou geoinženjeringa

but there's now the geoengineering discussion

about: Should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,

o tome da li to treba imati u rezervi u slučaju da se stvari odviju brže,

or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?

ili ova inovacija ide dosta sporije nego što očekujemo.

CA: Climate skeptics:

KA: Skepticima o klimatskim problemima:

If you had a sentence or two to say to them,

da imate rečenicu ili dve da im uputite,

kako biste ih ubedili da nisu u pravu?

how might you persuade them that they're wrong?

BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.

BG: Na žalost, skeptici dolaze sa različitih strana.

The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.

Oni koji imaju prave naučne argumente su malobrojni.

Are they saying there's negative feedback effects

Da li oni govore o negativnim povratnim efektima

that have to do with clouds that offset things?

koji imaju veze sa oblacima koji neutralizuju stvari?

There are very, very few things that they can even say

Postoji jako, jako malo stvari koje oni mogu i pomenuti,

šansa je jedan u milion za takvu neku stvar.

there's a chance in a million of those things.

The main problem we have here -- it's kind of like with AIDS:

Glavni problem koji mi ovde imamo je nekako sličan AIDS-u.

you make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.

Napraviš grešku sada, a plaćaš je mnogo kasnije.

And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,

Tako kada imate mnogo različitih hitnih problema,

ideja da sada snosite bol koja će se tek kasnije pokazati kao dobit -

the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,

pomalo postajete nesigurni u to.

and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.

In fact, the IPCC report -- that's not necessarily the worst case,

Zapravo, Izveštaj o klimatskim promenama ne pokazuje da je to nužno najteži slučaj,

and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC and say,

i postoje ljudi u bogatim zemljama koji su pogledali taj izveštaj

i rekli da to nije toliko važna stvar.

"OK, that isn't that big of a deal."

The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.

Činjenica je da je to taj nesiguran deo koji bi trebao da nas pokreće.

But my dream here is that,

Ali moj san je, ukoliko se ovo može učiniti ekonomičnim,

if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints,

i dostići CO2 ograničenja,

then the skeptics say,

onda će skeptici reći, u redu,

"OK, I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,

nije mi važno to što se ne emituje CO2,

I kind of wish it did put out CO2.

nekako bih želeo da se emituje,

But I guess I'll accept it,

ali prihvatiću to jer je jeftinije od onoga prethodnog.

because it's cheaper than what's come before."

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: So that would be your response to the Bjørn Lomborg argument,

KA: Znači, to bi bio Vaš odgovor argumentima Bjorna Lomborga,

basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,

a to je da ukoliko svu energiju utrošite na rešavanje problema sa CO2,

it's going to take away all your other goals

to će ugroziti ostvarivanje drugih važnih ciljeva

of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,

kao što su pokušaji smanjenja siromaštva i malarije i tako dalje,

it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources

i da je to glupo trošenje resursa

to put money towards that

when there are better things we can do.

kada postoje pametnije stvari koje bi trebalo raditi.

BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece --

BG: Stvarni troškovi razvoja i istraživanja -

say the US should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --

recimo SAD treba da potroši 10 milijardi godišnje više nego što trenutno troši -

it's not that dramatic.

to nije toliko dramatična promena.

It shouldn't take away from other things.

Ne bi trebalo da oduzima od drugih stvari.

The thing you get into big money on, and reasonable people can disagree,

Radi se o tome da kada investirate velike pare,

razumni ljudi se možda neće složiti,

is when you have something that's non-economic

na nešto što je ekonomski neisplativo i pokušavate da to finansirate,

and you're trying to fund that --

that, to me, mostly is a waste.

to je, po meni, bacanje para.

Unless you're very close,

Osim ako je to nešto na samoj prekretnici

and you're just funding the learning curve and it's going to get very cheap,

da postane veoma jeftino.

Mislim da bi trebalo da isprobamo više stvari koje imaju potencijal

I believe we should try more things

that have a potential to be far less expensive.

da postanu jeftinije.

If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"

Ako se kompromis koji pravite kreće u tom smeru

da će energija biti superskupa,

then the rich can afford that.

bogati će moći da to sebi priušte.

I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy

Svi mi ovde bismo mogli plaćati pet puta više našu energiju

and not change our lifestyle.

a da to ne utiče na promenu našeg životnog stila.

The disaster is for that two billion.

Ali to bi bila katastrofa za one dve milijarde.

And even Lomborg has changed.

Čak se i Lomborg promenio.

His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"

Njegov glavni adut sada je:

zašto se ne diskutuje malo više o istraživanju i razvoju?

He's still, because of his earlier stuff,

On je još uvek, zbog ranijih stvari,

still associated with the skeptic camp,

povezan sa skepticima,

but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,

ali shvata da su postali prilično usamljeni,

i stoga on ističe ovo u vezi sa istraživanjem i razvojem.

and so, he's making the R&D point.

And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.

I tako tu postoji samo mala nit onoga što ja smatram da je prihvatljivo.

The R&D piece -- it's crazy how little it's funded.

Smešno je koliko malo se investira u istraživanje i razvoj.

CA: Well, Bill, I suspect I speak on behalf of most people here

KA: Bil, verujem da govorim u ime većine ljudi ovde

kada kažem da se zaista nadam da će Vam se želja ispuniti.

to say I really hope your wish comes true.

Thank you so much.

Mnogo hvala.

BG: Thank you.

BG: Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)