Why the universe seems so strange | Richard Dawkins

Prevodilac: Stevan Radanovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

My title: "Queerer than we can suppose: the strangeness of science."

Naslov mog predavanja: "Neobičnije nego što možemo pretpostaviti. Čudnovatost nauke."

"Queerer than we can suppose" comes from J.B.S. Haldane, the famous biologist,

"Neobičnije nego što možemo pretpostaviti" potiče od Dž.B.S. Holdejna,

čuvenog biologa, koji je rekao, "Dakle, moje je uverenje

who said, "Now, my own suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer

da je univerzum ne samo neobičniji nego što pretpostavljamo,

than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.

nego neobičniji nego što možemo pretpostaviti.

I suspect that there are more things in heaven and earth

Pretpostavljam da postoji više stvari na nebu i zemlji

than are dreamed of, or can be dreamed of, in any philosophy."

nego što zamišljamo, ili što možemo zamisliti, u okviru bilo koje filozofije."

Ričard Fajnman je uporedio preciznost kvantne teorije --

Richard Feynman compared the accuracy of quantum theories --

eksperimentalnih predviđanja -- sa merenjem širine Severne Amerike

experimental predictions --

to specifying the width of North America to within one hair's breadth of accuracy.

sa greškom od širine jedne dlake.

This means that quantum theory has got to be, in some sense, true.

To znači da kvantna teorija mora biti tačna, u neku ruku.

Yet the assumptions that quantum theory needs to make

Pa ipak, pretpostavke koje kvantna teorija mora da usvoji

in order to deliver those predictions are so mysterious

da bi ostvarila ta predviđanja su tako tajanstvena

that even Feynman himself was moved to remark,

da je čak i sam Fajnman bio podstaknut da kaže,

"If you think you understand quantum theory,

"Ako mislite da razumete kvantnu teoriju,

you don't understand quantum theory."

ne razumete kvantnu teoriju."

Toliko je neobična da fizičari pribegavaju jednoj ili drugoj

It's so queer that physicists resort to one or another

paradoxical interpretation of it.

paradoksalnoj interpretaciji iste.

Dejvid Dojč, koji drži predavanje ovde, u "Tkanju stvarnosti",

David Deutsch, who's talking here, in "The Fabric of Reality,"

embraces the many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory,

pribegava interpretaciji kvantne teorije u vidu paralelnih univerzuma,

because the worst that you can say about it

iz razloga što najjača zamerka koja joj može biti upućena je

is that it's preposterously wasteful.

da je nepotrebno rasipnička.

It postulates a vast and rapidly growing number of universes existing in parallel,

Ona postulira ogroman i brzo rastući broj univerzuma

koji postoje u paraleli -- međusobno izolovani osim u slučaju

mutually undetectable,

except through the narrow porthole of quantum mechanical experiments.

uskih prolaza sačinjenih od kvantnomehaničkih eksperimenata.

To je Ričard Fajnmen.

And that's Richard Feynman.

Biolog Luis Volpert

The biologist Lewis Wolpert believes

that the queerness of modern physics

veruje da je neobičnost moderne fizike

is just an extreme example.

samo ekstreman primer. Nauka, nasuprot tehnologije,

Science, as opposed to technology,

does violence to common sense.

čini nasilje nad zdravim razumom.

Every time you drink a glass of water, he points out,

Svaki put kad popijete čašu vode, on iznosi,

the odds are that you will imbibe at least one molecule

dobre su šanse da ćete uneti bar jedan molekul

that passed through the bladder of Oliver Cromwell.

koji je prošao kroz bešiku Olivera Kromvela. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

It's just elementary probability theory.

To je samo elementarna teorija verovatnoće.

(Laughter)

The number of molecules per glassful is hugely greater

Broj molekula koji sačinjava vodu potrebnu da se napuni čaša je daleko veći

than the number of glassfuls, or bladdersful, in the world.

od broja čaša, ili bešika, koje možemo napuniti svom vodom ovoga sveta --

And of course, there's nothing special about Cromwell or bladders --

i, naravno, nema ničeg posebnog u vezi sa Kromvelom

you have just breathed in a nitrogen atom

ili bešikama. Upravo ste udahnuli atom azota

that passed through the right lung of the third iguanodon

koji je prošao kroz desno plućno krilo trećeg iguanodona,

to the left of the tall cycad tree.

posmatrano levo od visokog cikasa.

"Queerer than we can suppose."

"Neobičnije nego što možemo pretpostaviti."

What is it that makes us capable of supposing anything,

Šta je to što nas čini sposobnima da pretpostavimo bilo šta,

and does this tell us anything about what we can suppose?

i da li nam to govori bilo šta o tome šta smo u stanju da pretpostavimo?

Are there things about the universe that will be forever beyond our grasp,

Da li postoje stvari o univerzumu koje će uvek biti

izvan našeg poimanja, ali ne i izvan poimanja neke

but not beyond the grasp of some superior intelligence?

superiorne inteligencije? Da li postoje stvari o univerzumu

Are there things about the universe

that are, in principle, ungraspable by any mind,

koje su principijelno nepojmljive bilo kom umu,

however superior?

ma koliko superiorniji da je?

The history of science has been one long series of violent brainstorms,

Istorija nauke predstavlja dugu seriju

žestokih, iznenadnih ideja, tokom koje su se naredne generacije

as successive generations have come to terms with

morale izboriti i pomiriti sa narastajućom neobičnošću

increasing levels of queerness in the universe.

univerzuma.

We're now so used to the idea that the Earth spins,

Danas smo toliko naviknuti na ideju da se Zemlja rotira --

rather than the Sun moves across the sky,

umesto da se Sunce kreće preko neba -- da nam je teško da shvatimo

it's hard for us to realize

what a shattering mental revolution that must have been.

kakva je to razorna intelektualna revolucija morala biti.

After all, it seems obvious that the Earth is large and motionless,

Najzad, čini se očiglednim da je Zemlja velika i nepokretna,

the Sun, small and mobile.

Sunce malo i pokretno. Ali vredi se setiti

But it's worth recalling Wittgenstein's remark on the subject:

Vitgenštajnove napomene na ovu temu.

"Tell me," he asked a friend, "why do people always say

"Reci mi," pitao je prijatelja, "zašto ljudi uvek kažu da je bilo prirodno

it was natural for man to assume that the Sun went 'round the Earth,

za čoveka da pretpostavi da se Sunce kreće oko Zemlje,

rather than that the Earth was rotating?"

a ne da se Zemlja rotira?"

And his friend replied, "Well, obviously,

Njegov prijatelj je odgovorio, "Pa, očigledno zato što izgleda kao da

because it just looks as though the Sun is going round the Earth."

se Sunce kreće oko Zemlje."

Wittgenstein replied, "Well, what would it have looked like

Vitgenštajn je odgovorio, "Pa, kako bi izgledalo

if it had looked as though the Earth was rotating?"

kada bi izgledalo kao da se Zemlja rotira?" (Smeh)

(Laughter)

Science has taught us, against all intuition,

Nauka nas je naučila, nasuprot intuicije,

that apparently solid things, like crystals and rocks,

da su naizgled čvrste stvari, kao što su kristali i kamenje,

are really almost entirely composed of empty space.

zapravo skoro potpuno sačinjeni od praznog prostora.

And the familiar illustration is the nucleus of an atom

Poznati primer je da je jezgro atoma muva

is a fly in the middle of a sports stadium,

u sredini sportskog stadiona i da je susedni atom

and the next atom is in the next sports stadium.

zapravo susedni sportski stadion.

So it would seem the hardest, solidest, densest rock

Dakle, čini se da je najčvršći, najizdržljiviji, najgušći kamen

is really almost entirely empty space,

zapravo skoro ceo prazan prostor, prošaran sitnim česticama

broken only by tiny particles so widely spaced they shouldn't count.

toliko razmaknutim da ne bi trebalo da se računaju.

Why, then, do rocks look and feel solid and hard and impenetrable?

Zašto je onda kamenje izgledom i na dodir čvrsto i tvrdo i neprobojno?

As an evolutionary biologist, I'd say this: our brains have evolved

Kao evolutivni biolog rekao bih ovo: naši mozgovi su evoluirali

to help us survive within the orders of magnitude, of size and speed

da bi nam pomogli u preživljavanju u okviru reda veličina razmera i brzina

which our bodies operate at.

u kojima naša tela funkcionišu. Nikada nismo evoluirali da se krećemo

We never evolved to navigate in the world of atoms.

kroz svet atoma.

If we had, our brains probably would perceive rocks

Da jesmo, naši mozgovi bi verovatno opažali kamenje

as full of empty space.

kao pune praznog prostora. Kamenje je na dodir tvrdo i neprobojno

Rocks feel hard and impenetrable

to our hands, precisely because objects like rocks and hands

našim rukama upravo zato što objekti kao što su kamenje i ruke

cannot penetrate each other.

ne mogu da prolaze jedan kroz drugi. Stoga je našim mozgovima korisno

It's therefore useful

for our brains to construct notions like "solidity" and "impenetrability,"

da konstruišu ideje kao što su "čvrstoća" i "neprobojnost",

because such notions help us to navigate our bodies

zato što nam takve ideje pomažu da pokrećemo naša tela kroz

through the middle-sized world in which we have to navigate.

svet srednjih razmera kroz koji se krećemo.

Moving to the other end of the scale,

Posmatrajući drugi kraj opsega, naši preci se nikad nisu

our ancestors never had to navigate through the cosmos

kretali kroz svemir brzinama bliskim brzini

at speeds close to the speed of light.

svetlosti. Da jesu, naši mozgovi bi bili mnogo bolji

If they had, our brains would be much better at understanding Einstein.

u razumevanju Ajnštajna. Želim da imenom "Srednji Svet" nazovem

I want to give the name "Middle World" to the medium-scaled environment

okolinu srednjih razmera u kojoj smo evoluirali

in which we've evolved the ability to take act --

sposobnost da delamo -- nepovezano sa Srednjom Zemljom.

nothing to do with "Middle Earth" --

Srednji Svet. (Smeh)

Middle World.

(Laughter)

We are evolved denizens of Middle World,

Mi smo evoluirani stanovnici Srednjeg Sveta, i to ograničava

and that limits what we are capable of imagining.

šta smo sposobni zamisliti. Intuitivno vam je lako

We find it intuitively easy to grasp ideas like,

poimanje ideja kao što je, kada se zec kreće svojevrsnom

when a rabbit moves at the sort of medium velocity

srednjom brzinom kojom se zečevi i ostali objekti Srednjeg Sveta kreću,

at which rabbits and other Middle World objects move,

and hits another Middle World object like a rock, it knocks itself out.

i udari u drugi objekat Srednjeg Sveta, kao što je kamen, onesvestiće se.

May I introduce Major General Albert Stubblebine III,

Hteo bih predstaviti majora generala Alberta Stablbajna III,

commander of military intelligence in 1983.

komandira vojne obaveštajne službe 1983.

"...[He] stared at his wall in Arlington, Virginia, and decided to do it.

Zurio je u svoj zid u Arlingtonu u Virdžiniji i odlučio da uradi to.

As frightening as the prospect was, he was going into the next office.

Ma koliko zastrašujuće loši izgledi bili, on će proći u susednu kancelariju.

He stood up and moved out from behind his desk.

Ustao je i pomerio se ispred svog stola.

'What is the atom mostly made of?' he thought, 'Space.'

Od čega su atomi uglavnom sačinjeni? pomislio je. Međuprostora.

He started walking. 'What am I mostly made of? Atoms.'

Zakoračio je. Od čega sam ja sačinjen? Od atoma.

He quickened his pace, almost to a jog now.

Ubrzao je korak, skoro do lakog trka.

'What is the wall mostly made of?'

Od čega je zid sačinjen? Od atoma.

(Laughter)

'Atoms!'

All I have to do is merge the spaces.

Sve što treba da uradim je da spojim međuprostor.

Zatim je general Stablbajn jako lupio nosom zid

Then, General Stubblebine banged his nose hard on the wall of his office.

svoje kancelarije. Stablbajn, koji je bio komandir 16 000 vojnika,

Stubblebine, who commanded 16,000 soldiers,

was confounded by his continual failure to walk through the wall.

je bio zbunjen svojim konstantnim neuspehom da prođe kroz zid.

He has no doubt that this ability will one day be a common tool

On je uveren da će ta sposobnost jednog dana biti uobičajen alat

in the military arsenal.

vojnog arsenala. Ko bi se usudio izazivati vojsku koja bi bila

Who would screw around with an army that could do that?"

u stanju uraditi to? To je iz članka u Plejboju,

That's from an article in Playboy,

which I was reading the other day.

koji sam čitao pre neki dan. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

I have every reason to think it's true;

Nemam razloga da sumnjam u njegovu istinitost; Plejboj sam čitao

I was reading Playboy because I, myself, had an article in it.

zato što je objavio i moj članak. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

Unaided human intuition, schooled in Middle World,

Nepotpomognutoj ljudskoj intuiciji obrazovanoj u Srednjem Svetu

finds it hard to believe Galileo when he tells us

je teško da poveruje Galileu kada nam kaže

a heavy object and a light object, air friction aside,

da će težak i lak objekat, ako zanemarimo otpor vazduha,

would hit the ground at the same instant.

pasti na zemlju u istom trenutku.

And that's because in Middle World, air friction is always there.

I to je zato što je u Srednjem Svetu otpor vazduha uvek prisutan.

If we'd evolved in a vacuum,

Da smo evoluirali u vakuumu, očekivali bismo da će oba

we would expect them to hit the ground simultaneously.

pasti na zemlju istovremeno. Da smo bakterije,

If we were bacteria,

constantly buffeted by thermal movements of molecules,

konstantno udarane toplotnim kretanjima molekula,

it would be different.

bilo bi drugačije,

But we Middle-Worlders are too big to notice Brownian motion.

ali mi, stanovnici Srednjeg Sveta, smo previše veliki da primetimo Braunovo kretanje.

In the same way, our lives are dominated by gravity,

Na isti način gravitacija dominira našim životima

but are almost oblivious to the force of surface tension.

dok smo skoro potpuno nesvesni sile površinskog napona.

A small insect would reverse these priorities.

Mali insekt bi zamenio mesta ovim prioritetima.

Steve Grand -- he's the one on the left,

Stiv Grend -- na levoj strani slike,

Douglas Adams is on the right.

Daglas Adams je na desnoj -- Stiv Grend je u svojoj knjizi,

Steve Grand, in his book, "Creation: Life and How to Make It,"

"Nastajanje: život i kako ga stvoriti", izrazito oštar

is positively scathing about our preoccupation with matter itself.

prema našoj zaokupljenosti samom materijom.

We have this tendency to think that only solid, material things

Težimo mišljenju da su samo opipljive, materijalne stvari

are really things at all.

zapravo stvari uopšte. Talasi elektromagnetnih fluktuacija

Waves of electromagnetic fluctuation in a vacuum seem unreal.

u vakuumu deluju nestvarno.

Victorians thought the waves had to be waves in some material medium:

Viktorijanci su mislili da talasi moraju biti talasi u nekom materijalnom medijumu --

the ether.

etru. Ali nama je pomisao na stvarnu materiju utešna samo zato

But we find real matter comforting

only because we've evolved to survive in Middle World,

što smo evoluirali da preživimo u Srednjem Svetu,

where matter is a useful fiction.

gde je pojam materije korisna zamisao.

A whirlpool, for Steve Grand, is a thing with just as much reality

Vir, za Stiva Grenda, je stvar bazirana u realnosti

as a rock.

koliko i kamen.

In a desert plain in Tanzania,

U pustinjskoj ravnici Tanzanije, u senci vulkana

in the shadow of the volcano Ol Doinyo Lengai,

Ol Donjo Lengai, nalazi se dina od vulkanskog pepela.

there's a dune made of volcanic ash.

The beautiful thing is that it moves bodily.

Divna stvar je to što se pokreće celom masom.

It's what's technically known as a "barchan,"

Stručan naziv za to je barhan, i cela dina

and the entire dune walks across the desert in a westerly direction

se kreće pustinjom ka zapadu

at a speed of about 17 meters per year.

brzinom od oko 17 metara godišnje.

It retains its crescent shape and moves in the direction of the horns.

Stalno održavajući oblik polumeseca, kreće se u pravcu rogova.

What happens is that the wind blows the sand up the shallow slope

Ono što se dešava je da vetar nanosi pesak

uz blažu padinu na drugoj strani, a zatim,

on the other side,

and then, as each sand grain hits the top of the ridge, it cascades down

kako zrno po zrno stiže do vrha strmine,

ono stepenasto pada dole, u unutrašnjost "polumeseca",

on the inside of the crescent,

and so the whole horn-shaped dune moves.

i tako se cela dina u obliku rogova kreće.

Steve Grand points out that you and I are, ourselves,

Stiv Gren ukazuje na to da smo Vi i ja zapravo

more like a wave than a permanent thing.

više nalik talasu nego nepromenljivoj stvari.

He invites us, the reader,

On Vas poziva, čitaoca, da se "setite nekog događaja

to think of an experience from your childhood,

iz Vašeg detinjstva -- nečeg čega se sećate jasno,

something you remember clearly,

something you can see, feel, maybe even smell,

nečeg što možete videti, osetiti, možda čak i pomirisati,

as if you were really there.

kao da ste zaista tamo.

After all, you really were there at the time, weren't you?

Naposletku, Vi ste zaista i bili tamo u to vreme, zar ne?

How else would you remember it?

Kako biste se inače sećali toga?

But here is the bombshell: You weren't there.

A sada sledi najveće iznenađenje: Vi niste bili tamo.

Not a single atom that is in your body today

Nijedan atom koji je u Vašem telu danas nije bio tamo

was there when that event took place.

kada se taj događaj dogodio. Materija protiče od mesta do mesta

Matter flows from place to place

and momentarily comes together to be you.

i za trenutak se sjedinjuje čineći Vas.

Whatever you are, therefore,

Šta god da ste, dakle, niste materija

you are not the stuff of which you are made.

od koje ste sačinjeni.

If that doesn't make the hair stand up on the back of your neck,

Ako se ne naježite od toga, čitajte iznova

read it again until it does, because it is important.

dok se to ne desi, veoma je važno."

So "really" isn't a word that we should use with simple confidence.

Stoga "zbilja" nije reč koju bismo trebali izgovarati sa običnim samopouzdanjem.

If a neutrino had a brain,

Da neutrino ima mozak,

which it evolved in neutrino-sized ancestors,

koji je evoluirao u precima veličine neutrina,

it would say that rocks really do consist of empty space.

on bi rekao da je kamenje zbilja sačinjeno od praznog prostora.

We have brains that evolved in medium-sized ancestors

Mi imamo mozgove koji su evoluirali u precima srednje veličine

which couldn't walk through rocks.

koji se nisu mogli kretati kroz kamenje.

"Really," for an animal, is whatever its brain needs it to be

"Zbilja" za životinju je ono što je njenom mozgu potrebno

in order to assist its survival.

da bi pomoglo preživljavanju,

And because different species live in different worlds,

i zato što različite vrste žive u različitim svetovima,

there will be a discomforting variety of "reallys."

postojaće veliko mnoštvo različitih zbilja.

What we see of the real world is not the unvarnished world,

Ono realnog sveta što mi vidimo nije svet kakav zaista jeste

but a model of the world, regulated and adjusted by sense data,

već model sveta, sređen i podešen od strane naših čula,

but constructed so it's useful for dealing with the real world.

ali načinjen takvim da bi bio koristan za delanje u realnom svetu.

The nature of the model depends on the kind of animal we are.

Priroda modela zavisi od vrste životinje koju predstavljamo.

A flying animal needs a different kind of model

Životinji koja leti je potreban drugačiji model

from a walking, climbing or swimming animal.

od one koja hoda, penje se ili pliva.

A monkey's brain must have software capable of simulating

Mozak majmuna mora imati program sposoban za predstavljanje

a three-dimensional world of branches and trunks.

trodimezionalnog sveta stabala i grana.

A mole's software for constructing models of its world will be customized

Krtičin program za pravljenje modela njenog sveta

će biti podesan za upotrebu u podzemlju.

for underground use.

A water strider's brain doesn't need 3D software at all,

Mozgu gazivode uopšte nije potreban 3D program,

since it lives on the surface of the pond,

budući da živi na površini bare,

in an Edwin Abbott flatland.

u pljosnatoj zemlji Edvina Abota.

I've speculated that bats may see color with their ears.

Razmišljao sam o tome da li slepi miševi mogu da detektuju boje svojim ušima.

The world model that a bat needs in order to navigate

Model sveta potreban slepom mišu za kretanje

through three dimensions catching insects

u tri dimenzije i hvatanje insekata

must be pretty similar to the world model that any flying bird --

mora biti prilično sličan modelu sveta potrebnog bilo kojoj ptici koja leti,

a day-flying bird like a swallow -- needs to perform the same kind of tasks.

ptici koja leti danju kao što je lasta, za obavljanje

iste vrste zadataka.

The fact that the bat uses echoes in pitch darkness

Činjenica da se slepi miš koristi ehom u mrklom mraku

to input the current variables to its model,

da bi uneo trenutne vrednosti promenljivih u svoj model,

while the swallow uses light, is incidental.

dok lasta koristi svetlost, je od sporedne važnosti.

Bats, I've even suggested, use perceived hues, such as red and blue,

Čak sam nagovestio da slepi miševi koriste percipirane nijanse, na primer crvenu i plavu,

as labels, internal labels, for some useful aspect of echoes --

kao oznake, sopstvene oznake za neke korisne aspekte ehoa --

perhaps the acoustic texture of surfaces, furry or smooth and so on --

možda akustičku teksturu površina, krznenu ili glatku i tome slično,

in the same way as swallows or indeed, we, use those perceived hues --

na isti način na koji laste, i mi, koristimo te

percipirane nijanse -- crvenu i plavu itd. --

redness and blueness, etc. --

to label long and short wavelengths of light.

da označimo duge i kratke talasne dužine svetlosti.

There's nothing inherent about red that makes it long wavelength.

Ne postoji ništa inherentno što čini crvenu bojom duge talasne dužine.

The point is that the nature of the model is governed by how it is to be used,

Poenta je da priroda modela zavisi od toga

kako će biti korišten, a ne modalnošću uključenih čula.

rather than by the sensory modality involved.

J.B.S. Haldane himself had something to say about animals

Dž.B.S. Holdejn je i sam rekao par stvari o životinjama

whose world is dominated by smell.

čijim svetom dominira miris.

Dogs can distinguish two very similar fatty acids, extremely diluted:

Psi su u stanju da razlikuju dve veoma slične masne kiseline, izuzetno razređene:

caprylic acid and caproic acid.

kaprilnu kiselinu i heksanoičnu kiselinu.

The only difference, you see,

Vidite, jedina razlika je da jedna ima dodatan par

is that one has an extra pair of carbon atoms in the chain.

ugljenikovih atoma u svom lancu.

Haldane guesses that a dog would probably be able to place the acids

Holdejn je smatrao da bi pas verovatno bio u stanju da poređa kiseline

in the order of their molecular weights by their smells,

po njihovoj molekularnoj masi mirišući ih,

just as a man could place a number of piano wires

kao što je čovek u stanju da složi više klavirskih žica

in the order of their lengths by means of their notes.

po njihovim dužinama slušajući tonove koje proizvode.

Now, there's another fatty acid, capric acid,

Postoji još jedna masna kiselina, dekanoična kiselina,

which is just like the other two,

koje je nalik na ostale dve,

except that it has two more carbon atoms.

sem što ima još dva ugljenikova atoma.

A dog that had never met capric acid would, perhaps,

Možda pas koji se nikad nije susreo sa dekanoičnom kiselinom

have no more trouble imagining its smell

ne bi imao veći problem da zamisli njen miris nego što mi imamo da

than we would have trouble imagining a trumpet, say,

zamislimo trubu, recimo, koja svira ton za jedan viši

playing one note higher than we've heard a trumpet play before.

nego što smo ikada čuli trubu kako svira.

Perhaps dogs and rhinos and other smell-oriented animals smell in color.

Možda psi i nosorozi i ostale životinje orjentisane na miris

mirišu "u boji". Taj argument bi bio

And the argument would be exactly the same as for the bats.

potpuno isti kao onaj za slepe miševe.

Middle World -- the range of sizes and speeds

Srednji Svet -- područje veličina i brzina

which we have evolved to feel intuitively comfortable with --

u kojem se intuitivno osećamo udobno zahvaljujući evoluiranju unutar njega --

is a bit like the narrow range of the electromagnetic spectrum

je pomalo nalik uskom opsegu elektromagnetnog spektra

that we see as light of various colors.

koji vidimo kao svetlo različitih boja.

We're blind to all frequencies outside that,

Slepi smo za sve frekvencije van tog opsega,

unless we use instruments to help us.

osim ako koristimo instrumente kao pomoć.

Middle World is the narrow range of reality

Srednji Svet je uski opseg realnosti

which we judge to be normal, as opposed to the queerness

koji mi smatramo za normalan, nasuprot čudnovatosti

of the very small, the very large and the very fast.

veoma malog, veoma velikog i veoma brzog.

We could make a similar scale of improbabilities;

Mogli bismo napraviti sličnu skalu neverovatnih stvari;

nothing is totally impossible.

ništa nije potpuno nemoguće.

Miracles are just events that are extremely improbable.

Čuda su događaji koji su izuzetno neverovatni.

A marble statue could wave its hand at us;

Mermerna statua bi mogla da nam mahne svojom rukom; atomi koji čine

the atoms that make up its crystalline structure

njenu kristalnu rešetku ionako svi osciluju napred-nazad.

are all vibrating back and forth anyway.

Because there are so many of them,

Zato što ih ima veoma mnogo,

and because there's no agreement among them

i zato što nisu usaglašeni međusobno

in their preferred direction of movement,

po pitanju prioritetnog pravca kretanja, mermer,

the marble, as we see it in Middle World, stays rock steady.

kako ga vidimo u Srednjem Svetu, ostaje nepomičan.

But the atoms in the hand could all just happen to move

Ali atomi u ruci bi slučajno mogli da se pokrenu

the same way at the same time, and again and again.

u istom pravcu u istom trenutku, i opet, i opet.

In this case, the hand would move,

U tom slučaju, ruka bi se pomerala i mi bismo je videli kako nam maše

and we'd see it waving at us in Middle World.

u Srednjem Svetu. Šanse da se to dogodi, naravno, su toliko male

The odds against it, of course, are so great

that if you set out writing zeros at the time of the origin of the universe,

da ako biste počeli da pišete nule u trenutku

nastanka univerzuma, ne biste napisali

you still would not have written enough zeros to this day.

dovoljno nula ni do današnjeg dana.

Evolution in Middle World has not equipped us

to handle very improbable events; we don't live long enough.

Evolucija u Srednjem Svetu nas nije spremila za baratanje

malo verovatnim događajima; ne živimo dovoljno dugo.

In the vastness of astronomical space and geological time,

U ogromnom prostranstvu astronomskog prostora i geološkog vremena,

that which seems impossible in Middle World

ono što se čini neverovatnim u Srednjem Svetu

might turn out to be inevitable.

se može ispostaviti da je neizbežno.

One way to think about that is by counting planets.

Jedan od načina da mislite o ovome je prebrojavanje planeta.

We don't know how many planets there are in the universe,

Mi ne znamo koliko planeta zaista postoji u univerzumu,

but a good estimate is about 10 to the 20, or 100 billion billion.

ali 10 na dvadeseti ili 100 milijardi milijardi je dobra procena.

And that gives us a nice way to express our estimate of life's improbability.

To nam daje dobar način da izrazimo našu procenu

neverovatnosti života.

We could make some sort of landmark points along a spectrum of improbability,

Mogli bismo istaći neke od bitnih tačaka

duž spektra neverovatnosti, koji može biti nalik

which might look like the electromagnetic spectrum we just looked at.

elektromagnetskom spektru koji smo malopre spomenuli.

If life has arisen only once on any --

Da je život nastao samo jednom na bilo kojoj --

life could originate once per planet, could be extremely common

kada -- kada bi život mogao -- mislim, život bi mogao nastati jednom po planeti,

mogao bi biti izuzetno uobičajen, ili bi mogao nastati jednom po zvezdi,

or it could originate once per star

or once per galaxy or maybe only once in the entire universe,

ili jednom po galaksiji ili možda samo jednom u celom univerzumu,

in which case it would have to be here.

u kom slučaju bi to moralo biti ovde. I tamo negde

And somewhere up there would be the chance

that a frog would turn into a prince,

bi postojala šansa da se žabac pretvori u princa

and similar magical things like that.

i slične takve magične stvari.

If life has arisen on only one planet in the entire universe,

Ako je život nastao samo na jednoj planeti u celom univerzumu,

that planet has to be our planet, because here we are talking about it.

ta planeta mora biti naša planeta, budući da upravo pričamo o tome.

And that means that if we want to avail ourselves of it,

To znači da ako želimo da se poslužimo time,

we're allowed to postulate chemical events in the origin of life

možemo uzeti kao pretpostavku hemijske procese u nastanku života

which have a probability as low as one in 100 billion billion.

koji imaju malu verovatnoću, oko jedan u 100 milijardi milijardi.

I don't think we shall have to avail ourselves of that,

Ne mislim da ćemo morati da se poslužimo time,

because I suspect that life is quite common in the universe.

zato što smatram da je život veoma uobičajena pojava u univerzumu.

And when I say quite common, it could still be so rare

A kada kažem veoma uobičajena, to i dalje može da bude dovoljno retko

that no one island of life ever encounters another,

da nijedno ostrvo života nikad ne otkrije drugo,

which is a sad thought.

što je tužna misao.

How shall we interpret "queerer than we can suppose?"

Kako interpretirati "neobičnije nego što možemo pretpostaviti"?

Queerer than can in principle be supposed,

Neobičnije nego što u principu može biti pretpostavljeno,

or just queerer than we can suppose, given the limitations

ili samo neobičnije nego što mi možemo da pretpostavimo, s obzirom na ograničenja

of our brain's evolutionary apprenticeship in Middle World?

evolutivnog učenja našeg mozga u Srednjem Svetu?

Could we, by training and practice,

Možemo li, treningom i vežbom, osloboditi sami sebe

emancipate ourselves from Middle World

Srednjeg Sveta i postići neku vrstu intuitivnog,

and achieve some sort of intuitive as well as mathematical understanding

kao i matematičkog, razumevanja veoma malog

of the very small and the very large?

i veoma velikog? Iskreno, ne znam odgovor.

I genuinely don't know the answer.

I wonder whether we might help ourselves to understand, say, quantum theory,

Pitam se da li bismo mogli pomoći sami sebi da razumemo, recimo,

if we brought up children to play computer games

kvantnu teoriju, ako bi nam deca odrastala uz kompjuterske igre,

beginning in early childhood,

počevši od ranog detinjstva, koje bi imale neku vrstu

which had a make-believe world of balls going through two slits on a screen,

izmišljenog sveta gde kuglice prolaze kroz dva proreza na zaklonu,

a world in which the strange goings-on of quantum mechanics were enlarged

svet u kojem su čudna dešavanja kvantne mehanike

uveličana kompjuterskim izmišljenim svetom,

by the computer's make-believe,

so that they became familiar on the Middle-World scale of the stream.

tako da postanu bliska na skali dešavanja Srednjeg Sveta.

And similarly, a relativistic computer game,

I, slično, relativistička kompjuterska igra u kojoj

in which objects on the screen manifest the Lorentz contraction, and so on,

objekti na ekranu prikazuju Lorencovo skraćenje dužine, i tako dalje,

to try to get ourselves -- to get children into the way of thinking about it.

da pokušamo da počnemo da razmišljamo na taj način --

da deca počnu da razmišljaju na taj način.

I want to end by applying the idea of Middle World

Želeo bih da završim primenom ideje o Srednjem Svetu

to our perceptions of each other.

na našu percepciju jedni drugih.

Most scientists today subscribe to a mechanistic view of the mind:

Većina naučnika danas smatra da je ispravna mehanička predstava uma:

we're the way we are because our brains are wired up as they are,

takvi smo kakvi smo zato što je naš mozak ispovezivan tako kako jeste;

our hormones are the way they are.

naši hormoni su takvi kakvi jesu.

We'd be different, our characters would be different,

Bili bismo drugačiji, naše ličnosti bi bile drugačije,

if our neuro-anatomy and our physiological chemistry were different.

da su naša nervna anatomija i naša fiziološka hemija drugačije.

But we scientists are inconsistent.

Ali mi naučnici nismo dosledni. Da smo dosledni,

If we were consistent,

our response to a misbehaving person, like a child-murderer,

naša reakcija na osobu koja se loše ponaša, na primer ubicu dece,

should be something like:

bi trebala da bude nešto kao, ovaj primerak ima faličnu komponentu;

this unit has a faulty component; it needs repairing.

potrebno ga je popraviti. To nije ono što kažemo.

That's not what we say.

What we say -- and I include the most austerely mechanistic among us,

Ono što kažemo -- a tu uključujem i najoštrije zagovornike mehaničke predstave među nama,

which is probably me --

što sam verovatno i sam --

what we say is, "Vile monster, prison is too good for you."

ono što kažemo je, "Zlo čudovište, zatvor je previše dobar za tebe."

Or worse, we seek revenge, in all probability thereby triggering

Još gore, tražimo osvetu, na taj način verovatno podstičući

the next phase in an escalating cycle of counter-revenge,

sledeću fazu u narastajućem krugu protiv-osveta,

which we see, of course, all over the world today.

što primećujemo, naravno, po celom svetu današnjice.

In short, when we're thinking like academics,

Ukratko, kada razmišljamo kao akademici,

we regard people as elaborate and complicated machines,

posmatramo ljude kao razrađene i komplikovane mašine,

like computers or cars.

kao kompjutere ili automobile, ali kada se vratimo posmatranju stvari iz ljudske perspektive

But when we revert to being human,

we behave more like Basil Fawlty, who, we remember,

ponašamo se više kao Bazil Folti, koji je, sećamo se,

thrashed his car to teach it a lesson,

razlupao svoj auto da bi ga naučio pameti kada ovaj nije hteo da se upali

when it wouldn't start on "Gourmet Night."

na sladokusačko veče. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

The reason we personify things like cars and computers

Razlog zašto personifikujemo stvari kao što su automobili i kompjuteri

is that just as monkeys live in an arboreal world

je da kao što majmuni žive u svetu od drveta

and moles live in an underground world

i krtice žive u podzemnom svetu

and water striders live in a surface tension-dominated flatland,

i gazivode žive u pljosnatom svetu dominiranom površinskim naponom,

we live in a social world.

mi živimo u društvenom svetu. Plivamo kroz more ljudi --

We swim through a sea of people --

a social version of Middle World.

društvenoj verziji Srednjeg Sveta.

We are evolved to second-guess the behavior of others

Evoluirali smo tako da pokušavamo da predvidimo ponašanje drugih ljudi

by becoming brilliant, intuitive psychologists.

tako što smo postali brilijantni, intuitivni psiholozi.

Treating people as machines

Tretiranje ljudi kao mašina

may be scientifically and philosophically accurate,

možda jeste naučno i filozofski tačno,

but it's a cumbersome waste of time

ali opterećuje i troši previše vremena

if you want to guess what this person is going to do next.

ako želite da predvidite šta će ta osoba uraditi sledeće.

The economically useful way to model a person

Ekonomično korisni način da modelujemo osobu

is to treat him as a purposeful, goal-seeking agent

je da je tretiramo kao odlučno biće sa zacrtanim ciljevima,

with pleasures and pains, desires and intentions,

sa zadovoljstvima i bolovima, željama i namerama,

guilt, blame-worthiness.

osećajem krivice, dostojno prekora.

Personification and the imputing of intentional purpose

Personifikacija i umetanje svesne namere

is such a brilliantly successful way to model humans,

je toliko brilijantno uspešan način za modelovanje ljudi

it's hardly surprising the same modeling software

da nije nikakvo čudo što isti program modelovanja

often seizes control when we're trying to think about entities

često preuzima kontrolu kada pokušavamo da razmišljamo o entitetima

for which it's not appropriate, like Basil Fawlty with his car

za koje taj postupak nije adekvatan, kao Bazil Folti sa svojim autom

or like millions of deluded people, with the universe as a whole.

ili kao milioni obmanutih ljudi sa univerzumom kao celinom. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

If the universe is queerer than we can suppose,

Ako je univerzum neobičniji nego što možemo pretpostaviti,

is it just because we've been naturally selected

da li je to samo zato što smo odabrani prirodnom selekcijom da pretpostavljamo

to suppose only what we needed to suppose

samo ono što nam je trebalo da bismo preživeli

in order to survive in the Pleistocene of Africa?

pleistocensku epohu u Africi?

Or are our brains so versatile and expandable that we can train ourselves

Ili su naši mozgovi toliko sposobni proširenju i prilagođavanju da možemo

da istreniramo sami sebe da promenimo tok sopstvene evolucije?

to break out of the box of our evolution?

Or finally, are there some things in the universe so queer

Ili, naposletku, postoje li neke stvari u univerzumu toliko neobične

that no philosophy of beings, however godlike, could dream them?

da nikakva filozofija bića, koliko god božanskih, ne bi bila u stanju da ih zamisli?

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

Puno vam hvala.