Why the universe seems so strange | Richard Dawkins

1,839,719 views ・ 2007-01-16

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譯者: 黃友豪 . 審譯者: Geoff Chen
00:25
My title: "Queerer than we can suppose: the strangeness of science."
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我的講題:「比我們所能想像的更離奇: 科學的不可思議」
00:31
"Queerer than we can suppose" comes from J.B.S. Haldane, the famous biologist,
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「比我們所能想像的更離奇」 引自著名生物學家霍爾登 (J. B. S. Haldane)
他說道: 「我的個人猜想是,
00:35
who said, "Now, my own suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer
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宇宙不僅比我們想的離奇,
00:40
than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.
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而是比我們"能想"的更離奇。
00:44
I suspect that there are more things in heaven and earth
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我估計天地間的事物
00:47
than are dreamed of, or can be dreamed of, in any philosophy."
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比任何學說曾設想/能設想的還要多。」
費曼 形容量子理論之精確性 -
00:54
Richard Feynman compared the accuracy of quantum theories --
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實驗測準 - 相當於釐定北美洲之跨度時
00:59
experimental predictions --
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01:00
to specifying the width of North America to within one hair's breadth of accuracy.
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誤差不逾一絲毫髮.
01:07
This means that quantum theory has got to be, in some sense, true.
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意思是量子理論應該於某種意義上屬實
01:11
Yet the assumptions that quantum theory needs to make
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然而, 量子理論在得出該推論前
01:14
in order to deliver those predictions are so mysterious
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所需之假設卻又是如許深奧
01:18
that even Feynman himself was moved to remark,
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以致於費曼亦不禁指出:
01:21
"If you think you understand quantum theory,
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「若您以為自己懂量子理論,
01:24
you don't understand quantum theory."
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您其實並不懂量子理論。」
真奇怪,物理學家作闡述的時候,
01:28
It's so queer that physicists resort to one or another
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01:32
paradoxical interpretation of it.
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竟都訴諸於這樣那樣的之悖論。
於此演說「現實結構」之 David Deutsch,
01:35
David Deutsch, who's talking here, in "The Fabric of Reality,"
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01:39
embraces the many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory,
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擁護籍以闡釋量子理論的「多宇宙論」,
01:45
because the worst that you can say about it
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因為, 對此您充其量
01:47
is that it's preposterously wasteful.
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只能數落其為浪費無度
01:49
It postulates a vast and rapidly growing number of universes existing in parallel,
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它假設有極多數目激增之宇宙
它們同時並存 - 並且除了通過一個量子機動實驗之窄小孔道外
01:55
mutually undetectable,
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01:57
except through the narrow porthole of quantum mechanical experiments.
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互不察覺。
那是 Richard Feynman 之見解.
02:05
And that's Richard Feynman.
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生物學家 Lewis Wolpert
02:08
The biologist Lewis Wolpert believes
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02:10
that the queerness of modern physics
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相信現代物理之奇怪
02:12
is just an extreme example.
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只是一個極端例子。 科學, 有異於(純)技術,
02:14
Science, as opposed to technology,
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02:16
does violence to common sense.
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確實有違常理。
02:19
Every time you drink a glass of water, he points out,
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他指出, 每當您喝一杯水,
02:22
the odds are that you will imbibe at least one molecule
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您同時亦可能飲下
02:26
that passed through the bladder of Oliver Cromwell.
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一個曾流過 Oliver Cromwell 膀胱之水分子。
02:29
(Laughter)
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02:31
It's just elementary probability theory.
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這純粹是基本可能性.
02:33
(Laughter)
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02:34
The number of molecules per glassful is hugely greater
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每杯水的水分子量, 數目遠遠大於
02:37
than the number of glassfuls, or bladdersful, in the world.
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世上杯量與膀胱量之數
02:41
And of course, there's nothing special about Cromwell or bladders --
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再說,Crornwell 和 (他的) 膀胱當然都沒啥特別。
02:44
you have just breathed in a nitrogen atom
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您剛剛吸入的一個氮原子
02:47
that passed through the right lung of the third iguanodon
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曾從第三頭禽龍的右肺
02:51
to the left of the tall cycad tree.
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轉到蘇鐵高樹上那頭的左肺去。
02:56
"Queerer than we can suppose."
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「比我們所能想像的更離奇」
02:59
What is it that makes us capable of supposing anything,
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是什麼讓我們能作「猜想」呢?
03:03
and does this tell us anything about what we can suppose?
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這說明了我們 [能猜想出甚麼] 來嗎?
03:07
Are there things about the universe that will be forever beyond our grasp,
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宇宙中可有什麼事物
是永遠在我們掌握之外, 卻不在某些更高智能
03:13
but not beyond the grasp of some superior intelligence?
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的掌握之外? 宇宙中可有什麼事物
03:16
Are there things about the universe
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03:18
that are, in principle, ungraspable by any mind,
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是, 原則上, 無論多高明的智慧
03:22
however superior?
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亦無從掌握的呢?
03:25
The history of science has been one long series of violent brainstorms,
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科學歷史是一系列悠長的
劇烈腦震盪 (集思廣益), 後繼的新生代
03:30
as successive generations have come to terms with
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已逐漸接受宇宙中
03:33
increasing levels of queerness in the universe.
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確有愈來愈多的離奇不解。
03:36
We're now so used to the idea that the Earth spins,
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現在我們都已太清楚是地球繞著太陽在轉
03:39
rather than the Sun moves across the sky,
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並非太陽於天空中劃過 - 對此,我們實在難於理解
03:42
it's hard for us to realize
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03:43
what a shattering mental revolution that must have been.
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(當時) 會是一種多震撼的思想革命啊.
03:47
After all, it seems obvious that the Earth is large and motionless,
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畢竟, 表面上明明是地球大喇喇地待著
03:50
the Sun, small and mobile.
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而小小的太陽在移動。 值得玩味的是
03:52
But it's worth recalling Wittgenstein's remark on the subject:
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Wittgenstein 論及此題目時所說過的話:
03:57
"Tell me," he asked a friend, "why do people always say
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「告訴我, 」他問一個朋友, 「為何人們總說,
04:01
it was natural for man to assume that the Sun went 'round the Earth,
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日繞地轉是人的自然構想
04:05
rather than that the Earth was rotating?"
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而非地繞日轉呢?
04:08
And his friend replied, "Well, obviously,
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他的朋友答說:「這個嗎, 看來明明就是
04:10
because it just looks as though the Sun is going round the Earth."
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太陽繞著地球在轉喔。」
04:15
Wittgenstein replied, "Well, what would it have looked like
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Wittgenstein 答道: 「呃,若『看來像是地球在轉』
04:18
if it had looked as though the Earth was rotating?"
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會是如何呢? (眾笑)♫
04:22
(Laughter)
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04:27
Science has taught us, against all intuition,
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科學讓我們曉得, 雖則與直覺相悖,
04:30
that apparently solid things, like crystals and rocks,
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但那些表面上堅實的的物體, 比如水晶和石頭
04:33
are really almost entirely composed of empty space.
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確是幾乎全由空間所構成。
04:37
And the familiar illustration is the nucleus of an atom
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最熟悉的一種解說是: 一個原子的核
04:42
is a fly in the middle of a sports stadium,
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就好比大球場中間的一隻小蒼蠅
04:45
and the next atom is in the next sports stadium.
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而次一枚原子, 已遠在另一個大球場.
04:48
So it would seem the hardest, solidest, densest rock
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故此, 看來堅實緊密之石塊
04:52
is really almost entirely empty space,
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原來幾乎完全是由細小微粒所分隔之空間,
04:55
broken only by tiny particles so widely spaced they shouldn't count.
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其間距是如此疏遠, 以至都可忽略不計.
05:00
Why, then, do rocks look and feel solid and hard and impenetrable?
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這樣說來, 為何石塊看著摸著又是那麼堅硬不透呢?
05:06
As an evolutionary biologist, I'd say this: our brains have evolved
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作為一個演化生物學家, 我會這麼說: 我們的腦袋是按如何
05:10
to help us survive within the orders of magnitude, of size and speed
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有助於我們於某個大小及速度的範圍內
05:17
which our bodies operate at.
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活動而演化。我們並未變成
05:19
We never evolved to navigate in the world of atoms.
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可於原子世界中漫游♫
05:22
If we had, our brains probably would perceive rocks
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若有的話, 我們的腦袋可能會將石頭理解為
05:25
as full of empty space.
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空空洞洞。石頭在我們的手裡感覺堅實不透
05:26
Rocks feel hard and impenetrable
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05:29
to our hands, precisely because objects like rocks and hands
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正正由於像石頭和手等物體
05:34
cannot penetrate each other.
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互不穿透。才能讓
05:36
It's therefore useful
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05:38
for our brains to construct notions like "solidity" and "impenetrability,"
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我們的腦袋構想出「堅實」和「不透」之觀念.
05:44
because such notions help us to navigate our bodies
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因為這些觀念讓我們的身體能夠
05:48
through the middle-sized world in which we have to navigate.
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於身處的「中世度」裡活動。
05:52
Moving to the other end of the scale,
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移向於尺度的另一端, 則我們的祖先根本無須
05:54
our ancestors never had to navigate through the cosmos
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以近光高速作宇航,
05:57
at speeds close to the speed of light.
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若他們有必要的話, 我們的頭腦就
06:00
If they had, our brains would be much better at understanding Einstein.
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更好明白愛因斯坦了。 我想以「中世度」
06:05
I want to give the name "Middle World" to the medium-scaled environment
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稱呼這中階環境 - 於其中我們已演化出生活能力。
06:10
in which we've evolved the ability to take act --
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這跟「中土大陸」無關.
06:12
nothing to do with "Middle Earth" --
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是 「中世度」. (哄笑)
06:14
Middle World.
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06:15
(Laughter)
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06:17
We are evolved denizens of Middle World,
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我們乃經演化入籍「中世度」的僑民, 這限制了
06:20
and that limits what we are capable of imagining.
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我們想像所及, 直覺上您會覺得很容易
06:23
We find it intuitively easy to grasp ideas like,
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掌握觀念如:
06:26
when a rabbit moves at the sort of medium velocity
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當兔子以 「一般免子和其他中世度物體運動之速度」 走動
06:29
at which rabbits and other Middle World objects move,
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06:32
and hits another Middle World object like a rock, it knocks itself out.
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然後跟中世度裡另一個物體如石頭碰上的話, 它將被撞倒昏掉。
06:37
May I introduce Major General Albert Stubblebine III,
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讓我介紹一下史達柏拜恩三世少將
06:43
commander of military intelligence in 1983.
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1983年之軍事情報指揮官
06:48
"...[He] stared at his wall in Arlington, Virginia, and decided to do it.
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他於維吉尼亞州的阿靈頓,盯著自己房牆,並決定要幹上了
06:54
As frightening as the prospect was, he was going into the next office.
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有多驚人, 可想而知 - 他要穿越至隔壁辦公室呢.
07:00
He stood up and moved out from behind his desk.
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他站起, 從檯後走出來
07:05
'What is the atom mostly made of?' he thought, 'Space.'
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「原子主要由啥構成?」 他在想,「是空間」.
07:09
He started walking. 'What am I mostly made of? Atoms.'
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他開始行動,「我主要由啥構成?」,「是原子」
07:15
He quickened his pace, almost to a jog now.
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他加快腳步, 幾乎在小跑了.
07:18
'What is the wall mostly made of?'
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「這牆主要由啥構成?」,「也不就是原子嘛」.
07:20
(Laughter)
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07:21
'Atoms!'
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07:23
All I have to do is merge the spaces.
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「我只需將所有空間融合。」
就這樣, 少將狠狠地讓鼻子扣上辦公室的牆去
07:28
Then, General Stubblebine banged his nose hard on the wall of his office.
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史達柏拜恩, 一個萬六士兵之統帥,
07:34
Stubblebine, who commanded 16,000 soldiers,
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07:38
was confounded by his continual failure to walk through the wall.
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為總是穿不過牆而困感不已
07:42
He has no doubt that this ability will one day be a common tool
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他毫不懷疑有一天這將成為軍火庫裡一件普通武器
07:45
in the military arsenal.
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誰敢跟會這個 (穿牆過壁) 的軍隊過不去?
07:46
Who would screw around with an army that could do that?"
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這是《花花公子》一篇文章
07:50
That's from an article in Playboy,
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07:52
which I was reading the other day.
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我前兩天看時讀到的。 (哄笑)®
07:54
(Laughter)
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07:56
I have every reason to think it's true;
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我有充份理由相信此文之真確性; 我那天翻《花花公子》
07:58
I was reading Playboy because I, myself, had an article in it.
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因為裡頭登了我自己的一篇文。 (哄笑)
08:01
(Laughter)
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08:07
Unaided human intuition, schooled in Middle World,
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在「中世度」裡練就之人類直覺, 若無其他協助
08:12
finds it hard to believe Galileo when he tells us
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難以相信伽理略所言:
08:15
a heavy object and a light object, air friction aside,
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若撇除磨擦阻抗, 下墜物不論輕重
08:18
would hit the ground at the same instant.
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都會同時觸地。
08:20
And that's because in Middle World, air friction is always there.
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那是因為於「中世度」裡, 空氣阻力經常存在.
08:24
If we'd evolved in a vacuum,
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倘若我們是乃於真空中演化過來, 就(自然)會預期
08:25
we would expect them to hit the ground simultaneously.
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它們於同一刻觸地。 又假若我們是
08:29
If we were bacteria,
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08:30
constantly buffeted by thermal movements of molecules,
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不斷讓粒子熱動流撞擊的細菌
08:33
it would be different.
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情況就不一樣了,
08:35
But we Middle-Worlders are too big to notice Brownian motion.
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但我們這些「中世度」住民太大了, 難以察見布朗(微粒子)運動。
08:38
In the same way, our lives are dominated by gravity,
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同樣地, 我們的生活受引力支配
08:42
but are almost oblivious to the force of surface tension.
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卻又幾乎對表面張力眊然不察。
08:45
A small insect would reverse these priorities.
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一隻小昆蟲卻會將這先後倒序。
08:50
Steve Grand -- he's the one on the left,
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Steve Grand - 左邊的那位
08:52
Douglas Adams is on the right.
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右邊的那位是 Douglas Adams -- Steve Grand 在他的書
08:54
Steve Grand, in his book, "Creation: Life and How to Make It,"
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《創造: 生命和如何創生》中, 嚴厲抨擊
08:57
is positively scathing about our preoccupation with matter itself.
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我們對事物本身總是先入為主.
09:03
We have this tendency to think that only solid, material things
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我們傾向只將硬梆梆的物質視為
09:07
are really things at all.
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僅有實體。 於真空中跌宕起伏的電磁波
09:09
Waves of electromagnetic fluctuation in a vacuum seem unreal.
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卻顯得不實在。
09:14
Victorians thought the waves had to be waves in some material medium:
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維多利亞時期的人總認為波必須載存於某種物質介體裡 -
09:19
the ether.
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以太。 但我們對實物感到惬意是因為
09:21
But we find real matter comforting
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09:23
only because we've evolved to survive in Middle World,
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我們是經過演化變成適合於「中間世界」存活,
09:27
where matter is a useful fiction.
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(在裡面)「物體」是很管用之設想
09:31
A whirlpool, for Steve Grand, is a thing with just as much reality
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對史提夫.格蘭特來說, 一股漩渦
09:35
as a rock.
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有著跟
09:37
In a desert plain in Tanzania,
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坦尚尼亞沙漠平原上一塊石塊的同等實在。
09:40
in the shadow of the volcano Ol Doinyo Lengai,
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於倫蓋火山 (Ol Doinyo Lengai) 之陰影下有個火山灰形成之小丘
09:43
there's a dune made of volcanic ash.
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09:46
The beautiful thing is that it moves bodily.
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優美的是它整體移動著
09:50
It's what's technically known as a "barchan,"
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那正是正式稱作「新月丘」的, 整個山丘
09:52
and the entire dune walks across the desert in a westerly direction
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向西方橫越沙漠
09:56
at a speed of about 17 meters per year.
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速度是每年17公尺。
09:59
It retains its crescent shape and moves in the direction of the horns.
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它維持著其弦月形態並向著(非洲之)角移動。
10:04
What happens is that the wind blows the sand up the shallow slope
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事實是,風會將沙吹過
沙丘另一端的淺坡, 接著
10:08
on the other side,
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10:09
and then, as each sand grain hits the top of the ridge, it cascades down
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每顆到挺達山脊的沙粒,
就會流瀉注入山丘之內
10:13
on the inside of the crescent,
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10:14
and so the whole horn-shaped dune moves.
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整號角形山丘就是這樣一直往前走。
10:19
Steve Grand points out that you and I are, ourselves,
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史提夫指出, 你我本身
10:23
more like a wave than a permanent thing.
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就更像一個浪, 而不是一個恒長不變的東西
10:26
He invites us, the reader,
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他邀請我們, 讀者, 去回想
10:28
to think of an experience from your childhood,
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一段童年體驗, 某些您清晰記得,
10:31
something you remember clearly,
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10:32
something you can see, feel, maybe even smell,
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某些您能見得, 能觸及, 甚至可嗅到,
10:35
as if you were really there.
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好比您此刻正處身其中的情況。
10:37
After all, you really were there at the time, weren't you?
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說來, 您確曾身處其中嚒?
10:41
How else would you remember it?
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若不, 您是如何記起?
10:43
But here is the bombshell: You weren't there.
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我要向您投彈了: 您當時並不在場!
10:46
Not a single atom that is in your body today
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在事件發生時,
10:48
was there when that event took place.
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您身上的所有原子不曾出現於當下。物質流徙
10:51
Matter flows from place to place
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10:53
and momentarily comes together to be you.
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並暫時聚合形成「您」而已。
10:56
Whatever you are, therefore,
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故此, 無論您現在是什麽, 都不再是
10:57
you are not the stuff of which you are made.
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組成那之前的您的「餡料」了。
11:01
If that doesn't make the hair stand up on the back of your neck,
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若這還不讓您毛管直豎,
11:04
read it again until it does, because it is important.
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多讀一遍直至您看懂吧, 因為實在太重要了!
11:09
So "really" isn't a word that we should use with simple confidence.
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所以,且別隨便說出 「事實上」 這詞
11:14
If a neutrino had a brain,
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假若一顆微中子有
11:16
which it evolved in neutrino-sized ancestors,
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一個由微中子祖先演化而來之腦袋,
11:19
it would say that rocks really do consist of empty space.
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它會說石頭 「事實上」由「空間」所構成
11:23
We have brains that evolved in medium-sized ancestors
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我們卻是有由「中形祖先」演化而來的腦袋,
11:26
which couldn't walk through rocks.
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無法從石頭穿過去
11:29
"Really," for an animal, is whatever its brain needs it to be
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對於動物來說, 所謂「真實」 就是其按腦袋所要求,
11:33
in order to assist its survival.
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的維生指涉
11:36
And because different species live in different worlds,
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由於不動物種生活於不同(大小領域)世界之中,
11:38
there will be a discomforting variety of "reallys."
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確有某些「現實」並不讓我們感到愜意。
11:45
What we see of the real world is not the unvarnished world,
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我們所見之現實世界並非原型
11:49
but a model of the world, regulated and adjusted by sense data,
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而是一個透過調適感知數據而建構,
11:53
but constructed so it's useful for dealing with the real world.
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並賴以有效處理現實之模式。
11:58
The nature of the model depends on the kind of animal we are.
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模式之性質取決於我們是那一種動物
12:02
A flying animal needs a different kind of model
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飛翔的動物需要一種
12:05
from a walking, climbing or swimming animal.
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有異於走動、爬動或游動物種的模式
12:08
A monkey's brain must have software capable of simulating
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猿猴的腦必須有軟體
12:12
a three-dimensional world of branches and trunks.
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模擬樹枝樹幹的三度空間
12:16
A mole's software for constructing models of its world will be customized
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鼴鼠建構其世界的軟體
當然是為「地底應用」而量身訂做的
12:20
for underground use.
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12:22
A water strider's brain doesn't need 3D software at all,
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水黽的腦袋完全無需3D軟體,
12:26
since it lives on the surface of the pond,
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因為牠只於生活於
12:28
in an Edwin Abbott flatland.
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Edwin Abbott 平原的湖面上
12:32
I've speculated that bats may see color with their ears.
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我曾推想蝙蝠或許能以聽覺分辨顏色
12:37
The world model that a bat needs in order to navigate
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蝙蝠賴以活動往來,
12:40
through three dimensions catching insects
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捕食昆蟲的世界模式
12:42
must be pretty similar to the world model that any flying bird --
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必然跟飛鳥的世界模式頗相近,
12:45
a day-flying bird like a swallow -- needs to perform the same kind of tasks.
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一隻於日間飛行的鳥如麻雀, 亦要
做同樣的工夫
12:50
The fact that the bat uses echoes in pitch darkness
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蝙蝠於漆黑中利用回聲
12:53
to input the current variables to its model,
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以輸入當下之變數
12:56
while the swallow uses light, is incidental.
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麻雀則用光, 兩者皆偶發
12:59
Bats, I've even suggested, use perceived hues, such as red and blue,
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我甚至提出, 蝙蝠利用意識到的色彩, 像紅和藍
13:04
as labels, internal labels, for some useful aspect of echoes --
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作標記, 作部分回聲可用處的「內標」 -
13:10
perhaps the acoustic texture of surfaces, furry or smooth and so on --
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例如平面的「聲質」、 毛狀、平滑...等等。
13:15
in the same way as swallows or indeed, we, use those perceived hues --
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麻雀, 以至我們亦確實以同樣方法
去感識顏色 - 紅彩, 藍彩...以此類推 -
13:20
redness and blueness, etc. --
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13:21
to label long and short wavelengths of light.
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為長短光波作標記。
13:24
There's nothing inherent about red that makes it long wavelength.
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紅色並無任何拜必須為長光波之本質
13:28
The point is that the nature of the model is governed by how it is to be used,
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要點是模式之性質取決於
其被如何應用, 而非其感官形態.
13:32
rather than by the sensory modality involved.
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13:37
J.B.S. Haldane himself had something to say about animals
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霍爾登有些
13:40
whose world is dominated by smell.
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關於那些被嗅覺支配其世界之動物的見解:
13:43
Dogs can distinguish two very similar fatty acids, extremely diluted:
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即使經過極端稀釋, 狗隻仍能分辨兩種極接近之脂肪酸:
13:49
caprylic acid and caproic acid.
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辛酸和已酸。
13:52
The only difference, you see,
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唯一分野, 是兩者其一。
13:53
is that one has an extra pair of carbon atoms in the chain.
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(分子)鍊上多出一對碳分子。
13:56
Haldane guesses that a dog would probably be able to place the acids
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霍爾登估計狗隻以嗅覺, 將兩種酸
14:01
in the order of their molecular weights by their smells,
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按其分子重量依次排序,
14:04
just as a man could place a number of piano wires
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正如一個人將一組琴弦
14:07
in the order of their lengths by means of their notes.
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按其音高排好長短次序。
14:11
Now, there's another fatty acid, capric acid,
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現在, 再有另一種叫癸酸
14:15
which is just like the other two,
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跟前兩種基本上一樣,
14:17
except that it has two more carbon atoms.
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只是多出兩個碳分子。
14:20
A dog that had never met capric acid would, perhaps,
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一頭狗即若從未碰過癸酸, 亦能
14:23
have no more trouble imagining its smell
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想像出其氣味, 情況不會難於我們
14:26
than we would have trouble imagining a trumpet, say,
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聽過吹號後想像
14:29
playing one note higher than we've heard a trumpet play before.
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吹出比剛聽過的高一個音。
14:36
Perhaps dogs and rhinos and other smell-oriented animals smell in color.
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或許狗隻犀牛和其他氣味主導的動物
是在嗅「色」。 這樣說來理論就
14:43
And the argument would be exactly the same as for the bats.
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就跟蝙蝠的情況無異了。
14:48
Middle World -- the range of sizes and speeds
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我們經演化適應之中間世界
14:51
which we have evolved to feel intuitively comfortable with --
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- 其範圍裡的大小和速度
14:55
is a bit like the narrow range of the electromagnetic spectrum
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有點像我們於窄幅電磁譜上
14:59
that we see as light of various colors.
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將光看成不同顏色
15:02
We're blind to all frequencies outside that,
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除非借助儀器,
15:04
unless we use instruments to help us.
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否則譜外頻率我們根本就看不到。
15:09
Middle World is the narrow range of reality
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我們將中間世界裡的片面現實認定為正常
15:12
which we judge to be normal, as opposed to the queerness
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超小/超巨和超速世界的一切
15:15
of the very small, the very large and the very fast.
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則相對看成詭異。
15:20
We could make a similar scale of improbabilities;
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我們可以為「不可能性」作個類似量度
15:22
nothing is totally impossible.
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沒有甚麼是完全不可能的。
15:25
Miracles are just events that are extremely improbable.
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奇蹟可說成是「極端不可能的事件」而矣。
15:29
A marble statue could wave its hand at us;
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一個石像可能正在向我們招手 - 組成其
15:32
the atoms that make up its crystalline structure
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晶體結構的原子確是在前後顛動
15:34
are all vibrating back and forth anyway.
262
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15:37
Because there are so many of them,
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由於數量極多,
15:38
and because there's no agreement among them
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其中又並沒一致之
15:41
in their preferred direction of movement,
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作用方向, 之所以我們眼見的
15:43
the marble, as we see it in Middle World, stays rock steady.
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是「中間世界」裡一尊穩坐著的石像。
15:47
But the atoms in the hand could all just happen to move
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可其手裡的原子卻正
15:49
the same way at the same time, and again and again.
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同時照樣反覆在移動。
15:52
In this case, the hand would move,
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按此, 手會有動作, 我們會看到它向我們揮動。
15:54
and we'd see it waving at us in Middle World.
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但在「中間世界」裡跟這相悖之種種是如許不計其數,
15:57
The odds against it, of course, are so great
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16:00
that if you set out writing zeros at the time of the origin of the universe,
272
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多得好比您由宇宙起始一刻開始畫 0
到此時此刻
16:05
you still would not have written enough zeros to this day.
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您還沒有畫上足夠的 0 那樣多。
16:09
Evolution in Middle World has not equipped us
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16:12
to handle very improbable events; we don't live long enough.
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於中間世界裡的演化並沒有裝備我們去處理
極度不可能的情境; 我們根本活得不夠久。
16:16
In the vastness of astronomical space and geological time,
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於巨大無垠之天際和時空裡
16:21
that which seems impossible in Middle World
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那些於「中間世界」看來不可能的
16:24
might turn out to be inevitable.
278
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可都變得理所當然了。
16:28
One way to think about that is by counting planets.
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考量這個的一個方法是點數星星.
16:31
We don't know how many planets there are in the universe,
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我們不知道宇宙中確實總共有多小行星,
16:34
but a good estimate is about 10 to the 20, or 100 billion billion.
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合理估計是10的20次方, 或一億萬億顆.
16:38
And that gives us a nice way to express our estimate of life's improbability.
282
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這可算是我們對於生命之「不可能性」
一個不錯的表述。
16:44
We could make some sort of landmark points along a spectrum of improbability,
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這可能會於看來像電磁波譜
的「不可能性譜表」 上
16:48
which might look like the electromagnetic spectrum we just looked at.
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4276
留下某些記號吧。
16:53
If life has arisen only once on any --
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2841
若生命只曾冒起一次
16:57
life could originate once per planet, could be extremely common
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我意思是, 生命若於每顆行星都冒起一次
則可算是極尋常, 但若生命的出現乃每顆恆星,
17:03
or it could originate once per star
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2564
17:05
or once per galaxy or maybe only once in the entire universe,
288
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4992
或每個星系, 甚或整個宇宙的單一事件,
17:10
in which case it would have to be here.
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則我們相信正正身處其中。而天上某處
17:12
And somewhere up there would be the chance
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2051
17:14
that a frog would turn into a prince,
291
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1801
青蛙可變成王子
17:16
and similar magical things like that.
292
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2881
種種類似奇事都可以發生
17:20
If life has arisen on only one planet in the entire universe,
293
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若生命於整個宇宙中只曾於一個行星冒起
17:24
that planet has to be our planet, because here we are talking about it.
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那行星就是我們的地球, 因為我們正在此討論其事 !
17:28
And that means that if we want to avail ourselves of it,
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意思是若我們作如是想
17:30
we're allowed to postulate chemical events in the origin of life
296
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3837
則我們大可就生命起始之化學情狀作出假設
17:34
which have a probability as low as one in 100 billion billion.
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3880
其可能性低於億萬億分之一
17:39
I don't think we shall have to avail ourselves of that,
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我並不認為我們該這樣做
17:41
because I suspect that life is quite common in the universe.
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2967
因為我估計宇宙中生機處處
17:44
And when I say quite common, it could still be so rare
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3038
我雖說普遍, 但一個生命島跟另一個遇上的機會
17:47
that no one island of life ever encounters another,
301
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4125
卻仍是極其稀有的。
17:51
which is a sad thought.
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1580
這想起來真有點悲傷
17:54
How shall we interpret "queerer than we can suppose?"
303
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3263
「比我們能想像的更離奇」該如何詮釋呢?
17:58
Queerer than can in principle be supposed,
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2255
比「基本上能想像的」離奇,
18:00
or just queerer than we can suppose, given the limitations
305
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3438
或「比我們有限的大腦所能想像的更奇」
18:04
of our brain's evolutionary apprenticeship in Middle World?
306
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4262
(我們經演化所得「中間世界」大腦)
18:09
Could we, by training and practice,
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1854
我們可通過訓練和實習
18:10
emancipate ourselves from Middle World
308
1090878
2190
擺脫中間世界之囿限, 而獲取對「極少和極大」之某些直覺的,
18:13
and achieve some sort of intuitive as well as mathematical understanding
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4643
甚或數學算計的理解麼?
18:17
of the very small and the very large?
310
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2139
我真的不知道答案。
18:19
I genuinely don't know the answer.
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18:22
I wonder whether we might help ourselves to understand, say, quantum theory,
312
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3634
我懷疑我們是否可幫助自己瞭解, 譬如說,
18:25
if we brought up children to play computer games
313
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3260
量子理論,
18:29
beginning in early childhood,
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1582
方法是以從少培養孩子玩一些
18:30
which had a make-believe world of balls going through two slits on a screen,
315
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3921
有波波穿梭於裡二維虛擬世界的電腦遊戲
18:34
a world in which the strange goings-on of quantum mechanics were enlarged
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其中量子力學的種種奇怪活動
於電腦的虛擬世界中被放大
18:38
by the computer's make-believe,
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18:40
so that they became familiar on the Middle-World scale of the stream.
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於是他們(即使)於中間世界的流程上亦逐漸(對量子微世道)熟悉起來。
18:44
And similarly, a relativistic computer game,
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同樣地, 一個於屏幕上展示「勞侖茲收縮變換」的
18:46
in which objects on the screen manifest the Lorentz contraction, and so on,
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「相對論」電玩, 依此類推,
18:52
to try to get ourselves -- to get children into the way of thinking about it.
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以嘗試將我們引帶至該種思考方式 -
領帶孩子進入(積極)思考的路徑上
18:57
I want to end by applying the idea of Middle World
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我想將 「中間世界」的觀點
19:01
to our perceptions of each other.
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應用於我們的相互觀照上
19:03
Most scientists today subscribe to a mechanistic view of the mind:
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現時大部分科學家都認同理智乃機械性的看法:
19:08
we're the way we are because our brains are wired up as they are,
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我們的所有舉措思路, 都早已鋪設於我們的腦袋中
19:11
our hormones are the way they are.
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我們(體內)的荷爾蒙亦不外如是(種種化學激素)
19:13
We'd be different, our characters would be different,
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我們的神經結構或生理化學若有所不同,
19:15
if our neuro-anatomy and our physiological chemistry were different.
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我們就是不一樣的人, 有不一樣的性格了.
19:19
But we scientists are inconsistent.
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但我們科學家並不一致, 若是的話,
19:22
If we were consistent,
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19:23
our response to a misbehaving person, like a child-murderer,
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那我們對一個, 譬如謀殺兒童犯的反應,
19:27
should be something like:
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就應該像是, 這單位有個壞掉了的部件,
19:28
this unit has a faulty component; it needs repairing.
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要修理處置了。 我們並不這樣說。
19:31
That's not what we say.
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19:33
What we say -- and I include the most austerely mechanistic among us,
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我們是說 - 我將我們當中持最嚴肅機械論的包括在內,
19:37
which is probably me --
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那個大可能正是我本人 -
19:38
what we say is, "Vile monster, prison is too good for you."
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我們會說的是, 「惡魔, 監禁實在太便宜你了」
19:42
Or worse, we seek revenge, in all probability thereby triggering
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甚或更糟, 我們會圖謀報復, 以致極可能觸發
19:46
the next phase in an escalating cycle of counter-revenge,
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下一波的升級循環報復,
19:49
which we see, of course, all over the world today.
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這種現象於當今世界觸目皆是。
19:52
In short, when we're thinking like academics,
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簡言之, 當我們像學者一樣地思考時,
19:54
we regard people as elaborate and complicated machines,
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我們將人看成精密複雜的機體,
19:58
like computers or cars.
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像電腦和汽車一樣, 但當我們恢復人性立場時
20:00
But when we revert to being human,
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20:02
we behave more like Basil Fawlty, who, we remember,
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我們就變得更像 Basil Fawlty, 我們都記得
20:06
thrashed his car to teach it a lesson,
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他在《美食夜》—片裡, 將開不動的車子砸了
20:08
when it wouldn't start on "Gourmet Night."
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為要給它一個教訓 ! (哄笑)
20:10
(Laughter)
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20:12
The reason we personify things like cars and computers
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我們之所以將車和電腦等物件擬人化
20:16
is that just as monkeys live in an arboreal world
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就正如猴子活在樹上
20:19
and moles live in an underground world
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鼴鼠活於地下
20:22
and water striders live in a surface tension-dominated flatland,
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大水黽活在受制於表面張力的一種平面 (指水面)
20:26
we live in a social world.
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我們則活在社區, 於人海中游過 -
20:28
We swim through a sea of people --
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20:30
a social version of Middle World.
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一種群居模式的中間世界
20:33
We are evolved to second-guess the behavior of others
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因著總要猜度其它人的行為表現
20:37
by becoming brilliant, intuitive psychologists.
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我們都演化成精明而深具具覺的心理專家。
20:41
Treating people as machines
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將人看作機械
20:42
may be scientifically and philosophically accurate,
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或許於科學及哲理而言俱屬正確,
20:46
but it's a cumbersome waste of time
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但這將讓要推想人家下一步將幹啥的事兒
20:48
if you want to guess what this person is going to do next.
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變得費時之極.
20:52
The economically useful way to model a person
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要將一個人扼要定位
20:55
is to treat him as a purposeful, goal-seeking agent
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是視之為一個具目的, 有所求,
20:58
with pleasures and pains, desires and intentions,
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有喜有悲, 有想望,
21:01
guilt, blame-worthiness.
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罪疚, 可責性,
21:03
Personification and the imputing of intentional purpose
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人格化及歸因於有意圖
21:07
is such a brilliantly successful way to model humans,
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是描模人類的妙法,
21:11
it's hardly surprising the same modeling software
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難怪同一個想像方式
21:14
often seizes control when we're trying to think about entities
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經常於我們設想不相容實體
21:18
for which it's not appropriate, like Basil Fawlty with his car
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如 [巴素和他的車] 時就作主導了
21:21
or like millions of deluded people, with the universe as a whole.
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[千百萬惑民相對於這宇宙] 亦如是. (哄笑)
21:26
(Laughter)
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21:29
If the universe is queerer than we can suppose,
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若宇宙真的是比我們能想像的更離奇詭異,
21:32
is it just because we've been naturally selected
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那只是因為我們是經由物競天擇所變成
21:34
to suppose only what we needed to suppose
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只利便我們於「更新世時期」 的非洲存活
21:37
in order to survive in the Pleistocene of Africa?
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的需要作想像?
21:40
Or are our brains so versatile and expandable that we can train ourselves
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還是我們的腦袋實在太靈太活以至我們可
可訓練自己突破演化的框框?
21:46
to break out of the box of our evolution?
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21:49
Or finally, are there some things in the universe so queer
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又或, 最後, 宇宙中可有些甚麼是離奇到
21:54
that no philosophy of beings, however godlike, could dream them?
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任何人, 無論多神, 其思想亦無從想像?
22:00
Thank you very much.
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22:01
(Applause)
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謝謝各位。
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