Innovating to zero! | Bill Gates

Prevoditelj: Ante Benić Recezent: Ando Saina

I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.

Danas ću govoriti o energiji i klimi.

And that might seem a bit surprising,

To se može činiti malo iznenađujuće jer se

because my full-time work at the foundation

moj glavni posao u fondaciji uglavnom vrti oko cjepiva i sjemena,

is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

about the things that we need to invent and deliver

oko stvari koje trebamo izmisliti i dostaviti

to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

da bismo pomogli da dvije najsiromašnije milijarde žive bolje živote.

But energy and climate are extremely important to these people;

Ali energija i klima su izuzetno važni tim ljudima,

in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

u stvari, važniji su njima nego ikome drugome na planetu.

The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:

Klima se pogoršava, to znači da mnogo godina njihovi usjevi neće roditi.

there will be too much rain, not enough rain;

Biti će previše kiše, ili premalo kiše.

things will change in ways their fragile environment simply can't support.

Stvari će se promijeniti na načine

kakve njihov krhki okoliš jednostavno neće moći podnijeti.

And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

I to vodi ka gladovanju. To vodi u nesigurnost. To vodi u nemire.

So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

Znači, klimatske promjene za njih će biti strašne.

Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

Također, za njih je jako važna cijena energije.

In fact, if you could pick just one thing

U stvari, ako biste mogli izabrati samo jednu stvar kojoj ćete sniziti cijenu

to lower the price of to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

da bi smanjili siromaštvo, to je uvjerljivo energija.

Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

Ipak, cijena energije se snizila tijekom vremena.

Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

Zaista, napredna civilizacija je bazirana na napredku u energetici.

Parna revolucija temeljena na ugljenu pokrenula je industrijsku revoluciju,

The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,

and, even in the 1900s, we've seen a very rapid decline

i, čak i u 1900-tima vidjeli smo veoma nagli pad u cijeni električne energije,

in the price of electricity,

and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning;

i zbog toga mi imamo hladnjake, klima uređaje,

we can make modern materials and do so many things.

možemo stvarati moderne materijale i činiti toliko mnogo stvari.

And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

I tako, imamo predivnu situaciju sa električnom energijom u bogatom svijetu.

But as we make it cheaper -- and let's say,

Ali, kako ona postaje jeftinija, recimo da postane dvaput jeftinija,

let's go for making it twice as cheap --

we need to meet a new constraint,

trebamo upoznati novo ograničenje,

a to ograničenje ima veze sa CO2.

and that constraint has to do with CO2.

CO2 zagrijava planet,

CO2 is warming the planet,

a jednadžba o CO2 je zapravo prilično jednostavna.

and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

Ako zbrojite sav CO2 koji se ispušta,

that leads to a temperature increase,

to vodi do porasta temperature,

and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:

a taj porast temperature vodi do nekih veoma negativnih učinaka.

the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

Učinaka na vrijeme i, možda još i gore, neizravnih učinaka,

u tome da se prirodni ekosustavi ne mogu prilagoditi ovim naglim promjenama,

in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

and so you get ecosystem collapses.

i tako dolazi do kolapsa ekosustava.

Now, the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase of CO2

Sada, točan način kako doći

od određenog porasta koncentracije CO2 do koje temperature će to voditi

to what temperature will be, and where the positive feedbacks are --

i gdje će biti pozitivni učinci,

there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

postoji neka nesigurnost oko toga, ali ne prevelika.

And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

Sigurno da postoji i nesigurnost o tome koliko loši će biti ovi učinci,

but they will be extremely bad.

ali biti će ekstremno loši.

I asked the top scientists on this several times:

Nekoliko puta sam pitao vrhunske znanstvenike,

Do we really have to get down to near zero?

trebamo li zbilja ići dolje do oko nulte emisije?

Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

Ne možemo li ju samo smanjiti na polovicu ili na četvrtinu?

And the answer is, until we get near to zero,

A odgovor je bio, dok ne dođemo oko nule,

the temperature will continue to rise.

temperature će nastaviti rasti.

And so that's a big challenge.

I to je taj veliki izazov.

It's very different than saying,

Nije da smo 4 m visok kamion koji pokušava proći ispod 3.5 m visokog mosta

"We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

pa se možemo takoreći provući ispod.

and we can just sort of squeeze under."

This is something that has to get to zero.

Ovo je nešto što mora doći do nule.

Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year --

E sad, mi svake godine ispuštamo mnogo ugljičnog dioksida,

over 26 billion tons.

preko 26 milijardi tona.

For each American, it's about 20 tons.

To je oko 20 tona po svakom Amerikancu.

For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

Za ljude u siromašnim zemljama taj broj iznosi manje od 1 tone.

It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

U prosjeku to iznosi oko 5 tona po svakoj osobi na planetu.

And somehow, we have to make changes that will bring that down to zero.

Nekako moramo napraviti promjene

koje će to smanjiti na nulu.

It's been constantly going up.

Emisija danas stalno raste.

Samo su ju razne ekonomske promjene uspjele malo usporiti,

It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

so we have to go from rapidly rising to falling,

tako da moramo doći od naglog rasta

do pada, i to pada sve do nule.

and falling all the way to zero.

This equation has four factors, a little bit of multiplication.

Ta jednadžba ima četiri faktora.

I malo množenja.

So you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

Znači, na lijevoj strani imamo CO2 kojeg želimo dovesti do nule

i koji ovisi o broju ljudi,

and that's going to be based on the number of people,

the services each person is using on average,

uslugama koje svaka osoba prosječno koristi,

the energy, on average, for each service,

prosječnoj energiji po usluzi,

and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

i količini CO2 koja se ispušta po jedinici energije.

So let's look at each one of these,

Idemo pogledati svaki od ovih faktora

and see how we can get this down to zero.

da vidimo kako ih možemo dovesti do nule.

Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

Vjerojatno će jedan od ovih brojeva trebati doći poprilično blizu nuli.

(Laughter)

Znam da je to matematika još iz srednje škole,

That's back from high school algebra.

But let's take a look.

ali pogledajmo.

First, we've got population.

Za početak imamo stanovništvo

The world today has 6.8 billion people.

Danas svijet ima 6.8 milijardi ljudi.

That's headed up to about nine billion.

Predviđa se da će taj broj rasti do negdje oko 9 milijardi.

Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

E sad, ako napravimo dobar posao sa novim cjepivima,

health care, reproductive health services,

zdravstvenom skrbi, poboljšanjem reproduktivnog zdravlja,

mogli bi smanjiti taj broj za možda 10 ili 15 posto,

we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent.

But there, we see an increase of about 1.3.

ali ipak vidimo porast od oko 1.3.

The second factor is the services we use.

Drugi faktor su usluge koje koristimo.

This encompasses everything:

Ovo obuhvaća sve,

the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

hranu koju jedemo, odjeću, televiziju, grijanje.

To su sve jako dobre stvari,

These are very good things.

Getting rid of poverty means providing these services

a rješiti se siromaštva znači omogućiti ove usluge

to almost everyone on the planet.

gotovo svima na planetu.

And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

Zato je odlična stvar podizanje ove vrijednosti.

In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

U bogatom svijetu, možda u najvišoj milijardi,

we probably could cut back and use less,

vjerovatno možemo nešto srezati i koristiti manje,

but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

ali svake godine će ovaj broj, u prosjeku, rasti,

i tako će se, na kraju svega više nego udvostručiti

and so, overall, that will more than double

the services delivered per person.

usluge dostupne po osobi.

Here we have a very basic service:

Ovdje imamo jednu osnovnu uslugu.

Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

Imate li struju u Vašoj kući da možete raditi svoju domaću zadaću,

And, in fact, these kids don't,

ova djeca je nemaju, pa idu vani

so they're going out and reading their schoolwork

i pišu svoje školske zadaće pod uličnim lampama.

under the street lamps.

Now, efficiency, "E," the energy for each service --

Znači učinkovitost, E, energija po svakoj usluzi,

here, finally we have some good news.

ovdje napokon imamo neke dobre vijesti.

We have something that's not going up.

Ovdje imamo nešto što neće rasti.

Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

Kroz razne izume i druge načine za poboljšanje rasvjete,

through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --

kroz drugačije tipove automobila, druge načine gradnje zgrada.

there are a lot of services

Postoje mnoge usluge gdje se može

where you can bring the energy for that service down

prilično smanjiti energija za nju,

quite substantially.

Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

u nekim slučajevima je čak spustiti za 90 posto.

There are other services, like how we make fertilizer,

Postoje druge stvari, na primjer način na koji radimo gnojivo,

ili kako provodimo zračni transport,

or how we do air transport,

where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

gdje je prostor za poboljšanje puno, puno manji.

And so overall, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction

I tako, ukupno gledajući, ako smo optimistični

možemo postići smanjenje tri do čak šest puta.

of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

But for these first three factors now,

Ali za ova tri prva čimbenika,

we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

otišli smo od 26 milijardi do, u najboljem slučaju, 13 milijardi tona,

and that just won't cut it.

i to jednostavno neće proći.

So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one --

Pogledajmo, znači, ovaj četvrti čimbenik-

on će biti ključan-

and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

a to je količina CO2 ispuštena po svakoj jedinici energije.

So the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

Pitanje je, na kraju, možemo li zaista spustiti to na nulu?

If you burn coal, no.

Ako izgaramo ugljen, ne.

If you burn natural gas, no.

Ako izgaramo prirodni plin, ne.

Almost every way we make electricity today,

Gotovo svaki način na koji danas proizvodimo električnu energiju,

except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

izuzev nuklearnih i rastućih obnovljivih izvora, ispušta CO2.

And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

Znači da ćemo na globalnoj razini

is create a new system.

morati stvoriti novi sustav.

So we need energy miracles.

I tako, trebaju nam energetska čuda.

Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

Ipak, kada koristim izraz "čudo", ne mislim na nešto nemoguće.

Mikroprocesor je čudo. Osobno računalo je čudo.

The microprocessor is a miracle.

The personal computer is a miracle.

The Internet and its services are a miracle.

Internet i njegovi servisi su čudo.

So the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

Ljudi ovdje sudjelovali su u stvaranju mnogih čuda.

Usually, we don't have a deadline

Obično nemamo rok

where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

na način da moramo smisliti čudo do nekog određenog datuma.

Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

Obično samo čekate i neka dođu, a neka ne.

This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed

Ovo je slučaj kada zapravo moramo ići punom brzinom

and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.

i doći do čuda u prilično kratkom vremenskom roku.

Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?

I tako sam pomislio, kako to zbilja možemo postići?

Is there some kind of natural illustration,

Postoji li neka vrsta prirodne slike,

some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

neka demonstracija koja bi zaokupila ljudsku maštu?

I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitoes,

Otišao sam u mislima prije godinu dana, kada sam donio komarce,

and somehow people enjoyed that.

i ljudi su na neki način uživali u tome.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It really got them involved in the idea of, you know,

To ih je zbilja unijelo u ideju da,

znate, zbilja postoje ljudi koji žive s komarcima.

there are people who live with mosquitoes.

With energy, all I could come up with is this.

Što se tiče energije, sve što sam mogao smisliti je ovo.

I decided that releasing fireflies

Odlučio sam da će puštanje krijesnica

would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

biti moj doprinos okolišu ove godine.

So here we have some natural fireflies.

Ovdje imamo prirodne krijesnice

I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

Rečeno mi je da ne grizu, u stvari mogle bi čak i ostati u staklenci.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Danas postoji velik broj ovakvih varljivih rješenja,

Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,

but they don't really add up to much.

ali oni zbilja ne pomažu puno.

We need solutions, either one or several,

Nama trebaju rješenja, jedno ili više njih,

that have unbelievable scale and unbelievable reliability.

koja imaju nevjerovatnu veličinu

i nevjerovatnu pouzdanost.

And although there's many directions that people are seeking,

i, unatoč tome što ljudi tragaju u mnogim smjerovima,

I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

ja vidim samo pet smjerova koji mogu postići ovako velike brojeve.

I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

Izostavio sam energiju plime, geotermalnu energiju, fuziju i biogoriva.

Those may make some contribution,

Oni možda mogu dati neki doprinos,

and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better.

i ako budu bolji od mojih očekivanja, tim bolje,

ali moja je poanta

But my key point here is that we're going to have to work on

u tome da ćemo morati raditi na svakom od ovih pet,

each of these five,

and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

i ne možemo odustati od bilo kojeg od njih jer izgleda obeshrabrujuće,

because they all have significant challenges.

jer svi oni imaju značajne izazove.

Let's look first at burning fossil fuels,

Pogledajmo prvo izgaranje fosilnih goriva,

either burning coal or burning natural gas.

bilo da ložimo ugljen ili prirodni plin.

What you need to do there seems like it might be simple, but it's not.

Ono što trebate učiniti ovdje, čini se jednostavno, ali nije,

je uzeti sav CO2 ispusten nakon izgaranja,

And that's to take all the CO2,

after you've burned it, going out the flue,

pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,

stlačiti ga, pretvoriti u tekućinu, spremiti ga negdje

and hope it stays there.

i nadati se da će ostati ondje.

Now, we have some pilot things

Danas imamo neke pilot projekte koji čine ovo do 60 ili 80 posto,

that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level.

But getting up to that full percentage -- that will be very tricky.

ali podizanje toga na puni postotak, to će biti jako zeznuto,

And agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,

i dogovaranje o tome gdje bi te količine CO2 trebale biti smještene biti će teško,

but the toughest one here is this long-term issue:

ali najteži dio ovdje je dugoročni problem.

Who's going to be sure?

Tko će biti siguran?

Who's going to guarantee

Tko će garantirati za nešto što je doslovno milijardu puta veće

something that is literally billions of times larger

than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?

nego bilo koji tip otpada na koji mislite kad govorite o nuklearnom i drugom otpadu?

This is a lot of volume.

To je veliki obujam.

So that's a tough one.

Znači to je težak problem.

Next would be nuclear.

Sljedeća bi bila nuklearna energija.

It also has three big problems:

Ona također ima tri velika problema.

cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;

Cijena, osobito u zemljama sa strogo uređenim pravilima, je velika.

the issue of safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,

Pitanje sigurnosti, da se zbilja osjećamo dobro i da ništa ne može poći krivo,

that, even though you have these human operators,

da, čak i ako imamo ove ljudske operatore,

the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

da gorivo ne bude iskorišteno kao oružje.

And then what do you do with the waste?

I na kraju, što uraditi sa otpadom?

Although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.

i, iako to nisu velike količine, postoji velika zabrinutost oko toga.

Ljudi se trebaju osjećati dobro u vezi toga.

People need to feel good about it.

So three very tough problems that might be solvable,

Znači tri veoma teška problema koja mogu biti rješiva,

and so, should be worked on.

i zato bi se trebalo raditi na njima.

The last three of the five, I've grouped together.

Grupirao sam zajedno, ovo zadnje troje od pet.

These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.

Ovo je ono što ljudi često spominju kao obnovljive izvore.

And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --

A oni zapravo-iako je odlično to što ne trebaju gorivo-

they have some disadvantages.

oni imaju neke nedostatke.

One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies

Jedan je da je gustoća energije prikupljene ovim tehnologijama

is dramatically less than a power plant.

dramatično manja nego ona elektrane.

This is energy farming,

Ovo je tzv."energy farming", govorimo o mnogo četvornih milja,

so you're talking about many square miles, thousands of times more area

područja tisuću puta većem od onoga o čemu mislite kao o normalnoj elektrani.

than you think of as a normal energy plant.

Also, these are intermittent sources.

Također, ovi izvori su nepredvidivi.

The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,

Sunce ne sjaji cijeli dan, i ne sjaji svaki dan,

and likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.

i, slično, vjetar ne puše cijelo vrijeme.

And so, if you depend on these sources,

I tako, ako ovisite o ovim izvorima,

you have to have some way of getting the energy

morate imati neki način dobivanja energije

during those time periods that it's not available.

tijekom tih perioda u kojima nije dostupna.

So we've got big cost challenges here.

Znači, ovdje imamo velike izazove glede cijene.

We have transmission challenges;

Imamo izazove u prijenosu energije.

for example, say this energy source is outside your country,

Na primjer, recimo da je taj izvor energije izvan vaše zemlje,

onda vam ne treba samo tehnologija,

you not only need the technology,

nego se morate nositi sa rizikom zbog energije koja dolazi izvana.

but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.

And, finally, this storage problem.

I na kraju, problem skladištenja.

Da vam prikažem ovo, prošao sam i pogledao

To dimensionalize this,

I went through and looked at all the types of batteries made --

sve vrste baterija koje proizvodimo,

for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --

za automobile, za računala, za mobitele, za baterijske svjetiljke, za sve;

and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses.

usporedio sam to sa količinom električne energije koju svijet koristi

What I found is that all the batteries we make now

i shvatio sam da sve baterije koje sada proizvodimo

could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.

mogu spremiti manje od 10 minuta te energije.

And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,

I tako, zapravo, trebamo veliko otkriće u ovom području,

something that's going to be a factor of 100 better

nešto što će biti sto puta bolje

than the approaches we have now.

nego pristup koji danas imamo.

It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.

To nije nemoguće, ali nije tako jednostavno.

Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source

Ovo se javlja kad probate upotrijebiti nepredvidive izore

to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.

da budu, recimo, 20 ili 30 posto onoga što koristite.

If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

Ako računate na njih za sto posto,

trebate nevjerojatnu čudesnu bateriju.

you need an incredible miracle battery.

Now, how are we going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?

Znači, kako ćemo ići dalje; koji je pravi pristup?

Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?

Je li to Manhattan project? Što je to što nas može odvesti tamo?

Well, we need lots of companies working on this -- hundreds.

Pa, trebamo mnogo kompanija koje će raditi na ovome, stotine.

In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.

Za svaki od ovih pet pristupa trebamo barem sto ljudi.

A lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy."

I za mnogo njih, pogledat ćete ih i reći da su ludi. To je dobro.

That's good.

And, I think, here in the TED group,

Ja mislim da, ovdje u TED grupi,

we have many people who are already pursuing this.

imamo mnogo ljudi koji veće teže ovome.

Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar

Bill Gross ima nekoliko tvrtki, uključujući jednu zvanu eSolar

that has some great solar thermal technologies.

koja ima odlične solarno-termalne tehnologije.

Vinod Khosla ulaže u desetke kompanija

Vinod Khosla is investing in dozens of companies

that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,

koje rade velike stvari i imaju zanimljive mogućnosti,

and I'm trying to help back that.

i pokušavam podržati to.

Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company

Nathan Myhrvold i ja zapravo podržavamo kompaniju

that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.

koja, možda iznenađujuće, ide na nuklearni pristup.

There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.

Postoje neke inovacije na polju nuklearne energije: na primjer modularna, tekuća .

Innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,

A inovacije u ovoj industriji stale su prije dosta vremena,

so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around

tako da ideja da neke dobre ideje leže okolo i nije toliko iznenađujuća.

is not all that surprising.

The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --

Ideja iz Terrapower-a je da, umjesto da izgaramo dio urana,

the one percent, which is the U235 --

onaj jedan posto koji je U235,

we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."

odlučili smo, idemo izgarati 99 posto, uran 238.

It is kind of a crazy idea.

To je pomalo luda ideja.

In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,

U stvari, ljudi pričaju o tome već dugo vremena,

but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,

ali nikad nisu mogli točno simulirati bi li to radilo ili ne,

and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers

i tako se kroz uspon modernih superračunala

that now you can simulate and see that, yes,

sada to može simulirati i vidjeti da bi,

with the right materials approach, this looks like it would work.

sa pravim materijalima i pristupom, ova ideja izgleda radila.

And because you're burning that 99 percent,

I zbog toga što izgarate tih 99 posto,

you have greatly improved cost profile.

značajno ste poboljšali cijenu.

You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel

Zapravo izgarate otpad, i možete koristiti kao gorivo

all the leftover waste from today's reactors.

sve ostatke iz današnjih reaktora.

So instead of worrying about them, you just take that, it's a great thing.

I tako, umjesto da se brinete zbog toga, koristite ga. To je odlična stvar.

It breeds this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.

Udiše ovaj uran dok djeluje. Kao neka vrsta svijeće.

You see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.

Možete vidjeti ovaj valjak ovdje, često se spominje kao reaktor putujućih valova.

In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.

Ako govorimo o gorivu, ovo zbilja rješava problem.

I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.

Ovdje imam sliku mjesta u Kentuckyu.

This is the leftover, the 99 percent,

Ovo je ostatak goriva, 99 posto,

where they've taken out the part they burn now,

iz kojeg su izvukli dio koji danas troše,

pa se zove osiromašeni uran.

so it's called depleted uranium.

That would power the US for hundreds of years.

Ovo bi pokretalo SAD stotinama godina.

And simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,

I samo kroz filtriranje morske vode u jeftinom postupku,

dobili biste dovoljno goriva za cijeli preostali vijek planeta.

you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.

So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,

Znate, ovo ima mnoge izazove pred sobom,

but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas

ali je primjer mnogih stotina i stotina ideja

that we need to move forward.

koje trebamo da krenemo naprijed.

So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?

Razmislimo, kako da se ocjenimo?

What should our report card look like?

Kako bi naš izvještaj trebao izgledati?

Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,

Dođimo do te točke do koje trebamo doći

and then look at the intermediate.

i onda pogledajmo sredinu.

For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.

Čuli ste mnoge ljude kako govore o tom 80% smanjenju do 2050.

To je zbilja važno, da dođemo do toga.

That really is very important, that we get there.

And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries --

A onih 20 posto biti će korišteno za zbivanja u siromašnim zemljama

still some agriculture; hopefully, we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.

i nešto zemljoradnje.

Nadamo se da ćemo do tada rješiti problem šumarstva, cementa.

So, to get to that 80 percent,

Znači, da bi došli do tih 80 posto,

the developed countries, including countries like China,

razvijene zemlje, uključujući i zemlje poput Kine,

will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.

će morati promijeniti svoju cjelokupnu električnu generaciju.

The other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,

Druga stvar je razvijamo li mi tu tehnologiju nulte emisije,

have we deployed it in all the developed countries

jesmo li je razvili u svim razvijenim zemljama

and are in the process of getting it elsewhere?

i jesmo li u procesu širenja te tehnologije.

That's super important.

To je jako važno.

That's a key element of making that report card.

To je ključni element u izradi tog izvještaja.

Backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?

Znači, da se vratimo natrag, kako bi izvještaj iz 2020. trebao izgledati?

Well, again, it should have the two elements.

On bi, također, trebao imati dva elementa.

We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:

Trebali bismo proći kroz mjere učinkovitosti da dođemo do ušteda.

The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,

Što manje ispuštamo, manja će biti količina CO2,

and therefore, the less the temperature.

i, uslijed toga, temperatura će biti niža.

But in some ways, the grade we get there,

Ali na neki način, ocjena koju dobijemo ovdje,

doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,

čineći stvari koje nas ne dovode do konačne velike uštede,

je jednako, ili čak i malo manje važna, od druge ocjene,

is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,

which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.

one za inovacije koje će postići napredak.

These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,

Trebamo taj napredak da krenemo punom brzinom,

a to možemo mjeriti u broju kompanija,

and we can measure that in terms of companies,

pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.

novih projekata, regulacija koje su se promjenile.

There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.

Mnoge su sjajne knjige napisane o ovome.

The Al Gore book, "Our Choice,"

Al Gore - "Our choice" ("Naš izbor")

and the David MacKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."

knjiga Davida McKaya "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air" ("Održiva energija - bez brbljanja")

They really go through it and create a framework

One zbilja ulaze u taj problem i kreiraju okvir

o tome da možemo govoriti o ovome u širokim krugovima,

that this can be discussed broadly,

because we need broad backing for this.

jer nam za ovo treba velika potpora.

There's a lot that has to come together.

Mnoge se stvari moraju posložiti.

So this is a wish.

Tako da je ovo želja.

It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.

Veome stvarna želja je da izumimo ovu tehnologiju.

If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --

Da imam samo jednu želju za sljedećih 50 godina,

I could pick who's president,

mogu izabrati tko će biti predsjednik,

I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,

mogu izabrati cjepiva, a to je nešto što volim,

or I could pick that this thing

ili mogu izabrati da ova stvar,

that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --

a to je smanjenje cijene energije za pola bez izbacivanja CO2, bude izmišljena,

this is the wish I would pick.

to je želja koju bih odabrao.

This is the one with the greatest impact.

To je želja sa najvećim utjecajem.

If we don't get this wish,

Ako ne dobijemo ovu želju

the division between the people who think short term and long term

rascjep između ljudi koji misle na duge i kratke staze biti će strašan,

will be terrible,

between the US and China, between poor countries and rich,

između SAD-a i Kine, između bogatih i siromašnih zemalja,

and most of all,

a najgore je da će život one najsiromašnije dvije milijarde biti značajno lošiji.

the lives of those two billion will be far worse.

So what do we have to do?

Onda, što trebamo učiniti?

What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?

Što vam nudim da istupite i pokrenete se?

We need to go for more research funding.

Treba nam više novca za financiranje istraživanja.

When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,

Kada se zemlje skupe na skupovima poput Kopenhagena

ne bi trebali raspravljati samo o CO2.

they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.

They should discuss this innovation agenda.

Trebali bi raspravljati o ovom inovativnom pokretu,

You'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending

a bili biste zapanjeni koliko je smješno mala potrošnja

on these innovative approaches.

na ove inovativne pristupe.

We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --

Trebamo burzovne poticaje, poreze na CO2, ograničenja i trgovinu,

something that gets that price signal out there.

nešto što će pokazati tu cijenu uspjeha.

We need to get the message out.

Trebamo proširiti poruku.

We need to have this dialogue be a more rational,

Potreban nam je racionalniji dijalog, dijalog koji se lakše razumije,

more understandable dialogue,

including the steps that the government takes.

uključujući i korake koje poduzima vlada.

This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.

To je važna želja, ali mislim da je to želja koju možemo ispuniti.

Thank you.

Hvala Vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

(Applause ends)

Thank you.

Hvala Vam.

Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.

Chris Anderson: Hvala. Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: Thank you.

Hvala ti. Samo da malo bolje shvatim ovaj Terrapower projekt, znači -

So to understand more about TerraPower.

I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?

Mislim, za početak, možeš li nam dati neku procjenu o veličini ove investicije?

Bill Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,

Bill Gates: Sam program, kupnja superračunala,

hire all the great scientists, which we've done,

zapošljavanje svih sjajnih znanstvenika, što smo već učinili,

that's only tens of millions.

to je samo desetak milijuna,

And even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor

i čak kad testiramo naš materijal u ruskom reaktoru

da se uvjerimo da radi ispravno,

to make sure our materials work properly,

then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.

onda ćemo govoriti samo o stotinama milijuna.

The tough thing is building the pilot reactor --

Težak dio je gradnja probnog reaktora,

finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location

prikupljanje nekoliko milijardi, traženje pravila, lokacije

that will actually build the first one of these.

na kojoj će se zapravo izgraditi prvi takav reaktor

Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,

Jednom kad se taj prvi izgradi, ako bude radio kao što je planirano,

then it's just clear as day,

onda je sve jasno kao dan, jer su ekonomičnost i gustoća energije

because the economics, the energy density, are so different

znatno drugačiji od onih nuklearki koje znamo.

than nuclear as we know it.

CA: So to understand it right,

CA: Znači, da vidim jesam li shvatio, to uključuje kopanje duboko u zemlju,

this involves building deep into the ground,

almost like a vertical column of nuclear fuel, of this spent uranium,

gotovo nešto kao okomiti stupac nuklearnog goriva,

tog potrošenog i osiromašenog urana,

and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?

a potom postupak počinje na vrhu i napreduje prema dnu?

BG: That's right.

BG: To je točno. Danas stalno punite reaktore,

Today, you're always refueling the reactor,

so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong,

tako da imate mnogo ljudi i mnogo stvari koje mogu poći krivo,

where you're opening it up and moving things in and out --

to kada otvarate reaktor i mičete stvari van i unutra.

that's not good.

To nije dobro.

So if you have very --

Tako da ako imate veoma jeftino gorivo koje možete staviti unutra na 60 godina -

(Laughter)

very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --

just think of it as a log --

mislite o tome kao o cjepanici -

put it down and not have those same complexities.

stavite ga dolje i nemate svu tu složenost.

And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.

I ono samo tamo stoji i izgara šezdeset godina dok nije gotovo.

CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.

CA: To je nukleana elektrana koja je svoje vlastitio rješenje za zbrinjavanje otpada.

BG: Yeah; what happens with the waste,

BG: Da. Mislim, što se događa s otpadom,

you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --

možete ga pustiti da stoji tamo - mnogo je manje otpada na ovakav način -

then you can actually take that

onda zapravo možete uzeti to

and put it into another one and burn that.

i staviti ga u drugi reaktor i iskoristiti.

And we start out, actually, by taking the waste that exists today

A počinjemo zapravo uzimajući otpad koji postoji danas,

that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry-casking by reactors --

koji je u tim bazenima za hlađenje ili suhim skladištima uz reaktore.

that's our fuel to begin with.

To je gorivo s kojim počinjemo.

So the thing that's been a problem from those reactors

Znači stvar koja je bila problem tih reaktora

is actually what gets fed into ours,

je ono što zapravo pogoni naše,

and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically

i prilično dramatično smanjujete količinu otpada

as you're going through this process.

kako prolazite kroz ovaj postupak.

CA: You're talking to different people around the world

CA: U svojim razgovorima sa raznim ljudima diljem svijeta

o mogućnostima ovog postupka,

about the possibilities.

Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?

gdje su najviše zainteresirani da stvarno naprave nešto ovakvo?

BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place,

BG: Pa, nismo izabrali određeno mjesto,

a tu su i sva ta zanimljiva pravila o razotkrivanju svega što se naziva nuklearnim,

and there's all these interesting disclosure rules

about anything that's called "nuclear."

So we've got a lot of interest.

tako da imamo mnogo interesa,

People from the company have been in Russia, India, China.

ljudi iz tvrtke bili su u Rusiji, Indiji i Kini.

I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,

Bio sam kod ovdašnjeg tajnika za energiju,

talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.

govoreći o tome kako se ovo uklapa u energetsku politiku.

So I'm optimistic.

Tako da sam optimističan. Znate da su Francuzi i Japanci napravili nešto posla.

The French and Japanese have done some work.

This is a variant on something that has been done.

To je varijanta za nešto što je već napravljeno.

It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,

To je važan napredak, ali je poput brzog reaktora,

and a lot of countries have built them,

a mnoge zemlje su ih izgradile,

so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate

tako da je svatko tko je napravio brzi reaktor kandidat za gradnju prvog reaktora.

to be where the first one gets built.

CA: So, in your mind,

CA: Znači, po tvom mišljenju, vremenska skala i vjerojatnost

timescale and likelihood of actually taking something like this live?

da se nešto ovakvo zbilja poduzme su dobre?

BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things

BG: Pa, recimo, za jednog od tih naprednih elektro-generatora

koji moraju biti veoma jeftini,

that's very cheap,

we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.

imamo 20 godina da ih izumimo i onda 20 godina da ih stavimo u upotrebu.

That's sort of the deadline

To je neka vrsta krajnjeg roka koji su nam modeli okoliša

that the environmental models have shown us that we have to meet.

pokazali da ih se moramo držati.

And TerraPower -- if things go well, which is wishing for a lot --

I, znate, Terrapower, ako stvari prođu u najboljem redu, što svi jako želimo,

bi lako mogao zadovoljiti taj rok.

could easily meet that.

And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --

Danas, srećom, postoje deseci kompanija,

we need it to be hundreds --

ali nama trebaju stotine kompanija,

who, likewise, if their science goes well,

koje će se, također, ako njihove ideje prođu dobro,

if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,

ako bude uspješnog financiranja njihovih probnih projekata,

that they can compete for this.

moći natjecati u postizanju tog cilja.

And it's best if multiple succeed,

Najbolje bi bilo ako više njih uspije,

because then you could use a mix of these things.

zato jer onda možete koristiti mješavinu svih tih stvari.

We certainly need one to succeed.

Definitivno nam treba jedna koja će uspjeti.

CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changers,

CA: Ako govorimo o velikoj promjeni u "načinu igre",

is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?

je li ovo najveća moguća koja postoji, a za koju Vi znate?

BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.

BG: Veliki napredak u energetici je najvažnija stvar.

It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,

Bilo bi tako i bez ekoloških problema,

ali ekološki problemi samo uvećavaju njegov značaj.

but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.

In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.

Postoje i druge inovacije, ako govorimo o nuklearnoj energiji.

You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,

Znate, ne znamo njihov rad tako dobro kao ovaj ovdje,

but the modular people, that's a different approach.

ali modularni tip reaktora, to je drugačiji pristup.

Postoji i tekući tip reaktora, koji se čini malo teži,

There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,

but maybe they say that about us.

ali možda to oni govore za nas.

And so, there are different ones,

I tako, postoje mnogi pristupi,

but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium

ali ljepota svega je u tome da molekula urana

has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal.

ima milijun puta više energije nego recimo molekula ugljena,

And so, if you can deal with the negatives,

i na taj način, ako se možemo nositi sa negativnim stranama,

koje su u osnovi zračenje,

which are essentially the radiation, the footprint and cost,

utjecaj na okoliš i cijena; potencijal

the potential, in terms of effect on land and various things,

na razini učinka na okoliš i ostalim stvarima

is almost in a class of its own.

jest gotovo klasa za sebe.

CA: A ako ovo ne bude radilo, što tada?

CA: If this doesn't work, then what?

Do we have to start taking emergency measures

Trebamo li početi sa izvanrednim mjerama

to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?

da pokušamo održati temperaturu Zemlje stabilnom?

BG: If you get into that situation,

BG: Ako dođe do te situacije,

it's like if you've been overeating, and you're about to have a heart attack.

to je kao da ste se prežderavali i sada vam prijeti srčani udar.

Then where do you go?

Gdje onda idete? Tada trebate operaciju srca ili nešto drugo.

You may need heart surgery or something.

There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,

Postolji polje koje se zove geoinžinjering

which are various techniques that would delay the heating

koje se sastoji od raznih tehnika koje bi odgodile zagrijavanje

to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.

te nam kupile 20 ili 30 godina da se saberemo.

Now, that's just an insurance policy; you hope you don't need to do that.

Ipak, to je tu samo za osiguranje.

Nadamo se da to nećemo trebati koristiti.

Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy

Neki ljudi govore da ne bi trebali uopće raditi na tom osiguranju

jer nas može učiniti lijenima,

because it might make you lazy,

na način da ćete nastaviti jesti jer znate da će vas operacija spasiti.

that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.

Nisam siguran koliko je to mudro ako uvidimo važnost problema,

I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,

ali danas postoji rasprava među geoinžinjerima

but there's now the geoengineering discussion

about: Should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,

o tome treba li ovaj pristup biti u pričuvi za slučaj da se stvari ubrzaju,

or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?

ili će taj pristup ići mnogo sporije nego što mi očekujemo.

CA: Climate skeptics:

CA: Skeptici u vezi klimatskih promjena: ako im možete reći rečenicu ili dvije,

If you had a sentence or two to say to them,

kako bi ih mogli uvjeriti da su u krivu?

how might you persuade them that they're wrong?

BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.

BG: Nažalost, skeptici dolaze sa različitih strana.

The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.

Vrlo je malo onih koji daju znanstvene argumente.

Are they saying there's negative feedback effects

Govore li oni da postoje negativni povratni efekti

that have to do with clouds that offset things?

koji utječu na oblake i remete stvari?

There are very, very few things that they can even say

Postoji malo, jako malo stvari za koje oni mogu uopće reći

da postoji jedan u milijun šansa da se dogode.

there's a chance in a million of those things.

The main problem we have here -- it's kind of like with AIDS:

Glavni problem koji imamo je nešto poput AIDS-a.

you make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.

Pogriješite danas i platite za to mnogo kasnije.

And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,

I tako, kada govorimo o svim oblicima hitnih problema,

the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,

ideja je prihvaćanje žrtve danas koja vodi do dobitka kasnije -

još k tome i nesigurne žrtve.

and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.

In fact, the IPCC report -- that's not necessarily the worst case,

U stvari, u izvještaju Međuvladinog panela o klimatskim promjenama (IPCC) to nije najgora stvar,

and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC and say,

i postoje ljudi u bogatom svijetu koji gledaju IPCC

i kažu, dobro, to nije tako velik problem.

"OK, that isn't that big of a deal."

The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.

Stvar je u tome da nas je ovaj nesigurni dio trebao gurati naprijed.

But my dream here is that,

Ali moj san je da, ako ga možemo učiniti ekonomičnim,

if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints,

i biti unutar ograničenja CO2,

then the skeptics say,

skeptici će reći, u redu,

"OK, I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,

nije me briga što ne ispušta CO2,

I kind of wish it did put out CO2.

čak bi i htio da ispušta CO2,

But I guess I'll accept it,

ali mislim da ću ga prihvatiti jer je jeftiniji nego ono što je bilo prije.

because it's cheaper than what's come before."

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: Znači to bi bio Vaš odgovor na izjavu Bjorna Lomborga

CA: So that would be your response to the Bjørn Lomborg argument,

basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,

da ćete, ako ulažete sve svoje napore u pokušaje rješavanja poblema sa CO2,

it's going to take away all your other goals

zaboraviti sve druge ciljeve

of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,

poput iskorjenjivanja siromaštva, malarije i tako dalje;

it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources

te da je glup gubitak Zemljinih resursa ulagati novac u to

to put money towards that

when there are better things we can do.

kad postoje bolje stvari koje možemo učiniti.

BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece --

BG: Zapravo, trošak na istraživanje i razvoj -

say the US should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --

recimo da bi SAD trebale trošiti 10 milijardi na godinu više nego danas -

it's not that dramatic.

to nije toliko dramatično.

It shouldn't take away from other things.

Ne bi trebalo uzimati drugim stvarima.

The thing you get into big money on, and reasonable people can disagree,

Stvar u koju ulažete mnogo novca, razumni ljudi se ne moraju složiti,

is when you have something that's non-economic

je kada imate nešto što nije ekonomski isplativo i vi to pokušavate financirati.

and you're trying to fund that --

Po meni to je, ugalvnom, besmisleno.

that, to me, mostly is a waste.

Unless you're very close,

Osim ako niste jako blizu rezultatu i financirate samo razvoj znanja

and you're just funding the learning curve and it's going to get very cheap,

koje će postati jeftinije.

I believe we should try more things

Vjerujem da trebamo iskušavati više stvari koje imaju potencijal

that have a potential to be far less expensive.

da budu daleko jeftinije.

If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"

Ako je razmjena u koju uđete - učinimo energiju super skupom,

then the rich can afford that.

onda bogati to mogu priuštiti.

I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy

To što želim reći je, svi mi mogli bi platiti pet puta više za našu energiju

and not change our lifestyle.

i ne promijeniti naš stil života.

The disaster is for that two billion.

Katastrofa je za one dvije milijarde.

And even Lomborg has changed.

Čak se je i Lomborg promjenio.

His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"

Sada je njegovo razmišljanje zašto se ne raspravlja više o istraživanju i razvoju.

He's still, because of his earlier stuff,

Još je uvijek, zbog ranijih stvari,

still associated with the skeptic camp,

povezan sa taborom skeptika,

but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,

ali je shvatio da je to prilično osamljen kamp,

and so, he's making the R&D point.

i zato govori o istraživanju i razvoju.

And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.

Mislim da tu ima nečega prikladnog.

The R&D piece -- it's crazy how little it's funded.

Istraživanje i razvoj, ludo je kako malo novca dobiva.

CA: Well, Bill, I suspect I speak on behalf of most people here

CA: Bill, mislim da govorim u ime većine ljudi ovdje

kad kažem da se zbilja nadam da će se tvoja želja ostvariti. Hvala ti puno.

to say I really hope your wish comes true.

Thank you so much.

BG: Hvala vama.

BG: Thank you.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)