Why the universe seems so strange | Richard Dawkins

Prevoditelj: Leona Grujić Recezent: Sanda Liker

My title: "Queerer than we can suppose: the strangeness of science."

Moj naslov: "Čudnije no što možemo pretpostaviti - čudnovatost znanosti"

"Queerer than we can suppose" comes from J.B.S. Haldane, the famous biologist,

"Čudnije no što možemo pretpostaviti" citat je slavnog biologa J. B. S. Haldanea,

who said, "Now, my own suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer

koji je izjavio "Slutim da svemir nije samo čudniji no što pretpostavljamo,

than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.

već je čudniji nego što uopće možemo pretpostaviti.

I suspect that there are more things in heaven and earth

Slutim da postoji više stvari na nebu i zemlji

than are dreamed of, or can be dreamed of, in any philosophy."

nego što filozofija zamišlja, ili uopće može zamisliti."

Richard Feynman compared the accuracy of quantum theories --

Richard Feynman usporedio je preciznost kvantnih teorija -

experimental predictions --

eksperimentalnih predviđanja -

to specifying the width of North America to within one hair's breadth of accuracy.

s određivanjem širine S. Amerike s odstupanjem od širine jedne vlasi.

This means that quantum theory has got to be, in some sense, true.

To znači da kvantna teorija mora u neku ruku biti istinita.

Yet the assumptions that quantum theory needs to make

Ali pretpostavke koje kvantna teorija mora imati

in order to deliver those predictions are so mysterious

kako bi dostavila ta predviđanja su toliko tajanstvene

that even Feynman himself was moved to remark,

da su navele samog Feynmana da izjavi,

"If you think you understand quantum theory,

"Ako mislite da razumijete kvantnu teoriju,

you don't understand quantum theory."

ne razumijete kvantnu teoriju."

It's so queer that physicists resort to one or another

Teorija je toliko čudna da fizičari pribjegavaju različitim

paradoxical interpretation of it.

paradoksalnim interpretacijama.

David Deutsch, who's talking here, in "The Fabric of Reality,"

David Deutsch, koji izlaže ovdje, u "Tkanju stvarnosti",

embraces the many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory,

prihvaća interpretaciju o mnoštvu svjetova,

because the worst that you can say about it

jer najgore što možete reći o njoj

is that it's preposterously wasteful.

jest da je besmisleno rastrošna.

It postulates a vast and rapidly growing number of universes existing in parallel,

Ona postulira ogroman i rastući broj paralelnih svemira

mutually undetectable,

koji su međusobno nevidljivi,

except through the narrow porthole of quantum mechanical experiments.

osim kroz uski prozorčić eksperimenata kvantne mehanike.

And that's Richard Feynman.

To je Richard Feynman.

The biologist Lewis Wolpert believes

Biolog Lewis Wolpert vjeruje

that the queerness of modern physics

da je čudnovatost moderne fizike

is just an extreme example.

samo ekstremni primjer.

Science, as opposed to technology,

Znanost, za razliku od tehnologije,

does violence to common sense.

nasilno pobija zdrav razum.

Every time you drink a glass of water, he points out,

Svaki put kad popijete čašu vode, primjećuje Wolpert,

the odds are that you will imbibe at least one molecule

postoji vjerojatnost da ćete popiti barem jednu molekulu

that passed through the bladder of Oliver Cromwell.

koja je prošla kroz mjehur Olivera Cromwella.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's just elementary probability theory.

To je elementarna teorija vjerojatnosti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

The number of molecules per glassful is hugely greater

Broj molekula u jednoj čaši je mnogo veći

than the number of glassfuls, or bladdersful, in the world.

od broja čaša, ili mjehura u svijetu.

And of course, there's nothing special about Cromwell or bladders --

Naravno, nema ništa posebno u Cromwellu ili mjehurima -

you have just breathed in a nitrogen atom

upravo ste udahnuli atom dušika

that passed through the right lung of the third iguanodon

koji je prošao kroz desno plućno krilo trećeg iguanodona

to the left of the tall cycad tree.

s lijeve strane visokog drveta cikade.

"Queerer than we can suppose."

"Čudnije no što pretpostavljamo."

What is it that makes us capable of supposing anything,

Što nas to čini sposobnima da pretpostavimo bilo što,

and does this tell us anything about what we can suppose?

i može li nam to reći išta o tome što uopće možemo pretpostaviti?

Are there things about the universe that will be forever beyond our grasp,

Postoje stvari u vezi svemira koje će zauvijek ostati izvan našeg poimanja,

but not beyond the grasp of some superior intelligence?

ali ne i izvan poimanja neke više inteligencije?

Are there things about the universe

Postoje li stvari u vezi svemira

that are, in principle, ungraspable by any mind,

koje po definiciji ne može pojmiti nijedan um,

however superior?

ma kako superioran?

The history of science has been one long series of violent brainstorms,

Povijest znanosti je jedan dugi niz nasilnih umnih oluja,

as successive generations have come to terms with

dok se sukcesivne generacije pokušavaju pomiriti

increasing levels of queerness in the universe.

sa sve većom čudnovatosti svemira.

We're now so used to the idea that the Earth spins,

Danas smo toliko navikli na ideju da se Zemlja okreće,

rather than the Sun moves across the sky,

a ne da se Sunce kreće po nebu.

it's hard for us to realize

Teško nam je razumjeti

what a shattering mental revolution that must have been.

kakva je potresna mentalna revolucija to bila.

After all, it seems obvious that the Earth is large and motionless,

Naposljetku, čini se očitim da je Zemlja golema i nepomična,

the Sun, small and mobile.

a Sunce malo i pokretno.

But it's worth recalling Wittgenstein's remark on the subject:

Ali vrijedi se prisjetiti Wittgensteinovog komentara.

"Tell me," he asked a friend, "why do people always say

"Reci mi," pitao je prijatelja, "zašto ljudi uvijek kažu

it was natural for man to assume that the Sun went 'round the Earth,

da je bilo prirodno pretpostaviti da se Sunce okreće oko Zemlje,

rather than that the Earth was rotating?"

umjesto da se Zemlja okreće?"

And his friend replied, "Well, obviously,

Prijatelj je odvratio: "Pa, očito

because it just looks as though the Sun is going round the Earth."

zato što naprosto izgleda kao da se Sunce okreće oko Zemlje."

Wittgenstein replied, "Well, what would it have looked like

Wittgenstein je odvratio: "Pa, kako bi izgledalo da

if it had looked as though the Earth was rotating?"

izgleda kao da se Zemlja okreće?"

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Science has taught us, against all intuition,

Znanost nas je naučila, protivno svakoj intuiciji,

that apparently solid things, like crystals and rocks,

da se naizgled čvrste stvari, poput kristala i stijena,

are really almost entirely composed of empty space.

sastoje gotovo u potpunosti od praznog prostora.

And the familiar illustration is the nucleus of an atom

Poznata ilustracija je atomska jezgra

is a fly in the middle of a sports stadium,

kao muha usred sportskog stadiona,

and the next atom is in the next sports stadium.

a idući atom je u idućem sportskom stadionu.

So it would seem the hardest, solidest, densest rock

Dakle, čini se da je najtvrđi, najsolidniji, najgušći kamen

is really almost entirely empty space,

zapravo gotovo u potpunosti prazan prostor,

broken only by tiny particles so widely spaced they shouldn't count.

isprekidan samo sićušnim česticama toliko razdvojenim da se ni ne računaju.

Why, then, do rocks look and feel solid and hard and impenetrable?

Zašto onda vidimo i osjećamo kamen kao čvrst, tvrd i neprobojan?

As an evolutionary biologist, I'd say this: our brains have evolved

Kao evolucijski biolog, rekao bih ovo: naši mozgovi su se razvili

to help us survive within the orders of magnitude, of size and speed

da nam pomognu preživjeti unutar redova dimenzija, veličina i brzina

which our bodies operate at.

u kojima operiraju naša tijela.

We never evolved to navigate in the world of atoms.

Nikad se nismo razvili da navigiramo svijet atoma.

If we had, our brains probably would perceive rocks

Da jesmo, naši bi mozgovi vjerojatno vidjeli kamen

as full of empty space.

kao pun praznog prostora.

Rocks feel hard and impenetrable

Kamenje se čini tvrdo i neprobojno

to our hands, precisely because objects like rocks and hands

našim rukama upravo zato što objekti poput kamenja i ruku

cannot penetrate each other.

ne mogu prodrijeti jedni u druge.

It's therefore useful

Stoga je korisno

for our brains to construct notions like "solidity" and "impenetrability,"

za naše mozgove da konstruiraju koncepte poput "čvrstoće" i "neprobojnosti"

because such notions help us to navigate our bodies

jer nam ti koncepti pomažu da se krećemo svojim tijelima

through the middle-sized world in which we have to navigate.

kroz svijet srednje veličine kroz koji se moramo kretati.

Moving to the other end of the scale,

Kad prijeđemo na drugu stranu skale,

our ancestors never had to navigate through the cosmos

naši preci nikad nisu morali navigirati kroz kozmos

at speeds close to the speed of light.

brzinama bliskim brzini svjetlosti.

If they had, our brains would be much better at understanding Einstein.

Da jesu, naši mozgovi bi mnogo bolje razumjeli Einsteina.

I want to give the name "Middle World" to the medium-scaled environment

Želim dati ime "Međusvijet" srednje velikoj okolini

in which we've evolved the ability to take act --

u kojoj smo razvili sposobnost djelovanja -

nothing to do with "Middle Earth" --

to nema nikakve veze s Međuzemljem -

Međusvijet.

Middle World.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

We are evolved denizens of Middle World,

Mi smo evoluirani stanovnici Međusvijeta

and that limits what we are capable of imagining.

i to ograničava našu sposobnost zamišljanja.

We find it intuitively easy to grasp ideas like,

Intuitivno zahvaćamo ideje kao,

when a rabbit moves at the sort of medium velocity

kad se zec kreće srednjom brzinom

at which rabbits and other Middle World objects move,

kojom se zečevi i ostale stvari u Međusvijetu kreću,

and hits another Middle World object like a rock, it knocks itself out.

i zaleti se u drugu stvar u Međusvijetu, poput kamena, to ga ošamuti.

May I introduce Major General Albert Stubblebine III,

Predstavljam vam generala bojnika Alberta Stubblebinea III.,

commander of military intelligence in 1983.

zapovjednika vojnog obavještavanja 1983.

"...[He] stared at his wall in Arlington, Virginia, and decided to do it.

"Zurio je u zid svog ureda u Arlingtonu u Virginiji i odlučio to napraviti.

As frightening as the prospect was, he was going into the next office.

Iako je to bilo zastrašujuće, otići će u susjedni ured.

He stood up and moved out from behind his desk.

Ustao je i odmaknuo se od radnog stola."

'What is the atom mostly made of?' he thought, 'Space.'

"Od čega se sastoji atom?" pomislio je, "Od prostora."

He started walking. 'What am I mostly made of? Atoms.'

Počeo je hodati. "Od čega se ja sastojim? Od atoma."

He quickened his pace, almost to a jog now.

Ubrzao je korak, gotovo potrčao.

'What is the wall mostly made of?'

"Od čega se zid sastoji?"

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

'Atoms!'

"Atoma!"

All I have to do is merge the spaces.

Naprosto moram stopiti prazne prostore.

Then, General Stubblebine banged his nose hard on the wall of his office.

I tada je general bojnik Stubblebine udario nosom o zid svog ureda.

Stubblebine, who commanded 16,000 soldiers,

Stubblebine, koji je zapovijedao 16 000 vojnika,

was confounded by his continual failure to walk through the wall.

nije mogao shvatiti zašto ne može proći kroz zid.

He has no doubt that this ability will one day be a common tool

Ne sumnja da će ta sposobnost jednog dana biti

uobičajeno sredstvo u vojnom arsenalu.

in the military arsenal.

Who would screw around with an army that could do that?"

Tko bi se bakćao s vojskom koja to može napraviti?"

That's from an article in Playboy,

To je iz članka u Playboyju,

which I was reading the other day.

koji sam čitao neki dan.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I have every reason to think it's true;

Opravdano mislim da je članak istinit,

I was reading Playboy because I, myself, had an article in it.

čitao sam Playboy jer sam i sam imao članak u njemu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Unaided human intuition, schooled in Middle World,

Ljudska intuicija, školovana u Međusvijetu,

finds it hard to believe Galileo when he tells us

teško će povjerovati Galileu kad joj kaže

a heavy object and a light object, air friction aside,

da će teški i laki objekt, ako zanemarimo otpor zraka,

would hit the ground at the same instant.

udariti o tlo u istom trenutku.

And that's because in Middle World, air friction is always there.

To je zato što je u Međusvijetu otpor zraka uvijek prisutan.

If we'd evolved in a vacuum,

Da smo se razvili u vakuumu,

we would expect them to hit the ground simultaneously.

očekivali bismo da će istovremeno udariti o tlo.

If we were bacteria,

Da smo bakterije

constantly buffeted by thermal movements of molecules,

i da nas stalno bubetaju termalna kretanja molekula,

it would be different.

bilo bi drukčije.

But we Middle-Worlders are too big to notice Brownian motion.

Ali mi iz Međusvijeta smo preveliki da primijetimo Brownovo gibanje.

In the same way, our lives are dominated by gravity,

Isto tako, našim životima dominira gravitacija,

but are almost oblivious to the force of surface tension.

ali gotovo ni ne primjećujemo silu površinske napetosti.

A small insect would reverse these priorities.

Za sićušnog insekta bi važnost toga dvoga bila obrnuta.

Steve Grand -- he's the one on the left,

Steve Grand - on je onaj slijeva,

Douglas Adams is on the right.

Doulgas Adams je zdesna.

Steve Grand, in his book, "Creation: Life and How to Make It,"

Steve Grand u svojoj knjizi "Stvaranje: život i kako ga stvoriti"

is positively scathing about our preoccupation with matter itself.

nemilosrdno osuđuje našu zaokupljenost materijom.

We have this tendency to think that only solid, material things

Skloni smo misliti da su samo čvrste, materijalne stvari

are really things at all.

stvarno stvari.

Waves of electromagnetic fluctuation in a vacuum seem unreal.

Fluktuacija elektromagnetskih valova u vakuumu čini se nečim nestvarnim.

Victorians thought the waves had to be waves in some material medium:

Viktorijanci su smatrali da su valovi valovi u nekom materijalnom mediju:

the ether.

u eteru.

But we find real matter comforting

Ali stvarna materija nas umiruje

only because we've evolved to survive in Middle World,

jer smo se razvili za preživljavanje u Međusvijetu,

where matter is a useful fiction.

u kojem je materija korisna fikcija.

A whirlpool, for Steve Grand, is a thing with just as much reality

Vir je za Stevea Granda jednako stvaran

as a rock.

kao i kamen.

In a desert plain in Tanzania,

U pustinji u Tanzaniji,

in the shadow of the volcano Ol Doinyo Lengai,

u sjeni vulkana Ol Doinyo Lengai,

there's a dune made of volcanic ash.

postoji dina vulkanskog pepela.

The beautiful thing is that it moves bodily.

Najljepša stvar o njoj je da se fizički kreće.

It's what's technically known as a "barchan,"

To se tehnički naziva "barchan",

and the entire dune walks across the desert in a westerly direction

i čitava dina pomiče se po pustinji u smjeru zapada

at a speed of about 17 meters per year.

brzinom od otprilike 17 metara godišnje.

It retains its crescent shape and moves in the direction of the horns.

Zadržava svoj polumjesečasti oblik i kreće se u smjeru svojih vrhova.

What happens is that the wind blows the sand up the shallow slope

Vjetar podiže pijesak uz blagu kosinu

on the other side,

na drugu stranu,

and then, as each sand grain hits the top of the ridge, it cascades down

i kako svako zrnce pijeska dođe na vrh brijega, slijeva se

on the inside of the crescent,

u unutrašnjost polumjeseca,

and so the whole horn-shaped dune moves.

i tako se cijela rogata dina kreće.

Steve Grand points out that you and I are, ourselves,

Steve Grand podsjeća da smo i vi i ja

more like a wave than a permanent thing.

sličniji valu, nego trajnoj stvari.

He invites us, the reader,

Poziva nas čitatelje

to think of an experience from your childhood,

da pomislimo na iskustvo iz djetinjstva,

something you remember clearly,

nešto čega se jasno sjećate,

something you can see, feel, maybe even smell,

nešto što možete vidjeti, osjetiti, možda i namirisati,

as if you were really there.

kao da ste stvarno tamo.

After all, you really were there at the time, weren't you?

Naposljetku, jednom ste i bili tamo, niste li?

How else would you remember it?

Kako biste se inače sjećali?

But here is the bombshell: You weren't there.

Ali evo iznenađenja: niste bili tamo.

Not a single atom that is in your body today

Nijedan jedini atom iz vašeg današnjeg tijela

was there when that event took place.

nije bio tamo kad se to dogodilo.

Matter flows from place to place

Materija teče od mjesta do mjesta

and momentarily comes together to be you.

i samo se na trenutak spoji u vas.

Whatever you are, therefore,

Što god da jeste, stoga,

you are not the stuff of which you are made.

niste tvar od koje ste napravljeni.

If that doesn't make the hair stand up on the back of your neck,

Ako od toga ne osjetite jezu,

read it again until it does, because it is important.

pročitajte to opet dok je ne osjetite, jer je važno.

So "really" isn't a word that we should use with simple confidence.

Dakle, "stvarno" nije riječ koju bismo trebali samopouzdano upotrebljavati.

If a neutrino had a brain,

Da neutrino ima mozak,

which it evolved in neutrino-sized ancestors,

koji se razvio u njegovim precima veličine neutrina,

it would say that rocks really do consist of empty space.

rekao bi da se kamenje stvarno sastoji od praznog prostora.

We have brains that evolved in medium-sized ancestors

Imamo mozgove koji su se razvili u precima srednje veličine

which couldn't walk through rocks.

koji nisu mogli prolaziti kroz kamenje.

"Really," for an animal, is whatever its brain needs it to be

"Stvarno", za životinju, jest što god njezin mozak treba

in order to assist its survival.

kako bi joj pomogao da preživi.

And because different species live in different worlds,

I zato što različite vrste žive u različitim svjetovima,

there will be a discomforting variety of "reallys."

postoji uznemirujuće mnogo "stvarnosti".

What we see of the real world is not the unvarnished world,

Ono što vidimo od stvarnog svijeta nije zapravo svijet,

but a model of the world, regulated and adjusted by sense data,

već model svijeta, reguliran i podešen osjetilnim podacima,

but constructed so it's useful for dealing with the real world.

ali konstruiran kako bi poslužio nošenju sa stvarnim svijetom.

The nature of the model depends on the kind of animal we are.

Priroda modela ovisi o tome koja ste životinja.

A flying animal needs a different kind of model

Leteća životinja treba drugačiji model

from a walking, climbing or swimming animal.

od životinje koja hoda, penje se ili pliva.

A monkey's brain must have software capable of simulating

Majmunov mozak mora imati softver koji može simulirati

a three-dimensional world of branches and trunks.

trodimenzionalni svijet grana i debla.

A mole's software for constructing models of its world will be customized

Krtičin softver za konstruiranje modela njezinog svijeta bit će prilagođen

for underground use.

za upotrebu u podzemlju.

A water strider's brain doesn't need 3D software at all,

Mozak barske skakalice uopće ne treba trodimenzionalni softver

since it lives on the surface of the pond,

jer ona živi na površini bare,

in an Edwin Abbott flatland.

kao u noveli "Flatland" Edwina Abbota.

I've speculated that bats may see color with their ears.

Spekulirao sam da šišmiši možda vide boje ušima.

The world model that a bat needs in order to navigate

Model svijeta koji šišmiš treba kako bi navigirao

through three dimensions catching insects

kroz tri dimenzije u lovu na kukce

must be pretty similar to the world model that any flying bird --

mora da je vrlo sličan onom koji ptica letačica,

a day-flying bird like a swallow -- needs to perform the same kind of tasks.

dnevna letačica poput lastavice - treba kako bi izvodila slične zadatke.

The fact that the bat uses echoes in pitch darkness

Činjenica da se šišmiši služe odjecima u mrklom mraku

to input the current variables to its model,

kako bi učitali trenutne varijable u svoj model,

while the swallow uses light, is incidental.

a lastavice za istu stvar koriste svjetlost, je sporedna.

Bats, I've even suggested, use perceived hues, such as red and blue,

Šišmiši, predložio sam, koriste vidljive nijanse, poput crvene i plave,

as labels, internal labels, for some useful aspect of echoes --

kao etikete, unutarnje etikete, za neke korisne aspekte odjeka -

perhaps the acoustic texture of surfaces, furry or smooth and so on --

možda za akustičku teksturu površine, za razliku dlakavo/glatko, i slično,

in the same way as swallows or indeed, we, use those perceived hues --

na isti način na koji lastavice, ili mi, koristimo te vidljive nijanse -

redness and blueness, etc. --

crvenilo, plavetnilo, itd. -

to label long and short wavelengths of light.

da obilježimo duge i kratke valne duljine svjetlosti.

There's nothing inherent about red that makes it long wavelength.

Nema ništa inheretno u crvenoj što bi je činilo dugom valnom duljinom.

The point is that the nature of the model is governed by how it is to be used,

Poanta je da je priroda modela određena načinom korištenja modela,

rather than by the sensory modality involved.

a ne senzornim modalitetom koji uključuje.

J.B.S. Haldane himself had something to say about animals

J. B. S. Haldane je isto imao nešto za reći o životinjama

whose world is dominated by smell.

čijim svijetom dominira miris.

Dogs can distinguish two very similar fatty acids, extremely diluted:

Psi mogu razlikovati dvije vrlo slične masne kiseline, u vrlo razrijeđenom obliku,

caprylic acid and caproic acid.

kaprilnu i kaproičnu kiselinu.

The only difference, you see,

Jedina razlika među njima

is that one has an extra pair of carbon atoms in the chain.

jest da jedna ima dodatni par ugljikovih atoma u lancu.

Haldane guesses that a dog would probably be able to place the acids

Haldane nagađa da pas vjerojatno može rasporediti kiseline

in the order of their molecular weights by their smells,

po njihovoj molekularnoj težini pomoću mirisa,

just as a man could place a number of piano wires

kao što čovjek može rasporediti žice klavira različite dužine

in the order of their lengths by means of their notes.

pomoću nota koje proizvode.

Now, there's another fatty acid, capric acid,

Postoji još jedna masna kiselina, kaprinska kiselina,

which is just like the other two,

koja je ista kao i ove dvije,

except that it has two more carbon atoms.

samo što ima dodatna dva ugljikova atoma.

A dog that had never met capric acid would, perhaps,

Pas koji se nikad nije susreo s kaprinskom kiselinom možda

have no more trouble imagining its smell

ne bi imao više problema sa zamišljanjem njezinog mirisa

than we would have trouble imagining a trumpet, say,

nego što bismo mi imali sa zamišljanjem trube

playing one note higher than we've heard a trumpet play before.

koja svira notu više od svih truba koje smo dosad čuli.

Perhaps dogs and rhinos and other smell-oriented animals smell in color.

Možda psi i nosorozi i druge životinje vođene mirisom mirišu u boji.

And the argument would be exactly the same as for the bats.

Argument bi bio jednak kao i za šišmiše.

Middle World -- the range of sizes and speeds

Međusvijet - raspon veličina i brzina

which we have evolved to feel intuitively comfortable with --

za koje smo se razvili da ih prepoznajemo -

is a bit like the narrow range of the electromagnetic spectrum

nalikuje uskom rasponu elektromagnetskog spektra

that we see as light of various colors.

koji mi vidimo kao svjetlo različitih boja.

We're blind to all frequencies outside that,

Ne vidimo nijednu frekvenciju izvan tog raspona,

unless we use instruments to help us.

osim uz pomoć instrumenata.

Middle World is the narrow range of reality

Međusvijet je uski raspon stvarnosti

which we judge to be normal, as opposed to the queerness

koji smatramo normalnim, u usporedbi s čudnovatosti

of the very small, the very large and the very fast.

vrlo malog, vrlo velikog i vrlo brzog.

We could make a similar scale of improbabilities;

Mogli bismo napraviti sličnu skalu nevjerojatnosti;

nothing is totally impossible.

ništa nije skroz nemoguće.

Miracles are just events that are extremely improbable.

Čuda su samo događaji koji su iznimno malo vjerojatni.

A marble statue could wave its hand at us;

Mramorni kip bi nam mogao mahnuti,

the atoms that make up its crystalline structure

atomi koji čine njegovu kristaličnu strukturu

are all vibrating back and forth anyway.

ionako neprestano titraju amo-tamo.

Because there are so many of them,

Zato što ih ima toliko puno,

and because there's no agreement among them

i zato što ne postoji slaganje među njima

in their preferred direction of movement,

što se tiče njihovog smjera kretanja,

the marble, as we see it in Middle World, stays rock steady.

mramor, kako ga mi vidimo u Međusvijetu, ostaje nepomičan.

But the atoms in the hand could all just happen to move

Ali atomi u kipovoj ruci bi se svi mogli pokrenuti

the same way at the same time, and again and again.

u istom smjeru u isto vrijeme, pa opet i opet.

In this case, the hand would move,

Tada bi se ruka pokrenula

and we'd see it waving at us in Middle World.

i vidjeli bismo kako nam maše u Međusvijetu.

The odds against it, of course, are so great

Vjerojatnost za to, naravno, je toliko mala

that if you set out writing zeros at the time of the origin of the universe,

da kad biste počeli pisati nule u vrijeme postanka svemira,

you still would not have written enough zeros to this day.

do danas ne biste napisali dovoljno nula.

Evolution in Middle World has not equipped us

Evolucija u Međusvijetu nije nas opremila

to handle very improbable events; we don't live long enough.

za nošenje s malo vjerojatnim događajima; ne živimo dovoljno dugo za to.

In the vastness of astronomical space and geological time,

U nepreglednosti astronomskog prostora i geološkog vremena,

that which seems impossible in Middle World

ono što se čini nemoguće u Međusvijetu

might turn out to be inevitable.

možda će ispasti neminovno.

One way to think about that is by counting planets.

Jedan način da razmišljate o tome je da brojite planete.

We don't know how many planets there are in the universe,

Ne znamo koliko planeta postoji u svemiru,

ali dobra procjena je 10 na 20-tu, ili 100 milijardi milijardi.

but a good estimate is about 10 to the 20, or 100 billion billion.

And that gives us a nice way to express our estimate of life's improbability.

A to nam daje dobar način da izrazimo procjenu nevjerojatnosti života.

We could make some sort of landmark points along a spectrum of improbability,

Mogli bismo označiti neke orijentire na spektru nevjerojatnosti,

which might look like the electromagnetic spectrum we just looked at.

koji bi mogao nalikovati elektromagnetskom spektru koji smo upravo vidjeli.

If life has arisen only once on any --

Da je život nastao samo jednom na bilo kojem -

life could originate once per planet, could be extremely common

život bi se mogao pojaviti jedanput po planetu, mogao bi biti vrlo uobičajen,

or it could originate once per star

ili bi se mogao pojaviti jedanput za svaku zvijezdu,

or once per galaxy or maybe only once in the entire universe,

ili za svaku galaksiju, ili možda jedanput za čitavi svemir,

in which case it would have to be here.

a u tom bi slučaju morao biti ovdje.

And somewhere up there would be the chance

I u jednom od tih života postojala bi šansa

that a frog would turn into a prince,

da se žaba pretvori u princa

and similar magical things like that.

i druge takve magične stvari.

If life has arisen on only one planet in the entire universe,

Ako je život nastao na samo jednom planetu u cijelom svemiru,

that planet has to be our planet, because here we are talking about it.

taj planet mora biti naš planet, jer smo upravo ovdje i pričamo o njemu.

And that means that if we want to avail ourselves of it,

A to znači da, ako to želimo iskoristiti,

we're allowed to postulate chemical events in the origin of life

možemo postulirati kemijske događaje prilikom postanka života

which have a probability as low as one in 100 billion billion.

čija je vjerojatnost vrlo niska, jednom u 100 milijardi milijarda.

I don't think we shall have to avail ourselves of that,

Ne mislim da ćemo se morati koristiti time,

because I suspect that life is quite common in the universe.

jer slutim da je život prilično česta pojava u svemiru.

And when I say quite common, it could still be so rare

A kad kažem prilično česta, i dalje bi mogao biti toliko rijedak

that no one island of life ever encounters another,

da nijedna oaza života nikad ne susretne drugu,

which is a sad thought.

što je vrlo tužna pomisao.

How shall we interpret "queerer than we can suppose?"

Kako protumačiti "čudnije no što možemo pretpostaviti"?

Queerer than can in principle be supposed,

Čudnije negoli se u principu može pretpostaviti,

or just queerer than we can suppose, given the limitations

ili samo čudnije nego što mi možemo pretpostaviti, zbog ograničenja

of our brain's evolutionary apprenticeship in Middle World?

evolucijskog naukovanja našeg mozga u Međusvijetu?

Could we, by training and practice,

Bismo li se uz vježbu i iskustvo

emancipate ourselves from Middle World

mogli osloboditi Međusvijeta

and achieve some sort of intuitive as well as mathematical understanding

i postići neku vrst intuitivnog, a ne samo matematičkog, razumijevanja

of the very small and the very large?

vrlo malog i vrlo velikog?

I genuinely don't know the answer.

Zaista ne znam odgovor na to pitanje.

I wonder whether we might help ourselves to understand, say, quantum theory,

Pitam se bi li nam olakšalo razumijevanje, recimo, kvantne teorije,

if we brought up children to play computer games

kad bismo odgajali djecu da igraju računalne igre

beginning in early childhood,

od ranog djetinjstva,

which had a make-believe world of balls going through two slits on a screen,

u kojima izmišljene loptice prolaze kroz dva proreza na zaslonu,

a world in which the strange goings-on of quantum mechanics were enlarged

svijet u kojem bi čudna odvijanja kvantne mehanike bila uvećana

by the computer's make-believe,

računalnim prividom,

so that they became familiar on the Middle-World scale of the stream.

kako bi postala bliska na međusvjetskoj veličini zaslona.

And similarly, a relativistic computer game,

Slično tome, relativistička računalna igrica,

in which objects on the screen manifest the Lorentz contraction, and so on,

u kojoj objekti na zaslonu prikazuju Lorentzovu kontrakciju, itd.,

to try to get ourselves -- to get children into the way of thinking about it.

kako bismo naveli sebe i svoju djecu na takav način razmišljanja.

I want to end by applying the idea of Middle World

Želio bih završiti s primjenom ideje Međusvijeta

to our perceptions of each other.

na našu percepciju jedni drugih.

Most scientists today subscribe to a mechanistic view of the mind:

Većina znanstvenika danas mehanistički pristupaju umu:

we're the way we are because our brains are wired up as they are,

mi smo takvi kakvi jesmo jer su nam mozgovi ustrojeni tako kako jesu,

our hormones are the way they are.

naši hormoni su takvi kakvi jesu.

We'd be different, our characters would be different,

Bili bismo drukčiji, naš karakter bi bio drukčiji,

if our neuro-anatomy and our physiological chemistry were different.

da su nam neuroanatomija i fiziološka kemija drukčije.

But we scientists are inconsistent.

Ali mi znanstvenici smo nedosljedni.

If we were consistent,

Kad bismo bili dosljedni,

our response to a misbehaving person, like a child-murderer,

naš odgovor lošoj osobi, poput ubojice djece,

should be something like:

trebao bi biti nešto kao:

this unit has a faulty component; it needs repairing.

ova jedinica ima neispravnu komponentu, treba popravak.

That's not what we say.

Ali ne kažemo to.

What we say -- and I include the most austerely mechanistic among us,

Kažemo - i to vrijedi i za najuvjerenijeg mehanista među nama,

which is probably me --

a to sam vjerojatno ja -

what we say is, "Vile monster, prison is too good for you."

kažemo, "Odurno čudovište, zatvor je predobar za tebe."

Or worse, we seek revenge, in all probability thereby triggering

Ili još gore, tražimo osvetu, čime vjerojatno pokrećemo

the next phase in an escalating cycle of counter-revenge,

sljedeću fazu u eskalirajućem ciklusu protuosvete,

which we see, of course, all over the world today.

što, naravno, danas vidimo posvuda po svijetu.

In short, when we're thinking like academics,

Ukratko, kad razmišljamo kao akademici,

we regard people as elaborate and complicated machines,

promatramo ljude kao složene strojeve,

like computers or cars.

poput računala ili automobila.

But when we revert to being human,

Ali kad razmišljamo kao ljudi,

we behave more like Basil Fawlty, who, we remember,

ponašamo se više kao Basil Fawlty, koji je, sjećamo se,

thrashed his car to teach it a lesson,

slupao auto da ga nauči lekciju

when it wouldn't start on "Gourmet Night."

kad se nije palio u epizodi "Gurmanska noć."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

The reason we personify things like cars and computers

Razlog zašto personificiramo stvari poput auta ili računala,

is that just as monkeys live in an arboreal world

jest zato što, kao što majmuni žive u svijetu grana

and moles live in an underground world

i krtice u podzemlju

and water striders live in a surface tension-dominated flatland,

i barske skakalice na ravnoj površini kojom vlada napetost,

we live in a social world.

mi živimo u socijalnom svijetu.

We swim through a sea of people --

Plivamo kroz more ljudi -

a social version of Middle World.

socijalna verzija Međusvijeta.

We are evolved to second-guess the behavior of others

Razvili smo se da preispitujemo ponašanje drugih

by becoming brilliant, intuitive psychologists.

tako što smo postali briljantni intuitivni psiholozi.

Treating people as machines

Tretiranje ljudi kao strojeva

may be scientifically and philosophically accurate,

možda je znanstveno i filozofski točno,

but it's a cumbersome waste of time

ali je naporni gubitak vremena

if you want to guess what this person is going to do next.

ako hoćete pogoditi što će osoba sljedeće napraviti.

The economically useful way to model a person

Ekonomski učinkovit način modeliranja osobe

is to treat him as a purposeful, goal-seeking agent

je da je tretiramo kao svrhovitog agenta koji ima cilj,

with pleasures and pains, desires and intentions,

koji ima užitke i boli, želje i namjere,

guilt, blame-worthiness.

koji osjeća krivnju i zavređuje krivnju.

Personification and the imputing of intentional purpose

Personifikacija i učitavanje svrhovite namjere

is such a brilliantly successful way to model humans,

je toliko briljantno uspješan način modeliranja ljudi

it's hardly surprising the same modeling software

da ne iznenađuje da taj isti softver za modeliranje

often seizes control when we're trying to think about entities

često preuzme kontrolu kad pokušavamo misliti o bićima

for which it's not appropriate, like Basil Fawlty with his car

za koje taj softver nije prikladan, kao Basil Fawlty sa svojim autom,

or like millions of deluded people, with the universe as a whole.

ili kao milijuni zabludjelih ljudi s čitavim svemirom.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

If the universe is queerer than we can suppose,

Ako je svemir čudniji nego što možemo pretpostaviti,

is it just because we've been naturally selected

je li takav samo zato što smo prirodno selektirani

to suppose only what we needed to suppose

da pretpostavljamo samo ono što moramo pretpostavljati

in order to survive in the Pleistocene of Africa?

kako bismo preživjeli u pleistocenu u Africi?

Or are our brains so versatile and expandable that we can train ourselves

Ili su naši mozgovi tako svestrani i rastezljivi da možemo uvježbati

to break out of the box of our evolution?

sami sebe da iskočimo iz naše evolucijske ladice?

Or finally, are there some things in the universe so queer

Ili, konačno, postoje li neke stvari u svemiru toliko čudne

that no philosophy of beings, however godlike, could dream them?

da nema filozofije bića, ma kako bogolikih, koja ih može zamisliti?

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)